Pixar Mafia! (#102) Duh-duh-duh-done!

[shadyforce]

This looks like a cool game. I wish I was in from the start.

Anyway, I've read the thread, but I'm going to read it a few more times and post my opinions.

[shadyforce]

Current Status:

Day has begun with the unfortunate end of Werebear (Randall, a stalker), and Boomer Sooner (Dim, a transporter). Also, everyone give a warm welcome to Shadyforce!

I'm still waiting for my warm welcome .

Anyway, a few brief opinions from reading the thread:

-I agree with the belief that Pixar characters (good or bad) are town (or serial killer), and non-pixar characters are evil.

-I believe the virii are mafia and 'hacker' is the SK, but I'd also like to point out the rather amusing point that hacker can mean both someoen who physically hacks things into pieces, but also one who is skilled at computers and has the ability to access, corrupt and delete files.

-I think some people are dismissing the possibility of 2 mafia and an SK left, far too easily.

-PBuG's assertion that FD was likely to kill Werebear is imo irrelevant. It's not the fact that werebear was kiled that incriminates FD, It's the fact that he has the role to prove his note's information was accurate(ish).

-I think Mathcam is scum.

[shadyforce]

Sorry, yeah, that's who I meant. My mistake.

Ahem.

PBuG's assertion that Fletcher was likely to kill Werebear is imo irrelevant. It's not the fact that werebear was killed that incriminates Fletcher, It's the fact that he has the role to prove his note's information was accurate(ish).

And I'm not sure if it is consistent with Fletcher's claim. Fletcher's claimed power swaps guilty/innocent investigations, but Werebear was

not

a guilty/innocent investigator. He found out who, if anyone, they targeted that night. This obviously won't be a sign of innocence/guilt on their own so I fail to see how hiding in a box will be seen as travelling to someone else's house.

If we impliment the lying=anti-town theorem, it is clear that either Werebear's investigation gave him that much information, OR he did indeed get that note seperate to his investigation. So it is the fact that Werebear's suspicion is not, in my opinion, sufficiently explained by Fletcher's claim, and the follow on conclusion that Fletcher must be lying about his claim, that leads me to believe it is one of these 2 possibilities:

1. Werebear didn't investigate Fletcher but did get a note, and the note's information was inaccurate, thus Fletcher is no more suspicious than he would be without this note.

2. Werebear (either by investigation, or by note) has caught Fletcher in a lie about his claim, leading me to believe he is scum.

I am leaning towards option #1, mainly because the role although very convenient, seems plausible, and that if he is lying, he'll slip up somewhere along the line.

@FD: Yeah, what is it we've missed?

[shadyforce]

Randall was indeed pro-town.

Yeah, I thought it was obvious as well, but I suppose the mods clarification (above) was after he first posted his theory.

Also, I think it unusual how he thinks iot so likely that there are only 2 evil people left as opposed to 3. I think there is every likelihood of 3 mafia and an SK at the start, especially given the abundance of pro-town roles we are seeing.

Cam: could you explain why you find it so unlikely?

[shadyforce]

I'm guessing there's one mafia and one SK left, so with 2 out of 6 evil, we've got to get pretty lucky to win if we don't lynch right today. And no lynch is not at all an option...we'd be left with 4 people tomorrow, probably 2 of them evil...

Seems pretty clear to me.

Anyway, regarding the stalker thing, well I guess it has a kind of scummy ring to it, but at the same time, it did explicitly say what his power was. Still, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

[shadyforce]

From your posts, it's almost as if you want the town to believe there are only 2 evil. It's entirely possible you just intended to express your opinion of there being 2 evil, but it's also possible, you subtly decided to try and get the town to believe there are 2 evil. That is what makes my slightly suspicious of you.

And since, there are (almost certainly) killers on different sides, there is every possibility that they could kill each other, so I don't think the town's chances are as awful as you make them out to be, even with 3 killers.

[shadyforce]

Who blamed you for the 2 deaths?

[shadyforce]

I'm think along the lines of Cam here. It would be far too risky to hide with that role => making it an implausible role => indicating a lie => indicating scum!

I'll

Vote: PBuG

as well.

VOTE:

[shadyforce]

Are you sure? I'm very sorry if it is. I looked back and couldn't see any votes for him in the preview post window, so I assumed yours and mine were the only ones. I also couldn't find a post count, and that's why I'm asking for one.

[shadyforce]

But if I'm right, I can be pretty confirmed innocent, right?

[shadyforce]

I guess the difference is between the likelihood of me, an innocent townie, accidentally lynching someone who could well be mafia, and me, a mafia player, who accidentally cast the lynching vote on a fellow mafia member.

I am by no means cleared, but surely if he turns out to be scum, it's a step in the innocent direction at least.

[shadyforce]

Ok. I'm fairly sure the town will win this game.

[shadyforce]

Yes.

[shadyforce]

We post more often. I want everyone to get active. That's the first step.

[shadyforce]

We lynch today. I'll know who to lynch very shortly. And We'll have 100% chance of winning.

[shadyforce]

I'll tell all very soon. In the mean time, it's very important we keep posting, so if your online, reply to this asap.

[shadyforce]

And with that post, my uber plan falls into place.

[shadyforce]

Ok, if we lynch Fletcher tonight, the town will win.

Vote: Fletcher

It works better if I don't tell you why.

[shadyforce]

Yes, lynch tonight. And following me blindly will win the game for town, and that includes (and there is a chance) if you are town. Can't you trust me just this once? Wait, yeah, you won't lynch yourself. Lol, of course you'd object. Let's hear from the other 2. Cam has been surprisingly quiet. Speak up Cam. Yuo too fuldu. Let's hear what you have to say about this.

And FD, I strongly recommend role claiming, as it will definitely decide your fate tonight.

[shadyforce]

Yeah, I meant the other way about.

*role claims*

I am 'squishy' from Finding Nemo. I am one of those jellyfish thingies, and I am a

role-blocker

!

Yes, I did indeed block Fletcher, and provent that night kill. And given the current situation, I think a role blocker can come in useful.

So we have 2 townies, and 2 killers (most likely both evil). Worst case scenario, to win this game we must kill one evil tonight (P=2/3), block the other evil tonight (P=1/2) and lynch that evil tomorrow (P=1/2). Give or take some bias based on information gathered thus far, this gives us probability of winning at 1/6. Not bad considering (WCS) we have 2 (seperate) evil and 2 townies. A role blocker really makes a difference.

However, I promised you 100% certainty and that you shall get. There is a way to ensure the town will win. That way is to have another confirmed innocent (besides myself). How do we get that, you ask? Well, that comes from the simple fact that

Fletcher wasn't the only person I blocked last night

. And since we still had a kill, that means

the person I blocked is innocent

.

Congratulations, Mathcam, you are now confirmed innocent. Which leaves us Flying Dutchman and Fuldu. We lynch one today, I block the other tonight and then lynch them tomorrow.

Game over. Town wins. No way out for scum.

The reason for me stalling, (it wasn't just for the sake of being cryptic), is that I can only block someone if I (twice) sandwich their posts with mine. I didn't want to announce that until I completed that task, in case they stopped posting to provent me blocking them.

Now that I have sandwiched both Fuldu and Flying Dutchman, and can now block either of them tonight, it is safe to reveal my plan.

So we have a choice of either one to lynch. It doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, bit if indeed one of you are pro-town, then we might as well win with 3 townies left instead of 2, in which case, I urge you to come forward, announce your role and vote for the other guy.

Unvote: Fletcher

So... who wants to role-claim?

[shadyforce]

Fletcher, Hades, mafia, shot

Who killed Fletcher? It sure as hell wasn't himself. It must have been the serial killer.

I blocked evil (Fletcher) AND good (Mathcam) and since the serial killer's kill still happened, Mathcam is NOT the Serial Killer.

[shadyforce]

Well, I must say, if you are scum, you've done a damn good job trying to ruin the plan. I'll have to rethink...

Hang on, that is true. The serial killer kills by being hacked to bits. Are you a one shot vig? How come you never killed before?

[shadyforce]

Mathcam: What do you have to say about all this?

[shadyforce]

Yes, let's see what they have to say. I'm still not believing you fully, but I'm very curious.

[shadyforce]

Please both of you remove your votes. We have much to discuss. I'd still like a claim from Flying Dutchman, and Mathcam. And Mathcam, if you'd be so kind as you voluntarily get sandwiched by 2 of my posts, then I'd appreciate it.

[shadyforce]

Mathcam: I think you really should come out with everyhing, for the simple reason that what we do today decides the game, and unless I'm lynched, the mafia aren't goint to get a kill tonight anyway, and neither are you Fuldu. The game will be decided by lynches, not night kills.

[shadyforce]

Has it been used to your knowledge?

[shadyforce]

Sorry, I missed your message above. I'm a little surprised that your PM says explicitly that you won't get told though.

[shadyforce]

I want to tell everyone, that due to further info that I have not up to now revealed, that role does fit into my most likely description of last night's happenings.

I'd also like to announce the posibility that Woody is our serial killer, and was entitled to a non-hacking kill.

I have to go now to catch a bus, but I'll discuss this further, when I get home in about 6/7 hours. Watch this space.

[shadyforce]

Fuldu: If you look at the confirmations at the very start of the game (posts 7 and 9), you will notice a rather unusual and out of character post from ML sandwiching ID. He was half way there on day 1. His lack of general activity probably prevented him from earning a sting (block). You will see, that as soon as I went into the game, I posted like a mad-man rarely leaving the thread unless I had the last post.

FD: The follow me blindly strat was just to get you to post. I'm not naive enough to think that would EVER work.

Ok. To answer Fuldu's other main question,

yes I did

block Flying Dutchman last night and

I did not

block Fletcher, contrary to what I said earlier. As much as I'd like to claim it was a tactically ingenious plan for extra information on my part, the fact is, I made a simple mistake. You'll recall that I earlier mixed up the 2 of them (posts 181-184).

Anyway, as happens surprisingly often with me, my mistake leads to favourable side effects. (

I pulled a Homer

, if I recall that simpsons episode correctly .) Here is the resultant 2 opportunities this provided for me.

1) FD would claim cop or something like that, and announce a result from last night, not knowing he was blocked tonight. I could then easily show he was lying. He never fell for that trap.

2) Given that I did not block scum last night (in the form of Fletcher anyway.) That means than there must be another reason for no SK or mafia kill last night. I hoped someone would claim doc (which would normally be an unlikely claim) and that I would be able to back that up. Luckily, Mathcam claimed something that sort of fits the description. This was a success to a certain extent.

*****************

(65%)Now, if we are to assume that Fuldu is pro-town, then we have 2 reasonable possibilities:

-(25%)Mathcam is the serial killer, and failed to kill since I blocked him. Flying Dutchman is another mafia player, and the mafia kill was prevented because one was killed and the other blocked.

-(35%)Mathcam is true to his claim, and Fletcher (the 2nd of 2 mafia) tried to kill him and failed because of his role.

-(5%)Other unthough of as yet possibility.

Either way, Flying Dutchman appears scum. This would tie in with what is quite a weak role claim, which certainly doesn't fit in with the game like the other 3 claims do.

****************

(35%)Assuming Fuldu is anti-town:

-Fuldu is the serial killer, who killed Fletcher with a different style of kill than normal. The remaining scum is a toss up between (15%)nobody, (10%)FD and (10%)Mathcam (who loses the compatibility bonus of his role claim).

****************

The percentages are how likely I think each of them situations are. If you want an analysis of what the situation is likely to be assuming I'm lying, then do one yourself. I'm certainly not going to help you .

Now you have everything there is to know about my role. If you guys are hiding anything, then please reveal. Now lets discuss what I've said and figure out our best bet.

However, we must make our mind up today, that is who we lynch today and who we lynch tomorrow, because we will not get any more information tonight.

I'm leaning towards lynching FD today and if necessary, Fuldu tomorrow, but I'm definitely open to being influenced either way.

[shadyforce]

That was the first thing that the mod told me when I got my role, that it is perfectly allowed during confirmations, and pointed to that specific example to demonstrate what I should be aiming to achieve, so yes... it does work.

So if that's the only problem you have (on such a non-essestial thing anyway) then I'm happy enough.

Anyway, I'll hear from FD and Cam before I tag on my vote.

And go ahead... take your best shot!

[shadyforce]

I'm keeping an open mind about all possibilities. Don't slate me for that. And as for shooting me tonight, now that you have revealed the true nature of your role, are you sure you still want to shoot me? What happens if it succeeds? Then it will be just you and the other killer left. That's a small chance that will automatically provent town from winning. That's insane. Don't do it!

Surely the fact that before I heard your full role, I was happy for you to shoot me should be proof enough?

[shadyforce]

There is no way anyone (except myself) can be proven to have the role they have. But proving my role carries an inherent risk of throwing away the game. However, I feel there can be little doubt after I invited Fuldu to try and kill me, that I am confident in my role. Now that he claims he may be able to outshoot me, I obviously have to object, but there was no objection before that.

Most likely, 2 of the 3 of you are scum,. The only combination of you that cannot work, given the information is for Fuldu and Mathcam to be scum. That's why I see no alternative than to lynch Flying Dutchman today.

As for who we follow on to lynch tomorrow (if we have to), well I am having trouble deciding between Fuldu and Cam. It would help if Cam comes and pleads his case a little more.

In the meantime...

Vote: Flying Dutchman

.

[shadyforce]

Agreed. But I'm kinda disoriented now, so one last check of the thread (in a few hours) just in case...

[shadyforce]

Ok, yeah your right. Mathcam is kinda screwed here. But on principle, I don't want to lynch him without giving him a chance to defend himself first.

Mathcam: This better be the best defense of your entire life.

[shadyforce]

Lol, if it works, kudos to you. If not, then it was a REALLY nice way to go out, scaring us and all.

Vote: Mathcam

[shadyforce]

What do you mean, Cam? Even if you're telling the truth, the best you can hope for is a draw? I assume your double vote is a once off, and you can't kill me as long as I can block you. How are you going to avoid being sandwiched (like you have just been now) without lurking which is against the rules?

[shadyforce]

That won't work!

[shadyforce]

Yeah, but you're also forgetting that I have a hefty back-catalogue of 'sandwiches' on you, so it'll be several days before you ever get the chance to try and not be blocked for a kill. I'm sure not only will Jere stop you role-blocking, he may well call the game a draw for so much successive nights without a kill and days without a lynch.

And ALSO, need I remind you that having 2 votes, brings the total number of votes up to 4, meaning that the simple majority is now 3 votes required for a lynch. So Fuldu isn't going to die today anyway, and given the he is indeed a vigilante, all I have to do is NOT block him, and bye bye Cam!

I still think you're bullshitting anyway.

[shadyforce]

EDIT: "... Jere stop you

lurking

"

[shadyforce]

[Aside]Replacement is similar to my "Copy-Cat" role in Mini 85.[/Aside]

Very nice end-game scene Jere! Lol, I was on a rollorcoaster ride there. I almost thought that Woody was going to turn around and kill me then and there, after we got rid of Mathcam, lol. Bloody suspense... hehe it was wonderful.

Thanks for an excellent game Jere! Go town, woohoo! Hard luck scum.