Mini Theme 2244: 3d20 uRoll – Somewhere In New Jersey [End]

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VOTE: StrangeMatter
Post #9 was probably a joke to get the ball rolling, but it was enough for me to stop and hmm at.

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But he's Not_Mafia.

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Obviously cutting day 1 short is stupid, but is there any benefit to keeping the claimed cult leader around? They've got a motive to hunt scum, but arguably so do any other factions in the game, and if they make it to night 1 we risk having a townie converted.

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Loftwing goes on the "If We Reach The Deadline And Don't Have A Better Option By Then" wagon list then.

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Why would you fake claim scum that's like the most anti-town thing you could possibly do

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Why would you fake claim scum that's like the most anti-town thing you could possibly do

Why would you claim scum as scum?

There are two potential answers to why Loftwing is Loftwinging:

Loftwing is lolcatting or Loftwing is Jester. The first is NAI. The second is potentially game ending for scum. If somehow Loftwing IS cult, that's actually the biggest threat to all of the individual scumteams.

tl;dr Scum should definitely shoot the person who can maybe end the game, and not just to set up a vig claim down the line. Similarly, Loftwing is a pretty good vig target. Loftwing should not be the elimination today at all.

VOTE: Quiet Owl

I've known scum to claim scum and gamble on people assuming that they're a jester, although on a different site with a very different community. I usually take scum claims at face value and watch their reaction- not sure what to think of Loftwing immediately folding under pressure and claiming to be town pulling a gambit as I've never seen that before. Agree with you that they're not an ideal elimination for today.

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So... are we going to claim our dice rolls?

Very bad idea. If you're a PR, you'll be nightkilled. If you're not a PR, it's easier for scum to find PRs. Lying about roles seems pointless unless you're trying to attract nightkills?

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I would be the best day vig . Mahahaha lol

If you were a rampaging day vig, who would you target?

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can you elaborate your vote on owl

Yes. Their reaction to Loft left much to be desired.

34 was kinda like asking permission to scumread someone which came across as self conscious, 37 didn't really feel like they were putting any thought into why I said we shouldn't turbo lim the cultist claim and kinda just felt like they were taking it for granted that I had town's best interests at heart without asking for elaborations or explanations, there was no response to 38, and 40 seems to treat Loftwing as town.


Not a solid case, but more than a liquid case and definitely the best vote in the thread atm from where I stand.

34: Skimreading the first 3d20 showed that someone also claimed cult on D1 there. No-one immediately reacted to that and I wanted to know why.
37: You didn't say why we shouldn't though. You just said you "didn't want it to kill it with fire atm" so I thought "oh whatever no-one else thinks this is suspicious it's too early to tunnel people."
I didn't think 38 needed a response. 40 is trying to understand why a supposed townie would fake claim scum. It did generate content to analyse, which is a pro-town thing, but they're risking killing a townie (themselves), which is anti-town.
Perhaps I need to be more persistent about things. I don't like how determined you are to push for my elimination on flaky evidence, but that feels like OMGUS right now.

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37, specifically "taking it for granted that I had town's best interests at heart": You've got a point there, that was very shortsighted of me, but pointing that out would seem to indicate that you are town after all.

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Eh. Cult is the single person who is the greatest threat to the traditional scumteams,

If someone is obviously cult, we don't really need to deal with them on D1 as town because they are a bigger threat to groupscum than the townies are.

I have done some thinking and concluded that these are blatant lies.
The cult's strength is their alignment changing ability. This does NOT affect scum, who know who their teammates are and CANNOT be converted unless their teammates are dead.
The cult is a major threat to the town, who don't know who their teammates are. Townreads have to be re-evaluated after every night because the cult will convert obvious townies. Information from before that night is no longer valid for townreading people.

The only person who benefits from keeping the cult around is scum, because the town has to deal with an enemy who makes it impossible to eliminate people from the scumpool. VOTE: Bingle

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Eh. Cult is the single person who is the greatest threat to the traditional scumteams,

If someone is obviously cult, we don't really need to deal with them on D1 as town because they are a bigger threat to groupscum than the townies are.

I have done some thinking and concluded that these are blatant lies.
The cult's strength is that they have a faster “turns til endgame” clock than any other faction.

FTFY. You know who really dislikes getting endgamed? Mafia. It’s kind of why when balancing multi ball the scum teams are treated as though they oppose each other. Cult leader has all of the potential power of a town player and the additional ability to win the game over scum’s head.

From a scum perspective, the biggest threats are, in order: Cult, other groups of scum, solo scum, town, neutral third parties. Neutral third parties, of course, balancing as a guaranteed miselimination.

Bud. If your only defence is to re-write what I said and then respond to that imaginary post, then you're doomed. Flattered that you'd write fanfiction about me though.

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My vote is not moving from west. At the start of every day in my 1st post I will vote west. Till I'm proven other wise or one of us is dead.

Why do you think West is scum? I had them marked as more likely to be town.

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My vote is not moving from west. At the start of every day in my 1st post I will vote west. Till I'm proven other wise or one of us is dead.

Why do you think West is scum? I had them marked as more likely to be town.

His super weak case. West should know better. My slips like last time come from me misreading my role pm. Last time I cunfused dbl parity cop for muti tasked . Saying I think it was better to hide. Is me not knowing from lack of exp as pr is just being honest. I wasn't going do my crumb thing this game.

Fair enough. Though it is still pretty early on in the game and pressuring people over minor things is pretty much the only way to get information right now.

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More likely to be town:

Dragon of the West - Same as above.
cyrus62 - Not sure what I think of the alignment roll claim strategy but he's definitely trying.
Enchant - Feels town. If they're scum they've shot themselves in the foot at least twice by now.
StrangeMatter - Makes my chicken nugget brain hurt but at least they're poking people.
ssbm_Kyouko - Proactive, asking questions. However they claimed that RegRider townslipped and then immediately revoted him when questioned about this.

More likely to be scum:

Bingle - I am biased here and that is the only reason that I am not pushing this wagon. I still really don't like how they keep arguing to leave the cult alive. Why does it matter so much that the cult is left alive? Are you the cult? The cult endgames groupscum faster than groupscum can endgame cult, despite the cult having a conversion rate of 1 per night and we may very well end up with 5+ kills tonight?
Loftwing - Folded too fast on that gambit. Lots of jokes and mech speculation and doesn't go after players.

Too quiet:

Mama Ru - Improving on this front, but started the game with asking for roll claims.
RegRider - Too passive.
Save The Dragons - Has posted almost nothing.
Dwlee99 - They have school but still have a fluffy iso. Proactive in that they were first to vote for RegRider though.
Dunnstral - Posted even less than Save The Dragons.

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Why does it matter so much that the cult is left alive?

I haven’t been arguing this for a while, and in fact no longer feel this way. I was arguing for specifically not eliminating Loftwing for the lolcult claim because I thought loftwing had decent jester equity and jester was game ending.

I don’t have a problem eliminating cult now, but telling the difference between individual types of scum is a fools errand so I’m just looking for scum to eliminate in general. The reason I keep correcting you on scum being a larger threat to scum than town is twofold: A. It’s true, and I always argue true (or true from my POV) game theory regardless in games because I want people to improve and B. Because scum hitting each other makes the game easier for town.

Scum are a larger threat to scum than town because they are also people who don’t share a wincon, but they necessarily have more tools in their toolbox than town does.

This makes sense. I understand that factions with a nightkill would be at each others throats, but I suspect that scum would see a cult as a second town.

VOTE: Loftwing

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VOTE: Loftwing

Any particular reason why?

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Loft's weird aggressive deflection behaviour looks like the chainsaw defence. But assuming that Loft is town, Kyouko's earlier weird vote/unvote towntell posts combine with her behaviour now to look like she's scum trying to distance herself from a miselim.

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Perhaps worth noting that RegRider hasn't posted since the 19th and is well over due for a prod and possibly replacement.

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Breaking news: The wagons are being derailed by scum!

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Someone help me murder Loftwing he's brought metareading into the game.

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What's with the colour specific theorising? Why would it matter which scumteam Loft is on.

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It doesn't matter what color scumteam I'm on if I'm not scum.

Town does not fabricate wagons with "meta reading" as the basis.

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What's with the colour specific theorising? Why would it matter which scumteam Loft is on.

Red scum or other scum have a higher rate at finding each other due to not haveing town blinders on. You see. I am color blind this game so I have a 20% chance at hitting scum of any color. But red knows they are red and is looking for other colors. But scum have 25% chance at hitting a diffent color scum due to wanting to appear more town. will put in more effort in to finding scum of a diffent color and I don't think you would bus your partner.

Your reasoning is that if Loft is town, my incompetence proves me as town, but if Loft is scum, I am suspicious, as scum have an innate advantage when it comes to scumhunting because they are an informed minority. This doesn't take into account the fact that there may be masons in this game.

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^^^ Very much agree why are people going for the person due to be replaced in a couple hours and not the person who is actively being extremely scummy.

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Loft doesn't need re-examining though. He's pretty much confirmed scum. The RegRider slot made a bunch of nonsensical comments and then disappeared- if a slot is to be re-examined then that one should be top priority.

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Who wants to bet that Loftwing is Reg's partner? Me. I do. VOTE: Loftwing

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He attempted to wagon Dwlee for flimsy reasons and then hopped onto the Reg wagon when people became suspicious. It looks like bussing to me.
Unless it was an weird attempt to make Dwlee look townier?

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Bingle and Enchant both look town to me, and it should be known that

there is a bus driver.

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You have a point. I think that pgo actions would not be deflected to the other target, but I will ask the mod.

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Loft why do you keep trying to play devil's advocate.

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Who wants to bet that Loftwing is Reg's partner? Me. I do. VOTE: Loftwing

Can you please explain why you think that Loftwing is Reg's partner, because I don't quite get that.

Dwlee was the first person to suggest that Reg was suspicious and Loft's response to this was to try and manufacture a baseless wagon on Dwlee because "they're never this inactive as town". When that failed, he jumped on the Reg wagon. It is a fairly blatant example of the chainsaw defence combined with bussing.

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I didn't say there could be a bus driver. I said I know for a fact that there is a bus driver here. I do not care to out them at the moment.

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@dw can I get a list of who you think is the scummy? @owl can I get one from you too . Save the dragons could I get a list from you as well.

Town

Bingle - Charging in with a "I HAVE A GUILTY RESULT" doesn't seem like scum. I think faking results is a thing you do once and then never again when it inevitably blows up in your face.
West - Remains very towny but they haven't posted in 5 days.

Scum

Loft - He is scum and I intend to have him eliminated today due to the Dwlee wagon tomfoolery and how he folded on his gambit immediately when questioned.
Mama Ru - Too much performance not enough substance, claiming a PR unprompted is not a reason to trust her.
Enchant - Bingle's #763 post is fairly damning.

Unsure

Dwlee - Probably town, but I want to know Loft's flip before I make a decision here.
StrangeMatter - Tentatively town. Unlikely to be partnered with Loft because they pointed out Loft's weird wagon behaviour yesterday.
Save The Dragons - Tentatively town due to the evangelistic claim.
Cyrus - I was going to put him in the town section but then I remembered that the last person I met who tried using claiming strategies was mafia. Undecided here.

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I never said you were partnered with Reg, why did you jump to that conclusion?

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Literally just said I thought you were town. Now I'm having doubts.

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I think you are town. I think Loft is mafia. I do not want to rule out the possibility of werewolves or aliens yet, and if it turns out they exist I have to re-evaluate a lot of things.

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If I was scum I'd either be partnered with reg or not partnered with reg. So you either think there are 4 scum factions in this game, or I'm partnered with reg, or I'm town. I think the first idea isn't super likely, and the second is completely ridiculous.

There was two kills . The claims we have at this time is sk pgo . And blood hound . And the blood hound is saying they checked a pgo and got not town . Wait a min. Doesn't the wiki say fbi finds sk.

Bloodhound is not alignment specific according to the wiki. Seer is probably the werewolf specific role here.

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Bus driver swaps player A with player B. If someone targets player B, they will target player A instead. Player A and player B's night actions are unaffected by the bus drive.

We know that Bingle visited Enchant. The two dead we have can be attributed to the two known scum factions. If anyone else visited Enchant and lived, they should have spoken up when Enchant claimed PGO. The only conclusion that can be drawn from this is that Bingle was driven with Loft. In which case the bloodhound's already being protected.

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Player A and player B's night actions are unaffected by the bus drive.

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Going to copy and paste from the wiki.

"any night action performed on a switched player will affect the other player targeted by the Bus Driver."
"For example, suppose a Bus Driver switches John and Jack. That same night, a roleblocker tries to block John and a Goon tries to kill Jack. In the end, Jack will be roleblocked and John will be killed."

We assume that Loft and Bingle were switched. Loft targeted Mama Ru. Bingle targeted Enchant. The bus drive cannot alter Loft and Bingle's targets.
Save The Dragons targeted Loft. However, because Bingle and Loft were switched, Save The Dragons tracked Bingle to Enchant. Anyone who targeted Bingle would have gotten the result for Loft.

A bus drive would not cause Loft to target Enchant, or Bingle to target Mama Ru. Continuing to perpetuate this falsehood is anti-town.

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Okay fine Enchant's probably a better elimination than Loftwing today. VOTE: Enchant