Mini 1538: POWERFUL WIZARDS (SpyreX Lives!)
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Was this serious and am I missing something? I would think that with half the players necessary to make the lynch happen, the odds are only about 7% that no scum would see it to submit the kill (actually much lower since the "lynch wagon" was not in agreement with the first vote), whereas town would potentially lose PR actions. Even if that 7% happened, you can't say anything valuable like "everyone on the wagon was town" because of the possibility of a no-kill.In post 11, Tierce wrote:I got an issue with you not voting for a lynch on Instant Night, yeah.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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I disagree fully on the quicklynch idea, but we can run by the argument/evidence for its merits post-game.
Townreading kanye for resistance to the flow.
Not sure I get the meta thing, Sean. Looks like you're generally ok with not posting anything of value until you see something of note, is that it?
Katsuki wagon is meh, but what is 68 supposed to mean, plum?-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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I don't get the scumread on me, but whatever.
Either sean or dan is clear, I'd guess probably sean. SSK and Tierce get a town-push too. It looks to me like fate was lining up a tunnel that he wouldn't be
Fate obviously thought it was a fake dayvig, so the whole scumteam probably thought similarly given daytalk. It took a while before the flip, so I'm inclined to think that as time went on, the scumteam became more and more confident that it was fake. I think we might be seeing that in linger's posts, culminating at 265. I'm not feeling the same about Katsuki, who held a much more stationary stance, and a much riskier one.
I don't get the dream thing, tammy, reference to another game or to fate's flavor?
VOTE: linger-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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I thought it had a solid chance of being fake, I'm amazed she was confident enough to do a real one.In post 301, kanyeknowsbest wrote:that was a really obvious real vig. i know youve seen enough fakevigs to be able to identify real ones.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Why is this not against code if he's scum? I would agree with your final statement regardless of his alignment.In post 251, Tierce wrote: ...
Katsuki, Fate called LLD an "it" deliberately, knowing that for LLD gender is an important issue. I'd really like to know how you think that not wanting to play with a Town player who does that is a low blow on my end. Even if he flips scum, that is a disgusting move, but one I can more or less understand in light of his win con. As Town? Fuck no. And no, I am deathly serious about that, and you only need to go to FWAN to realize that it's not a joke for me. I'm not taking advantage of it, I have a freaking moral code and I hate this is being brought into question. Personal attacksareagainst site rules.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Sean has one post, how do you have a town read on him?
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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The meta-heaviness and appeal to authority of the first many pages drove me away from this game, largely.
I don't think katsuki is scum due in large part to the conversational aspects in the 140s, which doesn't really feel to me like they had daychat. This is not super-strong, and is probably trumped by the vets meta-impressions, but if I were playing in a vaccuum, that's what I'd go with.
My opinion is still that fate believed the dayvig had a strong chance of being fake, and I would expect the opinion to be shared among the scumteam. This is largely why I haven't moved my vote from linger.
Why are linger and porkens town, and why is plum scum?
p-edit: Am I really an asset? I've done very little -_--
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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[/quote]In post 455, Tammy wrote:
this doesn't match up with you doing mason searching once the first few pages were over.In post 451, Kagami wrote:The meta-heaviness and appeal to authority of the first many pages drove me away from this game, largely.
that was really obviously a real dayvig, actually.kagami wrote:
My opinion is still that fate believed the dayvig had a strong chance of being fake, and I would expect the opinion to be shared among the scumteam. This is largely why I haven't moved my vote from linger.
The mason-search felt like one of the things that was easily within reach, and I'm happy with my conclusion. I'm less happy that people think it's "bad play," given that the result of that particular conversation was very negative in terms of improving the gamestate; whereas simply being forthright would have brought an improvement.
I spent a fair bit of time diving on tierce, and ultimately decided that it wasn't worth it since my efforts were extremely superficial compared to the extensive experiential meta that same players have with her. That's what I meant with the meta-heaviness complaint. I actually really like meta, it just feels wasted here.
If it was really obviously a real dayvig, then why did lnnngr and katsuki pretend it was fake?
I assumed it was real, but after a few hours of no mod-post together with LLD continuing to post to fate caused some doubts to creep in; I wouldn't be surprised if scum felt the same.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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I somehow got the wrong interpretation from 131, you're right; you didn't. 200 is still somewhat incriminating, but tammy's point isn't a bad one. I would think that pushing kanye as a scum strategy would come with the intent to be ignored by everyone, yet you seem actually bothered that you aren't being answered. If it weren't for the request to let be those on LLD's town list, I would agree with you, too.In post 460, LnGrrrR wrote:Where did I pretend the dayvig was fake?
UNVOTE:-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Why is SSK a good vote? Do we really think tierce-katsuki is town on town?
If it's not, then we're seriously going to lynch trying to hit one target among 8 suspects rather than 1 among 2? Even if we're going to vote people other than that pair, plum is much more suspect than SSK, and 480 means that plum scum => tierce & katsuki not scum, which has a nice informational component.
I really don't like 491, tierce. You're basically saying: Lynch me or SSK. I don't see a decent argument against SSK, and certainly not a better one than there is against plum or sean (except the LLD town list).
VOTE: Tierce-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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I'm willing to switch to Katsuki too, if we resurrect that wagon. As much as I dislike 491, katsuki is actively lurking, and hasn't contributed anything, which is altogether worse. It's still coinflippish to me, but if katsuki is scum, having near conftown-tierce with us day 2 is much stronger than near conftown-katsuki, if today's activity is any indicator.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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People are reading, they just aren't posting. I bet almost everyone on your list will show up between now and deadline.
I think you could have called for everyone to take a stance on tierce-katsuki just as easily and tierce-ssk. Plum, Tammy, and Porkens are all easily active enough to move when needed.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Reviewing the thread to think about this more. I expect a slowish day at work, deadline isn't coming that quickly for me.In post 502, Tierce wrote:Kagami, if you want to change to Katsuk, it has to be now. Same to you, SSK.-
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Wouldn't it be no worse for her to do so at the beginning of day 2?In post 503, ActionDan wrote:meep. Plum should lock herself into a claim-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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@Porkens
I just don't think the probability that both tierce and katsuki are town is high enough to justify another vote. If you assume that tierce vs katsuki is not town vs town, there are two populations of players with one scum in each:
population A: {tierce, katsuki} - 2 people
population B: {actiondan, porkens, kagami, plum, ssk, sean, kanye, tammy, lngrrr} - 9 people, one of whom is a mason
I'd much rather shoot among A than B. SSK hasn't exactly inspired my confidence, but neither has several people in B.
If they are town vs town, then my money would be on plum-scum over ssk scum anyway.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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In post 521, Porkens wrote:
Sorry, but can you explain/point to the explanation of why?In post 514, Kagami wrote:@Porkens
I just don't think the probability that both tierce and katsuki are town is high
For one, they've been more independently scummy than anyone in list B. Katsuki has been actively lurking in addition to his strong pro-fate stance, inexplicable anti-tierce stance, and has generally been reluctant to do anything remotely townish. Tierce, meanwhile, made the "fate is scum" push only during the daykill twilight, and has generally been raising little red flags for me with her posts.
More to the point of why that particular pairing is better than any other scummy pairing is that their interaction strongly implies that at most one of them is scum, which increases the probability that there is scum in the group, and also that the unyielding nature of their push on one another is unusual for town v town (though not unheard of). There's just too much certainty there.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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I think Tierce has tried to get out of it.In post 540, Porkens wrote:
By the same logic, though, why would either of them, as scum, get into that fight?In post 524, Kagami wrote:I don't think they'd be powerbussing on day 1 given that one of their buddies is dead. A lone scum is so vulnerable to trackers, blockers, etc, that it would just be too much of a risk, imo, and almost certainly not worth the towncred.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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This seems like a bit of a silly poke. Regardless of your alignment, I'm pretty sure you know I'm town.In post 543, Tierce wrote:...
I'm concerned with how you had these points about morality and me being Town and now you're sitting with a vote on me as deadline nears and don't actually seem to have reviewed the game.
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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This should be obvious. You're input is necessary, and saying this caused you to appear.In post 552, Katsuki wrote:
any particular reason why?In post 548, Kagami wrote:btw, Iamswitching to katsuki if he doesn't make an appearance before I go to sleep tonight.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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The mason will obviously die tonight, not me.In post 568, Tierce wrote:Whynotworry about it, Kagami? Why are you convinced you'll be around Tomorrow, if you're that convinced you look Town that I should know you to be so?
Porkens, for someone who said he'd lynch pretty much anyone, you're being pretty etc.
The nutshell of the argument is that in my somewhat quick review of tierce lynches, a common theme for scum-tierce is to distancehard.-
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If this is true, I think it more or less has to be kanye-tammyIn post 766, Porkens wrote:I'm town, move on.
Gamma's been hitting a lot of town notes for me since the replace in
I think ssk's 756+757 is legit; a brief meta-dive doesn't show ssk faking little townslips like this as scum
I agree with Tammy's reasoning on lnngrr, in addition to agreeing with the questions he's asked. It would be odd for scum to be pushing kanye when it was so clearly an unpopular wagon.
The Tierce kill is also a little odd. With both katsuki and plum flipping town, it wouldn't be too hard to pin suspicion on Tierce. The kill suggests that the killer was worried that her reads would change the game-state unfavorably, and/or was happy with the final state of her position. Could just be that they generally didn't want a strong player around, so idk.
VOTE: kanye-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Your first point is sort-of true. I was legitimately mystified by what seems like an obviously terrible strategy, and it's subsequent defense by Tierce, but I concede that I did little to advance the game-state. The same argument could be made against every single person who is currently alive, though, excluding perhaps yourself.
Regarding your second point, the first quote is very different from the latter two. In 768 I'm just laying out my two best scumspects and giving reasons why. I'm not saying we need to lynch them, and am looking for counterpoints, such as that which you provide in 771.
In 514, I am doing what you criticize, and was obviously wrong, but I don't see the real scum motivation in that relative to alternatives (most notably, letting deadline hit with lots of 2-man vanity wagons). 497 points out that {SSK, tierce} was neither a good, nor necessary lynchpool at that time, and it looked to me like she was forcing a decision between herself and SSK where she believed she had positional advantage. I still think ssk is town, and I was clearly correct that other lynches were viable given that we actually lynched katsuki.-
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Eh? I think if I had said "I want to lynch Kanye or Tammy," you'd be equally critical, no?
If I had been made king last night, and could unilaterally execute someone, I would not immediately do it two pages into day 2. I'd be asking the town, especially those who I'm reasonably confident are town, what their reads/opinions are, just as I do above.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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It's very difficult for me to interact with just about everyone but porkens, since I can only really post during work hours and then a little bit after my son goes to sleep most nights. Most everyone else seems to be active almost exclusively past midnight. I see little chance of scum slipping up if given 12+ hours to think about their response, especially given daychat.
re: 812. At the time, and still now, I just didn't think ssk was scummy. I still haven't heard a reasonable argument against him, and have only seen evidence in his favor. The point in 561 was that meta-diving scum-tierce revealed a strong tendency for her to distance extremely hard from her scum-buddy as suspicion fell on her, which would implicate ssk. Otherwise, there was not, and still isn't, any good reason to vote him, imo.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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Don't you think this is a little hypocritical?In post 804, Tammy wrote:kagami's lack of doing anything in the game is troublesome.-
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Kagami Jack of All Trades
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A lot of my reasoning there is PoE, but there are a couple of things that bother me.
First is the "LLD's reads are dope" remark, which was kind of ridiculous. While I'm reasonably impressed that LLD hit scum so early with her PR, her list was off the wall crazy. AD made sense as town due to masons, but the other town reads were goofy, and the scumreads equally so.
Also, there's kanye's active and immediate resistance to the turbo-lynch plan at the beginning of day 1, whereas he was happy to go along with it (at first) at the beginning of day 2. To his credit, he pointed out that it was dumb and changed his mind fairly quickly.
Lastly, there's the steadfast resistance to the katsuki lynch, which I don't think was warranted. No matter how you look at it, katsuki did nothing to indicate that she was town.
Altogether, it isn't a terribly strong argument, or I'd be pushing it harder. I'm mostly working off of townreads right now, which are ssk, pork, and lnngr. I want to know why people think ssk is scum, because I'm not getting that.-
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Also, it looks to me like the spell names are from tenebrae, and holy aura is a valid one, so I suspect that's what porkens has. He could have independently found the same list and faked that he was holy aura earlier or just guessed a random spell name, but the latter seems unlikely given that his "usage" of it corresponds with the apparent use of the tenebrae spell.-
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Shiny ability that would obviously go to town if he actually has it (which he might be able to demonstrate)
The daykill thing seems too ridiculous, but that could go either way, I guess. I could mod-spec a bit here about spyrex showing up as if to disprove its legitimacy, but it's quite likely that spyrex is not swayed by player actions re:VCs.
Silly as it is, 766 actually feels town to me. There are lots of people who make it a point to say they're town when scum, but porkens doesn't seem to be one of them (based on an earlier meta-dive). I know several players for whom such a declaration of towniness is almost always accurate, to the extent of being a trust-tell if intentional.
The vague, persistent suspicion of me always feels somewhat towny.
Only thing I'm not sure how to interpret is his complaint that I thought scum was likely in {tierce, katsuki}. From scum perspective, he'd be calling me out with the intent to push a lynch on me when I proved to be wrong, but he hasn't really done that with the sort of force I would expect, so I'm calling that towny too.-
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I mean that I'm not sure how exactly to interpret the very obviously fake daykill. Is it town being silly, or scum trying to look townish? Seems almost too bad for either one.
Wrt the mod-spec bit, I would ordinarily interpret spyrex's timely VC as a direct statement of "no, this was not a real dayvig," and speculate from there, but from I can tell of our mod, he does his best to avoid letting gameplay influence his posting behavior, so there's probably little to be said about it.