Mini 1566: Lunar Silver Star Story Complete (Game Over)

[mastin2]

Yo.

I basically know absolutely nothing about the game. (I found it accidentally, even. ) I just saw it was locked, it wasn't over, it was bork, it needed a replacement, and it was zMuff, and figured might as well. So, give me the rundown.

[mastin2]

Kinda feel like voting Aegor.

[mastin2]

I'd be OK with letting Mac confirm himself on penguin tonight.

I agree with trying, though I'm concerned that it will not go as well as we're hoping. (For reasons that I think aren't too hard to figure out but I'd rather not say just in case.)

Needless to say, the plan is good but I don't think it'll give us foolproof answers. They'll give us indicators, I'm sure, but not foolproof answers, circumstances depending.

That said, while I saw zMuff had aggression against Jake and Mac a little bit, I'm willing to on setup spec give both slots towncred. (Mac doesn't get towncred on play, which I haven't judged yet. PA's too new, and Jake is also unjudged.)

I'll have to look into the circumstances of the lynch before clearing Squirrel Girl, but it sounds plausible enough to be true. I'm certainly not lynching BROseidon since I feel the point about Godfather/Miller is true given the 1x cop, though this isn't absolute and seeing some :effort: from BROseidon would help a lot given he can give it as town. (That said, is nearly certainly town anyway since I know he's busy in real life.)

kdub vaguely looks town, and Aegor not-so-vaguely looks like scum.

I think the game will end with an Aegor lynch, but I also feel like we should make plans as a just-in-case it's not, to optimize our chances of a victory, here. Feels like we can set up an order that gives us a win or near-win guaranteed. But I'm not exactly in the loop and am not sure how much reading I want to do to figure this out.

Thoughts on it, though?

[mastin2]

(Oh. And Squirrel's current posting ALSO looks town, I should say.
And BROseidon's I'm also liking.
And kdub's also seems decently good.)

[mastin2]

Spoiler: VCA

[4] PhDScar (Aj The Epic, catboi, ActionDan, BROseidon)
[2] Aegor (Kdub, sangres)
[2] Hello Kitty Creampuff (Jake From State Farm, Aegor)
[1] ActionDan (PhDScar)
[1] Jake From State Farm (Hello Kitty Creampuff)
[1] Kdub (???)
[1] SMP (HighShroomish)
[2] Not Voting (Mac, SMP)

This does make me slightly wonder, though. Squirrel and BRO on my wagon. I'm doin' blind VCA here, though, so it's not so much a concern as it is something to take a look at and see what was going on there.

[6] PhDScar (Aj The Epic, catboi, ActionDan, BROseidon, Aegor, ???)
[2] Aegor (Kdub, sangres)
[1] ActionDan (PhDScar)
[1] Hello Kitty Creampuff (Jake From State Farm)
[1] Jake From State Farm (Hello Kitty Creampuff)
[1] SMP (HighShroomish)
[2] Not Voting (Mac, SMP)

Well, it's basically a certainty there's a scum here, though that doesn't exactly tell us a lot. Does look like Aegor to me, though.

[4] Aegor (Kdub, sangres, Hello Kitty Creampuff, PhDScar)
[3] catboi (Aj The Epic, Aegor, BROseidon)
[3] PhDScar (catboi, ActionDan, ???)
[1] HighShroomish (Mac)
[1] SMP (HighShroomish)
[2] Not Voting (SMP, Jake From State Farm)

With 13 alive, it is 7 to lynch.

This looks interesting, too.

[3] catboi (Aj The Epic, Aegor, BROseidon)
[2] Jake From State Farm (sangres, Hello Kitty Creampuff)
[2] PhDScar (catboi, ActionDan)
[2] SMP (HighShroomish, ???)
[1] Aegor (Kdub)
[1] Hello Kitty Creampuff (PhDScar)
[1] HighShroomish (Mac)

[2] Not Voting (SMP, Jake From State Farm)

Especially since the Aegor wagon fell apart but the contemporary catboi wagon didn't.

[5] SMP (???, Aegor, Jake From State Farm, BROseidon, Hello Kitty Creampuff)
[2] Jake From State Farm (sangres, HighShroomish)
[2] PhDScar (catboi, ActionDan)
[1] Aegor (Kdub)
[1] catboi (Aj The Epic)
[1] Hello Kitty Creampuff (PhDScar)
[2] Not Voting (SMP, Mac)

We know one was bussing; question is if it was two at this point.

[3] Jake From State Farm (sangres, HighShroomish, Hello Kitty Creampuff)
[3] PhDScar (catboi, ActionDan, ???)
[3] SMP (Aegor, Jake From State Farm, BROseidon)
[1] BROseidon (SMP)
[1] catboi (Aj The Epic)
[1] Hello Kitty Creampuff (PhDScar)
[1] HighShroomish (Kdub)
[1] Not Voting (Mac)

[4] Jake From State Farm (sangres, HighShroomish, Hello Kitty Creampuff, Mac)
[2] Hello Kitty Creampuff (PhDScar, Jake From State Farm)
[2] PhDScar (ActionDan, ???)
[2] SMP (Aegor, BROseidon)
[1] Aj The Epic (Antihero)
[1] Antihero (Aj The Epic)
[1] BROseidon (SMP)
[1] HighShroomish (Kdub)

With 13 alive, it is 7 to lynch.

Given these two show the wagon falling apart, blind VCA suggests two. 'Specially considering this:

[4] Jake From State Farm (HighShroomish, Hello Kitty Creampuff, Mac, Aegor)
[2] Hello Kitty Creampuff (PhDScar, Jake From State Farm)
[2] HighShroomish (Kdub, SMP)
[2] PhDScar (ActionDan, ???)
[1] Aj The Epic (Antihero)
[1] Antihero (Aj The Epic)
[1] Kdub (sangres)
[1] SMP (BROseidon)

[6] HighShroomish (Kdub, SMP, Aegor, PhDScar, Mac, Jake From State Farm)
[5] Kdub (Hello Kitty Creampuff, Antihero, ???, ActionDan, sangres)
[1] Antihero (Aj The Epic)
[1] PhDScar (HighShroomish)
[1] SMP (BROseidon)

This looks important.

[6] Kdub (Hello Kitty Creampuff, Antihero, ???, ActionDan, sangres, PhDScar)
[5] HighShroomish (Kdub, SMP, Aegor, Mac, Jake From State Farm)
[1] Antihero (Aj The Epic)
[1] PhDScar (HighShroomish)
[1] SMP (BROseidon)

[7] HighShroomish (Kdub, SMP, Aegor, Mac, Jake From State Farm, sangres, Hello Kitty Creampuff)

[4] Kdub (Antihero, ???, ActionDan, HighShroomish)
[1] Antihero (Aj The Epic)
[1] SMP (BROseidon)
[1] Not Voting (PhDScar)

But this reversal also looks important.

[4] SMP (sangres, Aegor, Hello Kitty Creampuff, Jake From State Farm)

I'm going to venture a guess that this was some sort of result or that players thought it was. Which scum would obviously bus on. I kinda lean towards two having done so. However,

[6] SMP (sangres, Aegor, Antihero, Jake From State Farm, Kdub, Hello Kitty Creampuff)

[5] Not Voting (Aj The Epic, BROseidon, Mac, zMuffinMan, SMP)

That doesn't exactly do me a lot of good.

[3] Mac (Antihero, Jake From State Farm, Aegor)
[1] Jake From State Farm (Hello Kitty Creampuff)
[1] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan)
[1] zMuffinMan (Squirrel Girl)
[3] Not Voting (BROseidon, Mac, Kdub)

First wagon of note.

[3] Hello Kitty Creampuff (Squirrel Girl, Aegor, Jake From State Farm)
[1] Aegor (Kdub)
[1] Jake From State Farm (Hello Kitty Creampuff)
[1] Kdub (Mac)
[1] Mac (Antihero)
[1] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan)
[1] Not Voting (BROseidon)

Second wagon of note.

[2] Hello Kitty Creampuff (Squirrel Girl, Jake From State Farm)
[2] Mac (Antihero, Aegor)
[1] Aegor (Kdub)
[1] Jake From State Farm (Hello Kitty Creampuff)
[1] Kdub (Mac)
[1] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan)
[1] Not Voting (BROseidon)

...Which Aegor hops off of.

[4] Mac (Antihero, Aegor, Squirrel Girl, Jake From State Farm)
[1] Aegor (Kdub)
[1] Jake From State Farm (Hello Kitty Creampuff)
[1] Kdub (Mac)
[1] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan)
[1] Not Voting (BROseidon)

In favor of the first that resurged.

[4] Hello Kitty Creampuff (Mac, Squirrel Girl, Jake From State Farm, Antihero)
[2] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan, BROseidon)
[1] Aegor (Kdub)
[1] Jake From State Farm (Hello Kitty Creampuff)
[1] Mac (Aegor)

This also doesn't look like a scum-bus wagon forming.

[4] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan, BROseidon, Hello Kitty Creampuff, Aegor)
[3] Hello Kitty Creampuff (Squirrel Girl, Antihero, Kdub)
[2] Not Voting (Mac, Jake From State Farm)

This one looks really important.

[4] Hello Kitty Creampuff (Squirrel Girl, Antihero, Kdub, Jake From State Farm)
[4] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan, BROseidon, Hello Kitty Creampuff, Aegor)
[1] Not Voting (Mac)

As does this.

[5] Hello Kitty Creampuff (Squirrel Girl, Antihero, Kdub, Jake From State Farm, Aegor)

[3] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan, BROseidon, Hello Kitty Creampuff)
[1] Not Voting (Mac)

This depends on Mac's stance. If Mac was never realistically voting Squirrel Girl and/or Mac was realistically going to vote HKC, then in either case, Aegor's switch looks, well, highly scummy, in that it looks like scum-going-for-last-ditch-towncred.

/IioA. Someone who's actually been in the game longer can probably make more sense of this than I can.

[mastin2]

Overall quick skim-vibe is overall bad for Aegor and maybe-bad for kdub, though.

[mastin2]

Popcorn flavor claim: Mastin2

*grumble, grumble, make me check my inbox for something worthless, grumble, grumble*
Nash Rumack, a highly-appropriate description given to me being an arrogant neophyte sorcerer of the magic guild, where I'm a student. (Bah. I should be running an academy, not being a student at one!) All talk and no bite, with minimal skills at thunder magic. (Highly paraphrased, butyeah. VT.)

Unless the entire town agrees it's for the best... until the obvious happens. (See mastin's post referencing this.)

You should do it anyway. Chance of blocking kill is less valuable than chance of confirming self at this stage of the game.

I did some commenting before the site downage that I'd appreciate commentary on. Basically, of coordinating a strategy where we have the best chance of winning, along with some basic VCA that decently points towards Aegor for the last scum.

[mastin2]

Oh, hey, I just realized that I'm actually somewhat-familiar with this game's flavor! I got really interested in playing the game and read the TVTropes page and all that. (The name Ghaleon sounded familiar, then I remembered from what.)

That actually would make a concern about BRO be valid, though, in that Ghaleon from a flavor perspective WOULD be a Godfather given that he was a hero and the heroes were blindsided by him actually being a villain. (His villainous reveal scene is the one that I watched a youtube clip of and got me obsessed with reading the TVTropes page for.) PROBABLY not something to be concerned about.

[mastin2]

mastin, I read your VCA, but a lot of your comments are just that certain VCs are "interesting" or something of the sort without further explanation. Can you summarize the VCs that you thought were most important and what those tell you about current players?

Well, I can't, because part of VCA is the circumstances behind the votes...which I know nothing about. I gave that VCA and noted potential trends in there, basically showing switches that I thought could be important. And wagon developments that could be, too. But me not being in the game at the time, I don't know about whether they actually were or not.

[mastin2]

Basically, I was hoping someone who was actually there could shed some light on the VCA I did. The switches and reversals and buildups I said were potentially relevant and all that. What I quoted were basically ones that I felt could be of importance, with ones of extreme interested noted.

Also, that also doesn't cover the other bit, about forming a plan, for today, if needed tonight, and if needed for future days. I'd rather not have us blindly lynch Aegor, have him flip town, and then be left with nothing. I'd much prefer we lynch Aegor and have the game end right then and there, but failing that, to have us lynch Aegor, and if he flips town, have a very strong idea of what that means and where to go from there.

Which I don't have.

[mastin2]

along with some basic VCA that decently points towards Aegor for the last scum.

mastin, I read your VCA, but a lot of your comments are just that certain VCs are "interesting" or something of the sort without further explanation. Can you summarize the VCs that you thought were most important and what those tell you about current players?

Well, I can't, because part of VCA is the circumstances behind the votes...which I know nothing about. I gave that VCA and noted potential trends in there, basically showing switches that I thought could be important. And wagon developments that could be, too. But me not being in the game at the time, I don't know about whether they actually were or not.

They're saying the same thing?

[mastin2]

I feel like 2026 is saying 'I presented VCA that shows that Aegor is scum'
I think 2029 is saying 'My VCA was presented to get opinions from others and I can't explain anything about it'

Which one do I have wrong?

Both?

The VCA shows a trend which I THINK points to Aegor, but it's based off of abstract (and largely arbitrary) things, making a ton of assumptions about the gamestate that I have no way of knowing actually hold water. So I brought it up mainly to see if others could shed some light on it.

[mastin2]

So basically. I kinda get a bit of a vibe. This is...well, a little hard to explain, but highly Xenoish in feeling, in that, well, I kinda get the feeling that today, we're going to lynch Aegor as a best-guess for scum, as a just-in-case, as the read we most likely agree on, that he has the highest chance of being scum (that's where I still feel like going, in fact)...
...But that he actually isn't. That in spite of me thinking that he could be scum that's trying to win a tough-to-win game, that in spite of me thinking he makes the most sense as scum, that in spite of me thinking that he's simply putting on a show and in spite of me thinking he kinda looks like obvscum at some times, that somehow he's actually town and that the game will go on after his lynch.

...And that in spite of feeling that way, we're going to lynch him anyway as a JUST-in-case.

Really kinda hard to explain that feeling, but I get the vibe that it means I can't just slack off here and actually have to do some work.

[mastin2]

So dealing in worst-cases,
We lynch Aegor, he flips town, someone's nightkilled;
We lynch Kdub (or Squirrel), (s/)he flips town, someone's nightkilled;
We go into lylo with three players, minus the nightkills.

ASSUMING (this is a bit of an assumption, though) that all three of the 'cleared' players are clear, that would necessitate one of them living to lylo, making it a 50/50 shot. (100% from my perspective, of course, but talking from objective terms, still 50/50.) But that does rely on the assumption of cleared players being clear.

Now, I THINK that Mac targeting PA can give us a reasonable window. It might not clear both players, but it can significantly increase the likelihood of their towniness. And from who the scum would target, I think we'd get a better idea of the gamestate. (They have to target one of the three conftown. If they're one of the conftown, then not targeting a conftown will create paranoia about conftown not being conftown, which the conftown-scum wouldn't want. If they're scum, they could try that to induce paranoia about the conftown not being conftown, but if said paranoia fails, then that'd leave two conftown alive in lylo to lynch the scum. Basically, not killing conftown is moderate-to-high risk, with low-to-moderate reward, so regardless of who the scum are, they're going to kill one of the conftown. Which conftown dies can be important, though. I just haven't fully figured out the math as to how.)

I'm thinking about it, and I kinda sorta want to try out lynching Kdub. But this is all without having really looked at any piece of the gamestate, for insight into how things went. I really was kinda hoping I could slack off this game, but it looks like I need to give a little bit of effort. (Note, though, that while I'm going to be giving a little bit of effort...I refuse to give a ton of effort. Builds stress, and isn't nearly as productive, and I have a life outside mafia games that it interferes with.)

This game's basically a near-certain town win, but I want it to BE that certain town win, AND for it to be that town win as quickly as it can be.

[mastin2]

So I'm isoing SMP. On the one hand, decently-powerful scum PR. On the other hand, pretty much no matter who the last scum is, definitely the weakest scum player on the scumteam and basically deadweight.

hmph...
SMP where are you? Why have you only had ONE post all game? I don't even think I'm usually this quiet, especially in a fast moving game like this.

Why the tunnel on SMP when I'd been equally inactive up to this point?

I imagine it's because I'm one of the only ones he's played a game with.

Looks potentially important, though.

You just noticed? Why was my catboi vote the one that prompted a vote on me from you?

This is a curious post. You don't deny what you were doing at all.
Does HKC always have so many posts, a decent percentage of which just kinda clog up the thread? I understand that walls are frowned upon, but a couple of those 1-2 sentence posts could be merged together to make things somewhat easier to read.

Would SMP group two scumbuddies together like this?

Jake, I can't even really disagree with you. If anyone else had the same amount of activity as me I'd probably think they were scum also. Unfortunately, I really just have been that busy this week.

I think there's one scum on my wagon at this point. Jake, you seem town motivated to me. Aegor seems to be in the same vein as Jake, though the no explanation votes earlier in the day are still somewhat worrying. I can't really get a read on HKC, there's so many filler posts that it's difficult to pull the worthwhile posts out.

That just leaves BROseidon. I think it's between him and whoever is controlling the ??? vote. BRO for the later in the game day middle vote (4th/7) that tends to push a wagon to L-1 and a claim. If a new wagon doesn't start up soon the original person usually gets lynched. It's not a strong read, but it's my strongest non-hidden voter read. Whoever controlling the ??? vote is my strongest scum read. They put their vote on me when it was only HighShroomish on it. If a wagon formed, great, they don't need to move it to help scum. If nothing came of it, they can just move their vote to the wagon that forms to quicklynch. Jake, you mentioned that you think you know who the ??? is, do you think they're town or scum?

Until I get a better understanding on who the ??? is I'm leaving a tentative vote on BRO.
VOTE: BRO

Jake interaction vaguely looks town, but no way of being sure. Aegor read also very vaguely looks town, but can't be certain. HKC was the scum-null-read, and I think this bit about BROseidon is decent enough to call BROseidon likely town outside the result on him.

I leave for a couple hours and come back to Jake and HKC blowing up the thread with their half drunken town vs town exchange.

AKA, not scum vs scum.

I like Anti's posts since coming into the game, though I'm not really getting the kdub read. Where are you getting that from Anti?

(Note, check Anti's reads. They tend to be awesome.) Seriously warming up to a kdub vote now.

I'm odd night rolecop + reporter. Last night I got a vanilla role result from my target. I don't want to reveal the name since if they're town then I don't want scum to have a person who isn't a PR.

But I need to look over who's the claimed true-VTs in this game. We know this claim's truthful. I'm willing to bet the result is, too. Meaning the result of vanilla is going to be on one of our VT claims. (I know I'm one of 'em, but I also know there's another player who's claimed VT and nothing else; if that was Kdub [I can't recall off the top of my head], then there's that 50% chance that he was investigated.)

Definitely thinking PA's town from this, though.

I targeted the Scar/Muffinman slot.

...Well, then.

SMP, can you claim your flavor name and confirm that your role is specifically called "odd-night role cop and reporter"? And to confirm exactly how your role works, if you were to investigate a PR (of either alignment), you would get their actual role (e.g. "cop", "doctor", "roleblocker", etc.), but if you investigate a VT/goon, you get "vanilla"?

I"ll Nall. My exact role is Odd-Night Rolecop and Reporter. Yes, you're correct. A PR would return the role name while a VT/goon would only return that they're Vanilla.

I'm not entirely sure what happened last night. All I know is that I got a vanilla result on Muffinman.

I agree, my play yesterday was sub optimal and didn't help town. I tried something different with a PR and it failed miserably.

Eh, screw it, might as well throw it out; it's not like he's in any danger of being lynched anyway.

Vote: kdub

.

[mastin2]

Oh. There's also more VT claims than I remember. (Four total, I think.) So only a 1/4 chance for any of 'em being cleared. (But he did claim it was on me, so there's that in my defense I guess.)

[mastin2]

Mara says Bro always thinks she's scum and so does AJ.

(Both slots I'm definitely saying town on.)

(AJ, Jake, and Aegor)

There is a minor question of, "is there a bus", but I lean no.

And seriously, HKC interactions with Jake, not scum-scum. Difference between sewing chaos and confusion and what they did, pretty dang clear. Soyeah, PA's town.

I don't think Aegor and Jake are scum together, though

Same here; it looks like setting up a townflip of one and then pushing for a lynch on town of the other.

Ehhh, i havnt really touched Kdub, though I guess I can see where you're coming from re him

Looks important.

Well, I guess it's more, I feel like someone between the Jake/aj is scum but not together and, if I am wrong on one of the reads, id much rather it be Jake because I don't know how ti work with town him while I have some idea as to how to work with aj

'Specially given this.

But then the go on a whole tirade of cyclical reads. Voting Kdub, unvoting him, saying not to lynch Aegor saying to lynch Aegor saying not to lynch AJ and then to lynch him. :/

They did go heavily about trying to save SMP, though, so there's that; wagons they'd push over SMP would therefore be more likely to be on town. Which casts doubt on the whole Kdub-is-scum thing. But that said,

Dude, we have 5 hours, join one of the counter wagons, don't make any new ones

Given the hypocrisy in this (checked and kdub had only one vote), I can still see it as being distancing-for-towncred. (Also checking there, there's actually no SMP wagon at the time.)

Votecount 1.24 (Final)

[7] HighShroomish (Kdub, SMP, Aegor, Mac, Jake From State Farm, sangres, Hello Kitty Creampuff)

[4] Kdub (Antihero, ???, ActionDan, HighShroomish)
[1] Antihero (Aj The Epic)
[1] SMP (BROseidon)
[1] Not Voting (PhDScar)

But I did read some context to get to here. When push came to shove, there were only two viable wagons. Kdub's, and the Shroom wagon.

/not hammering

I might, though after SG answers me

The former half gives pause to Mac.
The latter half overrides that and makes me think Mac's town a bit more.

Add HKC on to that list of people I would lynch today, that was really bad.

(Checking out context, not exactly this, but sorta along those lines, in that HKC was setting things up so that a hammer could happen at any time, it looks like.)

And the posts there also make Squirrel Girl look ridiculously town, btw. Unvoting and voting HKC there. (Mac also did.) I might check out the rest of the context 'round there later (seems an important phase of the game), but for the time being, finishing the HKC iso seems most important.

*continues*
...Well, that was fast.

Butyeah. What I gather from an HKC iso,
PA (Jake) is definitely town, with AJ/Squirrel Girl very strongly town, too. BROseidon is also very strongly reasonably town. And though uncertain, I THINK that Mac is town here, too. Which really leaves Aegor/kdub, in which I lean Kdub.

[mastin2]

I would be willing to lynch HKC if no other option is available.

I see no reason whatsoever to let Mac live. I do not believe his claim, and he has stated explicitly that he will not confirm it either.

This actually does look town, though.

The Mac wagon having disintegrated is a bit of a cause for concern, but overall, I am thinking town there.

Votecount 3.14

[4] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan, BROseidon, Hello Kitty Creampuff, Aegor)
[3] Hello Kitty Creampuff (Squirrel Girl, Antihero, Kdub)
[2] Not Voting (Mac, Jake From State Farm)

But this gives serious pause. :/

UNVOTE:
VOTE: HKC

Yet Aegor delivered the hammer. Kdub's vote was just a "shot in the dark"--the type of vote easily removed. Aegor's was a hammer vote, which if he was scum would leave him alone.

I suppose Mac being scum is possible, but I'm still really thinking kdub at this point.

It's not clear-cut. Just little things here and there. That do vaguely point that direction.

[mastin2]

scumread on kdub is back with a vengeance

(Antihero's last non-Mac scumread was back there, so there's also that.)

Basically, if I were sheeping the names of trusted town players, I'd be voting Mac, but since I'm following my own self right now and I feel like we're in game-winning mode, I'm voting for kdub. I think this plan even works if you suspect me to be the last scum and lynch me first. But I need to run the exact setup math to figure it out for surez. Basically, I THINK we've got it won, 'specially if you sheep me, but I'm not absolutely sure about that.

[mastin2]

Heck with it, upgrading tags.
VOTE: Kdub.

[mastin2]

VOTE: kdub sheeping mastin is fun!

Sheeping Mastin also makes her paranoid! (Okay, I think I did ask to be sheeped, so I guess not as much, but still.)

The rest of your case seems like you're starting with a goal of looking for reasons to call me scum and then trying to look for interpretations of things to fit that conclusion. Your case lacks anything I can directly respond to because it has very little to do with me and a lot to do with people who are now dead.

The former, no, you were just among the more likely candidates because of the latter, yes, I'm using dead scum players and dead town players combined with VCA to scumhunt. Which resulted in the POE where you were among the main possibilities. Is this a rock-solid case, no. IS it a case, honestly not that much of one; it's more of a 'best guess vote' that I just so happen to think should be followed.

Can you explain how you think we've got it won?

I'm not exactly sure about the math, so I could be wrong and it's objectively only a 50/50, but I think it's possible to do better. As I said, still crunching the numbers.

Can you explain how your VCA points to Aegor?

General traits that come up in lazy-VCA that ignore context, basically abstract yet vaguely holding validity as a scumhunting tool.

What is the case on Mastin?

Objectively speaking, you can actually make a fairly decent one against me off of dead scum's defense of my slot.

[mastin2]

Are you intentionally trying to be vague when answering this question?

No? I mean...that's really it. I don't have a detailed description on why I thought the VCA vaguely pointed towards Aegor. It really was just a bunch of general vague thingies using fairly arbitrary criteria that sorta pointed that way to me. Like, you're asking me to explain something that I've already given the most detailed existing explanation for. I can try using alternative vocabulary, but you're not going to get any more depth than what you have, because you've already gone to the bottom layer. Arbitrary trends in VCA, how wagons formed, positioning, switching, and whatnot. I really can't give you more than that because that's really all there was to it.

Is there a reason for this interjection? Are you looking to have me change my question or withdraw it or what? I don't understand why you're saying this and for what purpose.

None that I can think of. I just kinda saw it and commented on it. Not everything I say is going to be with purpose; sometimes, I just blurt things out. I'm looking forward to Kdub's official reasoning too.

[mastin2]

@Mastin - use the alternate vocabulary then. What might be nice is taking your answer "arbitrary trends, how wagons formed, yadda-yadda" and presenting them like this;
Abritrary Trends;
Example
Example
Explanation of examples.

How wagons formed.
Example
Example
Explanation of examples.

Since that is, what I am asking for. So now that you understand what I've been asking for maybe you can manage an answer, yes and please?

Um, sure. Not at this moment, though; that'll take a fair amount of time to do.

mastin herself hasn't been particularly town or scum.

A regret about only coming in now is that most of the people who would be able to tell ya that yes I most certainly have been town are already dead.

I do not think mastin has been scumhunting at all, no.

Admittedly, I've probably not done nearly as much as could be done (though JUST off of D4 posting...there's really no slot that isn't guilty of that ), but none at all?

[mastin2]

More specifically, mastin has just been posting tons of "analysis" that is actually more IIoA and then saying that it vaguely leads to feelings that someone is somehow scummy, but no more specificity can be provided, of course.

I fully admit the IIoA parts are IIoA, but I haven't posted JUST IIoA. (As for you wanting specifics. The thing about vague is that it's kinda the

antonym

of specific. As in, when I say I have vague feelings...I don't have the ability to specifically pinpoint things and tell you in detail what they mean because that's specifics that're the opposite of what I actually have.)

[mastin2]

She has offered promises of clarifying stuff.

Just don't expect it today. (Probs-not tomorrow, either, circumstances depending.) Final weeks of college and all that, slightly V/LA in that I don't want to have my rl suffer for my mafia games. (But I'm otherwise fine since I think I can get it done before deadline, depending on when deadline is. I can likely squeeze in time tonight if deadline were to be, say, tomorrow [same will be true tomorrow], but obviously, I have other things I'm juggling that I'd like to tackle first if not.)

I don't think we should lynch anyone until mastin clarifies what she is talking about.

It'd help if you asked me on what.
And also, for your own take on things. Like, I raised a buncha stuff that might not be strictly analyzed, but had implied analysis behind it, making it not pure IioA; there's stuff like my take on Aegor hammering HKC for instance.

I'll do what I can to show where I'm coming from, but how about you show me where you are, and not only that, but on the things I have, give your take on them?

[mastin2]

You feel very disassociated from the game right now.

Kinda goes without saying?

Butyeah, I'm on V/LA for today. And I want tomorrow off as well, but deadline's five days away and this'll still give me three.

[mastin2]

I'd prefer you keep a lynch on Kdub, since you're going to flip town I'm fairly certain.

[mastin2]

Waiting on penguin to post content :/

Basically,

everyone

has yet to, really, since the day began. (Aside from...replaced players. Jake, zMuffinman, and Squirrel Girl are really the only players who truly gave real content this phase.)

I suppose this game should be a higher priority than most, but for the time being, not right now. (Outta time.)

[mastin2]

For the record, Mac is town.

Please explain this to me.

Please

.
Begging you.

'Cause he's my secondary choice by gut after kdub.

[mastin2]

Can we please lynch someone?

My vote's on Kdub.

Beastcharizard's posting seems town immediately, which augments the already-strong townread on Squirrel Girl, and his trust in Mac helps a lot.

I also got the same overall impression on Aegor this game, too, in that his interactions may not seem the greatest (they actually kinda suck), but his individual posting seems decently strong.

It leads back to a Kdub lynch. I mean, this is another case where we'll need to re-evaluate things if we're wrong, and have plans in place

just

in case (which we more or less do), but I really, really think it's Kdub.

[mastin2]

Also, I am having trouble coming up with reasons why there was a NK.

Honestly, my best answers are either you/BRO choosing to no-kill or you being a Ninja.

I'm thinking Mac's not scum right now, and fairly certain beast isn't, and PA obviously isn't, soyeah. Just need that figured out.

[mastin2]

If you all lynch me because I "might" be a godfather put into the game to compensate for a 1-shot cop, then y'all seriously need to get your heads checked.

(I hate to play the card, and I'm not really gonna play it, except I kinda am in that I do hope you'll forgive me if I retain SOME skepticism about that given how a limited-cop can go against a godfather and a miller in the same game which you know from first-hand experience*.)

*Actually, now that I think about it, it's a bad tell to use, but BROseidon's probably town because if he actually WERE a godfather in

this

game, the thought of AP being a godfather in Tales wouldn't have been met with such strong resistance.

Anyone have strong thoughts about who should be lynched?

Given the above, the best I've got is you. :/

Vote: Aegor

.

But note the tags.

I think Squirrel Girl and beastcharizard are town.
Mac can only be scum if he's a scum PR that visits PA without doing anything, like, say, roleblocking. Furthermore, given the townread from beastcharizard, I kinda want to trust him on that. And him sacrificing the nightkill doesn't make that much sense to me, either, given that he can kill PA and claim it means the remaining scum is a roleblocker.

I mean, I don't trust myself. I could be wrong again. I said the same thing yesterday. "I really don't think it could be anyone other than Kdub." So believe me, it kinda sucks. But I'm back to thinking that, only as Aegor instead. But it's not a scumread so much as it is POE.

[mastin2]

So I did come up with a minibreaker plan last night.

-Lynch Aegor. If the game's still going, see what scum do.
-If PA is killed, we have four alive; Mac protects BROseidon.
-The results of that determine what to do.

It's a minibreaker 'cause while this is the most likely outcome of Aegor flipping town, it's not the only one. I'd need to cover Mac, BROseidon, and nobody dieing on all nights for it to be truly a gamebreaking plan, not to mention, having a clear idea of what each scenario's end result would mean, when frankly, I don't.

But it's something that I thought I'd bring up anyway, in case someone else can make use of it.

[mastin2]

I think I may want to lynch mastin.

Won't get resistance from me.

And beast, the ??s are VTs.

Also, it's not telling the scum who to kill. It's trying to figure out what can be gained from scum choosing their choices in (no-) kills. And also strategizing the most optimal way to make sure town live and scum die.

Not sure that makes sense, though.

[mastin2]

You seem to be pretty non-commital on a read on me, choosing to "believe" other players like charizard rather than yourself. Looks like you're setting up a flip-flop on me later on, or now even.

Actually, it was yesterday, not today or tomorrow. But yes, quite explicitly, flip-flopping. On everyone. (Well...not exactly. See below.)

Penguin, please tell me you are not townreading mastin based on meta.

Frankly I'd be kinda suspicious of her if she was, but I don't think so. I'd think it'd be more off of reading what I've written and thinking about whether this is town-motivated or scum-motivated. And while townplay/scumplay does delve into meta somewhat, it's not difficult to read me as town from it. (In part because of the meta, in that, well...frankly, a scuMastin has......more? Just "more". 'More what?' It's just more. Best description I can give.) It's kinda complicated.

Overall, though, I've thought her slot town fairly solidly from everything I've seen. From Jake to her. And I realize I've lost quite a number of farms to my gambling habits already, but she's probably the closest thing in this game I have to a "bet the farm, willing to lose game to if wrong" townread, sad as that is. (Honestly, I really don't feel like I should be townreading her. I really feel like I should be having a more cautious eye to her. There's a whole lotta logical minor things that while not quite alarm bells are going off all the same, but...I sorta feel like ignoring them, since there's a strong sensation from her that she's town all the same. Which, again, is a horrible way to read someone, I know, but what I feel all the same.)

BROseidon's additionally far more likely to be town than not thanks if nothing else to what I said. It might be a bad tell, but I feel like it's a legitimate one. BROseidon, in Tales, was among the strongest advocates that AP was town throughout the whole game. He had a result on AP. Thoughts of AP being the godfather were dismissed. And even post-game, BROseidon defended his decision, saying it was correct by the math to trust in the result. Now maybe, BROseidon is capable of isolating games so that what he said in that game was entirely detached from this game. Maybe, what he said was a mathematician's answer in that he meant it for this game too in that the result in general should be trusted even if in this specific case it was wrong. But I really don't think so. I really think his attitude there is reflected in his lack of being scum-GF here.

Then there's beastcharizard and Squirrel Girl before him. Squirrel Girl's posting just kinda, well, felt town. Beast has continued that trend. Honestly, whereas with PA there exists paranoia, whereas with BROseidon there exists paranoia, when it comes to beastcharizard...for some reason, I have none. Like, the above two feel like gambits of townreads. As in, there's actually risk behind holding those stances, in that if I hold them, and they're wrong, that's game over. (Well, assuming I'd be in lylo and be the deciding vote.) When it comes to beastcharizard, objectively, that risk should still be there...yet subjectively, I feel it isn't. It's entirely absent.

What sucks right now is that in the position of other players, I'd be lynching me first, since Mac and Aegor are both about equal, just in different ways, in that neither actually looks like scum. Yeah, one of them has to be, but I only know that because I know my alignment. (Thus why I won't give resistance if you decide to lynch me. But if you do, just let me get the chance to give a final number crunch to run things through to see if I can help posthumously.)

Mac has had both his neighbors vouching for his townness in the QT. He's additionally got a visiting role that does not interfere with PA's (thus, not roleblocker), when a mafia rolecop has already flipped. There aren't exactly a lot of mafia roles that I can see him being. Plus, the whole interaction with HCP looks good for him.

Aegor has more town posting, and actually hammered HCP, which would put him at a severe disadvantage if he were to be scum. There's other reasons I can't recall off the top of my head, but basically, his play has been less scummy visually, in contrast to Mac's, if that makes sense. But I do need to go back and review this stuff again to be sure.

That plan seems fine to me.

The problem I have with it is that if Mac flips town, it sets up an Aegor vs. Mastin lynch in lylo. All nice and fine, in that if you're scum, I know I can beat you in a 1v1 fight...
...Except I have to actually believe it to be a 1v1, which I probably won't. (Good if it

actually

isn't, bad if it is. Especially since doubt-casting onto conftown/player-who-should-be-deciding-vote-in-lylo is part of my standard scum tactics, thus making them paranoid of me just as much as me of them.)

That being said, if you're town, I think you can understand my concern about your willingness to rush in, here. You've shown a strong willingness to lynch me, and also Mac, which if you're scum, you need both of.


/needs to stop slacking off and run through the math for EVERY scenario. Then do the research.

[mastin2]

Running through the list of things Mac could be as scum:
-Rolestopper, depending on how bork processes the actions. (PA, you need to ask about that.)
-Tracker, but doubtful given the mafia rolecop. (Need to check bork meta, though.)
-A bomb of some kind. (Doubtful, given the hatred that bork got the last time he featured a role like that.)

That's...that's about all I could come up with.
No killing roles, so not a doctor.
No failure of PA's watch, so not a jailkeeper or roleblocker.
I can't think of any realistic role Mac could be that's scum.

[mastin2]

I mean, I suppose something like Fruit Vendor would be possible, in that it could be a mafia role that visits without doing anything, but...
...Really, that's grasping at straws, especially since if that were true, Mac would just, y'know, claim it.

Same thing for Hiders. (Also a bad mafia role anyway.)

I can see the mafia having some sort of role working on even nights to augment the odd-night role, but, well...what would it be?
Mac's not going to invent a claim he can't back up, so it's going to be almost-entirely-real, meaning his restriction of not being consecutive is real. (Not necessarily that he can only use his power non-consecutively; as mafia, he

could

feasibly lie and say he was when it's actually even-night, but you get the point.)

But everything I do that's so much as remotely trying to see Mac as scum is grasping at straws and violating Occam's razor in who knows how many multitude of ways.

[mastin2]

So, anyone here know what bork's rule on reflexive roles would be?
Basically, I'm asking just to make sure of something, though I don't think it really matters.

[mastin2]

Another thing I'm trying to do is to reason through the no-kill last night.

Why would PA no-kill last night? Letting Mac live has an obvious benefit, but between him, BROseidon, and beastcharizard (who--while not conftown--nobody suspects, thus, is a viable nightkill for any scum player), there's material for two nights' worth of nightkills without anyone batting an eye at PA's survival.

The same only moreso for BROseidon. Letting Mac live has no benefit, in that all it does is give an extra voice to the town while making both players harder to mislynch, thanks to role confirmation. I mean, I guess there's one thing that I can see (I think it's a bad idea to say) that I

suppose

would make this make sense, but it doesn't seem to make sense. He's already got the setup for lylo.

Why would Mac no-kill last night? Okay, this one makes sense. If he can only do an action or a kill and not both, it makes sense for him not to. Kill PA, people scream for his blood in spite of whatever he says, be it "I protected BROseidon" or "I protected her, but it obviously didn't work". Kill someone else and claim to have visited PA yet PA has no result...same deal, albeit more ambiguously. He casts attention to himself. So he does have a fair amount of motive for it.

What could justify Aegor's night actions? For a start, there'd be deciding to ninja-kill PA and hope Mac's off. But let's assume not-a-ninja scum. What's the incentive, then, to no-kill? It confirms Mac as visiting, making a mislynch there harder. (Admittedly, this is a point shared in all no-kill defenses; I point it out in BROseidon's, among others.) The best answer I have is to gauge the town's reactions, because a no-kill leaves us in the same position more-or-less as yesterday: nobody confirmed beyond what they were, no additional info, just a little bit of information that half-proves but doesn't entirely-prove Mac's story, yet leaves the game potentially vulnerable. (Maybe? I dunno.)

I don't really see anything clearly.
Like, maybe a scum player would angst over who to kill and end up not submitting anyone, but even if so, that still wouldn't leave us anywhere closer to an answer than we are, aside from ruling out Mac. (Technically, it'd rule out me, too, but I'm the only one who knows that. )

This all seems like a massive way of going in a circle and not getting anywhere productive. :/

[mastin2]

Okay.

I think it actually did have some minor productivity.

It makes PA's chances of being scum decrease slightly, from a more objective angle. Of all the players, objectively, she has the least to gain by no-killing. But only ever so slightly. Wish it were more strongly, since objectivity is one of the main areas I'm concerned about when it comes to PA. (Since subjectivity is already saying town.)
It's also reinforcing my belief that beastcharizard is town, too.

[mastin2]

(The sad thing is, people in the dead thread have probably already told me,
"MASTIN.
YOU'RE SO CLOSE.
YOU HAD THEM.
LOOK AT <piece of evidence I pointed out at some point> AGAIN.
REALIZE WHAT IT MEANS.
CONNECT THE DOTS.
THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES ARE THERE.
JUST FINISH THEM OFF!"

Even if

they

haven't,

I

have, in that, well, that's how I feel. Like the answer's staring me right in the face but that I haven't been able to put it together yet in spite of that. All I have is my best guess, which is Aegor, but if it's not him...I don't have the answer. I really, really don't. And bluntly, I don't think I ever would. :/)

[mastin2]

Is there any vehement opposition to lynching Mac?

Vehement, no.

Opposition, kinda.

Don't get me wrong.
It's fully possible beastcharizard is the zMuffinman of this game, and Mac the mollie of this game. In that it's fully possible that me not trusting him is delaying the end of the game, and me not trusting other peoples' doubts of Mac is extending the game, whereas if I just lynched Mac we'd get things over with. And it's not even particularly improbable, either; it's a realistic chance of being true.

It's just that I can't think of

how

Mac could be scum. Especially depending on the timing of his truthful claim in the neighborhood, combined with the setup as I see it. Mac either had to make up something, or would legitimately be 2x something. What would the 2x something BE, though? Not a tracker. Not a roleblocker. I can't really think of anything.

I mean, I guess if everyone's okay with the lynch, I can go along with it ('specially since Mac's play has been kinda...iffy, and I typically trust play over roles) after I run the math on if Mac's town, but I don't really get it.

[mastin2]

Say you lynch me, and I flip town. What happens next?

I commit seppuku.




(No, but seriously. I scramble around, looking for answers that make sense. Ultimately, I probably go for a no-lynch so that we have a 3p lylo instead of a 4p mylo, since I wouldn't be able to clear any player. I hope and pray that, scum or town, I'm voted, so that the burden of the game isn't placed on me. And if I'm voted by town, I gracefully accept the loss since I had no clue who the scum was up to the very end, meaning that the scumbag earned their win. Or if, for SOME reason, SOMEHOW, I end up the hammer--dear god, why would the town player be STUPID enough to do that--I angst over it for nearly the entirety of the deadline, circle-jerking the whole way, trying to make sense of things before ultimately going with my gut instinct.)

[mastin2]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand, I'm paranoid now.

Unvote: Aegor

.

Aegor, remember this?

My only hesitation was if mastin had some other suspect. Since that is not the case, leggo.

Said about me. But, wellllllllllll......

I still think my theory has the best chances of victory but it probably has the most drawbacks if I am wrong. I unpropose my theory now.
Mac, I will tell you tonight my theory and why I thought lynching you would greatly increase our chances of winning the game.

This works for me I guess?
VOTE: vote: Aegor[/b]
back to here. still think he's scum. mastin has also entered my brain but I'm not sure what to think about her atm.

That.


Something about it is tripping all sorts of alarm bells.

Like, I can't think of any way, logically, that Mac would be scum here.
But, well...that's kinda the impression I suddenly got. :/

[mastin2]

(People actually FOLLOWING me doesn't help matters, either.
Like, I suddenly got an overwhelming warning bell telling me, "The Aegor lynch is wrong."

No clue why it's that strong.
But, well...it is.

And until I sort that feeling, no lynching there.

I suppose there's a bit in that while his tone is a bit flat, what Aegor's

saying

still looks town to me, combined with Mac's posting seeming...well, not so town. But I dunno.
For the moment, call it Aegor nullishtown and Mac nullishscum.

...Which in a way I suppose makes me simultaneously guilty and not guilty of that same thing, but I need to sort it.

We do have the time to, soyeah.)

[mastin2]

I suppose I should start with the obvious.

Mac:

What made me enter your mind?
Why can't you make anything of me?
Why haven't you put the time and effort into figuring me out?

[mastin2]

Guh. I'm going into full-blown paranoia mode.

Not necessarily that others are scum, mind you.
Simply that it'd be possible both Mac and Aegor are town and that thinking it's them could screw us over. :/

(Overall, Mac's still my best guess right now.
If it actually

is

Aegor, I owe the dead town [one or two in particular] an apology for this paranoia, but I

need

to pursue this, sorry.)

[mastin2]

PA:

So yeah, not interested in lynching the cop-cleared player on the offchance there's a GF. Especially when this is apathetic town-BRO.

Just to be sure, does this still hold?
And about how confident in it are you?

Aegor's too good a player to be going down this rabbit hole, but a miller with a one-shot cop is equally improbable. I'd lynch Aegor or Mac and take it from there.

I realize this was your initial opinion, but I'd like as much detail on your opinion of the two explained as possible.

Also, this might be obvious by looking at context and I'm doing it from iso, but why is Mac lynchable here yet you asked him to protect you just before that?

I'll be very surprised if this is scum-mastin.

I realize you have the tell on me (still insist it's not really that valid, btw), but can you explain the townread on me more clearly? Especially since with the Kdub lynch I kind-of

did

display some symptoms of your tell, yet as far as I can tell it didn't raise alarm bells to you.

And while I've felt the same way and don't exactly blame you if you can't properly verbalize it, what exactly makes SG/BC's slot town to you?

(Uhg. I'm honestly not sure if these questions will actually be helpful in figuring anything out. But I don't have any better ideas for how to pursue solving my paranoia, here. :/)

[mastin2]

VOTE: Aegor
Ok, I feel like if Aegor isn't scum then tomorrow will be easy to pick out the scum.

Assume Aegor's town.
Assume you die.

Lay out who's scum.
(Especially important if, y'know. You think it's Mac and the only person capable of relaying that is......Mac.)

In general, I could use your thoughts on everyone.
Like, you haven't commented on BRO at all; you've asked PA questions but haven't given a read, and similar for me. I've picked up the impression of townreads on all of us, but never anything explicit and with no reasoning attached to it.

[mastin2]

Guh. Really need questions to Aegor and BRO, too, and probably more to Mac, but can't really think of anything.

Oh, here's one.

BROseidon:

I realize you're apathetic, but where do you stand overall when it comes to players? Give whatever you've got, even if it's virtually nothing. Like, gun-to-head instinctive reactions are better than absolutely nothing. (Granted, even better is actually-analytical stuff, but while I'd

prefer

you do that, I can understand not having done so.)

[mastin2]

Oh, and,

To everyone:

Challenge me.
I could use people asking questions of their own to me. Might help stimulate me enough to help figure things out. (I typically work best when I have someone who serves to keep me in check and give me focus. Which questioning me can do, by pointing things out I had forgotten about or didn't think about, soyeah.)

[mastin2]

OK, briefly, beast and SG are/were both looking to solve the game in a way that I don't see coming from a last scum standing. Way too much effort for a solo scum who has no suspicion on them. Solo scum here who's a neighbor with Mac should find it easy to take a stance, vote one way or the other, with the other choice as a back-up and toss mastin in there as a paranoia option. Not question my towniness when they don't need my mislynch to win. Hope that helps.

Actually, yeah, it does.

@Mastin:
Why is Mac scum? Like what about him exactly is scummy? Link me posts or something.

If I knew that, this would be a much, much easier read to call.

Explicitly don't know, aside from gut.

Like, I guess...this kind of play is just the sort of thing I suppose I'd expect from a scuMac? Mac when town normally is obvtown yet doesn't feel that way to me this game. His posting hasn't seemed like the strong him I remember. General, vague things like that which explicitly do

not

have anything concrete tied to them, being basically just feeling.

Like, his post near the top of last page rubbed me the wrong way, setting off alarm bells that he may be scum setting up an Aegor-then-mastin chain lynch for victory, but even that wasn't strong, merely serving as the catalyst for the sudden wave of doubt. (Plus your vote.) Oh, and while I can see Aegor's posting here as being from scum, his recent posting is really right on the money hitting all the right notes to make me think, "this is what town being mislynched would think".

[mastin2]

1. You don't see the neighborhood.

Oh.

This, too.

Like, you can get town players townning it up in neighborhoods. (JSU/F-16/pie.)
...But while possible, that causes an immense frustration/paranoia of the town outside the picture, mainly because...
...It is much, much, MUCH easier to get scum players manipulating and becoming obvtown in said neighborhoods. (Nacho/PA.)

I've already said your flip flop reminded me of what did you to me in Anything Goes (ie - you read me as strong town and then moulded me into a lynchable player, eventually lynched) and now I'm still seeing it especially now. Aegor is still top of my list, and you can quit the charade where you seem to think you have been the only one pushing Aegor when he's been my top scumread since d2/3, can't remember which. But yeah, you're a possibility if Aegor is somehow town.

I suppose this in particular is also setting off alarm bells.

I'm displaying a trend, quite strongly, that you perceived in Anything Goes. Not only is the trend similar, but virtually identical, in that you have a confirmed role yet I'm thinking you're scum in spite of that. The timing's even the same: not pushing you yesterday (two days before lylo/mylo), but pushing you the day before lylo/mylo with a self-admitted backup-plan of sorts. (It should be fairly obvious that a scuMastin is going to set up an Aegor/PA lylo. Because if PA continues to townread me, it'd lead to victory, and if not, if she voted me, then a scuMastin would gamble on paranoia that she's not conftown and plead to Aegor about it, pointing out the town trends and emphasizing all the town things I've done.
Oh. And did I mention the waffling, under the guise of paranoia? That, too.)

And yet, in spite of that...I'm just a possibility? Even your language usage is implying that you think I'm faking stuff. ("quit the charade" is not a phrase you mutter to a town player often, yaknow.) Aegor's at the top of the list, in spite of the fact that by all reasonable accounts, you should be having me as much more than just a possibility. Why so little focus on me? Why just default to Aegor? Like, you said why you haven't bothered sorting me...but why not, when I've shown what to you should be a red flag warning sign?

I don't understand it coming from a town-you. I can't see how, not even in apathy, you'd just casually think, "eh, Mastin may be scum"...
...ESPECIALLY knowing my skill as a scum player. If the possibility existed for me being scum, why instantly just place Aegor above me when simply put, Aegor's not nearly as competent a scum player as I am? When leaving a scuMastin alive a day could spell the town's death? What makes Aegor that strong a read, and me such an insignificant one?

I don't get it.

[mastin2]

(Oh. I think I just stumbled upon one of my tells.
I'm making a "reading Mastin" flowchart, and one of the things I think I can put on there is a trend that I have.

"Is Mastin making a case for why she could be scum?
Yes-->She's town.
Kinda?-->Prob-town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is Mastin making very strong reasons why she's town?
No-->She's town.
Kinda-->Prob-town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
Yes-->Proceed."

Note that 'tells' is more like, "guideline" than actual rule, though. Still, I think it holds.
Not really relevant, though, since you have no reason to trust its accuracy 'til I'm dead. At which point it's kinda useless. )

[mastin2]

(Oh, and I think rambling in-thread's already there*, but if not, it should be.)

*Relies on scum having daychat. Scum have daychat, in-thread rambling = decent towntell. Scum don't have daychat, rambling = prob-null, maybe slight townlean. Scum daychat ambiguous, assume slight townlean.

[mastin2]

(Oh, should be noted. Last scum, rambling in-thread gets upgraded to major towntell, since scuMastin typically keeps rambles to the scum QT about why she's screwed*. )

*Or about differences in her towngame/scumgame, and running commentary, and ranting at the mods for an "unbalanced" setup......

[mastin2]

Why would AD get killed N1? He had 26 posts, and scum either figured out he was a PR, or his death strongly implies that mastin is the last scum.

Umm...I replaced in day four, not day one?

(As if we needed more proof BROseidon was town, this is a fairly huge townslip.)

[mastin2]

I wish mastin and penguin replaced into the opposite slots. Is it too late to have this happen?

Not that it'd make much of a difference. (Aside from the remote chance of PA being scum. If that were the case, I'd have LOVED to be in her spot instead of mine. ) All it'd really do is make me inclined to think SMP's result on zMuffinman (my slot) makes my slot town a bit, which I'd be thinking anyway off of the play of the slot, and me having PA's slot and knowing them to be town, would be left...

...In exactly the same spot I am right now, thinking that one of Mac/Aegor is scum. Actually, I'm kinda glad I'm not in PA's slot, 'cause in PA's slot, I'd be "more conftown" than I am in my slot, meaning that while not clear, I'd be far more likely to be left with the hammer than I am in my current slot. Basically, PA's slot is more likely to be left the decider, a position that I absolutely HATE being in, soyeah.

[mastin2]

Guys, should I read the Jake/Muffin pissing contest?

I haven't decided that myself.

I know I skimmed it, but aside from thinking Jake's slot was likely town from it, otherwise came up with nothing...especially since I was thinking that already.

[mastin2]

Why this soft of a response here, when, when I called you out on something similar in Tales of You (your response to AP's entrance from AG in Tales being the same across both games) you responded more pointedly?

Because here I'm actually having doubt? Like...*points to votecount* I'm not voting Mac for a dang-good reason.

I've had paranoia literally everywhere.

You. (Addressed.)
SG/BC. (Almost entirely addressed, in addition to just general vibe of things.)
PA. (Not really addressed, but let me put it this way, PA's a strong townread aside from the Paranoia, stronger than Aegor or Mac.)
Aegor both ways.
Mac both ways.

I can give you overall thoughts.

That overall, my paranoia about Mac being town is not as strong as my paranoia that Aegor is town.
That overall, my paranoia about SG/BC being scum is weaker than my paranoia about PA being scum which is weaker than my paranoia of Aegor being scum and that paranoia of him being scum is weaker than on Mac.

I can say that by gut-feeling, that's my most-town to least-town list.
I can say that there are arguments both ways for both Aegor and Mac being either alignment, of approximately equal strength, on logical merits.
I can also say that Mac's role logically makes him town.
But that my read on him is overall still "likely last scum".

But you have no id--
Actually, yes you do. You have

every

idea of exactly what I'm going through. How much that's wavering. That racking doubt. A mental, "Aaaaaaaaahg. (This sucks.)", you could say. I can't figure it out. I've been trying all day. I've been trying to solve the game. But while I have some things I think more strongly than other, general directions and vague pointers that tell me something's slightly more likely (in particular, me really, really wanting PA to be town), there's that niggle of paranoia holding me back from making the call.
Overall, if nothing else by trusting the dead, I'd kinda want to lynch Mac, but I really don't know for sure.

You putting Aegor/PA as your strongest two town players does help me, though. Puts my mind more at rest that someone who's going through similar (your posts make it really, reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally obvious you don't really have a clue, either) is saying that both of them are town.

I'm probably going to end up voting Mac, but I want to be as sure as I can be.

A tl;dr version, I suppose you could say, is that you're asking me why I haven't pushed harder...
And my answer is that I want nothing more than the ability TO push harder and have that confidence.

[mastin2]

Uh, AD was tunneling your slot.

Oh. Didn't know that.

I'll take a look at his posting to see if there's anything that can be found in it.

Speaking of which, probably need a more in-depth look at all the nightkills.
Like, the sangres kill I get. Dunno if the cop result was public or not, but doesn't matter: sangres is sangres. Nacho and ffery. They're bound to have other reasons to be nightkilled.

Admittedly, I think the answer would be as simple as HCP in that nobody would want them dead more than Bert/Mara, but they may have died on other aspects.

Antihero obvious claimed his roleblock, but could also die for other reasons. I also need to look to see if he 'crumbed a target. I sincerely doubt he'd go into the night without a target in mind.

[mastin2]

I'm probably going to end up voting Mac, but I want to be as sure as I can be.

About that.

If it looks like I'm confbiasing, call me out on it please.
I'll do what I can to make sure that my read is fitting the evidence, not vice-versa, but given how much I'm relying on feeling this game, that's...not exactly something I have much confidence in.

(Oh. Another thing I should probably do is peak at the mislynched town players, the composition of their wagon, and see if there's so much as a hint of Tales-Scum-Strategy in play.)

[mastin2]

Just went in and realized that the D1 wagons were all on town as far as I can tell, so scum could be anywhere they pleased on them.

[mastin2]

[4] PhDScar (Aj The Epic,

catboi

,

ActionDan

,

BROseidon

)
[2] Aegor (

Kdub, sangres

)
[2]

Hello Kitty Creampuff

(Jake From State Farm, Aegor)
[1]

ActionDan

(PhDScar)
[1] Jake From State Farm (

Hello Kitty Creampuff

)
[1]

Kdub (???)

[1]

SMP

(

HighShroomish

)
[2] Not Voting (Mac,

SMP

)

[6] PhDScar (Aj The Epic,

catboi, ActionDan

,

BROseidon

, Aegor,

???

)
[2] Aegor (

Kdub, sangres

)
[1]

ActionDan (PhDScar)

[1]

Hello Kitty Creampuff

(Jake From State Farm)
[1] Jake From State Farm (

Hello Kitty Creampuff

)
[1]

SMP

(

HighShroomish

)
[2] Not Voting (Mac,

SMP

)

[6] PhDScar (Aj The Epic,

catboi, ActionDan

,

BROseidon

, Aegor,

???

)
[3] Aegor (

Kdub, sangres

,

Hello Kitty Creampuff

)
[1]

ActionDan (PhDScar)

[1]

Hello Kitty Creampuff

(Jake From State Farm)
[1]

SMP

(

HighShroomish

)
[2] Not Voting (Mac,

SMP

)

(Random note, but while I'm kinda guessing the vote on HKC is on policy, and while I know Jake typically has a tendency to be a bit of a busser, I still kinda feel like PA's town from this.)
This is the type of early-vcs that I'm talking about scum-not-caring-where-they-are.

[4] Aegor (

Kdub, sangres

,

Hello Kitty Creampuff

, PhDScar)
[3]

catboi

(Aj The Epic, Aegor,

BROseidon

)
[3] PhDScar (

catboi, ActionDan, ???)
[1] HighShroomish

(Mac)
[1]

SMP

(

HighShroomish

)
[2] Not Voting (

SMP

, Jake From State Farm)

This looks good for Aegor, though.

[3]

SMP

(

???

, Jake From State Farm, Aegor)
[2]

catboi

(Aj The Epic,

BROseidon

)
[2] Jake From State Farm (

sangres

,

Hello Kitty Creampuff

)
[2] PhDScar (

catboi, ActionDan

)
[1] Aegor (

Kdub

)
[1]

Hello Kitty Creampuff

(PhDScar)
[1]

HighShroomish

(Mac)
[2] Not Voting (

SMP

,

HighShroomish

)

Might I add, if this is a bus from Aegor, it is quite a risky one. Mac's vote sticks out; Jake's voting seems town.

[5]

SMP

(

???

, Aegor, Jake From State Farm,

BROseidon

,

Hello Kitty Creampuff

)
[2] Jake From State Farm (

sangres, HighShroomish

)
[2] PhDScar (

catboi, ActionDan

)
[1] Aegor (

Kdub

)
[1]

catboi

(Aj The Epic)
[1]

Hello Kitty Creampuff

(PhDScar)
[2] Not Voting (

SMP

, Mac)

Made much stronger her. For either Aegor or PA to be scum, both scum would have to be bussing what is near-assuredly their strongest PR. I'll need to check this out in-context, but it makes much more sense for the scum to be looking for ways to save their scumbuddy. HKC putting the wagon to L-1 for instance can be a deterrent from lynching the player in question, while the other two scum could focus elsewhere. But I dunno.

[3] Jake From State Farm (

sangres, HighShroomish

,

Hello Kitty Creampuff

)
[3] PhDScar (

catboi, ActionDan, ???

)
[3]

SMP

(Aegor, Jake From State Farm,

BROseidon

)
[1]

BROseidon

(

SMP

)
[1]

catboi

(Aj The Epic)
[1]

Hello Kitty Creampuff

(PhDScar)
[1]

HighShroomish (Kdub)

[1] Not Voting (Mac)

Sure enough, wagon disintegrates. Jake(PA) and my slot rise as alternatives. Of note is that Aegor and Jake are remnants on the SMP wagon...which again, is not a trend I'd expect from actual-scum.

[4] Jake From State Farm (

sangres, HighShroomish

,

Hello Kitty Creampuff

, Mac)
[2]

Hello Kitty Creampuff

(PhDScar, Jake From State Farm)
[2] PhDScar (

ActionDan, ???

)
[2]

SMP

(Aegor,

BROseidon

)
[1] Aj The Epic (

Antihero

)
[1]

Antihero

(Aj The Epic)
[1]

BROseidon

(

SMP

)
[1]

HighShroomish (Kdub)

And sure enough, Mac jumps onto Jake to push it into the lead. Which is particularly important given that HKC is another wagon, and SMP hasn't completely disintegrated as a wagon yet. Unfortunately, this is not nearly as helpful as it may seem, given...

[4] Jake From State Farm (HighShroomish, Hello Kitty Creampuff, Mac, Aegor)
[2] Hello Kitty Creampuff (PhDScar, Jake From State Farm)
[2] HighShroomish (Kdub, SMP)
[2] PhDScar (ActionDan, ???)
[1] Aj The Epic (Antihero)
[1] Antihero (Aj The Epic)
[1] Kdub (sangres)
[1] SMP (BROseidon)

This.

Still, though. Jake (PA) seems like a counter-wagon to SMP, so I'm highly thinking PA town now.

The next VCA shows lack of cohesion, which again, brings us back to the stage of 'scum could be anywhere'.
Which brings us to this.

[6]

HighShroomish (Kdub

,

SMP

, Aegor, Jake From State Farm, PhDScar, Mac)
[3] PhDScar (

ActionDan, ???, HighShroomish

)
[3]

SMP

(

BROseidon

,

sangres, Antihero)
[1] Antihero

(Aj The Epic)
[1]

Kdub

(

Hello Kitty Creampuff

)

Not helpful, Aegor/Mac. Really not helpful!
Not on that front, but this VC is really important in another sense. The SMP wagon had re-emerged. The other wagons are on the lynch and on a player I happen to know was town--so scum are going to be fine going anywhere, so long as it dismantles the wagon on SMP. And sure enough...

[6] HighShroomish (Kdub, SMP, Aegor, PhDScar, Mac, Jake From State Farm)
[5] Kdub (Hello Kitty Creampuff, Antihero, ???, ActionDan, sangres)
[1] Antihero (Aj The Epic)
[1] PhDScar (HighShroomish)
[1] SMP (BROseidon)

Bam. It's gone. We get competing wagons. With a guarantee of two scum on HighShroomish, and HKC on Kdub. They really didn't care which got lynched. So long as it wasn't SMP.
(On a strictly personal note, lest I be wrong on SG/BC being town, the D1 wagon had all three scum on it. But not helpful, given that Aegor and Mac are who I'm mainly trying to differentiate on.)


Overall impression, this does leave me feeling somewhat-better about PA, and slightly leaning towards Mac stronger, but need more.

[mastin2]

While we're doing VCs...

[4]

SMP

(

sangres

, Aegor,

Antihero

, Jake From State Farm)
[1] Jake From State Farm (

Hello Kitty Creampuff

)
[6] Not Voting (Aj The Epic,

BROseidon, Kdub

, Mac, zMuffinMan,

SMP

)

(Note I'm changing BROseidon to green, since the VCs also made me feel better about him, too.) HKC started voting SMP as well. But then we got this.

[6] SMP (sangres, Aegor, Antihero, Jake From State Farm, Kdub, Hello Kitty Creampuff)

[5] Not Voting (Aj The Epic, BROseidon, Mac, zMuffinMan, SMP)

Now, obviously. It was a quicklynch. Obviously, there was a guilty more or less. Obviously, HKC swapped back on because of a desire to cut the day short. But still, Aegor's position doesn't look like scum. (D3 in a bit.)

[mastin2]

[3] Mac (

Antihero

, Jake From State Farm, Aegor)
[1] Jake From State Farm (

Hello Kitty Creampuff

)
[1] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan)
[1] zMuffinMan (Squirrel Girl)
[3] Not Voting (

BROseidon

, Mac,

Kdub

)

This is where I mark the beginning of cohesion of the day. Again note that for Jake/PA and HKC to be scum, they've basically got to require bad blood throughout the whole game, likely reflected in a scum QT, which I somewhat-doubt.

[3]

Hello Kitty Creampuff

(Squirrel Girl, Aegor, Jake From State Farm)
[1] Aegor (

Kdub

)
[1] Jake From State Farm (

Hello Kitty Creampuff

)
[1]

Kdub

(Mac)
[1] Mac (

Antihero

)
[1] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan)
[1] Not Voting (

BROseidon

)

I'm not sure if it works in Mac's favor or detriment that his wagon falls apart for the HKC wagon. Aegor's position on it looks good, though. Him being scum requires him to have been bussing fairly heavily. Granted, he hopped off and onto Mac, and the HKC wagon fell apart after that, and the two were dueling wagons for a majority of the day, but still...

[4] Mac (

Antihero

, Aegor, Squirrel Girl, Jake From State Farm)
[1] Aegor (

Kdub

)
[1] Jake From State Farm (

Hello Kitty Creampuff

)
[1]

Kdub

(Mac)
[1] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan)
[1] Not Voting (

BROseidon

)

Where's the scum on the wagon? Granted, none of them are confirmed, but still...

I'm gonna break from VCA and point out HKC posting a little bit.

Kdub, aegor, and mac joining this wagon would put jake at l-1 for what its worth

This is a serious Jake wagon, not a joke. HKC wanted a Jake lynch. (Evidence for PA being town.) Which vaguely points to not wanting to be on the Mac wagon. Why?

I might, though after SG answers me

We get this thrown out there, but I really wonder why. It seems thrown out there, casually, as if meant to invoke reactions, rather than something they're actually planning on doing. Bert's impulsive--why wait?

Mac's probly town, this is a terrible lynch

They throw this out after SG answers, effectively saying, "nope, not gonna, just after we said we would".

even we're technically a better lynch than mac due to our lurkiness/apathy

If Mac's scum, then Mac would be some sort of PR, making this statement true.

Intent.

Which this could be invoked to do. Rather than being the serious self advocating for a Jake lynch or defending Mac, it's casual, as if thrown out there to stir reactions. And react people did...entirely dismantling the Mac wagon in favor of an HKC one. (That might not have been the intent of the action.)

[4]

Hello Kitty Creampuff

(Mac, Squirrel Girl, Jake From State Farm,

Antihero

)
[2] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan,

BROseidon

)
[1] Aegor (

Kdub

)
[1] Jake From State Farm (

Hello Kitty Creampuff

)
[1] Mac (Aegor)

And we get this.

[3]

Hello Kitty Creampuff

(Squirrel Girl, Jake From State Farm,

Antihero

)
[3] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan,

BROseidon

,

Hello Kitty Creampuff

)
[1] Aegor (

Kdub

)
[1] Mac (Aegor)
[1] Not Voting (Mac)

Turn into this. With a SG counterwagon.

Mac hopped off the HKC wagon he started.

(Also, this does point to SG/SC being town.)

[4] Hello Kitty Creampuff (Squirrel Girl, Antihero, Kdub, Jake From State Farm)
[4] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan, BROseidon, Hello Kitty Creampuff, Aegor)

Though Aegor did vote SG...

[5] Hello Kitty Creampuff (Squirrel Girl, Antihero, Kdub, Jake From State Farm, Aegor)

[3] Squirrel Girl (zMuffinMan, BROseidon, Hello Kitty Creampuff)
[1] Not Voting (Mac)

Ultimately, he hammered HKC when he didn't have to.


I think that does it.

Vote: Mac

.

[mastin2]

So I'm doing a Mac iso, and some things are sticking out to me as well.

Will try and get on before deadline but I'm not optimistic about my chances.

Something in this phrasing doesn't feel town. I'm not sure how to explain it, but basically, if feels as if a town-Mac would say something like "I don't see the day ending with any lynch other than my own", because there'd be a tomorrow with a town-Mac dead; a scuMac ends the game, thus, not optimistic about chances. It's a phrasing thing, vaguely mindset-relevant. It's not a strong tell, but it did ping.

You've taken a really weird claim here when in the hood & thread you say I'm town and you 100% believe, and now you're going to lynch me based on a theory? My word.

Not sure how to describe this one, either, but it vaguely felt dismissive, if that makes sense. As in, putting someone down, in order to manipulate them.

I had a bad feeling about you mastin, but I'm yet to put my finger in it. You seem to be pretty non-commital on a read on me, choosing to "believe" other players like charizard rather than yourself. Reminding me of Anything Goes to be honest, looks like you're setting up a flip-flop on me later on, or now even.
Meanwhile Aegor continues to derp around! And the sky is blue.

Just realized that for pointing out my non-commital to a read on him, his read on me here was...fairly non-commital. His push on Aegor also doesn't feel like he thought him scum, and the (for lack of a better term) snark also doesn't look great.

UNVOTE:
Im willing to work with Muffin and Bro atm since theyre my strongest town reads at the moment, muffin would you prefer SG over k
Hkc?
Aegor has rapidly moved to my strongest scum read for comments like 1900 but i fear its too late to wagon him.

This post was the moment of truth that I began my iso of Mac looking for. And, well...it's kinda...highly-dodgy.

The zMuffinman read has basically evaporated; I went from (second-)strongest-townread to secondary-scumread. Squirrel Girl was in Mac's sights here, and Aegor was getting targeted by Mac even then. I kinda have a hard time seeing Mac's thought process here as town, and changing as it has as town, when as scum this post makes a ton of sense, protecting a buddy, setting up a mislynch or two, and buddying strong town to get them onto your side.


Am I confirmation biasing or does this look like it's valid?

[mastin2]

'Cause I kinda feel like updating my tags.
VOTE: Mac.

[mastin2]

I BELIEVE

I really, really hope I'm doing what the dead QT wants me to be doing and they're continuing to chant this and have a squeal of joy and ecstasy at my points about Mac.

down for the massclaim too (if for no one else, then kdub at least)

I generally prefer not to curse, but I don't think there's any other phrase that conveys the same meaning:
Fuck me, I think we lynched Anti's roleblock. (And that was my mislynch, too. )

[mastin2]

@mac: confirm yourself to jake.
otherwise, there's not enough rope in the world to describe what happens to you tomorrow.

Another thing I wanted to note about Mac's claim.

If his claim is 2x as he says, if his bit about not being non-consec was a lie...why didn't he choose to reveal the lie by protecting that night? Especially on Antihero, who was an obvious NK target? Why did he lie and continue to insist on the non-consec in-thread...and continue the lie out-of-thread via not submitting a doc that night?

If he was town, delaying a night to keep his claim consistent would be doing absolutely nothing to fool town.

The mindset doesn't make any sense whatsoever from town.

I'll take full responsibility for the loss if this is going down the seriously-wrong-road, but everything (aside from my lack of finding a role that fits Mac) points to Mac being scum. His mindset, his play, overall scum interactions, overall POE, the nightkills, everything.

And I really don't think this is confbias.

[mastin2]

If he was town, delaying a night to keep his claim consistent would be doing absolutely nothing to fool town.

*Doing absolutely nothing to fool scum,
Doing absolutely nothing except fooling town,
Take your pick.

Point remains, town-Mac lying about being non-consec does so as a gambit (because there is NO town reason to do so otherwise):
Leave scum thinking he cannot protect either Antihero or PA that night, thus, is not a threat, allowing Mac to use his action on either Anti or PA. (Well, Jake.)
Mac stops the nightkill and/or gets confirmed, a day earlier than planned. Mac reveals the gambit, reveals his target, and the scum are left at a disadvantage.

...Instead, Mac chooses...to no-action, let Jake continue not to have a result (when Jake's a bit of a suspect, mind you), let Antihero die, and vying to use it on the night scum expect him to?

In what realm does that thought make sense? Gambits have to be done with some sort of purpose; Mac knows that. Using his actions N2/4 as 2x and claiming non-consec does...nothing of the sort.

As scum, it makes sense to have the non-consec claim, though.
Because again, it allows him to excuse why neither Jake nor Anti got protected N3.

I really, really hope this is doing the dead threat (Antihero in particular) proud and that "YES. FUCK YES. I believe, Mastin!!!" is being shouted.
Because to me? This seems like the final nail in the coffin for Mac.

[mastin2]

I did it?

...I did it!

I did it!

You have no clue how much small victories like this one help me.

[mastin2]

Well if Beast claimed nurse at some point, Mastin would have changed her mind and town would probably lose.

You seriously underestimate my powers of setup spec, then.

If Beast had claimed nurse, then the one thing that didn't make sense to me.
The ONE thing that was my strongest reason for thinking Mac could be town. ("He couldn't be scum doc since that's useless in this setup, but what other scum role could he have?")

...Would have been explained.

Beast claiming nurse would have caused it to click into place, and make me realize,
"Oh.
Now I get it.
Now I understand."

And made me vote Mac that much sooner.

[mastin2]

Mastin is going to be mad when she finds out that Scum Doc is a role.

I know scum doc is a role.

I checked to see if there was any town killing roles, and when I found none, concluded Mac couldn't be a scum doc. So I wasn't mad. Just surprised.

This is the same gameplay (or lack thereof) that got mac killed as scum in ceph's fire emblem large.

And I picked up on it!

(also the "i think mac is town" "intent to hammer" thing was another fairly bad thing to do because it, again, drew unnecessary attention)

I thought it was brilliant, in the sense that it drew attention off of Mac.

It just backfired in that it drew too much attention onto HKC.

[mastin2]

Fun fact: I isoed myself and looked at my progression on Mac.

Basically, the whole time, I said the same thing: "Mac's role looks town. His play does not." Which is what bork wanted, more or less.

I actually quite like the progression I made, since I progressively managed to put the puzzle pieces together. A lot of what I did was circular, but Mac was always in my choices pretty much, in that I was reasoning things through, and be it claim or play, other players were always coming ahead of Mac overall. And it really says something that the half-way point in my iso is on Wednesday, when I began the Mac case. (Which was more analysis than case-making. It was more to convince myself than to convince others. )

This game shows a fine example of why I am a fairly-strong late-game player, in spite of my utter lack of confidence: I might not get to this stage often, and I might never stop angsting over my every decision, but from a purely-objective viewpoint, there is a clear progression in my thoughts, my analysis slowly comes together, and it begins to put the puzzle pieces of the game together bit by small bit. Individual sections might seem stupid, in that they diverge from good play into bad play, but those individual sections mostly remain individual, in that they're soon put back into place. It's sort-of like a mental counter-argument, a devil's advocate, like I'm saying, "This is possible...but I don't think it's true", just on a more broad scale.
(It should be noted that I do these same things in the early-game, too...but they are done with me filling in the blanks a LOT more with wild guesses that I assume are factual just because I have nothing better to go off of. The results show: sometimes, I am really, REALLY right on things. Other times, really, REALLY wrong. And it takes a LOT of work. LOT. To mentally reset when I've had wrongness revealed to me. Which is one of the main reasons I get that doubt about my abilities, and don't like to live late in the game.)

It's not something I get to do very often. (Mainly because I'm averaging dead-before-N2 in games. ) And while highly-stressful, the relief afterwords is well worth it. It's not as fast as others would prefer, but...I can get it right. If not exactly, then close enough. (This was the same thing causing me to strongly prefer replacing into games in 2011. Like Underground Mafia, or Fire & Ice mafia, and similar; those types of game kept me on the site because I did similar to this game.)