Mini 1646: Quil's Smalltown (Game over!)

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/confirm

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/confirm

FUCK YOU JINGLE

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For expediency's sake, and if you'll accept it Quil:

Coroner
Insomniac (If Grib picks Coroner)

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Vote: Deasvail

I'm onto you foxy boy
Marquis I asked you how you been don't you dare test me.

Can I test you?

It's a multiple choice test.

If you get it right you'll get something really cool. I promise.

Spoiler: A Test!

Q. What is your alignment in this game?

A. Town
B. Mafia
C. Third Party
D. Squirrels

Good luck!

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I'm gone until monday.

But based solely off of role selection?

VOTE: farside

What up now?

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I'm gone until monday.

But based solely off of role selection?

VOTE: farside

What up now?

You're saying farside is scum based on role selection? Wtf would scum want that role? It is of no use to them.

Really now? Dodging the NK, and extra kill if you get shot by the other team, and that particular reaction is "no use"? Fascinating.

The highest utility roles to scum are, in order:

Gentleman Thief
Ascetic
Encryptor
Vanillaizer
Roleblocker
Universal Backup
Invictus
Bulletproof

Of particular interest to the SK are bulletproof, ascetic and Thief.

The bodyguard is the only role that neither mafia or SK have any interest in picking, as the role should die fairly soon either way. By the same function, Cop and Archivist are far too likely to be killed to be of any use to scum. Those three players, Reck, Boo, and Shii, can now be treated as functional IC's.

Bulletproof and Thief should move every night, so as to keep scum on their toes. No one should claim anything relevant to that change until the day before LYLO. That way, scum cannot know if a failed kill was due to a BP or a RB unless they have one of them. Cop should claim on D2, and they should target a high utility role that is not already functionally an IC. Vanillaizer is basically a scumclaim, but given the fact that it was not a choice that was made, that's a whole other bag of null. Flubbs, if you get lynched you should vanilla-ize only off of that list, preferably encryptor if Marquis is still alive as that has no town utility.

I've looked a bit at the setup, and the only thing I can say for sure is that no one should target Reck night 1 with the exception of Boo. Boo should totally be protected. All other actions are best undirected, although if the RB targets Boo, Reck, the bodyguard or the BP, they're probably scum.

@Quill: will the BG be told whether or not their action succeeded?

Oh, and also, farside is probably town as of 132.

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I typed that 3 hours ago, btw. Sorry about the wait.

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Jingle, this is just theory-based and so feel free to ignore, but I disagree with the gentleman thief being particularly useful for scum since uses are announced in the game thread. On that note, I'm also unsure of how beneficial it would be for it to constantly change hands, because of the transparency of such an action. I will refrain from expressing my opinion on the BP for obvious reasons. I also disagree about the Archivist/Cop roles being that unlikely for scum, especially the cop, since looking at the role PMs the serial killer should show up as innocent to the cop, so why would serial killer kill a cop? Archivist is arguable, but Bookitty seems town so far so I don't care so much about that right now. I also don't get why you're telling scum what not to do?

I missed the SK being cop immune bit (and I kinda wish you hadn't mentioned it), so reck is not as town as he was, but he's still nowhere near on the table D1 by role. I also missed the Gentleman being public, that's my bad as well and so not as important to be used. Archivist on the other hand is almost certainly town. He watches Reck tonight, and if reck dies we lynch scum. If not we have a confirmed not-group-scum player, which may be confirmed town at some point, or a scumlynch.

With that said, Thief is totally high scum value because not only is it a rolethief, but a rolethief that also roleblocks most actions. And I'm pushing scum towards certain behaviors because recognizing the optimal play for scum allows us to play around it and force scum into certain patterns which we can then use to find them. If we can anticipate and manipulate scumplans for our benefit, then we have a good chance at cracking the setup. specifically, I'm pushing scum away from successfully killing our investigative roles before they get a shot off.

I have more theory work to put in, but I think we should leave it here for now. I'm gonna work on an optimal play for town and scum later in the day phase and try to figure out what should happen action wise.

I've thought about it some more and roleblocker actually kind of sucks for scum, because you don't have the freedom that would come with being an anonymous roleblocker. So, Aronis could very well have realised that while roleblocker is normally a lovely scum role, it's not here, which could have prompted the change in decision. I don't think this is a reason to think he's scum so much as a reason not to townread him for changing his role, and I'm actually a lot less passionate about Aronis being scum right now than one might expect, but I'm cool with the wagon as it is right now and I'm eager to hear more from Aronis.

Who else are you looking at currently? Why?

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Archivist on the other hand is almost certainly town. He watches Reck tonight, and if reck dies we lynch scum.

That isn't how my role works as I understand it.

You are the Archivist.

This means that along with your voice and your vote, you also possess the following special ability:

>>> Archives: Each Night you may nominate the current or a previous Night phase and a player.
You will be told who, if anyone, the nominated player targeted on the nominated Night phase.

Targeting Reck won't help. I'm essentially a tracker, not a watcher. HOWEVER, the good part is that if we can figure out a group of the most likely suspects, then I get two shots out of that group to see whodunnit; one where I'm basically on my own and one that can be directed by town since scum can't retroactively not be the one doing the kill. Like a do-over if I don't get it right the first time.

Goddammit. I don't know why I lost all sense of reading comprehension this game. I'm going to reread all of the setup shit tonight and hopefully I'll be able to not suck at the thing I'm best at tomorrow. Sorry guys.

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i think the farside wagon is well-intentioned (from boo) but inaccurate

Et to bruta

clarify because either you're using this wrong orrr

In fairness, she's using it wrong regardless. The Latin is in fact "Et tu, Brute?"

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jingle and pine lynches are also good ideas

i'm still totally down for a pine lynch

What's the case on Pine?

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God, I read this entire page and I want to respond to exactly zero of it.

Is there any way to use our roles in a sort of circle of protection, say A watches B who protects C who guards D who tracks E who blocks F and so on, to make it easier to catch the kill?

I'm working on breaking strategies, I'll let you know if one exists. In the meantime, what's your read on Farside/Boo/Aronis? Why are you voting Pine? Who else is worth voting in your opinion?

What good is he, Farside? If he can't be read, can't be investigated and plays like this and can't change and grow and improve, why would we keep him around over literally anyone else? These are serious questions for you.

Serious question for you, boo. Why focus in on a player you won't be able to read to the exclusion of others?

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I'm too tired to deal with this tonight. I'll start playing the game for real tomorrow.

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I considered doing things that are alignment indicative tonight.

But I won't. Sorry.

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jingle, have i told you to go fuck yourself today?

if not, then this is me doing it now

This is me, fucking off.

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So Flubbs is town. Not sure on anyone else yet, although boo and reck get a get out of lynch free card due to role selection, boo more so than reck. I'm gonna stand by the bg is conftown statement, but y'all can ignore the rest of my setup spec. There is no optimal chains for night actions that can't be fucked up royally by scum interaction, so reck and boo should target normally.

Aronis seems to be the wagon of least resistance, which makes me question it's validity. On the other hand, I'm currently voting someone I don't really suspect. And I see absolutely no reason to lynch Pine today, and no one responded to my question about "Why?"

VOTE: Grib

Discuss.

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Okay. I have a selfish reason for wanting to lynch Aronis. I can't investigate him. All my other scumreads (and I'm playing most of those fairly close to the vest for a reason) I have a shot at catching. Not him.

I don't want the day to end yet because I need a lot more interaction with people. Voting Aronis now makes it less likely I choose right tonight.

I'm also considering having everyone who is willing to do so tell me three names they think are the most likely scum and working from that list. In that case, I'll happily lynch Aronis whenever.

What do you think of Grib, Farside?

This isn't a very good idea. The scum is just likely to use whichever member is not on anyone's lists. If I were you I would either target a scumread I wasn't very vocal about or one of the questionable PR's to ensure they are using their action in a protown manner.

To that end, you go last in the claiming night actions tree.

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Bookitty, please vote me or don't. But this on the rope stuff is stupid.

Jake is prob town. Anti might be scum. Slight lean town on Grib.

Why?

aronis so i'm guessing by lack of response that i was right and that line of questioning was just filler and you didn't actually care??? sounds right

aronis jake andddd pine/jingle/idk??

quilford can u pls reorganize the first post playerlist by pick order? it's very confusing atm since i forget some parts match and some don't

Why? I mean, I get the aronis thing a little. But what's your reasoning on Jake, me and pine?

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VOTE: Grib

Discuss.

I think grib is town

I do not. What has he done that makes you think he is town? Alternatively, why should I vote whoever you are voting?

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The scum is just likely to use whichever member is not on anyone's lists.

I was sort of hoping that we'd be more accurate than that. But even that gives me information that can be used effectively, if you think about it.

In which case town will really have their shit together and we probably don't need PR's at all. More importantly though, trackers are high utility in the lategame, not the early game, and pointing you at any specific player only reduces the chances that it will be useful.

I'm both too drunk and too apathetic to make a case on Grib tonight. Maybe tomorrow before work, but I'm getting shitfaced for a buddy's birthday after work, so no promises at all.

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I forgot about this entirely. You guys get at least an hour tomorrow. Sorry about that.

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I had time to devote to this, but I squandered it fruitlessly on stupid things. I apologize.

Tomorrow, I will post. I promise this to myself.

I am going to read the thread tonight and if I'm not satisfied lynching vi then I'll unvote. From the little I've seen I'm fine with it though.

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Hey, BB.

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Grib still makes me feel all conflicted after looking through his ISO again. 34, 140 and 174 all have things that I find town, but other posts feel pretty scummy, so I'm pretty eager to see what a replacement does with the slot.

I lied a little.

How exactly is active lurking town to you, DV?

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<insert comment pimping out new scummie for credibility>

Nobody listens to people who win Game of the Year, you whore.

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Viktor Zsaaz, or whatever his name is was killed by the SK.

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Also, Shii is basically conftown given that DV corroborates the vest claim. The only other option would be a scumteam of me/DV/Shii, but even I don't have balls big enough to try that.

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Oh. Hey, missed the Vic flip. Guess my claim was useless.

DV can be town for the moment. He's possibly the SK, but mafia giving the BP to bg and shooting it or the most likely bg target is pretty dumb, imo.

I remember boo being town, and DV being scum, so maybe SK? But if so, why ditch the vest when he could have held it and not raised suspicion? Definitely backburnered, possibly hardtownread, but I haven't decided yet. I remember thinking a big fat maybe on farside, and I don't remember thoughts on anyone else.

I need to go through and check everything that's happened since daystart. I also need to read through Vicky's ISO for clues, although I doubt there's much.

So much to do, so little time.

Also, to whoever suggested tracking the dead scum... Wow. GT roleblock is actually pretty reasonable, and even if Victor attempted the NK it doesn't give us new information. Kitty tracking someone else tonight has a higher EV, especially given that tracker utility increases as days go by. Tracking vic is a waste of time, and at worst a misdirection of the PRs.

I need to do a couple things then sleep, but I should actually read something tomorrow.

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Reck can still be scum you scumfucks. If reck is scum they're ducking obv gonna shoot shii. Your argument is dumb.

This is true.

Someone asked why I thought boo was town. 1. Her role choice. 2. She actually appears to be trying to sort the game, and is a much needed sense of reason. 3. She's if anything too quick to clear players and that's usually not something I expect from scum. 4. The case against her was garbage.

Ok, thoughts.

Boo, why exactly do you want to track last night and not tonight? I think that is a very poor choice.

SK hunting is at the moment a waste of time. The SK is threatening to scum because he needs to shoot one more to satisfy his wincon, and hopefully he can eat a bullet to stop a kill. Groupscum is the more imminent threat.

Not on the table for lynching, ever, period.

BBmolla rep, the Gentleman Thief
Bookitty, the Archivist
Shiidaji, the Bodyguard *

Not on the table for lynching today.

xRECKONERx, the One-Shot Cop- I'd lynch him. Tomorrow.

Good Policy lynches
Aronis, the Ascetic- My preference today
Flubbernugget, the Vengeful Vanilliser- We could lynch him and make him vanilla-ize Marquis if he's town, but honestly I'm not feeling it. I thought I remembered town tells, so not likely to be on my docket.
Marquis, the Encryptor- I don't really want to lynch Marquis. I think maybe SK here, but probably not groupscum.

DeasVail, the Bulletproof- He's been really town about the whole situation. Not today, although I need to remember what made me worry in the first place.
farside22, the Invictus- No strong feelings either way.
Antihero, the Insomniac former Universal Backup- Ditto.
Jingle, the Coroner- Town, confirmed not SK, not a good lynch.

I can expound on theory points for the above if necessary.

I'll do a tracker theory post tomorrow.

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A few reasons.

I chose you to target last night. I know that you didn't go anywhere last night. So that narrows down the potential targets by one for that night. The other actions claimed for last night narrows down the pool significantly.

I want town to help me figure out who to target. That can't happen if I do an investigation for tonight, for obvious reasons. If I investigate last night again, though, we can discuss and decide it to our heart's content and we can potentially derive better reads on people based on their reactions to various proposed investigations.

This is technically true. But more importantly, it's not the correct play.

The thing is, if scum is competent in the slightest (and Aronis is scum), then they had Aronis make the kill, because he's basically a ninja. We lynch Aronis today, and the scum have to choose someone who can be tracked in order to make the kill.

Further, tonight there are 10 people alive. Two of those ten people (presumably) will be making nightkills. If there's a scumlynch, you actually start giving clears. Otherwise, you dodge the chance that the kill was performed by someone who is already dead. Investigating last night doesn't have a benefit.

I hope you investigate tonight based on your reads. I feel that it will be much more useful. Otherwise, my preferred investigation for last night is Marquis.

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Also,

VOTE: Aronis

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@Aronis: I don't really think it's a policy lynch.

In fairness, my reasoning for it mostly is.

I don't have a read one way or the other on Aronis, but I still want to lynch him based on role interactions. That's definition policy lynch.

Aronis, as town, convince me to lynch someone else. As scum, probably the same thing.

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Oh but if Aronis is scum, definitely check tonight Bookitty. That would be much better imo.

My vote is that you always investigate the night after the most recent scum flip, because that cuts the chance that the night has no useful track results remaining to 0.

I really need to get my head into this game. Sorry everyone for being so absent. I'm busy as hell this weekend, but I should have time to devote to this on Monday.

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UNVOTE:

I don't plan to sleep tonight, so I should get back to this. I do have some thoughts to dump into the game. I'm pretty sure. Unless I pass out.

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I have decided to go to sleep at some point.

And also,



I have some theory stuff I want to do after breakfast. And Shii wanted to post something, I think. I'll vote again in the morning.

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Hey, so I'm sorry I took so long to get back to this.

Anyway, theory time.

@Mafia- It is beneficial to your wincondition to shoot the SK exactly once. If you know who the SK is, then should one of you be getting lynched, you can out them and virtually guarantee that the lynch the next day is the SK, and not your buddy. The SK has already proven to you that he is going to shoot for you by shooting your partner, so hunting him is definitely in your best interests.

@ SK- You really need to kill mafia here. You cannot fulfill your wincon with two mafia remaining alive, and the longer they live the more likely they are to break your BP and lose you the game.

@ Everyone (but mostly farside)- checking Boo is possibly the dumbest thing I've heard today. She remains the single most threatening role to the SK, and the second most threatening role to the Mafia. Even if she is one alignment or the other, she should almost certainly be nightkilled sooner rather than later. Wasting the cop on her is a huge waste.

VOTE: Aronis

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Not on the table for lynching, ever, period.

BBmolla rep, the Gentleman Thief

He's basically conftown at this point, at least in my eyes.

Bookitty, the Archivist

She's going to die to NK at some point, regardless of her alignment. For now, she can be treated like town.

Shiidaji, the Bodyguard

See Above

Not on the table for lynching today.

xRECKONERx, the One-Shot Cop- I'd lynch him. Tomorrow. Especially if he doesn't use his shot again. Reck, investigate tonight. I mean it.

Good Policy lynches
Aronis, the Ascetic- My preference today
Flubbernugget, the Vengeful Vanilliser- We could lynch him and make him vanilla-ize Marquis if he's town, but honestly I'm not feeling it. I thought I remembered town tells, so not likely to be on my docket.
Marquis, the Encryptor- I don't really want to lynch Marquis. I think maybe SK here, but probably not groupscum.

Other-
DeasVail, the Bulletproof- He's been really town about the whole situation. Not today, although I need to remember what made me worry in the first place.
farside22, the Invictus- No strong feelings either way.
Antihero, the Insomniac former Universal Backup- Ditto.
Jingle, the Coroner- Town, confirmed not SK, not a good lynch.

That is 8 players, including myself, in the lynch pool for this and future days.

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Reck was maf, shii was sk. That's pretty obvious though.

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I'm still prokeeping every fucking action hidden forever and ever.

Anti, claim your kills, because they might help us murder some SK. And the longer we worry about the SK, the more likely your buddy is to escape notice.

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Also

VOTE: Antihero