Pixar Mafia! (#102) Duh-duh-duh-done!

[Fuldu]

/confirm

[Fuldu]

random vote: Fletcher

I can't decide if the "better comedian" bit is just for atmosphere or not. It isn't listed in the front post info about Leonidas, which suggests atmosphere, but comedian could play a role in

Monsters, Inc.

-related activities.

[Fuldu]

Emphasis mine...

Zurg

1) (Universe: Toy Story) The arch-enemy of Buzz Lightyear (1). His toy came equipped with a ball-firing plasma cannon.

He also claimed to be Buzz's father.

2) (Universe: Buzz Lightyear of Star Command) Evil Emperor Zurg is the ruler of Planet Z. His goal is to destroy Star Command and rule the galaxy. Once ruler, he plans to place brain control helmets on everyone, institute the 170-hour work week, and make people live in small rooms with invisible walls and no privacy. He has unleashed many schemes to achieve these goals, including creating the energy vampire NOS-4-A2, stealing matter transporters, creating an army of giant indestructible insects, stealing plans for an intergalactic trash compactor capable of destroying stars, and building Hyper Death Rays. He is constantly foiled by Buzz Lightyear and his team of Space Rangers.

Hardly a day ends without him shouting "Curse you Buzz Lightyear!"

It's not a completely outlandish claim, but the above suggests to me that it isn't all that likely. More than that, do we really believe that as prominent a role as Buzz Lightyear would really be just a potential mason? Plus, last night, in addition to one or two scum, Leonidas was also targeted by Zurg for Buzz testing? That strains believability.

Responding to ZONEACE in particular, even if good/bad were reversed in this game (seems unlikely given our dead Marlin, clearly a good character), it wouldn't make sense to have characters on opposite sides of the fight becoming masons. It doesn't matter which of the two sides you want to root for, Buzz's side or Zurg's side, the suggestion that they're on the same team is tenuous at best.

unvote: Fletcher; vote: the silent speaker

[Fuldu]

Responding to ZONEACE in particular,...

Not that it matters much, but that should have read "Clarifying ZONEACE's point," rather than what it actually says.

[Fuldu]

I don't think Hopper had to kill, I think he was a replacement like a replacement cop, but could choose who he wanted to replace. Last night, he probably chose to replace Marlin would be my guess. To me this says that the alignment of the movie character isn't the important issue here (possibly excepting a SK), but whether they're a Pixar character or not. Ursula isn't Pixar, so she's scum. Hopper is Pixar, so he's good, even though he was an evil Pixar character.

I have to hope that we're down to one mafia and a SK (or possibly two mafia and a stupid, stupid vig) at this point.

[Fuldu]

I agree with Fuldu on the Pixar=Good, Other=Bad.

Just so we don't lose a subtlety I think is important, I want to reiterate the possibility that our other killing individual/group is still Pixar.

[Fuldu]

mathcam asks an important question, though, Werebear. Why did you get a message? Is it an aspect of your role or was it something that just came to you?

[Fuldu]

So, Fletcher, what you're saying is that, despite someone who has claimed to receive information from an outside source suggesting your guilt, not only are you not going to role claim, but you're not going to attempt to defend yourself because we're not going to believe you anyway? I was inclined to think Werebear was making it up until I saw this response.

Plus, because there's a cop and an all-purpose replacement (who, as I said, would likely have chosen doc over cop), you think it's unlikely that there's a cop who has to pass information to another person? Not a completely unreasonable argument, but with two killing groups I'm not convinced that isn't balanced.

A better argument would be that no one received any such message the first night (or, at least, hasn't owned up to it). With only one death Night 1 it seems unlikely the message would have gone to the deceased.

That last bit, and the fact that you have 3 of 5 necessary votes, are the reasons I'm not going to vote you.

[Fuldu]

On the one hand, I question why Fletcher chose to hide last night when the value of being investigated was higher and the likelihood of being targetted comparatively low.

But, since we're pretty much going to let him live on the basis of believing his role-claim (which, regretably, I do), rather than on the word of a cop, at this point, I guess it's in his interest now to hide every night.

Of course, that provides a guilty player with an explanation for why he isn't being killed at night. If you are scum, Fletcher, let me congratulate you on having come up with an excellent claim.

We haven't heard anything from him in a while, so

vote: Flying Dutchman

[Fuldu]

JereIC, can we get a votecount to go with that deadline?

[Fuldu]

PBuG's assertion that FD was likely to kill Werebear is imo irrelevant. It's not the fact that werebear was kiled that incriminates FD, It's the fact that he has the role to prove his note's information was accurate(ish).

You mean Fletcher, not FD, right? Because, at the very least, Werebear's role is still consistent with Fletcher's claim.

I didn't like PBuG's jump to vote so quickly, but I'm not unhappy enough about it to vote him at this point.

[Fuldu]

Two hiders? I don't buy it. And of the two, I'm less comfortable with Fletcher's having been fingered by a cop than with PBuG's quickness to lynch.

vote: Fletcher

[Fuldu]

I'm actually trying to do the math on this, mathcam. I think that if we're confident we have a vig (and not a one-shot vig or something), then we are better off lynching today and having the vig take a shot tonight. It's not a certainty, and I'm still running the numbers, but I think it's a better bet. I'll try to put up something definitive when I have some more time tomorrow.

[Fuldu]

Umm... okay. Any suggestions as to how we could best go about that?

[Fuldu]

I still think the numbers will suggest option 2 is better odds for the town, especially on the off chance of two remaining scum, and would add that with 3 to lynch, the second option is practically a group decision as well.

Lemme see... All numbers assume completely random choices on the part of all players, not reasonable, but the only way I can think to model it, I'm also assuming an initial GGVB distribution, that the vig isn't one-shot, and that the two townies are completely vanilla:

No-lynch/no-vig:
66% -

G

GVB

Assuming equiprobable lynches the next day, there's a 33% of win, 33% of lose, and 33% of VB going into night. How is this usually handled? Do they both end up dead? I'm going to call it a scum win.

33% - GG

V

B

Assuming equiprobable lynches the next day, there's a 33% of win and 66% of lose.

So, unless vig vs. scum isn't an outright scum win, the vig doesn't actually do us any good if we no lynch today, and we have an expected win of 33%.

No-lynch/vig-kill is slightly better, because it gives the vig a 33% chance of pulling out a win tonight, plus the 11% of the time that the vig and scum kill the same player, you've still got situation A above, for another 33% win. Aggregate likelihood of winning, ~37%

Lynch:
25% GG

V

B, which is a 0% win if the lynch actually goes through, but a 66% win if we believe the claim and lynch somebody else. (33% of the lynch being right, plus 50% chance of vig getting scum the other 66% of the time)
50%

G

GVB, which is a 50% chance of a win (and a 25% chance of being left with VB, which, again, I'm going to call a scum win).
25% GGV

B

, 100% win

So, the aggregate with a lynch today followed by a vig kill tonight is 66%, which clearly towers over the other two options. Of course, I don't have any good information on which to base a choice.

[Fuldu]

Well, it's nice to see that strikethrough UBB code doesn't work on this board.

[Fuldu]

I'd point out that Fletcher was actually killed last night, so I don't imagine there's much chance we'll lynch him today. However, it looks like you meant Flying Dutchman. You might want to clarify that/fix your vote. Also, if you're recommending endgame action on blind trust, you might not want to include stupid errors in your post.

[Fuldu]

No, that's not right, shadyforce. We lacked a SK kill last night which, to me, means that if you're telling the truth, mathcam is the SK. I had figured you were a role-blocker, since it was clear one was necessary last night (or a doctor, but one of those had already died), but

you blocked evil, not good

. Either you're lying or mathcam's scum.

[Fuldu]

Screw it. I'm Woody, a vigilante. I shot Fletcher last night. Since he wasn't also hacked to bits, the SK didn't get a chance to kill last night, which means, again, that if you're telling the truth, mathcam is the SK.

Of course, this also means that the two townies have come out before the one or two scum. It further means that I don't think there's any chance we'll get the three votes necessary to lynch.

[Fuldu]

At two kills a night, killing at random was going to make things worse a lot faster. I waited until I had a target I was confident of (note that I was the only one (other than PBuG) voting Fletcher over PBuG the previous day)), although I had considered Fletcher the previous night and, in retrospect, wish I had gone ahead with it. I suggested testing a hider with a vig in a different game (Comedy Mafia on GL) and was roundly shouted down and eventually lynched, so I decided it would be best not to do it here.

In any event, we should get role-claims from the other two players before we go any further.

[Fuldu]

Drat, I was waiting to post to give shady an opportunity to sandwich mathcam, but that won't work now. Please keep trying, by the way, shadyforce. I'm not convinced he's scum, but we ought to at least have that avenue open.

I think blood donor just covered the part of PBuG's role where he dies instead of the person he hides with if they're targeted. JereIC clarified the pro/anti-town status of Hopper and Randall. I'd appreciate it if he'd do the same for PBuG.

shadyforce, you also sandwiched Flying Dutchman yesterday. Is there a reason you didn't block him as well?

I still want role-claims from the other two players. I'm trying to determine if there are reasonable alternate explanations for the fact that I'm the only one that killed last night, other than shadyforce's.

[Fuldu]

shadyforce, I don't have an outstanding vote. FD has one on mathcam and mathcam has a no lynch vote.

Also, I still want to know why you didn't block FD last night when you could have.

Finally, FD, if shadyforce posts, let mathcam post next. We want him to get sandwiched, and we can't do that if you keep interfering.

[Fuldu]

mathcam, what does your role actually do?

[Fuldu]

Yeah, but there are only so many explanations for what happened last night, and the only one I presently have available suggests that you're scum (well, there's the possibility that the SK just chose not to kill, but I don't consider that terribly likely). It's advantageous for the scum to know my role, as well, but I revealed it because there was a bunch of erroneous discussion about how Fletcher was killed by the SK last night. I want to make the best decision about who to shoot tonight and can only do that if I have complete information about what people did and didn't do last night.

[Fuldu]

shadyforce, I'm still looking for an answer to my question of why you didn't block FD last night, given that you had sandwiched him. I'd also love to hear your additional information.

I will reiterate that I am, in fact, Woody and pro-town, and point out that we now have multiple alternate explanations for the lack of a hacking kill last night. Either shadyforce blocked mathcam's kill or someone attacked mathcam and he used his night-save.

[Fuldu]

Well, if the consistency between my actions yesterday, the gunshot wound in Fletcher, and my claimed role aren't enough to convince you that I'm telling the truth, I don't have much more to add to that. I guess there's the fact that my lying about my identity would make PBuG's green alien the only represented character from the

Toy Story

movies. Hardly conclusive, but, I think, suggestive.

I will point out that, before her replacement, Medicated Lain didn't sandwich anyone. Obviously, she stopped participating at some point, but even when she was posting, she never even appears to have tried. I will also point out shadyforce's vote yesterday, in which he lynched PBuG, and then called for a vote count. mathcam, you thought it was suspicious then, doesn't it raise any alarms now?

mathcam, have you asked if your skill was used?

[Fuldu]

I don't buy everything you've said here. In particular, I think suggesting that a sandwich during confirmations, which aren't even part of Day 1, ought to count is spurious, but I'm willing to overlook that. That said, I agree with your analysis of the best plan for today, lynching FD for his weak role claim and dealing with tomorrow if it comes. If shadyforce isn't who he says he is, I can shoot him, and if he is who he says he is, he can prevent me from doing so.

vote: Flying Dutchman

[Fuldu]

Okay, time to clear up one last misconception. I wanted to wait until tomorrow, but I'm beginning to suspect there's no chance I'll be believed. I prevented Fletcher from killing last night. As a quick-draw cowboy, I can outfire any scum and prevent them from making their kill. JereIC specifically refused to tell me whether I can outshoot other players' abilities, so I assume I can't, but there's a small chance I can. Even given that small chance, I still think shooting shadyforce is the best way to verify his role.

I think the suggestion that Woody is the serial killer in Pixar mafia is laughable, but all three of you seem to believe it (well, one of you doesn't, but is doing a good job of pretending). Can we at least establish that I'm definitively not a remaining mafia member? In other words, if we lynch the SK today instead of another non-Disney mafia member, will that clear me?

[Fuldu]

I don't see how I can be proven innocent, except through us lynching the SK today. It's pretty well established that I killed Fletcher last night, and I wouldn't have done that if I were his partner in crime, to say nothing of hacking and shooting being, at least, compatible, whereas deleting and shooting really aren't.

As for shooting shadyforce, I'll admit to being leery about it. Either mathcam or shadyforce prevented the SK kill last night, so one of them is who they say they are. So there's the answer.

unvote: FD; vote: mathcam

If he's scum, I'll leave shady alone tonight; if he's Mike, shady gets shot. You good with that?

[Fuldu]

No, wait, that doesn't work. They can't both be scum, but they can both be good.

unvote: mathcam

[Fuldu]

Oops, forgot to reinstate my vote.

vote: Flying Dutchman

However, if mathcam doesn't get on board with this lynch or provide a compelling reason not to by Monday, the vote will shift to him.

[Fuldu]

Well that puts my mind at ease. I'll remind you, shady, that I shot Fletcher and he was mafia. The SK is dead, and it would be a hell of a mafia strategy to night kill a member of my own team in the hopes of using that fact to survive an endgame.

vote: mathcam

[Fuldu]

Life's full of tough choices, innit?

That made me laugh. Can I investigate someone?

I knew there was importance to Marlin's being a comedian.

[Fuldu]

The other good thing about FD's claim was my reluctance to shoot him the night after he claimed because of my quick draw ability. If I had been a plain vig, I would have shot with no qualms, but because I had concerns I might shoot a hider before he could hide, I didn't. Looking at my actions Night 5, you can see that, even had the claim been true, it wouldn't have been relevant. I couldn't shoot shadyforce, I probably wouldn't have been able to shoot Stinky Pete, either.