Mini-190-Murphyville Mafia - Game Over

[carrion pigeons]

Hi, I'm here. I won't vote for armlx just because I want to hear what he has to say. I suspect that when he said he was a priest, he meant that was his rolename, as opposed to some official type of role on this site. He said to check the wiki, but I don't see a role called priest there. Maybe I'm missing it?

[carrion pigeons]

Yes, from the pm's I got both from SV and Puzzle, the requirement was to correct a certain number of posts every game day. Could you imagine how infuriating it would be having to correct every single post in the game? Especially if you're a French guy. He made a heroic effort, doing as much as he did (probably went a little overboard, in fact, haven't counted). I'm glad I don't need to do it.

Anyway, PBug, it should be fairly obvious from what SV said when he unrestricted those with posting restrictions that Puzzle (me) had one, and that it was causing problems. I think I'm pretty well clear thanks to the mod.

I assume that there is a doc in the game (I could be wrong, though, I guess), so it would probably be more in armlx's interest to specify a single person he's confident in, so the doc can protect said person. That way, we can clear armlx and get his investigation for sure, or else it will still be easy to decry him as a fraud when it doesn't work. If armlx is willing to say that he will target me (or whoever he thinks best, but I maintain that I am the most confirmed townie around) specifically, I'll be happy about it, but I would prefer to be left out of this if he decides to pick from a short list, for reasons specified by others.

In any case, I think we should look elsewhere for our lynch today. Armlx's claim makes him too easy to confirm, one way or another, to bother with today.

[carrion pigeons]

What is the argument against LML?

[carrion pigeons]

Here's the thing, Drummer. Why do you still want to pressure him? He's given a full claim, plus it's easily verifiable. As you say, the only person who would cooperate would be a fellow scum, which means that to get just an even trade out of the ploy, he'd have to convince us to lynch two townies, which wouldn't happen, since he, at least, would die after one bad lynch, and if he were mafia, the recipient (also necessarily mafia) probably would die too.

Him finding innocents for us certainly doesn't help him and his mafia partner, since if they really are finding innocents, they're hurting their position, and if they're helping scum buddies, they're putting all their eggs in one basket, taking an awful risk. It's just a bad claim for mafia to make, and we have no reason not to try to verify it.

As for the idea that he's scum and can send messages to people telling them other people's alignment, that's pretty farfetched. Occam's razor, my friend, Occam's razor. There isn't any evidence to support such an idea. The only reason he's under so much pressure at all is because he has a role that isn't easy to buy, and you want us to believe that he has an even more unlikely and unbelievable role?

You know what?

Unvote mneme(?), Vote Drummer

. The fact that you're saying such ridiculous stuff is made worse by the fact that your trying to cast doubt on any investigations that a highly verifiable cop might make in the future. When I started writing this I was going to along and vote for LML, but I think you're scummier looking.

[carrion pigeons]

[Quote=Drummer]Of course, he can be scum that sends messages.[/Quote]

Armlx's claim is that he can send letters to people with investigation results. Your suggestion (of which there is no proof) is that he could be scum that sends messages. Neither is proved at this point, but at least Armlx knows the truth, whereas all you're doing is trying to find a way for him to have the ability he claims and still be scum, and saying that even if two people can back up the claim (both Armlx and the Note-Receiver) that we can't trust it.

[Quote=Drummer]So we won't really be able to get a whole bunch of info from the plan. But we'll know if he can send messages and we'll probably be able to keep his message-recipient listed as a possibility. [/Quote]

Here, you're preemptively trying to cast doubt on Armlx's investigations, even though he would have more than enough confirmation at that point to at least test the quality of his investigations.

In other words, you're making a wild speculation that has no proof, and using them to cast doubt on a highly confirmable (and probable) cop,

and you're keeping your vote on him as well!

. Most of my post was explaining why he had no comprehensible reason to lie about such a dangerous, and difficult to maintain, roleclaim. As a general rule, it's a very bad idea to go around lynching claimed cops under any circumstances. Mafia know they can't keep up a roleclaim of cop for very long; unless they stand to win the game that day or night by forcing a mislynch, it's pretty much never to their benefit. This is day one; I guarantee the mafia aren't winning tonight.

Armlx's claim is even more unlikely to be false than a typical cop claim, since he would have to drag another mafioso into the game to make work for even one day. That is such incredibly bad strategy for a mafia to employ that I can't believe that that's what he is. Besides, even if he is lying, we'll know very soon.

I am very suspicious of you, Drummer. The fact that you're voting for a player who is almost certainly one of the more powerful pro-town players in the game for basically no reason at all, combined with the fact that you maintain that his investigations would not be trustworthy (again, for basically no REAL reason at all beyond pure guesswork), is the reason I'm voting for you.

I'm not defending Armlx, I'm attacking you, and with good reason. Armlx needs no defense.

[carrion pigeons]

OK, I guess I'll defend Armlx after all.

Apparently, Crola, you didn't pay much attention when Armlx claimed, because he didn't do it over several posts at all. He said that he was a vig and a cop, and that he could only use his abilities if he alternated. He said that in a single post, and has not deviated from that story. In a later post, he said that the role was called a priest, and that he had seen it in another game (in which the priest was insane), and on the wiki. Noone could find it on the wiki, but the game still exists, if you care to check it out. His story holds up, and he has not changed it.

A lot of people are voting Armlx primarily because people are maintaining that he said and did stuff he simply didn't do. The only suspicious thing that he did was to claim an improbable role, but that is not lynchworthy, particularly when his role is so verifiable. Are you really willing to lose a cop so easily? Please unvote him, everyone.

[carrion pigeons]

The way the town is acting, any scum could claim cop and they'd immediately say "Hmmmmm, he/she might be a cop so let's not even consider the possibility that they're scum and lynch a townie instead."

Yes, that's exactly right, except that we are considering the possibilities and judging that we'd feel a lot more stupid for lynching a claimed cop without hearing even a single investigation than we would for finding out later that he's scum. Please, if all the scum want to come out and claim cop, I promise, I won't vote for any of you until tomorrow, when you can give some evidence of your claim.

Crola, I completely fail to see how you could still think Armlx is a good lynch. First of all, can you even say one thing that he's done that could be genuine evidence that he's a baddie? Secondly, wouldn't YOU feel pretty dumb if you found out (after the end of the game, I guess) that he really was a cop and you were being thickheaded? I said before, and I'll say again, DON"T LYNCH CLAIMED COPS UNLESS YOU HAVE SOME KIND OF SERIOUS EVIDENCE AGAINST THEM!

Anyway, Drummer is a much better target.

[carrion pigeons]

Since I guess nobody's interested in lynching Drummer today, I'm happy enough to switch votes. I won't be accused of ignoring the game for my own Crusade.

Unvote Drummer, Very strong FOS Drummer, Vote Dranko

.

I don't have any problem with lynching Dranko, at least he hasn't claimed a role that would make him a bad lynch.

[carrion pigeons]

Unvote

First of all, I doubt that Dranko can self-protect if he's a doctor. Unless he can, he should plan to protect the either the person that receives armlx's note or armlx himself. Don't say so, Dranko, since all you'd be doing (whether or not you can self-protect) is make it easier for the mafia to second-guess you. Same goes for any other person who might have protection abilities.

Secondly, I'm OK if you want to investigate Dranko, armlx, but you might notice that it's not really very important that we know that Dranko innocent, so if your motive in investigating him is to confirm your protection as townie, I wouldn't worry about it. You're just as likely to be protected by the real doctor if Dranko's actually scum. I tend not to think that he's guilty; he hasn't done anything genuinely scummy, except lurking.

Also, to benefit the real doctor's chances of a successful protection, you should say who is receiving your note. You should also choose to investigate someone who is actually scummy looking. ...Drummer...

[carrion pigeons]

Sorry, that was my friend's account. I'm at his house at the moment, and neglected to log off. Pretend that I said the above.

[carrion pigeons]

Just a note by the mod, quoteing the details of your role from my PM is not allowed, however you are very much allowed to quote the story of your character from me for the purposes of letting the town investigate if they believe you story. Just to clarify.

Crola: I said that you couldn't roleclaim because of this. Perhaps I misinterpreted? In any case, it's too late now. Perhaps you'd all like to follow me with an

Unvote, Vote Drummer

? Now that we've presumably got a bunch of townies to claim, lets actually lynch a scum.

[carrion pigeons]

Yaargh.

Sorry about that. Yes I meant you, EYNH.

[carrion pigeons]

Sorry, Crola. Someone had to die. If it's worth anything, I believed your claim, though I don't know if it really proved your townieness much. Maybe we can play again sometime.

[carrion pigeons]

I was kind of expecting to be the recipient of armlx's mail, but I received nothing. Apparently, from what armlx said, Drummer isn't either, despite the mod's reference to a note he had received last night. I see no harm in armlx saying who he sent the note to. I do understand the possibility of a mafia roleblocker or something similar, but at this point the risky coincidences are getting to the point where it may just be too dangerous to justify not lynching armlx. I'm willing to vote for him if he doesn't get someone to vouch for his ability.

Unless there's some major mod creativity going on in the deathscenes, it looks like we have an astonishing 4 mafia left. Does that mean we're at lynch or lose already? I tend to think that the person who targetted Drummer isn't scum, not least because that would make the game incredibly unbalanced. (It wasn't me; I'm a male copy-editor, not a female ninja-whatever .) Of course, Drummer might actually have been mafia, in which case we could be down to three. Obviously LML wasn't, though.

[carrion pigeons]

OK, there are some different possibilities here.

1- PBug actually received the letter, and Dranko is either guilty or innocent: obviously PBug is scum. PBug has no reason to lie if he actually got the letter and is pro-town.

2- PB didn't receive the letter, which means that
a-armlx didn't send it, which means he lied, and deserves to be lynched.
b-armlx was roleblocked, which means the mafia are trying to set him up, and he's innocent.

I'm at a loss, actually. Obviously one of them is scum, but we have no way of finding out, even if we kill off both of them, which would be a bad idea. We can't just kill one and let the other one live, we can't let both live, and we can't kill both of them.

So...umm...if Dranko is guilty, then PBug is guilty by association, and armlx is innocent. If Dranko is innocent, then PBug is very likely innocent, and armlx is very likely guilty, although that's less for sure. That's assuming no roleblock, which totally changes everything, and very possibly all of them are innocent.

...Does anyone else have any abilities they want to have claimed to have used last night? Investigations are even more valuable than in a normal game, since they're the only way we have to verify anyone. Even if we can just confirm a couple of innocents, it will make life that much easier.

Here's my thoughts, I guess. How about if everyone with an investigation ability comes forward, and then tonight, each of them investigates another of them. Any docs we may have (Dranko?) should protect randomly among them. We have at least three people who have already claimed at least one possible investigation, and if we can confirm that even one person is both innocent and can investigate, then our situation becomes a lot more stable. Any thoughts on this plan? I'm not an investigator, in any case.

[carrion pigeons]

I'd just like to note that there are still some scenarios that would make some of armlx's list of "cleared" people not actually innocent. I'd be more comfortable if at some point we could verify PBug as innocent w/ another investigation. (If PBug is innocent, then he wouldn't lie about Dranko, and he wouldn't lie about receiving the note from armlx.)

That said, there isn't any reason to worry about it any more today. Warp's not my favorite target, since he claimed an investigation that he could use, and I would like it if he could get a chance to be useful before he died. I'd like him particularly to reveal what he did last night.

Any other valid suspicions at this point?

[carrion pigeons]

I acknowledge that I'm not confirmed, however, I'm not nearly such a good target as you, given that your confirmation would provide certain confirmation of two other townies, and that your behavior would be highly explainable as mafia.

Given a choice between Nicole and mneme, I'd choose mneme, simply because he's paying less attention to the game than Nicole is, plus there's a small amount of flavor evidence due to his post-restriction-claim against him.

Vote mneme

. This might actually get us somewhere.

[carrion pigeons]

It may just be me, but I'm noticing an awfully large number of potential kills in this game. We have a mafia, a ninja, armlx every other night, and potentially more. Assuming armlx uses his kill tonight (which he should announce), we have at least 4 kills this day/night. Do we feel comfortable killing off people just because they have no evidence in their favor? If the ninja-lady is pro-town, which I think she is, we may very well just be able to outrace the mafia. (One of us dies from a mafia kill, 3 of mneme, IS, Warp, EYNH, and Nicole die from townie kills, tomorrow, one of us dies (down to 2 supposedly confirmed people), and town gets 2 more kills (no armlx), leaving the confirmed's as the only players left.) Town wins at the beginning of day four at the latest.

That's assuming a few things, but it might be something we can look into, if we can get a little more info.

[carrion pigeons]

First of all, I support armlx's idea to use his lynch, and IS is as good a target as any. We've reached the endgame awfully fast, due to the number of kills, and I think we need to try to race the mafia, because by tomorrow, we're going to have very few people with any trust factor at all, and it won't be easy to win once that's the case.

Second of all, about the ninja, I think she's pro-town because she killed someone who looked far scummier than anyone else at that point. (Admittedly that's just my opinion, but since all I'm doing is basing my opinion on my other opinion, I think I'm justified.)

I'm a little confused why armlx would think I'm the ninja, especially if he thinks she's anti-town. My role does not support it, my posting restriction makes no sense with it, and I didn't claim it (why wouldn't I when I was so sure that he was scum, and nothing has proven otherwise?). I fail to understand why an anti-town would want to kill off someone who's already having to defend against his own scummy behavior? They'd prefer to save him for a daykill then waste a nightkill on him. It makes much more sense that a vig thought my opinion was justified and decided to act on it.

That said, I am a limited vig, and I can probably prove that the ninja-girl kill was not me when the mod gives the description of the night's kills, if that's what the town wants. I referenced in my last post that there might be more kills because I knew there could be, but I wasn't sure if it was in the town's interest. The flavor of my role is that I'm a perfectionist copy-editor, and I bug people to death with my corrections, so I can only target people who make plenty of errors.

I also get extras when everyone has perfect grammar for a whole day, which basically make it impossible for the mafia to win, which was why Puzzle was trying to get everyone to be grammatically correct. But since that never happens, it'll never happen.

There's my roleclaim, since I think the town should know what they have at their disposal right now; if anyone feels my ability can be of use to the town, their input would be appreciated.

[carrion pigeons]

Well, we've managed to go a whole day without anyone saying a word. What's going on? I actually thought we had more than enough to talk about.

Anyways, IS, it looks like we might have as many as 5 kills tonight, and it makes sense to me to leave warp alive so he can investigate PBug, so we'll almost certainly get Nicole. The game is ending awfully fast, so we'll see if she's scum or not pretty soon, assume people ACTUALLY START POSTING!

[carrion pigeons]

!!!

You're telling us that you have a role that is disturbingly similar to armlx's, except that it is totally, completely, 100% impossible for anyone to ever have reason to trust you? It doesn't make sense to have a role that shows up false to investigations in a game where investigations are the only proof of roles we can get.

Mafia like to put the town into catch 22's a lot more than the typical mod does.

Vote PBug

.

Anyway, this throws serious kinks into the plan, since it can't be assumed that anyone is confirmed anymore. PBug could be lying about having received the note (I doubt this, but it's a possibility), or he could be lying about his result, or there's a small chance he could be telling the truth, (although he still makes the best lynch for the day, since he's the only person guaranteed not to be confirmable as a townie).

I need to think about this some more. This game is never easy.

[carrion pigeons]

How about if we have you target Nicole, and Dranko can protect her, or something? That way, we can verify if Dranko is still really what he claims, if Nicole survives, rather than PBug's scumbuddy. Unless Dranko can self-protect, which would allow us to target him directly and save us some time. Dranko? If you can, you should say so now.

As for my kill, and the ninja's, if she's pro-town (and still alive), I think we should hold off. After PBug and the mafia kill are done, there'll be 7 players left, with three of them (armlx, Dranko, and whoever warp investigates) decently confirmed, or else there'll be 6 players left, one of whom we know is scum (Dranko). If there are seven players left, then there can be 4 kills possible that day/night, w/ Dranko protecting those we feel are confirmed. Odds are, two of the remaining players will be players we're confident in, and we can lynch the survivor. If there are 6 players, we kill Dranko and learn warp's investigation result, have the mafia kill, and then we have armlx's investigation that night, so we're left with at fewest, two confirmed townies among 4 players. If both end up as mafia, we lose then, but otherwise (as is more likely), we can vote off one unconfirmed and find a way to win that night (vig/roleblocker/doc/etc.). I think this offers our best chance, so I'm not going to use my ability tonight.

We just need to make sure nobody does anything dumb.