Mini 1566: Lunar Silver Star Story Complete (Game Over)
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Yo.
I basically know absolutely nothing about the game. (I found it accidentally, even. ) I just saw it was locked, it wasn't over, it was bork, it needed a replacement, and it was zMuff, and figured might as well. So, give me the rundown.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Kinda feel like voting Aegor.My academy.
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I agree with trying, though I'm concerned that it will not go as well as we're hoping. (For reasons that I think aren't too hard to figure out but I'd rather not say just in case.)In post 1980, Kdub wrote:I'd be OK with letting Mac confirm himself on penguin tonight.
Needless to say, the plan is good but I don't think it'll give us foolproof answers. They'll give us indicators, I'm sure, but not foolproof answers, circumstances depending.
That said, while I saw zMuff had aggression against Jake and Mac a little bit, I'm willing to on setup spec give both slots towncred. (Mac doesn't get towncred on play, which I haven't judged yet. PA's too new, and Jake is also unjudged.)
I'll have to look into the circumstances of the lynch before clearing Squirrel Girl, but it sounds plausible enough to be true. I'm certainly not lynching BROseidon since I feel the point about Godfather/Miller is true given the 1x cop, though this isn't absolute and seeing some :effort: from BROseidon would help a lot given he can give it as town. (That said, is nearly certainly town anyway since I know he's busy in real life.)
kdub vaguely looks town, and Aegor not-so-vaguely looks like scum.
I think the game will end with an Aegor lynch, but I also feel like we should make plans as a just-in-case it's not, to optimize our chances of a victory, here. Feels like we can set up an order that gives us a win or near-win guaranteed. But I'm not exactly in the loop and am not sure how much reading I want to do to figure this out.
Thoughts on it, though?My academy.
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(Oh. And Squirrel's current posting ALSO looks town, I should say.
And BROseidon's I'm also liking.
And kdub's also seems decently good.)My academy.
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/IioA. Someone who's actually been in the game longer can probably make more sense of this than I can.Spoiler: VCAMy academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Overall quick skim-vibe is overall bad for Aegor and maybe-bad for kdub, though.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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*grumble, grumble, make me check my inbox for something worthless, grumble, grumble*
Nash Rumack, a highly-appropriate description given to me being an arrogant neophyte sorcerer of the magic guild, where I'm a student. (Bah. I should be running an academy, not being a student at one!) All talk and no bite, with minimal skills at thunder magic. (Highly paraphrased, butyeah. VT.)
You should do it anyway. Chance of blocking kill is less valuable than chance of confirming self at this stage of the game.In post 2015, Mac wrote:Unless the entire town agrees it's for the best... until the obvious happens. (See mastin's post referencing this.)
I did some commenting before the site downage that I'd appreciate commentary on. Basically, of coordinating a strategy where we have the best chance of winning, along with some basic VCA that decently points towards Aegor for the last scum.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Oh, hey, I just realized that I'm actually somewhat-familiar with this game's flavor! I got really interested in playing the game and read the TVTropes page and all that. (The name Ghaleon sounded familiar, then I remembered from what.)
That actually would make a concern about BRO be valid, though, in that Ghaleon from a flavor perspective WOULD be a Godfather given that he was a hero and the heroes were blindsided by him actually being a villain. (His villainous reveal scene is the one that I watched a youtube clip of and got me obsessed with reading the TVTropes page for.) PROBABLY not something to be concerned about.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Well, I can't, because part of VCA is the circumstances behind the votes...which I know nothing about. I gave that VCA and noted potential trends in there, basically showing switches that I thought could be important. And wagon developments that could be, too. But me not being in the game at the time, I don't know about whether they actually were or not.In post 2027, Kdub wrote:mastin, I read your VCA, but a lot of your comments are just that certain VCs are "interesting" or something of the sort without further explanation. Can you summarize the VCs that you thought were most important and what those tell you about current players?My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Basically, I was hoping someone who was actually there could shed some light on the VCA I did. The switches and reversals and buildups I said were potentially relevant and all that. What I quoted were basically ones that I felt could be of importance, with ones of extreme interested noted.
Also, that also doesn't cover the other bit, about forming a plan, for today, if needed tonight, and if needed for future days. I'd rather not have us blindly lynch Aegor, have him flip town, and then be left with nothing. I'd much prefer we lynch Aegor and have the game end right then and there, but failing that, to have us lynch Aegor, and if he flips town, have a very strong idea of what that means and where to go from there.
Which I don't have.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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They're saying the same thing?In post 2032, Squirrel Girl wrote:In post 2026, mastin2 wrote:along with some basic VCA that decently points towards Aegor for the last scum.In post 2029, mastin2 wrote:
Well, I can't, because part of VCA is the circumstances behind the votes...which I know nothing about. I gave that VCA and noted potential trends in there, basically showing switches that I thought could be important. And wagon developments that could be, too. But me not being in the game at the time, I don't know about whether they actually were or not.In post 2027, Kdub wrote:mastin, I read your VCA, but a lot of your comments are just that certain VCs are "interesting" or something of the sort without further explanation. Can you summarize the VCs that you thought were most important and what those tell you about current players?My academy.
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Both?In [url=/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5912596#p5912596]post 2034[/url], Squirrel Girl wrote:I feel like 2026 is saying 'I presented VCA that shows that Aegor is scum'
I think 2029 is saying 'My VCA was presented to get opinions from others and I can't explain anything about it'
Which one do I have wrong?
The VCA shows a trend which I THINK points to Aegor, but it's based off of abstract (and largely arbitrary) things, making a ton of assumptions about the gamestate that I have no way of knowing actually hold water. So I brought it up mainly to see if others could shed some light on it.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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So basically. I kinda get a bit of a vibe. This is...well, a little hard to explain, but highly Xenoish in feeling, in that, well, I kinda get the feeling that today, we're going to lynch Aegor as a best-guess for scum, as a just-in-case, as the read we most likely agree on, that he has the highest chance of being scum (that's where I still feel like going, in fact)...
...But that he actually isn't. That in spite of me thinking that he could be scum that's trying to win a tough-to-win game, that in spite of me thinking he makes the most sense as scum, that in spite of me thinking that he's simply putting on a show and in spite of me thinking he kinda looks like obvscum at some times, that somehow he's actually town and that the game will go on after his lynch.
...And that in spite of feeling that way, we're going to lynch him anyway as a JUST-in-case.
Really kinda hard to explain that feeling, but I get the vibe that it means I can't just slack off here and actually have to do some work.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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So dealing in worst-cases,
We lynch Aegor, he flips town, someone's nightkilled;
We lynch Kdub (or Squirrel), (s/)he flips town, someone's nightkilled;
We go into lylo with three players, minus the nightkills.
ASSUMING (this is a bit of an assumption, though) that all three of the 'cleared' players are clear, that would necessitate one of them living to lylo, making it a 50/50 shot. (100% from my perspective, of course, but talking from objective terms, still 50/50.) But that does rely on the assumption of cleared players being clear.
Now, I THINK that Mac targeting PA can give us a reasonable window. It might not clear both players, but it can significantly increase the likelihood of their towniness. And from who the scum would target, I think we'd get a better idea of the gamestate. (They have to target one of the three conftown. If they're one of the conftown, then not targeting a conftown will create paranoia about conftown not being conftown, which the conftown-scum wouldn't want. If they're scum, they could try that to induce paranoia about the conftown not being conftown, but if said paranoia fails, then that'd leave two conftown alive in lylo to lynch the scum. Basically, not killing conftown is moderate-to-high risk, with low-to-moderate reward, so regardless of who the scum are, they're going to kill one of the conftown. Which conftown dies can be important, though. I just haven't fully figured out the math as to how.)
I'm thinking about it, and I kinda sorta want to try out lynching Kdub. But this is all without having really looked at any piece of the gamestate, for insight into how things went. I really was kinda hoping I could slack off this game, but it looks like I need to give a little bit of effort. (Note, though, that while I'm going to be giving a little bit of effort...I refuse to give a ton of effort. Builds stress, and isn't nearly as productive, and I have a life outside mafia games that it interferes with.)
This game's basically a near-certain town win, but I want it to BE that certain town win, AND for it to be that town win as quickly as it can be.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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So I'm isoing SMP. On the one hand, decently-powerful scum PR. On the other hand, pretty much no matter who the last scum is, definitely the weakest scum player on the scumteam and basically deadweight.
Looks potentially important, though.In post 273, SMP wrote:
I imagine it's because I'm one of the only ones he's played a game with.In post 266, BROseidon wrote:
Why the tunnel on SMP when I'd been equally inactive up to this point?In post 196, HighShroomish wrote:hmph...
SMP where are you? Why have you only had ONE post all game? I don't even think I'm usually this quiet, especially in a fast moving game like this.
Would SMP group two scumbuddies together like this?In post 336, SMP wrote:
This is a curious post. You don't deny what you were doing at all.In post 332, Aegor wrote:You just noticed? Why was my catboi vote the one that prompted a vote on me from you?
Does HKC always have so many posts, a decent percentage of which just kinda clog up the thread? I understand that walls are frowned upon, but a couple of those 1-2 sentence posts could be merged together to make things somewhat easier to read.
Jake interaction vaguely looks town, but no way of being sure. Aegor read also very vaguely looks town, but can't be certain. HKC was the scum-null-read, and I think this bit about BROseidon is decent enough to call BROseidon likely town outside the result on him.In post 581, SMP wrote:Jake, I can't even really disagree with you. If anyone else had the same amount of activity as me I'd probably think they were scum also. Unfortunately, I really just have been that busy this week.
I think there's one scum on my wagon at this point. Jake, you seem town motivated to me. Aegor seems to be in the same vein as Jake, though the no explanation votes earlier in the day are still somewhat worrying. I can't really get a read on HKC, there's so many filler posts that it's difficult to pull the worthwhile posts out.
That just leaves BROseidon. I think it's between him and whoever is controlling the ??? vote. BRO for the later in the game day middle vote (4th/7) that tends to push a wagon to L-1 and a claim. If a new wagon doesn't start up soon the original person usually gets lynched. It's not a strong read, but it's my strongest non-hidden voter read. Whoever controlling the ??? vote is my strongest scum read. They put their vote on me when it was only HighShroomish on it. If a wagon formed, great, they don't need to move it to help scum. If nothing came of it, they can just move their vote to the wagon that forms to quicklynch. Jake, you mentioned that you think you know who the ??? is, do you think they're town or scum?
Until I get a better understanding on who the ??? is I'm leaving a tentative vote on BRO.
VOTE: BRO
AKA, not scum vs scum.In post 822, SMP wrote:I leave for a couple hours and come back to Jake and HKC blowing up the thread with their half drunken town vs town exchange.
(Note, check Anti's reads. They tend to be awesome.) Seriously warming up to a kdub vote now.I like Anti's posts since coming into the game, though I'm not really getting the kdub read. Where are you getting that from Anti?
But I need to look over who's the claimed true-VTs in this game. We know this claim's truthful. I'm willing to bet the result is, too. Meaning the result of vanilla is going to be on one of our VT claims. (I know I'm one of 'em, but I also know there's another player who's claimed VT and nothing else; if that was Kdub [I can't recall off the top of my head], then there's that 50% chance that he was investigated.)In post 1189, SMP wrote:I'm odd night rolecop + reporter. Last night I got a vanilla role result from my target. I don't want to reveal the name since if they're town then I don't want scum to have a person who isn't a PR.
Definitely thinking PA's town from this, though.
In post 1216, SMP wrote:I targeted the Scar/Muffinman slot....Well, then.
Eh, screw it, might as well throw it out; it's not like he's in any danger of being lynched anyway.In post 1344, SMP wrote:
I"ll Nall. My exact role is Odd-Night Rolecop and Reporter. Yes, you're correct. A PR would return the role name while a VT/goon would only return that they're Vanilla.In post 1317, Kdub wrote:SMP, can you claim your flavor name and confirm that your role is specifically called "odd-night role cop and reporter"? And to confirm exactly how your role works, if you were to investigate a PR (of either alignment), you would get their actual role (e.g. "cop", "doctor", "roleblocker", etc.), but if you investigate a VT/goon, you get "vanilla"?
I'm not entirely sure what happened last night. All I know is that I got a vanilla result on Muffinman.
I agree, my play yesterday was sub optimal and didn't help town. I tried something different with a PR and it failed miserably.
Vote: kdub.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Oh. There's also more VT claims than I remember. (Four total, I think.) So only a 1/4 chance for any of 'em being cleared. (But he did claim it was on me, so there's that in my defense I guess.)My academy.
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(Both slots I'm definitely saying town on.)In post 79, Hello Kitty Creampuff wrote:Mara says Bro always thinks she's scum and so does AJ.
There is a minor question of, "is there a bus", but I lean no.In post 202, Hello Kitty Creampuff wrote:(AJ, Jake, and Aegor)
And seriously, HKC interactions with Jake, not scum-scum. Difference between sewing chaos and confusion and what they did, pretty dang clear. Soyeah, PA's town.
Same here; it looks like setting up a townflip of one and then pushing for a lynch on town of the other.In post 662, Hello Kitty Creampuff wrote:I don't think Aegor and Jake are scum together, though
Looks important.In post 860, Hello Kitty Creampuff wrote:Ehhh, i havnt really touched Kdub, though I guess I can see where you're coming from re him
'Specially given this.In post 862, Hello Kitty Creampuff wrote:Well, I guess it's more, I feel like someone between the Jake/aj is scum but not together and, if I am wrong on one of the reads, id much rather it be Jake because I don't know how ti work with town him while I have some idea as to how to work with aj
But then the go on a whole tirade of cyclical reads. Voting Kdub, unvoting him, saying not to lynch Aegor saying to lynch Aegor saying not to lynch AJ and then to lynch him. :/
They did go heavily about trying to save SMP, though, so there's that; wagons they'd push over SMP would therefore be more likely to be on town. Which casts doubt on the whole Kdub-is-scum thing. But that said,
Given the hypocrisy in this (checked and kdub had only one vote), I can still see it as being distancing-for-towncred. (Also checking there, there's actually no SMP wagon at the time.)In post 1079, Hello Kitty Creampuff wrote:Dude, we have 5 hours, join one of the counter wagons, don't make any new ones
But I did read some context to get to here. When push came to shove, there were only two viable wagons. Kdub's, and the Shroom wagon.In post 1170, borkjerfkin wrote:Votecount 1.24 (Final)
[7] HighShroomish (Kdub, SMP, Aegor, Mac, Jake From State Farm, sangres, Hello Kitty Creampuff)
[4] Kdub (Antihero, ???, ActionDan, HighShroomish)
[1] Antihero (Aj The Epic)
[1] SMP (BROseidon)
[1] Not Voting (PhDScar)
The former half gives pause to Mac.
The latter half overrides that and makes me think Mac's town a bit more.
(Checking out context, not exactly this, but sorta along those lines, in that HKC was setting things up so that a hammer could happen at any time, it looks like.)In post 1809, Mac wrote:Add HKC on to that list of people I would lynch today, that was really bad.
And the posts there also make Squirrel Girl look ridiculously town, btw. Unvoting and voting HKC there. (Mac also did.) I might check out the rest of the context 'round there later (seems an important phase of the game), but for the time being, finishing the HKC iso seems most important.
*continues*
...Well, that was fast.
Butyeah. What I gather from an HKC iso,
PA (Jake) is definitely town, with AJ/Squirrel Girl very strongly town, too. BROseidon is also very strongly reasonably town. And though uncertain, I THINK that Mac is town here, too. Which really leaves Aegor/kdub, in which I lean Kdub.My academy.
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This actually does look town, though.In post 1897, Aegor wrote:I would be willing to lynch HKC if no other option is available.
I see no reason whatsoever to let Mac live. I do not believe his claim, and he has stated explicitly that he will not confirm it either.
The Mac wagon having disintegrated is a bit of a cause for concern, but overall, I am thinking town there.
But this gives serious pause. :/In post 1927, borkjerfkin wrote:Votecount 3.14
[4] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan, BROseidon, Hello Kitty Creampuff, Aegor)
[3] Hello Kitty Creampuff (Squirrel Girl, Antihero, Kdub)
[2] Not Voting (Mac, Jake From State Farm)
Yet Aegor delivered the hammer. Kdub's vote was just a "shot in the dark"--the type of vote easily removed. Aegor's was a hammer vote, which if he was scum would leave him alone.
I suppose Mac being scum is possible, but I'm still really thinking kdub at this point.
It's not clear-cut. Just little things here and there. That do vaguely point that direction.My academy.
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(Antihero's last non-Mac scumread was back there, so there's also that.)In post 1606, Antihero wrote:scumread on kdub is back with a vengeance
Basically, if I were sheeping the names of trusted town players, I'd be voting Mac, but since I'm following my own self right now and I feel like we're in game-winning mode, I'm voting for kdub. I think this plan even works if you suspect me to be the last scum and lynch me first. But I need to run the exact setup math to figure it out for surez. Basically, I THINK we've got it won, 'specially if you sheep me, but I'm not absolutely sure about that.My academy.
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Heck with it, upgrading tags.
VOTE: Kdub.My academy.
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Sheeping Mastin also makes her paranoid! (Okay, I think I did ask to be sheeped, so I guess not as much, but still.)
The former, no, you were just among the more likely candidates because of the latter, yes, I'm using dead scum players and dead town players combined with VCA to scumhunt. Which resulted in the POE where you were among the main possibilities. Is this a rock-solid case, no. IS it a case, honestly not that much of one; it's more of a 'best guess vote' that I just so happen to think should be followed.In post 2053, Kdub wrote:The rest of your case seems like you're starting with a goal of looking for reasons to call me scum and then trying to look for interpretations of things to fit that conclusion. Your case lacks anything I can directly respond to because it has very little to do with me and a lot to do with people who are now dead.
I'm not exactly sure about the math, so I could be wrong and it's objectively only a 50/50, but I think it's possible to do better. As I said, still crunching the numbers.Can you explain how you think we've got it won?
General traits that come up in lazy-VCA that ignore context, basically abstract yet vaguely holding validity as a scumhunting tool.In post 2054, Squirrel Girl wrote:Can you explain how your VCA points to Aegor?
Objectively speaking, you can actually make a fairly decent one against me off of dead scum's defense of my slot.What is the case on Mastin?My academy.
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No? I mean...that's really it. I don't have a detailed description on why I thought the VCA vaguely pointed towards Aegor. It really was just a bunch of general vague thingies using fairly arbitrary criteria that sorta pointed that way to me. Like, you're asking me to explain something that I've already given the most detailed existing explanation for. I can try using alternative vocabulary, but you're not going to get any more depth than what you have, because you've already gone to the bottom layer. Arbitrary trends in VCA, how wagons formed, positioning, switching, and whatnot. I really can't give you more than that because that's really all there was to it.In post 2058, Squirrel Girl wrote:Are you intentionally trying to be vague when answering this question?
None that I can think of. I just kinda saw it and commented on it. Not everything I say is going to be with purpose; sometimes, I just blurt things out. I'm looking forward to Kdub's official reasoning too.Is there a reason for this interjection? Are you looking to have me change my question or withdraw it or what? I don't understand why you're saying this and for what purpose.My academy.
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Um, sure. Not at this moment, though; that'll take a fair amount of time to do.In post 2061, Squirrel Girl wrote:@Mastin - use the alternate vocabulary then. What might be nice is taking your answer "arbitrary trends, how wagons formed, yadda-yadda" and presenting them like this;
Abritrary Trends;
Example
Example
Explanation of examples.
How wagons formed.
Example
Example
Explanation of examples.
Since that is, what I am asking for. So now that you understand what I've been asking for maybe you can manage an answer, yes and please?
A regret about only coming in now is that most of the people who would be able to tell ya that yes I most certainly have been town are already dead.In post 2067, Kdub wrote:mastin herself hasn't been particularly town or scum.
Admittedly, I've probably not done nearly as much as could be done (though JUST off of D4 posting...there's really no slot that isn't guilty of that ), but none at all?In post 2069, Aegor wrote:I do not think mastin has been scumhunting at all, no.My academy.
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I fully admit the IIoA parts are IIoA, but I haven't posted JUST IIoA. (As for you wanting specifics. The thing about vague is that it's kinda theIn post 2075, Aegor wrote:More specifically, mastin has just been posting tons of "analysis" that is actually more IIoA and then saying that it vaguely leads to feelings that someone is somehow scummy, but no more specificity can be provided, of course.antonymof specific. As in, when I say I have vague feelings...I don't have the ability to specifically pinpoint things and tell you in detail what they mean because that's specifics that're the opposite of what I actually have.)My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Just don't expect it today. (Probs-not tomorrow, either, circumstances depending.) Final weeks of college and all that, slightly V/LA in that I don't want to have my rl suffer for my mafia games. (But I'm otherwise fine since I think I can get it done before deadline, depending on when deadline is. I can likely squeeze in time tonight if deadline were to be, say, tomorrow [same will be true tomorrow], but obviously, I have other things I'm juggling that I'd like to tackle first if not.)In post 2077, Squirrel Girl wrote:She has offered promises of clarifying stuff.
It'd help if you asked me on what.In post 2081, Mac wrote:I don't think we should lynch anyone until mastin clarifies what she is talking about.
And also, for your own take on things. Like, I raised a buncha stuff that might not be strictly analyzed, but had implied analysis behind it, making it not pure IioA; there's stuff like my take on Aegor hammering HKC for instance.
I'll do what I can to show where I'm coming from, but how about you show me where you are, and not only that, but on the things I have, give your take on them?My academy.
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Kinda goes without saying?In post 2086, Squirrel Girl wrote:You feel very disassociated from the game right now.
Butyeah, I'm on V/LA for today. And I want tomorrow off as well, but deadline's five days away and this'll still give me three.My academy.
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I'd prefer you keep a lynch on Kdub, since you're going to flip town I'm fairly certain.My academy.
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Basically,In post 2130, BROseidon wrote:Waiting on penguin to post content :/everyonehas yet to, really, since the day began. (Aside from...replaced players. Jake, zMuffinman, and Squirrel Girl are really the only players who truly gave real content this phase.)
I suppose this game should be a higher priority than most, but for the time being, not right now. (Outta time.)My academy.
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Please explain this to me.In post 2133, beastcharizard wrote:For the record, Mac is town.
Please.
Begging you.
'Cause he's my secondary choice by gut after kdub.My academy.
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My vote's on Kdub.In post 2148, Aegor wrote:Can we please lynch someone?
Beastcharizard's posting seems town immediately, which augments the already-strong townread on Squirrel Girl, and his trust in Mac helps a lot.
I also got the same overall impression on Aegor this game, too, in that his interactions may not seem the greatest (they actually kinda suck), but his individual posting seems decently strong.
It leads back to a Kdub lynch. I mean, this is another case where we'll need to re-evaluate things if we're wrong, and have plans in placejustin case (which we more or less do), but I really, really think it's Kdub.My academy.
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Honestly, my best answers are either you/BRO choosing to no-kill or you being a Ninja.In post 2173, Aegor wrote:Also, I am having trouble coming up with reasons why there was a NK.
I'm thinking Mac's not scum right now, and fairly certain beast isn't, and PA obviously isn't, soyeah. Just need that figured out.My academy.
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(I hate to play the card, and I'm not really gonna play it, except I kinda am in that I do hope you'll forgive me if I retain SOME skepticism about that given how a limited-cop can go against a godfather and a miller in the same game which you know from first-hand experience*.)In post 2176, BROseidon wrote:If you all lynch me because I "might" be a godfather put into the game to compensate for a 1-shot cop, then y'all seriously need to get your heads checked.
*Actually, now that I think about it, it's a bad tell to use, but BROseidon's probably town because if he actually WERE a godfather inthisgame, the thought of AP being a godfather in Tales wouldn't have been met with such strong resistance.
Given the above, the best I've got is you. :/In post 2177, Aegor wrote:Anyone have strong thoughts about who should be lynched?
Vote: Aegor.
But note the tags.
I think Squirrel Girl and beastcharizard are town.
Mac can only be scum if he's a scum PR that visits PA without doing anything, like, say, roleblocking. Furthermore, given the townread from beastcharizard, I kinda want to trust him on that. And him sacrificing the nightkill doesn't make that much sense to me, either, given that he can kill PA and claim it means the remaining scum is a roleblocker.
I mean, I don't trust myself. I could be wrong again. I said the same thing yesterday. "I really don't think it could be anyone other than Kdub." So believe me, it kinda sucks. But I'm back to thinking that, only as Aegor instead. But it's not a scumread so much as it is POE.My academy.
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So I did come up with a minibreaker plan last night.
-Lynch Aegor. If the game's still going, see what scum do.
-If PA is killed, we have four alive; Mac protects BROseidon.
-The results of that determine what to do.
It's a minibreaker 'cause while this is the most likely outcome of Aegor flipping town, it's not the only one. I'd need to cover Mac, BROseidon, and nobody dieing on all nights for it to be truly a gamebreaking plan, not to mention, having a clear idea of what each scenario's end result would mean, when frankly, I don't.
But it's something that I thought I'd bring up anyway, in case someone else can make use of it.My academy.
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Won't get resistance from me.In post 2185, Aegor wrote:I think I may want to lynch mastin.
And beast, the ??s are VTs.
Also, it's not telling the scum who to kill. It's trying to figure out what can be gained from scum choosing their choices in (no-) kills. And also strategizing the most optimal way to make sure town live and scum die.
Not sure that makes sense, though.My academy.
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Actually, it was yesterday, not today or tomorrow. But yes, quite explicitly, flip-flopping. On everyone. (Well...not exactly. See below.)In post 2195, Mac wrote:You seem to be pretty non-commital on a read on me, choosing to "believe" other players like charizard rather than yourself. Looks like you're setting up a flip-flop on me later on, or now even.
Frankly I'd be kinda suspicious of her if she was, but I don't think so. I'd think it'd be more off of reading what I've written and thinking about whether this is town-motivated or scum-motivated. And while townplay/scumplay does delve into meta somewhat, it's not difficult to read me as town from it. (In part because of the meta, in that, well...frankly, a scuMastin has......more? Just "more". 'More what?' It's just more. Best description I can give.) It's kinda complicated.In post 2190, Aegor wrote:Penguin, please tell me you are not townreading mastin based on meta.
Overall, though, I've thought her slot town fairly solidly from everything I've seen. From Jake to her. And I realize I've lost quite a number of farms to my gambling habits already, but she's probably the closest thing in this game I have to a "bet the farm, willing to lose game to if wrong" townread, sad as that is. (Honestly, I really don't feel like I should be townreading her. I really feel like I should be having a more cautious eye to her. There's a whole lotta logical minor things that while not quite alarm bells are going off all the same, but...I sorta feel like ignoring them, since there's a strong sensation from her that she's town all the same. Which, again, is a horrible way to read someone, I know, but what I feel all the same.)
BROseidon's additionally far more likely to be town than not thanks if nothing else to what I said. It might be a bad tell, but I feel like it's a legitimate one. BROseidon, in Tales, was among the strongest advocates that AP was town throughout the whole game. He had a result on AP. Thoughts of AP being the godfather were dismissed. And even post-game, BROseidon defended his decision, saying it was correct by the math to trust in the result. Now maybe, BROseidon is capable of isolating games so that what he said in that game was entirely detached from this game. Maybe, what he said was a mathematician's answer in that he meant it for this game too in that the result in general should be trusted even if in this specific case it was wrong. But I really don't think so. I really think his attitude there is reflected in his lack of being scum-GF here.
Then there's beastcharizard and Squirrel Girl before him. Squirrel Girl's posting just kinda, well, felt town. Beast has continued that trend. Honestly, whereas with PA there exists paranoia, whereas with BROseidon there exists paranoia, when it comes to beastcharizard...for some reason, I have none. Like, the above two feel like gambits of townreads. As in, there's actually risk behind holding those stances, in that if I hold them, and they're wrong, that's game over. (Well, assuming I'd be in lylo and be the deciding vote.) When it comes to beastcharizard, objectively, that risk should still be there...yet subjectively, I feel it isn't. It's entirely absent.
What sucks right now is that in the position of other players, I'd be lynching me first, since Mac and Aegor are both about equal, just in different ways, in that neither actually looks like scum. Yeah, one of them has to be, but I only know that because I know my alignment. (Thus why I won't give resistance if you decide to lynch me. But if you do, just let me get the chance to give a final number crunch to run things through to see if I can help posthumously.)
Mac has had both his neighbors vouching for his townness in the QT. He's additionally got a visiting role that does not interfere with PA's (thus, not roleblocker), when a mafia rolecop has already flipped. There aren't exactly a lot of mafia roles that I can see him being. Plus, the whole interaction with HCP looks good for him.
Aegor has more town posting, and actually hammered HCP, which would put him at a severe disadvantage if he were to be scum. There's other reasons I can't recall off the top of my head, but basically, his play has been less scummy visually, in contrast to Mac's, if that makes sense. But I do need to go back and review this stuff again to be sure.
The problem I have with it is that if Mac flips town, it sets up an Aegor vs. Mastin lynch in lylo. All nice and fine, in that if you're scum, I know I can beat you in a 1v1 fight...In post 2197, Aegor wrote:That plan seems fine to me.
...Except I have to actually believe it to be a 1v1, which I probably won't. (Good if itactuallyisn't, bad if it is. Especially since doubt-casting onto conftown/player-who-should-be-deciding-vote-in-lylo is part of my standard scum tactics, thus making them paranoid of me just as much as me of them.)
That being said, if you're town, I think you can understand my concern about your willingness to rush in, here. You've shown a strong willingness to lynch me, and also Mac, which if you're scum, you need both of.
/needs to stop slacking off and run through the math for EVERY scenario. Then do the research.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Running through the list of things Mac could be as scum:
-Rolestopper, depending on how bork processes the actions. (PA, you need to ask about that.)
-Tracker, but doubtful given the mafia rolecop. (Need to check bork meta, though.)
-A bomb of some kind. (Doubtful, given the hatred that bork got the last time he featured a role like that.)
That's...that's about all I could come up with.
No killing roles, so not a doctor.
No failure of PA's watch, so not a jailkeeper or roleblocker.
I can't think of any realistic role Mac could be that's scum.My academy.
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I mean, I suppose something like Fruit Vendor would be possible, in that it could be a mafia role that visits without doing anything, but...
...Really, that's grasping at straws, especially since if that were true, Mac would just, y'know, claim it.
Same thing for Hiders. (Also a bad mafia role anyway.)
I can see the mafia having some sort of role working on even nights to augment the odd-night role, but, well...what would it be?
Mac's not going to invent a claim he can't back up, so it's going to be almost-entirely-real, meaning his restriction of not being consecutive is real. (Not necessarily that he can only use his power non-consecutively; as mafia, hecouldfeasibly lie and say he was when it's actually even-night, but you get the point.)
But everything I do that's so much as remotely trying to see Mac as scum is grasping at straws and violating Occam's razor in who knows how many multitude of ways.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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So, anyone here know what bork's rule on reflexive roles would be?
Basically, I'm asking just to make sure of something, though I don't think it really matters.My academy.
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Another thing I'm trying to do is to reason through the no-kill last night.
Why would PA no-kill last night? Letting Mac live has an obvious benefit, but between him, BROseidon, and beastcharizard (who--while not conftown--nobody suspects, thus, is a viable nightkill for any scum player), there's material for two nights' worth of nightkills without anyone batting an eye at PA's survival.
The same only moreso for BROseidon. Letting Mac live has no benefit, in that all it does is give an extra voice to the town while making both players harder to mislynch, thanks to role confirmation. I mean, I guess there's one thing that I can see (I think it's a bad idea to say) that Isupposewould make this make sense, but it doesn't seem to make sense. He's already got the setup for lylo.
Why would Mac no-kill last night? Okay, this one makes sense. If he can only do an action or a kill and not both, it makes sense for him not to. Kill PA, people scream for his blood in spite of whatever he says, be it "I protected BROseidon" or "I protected her, but it obviously didn't work". Kill someone else and claim to have visited PA yet PA has no result...same deal, albeit more ambiguously. He casts attention to himself. So he does have a fair amount of motive for it.
What could justify Aegor's night actions? For a start, there'd be deciding to ninja-kill PA and hope Mac's off. But let's assume not-a-ninja scum. What's the incentive, then, to no-kill? It confirms Mac as visiting, making a mislynch there harder. (Admittedly, this is a point shared in all no-kill defenses; I point it out in BROseidon's, among others.) The best answer I have is to gauge the town's reactions, because a no-kill leaves us in the same position more-or-less as yesterday: nobody confirmed beyond what they were, no additional info, just a little bit of information that half-proves but doesn't entirely-prove Mac's story, yet leaves the game potentially vulnerable. (Maybe? I dunno.)
I don't really see anything clearly.
Like, maybe a scum player would angst over who to kill and end up not submitting anyone, but even if so, that still wouldn't leave us anywhere closer to an answer than we are, aside from ruling out Mac. (Technically, it'd rule out me, too, but I'm the only one who knows that. )
This all seems like a massive way of going in a circle and not getting anywhere productive. :/My academy.
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Okay.
I think it actually did have some minor productivity.
It makes PA's chances of being scum decrease slightly, from a more objective angle. Of all the players, objectively, she has the least to gain by no-killing. But only ever so slightly. Wish it were more strongly, since objectivity is one of the main areas I'm concerned about when it comes to PA. (Since subjectivity is already saying town.)
It's also reinforcing my belief that beastcharizard is town, too.My academy.
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(The sad thing is, people in the dead thread have probably already told me,
"MASTIN.
YOU'RE SO CLOSE.
YOU HAD THEM.
LOOK AT <piece of evidence I pointed out at some point> AGAIN.
REALIZE WHAT IT MEANS.
CONNECT THE DOTS.
THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES ARE THERE.
JUST FINISH THEM OFF!"
Even iftheyhaven't,Ihave, in that, well, that's how I feel. Like the answer's staring me right in the face but that I haven't been able to put it together yet in spite of that. All I have is my best guess, which is Aegor, but if it's not him...I don't have the answer. I really, really don't. And bluntly, I don't think I ever would. :/)My academy.
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Vehement, no.In post 2217, Aegor wrote:Is there any vehement opposition to lynching Mac?
Opposition, kinda.
Don't get me wrong.
It's fully possible beastcharizard is the zMuffinman of this game, and Mac the mollie of this game. In that it's fully possible that me not trusting him is delaying the end of the game, and me not trusting other peoples' doubts of Mac is extending the game, whereas if I just lynched Mac we'd get things over with. And it's not even particularly improbable, either; it's a realistic chance of being true.
It's just that I can't think ofhowMac could be scum. Especially depending on the timing of his truthful claim in the neighborhood, combined with the setup as I see it. Mac either had to make up something, or would legitimately be 2x something. What would the 2x something BE, though? Not a tracker. Not a roleblocker. I can't really think of anything.
I mean, I guess if everyone's okay with the lynch, I can go along with it ('specially since Mac's play has been kinda...iffy, and I typically trust play over roles) after I run the math on if Mac's town, but I don't really get it.My academy.
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I commit seppuku.In post 2219, Aegor wrote:Say you lynch me, and I flip town. What happens next?
(No, but seriously. I scramble around, looking for answers that make sense. Ultimately, I probably go for a no-lynch so that we have a 3p lylo instead of a 4p mylo, since I wouldn't be able to clear any player. I hope and pray that, scum or town, I'm voted, so that the burden of the game isn't placed on me. And if I'm voted by town, I gracefully accept the loss since I had no clue who the scum was up to the very end, meaning that the scumbag earned their win. Or if, for SOME reason, SOMEHOW, I end up the hammer--dear god, why would the town player be STUPID enough to do that--I angst over it for nearly the entirety of the deadline, circle-jerking the whole way, trying to make sense of things before ultimately going with my gut instinct.)My academy.
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Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand, I'm paranoid now.
Unvote: Aegor.
Aegor, remember this?
Said about me. But, wellllllllllll......In post 2221, Aegor wrote:My only hesitation was if mastin had some other suspect. Since that is not the case, leggo.
That.In post 2226, Mac wrote:
This works for me I guess?In post 2223, beastcharizard wrote:I still think my theory has the best chances of victory but it probably has the most drawbacks if I am wrong. I unpropose my theory now.
Mac, I will tell you tonight my theory and why I thought lynching you would greatly increase our chances of winning the game.
VOTE: vote: Aegor[/b]
back to here. still think he's scum. mastin has also entered my brain but I'm not sure what to think about her atm.
Something about it is tripping all sorts of alarm bells.
Like, I can't think of any way, logically, that Mac would be scum here.
But, well...that's kinda the impression I suddenly got. :/My academy.
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(People actually FOLLOWING me doesn't help matters, either.
Like, I suddenly got an overwhelming warning bell telling me, "The Aegor lynch is wrong."
No clue why it's that strong.
But, well...it is.
And until I sort that feeling, no lynching there.
I suppose there's a bit in that while his tone is a bit flat, what Aegor'ssayingstill looks town to me, combined with Mac's posting seeming...well, not so town. But I dunno.
For the moment, call it Aegor nullishtown and Mac nullishscum.
...Which in a way I suppose makes me simultaneously guilty and not guilty of that same thing, but I need to sort it.
We do have the time to, soyeah.)My academy.
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I suppose I should start with the obvious.
Mac:What made me enter your mind?
Why can't you make anything of me?
Why haven't you put the time and effort into figuring me out?My academy.
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Guh. I'm going into full-blown paranoia mode.
Not necessarily that others are scum, mind you.
Simply that it'd be possible both Mac and Aegor are town and that thinking it's them could screw us over. :/
(Overall, Mac's still my best guess right now.
If it actuallyisAegor, I owe the dead town [one or two in particular] an apology for this paranoia, but Ineedto pursue this, sorry.)My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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PA:
Just to be sure, does this still hold?In post 1995, penguin_alien wrote:So yeah, not interested in lynching the cop-cleared player on the offchance there's a GF. Especially when this is apathetic town-BRO.
And about how confident in it are you?
I realize this was your initial opinion, but I'd like as much detail on your opinion of the two explained as possible.Aegor's too good a player to be going down this rabbit hole, but a miller with a one-shot cop is equally improbable. I'd lynch Aegor or Mac and take it from there.
Also, this might be obvious by looking at context and I'm doing it from iso, but why is Mac lynchable here yet you asked him to protect you just before that?
I realize you have the tell on me (still insist it's not really that valid, btw), but can you explain the townread on me more clearly? Especially since with the Kdub lynch I kind-ofIn post 2064, penguin_alien wrote:I'll be very surprised if this is scum-mastin.diddisplay some symptoms of your tell, yet as far as I can tell it didn't raise alarm bells to you.
And while I've felt the same way and don't exactly blame you if you can't properly verbalize it, what exactly makes SG/BC's slot town to you?
(Uhg. I'm honestly not sure if these questions will actually be helpful in figuring anything out. But I don't have any better ideas for how to pursue solving my paranoia, here. :/)My academy.
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Assume Aegor's town.In post 2229, beastcharizard wrote:VOTE: Aegor
Ok, I feel like if Aegor isn't scum then tomorrow will be easy to pick out the scum.
Assume you die.
Lay out who's scum.
(Especially important if, y'know. You think it's Mac and the only person capable of relaying that is......Mac.)
In general, I could use your thoughts on everyone.
Like, you haven't commented on BRO at all; you've asked PA questions but haven't given a read, and similar for me. I've picked up the impression of townreads on all of us, but never anything explicit and with no reasoning attached to it.My academy.
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Guh. Really need questions to Aegor and BRO, too, and probably more to Mac, but can't really think of anything.
Oh, here's one.
BROseidon:I realize you're apathetic, but where do you stand overall when it comes to players? Give whatever you've got, even if it's virtually nothing. Like, gun-to-head instinctive reactions are better than absolutely nothing. (Granted, even better is actually-analytical stuff, but while I'dpreferyou do that, I can understand not having done so.)My academy.
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Oh, and,
To everyone:Challenge me.
I could use people asking questions of their own to me. Might help stimulate me enough to help figure things out. (I typically work best when I have someone who serves to keep me in check and give me focus. Which questioning me can do, by pointing things out I had forgotten about or didn't think about, soyeah.)My academy.
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Actually, yeah, it does.In post 2243, penguin_alien wrote:OK, briefly, beast and SG are/were both looking to solve the game in a way that I don't see coming from a last scum standing. Way too much effort for a solo scum who has no suspicion on them. Solo scum here who's a neighbor with Mac should find it easy to take a stance, vote one way or the other, with the other choice as a back-up and toss mastin in there as a paranoia option. Not question my towniness when they don't need my mislynch to win. Hope that helps.
If I knew that, this would be a much, much easier read to call.In post 2241, beastcharizard wrote:@Mastin:
Why is Mac scum? Like what about him exactly is scummy? Link me posts or something.
Explicitly don't know, aside from gut.
Like, I guess...this kind of play is just the sort of thing I suppose I'd expect from a scuMac? Mac when town normally is obvtown yet doesn't feel that way to me this game. His posting hasn't seemed like the strong him I remember. General, vague things like that which explicitly donothave anything concrete tied to them, being basically just feeling.
Like, his post near the top of last page rubbed me the wrong way, setting off alarm bells that he may be scum setting up an Aegor-then-mastin chain lynch for victory, but even that wasn't strong, merely serving as the catalyst for the sudden wave of doubt. (Plus your vote.) Oh, and while I can see Aegor's posting here as being from scum, his recent posting is really right on the money hitting all the right notes to make me think, "this is what town being mislynched would think".My academy.
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Oh.In post 2248, beastcharizard wrote:1. You don't see the neighborhood.
This, too.
Like, you can get town players townning it up in neighborhoods. (JSU/F-16/pie.)
...But while possible, that causes an immense frustration/paranoia of the town outside the picture, mainly because...
...It is much, much, MUCH easier to get scum players manipulating and becoming obvtown in said neighborhoods. (Nacho/PA.)
I suppose this in particular is also setting off alarm bells.In post 2246, Mac wrote:I've already said your flip flop reminded me of what did you to me in Anything Goes (ie - you read me as strong town and then moulded me into a lynchable player, eventually lynched) and now I'm still seeing it especially now. Aegor is still top of my list, and you can quit the charade where you seem to think you have been the only one pushing Aegor when he's been my top scumread since d2/3, can't remember which. But yeah, you're a possibility if Aegor is somehow town.
I'm displaying a trend, quite strongly, that you perceived in Anything Goes. Not only is the trend similar, but virtually identical, in that you have a confirmed role yet I'm thinking you're scum in spite of that. The timing's even the same: not pushing you yesterday (two days before lylo/mylo), but pushing you the day before lylo/mylo with a self-admitted backup-plan of sorts. (It should be fairly obvious that a scuMastin is going to set up an Aegor/PA lylo. Because if PA continues to townread me, it'd lead to victory, and if not, if she voted me, then a scuMastin would gamble on paranoia that she's not conftown and plead to Aegor about it, pointing out the town trends and emphasizing all the town things I've done.
Oh. And did I mention the waffling, under the guise of paranoia? That, too.)
And yet, in spite of that...I'm just a possibility? Even your language usage is implying that you think I'm faking stuff. ("quit the charade" is not a phrase you mutter to a town player often, yaknow.) Aegor's at the top of the list, in spite of the fact that by all reasonable accounts, you should be having me as much more than just a possibility. Why so little focus on me? Why just default to Aegor? Like, you said why you haven't bothered sorting me...but why not, when I've shown what to you should be a red flag warning sign?
I don't understand it coming from a town-you. I can't see how, not even in apathy, you'd just casually think, "eh, Mastin may be scum"...
...ESPECIALLY knowing my skill as a scum player. If the possibility existed for me being scum, why instantly just place Aegor above me when simply put, Aegor's not nearly as competent a scum player as I am? When leaving a scuMastin alive a day could spell the town's death? What makes Aegor that strong a read, and me such an insignificant one?
I don't get it.My academy.
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(Oh. I think I just stumbled upon one of my tells.
I'm making a "reading Mastin" flowchart, and one of the things I think I can put on there is a trend that I have.
"Is Mastin making a case for why she could be scum?
Yes-->She's town.
Kinda?-->Prob-town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.
Is Mastin making very strong reasons why she's town?
No-->She's town.
Kinda-->Prob-town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
Yes-->Proceed."
Note that 'tells' is more like, "guideline" than actual rule, though. Still, I think it holds.
Not really relevant, though, since you have no reason to trust its accuracy 'til I'm dead. At which point it's kinda useless. )My academy.
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(Oh, and I think rambling in-thread's already there*, but if not, it should be.)
*Relies on scum having daychat. Scum have daychat, in-thread rambling = decent towntell. Scum don't have daychat, rambling = prob-null, maybe slight townlean. Scum daychat ambiguous, assume slight townlean.My academy.
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(Oh, should be noted. Last scum, rambling in-thread gets upgraded to major towntell, since scuMastin typically keeps rambles to the scum QT about why she's screwed*. )
*Or about differences in her towngame/scumgame, and running commentary, and ranting at the mods for an "unbalanced" setup......My academy.
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Umm...I replaced in day four, not day one?In post 2262, BROseidon wrote:Why would AD get killed N1? He had 26 posts, and scum either figured out he was a PR, or his death strongly implies that mastin is the last scum.
(As if we needed more proof BROseidon was town, this is a fairly huge townslip.)My academy.
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Not that it'd make much of a difference. (Aside from the remote chance of PA being scum. If that were the case, I'd have LOVED to be in her spot instead of mine. ) All it'd really do is make me inclined to think SMP's result on zMuffinman (my slot) makes my slot town a bit, which I'd be thinking anyway off of the play of the slot, and me having PA's slot and knowing them to be town, would be left...In post 2269, BROseidon wrote:I wish mastin and penguin replaced into the opposite slots. Is it too late to have this happen?
...In exactly the same spot I am right now, thinking that one of Mac/Aegor is scum. Actually, I'm kinda glad I'm not in PA's slot, 'cause in PA's slot, I'd be "more conftown" than I am in my slot, meaning that while not clear, I'd be far more likely to be left with the hammer than I am in my current slot. Basically, PA's slot is more likely to be left the decider, a position that I absolutely HATE being in, soyeah.My academy.
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I haven't decided that myself.In post 2274, BROseidon wrote:Guys, should I read the Jake/Muffin pissing contest?
I know I skimmed it, but aside from thinking Jake's slot was likely town from it, otherwise came up with nothing...especially since I was thinking that already.My academy.
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Because here I'm actually having doubt? Like...*points to votecount* I'm not voting Mac for a dang-good reason.In post 2279, BROseidon wrote:Why this soft of a response here, when, when I called you out on something similar in Tales of You (your response to AP's entrance from AG in Tales being the same across both games) you responded more pointedly?
I've had paranoia literally everywhere.
You. (Addressed.)
SG/BC. (Almost entirely addressed, in addition to just general vibe of things.)
PA. (Not really addressed, but let me put it this way, PA's a strong townread aside from the Paranoia, stronger than Aegor or Mac.)
Aegor both ways.
Mac both ways.
I can give you overall thoughts.
That overall, my paranoia about Mac being town is not as strong as my paranoia that Aegor is town.
That overall, my paranoia about SG/BC being scum is weaker than my paranoia about PA being scum which is weaker than my paranoia of Aegor being scum and that paranoia of him being scum is weaker than on Mac.
I can say that by gut-feeling, that's my most-town to least-town list.
I can say that there are arguments both ways for both Aegor and Mac being either alignment, of approximately equal strength, on logical merits.
I can also say that Mac's role logically makes him town.
But that my read on him is overall still "likely last scum".
But you have no id--
Actually, yes you do. You haveidea of exactly what I'm going through. How much that's wavering. That racking doubt. A mental, "Aaaaaaaaahg. (This sucks.)", you could say. I can't figure it out. I've been trying all day. I've been trying to solve the game. But while I have some things I think more strongly than other, general directions and vague pointers that tell me something's slightly more likely (in particular, me really, really wanting PA to be town), there's that niggle of paranoia holding me back from making the call.every
Overall, if nothing else by trusting the dead, I'd kinda want to lynch Mac, but I really don't know for sure.
You putting Aegor/PA as your strongest two town players does help me, though. Puts my mind more at rest that someone who's going through similar (your posts make it really, reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally obvious you don't really have a clue, either) is saying that both of them are town.
I'm probably going to end up voting Mac, but I want to be as sure as I can be.
A tl;dr version, I suppose you could say, is that you're asking me why I haven't pushed harder...
And my answer is that I want nothing more than the ability TO push harder and have that confidence.My academy.
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