Mini 1405: The Simpsons Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #28 (isolation #0) » Mon Dec 24, 2012 2:17 am

Post by guille2015 »

Hello

Vote MHork


Klick's self vote is null for him, he does it in pretty much every game he is as both Mafia and Town. It's usuallu used to catch tells like yours.

In post 12, Lord Mhork wrote:VOTE: Klick

For the self vote. Scum shall go down in a flaming mess. :D

Psst... Tell your buddies to bus you now and we'll go easy on them. :twisted:

Sounded a bit like RVS so I was going to let it slide for a while.

But then you confirmed as a sure thing. Saying you vaguely remember him do it seems like a cop out for when or if he flips town. But I do remember. He did that as Town in Open 455 and you said nothing about it. Actually you went after the player who voted for Klick because of that. I remember you were town in that game.
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Post Post #47 (isolation #1) » Wed Dec 26, 2012 3:41 am

Post by guille2015 »

In post 29, Plessiez wrote:
In post 28, guille2015 wrote:But then you confirmed as a sure thing. Saying you vaguely remember him do it seems like a cop out for when or if he flips town. But I do remember. He did that as Town in Open 455 and you said nothing about it. Actually you went after the player who voted for Klick because of that. I remember you were town in that game.

This is a misrepresentation. Both of this game and, funnily enough, of the game you link to.

(1) At no point has Mhork "confirmed as a sure thing" his vote on Klick. Quite the opposite, really: in he says he is "36% sure" (so not very sure); he begins by saying "oh, and more serious.." (with the obvious implication that he
wasn't
serious in the earlier post).

(2) In Open 455 Klick did self-vote, and another player (Disturbed_One) did vote for him. But Mhork didn't vote for Disturbed_One
because
of this -- in fact, he only voted Distrubed
after
D_O, under some pressure, moved his way
away
from Klick. Mhork actually says "Dude ... I was with you up until that horrid last vote". That is, rather than voting D_O for his Klick vote, he implies he supported it.

1) Perhaps not a sure thing, but the intent that it was serious, even if just 36% was clear. The words "More Serious" means that the previous was serious.
2) This is correct, I was remembering just the vote. After reviewing the post his intent seemed that Klick's vote is scummy. Regardless, I am satisfied with were I am.

So, are you saying that his vote is nonsense and should be treated as such?
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Post Post #62 (isolation #2) » Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:22 am

Post by guille2015 »

In post 55, sword_of_omens wrote:Guille, you were pretty specific about your Morkh vote…I find it difficult to believe that if you remember the game and especially the who voted who’s , then it would seem you would remember the why’s…especially if you are using it as a reason for your vote.

Memory is fallible. I recognized my mistake. And its not like something that couldn't be check for veracity.
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Post Post #95 (isolation #3) » Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:27 am

Post by guille2015 »

I'm sorry, I haven't had the chance to get to dedicate to this game. I will get to it tomorrow when I get back to the office. End of year wrap up work and coming vacation has me in overtime. I'll get to this game tomorrow.
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Post Post #103 (isolation #4) » Sat Dec 29, 2012 5:40 am

Post by guille2015 »

By post , I knew that my argument was pointless to the point of it being ineffective. So, 47 was an attempt to keep it alive until LordM responded. I wanted to see where the conversation led me concerning Lord and others.

Plessiez
: Pointing out my mistake, I find it as a good sign. Null for this at least. This has been pointed out later but considering that DoubleJD and Fitz RVS was suspect and not including Ruffling in the mix for doing essentially the same thing is note worthy. It's inconsistent of your point of view but I think I understand why you did it like that. I think that Plessiez responded () well to Saulres position, on his Buddying with LordM. I really like your post #. I see what you did with Klick, and I see what you did with me. The more serious part is debatable, but I consider that if you say something is more serious, I can assume that the prior is serious to a lesser degree. Would LordM saying after wards that it was not serious a cop out? Are you going to say something about Ruffling's #?

Klick
: I am always careful of Klick. Because I always tend to think he is town. Are you going to bitch about the walls again?

Baby Spice
: RVS after plenty of discussion going on, noted. Still, perhaps she hasn't read anything and just wanted to post something to get a start on it. If seen this before and it's null but noteworthy. Ah, so it wasn't RVS. I think you should have been more explicit. I understand what you mean. I'd have to check out Defender more thoroughly.

Ruffling
: I agree with Saulres that Plessiez should have considered Ruffling as ignoring discussion. Noted vote for defender without explanation. I am not satisfied with his excuse later on about this. Ruffling's # is ok. I kinda want to see what PL (I cant decide how to write your name in shorthand) thinks of this. So voting for Saulres after prompted. I find this suspicious.

DoubleJD
: Responding to your post : Basically my first paragraph here explains it. 47 was a way to respond to Pl and not lift my vote on LordM until he responded. I don't want to go, Ah well my bad, unvote, and have LordM go about uncontested. I agree with your post .

Fitz:
" I do not recall ever being in one before." I think Phineas and Ferb had a bastard feel to it, but I don't think it was published as such though.

Lord M
: Post : You should know better than any of us if your vote on Klick was serious or not. I assumed it was serious because of your use of the words "More Serious" but that might be a cultural difference between us. Ah man, I kinda wanted you to point out where I was wrong. I guess you simply swept it away since Pless made the argument for you.

Defender
: I don't see consistency in his play regarding the name claiming. For the record, I am not in favor of mass name claiming, but I am in favor of suspicious players claiming.

Sword of Omens
: I remember that he voted for the scum because I was scum in that game. It was my mistake that I didn't read thoroughly, I just remembered that he voted which is what I claimed. So, my bad for not double checking.

Anyone I missed I didn't find prominent to include in this post, and I'm on a tight schedule. Currently, I am considering LordM as Null leaning scum mostly because he did not respond to the discussion like I expected. He just said, "What Plessiez said" and left it at that. I find most suspicious Ruffling and Ztife. Ztife basically for DoubleJD who I have as a town read along with Plessiez. Defender has been on the fence about the name claiming, and that is suspect IMO. Somebody (I think Ruffling) said that it seems like it was testing the waters, and I agree with this. Ruffling's vote for Saulres seems like a stretch, I liked his vote on Defender better.

Vote Ruffling
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Post Post #104 (isolation #5) » Sat Dec 29, 2012 5:42 am

Post by guille2015 »

I will be VLA until January 10th. I will try to be up to date throughout my vacation as I will be able to check the internet. It really depends on whether my wife is annoyed by it or not.
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Post Post #143 (isolation #6) » Tue Jan 01, 2013 8:06 am

Post by guille2015 »

In post 140, Plessiez wrote:
Happy new year, everyone!
Now, where was I ...

is clearly a post made in a hurry. But I think it's a post made by scum in a hurry, rather than town -- some of the oversights and omissions are hard to explain otherwise.

The structure of 103 suggests it's either a list of reads or a list of responses to pressing questions. But a closer look shows that it isn't either one. Some of the entries on the list are pure filler (the entry addressed to Klick says so little about this game it could easily have been written before the game began; the entry about havingfitz is just a reference to a past game they both played in) some offer no thoughts at all (the entry addressed to Baby Spice doesn't give any opinion on her alignment or ask her any questions), and some entries are clearly about other people than the person named (the Sword of Omens entry is about Mhork, for instance).

Why would town in a hurry include this sort of padding and filler? The scum motivation is clear, however -- guille was in a hurry to create a post that
looked good
. So he came up with the format first, a list which suggested he had lots to say to everyone, and then he struggled to find things to include.

In post 103, guille2015 wrote:Anyone I missed I didn't find prominent to include in this post, [...] I find most suspicious Ruffling and Ztife. Ztife basically for DoubleJD who I have as a town read along with Plessiez.

So guille claims that Ztife is one of his two top suspects. (In fact both his top suspects are popular, safe choices). But Ztife
doesn't appear on the list of names
at all! That seems very strange. Why list nine other players -- and include things like the Klick entry -- and forget to mention one of your
top suspects
? Well, maybe the list was just of the more active posters? No, that doesn't work either. guille lists people like Sword of Omens and havingfitz (who each had four posts at the time) and yet doesn't have time to give an entry for Saulres (who had
fourteen
, many of them quite long, and was clearly one of the most active players in the game).

I'm happy with my vote where it is. But some questions for guille (if he finds time to reply during his V/LA):

(1) What do you think of saulres, and why did you not list him in ?
(2) What exactly did you mean by "Anyone I missed I didn't find prominent to include in this post"? Why made Klick "prominent" but saulres and Ztife non-prominent?
(3) For that matter, what do you think of qwints (who is the only person you don't mention at all in 103)?
(4) You say Ztife is a suspect "basically for DoubleJD who I have as a town read". What does this mean? You have a town-read on DoubleJD so you feel compelled to echo his suspicions? What is the case on Ztife?
(5) At the top of this post, you say:

In post 103, guille2015 wrote:By post , I knew that my argument was pointless to the point of it being ineffective. So, 47 was an attempt to keep it alive until LordM responded.


Why would you want to keep alive an argument you've already decided is pointless? What's the town-motivation? Am I just not reading this properly?

Well, yes, I was in a hurry. Because I knew that I was not going to have time to reread the pages. My process was to read through the pages and comment on what I thought relevant and noteworthy split by players. If I missed someone it likely because I had nothing to say about that person at the time. This could mean that I didn't see anything or there was nothing. The fluff on klick and fitz is because I have a hard time reading them so I need to taunt them. And it's fun too. Basically I am writing what I want to say.

1) I found nothing suspicious at the time. So I didn't focus any attention on it. I'll do an ISO on him later this week see if there is something.
2) see above.
3) He barely said anything. I notice that he has a lengthy post in 66. I am in agree ment with his defender vote and discusses pless/klick/LM thing. Other than that I can't really say much. I'd like for him to post more.
4) Qtf on double. If I remember correctly I added the ztife suspicion after reviewing my 103 post. I noticed I missed him but my suspicions were the same as double, so I had to leave it at that.
5) I wanted LM to opine on my argument. Trying to see if I catch him fumbling. It took so long that by 103 it was pointless. It wasn't by 47 when I kept the argument alive.
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Post Post #235 (isolation #7) » Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:43 am

Post by guille2015 »

I am back from VLA. I seem to have miscalculated. I'll catch up during the day. This is my priority game right now, so I'll likely post my recap here first.
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Post Post #252 (isolation #8) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 5:30 am

Post by guille2015 »

After reviewing Ruffling, He is looking town to me. Not particularly suspicious of him anymore. My suspicion early on can be explained as normal town play. The most prominent thing I was suspicious of was his vote on saulres after being prompted to do so. I find it that scum tend to give suspicions and not vote. Considering his play later on, He is an active player and his methodology is consistent and sound. I don't agree with him not giving an explanation for his town reads but I expect that if it's needed he will.

Unvote


On with reading: I am generally writing as I read.

In post 152, havingfitz wrote:In guille's response to Pless' 103 analysis he says he was taunting me. @guille...how was your Post 103 taunting me? All you did was point out another game I was in that, to you, had a bastard feel to it (though I never felt like it was).
It was a good win for us though! :)).
By taunt, I mean forcing a reaction from you. It's not a strong influence, just that I am trying to get certain reactions from the players I have a hard time reading. It's also for fun.

The thing with Defender from My point of view, from the times I've played with him as town, he has always done a lousy job at defending himself (Pun intended). I don't recall playing with a scum defender. I don't feel like he is playing the same as he has done in the past games with me, but this in itself is not a scum-tell.

In post 163, Ztife wrote:I would assume that scums knows their scum buddies and therefore also know who are town, so my reasoning is that I don't see why a name claim would hurt town.
Mass name claim is bad. You claim when you are threatened to get lynched. This discussion was had in my Phineas and Ferb game. I was given the fake Phineas and was masoned(neighbored) to a town Ferb. As soon as everyone claimed we pretty much guessed at all of the powers, except on the one player who refused to claim, to which we were scared of having a valuable power. We knew who the cop was very early in that game, so I find it that the characters in this game would have powers that can be easily inferred. Early Mass claims is a disadvantage to town unless you are guaranteed that scum have no fakeclaims.

In post 177, Lord Mhork wrote:@guille
What did you mean by 'catch [me] fumbling'?
Sometimes scum fumbles the answers because they are nervous of being in the spotlight. I wanted to create the illusion that you were still in the spotlight in order to catch you if you got nervous.

Pless is taking on Ztife and Saulres on his own. His arguments are sound and I totally agree with them. Ztife's arguments on why the massclaim should be done are bad. However, I don't see scum pussing for a massclaim even if they have fake claims. At best they'd remain on the sidelines. And oh, plot twist on Saulres (). His explanation is consistent. At the time, he wasn't in a big threat to getting lynch. I think he just had 2 votes. So, his timing is consistent with his plan failing. His post does not look like one that was retconned. It is plausible though, so I am wary still. I don't particularly agree with everything Pless said about it. Something might come up later.

On Ztife, I completely disagree with his Massclaim argument. He spends most of his time talking about that.

On Saulres, I am not comfortable with his lynch. There is contradiction in his vote and his stance on Defender. But his explanation makes sense to me. It is possible that this has been retconned but I don't see any holes in it.

Reading further. Pless's clears some things for me. My problem origially was that I remember Saulres saying that he had something planned for Ztife. When I checked back to check for timing, I noticed that that this was post , which is consistant with Pless theory. At first, reading 178, I thought saulres had the Idea to entrap Ztife since 96. However, given that it was not clear. The trap was set after 118 and he failed to give scum reads earlier. So I can understand the position that this could have been a retcon. The lack of giving a scum read on ztife makes sense to this. Additionally, post sounds like an appeal to emotion.

Ruffling's post is a good point against Ztife. 219 would have given him a valid reason to vote for Saulres. Yet he mentions later that he as a town read on Saulres, which he changes to a vote, due to his persistence. Personally I find persistence to be a town trait.

I think this is a good point to give my reads.
I find Ruffling, DoubleJD and Pless Town.
Fitz and Sword I am leaning Town on.
One of Saulres or Ztife are likely Scum. This sounds like an odd bus so I find it that at least one of them is scum. I do not think Saulres would bus Ztife like he did. I am more willing to vote for Ztife.
Anybody else is null.

So Finally:
In post 251, Ztife wrote:...
OMGUS

Vote: saulres
...


Yes I am confortable in picking a side here and going for Ztife.
Vote Ztife
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Post Post #259 (isolation #9) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 10:01 am

Post by guille2015 »

In post 257, Plessiez wrote:(The continued "writing as you read" style makes guille's post 252 difficult to follow, too. I mean, why say in the same post that you "totally agree with" my argument on saulres, that you are "not comfortable with" lynching saulres, and then conclude that "one of saulres or Ztife are likely scum"? What are we meant to take away from that? Is this something you do regularly, guile?)

Yeah, it happens when I am catching Up. I haven't found a method that I am comfortable with in catching up so I tend to change it every time depending on my mood. I apologize if it is hard to follow. Here is my thought process as I was reading the Pless/Saulres/Ztife thing.

I agree with Pless on his attack and suspicion on Saulres. When Saulres did his plot twist, I read it trying to gather any "plot holes" if you will. I didn't find that many and it makes sense especially when I remembered that Saulres was annoyed that Pless was questioning him about Ztife. It makes sense, and retconning something like that is impressive. I read Pless's first post rebutting it, and I disagreed with it. Mostly because Pless only point out how Saulres complained about Ztife avoiding his questions when he avoided Pless's. Reading Pless's Second Post rebuting the time frame was much better. And with that I understood where Pless was coming from. There and after reading through the later posts I noticed a few things. First, that Saulres did not dispute that the time frame was as Pless specified, Second, the post that I remembered Saulres saying he was annoyed at Pless questioning for Ztife came after Saulres devised the trap, and lastly, appeal to emotion and the possibility that this could still be an elaborate retcon. Those three points make me suspicious enough not to trust 100% of what Saulres is saying. I am not confortable with his lynch because that makes me uneasy. Given that i find that Ztife vs Saulres is unlikely to come from a Scum vs Scum position, I am going with the prospect that at least one of them is scum. And since I wont vote for Saulres (with the current information), Ztife is my vote.
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Post Post #262 (isolation #10) » Tue Jan 08, 2013 10:23 am

Post by guille2015 »

In post 261, saulres wrote:There are still some outstanding questions on your 103, guille. Specifically, in here.

I thought I answered everything. Since It was on an iPad I might have missed something. Tell me what you want to know.
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Post Post #284 (isolation #11) » Wed Jan 09, 2013 10:56 am

Post by guille2015 »

saulres wrote:
That's not the reason you gave when you placed the vote. You made it appear that you didn't like Ztife's OMGUS vote of me and that's what made you choose to vote him over me. Which is the correct reason?
Plessiez wrote:
Right, see ... what's missing here is
why
you think Ztife is scum. Can you explain that? (And should the bolded read "at most"? Pretty sure that's what you meant to say, anyway, and I'm replying as if you did.)

This post seems to only make sense if the reader assumes one of Ztife and Saulres
has
to be scum. You say that you're inclined to trust saulres's claimed "trap". You say you're not "100%" sold, but wouldn't be "comfortable" with his lynch. And you say that Ztife vs Saulres is unlikely to be "scum vs scum".

But none of that explains your Ztife vote. Your logic is:

* I don't think A is scum.
* I don't think A and B are both scum.
* Ergo, B is scum.

But this is not a correct inference. Why do you rule out the possibility that A and B -- that is, saulres and Ztife -- are both town? What makes that impossible, in your eyes? And if it's not impossible, what is your actual reason for suspecting Ztife? And why didn't you include it in this post?

I don't think that saulres is scum buddy with Ztife because Saulres brought Ztife into the spotlight. I have not seen a scum bus done this way. It is possible that it is a Town vs Town situation, so I have considered it,

My reason for voting for Ztife is not because I am assuming that Saulres is town, but rather because I am not suspicious of anyone else. Here are why I am suspicious of Ztife. Some of it is gut. I am also in agreement with Pless when he goes after Ztife and Saulres. Basically, there are inconsistencies in the arguments. I don't know if he is pushing for a name claim or not. He says that he is not, but his posts says otherwise. This makes me think that he is on the fence for mass name-claiming, the same reason he is voting for Defender. He attacks inactivity as lurking, when he himself is mostly inactive. A little bit because he wants a mass claim, but that is not a scum-tell, just a "keep an eye on" tell. What he suggest for massclaiming is dangerous in this type of games, and he words it with, "it might hurt, it might not". His OMGUS vote on Saulres is clearly an OMGUS vote. Basically the only reason he is voting for saulres is because he is accusing him of being scum.

This and because I don't have other suspicions is why I am voting for Ztife. I hope that is clearer.
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Post Post #287 (isolation #12) » Wed Jan 09, 2013 11:01 am

Post by guille2015 »

In post 282, Baby Spice wrote:Here was me hoping #210 was something worthy.
It's not.

What do you mean by this?
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Post Post #352 (isolation #13) » Fri Jan 11, 2013 1:53 am

Post by guille2015 »

In post 326, saulres wrote:I'm a friendly neighbor. Tonight I will pick someone and the mod will confirm me as town to them. If that person is alive tomorrow they'll confirm me.

This is a provable power. You should pick correctly Saulres.
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Post Post #353 (isolation #14) » Fri Jan 11, 2013 2:12 am

Post by guille2015 »

In post 347, Ztife wrote:Waiting for a day doesn't mean much for saulres claim. What if he is confirmed town to a scum? What the player he pick dies?

Too many possibilities imho.

Whether you guys believe the power is real or not. Whether it actually is or not, is something that can be confirmed tomorrow, so voting saulres today is dumb, even if the power is fake. at worst it will just delay his lynch to day 2. Woopity effing doo. If he confirms to town then he is town, if he confirms to scum, although he could be scum, but whatever he is the scum target will say he is town. If his target dies, well, he gets lynched. Had this been day 3 or 4, the situation would have been different.
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Post Post #356 (isolation #15) » Fri Jan 11, 2013 3:43 am

Post by guille2015 »

You seemed to have missed my following post.
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Post Post #358 (isolation #16) » Fri Jan 11, 2013 3:54 am

Post by guille2015 »

I'm assuming that's not a question. And you meant to say "No!". Then your premise that I didn't have anything to say about it is false.
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Post Post #361 (isolation #17) » Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:39 am

Post by guille2015 »

In post 359, Plessiez wrote:The one in which you essentially say nothing.

It is clear to me that you are reading everything I say with a bias on me being scum. That's fine, I do that too. If you want to think that that post is fake or that it has no content, so be it. I disagree with you, but regardless it's what I wanted to say at the time.
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Post Post #378 (isolation #18) » Fri Jan 11, 2013 9:20 am

Post by guille2015 »

Trying to figure out if I am buying that claim or not. A cop is >> greater than my role. But the way he claimed is iffy.

I find the character Odd, It doesn't fit the cop much, just a little I guess. Wiggum is a better fit, although incompetent in the series.

Claiming a role like that is advantageous for scum since they either out the real cop or survive for the next day.

He just came in with a claim and left. Hasn't comeback again to counter or promote any argument.

However, I am in agreement with Klick that you shouldn't lynch a cop. The potential for them having a valid result is high. Besides, they can be lynched on day 2 if suspicion is higher.

I need to review my case on him. But I'll unvote for now.

Unvote


That will mean that I am up for lynching. That is fine, the information we can get is worth the sacrifice. Just start thinking what other information there is for when I flip town. For starters, I'd concentrate on Qwints for his reason for voting me. Check out his ISO, it's quite easy to read.
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Post Post #399 (isolation #19) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 3:48 am

Post by guille2015 »

Fitz, what's your read on Qwints?
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Post Post #405 (isolation #20) » Sat Jan 12, 2013 6:08 am

Post by guille2015 »

I am uncomfortable with Ztife leaving like he did.
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Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2896
Joined: April 17, 2012
Location: DR

Post Post #1290 (isolation #21) » Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:40 am

Post by guille2015 »

Oh mo, not another loss in the same night. :(

Man. I kept saying in the dead QT that Arc Angel needed to die before LyLo or MyLo. But Oh well, I saw DoubleJD as town. Hmmm.

I won't complain about the balance. I think it was well centered. Swingy but well centered. Good strategy from scum Phil.

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