Mini 1405: The Simpsons Mafia (Game Over)

[qwints]

Death to L337 Speak!

VOTE: d3f3nd3r

[qwints]

OK, if you're going to out yourself like that.

UNVOTE: D3f3nd3r
VOTE: Klick

[qwints]

Christmas is all around me. V/LA til tomorrow.

[qwints]

Time to catch up:

Turning that back on

qwints and Mhork

: Why do you assume the self-vote is a scum one?

It's certainly not conclusive, but I think scum's slightly more likely to do it in a vacuum since it's a random vote that doesn't risk connecting you to or distancing you from anyone. It's clearly not a post restriction as Klick's further posts have shown.

So...bastard game according to the queue page.

It seems clear who would be scum name-wise (Fat Tony and his guys, for example).

I wasn't planning on getting into specifics with that unless people gave a damn. Apparently not yet.

Self-vote + RVS = either humorous, an error, or quite possibly a post restriction, knowing the bastardness.

It was asking for opinion. If a lot of us wanted to name claim, why not?

I gave my bit on the self-vote stuff...I don't see why Klick hasn't posted since his self-vote.

These posts are horrifically scummy. Trying to get a mass name claim without a good reason and while trying to avoid responsibility is a sure fire scum tell.

UNVOTE: Klick
VOTE: D3f3nd3r

Finally, the whole discussion surrounding Plessiez's "buddying" of Mhork is interesting, but I'm not sure what to make of it yet. guile's initial case in 28 has decent internal logic - Mhork's reaction to Klick's self vote differs from how he reacted as town in another game. Plessiez's response that guile is misrepping is fundamentally right - Mhork didn't react to Klick's self vote directly and his vote on the player who did wasn't an attack for voting a self-voter, it was an attack for backtracking. guile's misrep looks scummy since he took the time to link the game, and the event is straightforward enough that I don't buy it as an honest mistake.

Klick's reaction to this, however, is to describe guile as a town read in 32 which I find pretty bizarre, as is saulres's attack on Plessiez for buddying in 38. While the latter makes a good point of pointing out the inconsistency in Plessiez approving of Rufflig's vote, it ignores the fact that Plessiez has explained his guile vote. Overall, I think saulres looks town for the way he's pressuring Plessiez over Rufflig.

So overall, this discussion makes me think SaulRes is more likely to be town. Plessiez looks scummy for his treatment of Rufflig, but guile also looks scummy because the misrep seems too easy to miss.

Questions:

@Klick, why does guile's 28 make him look town?
@D3f3nd3r, are you actually proposing a mass name claim? If so, why?
@DoubleJD, what does this mean:

@Saulres, post 50, i like mhork as scum for that, i dont see buddying though. Seems more like hes just interested in seeing if the meta argument held water or not.

[qwints]

@D3f3nd3r, are you actually proposing a mass name claim?

I was semi-serious about name claiming:

Is that a yes?

[qwints]

On the question of a mass name claim - my primary issue is Defender was the initial one to raise the issue but has refused to take a real stance. I think that stands out as particularly scummy.

[qwints]

Ruffling, I used to think like you before I was hammered for taking that positioning another game based on the idea that informing everyone is the only real weapon town has.

[qwints]

Guille's vote on Rufflig is horrible. If Plessiez is being inconsistent in his treatment of Rufflig, why not pressuer Plessiez? If Plessiez's other behavior makes you see Plessiez as town, how could Plessiez's behavior make you see Rufflig as scummy?

UNVOTE: Defender
VOTE: guille2015

Defender's not getting any better. Again, the key issue is not suggesting the name claim - it's the way he does it. He hints at in his first post, then wants to talk about pros and cons, then finally he doesn't care. It screams scum trying to get something to happen without being blamed for it and it doesn't look like the other people considering name claims. I am still would love to see him as the day 1 lynch.


Klick and Plessiez look town, for opposite reasons. Both are encouraging pro-town play but with very different styles.

[qwints]

Playing outguess the mod in a bastard game is

never

always a

good

fun idea

Fixed that for you.

[qwints]

V/LA til Jan 8th

[qwints]

UNVOTE: guille2015
VOTE: saulres

Sheeping plessiez here. His argument on the trap seems pretty tight.

[qwints]

They mention him being confirmed as town and waiting til tomorrow. It's a suicidal claim unless he's actually got the ability though.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: guile2015

[qwints]

I'd definitely be up for a deadline D3f3nd3r wagon.

[qwints]

Since he was able to pick up on my alignment and state it

I don't think I'd said that yet, but looking back I do see you as a town read.

[qwints]

Gogo Defender wagon!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Defender

[qwints]

-------------[] for the no lynch vote + the active lurking and since i won't be online right at deadline.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Baby Spice

[qwints]

I'm going to double-check but he may be the most active lurker we have here.

There's a reason for that: I'm a 1-shot doc and I protected Ztife last night. I am, therefore, confused as hell by what happened last night.

[qwints]

Of course I'm not sure I'm a sane doctor because it's a bastard game.

I stayed quiet because I had hidden information and I wanted to see if someone claimed or said something that was inconsistent with that information. I'm also still trying to parse last night's events, but i'm leaning towards believing it means we have two killing roles and a truthful saulres.

[qwints]

Indeed, I did miss one post in the breadcrumb, annoyingly enough.

I'm not name claiming because I don't see a reason to at this point. I will say I'm not the obvious one (Doctor Hibbert).

The primary reason I was thinking saulres is town is the idea that scum chose to shoot the cop and block the friendly neighbor. Actually writing out the scenario, however, is problematic since the PGO's 1 shot would hit his killer rather than his investigator.

[qwints]

I have 0 shots, and that would be true whether I was roleblocked or not.

[qwints]

That's the mod's answer?

yes

[qwints]

VOTE: Klick

[qwints]

Hmm. I forget how Doctors work on mafiascum exactly .

According to the wiki page, if multiple people try to kill somebody, then that person dies even if a Doctor tries to protect them. Just how common is this interpretation of the Doctor role? (The same page does say that "some moderators" have a Doctor protection protect against

multiple

kill attempts, but just how many moderators is "some" in this context?) We might be jumping the gun in assuming that qwints (if town, as I think he is)

has

to have been RBed or be insane/naive.

I explicitly only protect against one kill. The problem is that the 2nd shot on ztife can't be the PGO b/c of NAR.

[qwints]

Ztife died and killing comes before investigation.

Kline because of the earlier wagon analysis.

[qwints]

Ples - whoever killed guile would have triggered him before ztife did.

[qwints]

It's looking less likely.

If I successfully protected guile, that means there were 3 kills last night - 2 to kill ztife and 1 to kill guile. Presumably scum shot ztife for one of the kills. Guile looks more like a vig kill to me than a scum kill, and makes sense as an investigation target. But guile would have been an idiot to choose to PGO last night (if 1-shot activated means he chooses one night to be PGO) or his shot would have hit whoever killed him rather than ztife (if 1-shot activated means he shot only one bullet). In this case, I figure 2 scum shots on ztife and a vig shot one guile. This scenario seems unlikely, but it means that scum chose to kill ztife rather than block him and try for a mislynch today. That makes sense with a friendly neighbor block.

On the other hand, my protect might have failed. Either because ztife was a macho cop (not everything is revealed about the role + flavor hints), I'm a quack or scum rb'd me (b/c of obvious breadcrumb.) In the latter case, saulres or HF is probably scum and we lynch saulres first - unless a town player can explain why saulres's message didn't go through. More than 1 scum rb'er seems able to be ruled out given the limitations of most town PR's we've seem so far.

[qwints]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: saulres

[qwints]

I still think we should lynch saulres. I'll try and post something comprehensive tomorrow.

[qwints]

Klick and Plessiez look town, for opposite reasons. Both are encouraging pro-town play but with very different styles.

qwints, please explain this early read on Klick more fully.

Klick was using short, sharp posts to advance the game. He was opposing the use of walls, calling out reads and drawing content out of other players.

Plessiez was the opposite in using longer posts to map the game out, but he was also putting out reads and getting content from other players.

Neither seemed to be playing it safe or trying to keep their options open. Both players' play felt like it had genuine reasoning and flow behind it.

[qwints]

Can we just lynch saulres? His failure to confirm himself isn't compatible with the actions last night.

[qwints]

If you were town, HF would have received your message. It's possible HF is lying scum, but I think it's more likely you are.

I think the most likely scenario is that scum spotted my breadcrumb and blocked me. I'm not willing to believe in two scum roleblockers.

Hence saulres is scum and we lynch him.

[qwints]

The first letters of my initial posts were my breadcrumb. I messed up with one post.

[qwints]

I've certainly bread crumbed PRs as scum before. See Mini 1386 as an example.

I claimed today because I thought my information was worth more to town than keeping my role secret was. Especially since I'd already used my single shot. I know that at least 1 person spotted my breadcrumb, so scum might have spotted it as well. And if scum spotted it, then they rb'd me and killed the cop. I'm willing to bet scum can't block more than one role, so I'm willing to bet saulres wasn't blocked by scum. That's why we should be lynching saulres.

[qwints]

Nor would I be surprised to see an Otto - Bus Driver in this game. I'm thinking that qwints protected ztife, the scum targeted guille for the kill, and the bus driver switched guille and ztife. qwints being Dr. Nick, a Quack doctor, would explain why guille's dead. (The scum would have targeted guille because they knew he'd make a good mislynch, so throwing the potential doctor at him would make sure he was alive from any potential vig kills -- except they didn't know it was a quack doctor.)

I don't understand this, could you break it down? Are you saying I'm ineffective or that I kill if I don't protect from a kill?

[qwints]

UNVOTE: saulres
VOTE: D3f3nd3r

[qwints]

D3f3nd3r's iso screams scum preparing a big "I told you so" after the lynch they disagree with but aren't really trying to stop flips town. For someone who's convinced of saulres being a bad lynch, he's done nothing to prevent it.

[qwints]

I feel like he's doing more about his saulres-town read than d3f3nd3r is. He could be scum though - the "how do you know scum daytalk?" thing seemed forced.

[qwints]

UNVOTE: D3f3nd3r
VOTE: Lord Mhork

I don't like my company on the d3f3nd3r wagon.

[qwints]

qwints: Your vote on D3f3nd3r was for an ISO that "screams scum preparing a big 'I told you so'" to my mislynch. Given that, why is my presence on his wagon a negative thing for you?

Because you and lurker-Phil are not players I have town reads on.

[qwints]

Company is enough to turn you off of a wagon you believe to be on scum?

Absolutely.

[qwints]

I"m committed to a Mhork lynch though I'll switch in the unlikely event that avoids a no lynch.

[qwints]

VOTE: Phillammon

[qwints]

Is it now true that:

1) HF is lying scum;
2) saulres was rb'd; or
3) HF was swapped with scum by the bus driver?

[qwints]

Okay. I've tried to play impartial observer (no time for the promised saul post, sorry), so on the wagons. I personally think that of the four wagons going, I need time to look at saul (sorry again), and I still have a townread on mhork, in spite of what's being said. D3f3nd3r I still dislike on a number of counts that I already outlined, so that's where my vote is going.

VOTE: D3f3nd3r

PEdit: Wow, ninja'd by my own prod. That kinda sucks.

He makes D3f3nd3r the leading wagon. He hedges on the townie and defends scum.

[qwints]

He makes D3f3nd3r the leading wagon. He hedges on the townie and defends scum.

What's your read on D3f3nd3r?

I didn't like his posting on saul, and I'm not sure what to make of the name claim. Pretty scummy overall in terms of content. His wagon being the alternative to mhork on the other hand makes me think I'm wrong about that - I'll need to do some VCA to parse it out.

[qwints]

The two biggest things are that Mhork parked his vote on D3f3nder all day, and d3f3nder didn't vote all day - though I'm pretty sure he endorsed the Mhork wagon.

[qwints]

Would that work? Wouldn't that mean that kill saulres instead of who they targeted for the kill?

Broadly - rb, bus driver or you're lying are the possibilities.

[qwints]

Still here. Still want to lynch phil.

[qwints]

So Fitz, what do you make of Rufflig's Philhamon vote?

[qwints]

So let's lynch phillamon! Phone only access til Sunday for me.

[qwints]

Here's a question for everyone not named Phillammon:

Why aren't you voting for Phillammon?

[qwints]

Missed the beloved princess claim. That's a very weird time and way of making that claim.

[qwints]

But, by the same token, why would scum-Arc claim there? Pure bad play?

[qwints]

I don't even konw about role like "beloved princess" exist a week ago.

This is pretty plausible. Beloved doesn't show up on Roles, Normal, or Normal Roles. The last games I see it being used in are Kingdom Hearts Mafia, Mini 1319 (MoI's fake claim) and Gay Mafia (aka the Umbrage incident) all of which ended well before arcangel joined the site (unless he's an alt, and was lying when he talked about a game being the "first on the site"). While beloved princess is used on other sites, I believe it's a fairly rare role - this will be the first game I recall in which someone either was or claimed to be a beloved princess. The mod played in Gaben Mafia where Kuribo was teasing Umbrage about Gay Mafia.

Of course arcangel could have heard of beloved princess before now or this could be a plan devised by scum buddies who had heard of the role, but my initial instinct is to believe the claim.

[qwints]

arcangel, apologies for getting your pronoun wrong.

Plessiez, what do you think about the implications of Mhork's fake claim for the current role spec?

[qwints]

Okay, so we've got 1 claimed name and 2 claimed roles.

At least 3 roles have obvious names that haven't been claimed or flipped yet

. That means there's either 3 or 4 spots left for a role name matching beloved princess. I could see a few characters being given the beloved princess role, but none of them are as tight a fit as most we've seen. On the other hand, I don't see an obvious role for comic book guy.

So I don't think that set up speculation can get us to ruling out the beloved princess claim. Especially when it appears that the scum are likely to have fake claims that fit in the system. I need to re-read to see if anyone made a similar comment to mhork since that seems to be a likely scum slip.

[qwints]

Confirm vote: Phillammon

[qwints]

Mhork is less townie, but still town. Good activity (albeit with more noise than I'd ideally like...) and asking relevant questions, while answering questions going at him. Openness is townish. At the same time, there was the neighbourizer-friendly neighbour issue, which still smacks of oppurtunism- though given the amount of posts, could more likely be genuine confusion here.

I don't believe you wrote that about a player you had a "no gun" result on, especially you put it in the middle of a long post.

Two scum in pairs; either saul/guille or Ztife/Plez
One scum in {sword, Mhork, D3f, fitz}

I don't think town-Klick targets Mhork given this read.

Both of these posts look a lot more like distancing scum.

[qwints]

I protected arcangel last night. I lied about how many shots I had.

[qwints]

I take it back. Plessiez is the towniest town that ever towned. INCREDIBLY active, GREAT hunting, and nothing noticably objectionable in the ISO. In general, definite, solid town.

This is a counterclaim.

Ooh. So much for my setup-spec, then (maybe?).

Is there any reason it doesn't make logical sense to lynch Phill first, and then -- should Phill flip as he claims - lynch ArcAngel next? (Since Arc is claiming Beloved Princess, that seems the safer play off the top of my head.)

Plessiez is now obv-town.

[qwints]

VOTE: sword_of_omens

Pure POE for now.

[qwints]

Actually, UNVOTE:

Amusing fact #1, sword_of_omens has never had a vote on him during a vote count.
Amusing fact #2, I forgot how hard he fought to get Mhork lynched.

VOTE: D3f3nder
Stupid Flanders. His "counter-claim" reminds me of phil's and he wasn't on either scum lynch.

[qwints]

No one. I do have limited shots, but I have more than 1.

[qwints]

I was pretty convinced scum would shoot at the basically confirmed ArcAngel (why would scum counter-claim scum), so I figured it was a pretty safe action. Scum obviously believed my 1-shot claim since I'm still alive, so I don't think they would shoot another target to account for my actions. That means the worse case scenario is that she dies anyway (which happens if I don't protect) and the upside is we get an extra lynch and keep a confirmed townie around longer.

I agree that we should analyze the claimed night actions, but I have a really tough time seeing HF as scum. Why in the world would the scum team kill saulres if it implicated one of their own?

[qwints]

opened their cards= claimed?

I've claimed 1-shot doc. I've admitted lying about it being 1-shot.
Defender claimed Flanders.
ArcAngel's claimed Monty Banks and Beloved Princess.

I think that's it.

[qwints]

Defender claimed his name was Flanders. He has not claimed a role.

Also, you claimed Monty Burns not Monty Banks. I'm an idiot.

[qwints]

Flanders is the main characters' annoying friendly and pious neighbor.

[qwints]

Rufflig, can you explain the saulres kill if HF is scum.

Also, we're not close to lylo so why not lynch the low hanging fruit of defender?

[qwints]

[qwints]

• saulres (3) -
  DoubleJD, havingfitz, The Rufflig
  
• D3f3nd3r (3) -
  Lord Mhork, qwints, saulres
  
• Lord Mhork (2) -
  sword_of_omens, Plessiez
  
• havingfitz (0) -
  
  
• qwints (0) -
  
  
• Phillammon (0) -
  
  
• Plessiez (0) -
  
  
• sword_of_omens (0) -
  
  
• DoubleJD (0) -
  
  
• The Rufflig (0) -
  
  
  
• Not Voting (2) – d3f3nd3r, Phillammon

Okay. I've tried to play impartial observer (no time for the promised saul post, sorry), so on the wagons. I personally think that of the four wagons going, I need time to look at saul (sorry again), and I still have a townread on mhork, in spite of what's being said. D3f3nd3r I still dislike on a number of counts that I already outlined, so that's where my vote is going.

VOTE: D3f3nd3r

PEdit: Wow, ninja'd by my own prod. That kinda sucks.

At the point where Phillammon votes D3f3nd3r, defender has just expressed support for a Mhork wagon and said he won't vote saulres despite saulres voting him. I switched to Mhork, making 3 tied wagons with D3f3nd3r not voting. Rufflig broke the tie and the deadline forced the Mhork as the only option with DoubleJD and HF coming along.

A D3f3nd3r or Phil saulres vote probably produces a saulres lynch and avoids the Mhork lynch.

All right, I'll buy town D3f3nder

UNVOTE: D3f3nd3rUNVOTE:
VOTE: HavingFitz

[qwints]

.

I can't get a solid read on sword, Mhork, D3f, or fitz. It's likely that there's exactly one scum in here.


Overall, the scum is split into these groups for me:

Two scum in pairs; either saul/guille or Ztife/Plez
One scum in {sword, Mhork, D3f, fitz}

Somewhat amusing in retrospect.

[qwints]

[qwints]

The grouping of sword, Mhork, D3f and fitz as having exactly 1 scum in them. It's a really old tactic to list 2 of your scum buddies in such a list such that the flip of one clears the other.

What's your take on 1)D3f3nder not going for the saulres wagon over either his own or Mhorks? 2) 2 scum being on his wagon when Mhork was lynched?

[qwints]

I don't think it's a useful tell, just that klick doing such an old tactic is "somewhat amusing." After all, even if I was certain he put 2 scum in that list, it doesn't help choose between you and defender or, for that matter, sword.

Here's why we're lynching you:

1) Saulres sent you a message and you said you didn't get it on a night with 2 nk's and a failed protect. That makes scum interfering with saulres's action less likely.
2) 957 where you pushed lynching a claimed beloved princess over a claimed 0-shot gunsmith.
3) The problems with the case on the 2nd most likely target (D3f3nder) listed above - didn't act like I'd expect scum to act on the Day 2 end of day wagons.

[qwints]

As I've implied, I think our best targets are d3fender and HF. I acknowledge that both have mitigating evidence (the saulres kill for HF and the D2 VCA for D3f3nder), but I think one of them is scum.

If somehow they're both town, I think that Lylo will be Plessiez, sword and Rufflig [scum have to kill a basically conf-town doc with a shot left first, and probably kill conf-town arc next]. This will be a difficult scenario for the same reason I don't think it'll actually happen - all of them pushed scum hard in situations where it wasn't really necessary. (sword and plessie v. mhork on d2/plessie and rufflig v phil on d.3)

D3f3nder's been really idle this game, so they might have just missed let the mhork wagon happen out of laziness or out a fear that they were committed to opposing the saulres wagon. So, I think they're 2nd most likely. But reading HF iso, you don't see real pressure on scum until it had to be there. In fact, he kept pushing for a saulres wagon over the Mhork wagon:

@Pless...why are you lamenting the lack of support for a saulres wagon when if you were to revote it he'd be at L-2? Instead you opt for a wagon of unknown support that is only L-4. Wtf? Especially with the deadline tomorrow.

He only gets on the Mhork wagon right before deadline when saulres was also online and available to hammer. The closest he gets to putting pressure on phil on d3 is saying one of mhork's buddies probably didn't bus so either phil or defender was scum. In fact, he voted rufflig after rufflig voted phil. And then there's the infamous move to lynch archangel before phil.

All in all, I think HF is most likely where we're going to find scum. Both his not getting saulres's message and his move to lynch the beloved princess are enough to justify lynching him in this situation.

[qwints]

Since I'll either die tonight or win the game with your lynch, I can't really promise anything for you self-hammering. I have to assume D3f3nder gets lynched faster if you do.

How about claiming?

[qwints]

And also explaining why you talked about self-hammering prior to claiming?

[qwints]

Unless qwints is a master busser who fakeclaimed doc and then left out a NK last night to 'confirm' his claim...I think he's pretty much guaranteed town. Which makes his current position on my wagon extremely fcuking annoying.

Krusty- 1 shot BP
And I'm not told if my 1 shot is used or not.

[]------- Time

[qwints]

In case it's not clear, if I'm HF and I'm bulletproof, I'm thinking a lot harder about scenarios where the shot was at me. Especially since qwints being an insane doc of some type helps explain what happened N2.

Krusty = Krusty the clown, a character on the Simpsons.

[qwints]

The point is that your behavior is completely incompatible with your stated role. Thus someone should hammer.

And just for you arcangel, Krusty

[qwints]

Your analysis of what happened last night doesn't account for the possibility that someone shot at you and you survived because you were bulletproof.

Yes D3f3nd3r, you should hammer.

[qwints]

Ok Einsteins...please go for D3f next. <shaking head>

If that's not game over, I plan to.

[qwints]

Well, if HF isn't just screwing with us, I'm dead tonight.

I'd suggest mass claiming tomorrow and deciding between a rufflig and def lynch, with a heavy preference to a def lynch. Perhaps working out what happened N1 will reveal whoever the final scum is.

[qwints]

Own your hammer.

[qwints]

I'll wait til people check in, but I don't see a good reason not to lynch HF again.

V/LA til Monday

[qwints]

I support the mass claim. Defender should go first.

[qwints]

Defender, why not guard arc after the beloved princess claim?

[qwints]

I am a x-shot doc.

[qwints]

I'm Professor Frink, 3-shot doc.

[qwints]

We still have time to lynch both Def and Fitz right?

[qwints]

Work in progress:

Name	Role
Comic Book Guy	Inventor
Groundskeeper Willie	PGO
Rainier Wolfcastle	Cop
Dr. Nick Rivera	Friendly Neighbor
Frink	Doc
Flanders	Bodyguard
Apu	Macho
Wiggum	Seeking Masonizer
Otto	Vig
Burns	Beloved Princess
Bulletproof	Krusty
Bus Driver*	Moe*
?	?

[qwints]

Name	Role
Comic Book Guy	Inventor
Groundskeeper Willie	PGO
Rainier Wolfcastle	Cop
Dr. Nick Rivera	Friendly Neighbor
Frink	Doc
Flanders	Bodyguard
Apu	Macho
Wiggum	Seeking Masonizer
Otto	Vig
Burns	Beloved Princess
Krusty	Bulletproof
Moe*	Bus Driver *
Smithers ?	Gunsmith

Okay, I agree that we're definitely dealing with jumbled roles here.

Non-obvious Explanations:
Rainier Wolfcastle is a macho action here.
Apu is known to get shot a lot and survive.
Burns has one extremely close confidant he frequently calls for.
Smithers would die to save Burns.

Conjecture: Even though scum have a fake name claim that fits, scum all have an actual role that corresponds to a role name (groundskeeper willie = janitor/otto=bus driver). That means that gunsmith fits one of the claimed names we have and that someone made up a role.

In this scenario we find which of PGO, Vig, Beloved Princess and Gunsmith doesn't match up to Comic Book Guy, Krusty and Moe.

[qwints]

Night 1

qwints protects Ztife.
Defender guards Plessiez.
Saulres targets HavingFitz.
Rufflig targets ?
Sword vigs Ztife

guille's 1-shot PGO?
Mhorks' 1-shot busdriver?
Phil's 1-shot gunsmith?
Mafia Kill

Result:

guille2015, Groundskeeper Willie, 1-shot activated PGO and member of the Town was killed Night 1.
Ztife, Rainier Wolfcastle, 3-shot Cop and member of the Town was killed Night 1
saulres blocked?

Night 2

Rufflig targets?

Mafia Kill

Result:

Saulres, Dr. Nick Rivera, 1-shot Friendly Neighbor and member of the Town was killed Night 2.

Night 3

qwints protects arcangel
defender guards plessiez

Mafia Kill?

Result

No death

Night 4

Mafia Kill
Janitor?

Result:
The Rufflig was killed Night 4 without a flip.

[qwints]

I said who I protected. It was the same both nights.

I don't buy Plessiez's claim because it seems like he wants me to get my protection elsewhere. I was getting a bit of trouble for who I was protecting. The claim seems town to me, but it seems false as well.

---------

If I had died, it wouldn't be that bad, considering that I'm being less useful to town than just about everyone else here.

1. What motivation would Plessiez have for getting your protection elsewhere?
2. Why did you protect Plessiez on nights 1 and 3?

[qwints]

Well, two things happened yesterday that require explanation - a janitor ability and a governor ability. Since Groundskeeper Willie would seem to be an obvious janitor, I think we're choosing between 2+3.

Also, who killed guile?

[qwints]

1) I would say that most of the mini's I've played in have 3 scum. I've seen 3 scum + a serial killer, but there haven't been enough nk's to account for a 3rd party.

2) We've got 6 alive. If we mislynch, and there's a nk and 2 scum remain we lose (we're at mylo today). If there's 1 scum left then it's mylo tomorrow.

[qwints]

Also, who killed guile?

Sword claims to have killed guille on night 1. Or am I misunderstanding the question?

I screwed that up in the night action chart. The question is instead: why did ztife die when I protected him when arcangel didn't?

[qwints]

Well, I really don't it think sword, but I owe it to myself to re-read after the analysis.

I'm still heavily leaning towards lynch HF again, then defender if the game's not over.

[qwints]

VOTE: havingfitz

Sword basically started and helped push through the Mhork lynch, and was gone for the Phil lynch after saying he would vote phil or defender. I don't see him as scum.

Too many strange things involving fitz have happened to leave him alive. There aren't enough scum powers/opportunities to explain

1)ztife's death despite me protecting him
2)HF not getting the message
3)HF not getting lynched
4)Rufflig not flipping

[qwints]

The reason I'm "in a hurry" to lynch is that I still think we're in the same place as yesterday - lynching defender and HF = town win.

More broadly, I don't think set up spec gets us anywhere because bulletproof, bodyguard, pgo, vig, macho and gunsmith are all too similar to be definitively match characters one:one. It's possible to match all characters to claims while leaving out bullet proof - it's got some rough matches, but everything will.

For what it's worth, I don't have a hidden agenda besides impatience here.

[qwints]

80BFFF

Name	Role
Comic Book Guy	Inventor
Groundskeeper Willie	PGO
Rainier Wolfcastle	Cop
Dr. Nick Rivera	Friendly Neighbor
Frink	Doc
Flanders	Bodyguard
Apu	Macho
Wiggum	Seeking Masonizer
Otto	Vig
Burns	Beloved Princess
Krusty	Bulletproof Janitor
Moe *	Bus Driver *
Smithers ?	Gunsmith

Comic Book Guy as gunsmith. Geeky knowledge.

Apu as PGO

He also has a bit of a paranoid nature, as evidenced by his once jumping behind a counter and then shouting threats to Bart and Lisa who were walking in to investigate a robbery that Krusty was framed for, and at least twice went up to the roof and started shooting his rifle at potential customers.

Moe as vig

Moe is especially bitter, keeping an enemies list nearly identical to that of Richard Nixon, with the addition of Barney. He has assumed a leading role in many of Springfield's angry mobs (including, at times, starting mob riots for the sake of doing so), and kidnapping Talking Heads vocalist David Byrne.

Krusty as beloved princess. Beloved children's television character.

[qwints]

I'm trying to link up characters with their "actual roles" instead of their assigned rules (frink - inventor, dr. nick - doctor) etc. The thought it that "janitor" is the logical counterpart for otto. I could come up with a scenario pretty easily were bodyguard isn't a real role.

Fitz makes a good point - saving himself and blocking rufflig's flip is pretty hard to stomach from one role. On the other hand, HF-town means more N1 effectiveness from scum (how'd they know HF was saul's target)?

[qwints]

So the guy who voted the scum says he never busses and the guy who didn't says he always does. That's hilarious.

[qwints]

I saw this as him referencing my breadcrumb.

qwints is most likely town for a reason that I'm not willing to give yet. (lol u c wut i did thar)

[qwints]

Looking back, I'm not buying HF's "I never bus" argument - Mhork was a deadline vote when other posters were ready to hammer; phil was a dominant strategy to lynch first. My vote will stay on HF.

[qwints]

D3f3nder can go first.

UNVOTE: havingfitz
VOTE: D3f3nd3r

[qwints]

We can start ruling out some scenarios now, right? Since plessy and sword haven't quick hammered?

[qwints]

Wouldn't it be hilariously awful if AA was a SK who just hadn't shot yet?

No lynch doesn't make sense at this point because our lynch pool is so small. D3f3nder's protects also don't make sense. We lynch him today, and then HF tomorrow if the game's not over.

[qwints]

Scenarios:

1 remaining scum

I'm convinced that lynching def and HF results in a win.

Plessy = town

1) scum claiming macho is stupid given that we've got two claimed protective roles
2) Plessy's interactions with Philhammon surrounding the counterclaim

Sword = town

1) Main impetus behind the mhork lynch
2) Only reasonable explanation we've had for ztife death

AA = town
1) Counterclaimed by scum
2) No night kill when protected

qwints = town
1) Actions on mhork and phil wagons
2) no night kill when claimed protection

2 remaining scum

Only possibilities per plessie:

[3a] qwintz and arcangel are scum; or

[3b] qwints and fitz are scum.

I have the benefit of knowing these aren't true, but y'all should consider whether either is likely enough to justify no-lynching.

1 mafia and 1 sk

We might as well call this the "sword's actually a serial killer scenario."

This is unlikely because

1) It requires no kills or identical targets on 3 of 4 nights
2) Sword's claim makes him extremely vulnerable. Scum know that he's the 3rd party if there is one.

And that is why I want to lynch Def or Fitz today.

[qwints]

Plessy and sword, what are you waiting for? Do either of you think scum is likely to be outside of HF and D3f?

[qwints]

I'l willing to lynch HF or D3f. Plessie and sword, y'all have to actually make a decision.

[qwints]

HF dies tomorrow.

[qwints]

Really frustrated with this game at the moment, but very well played by phil and AA.

Saul, thanks for modding.

[qwints]

Ser Arthur Dayne I mean.

[qwints]

Scum's two biggest successes:

1) Busdriving saulres's target [That was pure luck, right?]
2) The "counterclaim" followed by a no kill.

Regardless of the Judas thing, I think there was no way we found an AA lynch in time given #2.

HF, I'm still really confused why you didn't consider your bp-status as a possible reason for the no kill on N3.

[qwints]

I protected arcangel last night. I lied about how many shots I had.

Thanks!!! I was hoping that i would be night killed or something.

Ouch. This really hurts in retrospect.