Mini 1576 - Timeshift Mafia II - Endgame
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Anatole Kuragin Mafia Scum
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In post 2144, Anatole Kuragin wrote:I would love to go along with any theory that would clear my name, but there are a couple issues.
A) both kills could be on the same target - this isn't unlikely considering we have one more or less CI - studio, and tammy, who has already been shot once and most people see as town. basically everyone else is "lynchable"
b) mafia have another roleblocker or other disabling role of some sort - also not unlikely if all of the town role claims have been true, especially since messiah was goon
b is a hypothetical, should read mafia COULD have-
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In post 1736, Anatole Kuragin wrote:In post 1731, Tammy wrote:I don't understand the resistance to a massclaim, even if we have a serial killer.
We're down two scum. If we don't have a serial killer, we're only looking for one more person.
Also, if someone claims vig, and someone not claiming vig would give us a whole hell of a lot of information, if the game's not over when we lynch the third mafia, then we know it's a serial killer. Messiah Complex did not shoot himself, and if it's a vig, they have no reason not to claim that shot.
It gives us more information on the setup that way. I didn't say anything about a missing kill last night, but Bulba jumping to that makes me think if there is a serial killer then he's probably it and something happened to his shot.
There was only one death last night, which means either the vig is one-shot or something happened to their kill or they're a sk with an errant shot.
Mafia has ALREADY made their choice for who they killed last night, so it's not like they can go back and change it and kill someone different if someone claims something the mafia would rather have dead. They'll still be here.
If we have a better understanding of the setup, then maybe we can finish this today, unless there's a serial killer and our hunt will still go on.
Also, think about it. If it's a serial killer, he has no real interest in lynching the final mafia because then he's out there alone for the rest of the game. He'll want the last mafia around so that he has a better shot of winning the game.
I just don't see any downside whatsoever.
I am a Timeshifted Jailkeeper.
In post 1738, Anatole Kuragin wrote:Targeted pie, molla, and bulba. Feel free to confirm/deny if you've had your shit blocked, bb and bulba.-
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In post 2162, PeregrineV wrote:In post 2146, Anatole Kuragin wrote:peregrine, why are you skeptical about there being an SK still?
Becasue fo this:
Dead:
VictorDeAngelo, VT, was lynched Day 1.
Wake88, Town Tracker, was lynched Day 2.
These would be the night1 kills that came across night2.
Messiah Complex, Mafia Goon, was killed Night 2.
<Tammy/Studio BP claim> since they are not both scum, accept as truth, then Tammy-Bane was scum target.
InflatablePie, Mafia 2-Shot Roleblocker, was lynched Day 3.
This would be the night2 kills that came across night3
Dr Pants, VT, was killed Night 3.
Is this the mafia or SK nightkill? Or both? You jailkept Molla, was he protected or blocked? Bulba protested JeeshStudio, were they the missing kill?
Multiball (mutiple scum factions/SK) is usually not assumed until proven. TO that end, I'm not seeing proof.-
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Anatole Kuragin Mafia Scum
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pere I'd advise you to claim vig if you are, or you're probably going to get lynched. if you aren't, I don't think there is one. you are the only one that seems to think a vig is more likely-
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peregrine is either vig or sk, there's no other option with those posts from a rational player-
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Anatole Kuragin Mafia Scum
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In post 2186, PeregrineV wrote:In post 2162, PeregrineV wrote:In post 2146, Anatole Kuragin wrote:peregrine, why are you skeptical about there being an SK still?
Becasue fo this:
Dead:
VictorDeAngelo, VT, was lynched Day 1.
Wake88, Town Tracker, was lynched Day 2.
These would be the night1 kills that came across night2.
Messiah Complex, Mafia Goon, was killed Night 2.
<Tammy/Studio BP claim> since they are not both scum, accept as truth, then Tammy-Bane was scum target.
InflatablePie, Mafia 2-Shot Roleblocker, was lynched Day 3.
This would be the night2 kills that came across night3
Dr Pants, VT, was killed Night 3.
Is this the mafia or SK nightkill? Or both? You jailkept Molla, was he protected or blocked? Bulba protested JeeshStudio, were they the missing kill?
Multiball (mutiple scum factions/SK) is usually not assumed until proven. TO that end, I'm not seeing proof.
So, anyways, I stick to my opinion of Bert, Bulba, singer for scum.
Town for Tammy/Studio
Probtown for Anatole/Molla (Anatole even more for claim).
I'll concur with those reads except for singer/mara, who I'm townreading.-
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In post 2188, BBmolla wrote:1-Shot Vig, Jailkeeper, BP Giver, Tracker vs. Mafia 2-Shot Roleblocker, Goon, And X seems more balanced than a game with a Doctor.
that x sort of imbalances the equation though, don't you think? scum could have anything
I'm scared of lynching doctor, but bulba has been weirdly tunnelvisioned all day and the only case against me he has made is that I claimed jailkeeper-
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In post 2204, Bulbazak wrote:Molla, don't be stupid. We have 2 conf. scum and a clear path to a win. Anatole is scum, because there's no way there's both a JK and a doc in this game. I'll 1v1 her on this. Also, the way she's treated my claim is super scummy. Then we have PV, who just claimed 1-shot vig under pressure. However, if that was true, why didn't he claim d3 after it was shown the Messiah kill went through? Heck, why didn't he claim during massclaim? There was no reason to hide it on either occasion. Look at it from what should have been his perspective if 1-shot vig. He has proof that he's town. There's proof that Tammy is town, and by extension, Studio. That's a solid 3 person town block and enough to start destroying the scum team via PoE, especially considering the timeshift mechanic. Him claiming would have been the best course of action. Instead, he holds onto that information and doesn't let it out until a lot of pressure comes his way, and it looks like everyone is okay with his lynch. Why? What's the town motivation? The answer is that there is none, but there is a lot of motivation via survivalism if he's a SK. Anatole is final mafia. PV is SK. Game solved. Let's lynch them and go home.
What is scummy about the way I've treated your claim? at this point in the game you are by no means CI with that claim since it isn't proven and there is a possibility you are both lying and telling the truth. I have treated your claim with reserved optimism if anything.
and the only thing you have for me is that I am also a protective role. if you don't think that is possible, look at the setup for the last timeshift and how unbalanced it was.-
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Bulba being scum hunting scum would make a lot of sense for how he's gone after pere, who is the most likely SK if there was one, and trying to lynch me as a protective role.
What if Bulba is mafia or sk with rolecop/tracker/watcher? He has been weirdly going after me for shitty reasons all game, but I would think if he knew I was a PR he would have just night killed me. Maybe I looked like an easy lynch?
I'm not down with a policy lynch-
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In post 2216, Bert wrote:In post 2213, Anatole Kuragin wrote:I'm not down with a policy lynch
he was about to be lynched, and then he changed his claim to vig. that's not the same as a policy lynch. policy lynch as a phrase is thrown around too much these days imo :C
In post 2215, Anatole Kuragin wrote:if there is no SK then we know for a fact bulba hasn't saved anyone
what's your conclusion
Even though I think Bulba is acting scummy, I think it's a wasted day to lynch him because I'm already jailkeeping him tonight.-
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But I'm not lynching pere either because I've had him as a higher townread all game anyways-
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In post 2223, Bert wrote:ok.
im not opposed to a no lynch, which is something i stated a week ago when we were still under the impression that there was 100% an SK alive
it confirms bulba somewhat (outside paranoia) if we operate under the assumption that anatole is town JK, but this even number 8 alive thing is annoying though. even if scum JK, then that means bulba town
scum can totally no kill and frame bulba though soooooooooo
they would have had to submit a nokill last night though-
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In post 2229, Bert wrote:a lot of my posts are half-frustration from voting and pressuring several people because I thought they might be SK. It was a total waste of time now that I know they couldnt have been an SK.-
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dude, your entire case is predicated on the fact that I am not 100% sure that you are telling the truth or lying.
do you automatically believe or disbelieve every single claim with 100% certainty?-
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Anatole Kuragin Mafia Scum
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I have consistently held the same opinion all day:
bulba may or may not be telling the truth, if there is an SK it's more likely he is telling the truth, or that a doctor role is also in the game. regardless of this he acts fishy. I have said as much since the beginning of the round
i don't even know what 1v1 you means unless you're talking about dota-
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Bulba, if you were scum, wouldn't your claim be convenient, like I said?
You haven't saved anyone or claimed to, which means it's not at all confirmable. How is mentioning that REMOTELY close to a point against me? This is the kind of dumb reasoning that your case is made of.-
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In post 2268, Bulbazak wrote:In post 2255, Anatole Kuragin wrote:dude, your entire case is predicated on the fact that I am not 100% sure that you are telling the truth or lying.
do you automatically believe or disbelieve every single claim with 100% certainty?
In post 2258, Anatole Kuragin wrote:I have consistently held the same opinion all day:
bulba may or may not be telling the truth, if there is an SK it's more likely he is telling the truth, or that a doctor role is also in the game. regardless of this he acts fishy. I have said as much since the beginning of the round
i don't even know what 1v1 you means unless you're talking about dota
But it's not the case that you don't believe with 100% certainty. It's that the amount you believe in my role is directly related to the amount of pressure I exert on you. In the beginning, you believed in my role with absolute confidence. Then I started pressuring you, and you started discrediting me with the "Well, he hasn't protected anyone.", which is a low blow. If you're going to doubt the validity of the claim, you look at who I chose to target, not whether or not I protected anyone. You'd have to argue that Studio's slot and Tammy were not good protect targets on any of those nights. But you're not doing that. You're resorting to mudslinging because I failed to anticipate targets outside of obv. or conf. town. Then when votes started piling on you, it is only then that you started calling my claim convenient. Your stances are like sand and shift according to your needs and what you need them to be in order to survive.
P-edit: I'm good with either an Anatole or PV lynch, since both are scum. I'm not going to consider anyone else.
It's more like, the more you tunnel me, the more it strengthens your already scumminess-laden game. Look at your votes all game, look at your comments on pie.
and the point isn't that you're a bad doctor, the point is, your lack of confirmable saves makes it an easy claim if you were lying. I'm sorry if that's offensive to you, but the point is, if any of us were going to make a fake doctor claim, those are the exact people any body would list.-
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look at the first case you made against me today, it was 100% because of my role/claim and it's like you haven't read any other players' posts all day-
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and looking through your iso, there are so many weird and non-committal votes against me. it honestly feels like you have a bone to pick for some reason-
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In post 2274, Bulbazak wrote:In post 2271, Anatole Kuragin wrote:
It's more like, the more you tunnel me, the more it strengthens your already scumminess-laden game.
So OMGUS. Good to know.
Yes, I was voting my scumspects, who I talked about repeatedly, and I was against voting a strong town read. That actually sounds like town play to me.
In post 2271, Anatole Kuragin wrote:
and the point isn't that you're a bad doctor, the point is, your lack of confirmable saves makes it an easy claim if you were lying. I'm sorry if that's offensive to you, but the point is, if any of us were going to make a fake doctor claim, those are the exact people any body would list.
And the point you keep skipping is why I would make such a claim, which is essentially a CC claim, forcing myself to 1v1 you if I was the last scum. It doesn't make sense. If you'd do any sort of meta on me, you'd see that I am a very cautious scum player and do not fake claim anything beyond VT unless I know I can pull it off without danger. I'm not very creative in the fake claim department. Heck, PV should know that, because I had a golden opportunity in the Marvel mini with my Thor fake claim, and I didn't take it, claiming VT instead. And this isn't an aspect of meta I would readily mess with, as it reflects what I believe ideal scumplay is, and how I believe scum should play to win games. Suffice it to say, fakeclaimg doctor as last scum to CC the JK is a bad move, and there's no way I'd ever do that as scum.
So I'm provably telling the truth, which means that you're lying. I'm CCing you, which means I'm willing to 1v1 you right here, right now. Come on scum, call me on it and see if I'm bluffing.
ok sure let's 1v1 and CC
can you tell me what these things mean?-
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bulba, why do you think you are the only person in this game who finds it completely unthinkable that there is both a JK and a doctor?-
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and if we are both town, we just fucked the game for the other people.
do you see why I am not reckless enough to say with 100% certainty that you are scum?-
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In post 2282, Bulbazak wrote:In post 2277, Anatole Kuragin wrote:bulba, why do you think you are the only person in this game who finds it completely unthinkable that there is both a JK and a doctor?
Why are you so certain that there must be? Why were you so quick to accept my claim when simple setup spec would tell you that 3 town protective roles is highly improbable?
In post 2279, Anatole Kuragin wrote:and if we are both town, we just fucked the game for the other people.
do you see why I am not reckless enough to say with 100% certainty that you are scum?
This is a scum claim, btw.
are you going to explain how?-
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Anatole Kuragin Mafia Scum
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In post 2288, Anatole Kuragin wrote:how is that a scum claim?
this is where bulba stalls until i get lynched-
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no, 1v1ing sounds like the dumbest and most selfish thing to do in a team game where every life counts-
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because if we are both town anyways, how would me insisting you die next help? it's just a wasted lynch if you are-
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In post 2298, Bert wrote:In post 2294, Anatole Kuragin wrote:no, 1v1ing sounds like the dumbest and most selfish thing to do in a team game where every life counts
Even if both you and Bulba flips town, it would be 1 vs. 3 in 4p
Still not game over, assuming no SK.
I still am shocked we went "peregrine if you don't claim vig you're dying" and only that extracted the vig claim
Pretty unbelievable how today went. But yeah 13 of 14 days worth of productivity shattered with our SK theories
and if it's bulba, singer, pere, bert at that point, how confident is the town really?-
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In post 2304, Bert wrote:In post 2300, Anatole Kuragin wrote:In post 2298, Bert wrote:In post 2294, Anatole Kuragin wrote:no, 1v1ing sounds like the dumbest and most selfish thing to do in a team game where every life counts
Even if both you and Bulba flips town, it would be 1 vs. 3 in 4p
Still not game over, assuming no SK.
I still am shocked we went "peregrine if you don't claim vig you're dying" and only that extracted the vig claim
Pretty unbelievable how today went. But yeah 13 of 14 days worth of productivity shattered with our SK theories
and if it's bulba, singer, pere, bert at that point, how confident is the town really?
I don't see how town should feel confident at any point before game's end
my point is we have a lot more wiggle room without indulging an ego driven 1v1-
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In post 2319, Bulbazak wrote:If we lose this one, I just want to point out that we had them both in our sights but let them get away.
and if we lose it for lynching townies that you're SO sure are scum?-
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In post 2326, Bulbazak wrote:I just want to point out that Anatole started d4 discrediting my reads, and now he's ending d4 discrediting my reads. We lynch him or PV tomorrow.
so have you had any successful reads? because the two you have been most adamant about all game are clearly 100% wrong-
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and peregrine is probably town, which we should know for sure if there aren't two kills? no way with that claim he isn't either vig or sk-
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In post 2332, Tammy wrote:In post 2223, Bert wrote:ok.
im not opposed to a no lynch, which is something i stated a week ago when we were still under the impression that there was 100% an SK alive
it confirms bulba somewhat (outside paranoia) if we operate under the assumption that anatole is town JK, but this even number 8 alive thing is annoying though. even if scum JK, then that means bulba town
scum can totally no kill and frame bulba though soooooooooo
They already made their kills for last night.
beat you to it-
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sent a PM to defender, but I'm vla until tomorrow, sorry guys. also still not scum-
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I jailkeepered tammy last night. I didn't read the thread at all, just saw it was day and wanted to mention I was v/la in case I couldn't get a real post in tonight.
if there isn't an sk, bulba isn't scum, regardless of how anti-town he is being. I jailkept him and studio still died.-
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you really couldn't wait for me to answer before voting? why are you in such a hurry?-
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bert we've come along way from when I was accused of "buddying" you. never forget the good times-
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you were in my PoE list of three along with two people, one of which I felt was townie and the other I have gone back and forth non-stop. bert has been my only constant suspicion, but until the whole business with the tammy/sk stuff I didn't pay enough attention to you I guess-
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Anatole Kuragin Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4777
- Joined: April 19, 2008
- Location: Right under join date, please.
without an SK, you and studio are both conf-town, and I figured bulba would doc studio, didn't want to block bulba if he really was doctor, which I knew we would get an answer on today-
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Anatole Kuragin Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4777
- Joined: April 19, 2008
- Location: Right under join date, please.
bert, like I said, I didn't pay you much attention and you didn't seem like an obvious partner or obvious bus from either of the other two scum flips-
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Anatole Kuragin Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4777
- Joined: April 19, 2008
- Location: Right under join date, please.