—Mini 1635— Curse of the Werewolves: Game Over

[FourTrouble]

Vote: Southern

[FourTrouble]

Vote: four trouble

You want to explain why you voted without making any other comment.

No.

[FourTrouble]

ABR feels town.

[FourTrouble]

Iece is probably town, too.

[FourTrouble]

far is unsure to me but she jumps up in the town department cos what you are trying to paint as scummy or something (re: abrasiveness) is not actually scummy and I don't really understand your points here.

Why is far more town just because Konowa thinks she's scum?

[FourTrouble]

Unvote

Southern is probably town. farside feels town, too. I understand her votes, the frustration in 121 was very genuine, and I like her response to Konowa, especially 133.

Vote: Andrius

I don't like his entrance, or 186, or 190, or any of his posts. His comments feel like someone trying to post shit but not actually trying to figure shit out. Voting me is like going after the easiest target you can grab onto (besides folks who've posted nothing), especially with shitty reasoning like "underwhelming presence." I also don't like how he calls Nacho or Iece "still" town (admittedly this ain't slam-dunk evidence or anything like that but I think saying "still town" comes from a scum mindset even if town do it too; it's like unconsciously expressing that they won't always be town).

Also, for the record, I'm on vacation in Miami right now, so that's why I'm not posting millions of posts and explaining everything I do. I'll post my reads to let you guys know where I'm at, but townreads (especially on folks like ABR and Iece) are the last thing I feel like explaining. I'm not gonna explain the one on Southern either. If later they're under threat of lynching (unlikely but possible), then yeah I'll explain and defend them. But that's not the case, so don't expect me to explain them.

[FourTrouble]

Regardless, my vote will stay because I find it odd (or perhaps circumstantial) that you return after I vote you and explain this vote (one may put forth an case that this is OMGUS) whereas you refused to provide reasoning for your first vote. I understand that you are V/LA, and await more reads/content to the game. I do find it odd that the first vote/read you explain is mine, only after I voted you.

This is a terrible reason to keep voting me.

[FourTrouble]

So, to sum up your defense, Four, you're low hanging fruit.

No, that wasn't a defense. It was part of the reason I voted Andrius.

[FourTrouble]

Southern, I don't think 121 is independent of alignment - the genuine frustration isn't something scum feel when someone posts two townreads like I did.

[FourTrouble]

FourTrouble looks like town.

I like the style in this post.

[FourTrouble]

Sorry. I've been on vacation and thought I could be active but too much drinking/drugs - forgot about the game. I'm gonna get super active Jan 6 - until then please don't replace.

[FourTrouble]

I would be interested in elaborations on Andy being town, though. The best one I can come up with is that ABR didn't really hesitate to vote him.

How would that make Andy town?

[FourTrouble]

The opposition from Southern Gothic and All is Who is concerning.

[FourTrouble]

Iece, what're your thoughts on Flames?

[FourTrouble]

I don't see what's so scummy about ABR. I'd much rather lynch Andrius or one of the folks opposing his lynch.

[FourTrouble]

I've read. ABR's votes are impulsive - looks more like town than scum.

[FourTrouble]

Iece and far are also strong townreads (and that was before they jumped on Andrius, so I definitely feel good about those).

[FourTrouble]

Also, Andrius isn't burnt out - he had a break, right? - so his level of investment isn't very telling. More telling is who he votes for, when, and why. That stuff suggests he's scum.

[FourTrouble]

I never said anyone said that.

[FourTrouble]

What's scummy about that? Also, which specific posts are making you say that?

Who's case on ABR is fucking bad, btw - 99% confirmation bias bullshit.

[FourTrouble]

Okay, I see what you're talking about. You didn't really make your scumread blatant (i.e. you didnt attack ABR directly at any point), so I can see how he missed it. But you're right it suggests ABR's just skimming. I dunno if it's scummy though; it's kinda towny that he wasn't paying attention to what people think of him.

[FourTrouble]

It has a pretty small effect on my read on him, though, because the fact that everyone begged him for it could easily account for it.

If he can easily replicate his normal meta, why would an intentional departure from that meta mean he's scum?

[FourTrouble]

Pine, why do you suspect Iece?

[FourTrouble]

What's weird and forced about his reaction?

[FourTrouble]

far, why do you think Who is town?

[FourTrouble]

FourTrouble seems content to sit on the outside and ask what player A thinks about player B ad nauseum, which I find not particularly effective at best and scummy in a sideliny way at first. I know nothing about FT's meta either way.

That's not exactly a fair characterization of what I'm doing. You might want to look into my meta.

[FourTrouble]

Look. Andrius reads are what scum would have you believe they think. FourTrouble, me, and Peregrine. Take a peek at that list. I'm already under fire by Who and Icerint. Peregrine has been absent. And FourTrouble is already under fire too. No, I just don't buy it.

To be fair, Andrius voted me when only farside suspected me. The problem is that he's left his vote on me. Who would you lynch besides Andrius?

[FourTrouble]

Iece, just cause you do something as scum doesn't mean it's scummy when someone else does it. If you have time, look into my meta. Low quantity of posts and one-liners isn't a scum-tell for me.

[FourTrouble]

I'd hate to be lynched by my townreads...

[FourTrouble]

Iece, just cause you do something as scum doesn't mean it's scummy when someone else does it. If you have time, look into my meta. Low quantity of posts and one-liners isn't a scum-tell for me.

no but lack of scumhunting IS a scumtell for you or am i wrong?

Depends how you define scumhunting. As far as I'm concerned, I am scumhunting here. You seem to think otherwise.

[FourTrouble]

Southern, assuming I'm town, who would you lynch?

[FourTrouble]

I was just thinking Victor was scum via process of elimination, so yea I'm down for that.

Vote: Victor

[FourTrouble]

Also, Andrius isn't burnt out - he had a break, right? - so his level of investment isn't very telling. More telling is who he votes for, when, and why. That stuff suggests he's scum.

see now I think you made a vague attempt to catch up.

no1 said andy was "burnt out". <---- that is a misrep.

VOTE: 4 trouble

Is this "misrep" why you're so confident I'm scum?

[FourTrouble]

What are the others?

[FourTrouble]

Please explain how you got from having five reads to narrowing Victor down by 'process of elimination'.

Iece, ABR, far, and Pine are strong townreads. PereV leans town. Nacho is probably town but needs to post more. Southern was town but I'm currently reevaluating that. Their confidence that I'm scum doesn't seem to match their given reason (a supposed "misrep"), so we'll see. I also don't like their opposition to the votes on you.

That leaves Andrius, Who, Victor, Gilgamesh and Titus. Who's case on ABR was fucking terrible, but I don't know them that well, so I'm not sure if that means they're scum or shitty townies. far says they're town; ABR says they're scum. I lean town based on their effort and tone but I'm still working on that read too (similar to Southern).

Titus and Gilgamesh both haven't said much, but Gilgamesh's self-importance feels town. I also liked a couple posts from Flames (his "lynch me if I don't post soon" post felt town), so that slot leans town. Titus looks clueless, which is what I've seen from him as town, so I'm not worried him either. I'm more curious about Southern's view on Titus (especially given their suspicion of Konowa earlier). We'll see how that pans out.

At bottom, that leaves you and Victor, plus maybe Titus or Who or Southern. I also doubt that Who or Southern are scum together, so I'm ruling that possibility out in the analysis.

[FourTrouble]

Pine, "woe is me" acts aren't scummy per se (context matters) and that's not even what my "hate to be lynched by townreads" post was. I was voicing frustration/disappointment with Iece's vote and was hoping he'd look into my meta (i.e. I don't want to be lynched by you, so if I'm gonna be lynched, at least take the time and do some research).

[FourTrouble]

Why is Pere a town read?

I liked his early posts. 210 felt like clueless town, and I like the sequence in 508 and 509, explaining what he thinks about certain players to solidifying a few townreads. The "no comment" on Southern to calling Southern town felt very natural. I think scum would have said something about someone they're about to townread. I'm not sure why he voted me but the "we can wait" stuff on Titus also felt town.

[FourTrouble]

far, please vote Victor.

[FourTrouble]

Gilgamesh, can you explain your read on Titus and vote on Southern.

[FourTrouble]

Southern, why are you voting for me?

[FourTrouble]

I've come to expect dumb wagonhopping from ABR, but tell me, 4Tuppence, why Victor is the best lynch here. Exactly why do you believe he is scum? What will his scumflip tell you? Was there anything going through your head when you voted him other than "God, I hope I'm not lynched today."?

Yes, there was more to the vote than hoping I'm not lynched (though obviously that's a factor). Victor is probably scum based on process of elimination. I also disagree with Nacho that it's a "lazy" lynch. For me, it's based on townreads which weren't lazy at all. And Victor's "scumflip" would tell us quite a lot, in terms how/when people vote for Victor, especially in relation to the wagon on me, or potential counter-wagons on others. We don't need Victor's reads for that sort of information, and ultimately that's the kind of information I'm interested in.

[FourTrouble]

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Unvote.

This is town.

[FourTrouble]

I can't really comment on FT, considering the case of FT is mostly a lack of presence and I haven't read up on FT as much as I would have liked to.

Seriously? You've played with me before and should know that's not a scum-tell for me. Plus, I don't actually lack presence this game; I was on vacation until two days ago and didn't have time to post. And I value concision and don't feel like cluttering up the thread with meaningless bullshit like half the players here.

[FourTrouble]

Clarification: I didn't say or mean to imply I was scumreading you, I said I didn't feel informed enough to give an opinion on you since I'm still behind in the game.

I thought it was weird that you'd go into excessive detail about your townread on Andrius while not commenting on the main wagon (mine, which was recently put to L-1) but if you're not caught up, then okay that makes more sense. You should be townreading me after catching up.

[FourTrouble]

If you have strong townreads on 10 players, you have three scumspects. I feel you'd get a much better idea of if your perceptions would be correct if you pushed the stronger scumreads and see if they towned in response: pushing Victor tells me that you have the entire game figured out and I know you're not that bad/that blinded by arrogance to make that type of a push.

I don't have 10 townreads but I do have enough to justify a lynch: Iece, pine, ABR, Pere, far, you, and Gilgamesh. I have some doubts about Southern but they were also a strong townread earlier. For the record, I pushed Andrius most of the game, so it's not like I've pushed Victor all game. I pushed my strongest scumread first (before I solidified townreads on the above). So the only alternative to Victor is Who or Titus. Who probably isn't getting lynched though I'm willing to jump on that. And Titus is not much different than Victor (both haven't done shit).

[FourTrouble]

What do you think of my towncase on Andrius?
Why are my concerns with ABR incorrect?
Didn't Titus replace Konowa who was pretty town?

Re: towncase on Andrius - I addressed the stuff his passion earlier. Basically, I feel like players who take a break (at least in my case I've felt this way) tend to become more passionate on their first game back, regardless of alignment, so that's not really giving me town in his case (absent a break from mafia I'd agree with you). I agree that his early townread on Iece was towny but that's not enough to give me a solid townread on him. Your other points aren't very good. The first point assumes ABR is scum (which I disagree with) and also metas change (especially after breaks) so that's not very compelling. Your point about opposing the Victor lynch also isn't compelling, since Victor wasn't a viable lynch at that point (only me and ABR were on it), while the lynch on me was much more likely. What's the scum motive for supporting a counter-wagon (Victor) when you already have a good chance of getting a mislynch (on me)? I also don't agree that the frustration in 511 is specific to town; being misunderstood is just as frustrating for scum. Frustration is sometimes a town-tell (e.g. far's frustration with me felt town because it was frustration at her inability to read me) but not always; being misunderstood is just as frustrating for scum as town. Overall, I understand where you're coming from but disagree with you on most of your points.

Re: ABR -- I'm not sure exactly what your concerns are at this point. You made some sort of meta argument earlier in the game but I wasn't convinced by that. Even assuming your meta analysis is right (and I'll defer to you on that since I don't know him well enough), I don't agree that he's playing to the crowd. The "conditioning" comment also wasn't scummy - what's the motive there? It seemed like an impulsive seemingly-clever-but-actually-not response to being questioned for being nice, which is something I could see him doing as both alignments, but overall fits in with the style of play I see from him. For the most part, he looks like an impulsive townie trying to figure shit out like the rest of us (I don't see any deeper plan or calculation in his posts). I admit when he defended me I was a little paranoid that he was just trying to buddy me, but I'm town so there's not any reason to question his defense (it's obviously pro-town and there isn't any indication he "knows" I'm town).

[FourTrouble]

Fuck, I hit submit before typing up a response to the Titus question. To be brief, I wasn't townreading Konowa, and Titus hasn't done shit, so I'm null on that. I think far is town so at the least Konowa's only push seems pretty questionable.

[FourTrouble]

The major points of their scumcase on ABR are:
1) Buddying, which Pine talked about at the beginning of the game.
2) The threat post, which I talked about at the beginning of the game.
3) Not enough reasoning on his quick position changes? Which seem to be an ABR staple?
4) Not interacting with the hydra as a whole.

I find this a surprisingly bad case, considering how scummy in general ABR's been this game? It didn't seem like either of them built up to the ABR case at all before dropping that huge one, which is another red flag/gigantic question mark (feels like they were just trying to ram through the lynch for the lynch's sake). It's also a major problem that this is all the content that this hydra has provided to the game thus far.

This mirrors my exact thoughts about Who's case.

[FourTrouble]

Nacho, I just wrote out an extensive post answering your questions and explaining my read on Andrius but my internet fucked up and deleted it, so... I'm not typing all of that up again right now so this is gonna be brief. I agree that voting easy targets isn't always a scum-tell; good reasons to vote someone are good reasons, regardless how easy the target is. My point earlier was that Andrius wasn't engaged with the game, he was just posting shit to "look" engaged. Going after easy targets is what folks do when they're not struggling to sort alignments on a deeper level; you're just finding the easiest person to fake a vote on. 197 is where I started solidifying that read; Andrius continues voting me but this time it's for voting him... plus he also acknowledges I'm V/LA. At this point, he doesn't seem engaged with the game; his reason to vote me sucks and he's not looking at anyone else. Then notice how he "suspects" ABR, but keeps his vote on me. He just adds fire to the mounting suspicion on ABR but doesn't engage that read. He just puts it out there as support for a potential wagon. Then he "suspects" Pere, but of course keeps his vote on me. I'm V/LA for more than a week, but his vote still stays on me the entire time. The gamestate changes dramatically but there's no engagement. He's the only one voting me and when he suspects anyone, it's easy targets like ABR and Pere. Also his reason for suspecting Pere: Pere says he doesn't have any reads. No one else comments on that (as far as I remember) and for good reason. I think any townie can relate to that feeling so why is that suspect? It's not. But it's certainly an easy place to cast suspicion. There isn't any depth or independence of thought, which is what I expect from townies. I get back from vacation and he's still voting me. His townreads are anyone who suspects the same people as him, and his scumreads involve anyone voting him (he even casts suspicion far's, which is pretty bad). All of this just tells me exactly what I initially suspected (yes this might be confirmation bias but seriously think about it and tell me if I'm wrong): he's not engaged with sorting alignments, he's just going after easy stuff to grab onto (not just easy targets but easy points to cast suspicion onto), and he hasn't moved his vote even once.

[FourTrouble]

Vote: Who

This might change. I plan on rereading the game tomorrow and hopefully getting a fresh set of reads so I might come back with a completely different perspective.

[FourTrouble]

I agree with you that his Iece read was towny. I don't think the "no reads" thing is a tell, and I think justifying it as one because you saw scum do it once is really shallow. But you're right that he might genuinely believe that. I haven't read that other game and I haven't seen how Andrius plays, so maybe he legitimately thinks that's scummy.

[FourTrouble]

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I disagree that his continued vote on me was justified but I'm too tired to get into that right now. I'm going to sleep and then rereading tomorrow.

[FourTrouble]

Iece, how do you feel about Who?

[FourTrouble]

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Again, the pattern of asking X about Y over and over feels very canned and "this is my alt that can only ask X about Y over and over." Like it's almost policy lynch level for me. I find it like ideologically abhorrent. It makes it really hard for me to give you any kind of benefit of the doubt.

First, I haven't only asked X about Y; I've also given my reads, voted, and answered any questions folks have about my reads or votes. Second, there's nothing wrong with asking X about Y; it helps me scumhunt. Third, I do it as town more than scum, so it's a terrible reason to vote me. Also, it's not "canned." Each question had context (e.g. asking far about Who came after Who's shitty case on ABR, and I wanted to know if there was something towny about them that I was missing).

[FourTrouble]

Andrius, Pere's unvote was towny because of when he unvoted (right after Who put me at L-1). I think scum are more likely to leave their votes alone in that situation because there's always a potential hammer; there's no reason for scum to move their vote.

[FourTrouble]

Iece, where are you on Andrius?

[FourTrouble]

Iece, you're not the first to notice the questions. Take a look this: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5787387. It's not a scum-tell for me, so please stop voting me on that basis.

[FourTrouble]

Gilgamesh is probably town. His reads have a lot of depth that's hard to fake as scum.

[FourTrouble]

Voting me just because I "could" be scum is no better than a random vote. Better to have joined the Victor wagon.

[FourTrouble]

I'm going to preface this by saying that someone has inspired me to begin with my gimmick again. Well done.

my faulty memory interfered

But I thought you were perfect. My heart, she breaks.

New idea.

Unvote, vote Victor

Four, gogo.

I was just thinking Victor was scum via process of elimination, so yea I'm down for that.

Vote: Victor

This is pretty bad. Like, maybe the worst thing all game. I've come to expect dumb wagonhopping from ABR, but tell me, 4Tuppence, why Victor is the best lynch here. Exactly why do you believe he is scum? What will his scumflip tell you? Was there anything going through your head when you voted him other than "God, I hope I'm not lynched today."?

VOTE: FourTroubles

L-1.

~BROseidon

Iece, take a look at this vote. Who puts me at L-1 for voting Victor. How is this not raising more red flags?

[FourTrouble]

Andrius, there's a difference between what's "probable" and what's "possible." I voted Victor because I believed (this might change as he's catching up) him probably scum via process of elimination and a weak, unoriginal catch-up post earlier in the game. I'm voting Who because I believe they're probably scum, based on their terrible ABR case, their terrible vote on me, and their generally superficial analysis of the game. Iece is voting me because he thinks I "could" be scum, which is the same as saying it's "possible" I'm scum. There's no "probability" analysis involved there, so it's no better than a random vote.

[FourTrouble]

Andrius, mislynching is bad for the Town, so trying to stay alive is town-motivated. Also, that's not the "only" thing I'm doing; I'm also trying to find the scum. I understand you think that's just part of my defense-tactic (and of course building a viable counter-wagon is part of my defense) but I'm also doing it to find the scum and win the game.

[FourTrouble]

I don't understand where we disagree or where the misunderstanding is happening. Everyone "could" be scum; not everyone is "probably" scum. Town shouldn't lynch randomly; they should lynch "probably" scum. So voting me because I "could" be scum is a problem.

[FourTrouble]

Just because town are uninformed doesn't mean they should vote randomly; they can still analyze tone, behaviors, results, setup, etc. to vote with better than random chances.

[FourTrouble]

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What's the basis of your vote?

[FourTrouble]

I think you are more likely to be scum than the other players who seem like they might get lynched in the next 24 hours, which basically means more likely than Andy or Who.

Can you be more concrete? What specific behaviors make you think Andy/Who are likely town, or me likely scum?

[FourTrouble]

Also, if you had a choice to lynch anyone in the game (not just me, Who, or Andy), who would you lynch and why?

[FourTrouble]

Andrius, I'm no longer voting for you and haven't been for a while. Assuming I'm town, who would you lynch?

[FourTrouble]

Your counerpoint (meta defense, shifting burden of proof to me) I found obnoxious because, even or I guess especially if true, it's adopting an easy-to-play-but-scummy town meta on the grounds that it will simplify your scum game, which I think is a way that the site has changed in the previous year that I dislike, which made me less willing to do work on your behalf to prove you town to me, etc.

I don't play this way to simplify my scum game - my scum game looks very different - and I don't think the way I play as town is scummy - it's just grounded in different principles. If you don't believe me, just look at my scum game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=25648 and http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=25716. From what I can tell, you'll probably think my scum game is more towny than my play here lol...

[FourTrouble]

Pretty much everyone's either against me or is gonna just let me get lynched, so I dunno what to do at this point. I'll join any wagon not my own that's viable.

[FourTrouble]

No. Only games I remember you from I was town.

[FourTrouble]

Maybe. I haven't been mislynched in a long time.

[FourTrouble]

lol Iece, look at your first post from this game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=25667

[FourTrouble]

I wasn't arguing for a no-lynch.

[FourTrouble]

I voted you mostly to sheep andy WHO IS A STRONG TOWNREAD and then you went to vote any wagon that looked like might grow legs that wasn't your own, your reads do not come from a town mindset you cahnge them the second some1 else changes their mind to me it doesn't really look like you are trying to sort the game out. to me the only reason it looks like you are townreading gilga is cos they are townreading YOU which is blatantly survivalistic and points to scum motivation not town.

First, I haven't voted any wagon that's plausible (although at this point, I'm willing to do that). I voted for people I suspected (Andrius, Victor, and Who). Second, trying to survive is town-motivated. Third, your analysis here reeks of confirmation bias.

[FourTrouble]

ABR, why won't you vote for Who?

[FourTrouble]

This Town needs options before deadline. You're not gonna get much information if I'm the only viable lynch, especially after I flip town.

[FourTrouble]

Victor, can you not suspect someone based on PoE?

[FourTrouble]

Right now, Who is the only other option, so if you have a 100% town-tell, this might be the time to explain.