Mini Theme 2165: MafiaSunny (Complete!)

[VP Baltar]

Me waiting for you bastards to deliver anything you promise me

[VP Baltar]

Actually, skies has posted like 20 times elsewhere on the site in the last few days.

Let's just do this. Y'all are torturing me.

VOTE: brighteningskies


Parting thoughts from me:

Top suspects for last scum feel like quite a bit of a toss up for me. If skies flips red, y'all should have enough yeets to figure it out. It's kind of fluctuating for me, but here as some general thoughts on everyone:

Ythan

- Obv town. He's gonna have to step up if I'm dead and sail this game to victory.

Haschel

- Really fluctuate with this guy. Both his hammers were terrible. Sometimes I get town vibes, but then he stops having time to play or whatever. Not outside the realm of being a dark horse scume.

duppin

- Find myself nodding when duppin talks, but the voting record isn't great. It also seems possible that one of him and Haschel is lying about their role.

Norra

- Her interactions with Reck were pretty suspicious, but I've been having more townie vibes today. Can't really decide where she lands on my meter. If skies flips scum, it might be less likely Noraa is. If she were, that would put all the scum on the TN wagon D2, which I find unlikely. It stinks we don't have anything off of jankofan D1 to help, but oh well.

Gamma

- Feels fairly town to me, though could be hard bussing his buddies? Post 1024 where he says to look at skies if Reck flips red is like prescient almost, so that's tripping me out. Especially since I don't think people had very strong scum reads on skies at that time? I can sort of see where he was coming from though. Also, in post 964, Gamma says he wouldn't want to go first in massclaim, even though he claimed VT and then was the first to mass claim today....weird. Gamma, feel free to answer both of these points before today ends if you're around.

[VP Baltar]

[ ]=========
=========[ ]

[VP Baltar]

if skies was not scum, someone would have hammered already.

[VP Baltar]

Ohhhhhhhhh yeah that makes sense. I agree with that but still think we should wait for skies to say something, anything before we hammer.

I'm guessing this will only happen after a prod and it won't be a fruitful comment. Let's just end this so we can move forward with the game. I feel pretty confident in this flip at this point.

[VP Baltar]

mod: can you prod skies please

[VP Baltar]

Huh. Are we in Xylo then?

[VP Baltar]

I'm going to hold back talking. I'd like the actual townies left to show so, also clearly my instincts have not been great this game.

Noraa is seeming more and more town.

[VP Baltar]

We should figure out who of duppin and Haschel should claim first as well.

[VP Baltar]

We should figure out who of duppin and Haschel should claim first as well.

Both have already hard claimed so I'm not understanding what you mean here? I think if either of them is town and lied about their role tho, they should be fessing that up right away. But other than that I don't see anything we can really do about that since they already claimed.

I don't mean their roles. I mean their night actions. It is possible one of them could catch the other in a lie. That being said, we'd need the town person to claim their result second for that to work.

In terms of Lylo/Xylo etc - they all mean the same thing: basically if we yeet wrong today, town loses the game. I haven't crunched the numbers, but I assume that is the case, hence the no kill last night.

[VP Baltar]

Yeah, it's xylo then.

6 alive, 1 yeet today
5 alive, 1 NK
4 alive, 2 scum 2 town

Scum win.

[VP Baltar]

No NK increases their odds of a misyeet today.

[VP Baltar]

Listen, if you're town today, put in work. There's no more room for lack of contribution, and I will be voting out lurkers.

[VP Baltar]

I’m kinda curious about something
Btw I’d prefer duppin claim his action first

Why duppin first?

[VP Baltar]

Ythan, who did you give a mask to last night?

I have more to say on this duppin situation, but I want to reread everything carefully on a computer.

Haschel, who is the scum pair in your mind.

[VP Baltar]

Ok, that seems to be all the claims. I visited Noraa last night, so I've got to be the miscellaneous action.

[VP Baltar]

Haschel, what were your N1 results exactly?

[VP Baltar]

No kill just doesn't make sense to me in general :/

Well, killing wouldn't have change the game state (It'd be Xylo regardless), and if they had killed, they risked getting soft seen by the MD or voyeur I guess?

The problem here is that maybe duppin is more of an actual risk to scum killing since he claims he can see motion? He'd technically be able to tell if Gamma or you were scum and carried out a kill.

If Haschel is town, he seems less able to catch scum.

[VP Baltar]

Noraa's analysis at the start of the day actually isn't too bad. Gamma does seem to be the common denominator in the Haschel-duppin mess. In some ways that almost feels like the safer yeet today even if it is obvious one of duppin-Haschel is lying.

[VP Baltar]

As in, Gamma feels like the safer yeet, if I buy Noraa town.

[VP Baltar]

scum to be in the VT claims, which I know it’s not.

You know that huh.

[VP Baltar]

Am I missing something or did they not kill because it's xylo regardless and there's a motion detector.

Right. The no kill in some ways makes the most sense if duppin is town. Though I think worrying about why the scum did that could be a fool's errand to some degree.

[VP Baltar]

Please do not lim outside me and Haschel.

Also I am unsure as to why you are suddenly townreading her. She could be town, but I dont think her posting now has been that town ans definitely not enough to lim outside. I feel her logic is a bit inconsistent; we know there is 1 scum between me and haschel, she believes that Gamma is always scum and she does not believe Gamma and Haschel are ever scumbuddies. If she is town then from her point of view I should always be the lim for today. Trying to lim outside simply due to some association logic that is in my opinion very questionable as in I dont think her association read is justified at all, to me comes across as the “easy” play for her to do as she doesnt really have to take a stance between me and Haschel and can just kind of justify voting on someone else due to “associations”. I think the most likely explanation is just that she is with Haschel but doesnt want to take too hard of a stance in me vs Haschel in case Haschel gets limmed. I could be wrong and would like to hear some more from her but yeah. I really need to sleep now though

I hear you. I'm thinking on it.

I think I'm finding her more town because 1) skies flipped town and she had the strongest associations there (granted, her reluctance on that wagon COULD be seen as knowing too much, but that feels reachy). 2) Her logic in her opening post today doesn't feel contrived. If I was town in her position, going for the common denominator (Gamma) does make some sense.

[VP Baltar]

I’m kinda curious about something
Btw I’d prefer duppin claim his action first

What were you curious about in this post?

[VP Baltar]

Are you saying because Noraa looked like scum with skies and skies was Town, you don’t think Noraa is scum? That’s just bad logic

I'm saying the game only solves correctly 1 way. Noraa doesn't fit as easily in that solve. If you think she does, please explain who her buddy is?

[VP Baltar]

Cooking dinner right now but after I come back I want to look at the Reck/Dr Pepper interactions a bit more.

I would guess there is almost nothing, but yeah let us know

[VP Baltar]

The core of my argument is that you are clearing a pairing of Gamma/Haschel for no apparent reason. This is what I asked you to elaborate on and you said you would but you did not. I need you to explain why you do not think they can be partners.

I'm interested in hearing this too

[VP Baltar]

Cooking dinner right now but after I come back I want to look at the Reck/Dr Pepper interactions a bit more.

Anything on this?

What are your thoughts on this Gamma debate?

[VP Baltar]

Between Gamma and Haschel, all I can really remember is maybe them being on the same wagon a few times but like ... that's it. The interactions are so few that I feel they aren't the solve otherwise rn it would seem very obvious it was them.

Huh? So you are excluding them because they don't have much interaction? I would think that makes them MORE likely

[VP Baltar]

Between Gamma and Haschel, all I can really remember is maybe them being on the same wagon a few times but like ... that's it. The interactions are so few that I feel they aren't the solve otherwise rn it would seem very obvious it was them.

Huh? So you are excluding them because they don't have much interaction? I would think that makes them MORE likely

wait why?

Scum often forget to focus genuine attention on their buddies because the entire thing is made up conflict.

[VP Baltar]

It's WIFOM of course

[VP Baltar]

It's a fair point. But it's all guess work too. I wouldn't overweight it in the sense of thinking they can never be partners here

[VP Baltar]

Awfully quiet Haschel.

[VP Baltar]

Duppin, you are really opposed to Gamma today? I mean,there is a possibility it is Gamma/Haschel here.

I'm having a hard time seeing Noraa as scum here, just being honest.

Ythan - can I get your in depth thoughts and instincts here?

[VP Baltar]

I have a hard time thinking gamma = noraa here.

Noraa is actually working here it seems. If she's scum, it's pretty good scum play.

[VP Baltar]

{ut, ythan, haschel}

I mean, what are the odds of scum!Haschel blurting out an explanation that makes town!reck less yeetable? Also, would scum!Haschel double confirm I'm town?

uhhh well scumHasch would know that im telling the truth about not getting hit with all the abilities people were claiming. and telling the truth is always a great way for scum to appear town.

if i'm scum in HC's position i absolutely come in with the extra context on the person about to get misyeeted bc then when i'm in presumable lylo (what're we calling lylo) tomorrow, at 3:4, that's one person off the table. or at least less likely to be in consideration than other people.

that being said, i do think of that list, ythan makes the most sense for scum on play/actions alone. but id rather yeet from the other list first since i think there's a higher cluster of likely scum there.

Worth remembering that Haschel's results really did almost save Reck.

Also, Reck barely talks about gamma at all, but definitely tried to get Norra and duppin's slot elimmed. Could be bussing, but scum had no strong incentive to bus at that point imo.

[VP Baltar]

From my perspective, you both could be town here.

Duppin feels like Haschel is confirmed scum because of the counterclaim. Noraa feels Gamma is confirmed scum because he's got to be in the pairing if Ythan and I are both town.

Duppin, my view is slightly more sympathetic to Noraa's perspective because I don't know if you're town for sure or not.

That's basically where we are.

[VP Baltar]

Ythan - can I get your in depth thoughts and instincts here?

After work I'll do this.

I guess I should inquire how many hours it is until work ends

[VP Baltar]

I just walked in the door at home. I'll do this once I can settle down.

When did I get so busy.

No prob. I didn't want to assume your work schedule.


On a separate note, Noraa, we should look at Haschel's night actions and see if he said anything that wouldn't automatically be clear from being scum. I think that entire N1 fiasco could be figured out by the scum team and faked as a voyeur

[VP Baltar]

This feels like some serious flailing from gamma but who the hell knows this game bc so many town have played scummy af

[VP Baltar]

Drunk and feel like voting gamma

[VP Baltar]

will certainly hammer either one of them if the opportunity arises. I

You cheeky bastard

[VP Baltar]

There are some scenarios I want to talk through today, but I might vote by day's end if I have time to get through all my stuff. Ythan, if you have more to add later, I'd like to hear it. Still not quite sure where you are settling on everything

[VP Baltar]

i agree with the sentiment that Gamma looks slightly worse than noraa after these posts - but I am still not voting on either one.

solve me and haschel today and noraa and gamma tomorrow

........why

Because it's 100% accurate from his perspective if he is town, whereas gamma is somewhere between 50 and 99% from his perspective.

Or he is scum. Either way, it makes some sense, but is also semi-irrelevant if Ythan and I vote Gamma

[VP Baltar]

There are some scenarios I want to talk through today, but I might vote by day's end if I have time to get through all my stuff. Ythan, if you have more to add later, I'd like to hear it. Still not quite sure where you are settling on everything

vp? can I get a followup on this?

For sure. I'm just at work rn and it's been a crazy busy morning. I will definitely get it done today though! Just might be like 2-6 hours before I can focus solely on this game.

[VP Baltar]

okay yeah actually VP your reads rn don't line up at all with what you seem to have been thinking prior? Where is the continuity of your thought process my dude?

I'm just here to find scum. If my previous thoughts were wrong (and they were! See skies, tn flips), then I need to evaluate why that was and make adjustments.

That's not scummy at all. That's mental flexibility.

I will walk you through my thoughts shortly. Wrapping up work now and can dedicate some time here

[VP Baltar]

please try to do it before 7:30 as that's when I expect my ability to respond to fall off

What timezone? I'm starting now. Your primary question is how I'm arriving at you as possibly the best yeet today? What else can I answer?

[VP Baltar]

@VP I'd really like to know what the full logic you're working with is, because I really don't understand why the skies flip makes Noraa town, and why you're so obsessed with targeting me. You've pretty much singularly expressed interest in eliminating me, which is not a town mindset so I'm baffled how it's the one you have, seeing as you're confirmed town.

OK, hopefully you're still around, but here is a quick overview of how I'm arriving at you.

Yesterday, I did think skies + Noraa made logical sense in terms of a buddy pair. Their play around each other was not very aggressive and Noraa was defending skies pretty hard before his flip. That alone doesn't make her town, but if you reread that part of the day, you could interpret it as town having second thoughts.

Then today, Noraa opens the day with a pretty extensive analysis of the game state that oozes town. She thoroughly evaluates you, duppin and Haschel, and arrives at the very logical conclusion that you have to be scum since those two are SUPER unlikely to be buddies. It's a perspective that screams town mentality.

Last, Noraa has continued to engage today and try to sort the game. You can see this in her agonizing over duppin/Haschel and which one is scum out of them.

The reason I'm focusing on you as the yeet is that all makes sense. I agree that you're the common denominator, and you're not exactly doing anything to disprove that. Saying me suspecting you is "not a town mindset" is about the worst argument I've heard in awhile. The burden isn't on me today, and I said at the start of the day that I'm not going to be the only person solving the game today.

Please tell me the logical team pairing from your perspective.

[VP Baltar]

Second thing I want to address today is Haschel's voyeur claim. Here are his night actions:

N1: Targeted Reck (bus driver incident, I'll get into this)
N2: Targeted VP
N3: Targeted UT
N4: Targeted Noraa

Ok, so here is the problem with Haschel. Little of the information he provided was not said in thread already (I'm pretty sure), or wouldn't be known by the scum team. CAVEAT: THIS DOES NOT AUTOMATICALLY MAKE HIM SCUM.

But it also means he is not necessarily town.

N1, if Reck and Haschel were scum buddies, Haschel would have bee able to figure out in the scum PT why he got hit by my FN and Ythan's mask N1 because Ythan softclaimed before Haschel when Reck was outted. This is kind of a complex timeline, which I can break down further if needed. But Reck and Haschel are both really smart players. I fully expect they could have figured this out based on Ythan and me both nodding that Reck seemed suspicious.

N2 - Haschel says he targeted me and no one visited me. This is slightly unconfirmed at the time he claims this, but he also knows I already targeted Reck N1 and Haschel N2 since he received my FN confirmation two nights in a row. (FREAKING HILARIOUS IF I TARGETED TWO SCUM). The odds that I wouldn't have claimed more info if I had it were low at this point in the game (massclaim). I actually assume scum had most of the PRs figured out by the time Haschel claimed, so this is mostly knowable.

N3- Saying you targeted UT on the night of the kill is exceptionally safe from a scum perspective....and it actually doesn't even make that much sense from a town perspective? What could be learned by voyeuring the guy who was very likely to die?

N4 - Claims after duppin, so this was known already and a chance to counterclaim a missing action. The wrinkle here is maybe he wasn't intending to counterclaim duppin? Haschel did not know I targeted Noraa (unless he is a scum watcher actually, which would also make sense). I can't fully remove this one from a possible town Haschel column.



Open to hearing thoughts on this, and I should probably do the same for duppin's claims. There could be some nugget in their that proves MD claim is true or not true.

[VP Baltar]

You're essentially saying I should lose for having a life.

Nah dawg.

I'm not like looking at post counts and saying "well, you post less, so...."

I'm looking at people who are genuinely trying to solve the game and explaining why their solves make sense. I'm not saying Noraa can't be scum here, but I'm not seeing a good argument why she is. What am I supposed to draw as a conclusion from that?

[VP Baltar]

Looking at duppin's night actions:

n1: ythan - motion detected
n2: gamma - no motion
n3: gamma - no motion
n4: noraa - motion detected

Duppin claims no motion from gamma well before gamma claims. N1 & N4 were knowable in thread and could be faked. If gamma was town and duppin was scum, that was a risky claim. Gamma could have been some type of soft PR that moves, or he could have been visited one of those nights by Ythan or me. This doesn't exclude a duppin-gamma scum team.

This is a funny quote from duppin's claim:

I suppose i might as well just claim as i am not sure sitting on my claim really matters. I also don't really think it matters whether me or gamma claims first at this point because if he is scum then he should be able to conclude what my read on him is related to i think

i am a motion detector:

n1: ythan - motion detected
n2: gamma - no motion
n3: gamma - no motion

so initially thought gamma was more likely to be town for not doing anything n2 but after him not doing anything n3 either I feel pretty confident about him being town actually.
I don't want to go too wifom on this, but in my opinion i just think it seems logical for mafia to use gamma as the kill after reck flipped assuming one of skies and noora is the other mafia given they were obvious tpr targets.

the only plausibile possibility i can really see if haschel is scum and they used him to do the kill instead i guess, but yeah only possible teammate i can really see for Gamma is haschel but I honestly just think Gamma is town

Using haschel for the kills actually does make sense after he performed that hammer D1, especially if he is a goon.

[VP Baltar]

Ok, so lastly, we arrive at this question of whether it is better to lim from the {norra, gamma} pool or the {duppin, Haschel} pool.

I'm trying to logically walk through this as I write, so this might be slightly incoherent.

If we lim between {noraa, gamma} we have another night of actions from duppin & Haschel. Problem there is I don't think there is a good way to use their results to provide clarity tomorrow on who is town. Maybe someone is smarter than me and can figure that out.

If we lim between {duppin, Haschel}, duppin could potentially confirm the last scum tomorrow. That's a big benefit I hadn't considered until just now.

Overall, to me, this sort of feels like a decision about which day we want to take the most risk on, today or tomorrow. Gamma feels like the safer choice to me today, but it is basically delaying that risk until tomorrow unless someone solves the night action puzzle.

[VP Baltar]

Well I don’t really have the time to explain at this point, due to my IRL circumstances. Or at least, not in the same style Noraa does.

As for the night action evaluation in 1485 that actually seems decent. I’ll wait for the MD result side before trying to do anything heavy with it, though the part about Haschel’s actions not providing much info is pretty much the play aspect of why I think the claim is a scum one vs. a town one. In addition I think it’s more designed to be a scum PR vs. a town one based on the roles we have.

So you're saying it's got to be Haschel and noraa?

[VP Baltar]

I think what i will say VP is that I feel you are giving noraa townpass a bit too easy, i get the impression that you have not played with her before and thus are giving her a newb pass but she isn't a bad scum player actually.

I don't think it's newb pass at all. I've been gone from the site for a very long time, so there are few people left here who I have played with (though a disproportionate number in this game)....meaning, I really don't have much to base anyone's play on other than what is happening in this game. I believe you she can be a good scum player, but that'd be some exceptionally good scumplay imo.

I will take time to reread her at some point though and make sure I'm not biasing myself here.

[VP Baltar]

we can't really form any association reads based on today as it is very much a possibility that scum would bus today

I'd mostly co-sign this. Scum in a strong position might try to stay united and hammer one through today, but with both Ythan and I town, bussing is a much more real possibility.

[VP Baltar]

He couldn't have been visited by Ythan or you, as I had already said that you targeted me and Ythan had already claimed to have targeted Agar.

I had not claimed my N3 action at that point I believe. So I think that's incorrect.

[VP Baltar]

Aside from the fact that UT saw Reck commit the first kill, and the fact that I'm not a good, I was under a lot of scrutiny on both hammers and was a likely investigation target so I'm not sure I follow.

UT caught Reck N2 actually. That would make you the most compromised (hypothetical) scum N3 to kill UT. If I had just lost my roleblocker, I probably wouldn't want to risk increasing the bleeding by my third buddy potentially getting caught.

[VP Baltar]

If it’s duppin and Noraa

Ugh, that would be bad. I feel like I ruled this combo out for some reason, but I don't remember why.

[VP Baltar]

a) before VP had even counterclaimed me she said she did not believe me and haschel could ever be together - why is that?

I mean, that would make no sense, right? Scum would claim both a MD and voyeur? They are very similar roles. I think the only reason that didn't get called out earlier was because it seemed to fit some kind of thematic setup around confusing night actions. With skies' flip, it seems like too much town power to possibly be true.

We haven't seen any evidence of scum power to counter that much power.

[VP Baltar]

you seem to believe everything she has done is coming from a town perspective but in my opinion her play is also the most logical play to go for if she is with haschel so yeah

Right, I think we're arguing the same point to each other. You're saying I'm giving her too much town cred. I'm saying you're definitely overweighting her argument with you about Haschel. I agree with you she was making a bad point, but that doesn't mean she's scum. She could just also be town that has overcommitted to a solve.

[VP Baltar]

Haschel says I was targeted by a miscellaneous action after I ask in the thread if I can reveal someone visited me. Ig that is fairly meh but directly countering duppin was a bold move if he is scum cuz duppin is definitely TRed more...

That's not a bold move at all though? Counterclaiming today and going for a 50-50 is a great scum move in Xylo.

[VP Baltar]

I agree with this for the most part but I wanted to say that duppin's claim is one of the big reasons I believe in a duppin/gamma solve

That seems highly risky though, doesn't it? It definitely made a connection between them that everyone noticed.

[VP Baltar]

Haschel says I was targeted by a miscellaneous action after I ask in the thread if I can reveal someone visited me. Ig that is fairly meh but directly countering duppin was a bold move if he is scum cuz duppin is definitely TRed more...

That's not a bold move at all though? Counterclaiming today and going for a 50-50 is a great scum move in Xylo.

why?

If I'm Haschel, and I counterclaim someone who is already slightly suspected, I could have a good chance of swaying town to yeet that person. I mean, you yourself are saying Haschel could be town here. Scum's chances of winning become less tomorrow.

6 alive today, 2 confirmed.
Let's say Haschel doesn't counter, and Gamma is scum. We lim gamma correctly.
5 alive, 1 scum.
NK
4 alive, 1 scum....and either duppin gets to motion detect Haschel, or haschel kills duppin and has two confirmed towns in xylo.

That feels like a worse situation than today and a counter claim to victory

[VP Baltar]

her reaction to the haschel vote is very concerning

I actually agree with this point a little bit. Not loving that reaction.

[VP Baltar]

Haschel or both Gamma and Duppin are scum or it doesn't matter what we say now.

I don't think there are enough votes out there to prove anything at this point.

There won't be anything bad until you and I start voting. I'd love some analysis from you on the things I've said and where your vote is leaning today. I keep going back and forth on this.

[VP Baltar]

Lol I was having fun in this game until just now

[VP Baltar]

Ythaaaaaan

[VP Baltar]

I'd love some analysis from you on the things I've said and where your vote is leaning today. I keep going back and forth on this.

^ this mostly bb

[VP Baltar]

Wait actually I'll stop pushing my wagon for a bit. Vp who do u think is scum in duppin/haschel?

I think duppin is more credible here. I'm not certain, but Haschel's play today rings a little false

[VP Baltar]

I think all four of them are scum.

I'll try though.

YEET CANNON 2020

[VP Baltar]

I'm drinking beer now. Anything can happen

[VP Baltar]

I think my bias toward thinking Noraa is town is that I haven't had anyone too eager to solve this game until this point...and I really hate the scum team for killing AGar....YOU BASTARDS

[VP Baltar]

I just wanted a town buddy so we could trash scum together

[VP Baltar]

You have ythan

He's sexy, but he ain't solving this game so far

[VP Baltar]

And I've also been actively trying to solve as well.

That's what I'm saying! If you're scum, it is playing on my weak spot

[VP Baltar]

Either gamma dies or Haschel dies
One is confscum
the other is somewhere close

From my perspective everything is crystal clear about gamma but I can understand why its hard for you.

If I had a gun to my head, I'd actually guess they are both scum here and this is the most LOL convo

[VP Baltar]

What if Ythan is scum lol

[VP Baltar]

he would've hammered if he was scum so he's not scum 100%

It's 4 to yeet

[VP Baltar]

The fact Noraa doesn't know that is a huge townslip

[VP Baltar]

I feel like duppin tried to cue me in earlier cuz I kept saying that two scums with quick fingers could hammer but he was like no

Does that mean anything?

[VP Baltar]

The fact Noraa doesn't know that is a huge townslip

No it's really not.

I feel like duppin tried to cue me in earlier cuz I kept saying that two scums with quick fingers could hammer but he was like no

Yeah sure let's just wipe away the fact I STRAIGHT UP SAID IT IN PLAIN WORDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tbh I think if you want to try to decide between me and Noraa our mindsets are very lucrative to look at. Noraa is trying to push the obvious answer of “it’s not me so it’s Gamma” while I’ve been trying to suss out the best path, which I believe is to vote between duppin/Haschel despite the fact Noraa is confirmed scum to me.

Also with six it takes four for a yeet to happen, not three

MCFLY?!??!!??

Are you claiming that's AI? I mean come on

[VP Baltar]

What if we just yeeted Haschel right now?

[VP Baltar]

I think I should sleep on it. That will give ythan time to weigh in

[VP Baltar]

@VPB no I'm not but I don't like being swept off like that. I don't want to let it become a bigger problem.

btw McFly is a reference to Back to the Future

The reason I think it is a townslip is that scum certainly know it takes 4 to yeet. They've been talking about it since last night when they decided to no kill. They're probably talking about it right now It's the big drawback of their plan. Unless you think Noraa is faking not knowing that, it seems to come from a town perspective.

[VP Baltar]

Now that you bring in the no-kill, I'm curious where that would slide into the conversation.

No killing keeps from getting detected in night actions, but raises the yeet threshold by 1 today. That is what I assume the scum team debate was overnight. It's a gamble on where they think the town would land today

[VP Baltar]

I kind of hate duppin and gamma backing each other up on a gut level.

I'll look at that game duppin, and probably reread big chunks of this game while I wait for Ythan to weigh in.

Haschel, it's kind of weird you don't want to yeet the confirmed scum from your perspective.

[VP Baltar]

Ythan VP y'all been quiet since us four got into a tussle. thoughts?

I'll vote when I vote. I really don't need to hear more from any of you. Just need to think. It's going to be a risk wherever I vote.

You're welcome to push whoever you want to push, but people repeating the same points doesn't really have any effect on my thinking. Original lines of inquiry remain welcome.

[VP Baltar]

Gamma and Haschel voted the same on every wagon it seems.

D1: 177
D2: 723
D3: 1043
D4: 1271

Not sure that actually means anything (my own votes closely mirror them), but it seems worth noting.

[VP Baltar]

lol, I was so salty at the start of D2.

[VP Baltar]

if you wanna waste a hot 5 hours, you can read my only finished scumgame, Doggos.

Duppin, how do you feel about Noraa offering me the meta of her own scum game D2, unprovoked?

[VP Baltar]

im not using it against you, i just said i dont think its alignment indicative to refer to your own games. both town and scum do it

I think my point is that you are making this gigantic deal out of her scum performance in that game, and it's not like she was trying to hide it. In fact, she encouraged me specifically to go look at it without me asking.

If she was cognizant I might look at that game, why would she play to the letter of that scum meta this game, as you're implying?

[VP Baltar]

so yeah i dont think i said her play was exactly like in that game i also pointed out that she was new in that game, but my concern was in regards to her do some things that i saw in her scum game but not really in her towngame. but yes i have already admitted there might be some slight bias regarding some of it especially since i know haschel is scum, this was also why i encouraged you to read the games yourself and form your own opinion because i am not sure if it is useful for you to hear me claim one thing and for noraa to claim something is her town meta and so on

Right, I agree we have settled how you both feel about this particular meta.

Do you feel noraa is scummy outside this meta? How much looking back at the game have you done today and really tried to evaluate people with the totality of information we have.

I have to be honest, I think Haschel-Gamma is the right solve here, but I'm still doing rereading to check myself on that. I'm worried are both tunneling so hard on each other that even if we yeet right today, tomorrow will not go well because you're both so distrustful of each other.

[VP Baltar]

I just reread all of D2. I agree that Noraa's attack on reck early was bad, but it seemed like Reck actually tried notably to get her yeeted for that. There was a point (I think when the dr. Pepper wagon popped up?) that Reck could have easily flopped off noraa, but didn't. Granted, noraa wasn't THAT close to an elim, but their fighting seemed genuine. And it was being stoked by Gamma.

I think the biggest scum point against Noraa all game is her weird reluctance on skies. I should reread that again too.

[VP Baltar]

Additionally, D3 starts and Reck immediately votes noraa trying to get that going. Then UT outs him catching Reck, and Noraa stays in the thread mixing it up and asking questions.

I mean, that's extremely unlikely behavior from scum in that case. They'd immediately run to their PT and try to formulate a good plan.

[VP Baltar]

Off wagon Agar was voting me for ???? reasons.

I find it interesting that the only person that was on my wagon is dead. It honestly kinda makes me think scum tried really hard to see me up but I don't particularly understand why that would be prioritized over pr hunting unless they though they did a big brain move with getting a pr and setting me up. idk

This actually does make more sense if Noraa is town because the AGar kill was nonsensical in terms of his reads at that point.

[VP Baltar]

...meta can go fuck itself

Noraa, why did you say this when you entered the game, but then pushed people to go read your completed games a couple times?

[VP Baltar]

Ok, so let's entertain this for a minute. Who is your best guess at the full scum team reck?

great question. i'd probably wager 2 of the unrevealeds and then one of the claimed roles just based on probability. the extra manipulator role has to be something unclaimed since everything else is at least ACTION confirmed, but not alignment confirmed

so 2 of {gamma, skies, duppin, noraa} and 1 of {ut, ythan, haschel}

out of those, gun to my head, dont think it's gamma or ut.

This might be the revealing post we needed. Put yourself in Reck's shoes here. I forced him to tell me his scum team after he got caught lying. What are the odds he puts both of his buddies in the same grouping in this post? I would think low, particularly in the bracket where he says there are 2 scum.

If true, that means Haschel is definitely scum here. My only hang up with that vote is I don't trust duppin to sort noraa and gamma tomorrow in an open minded way.

[VP Baltar]

Gamma doesnt go that well with haschel imo....

how so? I haven't seen anything in rereading that makes them not fit.

[VP Baltar]

Ok, so let's entertain this for a minute. Who is your best guess at the full scum team reck?

great question. i'd probably wager 2 of the unrevealeds and then one of the claimed roles just based on probability. the extra manipulator role has to be something unclaimed since everything else is at least ACTION confirmed, but not alignment confirmed

so 2 of {gamma, skies, duppin, noraa} and 1 of {ut, ythan, haschel}

out of those, gun to my head, dont think it's gamma or ut.

This might be the revealing post we needed. Put yourself in Reck's shoes here. I forced him to tell me his scum team after he got caught lying. What are the odds he puts both of his buddies in the same grouping in this post? I would think low, particularly in the bracket where he says there are 2 scum.

If true, that means Haschel is definitely scum here. My only hang up with that vote is I don't trust duppin to sort noraa and gamma tomorrow in an open minded way.

VP don't forget my role

Hmm, true.

[VP Baltar]

Ok, so let's entertain this for a minute. Who is your best guess at the full scum team reck?

great question. i'd probably wager 2 of the unrevealeds and then one of the claimed roles just based on probability. the extra manipulator role has to be something unclaimed since everything else is at least ACTION confirmed, but not alignment confirmed

so 2 of {gamma, skies, duppin, noraa} and 1 of {ut, ythan, haschel}

out of those, gun to my head, dont think it's gamma or ut.

This might be the revealing post we needed. Put yourself in Reck's shoes here. I forced him to tell me his scum team after he got caught lying. What are the odds he puts both of his buddies in the same grouping in this post? I would think low, particularly in the bracket where he says there are 2 scum.

If true, that means Haschel is definitely scum here. My only hang up with that vote is I don't trust duppin to sort noraa and gamma tomorrow in an open minded way.

VP don't forget my role

Hmm, true.

no his role does nothing tomorrow.

I understand what he means. I won't be explaining it though.

[VP Baltar]

I'm willing to flip to prove these thoughts came from a town mindset.

You're willing to be yeeted and put town in YLO (assuming you are town) to save reck....uh?

lol, this is a funny ass post to reread

[VP Baltar]

Anyway.

VOTE: vote: Haschel

I've read enough.

[VP Baltar]

SO MUCH VOTING

[VP Baltar]

VP you believe in duppin town more than noraa town?

I believe you are both town and this is the optimal play.

[VP Baltar]

just hammer Haschel. Trust me.

[VP Baltar]

U sure about this?

Yeah, I'm pretty sure. You can blame me in endgame if needed.

[VP Baltar]

lemme go ask my magic 8 ball

lol. I like this plan.

[VP Baltar]

I hope so too! 8 ball....GIMMIE THAT MAGIC

[VP Baltar]

this hammer literally gives me the heebeegeebees cuz if that was town, I literally just fucked my town win rate over

It was bound to happen if it does, but you can definitely blame me for it.

[VP Baltar]

This has got to be a troll.

[VP Baltar]

it is a troll, you voted correctly

MY MAN

[VP Baltar]

Duppin would u lie to me?

well i mean perhaps, but i didnt lie this time

also vp and ythan maybe you should just visit each other tonight

I can do that. I'm not seeing the logic, but maybe it will come to me. We could also just not move.

[VP Baltar]

Ok I shall relax and go eat some watermelon. adiosss hopefully mod shows the flip by the time im back.

High five. We survived another day.

SHEWWWWWWW

[VP Baltar]

They are cheering for us in the dead thread.

Ythan, don't use your action tonight!

[VP Baltar]

I figured duppin was the kill. It was that or face two more days in play. I'll let gamma say his piece before I weigh in.

[VP Baltar]

I figured duppin was the kill. It was that or face two more days in play. I'll let gamma say his piece before I weigh in.

I literally looked like a fool yesterday and u didn't bother telling me. a bit salty about that cuz yesterday just looks dumb now.

I didn't want to tell the scum how to play the night action in case they messed up.

[VP Baltar]

Ythan, I'd take your thoughts though since I got impatient and didn't wait for your reply yesterday.

[VP Baltar]

Oh sweet. 3 to yeet. No risk of quick hammer

[VP Baltar]

That wall and the way she reacted to the kill look very forced, she’s trying to force a fake townslip here. That’s all I can muster today.

You mean in general, this is your case against Noraa?

[VP Baltar]

I mean, I did all my reading yesterday. I'll yeet gamma right now unless I heard something pretty fucking compelling.

VOTE: gamma

Ythan, feel free to dissuade me if you feel otherwise

[VP Baltar]

*unless I hear

[VP Baltar]

I love this mylo with no risk of quick hammer.

I think it's probably Gamma but we have ages so I may use a little of that time to make sure.

No prob. You can think about it.

I tried to lay out my thinking yesterday.

[VP Baltar]

Got to say, that is the type of posting that made me agonize yesterday that you might be scum.

[VP Baltar]

Aw for fucks sake

[VP Baltar]

Good job noraa.

I'm very annoyed with how town played this game.

But it was still a fun time

[VP Baltar]

The biggest thing that saved this game for me was getting to play conf town Statler and Waldorf with you VP.

Lol we both played scummy as hell and knew no one could say shit. I loved it

[VP Baltar]

Vp accept a huggie from Noraa for pocketing hard?

Honestly, I didn't feel so much pocketed as just your play was more protown toward an actual solve. Town apathy is a game loser.

You did a good job putting in effort.

Apologies to duppin.

[VP Baltar]

I wasn’t even apathetic I just couldn’t fucking compete with master of the wall Noraa over there
When someone is being townread for such a stupid reason as “they’re being more active than the other person” how the actual fuck am I supposed to fight that?

Getting mad that people don't assume you're town is not really a winning strategy.

I mean, that applies to several people in this game.

[VP Baltar]

fucking amazing the way that the doctor didn't protect me the night I died and you chucklefucks ignored that I said "hey yeet noraa tomorrow" so I really don't feel like there was a lot more that I personally could have done since I caught the person no one suspected

great job town

That catch was HUUUUGE.

I'll be interested to read the mafia reason for Reck doing the kill when they knew he was heavily targeted by town PRs.

The missed protect on UT was probably a major pivot point in the game.

[VP Baltar]

I wasn’t even apathetic I just couldn’t fucking compete with master of the wall Noraa over there
When someone is being townread for such a stupid reason as “they’re being more active than the other person” how the actual fuck am I supposed to fight that?

Getting mad that people don't assume you're town is not really a winning strategy.

I mean, that applies to several people in this game.

That’s not why I was mad. I was mad you were calling Noraa town something that a) isn’t valid and b) I could never match. You made the game a scum win the moment you valued activity over genuine solving.

I mean, cool. I'm not gonna argue with you I was right in my reads.

It's probably worth reflecting on your own play as well.

[VP Baltar]

I thought Reck killing was safe because I knew three town powerroles targeted him N1. Surely statistically there 1) wouldn't be many more town powerroles, and 2) they wouldn't target Reck, right?

Yeah, plus you'd think he has to move anyhow, so tacking another action on there might be ok.

Lucky break for town.

[VP Baltar]

Can I point out Noraa posted AN ENTIRE ISO PAGE during the D5/D6 stretch?
Yeah VP, you really need to rethink how much you’re valuing what you value.

Really? Because I would say the game should not have been on me alone to solve.

I was actively willing to engage with anyone, and very open to other solves. As far as I could tell, I wasn't getting a ton of support outside of duppin in end game.

[VP Baltar]

Well Ythan was really hard to get ahold of and you were tuned out for me
I just want to know what the hell I was supposed to do. I’ve accepted the outcome beyond that.

There's definitely a good amount that's on me. What made me suspicious of you was just the way you tuned out when it seemed like it could be you. If I was scum in that scenario, that's probably what I would do. That was what Haschel did and made me more suspicious of him.

But I should have stuck to my gut from the Reck flip that Noraa was his buddy there. It's obvious in hindsight of course.

[VP Baltar]

VP you were basically completely alone so if anything, you did the best. I definitely hit your weak spot cuz u felt no one was solving at all tho :/

For sure. You played very smartly.

So I essentially needed to work with you more, VP

I think a little would have gone a long ways. It's cool though. No hard feelings. Bummed I let town down, but I still had fun regardless.

[VP Baltar]

Lol the no kill was a mistake. Hilarious.

It actually probably helped the scum team. I probably wouldn't have voted quickly D6 because of jitters otherwise

[VP Baltar]

Duppin is right that I should have weighed your scum equity with Reck heavier. You softpeddled on his yeet when he was obv scum. I talked myself out of it in part because gamma's votes were in line with Haschel.

But now we all know you fake townslips

[VP Baltar]

lmaoooo but as town, I also have townslips

100% will yeet you in the future haha

[VP Baltar]

BTW I won't talk too much on it here but I just realized I've ALWAYS had trouble dealing with people like Noraa, ever since my very first game on this site.

If I was in your shoes, I might have pointed to the couple times she got impatient at the end. Plus her waffling on Reck. It's a tough situation when she was playing that hard to win.

I wonder if I had been killed, town might have one. Duppin/gamma were pretty strong in their beliefs D5.

[VP Baltar]

*might have won