Mini 1336 - Revolution Mafia Game Over!
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In post 137, implosion wrote:
This. Actually, mathematically speaking, you canneveridentify two people as being different alignments more strongly than you can identify one of their alignments on its own. For instance, say that you're 70% sure that X is town and 60% sure that Y is scum. Then the probability that they have differing alignments is (.7*.6)+(.4*.3) = 54%. More than that, it's logically provable that there are no "they have different alignments" tells (that is, there's no reliable way to say 'i'm X% sure that these two players have different alignments' without saying how likely you think each of them are to be each alignment. Basically, scumhunting ought to start on the individual scale.
I can't ignore this.
You're wrong and your reasoning is circular. The joint distribution of alignments is not fully determined by the distribution of individual alignments and there's no reason why the odds of X being town and Y being scum would be .7*.6 (and the only way to justify it would be to suppose that scumhunting is based on the individual level and "thus" conclude that those events are independent). Think e.g. of a counterclaim in an open - in that case you know there's exactly one scum among the two claimants but you may well only be around 50% sure either is scum.
(I put "thus" in quotes because although it's a decent approximation, it's not actually true that those events will be independent in any reasonable situation because there's a fixed amount of scum and that means X being scum is generally negatively correlated with Y being scum. I'm fairly sure the actual calculation is somewhat tricksy.)Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 905, Llamarble wrote:What do you think of Kanye though?
So far, my impression of kanye has mostly been that he's somewhat under the radar but that's sort of hard to tell when you're specifically paying attention to him.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 376, implosion wrote:Spyrex is kind of giving me some of the same disgustinggutscumvibes that he gave me in the only other game i've played with him (in which he was scum). Can't pinpoint it. Other game, I could. He might have just been readable as a fluke in that game. Looked at random towngame (league mafia) of his, don't get the same gut ping, but that might be bias. Shmr. Dunno.
^townie (especially with the "shmr")Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 923, Llamarble wrote:I'm still pretty happy lynching Kanye though, since neither Fate nor CES seem to want that lynch and there's probably a scum in that pair.
Kanyelynch isn't bad actually. There are some valid points against him.
I just think it's silly Fate hasn't been lynched yet. The whole "CES can read me" is lazy too (hint: not actually a thing).Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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More votes for Fate.
Either I have magical Fate-reading powers, in which case you should sheep me, or I don't, in which case Fate is lying (well, pseudo-lying) and you should vote him.
P.S. read that "well" a la Tennant.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 997, Llamarble wrote:In post 976, Fate wrote:
CES is fucking town, it pains me to admit it, but he would try to use me as scum. He just has forgotten how I Work
This flip I don't really see from Fatescum.
Why? Seems to me to fit right in with the rest of the meaningless raging.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Vijay, you should vote for Fate. Voidedmafia is Tomorrow's lynch.
In post 1005, Llamarble wrote:I think townies are more likely to decide they were wrong about something while thinking about the game later.
It's also just hard to abandon a good possible mislynch as scum.
Fate can still be scum, but this is definitely an 'eh yuck maybe he will flip town' for me.
And competent scum know that well-executed 180s look townish. The way to tell the two apart is quality of reasoning and his is trash. And I'm pretty unmislynchable.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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You're boring, Fate; 'marble is town.
On an unrelated note, I did some calculations and based on my reads, my a priori estimate (i.e. not taking into account the no-sabotage result) for the odds of an all-town mission are around 19%; odds of a 1-scum mission 53%; odds of a 2-scum mission 26%; and odds of a 3-scum mission 2%. Conditioning on the no-sabotage result should lower the second significantly and up the other 3 accordingly but I certainly think 1-scum is still a reasonable option and we probably shouldn't be too optimistic regarding the no-sabotage result in general.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 1063, BBmolla wrote:In post 1053, Llamarble wrote:The people who :do: think we can read Fate / have had success reading him in the past are all voting Fate.
What do you think that means?
That you should make an easy to read case on why Fate is scum here and why lynching easier scum is not a better alternative.
Fatetown would recognize 'marbletown. There, simple as pie.
I really don't get why getting Fate lynched is so hard here. He's playing a very lazy transparent game.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 1056, Llamarble wrote:am town because there was no sabotage
This isn't a town tell by the bye, unless you assume scum would sabotage if they had 2+ on the mission with decent probability.
(Easy to see why it's not: a priori expected amount of scum on the mission will surely be at least 1 or thereabout given reasonable reads; lack of sabotaging basically just decreases the chance that the amount of scum will be exactly 1 and reducing the probability that the average will be obtained doesn't affect the average.)Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 1141, Llamarble wrote:It is basically a rolecop power though.
I guess without a nightkill that becomes less useful to scum, but you'll have to explain to me what is unambiguously pro town about it.
What's the point of knowledge without the means to act on it? Seems to me that the only function of the role is to be able to see if people's claim check out.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 1148, Fate wrote:CES, answer me this, why are there no NKs?
Because the scum don't have a nightkill.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 1154, Llamarble wrote:CES a role identifier is useful for directing anything that messes with town roles, and if scum don't have an NK it's likely they have something that does that.
I see no particular reason why scum would have such an ability. There certainly hasn't been any sign of it. Furthermore, if my understanding of the set-up is correct, then my ability has zero predictive value.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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You do acknowledge that the ability itself is unambiguously pro-town then?
I don't see the point in mass claiming although it's probably worth explicitly pointing out that people really should feel free to claim relevant info.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 1176, Fate wrote:-CES needs to stop being a dumbass one trick pony that does nothing, gives no reads, or anything productive outside pushing a wagon on who he thinks is scum, and realize he might be WRONG ABOUT ME and stop being a puppet for scum. Especially when he's smart enough to realize scum are on the mission.
It's hard to take you seriously when you're still pretending 'marble could be scum.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Okay, White Flag. (For those not in the know, White Flag was one of the Team Mafia games; Llamarble was scum and I got him lynched.)
So when 'marble came back from being V/LA he encountered pressure in both of his ongoing games. There's a world of difference between his reactions here and there; despite having plenty of motivation Llamarble didn't come particularly close to mass posting in White Flag like he did here. It really is a pretty unambiguous town tell; he might eventually learn to fake it but we know he hasn't yet.
Note also this comment: "I think I actually delivered on my claim that I would read everything in the thread 5-6 times. GOD I LOVE BEING TOWN." (356) which 'marble made on the same day he got lynched in WF.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 1294, Llamarble wrote:The 'my role only helps town thing' I still don't buy because we just don't have enough information about scums' capabilities.
Absence of evidence is evidence of absence here, surely?Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 1325, vijay2vasandani wrote:anyway, who are we lynching?
Kanye.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 1336, Llamarble wrote:Yeah, Molla looks better in ISO than he did in context. He gets to live today.
Looking better in ISO than in context is not actually a good thing, 'marble.
In post 1338, BBmolla wrote:If CES is wrong about Kanye he's scum.
Are you burdening of proficiency me? That'd be new. And vaguely cool.
In post 1350, BBmolla wrote:I don't even care anymore really. Nobody gives a shit about me. ;-;
It's okay. Your vote still counts! (Also, I'm sure you'll be scrutinized if the mission gets sabotaged.)Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 1371, Llamarble wrote:In post 1370, SpyreX wrote:Ohh Kuribo
Much like Fate asked and it didn't happen, when I'm not scum will you go ahead and make mr marble be dead?
This sounds like it's intended to sound like bussing after Spyrex goes down to help scum mislynch me tomorrow, haha.
Who'd be my scumbuddy if not you Spyrex?
CES: Impossible
Kuribo: lol
Darox: lol, though possible if you're crazy I guess
Kanye: lol
MattP: Town
Vijay: Town
Implosion: Meh conceivable
Molla: Meh conceivable
I'm sure there are good reasons for me/Implosion/Molla to be not a viable team, such as this post.
Try giving a coherent perspective on the game please. X and some combination of Y and Z are scum.
Not 'well my reads are this this and this I'm going to make the one lynchvote contradictory to every single one of them.'
Or "let's lynch whoever is easiest and stay as aloof as humanly possible even though this town is in trouble and needs us to work hard to pull out a win"
This is a silly post, 'marble. The kind of player that can't see you're town here is not going to be convinced by that post.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 1394, Llamarble wrote:Kanyescum doesn't have a clear reason to fight off a wagon on Spyrextown though, and both of them being town would make the scumteam some kind of hiding-in-the-shadows CES Implosion Molla combo.
"Hiding in the shadows" only applies to Implosion and molla, right? I'm right there on the frontlines helping the town mislynch kanye and spyspy.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 1445, Llamarble wrote:The notion is that I am having trouble figuring out who scum are, and so (supposedly) are implosion and Spyrex, and nobody seems to really be confident except people who are blatantly wrong (Darox, Kanye). I just didn't like that gamestate.
The notion is that mass claim is magic and will make your problems go away.
Llamarble wrote:My unvote of Spyrex wasn't necessarily permanent. I just am too uncertain to let day end right now.
I got that. But if you're unsure as to whether spyspy or kanye is a better lynch (and expect to be unsure in the future) then you should also be fairly ambivalent as to which of the two gets lynched (also: decent odds we're lynching the other one after).Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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In post 1455, Llamarble wrote:This claiming has been helpful to me.
That probably just means you're bad at set-up speculation.
Can we lynch the urquan now?Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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