Mini 174- Townie Mafia- Game Over!

[Thesp]

I'm replacing Omniplex. Pondering over the thread, thoughts by tonight, and I promise content.

[Thesp]

I'd like to hear what Brushhopper has to say, and I echo dybeck's suggestion to wait out Brushhopper's restrictions (assuming it's only for today, let's hear more from him). I don't see a reason why he shouldn't divulge the extent of his post restrictions, does anyone else?

I don't think Seol has been acting scummy at all, though, but I have prior experience playing with him so I

may

have a slightly better read on him. I find KWIJYBO's voting actions odd, but I've seen similar actions from scum and non-scum alike, but I'm not sure it's something we should forget. My prime suspects right now, though, are Brushhopper (who I'm willing to wait some on as he's not given us a lot to work with yet, voluntarily or not), and Assasin. On that note, I also echo Mr Stoofer's observation that SpeedyKQ was happy enough to bandwagon most of the lurkers, except for Assasin. It seems silly to me to think no one looks scummy at this point, and coupled with his seemingly intentional lurking Assasin appears scummy enough to me for a day one lynch, at least, and if he does turn out to be scum, I think SpeedyKQ will have much to answer to (or, conversely, we may be able to write off his comment).

Unvote, Vote: Assasin.

[Thesp]

I concur with the sentiments that Assasin is not an ideal lynch. I'm not sold by any means as to the existence of a mafia recruiter, and I believe such an idea woud be further discounted by continuing Seol's suggestion of inviting three people to join the group. I request that Assasin invite two other people of his choosing, in similar format to his previous request. Heck, if you used the exact same format, but just changing the name of the invitee, that would be even better.

On a related note, I find it odd that Seol would "preferred [he] asked someone like Mr. Stoofer, who's not so supportive of [him]", but then accept the invitation anyway. Only minorly odd, probably just happy to confirm a role, but I can't discount the fact that he's wanting him and his scum buddies to hear anything that goes on there. I concur with Seol's own assertion that no substantive talk should go on in such friend meetings.

I find BlueSin's assertion right now more disturbing than the possibility of Assasin being a recruiter. (If he was, I suspect he may have come out earlier.)

Unvote: Assasin, Vote: BlueSin

.

[Thesp]

Thesp, just to let you know I can only invite one person a day, look up a bunch of posts.

Ah, I missed this, thanks. I still think you should invite someone tomorrow, using substantially the same form as the invite to Seol.

I too am against everyone claiming any form of "weak/powerful" or "verifiable/unverifiable" for reasons posted by Mr Stoofer, compounded with the fact that it's unlikely we'll know what abilities the mafia will have, if any, therefore having a verifiable

ability

=/= verifiable

alignment

.

I'm still happy with my vote on BlueSin (particularly after reviewing his earlier posts which mostly prodded people for being inactive while he himself contributed little), though I find the suspicion in Mastermind of Sin and Mr. Stoofer to be well-founded.

[Thesp]

Nothing BlueSin has said or done has made me think that moving my vote from him would be a good idea. I'm happy calling his bluff.

[Thesp]

I think this self vote kinda clear myself, since scum don't need to take such risk(-1 lynch)?

Hadn't we just discussed how some of us (myself included) think you look even more scummy

because of

the self vote at this point?

[Thesp]

I still think from yesterday's conversation that Mr. Stoofer is the most likely scum. Vote Mr. Stoofer

This wouldn't surprise me, and I could certainly go for such a push at the moment. However, I'd like to hear more from him first, and from brushhopper now that he can speak more, and I'd like confirmation from Seol that he is or is not part of the Happy Friends Club, or whatever it's called.

[Thesp]

Mr Stoofer, I'm going to run down what I think makes you suspicious, despite the fact that I know others have addressed these concerns as well.

Post 92: Immediately after Assasin claims a verifiable role, you claim you're happy with your vote on him, without offering further analysis. This strikes me as odd. (Seol also made this observation.) (((Does he have an in game trigger?)))

Post 128: After some very clear, well thought out responses re: verifying Assasin's status on Day Two, you claim skepticism of the whole scenario. To me, this sounds like trying to plant seeds of doubt into an otherwise sensical puzzle. Rather than trying to help clarify and work out things, you sound like you're trying to muddy them up.

Seol also gave further reason for suspicion of you in Post 138. Ignoring the Bluesin part of this post, I do not fault you for your association of SpeedyKQ and Assasin (as I'd believed it too, and it took some very careful checking of timestamps for me to see otherwise), but his analysis of your vote on MoS was spot on. It was oddly timed coming after he'd come back to posting content, yet that's the implied justification you give for your vote. Sounds like piggybacking.

It also seems odd that in your Post 140 for point 2, you agree that we should be discussing Assasin's claim, yet you had not previously, and your contribution to the Assasin discussion was the previously mentioned Post 128, where you seemed to have disdain for the whole conversation.


Yes, you were right about BlueSin. It's also worth noting that Mastermind of Sin was also less anxious to vote for BlueSin after he self-voted, and he was mafia. This doesn't suggest that you are or are not scum, but the fact that you seem to be trying to use it as justification for your innocence is suspicious. It's similar with your defense of "I voted MoS!", voting for him at that point doesn't prove/disprove being mafia, but raising it in your defense at this point looks suspicious to me. (There's also a possible argument there that you may have voted for MoS when you did

because

he was starting to post content, so an all-out bandwagon on him would be less likely to succeed, lacking its initial basis, and pointing the finger at each other makes you look innocent when the other turns up scum.)

And last but certainly not least, it always irks me when people say "The only reason people are suspicious of me is

x

" when there are other issues as well, as it seems to do two things: distort the facts and intimidate those who may consider voting for you.

Vote: Mr Stoofer

.

A couple of other random things:
Brushopper, what are your thoughts on everything? Since we didn't have much of an opportunity to get much on record from you on Day One (for understandable claimed reasons), and especially if your ability is worth using in future nights, it's important that we get plenty of content from you today. For what it's worth, I wouldn't necessarily disclose whether or not you'll use your ability in the future, as I'm not sure it's useful at all for us to know what your future plans are at this point.

Seol, it's my understanding that usually 3-person mafias are common for 12-person games (25-33% mafia). Where did you get 2-person from?

Kwyjibo, I don't know about everyone else, but I want to hear some real content from you. You're next on my suspect list.

[Thesp]

Where did I say "only reason"? Read my posts again. I made it quite clear I was talking about what (I believed) were the main reasons. You are distorting my words.

I concede that my saying "The only reason people are suspicious of me is x" is an oversimplification of what you'd said, and really only captures the rhetorical essence of what you said. Here is what you said which to me indicates that this idea is what you were trying to capture, emphasis mine:

I'm surpised to see that I am a prime target today.
...
As I understood it, a principal accusation against me yesterday was my attitude towards BlueSin.
...

Since no actual evidence has been cited against me today

I don't think that there is anything more I can say at this point. But I was suspicious of Speedy yesterday for the way he acted towards Assassin and I am suspicious of his

unsubstantiated acusations against me

today.
...
Oh yes, another thing that I was accused of yesterday was voting for Mastermind of Sin without sufficient justification.

So apparently, the 2 main things that make me scum were:

1. Not voting for BlueSin (townie).
2. Voting for MoS (mafia).

Speedy, Thesp, care to explain how that makes me suspicious?

The first snippet is what began it all, preparing us for why we shouldn't even consider you as a suspect at this point. The second snippet is narrowing the field of "suspicions against you" into the non-vote for BlueSin (which you broaden in your next post to include your vote for MoS). The second to last snippet only looks at what people have said today, despite the fact that people have spoken of things from the previous day, and we'd only been 13 hours into this day. The last snippet presents a false dichotomy, that a case againt you must be brought on these grounds. It sounds like you're trying to set the playing field for any suspicions against you.

Rhetorically, it flows very neatly to attempt to narrow any suspicion of you into something which isn't in and of itself terribly suspicious. If you voting for a mafia and not voting for a townie were the only reasons I found you suspicious (and had ever been stated against you), I would be a fool indeed, and your posting would be a perfect response. As it is, it feels more like propoganda to me.

If you feel I have taken your words out of context or there is something I'm missing, please let me know, but this is how it comes across to me.

[Thesp]

I think that's what's happening here, to be honest - a clash of styles between Stoofer and myself/Thesp (I don't think Thesp will mind my saying that we share a similar playstyle), resulting in a disproportionate escalation of hostilities.

Actually, Seol, I'm honored for you to say we share similar playstyles. I concede that it's possible that this is a case of clash of styles and disproportionate escalation of hostilities, but it's what I'm seeing at the moment and going with for now.

[Thesp]

There is one final comment directed at kwjibo: that was me on night 1. You know what I am talking about. You can confirm my innocence.

This is pretty substantial.

Unvote: Mr Stoofer

. I'll assume for the moment that Mr Stoofer's refraining from explaining details is likely because we don't need to know what's going on on his side, but we

absolutely

must hear from kwyjibo at this point.

One more note: While it's established that it's not necessarily the case that "________ Townie" role name form indicates being pro-town, I'd like to contend that being "________ (something-other-than-'Townie')" is possible as a pro-town role.

[Thesp]

That said, can anyone think of a reason

not

to invite Stoofer, given these events?

Mr Stoofer seems like a fine choice for the Happy Friends Club, and I'm honored you considered me to be your friend.

It appears that the day's events do indeed confirm Mr Stoofer as the role he says (if there's a scenario where he's not, I don't see it). They do not, however, confirm kwyjibo. He's not been very forthcoming in participating, and it appears to me that he's been posting just what's required of him, and not enough for anyone to get a read on him.

Vote: kwyjibo

. My best guess at the moment now, and the pressure should help get things figured out.

Also, given that things are rolling along, I'd like to

formally request an extension/retraction of the deadline

. We have directions to move and are moving there.

[Thesp]

kwyjibo, you're the psychic? That doesn't fit the two-word pattern of the other roles we're aware of. I'm not buying it personally. I'm happy with my vote as is. However, I would also like to request that no one put a lynching vote on him until we hear from Mr Stoofer that he cannot confirm kwyjibo's story (the claimed night 2 block), and give everyone a chance to weigh in on this. (Now that we have an extension (thanks SpeedyKQ!), we can spend some time discussing it further as well.) However, if Mr Stoofer can affirm being blocked night 2, we have a new story. Also, Mr Stoofer (though you're probably aware of this), I don't believe further details of your role need to be divulged except for whether or not you can confirm kwyjibo here (which you may or may not be able to do regardless). I could be wrong, but at this point I trust your judgment in such a divulgence/witholding of information.

Does this sound suitable to everyone else?

[Thesp]

Unvote: kwyjibo

.

It's still conceivable that kwyjibo is still not town-aligned, but is instead a mafia roleblocker, but I'm a heck of a lot more comfortable with him at the moment. (A mafia roleblocker in a game this size doesn't feel balanced, barring some serious counterbalances.)

The "who's next" question is the hard one.

[Thesp]

I'm the

Mafia Killer

. I'm a halfway-sort-of itchy trigger finger vigilante, except I must make kills on every even night. Night 2 was Mastermind of Sin. (Glad I chose him of Mr Stoofer, who was my other choice at the time). I know my name doesn't fit the "_________ Townie" theme, but that's what I've got.

Now, who to lynch.

At the bottom, I've included the claims list. Based on it, there are a couple of things I'm willing to grant:
1. Mr Stoofer is pro-town, pretty much confirmed.
2. Assasin is almost certainly pro-town. (98%ish)
3. Brushhopper has been consistent with his claim, but is not confirmed ability-wise or alignment-wise.
4. dybeck's ability is not confirmed, but is more likely to exist given he was correct in that I went out night 2. Even if this is proven, this does not confirm him as pro-town.
5. kwyjibo's ability is pretty darn confirmed. The only way it's not is if Mr Stoofer and kwyjibo are running some huge gambit together, one that soon would fall apart on its own and is highly unlikely in the first place. It would take some unusual circumstances for him to be scum at this point, I think.
6. I am by no means confirmed, either ability-wise or alignment-wise.
7. Seol's ability is not confirmed, nor is his alignment.
8. SpeedyKQ's ability is not confirmed (though confirmable), nor is his alignment. However, should such ability end up being confirmed, I find it doubtful that scum would get a role so potent for them. Conceivable, but unlikely.

So this leaves me with this:

Let's not lynch these guys today, if ever:

Assasin
kwyjibo
Mr Stoofer

The "I'm not sure about these guys, but they can wait" camp:

SpeedyKQ

The "There might be something going on here" group:

Brushopper
dybeck
Seol


Brushhopper could be a manufactured claim from the beginning. dybeck could be lucky with his guess (his N1 pick was a "safe" one). The one that stands out to me is Seol's claim. It's exactly a role name (which none of us have), it dissuades a lynch, and seems too convenient.

Vote: Seol

.

I doubt there is, but do we have enough time to confirm SpeedyKQ's ability and still get a lynch in, or should that wait until tomorrow? I'll be active enough to do it, not sure about everyone else.



----------

Claims list

Assasin - Popular Townie, forms mason group
D1 - Seol (accepted, confirmed existence of HFC)
D2 - Mr Stoofer (accepted)

brushhopper - Paranoid Townie, can stay up to kill someone, but can only post three times the next day.
N1 - used
N2 - not used

dybeck - Snooping Townie, picks someone's house and tells what's going on
N1 - Assasin (stayed home)
N2 - Thesp (went out)

kwyjibo - Psychic Townie, roleblocker
N1 - Mastermind of Sin
N2 - Mr Stoofer (confirmed by Mr Stoofer)

Mr Stoofer - Veteran Townie, doctor
N1 - kwyjibo
N2 - Blocked (kwyjibo confirmed)

Thesp (replacing Omniplex) - Mafia Killer, must night-kill on even nights
N2 - Mastermind of Sin

Seol - Beloved Townie, if lynched, lynchee commits suicide, if nightkilled, skip to night

SpeedyKQ - Kung Fu Townie, once a day, can knock out a player who voted for them

[Thesp]

Vote seol

. your role is worse then being a vanilla townie. If the mafia nightkill you it helps them?! Also if we lynch you, you take one of us with you? That is either a horrible, horrible role or you obv made it up. I'm also suspicious of thesp at this point because of his name not being _____ townie. And why is his role name mafia killer? Does that mean he's mafia, or does he kill mafia? or what?

It's not a made-up role name, or what it's worth.
http://www.geocities.com/gldragonphoeni ... wnies.html
I didn't see why it was necessary of him to divulge the "beneficial if the mafia kills me" part, though, if it's not made up. That's not a very Seol-like move at all. Seems more designed to draw the doctor's protection.

Very, very happy with my vote.

[Thesp]

I'm also suspicious of thesp at this point because of his name not being _____ townie. And why is his role name mafia killer? Does that mean he's mafia, or does he kill mafia? or what?

Me too. There's:

* The non-"___-Townie" name
* The "verifiable" nature of it that we can't check on for another

two

days and still has a number of outs,
* The fact it's the perfect cover-claim for a serial killer to make (and "Then he heard a footstep behind him, and quickly stood up and spun around. He barely had time for his eyes to widen in shock before the knife went into his throat" doesn't sound like vigilante flavour to me).

Vote: Thesp.

* I'd contended a week ago here that a name being in non "_______ Townie" form was not itself an indication of being scum, and no one seemed to have qualms with the suggestion at that time. Why now is it a problem?
* I concede that my claim is not terribly verifiable for any number of reasons, and I have not made claims to the contrary.
* I'm the Mafia Killer, I'm trying to kill the mafia. I'm not going to give them a chance to kill me back.

[Thesp]

I'm still pretty sold on Seol being scum. I'm pretty sure that taking the knockout punch to confirm SppedyKQ is just to generate sympathy. I'd be willing to place the last vote on him on the off chance he's telling the truth, but I'm almost certain he's not. If he gets three votes I will place the fourth on him, just so you are aware.

[Thesp]

Thesp, why not just vote him now?

On the off chance Seol is telling the truth, I'm willing to be the one killed. If we think it's better someone else takes the bullet, I'm willing to go that route, but I'm okay being the one to cast the last vote.

[Thesp]

Sit on our thumbs until Assasin or kwyjibo upgrades their FOS into a full-fledged vote, or at least tells us why they are hesitant to do so.

Ideally, I'd like Assasin to invite somebody to the HFC first, but I'm not too worried about that part of it.

Quoted for truthery.

[Thesp]

I'll

Vote Seol

as well. That should be 4, with me as the last vote. Mod?

[Thesp]

Yusssssssssssssssss! Go mafia!

I have to say this is the first game where I wasn't lynched

because

everyone thought I was the serial killer. Wow.

When it came mass calim time, I thought we were in big trouble, but we somehow managed. Good game all, this was a tough one!

[Thesp]

Oh, and massive props to Seol, Assasin, Mr Stoofer, and really just about everyone for their gameplay. This was a very enjoyable game, and many, many thanks to our mod for your efforts!