Shaman Mafia [Endgame]

[hitogoroshi]

Let's hold off on confirming anyone until there's a better consensus than just one person confirming.

I think I might be fitting for mother earth but not sure.

Vote: Katsuki

. It needs to be done.

Mod: What happens if a majority is reached before the ritual has all shamans assigned? Can a shaman fill more than one role?

[hitogoroshi]

ogod I'm lost already

What motivated you to write this post?

[hitogoroshi]

Mafia facts:
1. Games are long.
2. Scum are always catchable.
3. Early advantage doesn't change this.
4. Arguing over shit when we should be focusing on mafia gets nowhere.

4 reads as very artificial given that no one was arguing over shit in the slightest.

What early advantage do you suppose you might have just given the scum?

[hitogoroshi]

No idea isn't that exciting.

I have no idea either! But it seems very strange for you to specifically say "early advantage doesn't change this". I have no idea if scum get early advantage being on the ritual. You seem to think so. For you to think so, but dismiss it as not a concern, you surely have some guess as to the sorts of benefits scum might get (but that you're not worried about).

And 4 is because it was going to happen. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it. Better to nip in the bud.

This argument makes a lot more sense when there's anything else to talk about instead. I can agree that intense discussion around the ritual probably won't be that fruitful. But I do think a little is better than none, and saying "Lets stop this SPECULATION and focus on REAL MAFIA" is pretty bizarre when you're not even voting. Why should we nip ANYTHING in the bud when we're on some barren fuckin fields with nary a bud in site?

I don't think you've enabled some crazy mafia power or anything like that, but I do think your stance seems like it was cooked up in a PT beforehand. It's achingly artificial to say "Instead of spitballing on the weird new mechanic, lets hunt scum by NOT VOTING and TALKING ABOUT HOW WE'RE NOT THINKING ABOUT THE NEW MECHANIC"

Unvote, Vote: Espeonage

[hitogoroshi]

If you haven't refreshed your memory, hi, I'm GreyICE, you'll be shooting me tonight, so just relax and pick one of you to throw in front of me, because I've been out for a bit and now I need fresh meat.

I was going to say that being hito has been associated with a fair amount of bullet magnetism recently and it'll be interesting to see who gets it, but it's

definitely

a Yakko/Staeg scumteam so I guess I get to live until N2.

Unvote, Vote: hi im Yakko

Almost tempted to do it in the other order since the worst post is Staegs

You're not doing so yet? Er?

and in general this feels straight out of Abarat II with his scumflail. But these posts are only scummy if he's yakkos scumbuddy so we can do it this way. Plus watching Staeg chainsaw and yakko direct defend should be more fun.

I guess this means there's no real scum impetus for Espes thing but it still feels fake as shit, maybe some third party shenanigans or something.

[hitogoroshi]

Hey Yakko, do you think my vote on you is fair?

[hitogoroshi]

Hey Egg, nothing in my role PM indicates I know anything about the ritual. Do I nominate myself for Father Sky?

Hey Staeg, do you think Egg is bussing Yakko?

[hitogoroshi]

Volunteer: Father Sky

Pulling this question out of Eggs wall to make sure Fate sees it:

Mod: What happens if we lynch someone in the ritual? Will the ritual still happen?

[hitogoroshi]

Okay, so half-witty short posts apparently aren't working, so let's switch tactics.

"how are you doing, my fellow towns? it is I, staeg! And if you didn't think I was town before, well, after this post, you'll be saying 'staeg - he is aligned with the town', let me tell you"

AP you need to have a frank and honest discussion with the Lord about these reads my man

my boring town reads are grey/LLD and egg. my exciting town read is spiffeh.

[hitogoroshi]

my spiffeh townread looked more counterculture and fun before he ninja'd me to cast the correct vote.

nacho that post had better be an elaborate breadcrumb because it's a bad mafia post. why no vote? and more importantly, why are you engaging with AP and I about Yakko and not with grey/lld?

[hitogoroshi]

You thought that post was really bad? I didn't feel too strongly about it either way. He is making some commentary on the mission which is 100% fine for a first post of the game. Hes engaging you and Copper on your scumhunting. What is so bad about it?

sure. but nacho very clearly does care, but in the wrong way.

he has nothing about yakko and nothing to grey/lld about yakko. but he asked me AND you separately what WE think about Yakko. that's what's gross.

p edit: oh but is this meta teaparty or something? sure whatever nacho read deferred I don't have the time to go back and read whatever weird game y'all did.

[hitogoroshi]

LMAO WTF AM I SMOKING
HOW DID I GET DRAGGED INTO A GAME

VOLUNTEER WEED DRUMMER

this is kats realizing they got a town PM isn't it

hey grey/lld is ap's weird, super insistent defense of nacho some next level of yakko defense because an iso refresh reveals much of talk talkage and little of walk walkage

[hitogoroshi]

I'd argue the same of you.
You care about my post, but you failed to pick up on the stances offered between the lines. I questioned your Espeonage perspective and offered my own because I believed that it was more likely that he was town than not. My interaction with UshiromayaAnge about scared-Staeg also was a hint that I was townreading Staeg. My post towards copper may have been a bit too ambiguous to glean that I thought he was scummy, but my questions towards Egg should have implied that town read.

I also don't understand why you ignored my question (it certainly would have answered one of your own): what do you agree with in Grey's push against Staeg/Yakko?

So here's my problem with this.

You are trying to say "Well, Grey and LLD, they are just walking a different Path, and that is fine", but from your perspective, it's not fine - not at all. Not only is your townread power wagoning another townread, but the momentum is largely due to the interactions of a THIRD townread making the first townread think that the other two townreads are scum. I mean wow, what a mess. So your "I am the wise elder and I will accept the vigor of my angry younger siblings" just seems totally phoney baloney. You have one scum read and it's copper, the most milquetoast read you can provide without going for bella/brian. and you're not even voting him! do you want him lynched more than yakko?

I think it's perfectly reasonable that grey/lld have covered what I don't like about yakko and why he's probably scum with staeg. you trying to take that up with me and not them looks an awful dang lot like trying to fight arguments against yakko without directly opposing yourself against grey and lld. e.g

As Seekers of the Way, we are encouraged to work on ourselves before we help others; you cannot lead others down an enlightened path if you yourself are blind. Allow me to pursue the path where my soul guides me; I believe us both pursuing the paths we believe in the most is stronger than compromising at this stage.

"let us pursue our separate paths. you suspect my other town reads of being scum with each other and pilot a successful wagon; I will ignore you and try to get other people off that wagon, even though I'm not actually on another wagon and I clearly just want to get people to not vote for yakko without arguing with you directly".

If you don't like how the day is going as much as you say you don't then show some backbone. This is a responsibility you have as someone who is not currently influencing town votes. I am influencing the votes, so I don't have the same drive to produce a Yakko case - he already has the momentum. So asking AP and I to provide motivation gives me the heebie jeebies. It's not the best way to understand yakko voters (that's grey/lld and you know it), but it's sure as shit the best way to try to chainsaw defend yakko without interacting with grey/lld at all!

Which is why I didn't answer it before. But now I'll do it because I want to see what happens. Putting it in a separate post because when I typed it out it got pretty long.

[hitogoroshi]

Yakkos ISO 2 was the original thing. It was minor: saying "He was thinking about it; now all potentially wasted time" is just weird to say if you're townreading espe AND wanted to "ignore the ritual".

Staeg's "you're not voting yakko" was the real red flag. there's a reason that the theory is the two of them scum together. it was pretty clear he was going for "heh heh...you serious about yakko", instead of agreeing or disagreeing. The spiffeh vote is weird and his entire feigned casual dialogue on p3 reeks of insincerity. Yakko iso 3 has the double problems of "nothing to defend against yet" and "acknowledge my detractors and imply I think they're unwholesome, then vote someone with low political capital for posting filler". He repeatedly posts demanding to know why he's being voted. He has really artificial I-don't-even-care vibes:

Well when you guys decide you wanna explain what atrocities I've committed I'm gonna go play game of dice ciao.

but given that I'm a town read of his, this reads pretty hollow. He accuses grey/lld of "tunneling" and demands a 1v1/insinuates they're scum. then he backs the fuck down from the 1v1 with THIS friggin post:

Hmmmmm I was gonna poke Ushiro-kun again by volunteering for his spot in the ritual. I think thats enough poking from me I wanted to see what would happen, but nothing has happened and in fact people are just reading this as Grey Ice being Grey ice or at least thats what I took from the pidgeons posts UNVOTE: .


I don't feel like voting spiffeh I tried baiting him into voting me, but I was probably being obv about it and nacho hasn't posted yet VOTE: egg for the sheep. I'll see if spiffeh comes back with something nice.

look at that post. that is a post disowning his last two votes, both of which he made in the last twelve hours. scum flailing and throwing all of their shit at the wall just to see what sticks.

And then on the Staeg side his tonal change in iso 18 reads pretty much the same way - "I tried one thing to not get caught and it didn't work instantly, time to totally change gears". He's indicated he doesn't think Egg is busing Yakko, but has decided to just totally stop engaging with the yakko issue at all to just focus on Egg (who's on the yakko wagon what a coincidence). It's totally incongruous with the "half-witty short posts" of like...seven hours ago.

[hitogoroshi]

also LLD, lord knows I appreciate beautiful cleansing fire on the feet of Katsuki always, but do you really see Katsuki getting a scum PM and then thinking "need to share this glory with a hydra partner"

I bet Katsuki is town.

[hitogoroshi]

I agree with you that Staeg's post was worse. However, I don't agree with you that Staeg can only be scum if he's buddies with Yakko. As if scum have never chainsawed town before.

Sure. But I think his totally affected cheekiness about it (Go, vote Yakko, see what I care) on page 3 doesn't make sense if Yakko is town and he's scum.

[hitogoroshi]

@Egg
2-3 days before the deadline is what I'd consider optimal.

For the record this is an objectively bad way to approach mafia but that's getting md in the game problems and not anything alignment indicative. Saying you'll go for information and then lynch late doesn't really work because the "information" you get from wagons that you aren't willing to follow up on is weak information.

I think your scum read on Yakko only works if Staeg is scum, so you shouldn't care either way. No one's really been defending Yakko (with the exception of Stag who's done a pass poor job of it), and Nacho/Stag have placed their reads on him in such a way that they can flip if need be. AP hadn't even committed a read there. Stag, on the other hand has been townread by all of Nacho, AP, and Spiffeh, a much more productive and telling wagon than Yakko would be.

Your heart is in the right place with this (and yes, the theory collapses in either direction if one is town), but the very fact that the reads are so non-committal on Yakko is what makes this interesting. Won't spell it out because I'm still getting value from this, but trust me on this one. Make the wagon L-1 and I bet good things will happen.

@camn, lld, I'm not particularly picking up scum vibes from BS? null slightly town for me!

[hitogoroshi]

grey/lld I re-read bs just for you and I still think bs is townish. I guess I don't like iso 9 but re-reading him I found iso 17 which I apparently missed before and I think is a really good post?

nacho breaking character is a good sign

[hitogoroshi]

Yes, but ask yourself, if it is Copper+BS, then who is number three?

I have no idea? copper is pretty much an empty signal in my brain right now. if it's copper/bs I guess it's someone trying to get us going on yakko/staeg, ideally without letting themselves get too associated. Spiffeh or a lurker? a copper/bs team is not something I've thought about at all though.

on a bit of iso I guess not spiffeh either because copper iso 21 isn't something you say about a scumbuddy you're not voting. so yeah if the lord came from above and told me it was copper and bs for two I would probably roll the dice on bella or espe. You're pretty happy with the way momentum is going if those two are scum and probably just looking to let town eat themselves alive.

[hitogoroshi]

I'm sorry but when I ask for a case on the biggest wagon and effectively get told to go suck a dick, you don't get to be upset at me for defending against the wagon.

You dummies had your chance to actually try and make a case against Yakko but won't because you are lazy or scum.

this is kind of a skeevy post since Yakkos alignment is totally independent of how well we make the case against him. do you think that a lynch on yakko will make him flip scum, or make him flip town? Maybe this is just because I throw less time at mafia now that I'm a corporate shill but it seems to me that "defending the wagons of people you nonetheless think you'd be down to lynch if someone else explained their thoughts more" seems like a really unproductive use of your time!

for the record, my yakko/staeg suspicions can be briefly summarized as: yakko for a total lack of conviction and very quickly about-facing on any policy that doesn't get them instantly read as town. with ISO 22 as the worst offender but plenty of examples out there. yakko has voted for currently everyone on his wagon but is now voting for copper. not a single whiff of a "WHEN I AM SO CRUELLY REMOVED FROM THIS EARTH, READ THIS POST IN MEMORY OF ME" when I'm expecting to see great honking clouds of it.

staeg read is mostly emotional and I am very deliberately not going to say more about it.

hito, me being forced to break characters so my voice could be heard over a symphony off assclownery is the polar opposite of a "good sign"

I mean that the fact you did break character is a good sign because mostly my problem with your posting was that you were really okay with not influencing the town.

[hitogoroshi]

@AP
Do you really need a case for why Yakko could be scum here? His posting is awkward as fuck, he started being conciliatory with Hito. and ignoring the ritual which was weird, then he apparently stated he was out of RVS without having reads, then he flail voted various people for no reason I can understand (Nacho saying there that he has to be both dumb and brilliant to vote Hitogashi boggles my mind), and now he voted me on the off-chance he might live if a counter-wagon forms. Is it possible for him to be town despite this? Sure, I've seen worse, but fuck me if I'm going to say anything of what he did was town indicative in the slightest.

Now back to Staeg, why do you town-read the guy? I am scum-reading him because in the few interactions I've had with him he has shown no indication that his plan is to figure out the alignment of the rest of us, his vote on me is a case in point of his behavior.

did you know you're voting bellaphant

[hitogoroshi]

Nacho's defense of Yakko sits poorly with me. It is done just after Yakko is playing terribly and looks legitimately like scum fucking up and trying to not get lynched at all costs. Which makes Nacho's defense even weirder. Town, most of them, would be happy to let the lynch run through. The fact that he doesn't means it's either a white knight (if yakko is town) or a defense using nacho's reputation to strongarm the lynch off (if yakko is scum).

I think this is good analysis in general but I feel differently in the particular case of Nacho this game. I think Nacho stays with Wise Old Shaman speak if he's scum with Yakko. Defending Yakko for one day is a poor trade if you go down when he goes down. The point is to get heat off of Yakko as much as possible without investing your own credibility in to it, which is exactly what his early posts were doing. So why would you suddenly throw away your ticket to do that when the (eventually inevitable) Yakko flip suddenly looks like it's happening Right The Heck Dang Now? Imagine if you had just swooped in and trollhammered Yakko; what the fuck happens to Nacho after that?

[hitogoroshi]

Hey I have a crackpot theory that I'm gonna share just because I am struggling to add anything else useful!!!

Espy's recent string of posts make me think he and Nacho are a scum team. The way he's trying to link me to a theoretically scum flipped Nacho, and how he votes Nacho over Yakko when he says he'd prefer the latter to be lynched anyway and the former has no chance of being lynched today which looks like distancing...

That would be fun!

I mean I think this is almost certainly wrong but damn y'all spiffeh is so town it hurts

town avengers cast list: camnsuki is thor ua is iron man I'm hulk and spiffeh is just a bemused captain america tryin to understand this crazy modern world

brian is hawkeye being mind controlled by the evil staff to vote bella

AP: because of the million p. edits, who did you mean when you said "because he's scum"

[hitogoroshi]

Can I be Scarlett Johansson?

"I understood that reference" - spiffeh

sorry you are captain america accept your fate

[hitogoroshi]

Is this really a post that I'm reading right now? I'm sorry for wanting anything at all resembling content on the topic of the leading wagon. How ridiculous of me to ask for a case since cases don't make alignments.

"I have read the posts of this person, and I do not agree with your assessment. What is it that is making you have that assessment?" is a fine and good sentiment

"I have read the posts of the person, I think perhaps I will join their wagon, if you were to provide a case" is questionable

"I will not read their posts with the intent of trying to figure out scum, if you want my vote you must provide a case" is danger zone because unless you think I'm guaranteed scum and I'm guaranteed not bussing, me not telling you why I'm voting Yakko doesn't make him more likely town!

so when I see 421 hanging out with 431 it makes me wonder whether this is a first bucket or third bucket sort of thing going on. not that I'm certain you did the danger zone thing but "had your chance" instantly puts my hackles up because it implies you will no longer entertain the idea yakko is scum because we "missed the window to convince you", even though everyone is going to have the same role PMs the whole game

[hitogoroshi]

did you know you're voting bellaphant

What is the point of this when I answered Brian in the thread already? If Nacho is not scum and somehow right about Yakko, then my money is on you.

oh I missed that your response to BS was about the same post

For real though, you vote people who are saying things but saying the wrong things, and you use night power on people not saying anything at all, this is a song as old as time

[hitogoroshi]

Well, it's worth noting that most investigatives are definitive guilties with non-definitive innos, e.g tracker, so the lame duck problem isn't present for them.

I think our difference in opinion is just that I think a vig is very very likely given that this is Fate and this is a closed themed setup with a bunch of doodads on it. But if you don't have that belief, your post makes a lot of sense and I like the thought process.

@Hito
Why did you say something interesting would happen once Yakko was at L-1 and did it happen?

The interesting thing was that the reactions from Yakko, Staeg, Nacho all had the potential to be really meaningful with Yakko at L-1, especially with two lurkers who hadn't expressed an opinion on Yakko and camnsuki calling repeatedly for hammer (which makes quickhammers more likely).

I think Nacho's reaction was really significant and made me a lot more inclined to think he's town. Yakkos earned him a few extra scum points by virtue of disowning his votes yet again and going on Copper. Yakko doubling down on hunting his wagon looking for scum would have done a lot to make me re-consider, but instead he just says "well I think they're all suspicious, but none of them have wagons right now, so I'll sheep you on copper." Staeg hasn't posted since Yakko was L-1 so jurys still out there.

[hitogoroshi]

Hey I have a crackpot theory that I'm gonna share just because I am struggling to add anything else useful!!!

Espy's recent string of posts make me think he and Nacho are a scum team. The way he's trying to link me to a theoretically scum flipped Nacho, and how he votes Nacho over Yakko when he says he'd prefer the latter to be lynched anyway and the former has no chance of being lynched today which looks like distancing...

That would be fun!

I mean I think this is almost certainly wrong but damn y'all spiffeh is so town it hurts

town avengers cast list: camnsuki is thor ua is iron man I'm hulk and spiffeh is just a bemused captain america tryin to understand this crazy modern world

brian is hawkeye being mind controlled by the evil staff to vote bella

AP: because of the million p. edits, who did you mean when you said "because he's scum"

Awww, Hito, you no longer want to work with me. You smelling that I'm in the know?

I mean you are still iron man and an avenger but yeah still not really interested in brian. His next posts will be interesting from a game state perspective so I'll watch for some things, but I still think yakkos emotionless flailing is way more unnerving than anything out of brian.

[hitogoroshi]

Also, this game needs some life.
Can we put Espy or Bella at L- 1 please?
Or Yakko, and we will hammer so fast your head will spin.

I'm pretty surprised to not see Brian Skies on this list. Personally I'm getting quite a few frowny faces about him given that he posted this four days ago:

Because Bella lurking after asking me to play the game is also potentially scummy, because up to now Yakko was getting pressured well enough without my vote and because I am not a fan of early D1 lynches, is there a reason why you are asking me to repeat myself?

I think a scum lynch is a scum lynch and it's not like Bella or Espy have anywhere to go so long as Camntstuki, Slayer of Lurkers, is here.

Following it up with votes on Bella AND Espe. Also his swagger smells a bit affected.

I was originally going to type "I'll flashwagon Brian if you join me" but actually I'm just gonna do it anyway. Yakko is still scum but he ain't going anywhere and this should be more interesting for the moment.

Unvote, Vote: Brian Skies

Yakko, Staeg, why should we lynch copper?

[hitogoroshi]

I'm assuming this is The Hulk throwing a fit because Hawkeye broke one of Bruce Banner's toys.

Not directly, but it does seem strange you're willing to put someone at L-1 and then follow it up with two lurker votes in the span of a few days. If you have this little confidence in any scum reads and just want to end d1 with a policy lynch, it makes less sense you were okay with putting Yakko at L-1 in the first place.

[hitogoroshi]

Why are people acting like the wagon stalling means anything

It doesn't mean anything about Yakkos alignment, I think we're all just bored and want to play our votes a bit to shake things up.

Yakko, friend, I can't do shit to save you if you pay attention to other people more than you pay attention to us

Nacho this isn't your scum PT.

You know, actually, I'm having a hard time finding a different interpretation of that post. Nacho, what compelled you to write that post?

Yes, I was perfectly happy to sheep you because I lacked confidence in my own reads. And while I mostly voted Bella because some of Copper's reads resonated with me, I hardly consider my Espeonage vote to be a lurker vote or a policy lynch as he had healthy posting habits before I started that wagon. Besides, we still need another vote to lynch Yakko, and I have little interest in waiting for him to die while there are other people in this game to sort.

What's your read on Espeonage?

I mean in Signs and Void as town he pulled the exact same act of hardly being around, spamming a few posts in a row, then leaving for another significant interval. I think there's not much of substance out of him yet but I understand his thought process on Nacho<->Yakko being weird so maybe a super mild town read or just straight null? And anyway, it just doesn't feel like a wagon that would hit scum, especially with Bella in the game. Like, if one of Bella/Espe was town and one was scum, I feel like we would only be able to get a majority on the town one, if you see what I mean.

If lurker and policy considerations aren't driving your vote, why do you think he's scum?

This is a general reminder that Staeg is town.

It was. Not because I think the post was super town, but because I expect people to give him shit for it which I don't think is warranted.

So if Staeg's town, but not for that post, then for which post? Because it feels like you have to be pretty rock-solid sure someone is town to preemptively defend their posts. I think camnsuki and UA are

super

town and even I'm not doing that!

[hitogoroshi]

at work no time for full post, but:

Son of a b--. I hate scum replacements.

Ok look people- Egg, I know you wanted to keep a lid on it... but now that Toog has weighed in, too... more than half of the town has mentioned it, and I want a complete database before night falls. Also, I don't think what I am about to ask is alignment-related... but a clean, pre-flip answer may very well help us with figuring out things later.
Also-

EGG

is the one that blew it to begin with, so if it was so secret, he should have kept his mouth shut, so blame him.

QUESTION TO EVERYONE:

If anyone is wondering if they should be in the ritual, they probably shouldn't. Check your Role PM. It should be incredibly obvious.

When you read this, did you know what Egg was talking about? Was it "incredibly obvious"?
Yes/No, only please. I am not trying to glean roles or anything... just yes/no.

Again, half the town has already answered.. which is the only reason I am filling this in.

No.

[hitogoroshi]

I feel like we would only be able to get a majority on the town one, if you see what I mean.

I see why a town lurker would get wagon-ed faster in most cases, but not why a scum lurker could not be lynched?

Since both you and BS asked:

Basically, several people (at least to my memory) have expressed a willingness to lynch Bella -or- Espe. They're sort of bland universals. I don't like when there are lists of people that everyone is ambivalent on and would lynch without a strong priority.

For example, say the entire town was ambivalent on Espe or Bella, and one was town and one was scum. What's our chance of hitting the scum? Gut instinct is 50%, but it's a lot less, since the scum aren't choosing randomly. And it's actually an even greater swing than just the count of scum on one side of the scale, since they influence which one is more popular and most people don't care.

Of course, we're not in this super idealized scenario, but hopefully that gives an idea. When it seems like multiple players are the low-effort choices, I want to force people to commit hard without feeling like they'd just as happily lynch the other - because the presence of scum means that we're more likely to lynch the wrong one.

Brian, your 626 is actually pretty much what I was looking for, but it raises another question. Why not vote for Espe with that stuff in your last paragraph? Why the cheeky "obligatory sheep-vote-seeking post" first and only this (which would do a lot more to grow the Espe wagon) when I keep poking you about it?

[hitogoroshi]

ACCEPTABLE

Well that was fun let's get back to doing the thing now.

Unvote, Vote: hi im Yakko

I think this is L-2.

[hitogoroshi]

The reason for any of it! They seemed absolutely convinced earlier in the game that he was scum so why did they drop it? Does it make sense to you? If so, please feel free to explain how you understand it.

I'm not going to pretend I know their reasons for voting me, because I don't. However, for scum to completely 180 on two reads (Yakko and myself) when their first wagon is almost destined towards a mislynch is a little silly.

Not that I disagree with your conclusion (I think UA is town), but you're not considering that Yakko could be scum at all in your analysis? This logic seems pretty predicated on Yakko being town.

TTH, have you totally caught up in the game in the interim, or are you arguing about the part you HAVE read even though you haven't read everything? It seems sort of strange that you're posting so much about things you think are scummy because you don't understand them, when you have more context waiting for you.

[hitogoroshi]

You're saying you think it's silly UA as scum bails on the Yakko wagon, because it's "almost destined towards a mislynch". But if Yakko is UA's scumbuddy, it's not silly, yeah?

[hitogoroshi]

for the record: if I die and yakko scumflips I want big old raised eyebrows at Staeg. and actually I think TTH is being a bit hammy about the flip I would also look that way on a yakko scumflip.

on a yakko townflip it might actually be Egg for me because his Yakko vote was the most boring and immutable?

also hi Nacho thanks for being town after all.

[hitogoroshi]

even though I disagree with a lot of what he says I think copper is probably town.

my townie brownies are

camnsuki as a lock
ua a little less but still high
gap
copper

spiffeh seemed super town for a while but got a little one-note recently so not quite as sure on him. brian and nacho have weirdly been juggling between pretty town and raising red flags, but as of this moment I'm on the town side for them.

I think TTH is being a bit hammy about the flip I would also look that way on a yakko scumflip.

why for a scumflip and not for a townflip?
i find the way TTH approached the yakko wagon far more indicative of that thing you were accusing me of earlier

I think that TTH's "well there's NO WAY Yakko is flipping scum" just seems like she's trying to have pie on her face so no one questions why they can't see her face through all the pie filling? total gut reaction based on me doing that sometimes as scum, don't actually know if it's TTHs style. in twilight I just kinda say shit as I think it

[hitogoroshi]

I am having extreme difficulty parsing that sentence but twilight chat has and will always be one of the best scumhunting tools in the dang world and I will overshare during twilight like a teen oversharing during twilight

[hitogoroshi]

because thread can get locked at any time you actually don't even do a cursory check that what you're saying makes any dang sense, you just post what's in your heart and sometimes the scum posts what's in their heart and it's scum things and we talk about it and laugh and laugh and laugh

actually reads in particular are a thing I like to post because once I caught scum when I was lynched by changing my reads list for no reason to catch people who "thought I was scum" but cared about my dying breath reads

brian that was a bad post again D:

[hitogoroshi]

saying "it's all a hypothetical but I'll play out this one side you asked for" is fine but the side you HAVEN'T thought about shouldn't be the one where the dude you are voting flips scum!

[hitogoroshi]

I keep NOTHING to myself this is twilight, where shitposts come out of their caves and gain power beyond their wildest dreams

I don't like the post even ignoring the logical content because you start your last three paragraphs with "I'll admit", "I'll also concede", and "I have not once said"

saying "it's all a hypothetical but I'll play out this one side you asked for" is fine but the side you HAVEN'T thought about shouldn't be the one where the dude you are voting flips scum!

The reason I said what I did is because if I'm scum who already knows what he's flipping, then why can't I just make up whatever I think will best suit what I know he'll flip?

.-.

[hitogoroshi]

spiffeh seemed super town for a while but got a little one-note recently so not quite as sure on him.

the Yakko wagon was Good and Just and you did nothing wrong, just that you fell into a track so I stopped really being able to read you. tomorrow will be a whole new chance to show your alignment!

it's just like, imagine hopping on one foot was something townies were better at then scums. then when I saw someone hopping on one foot I'd be like hey, look at that town. but then imagine they hopped on their foot one hundred times. At that point you're clearly just good at hopping on one foot because you practiced so much, and it's not really alignment indicative. that's you and the Yakko wagon. I think you came to it quite naturally but when you were truly resigned your posts just didn't see to go out as much as they used to and no longer getting any real signals

[hitogoroshi]

So? You're basing the quality of a post based on semantics which accurately convey my feelings whether you like it or not.

ya but my problem is with your feelings. you don't seem excited at all about this flip!

[hitogoroshi]

What are you talking about? Just because I'm happy about a flip doesn't mean I'm so egotistical to just assume
I'm going to be right.

I'm happy about a flip

are you brian

are you

[hitogoroshi]

Confirm: UshiromiyaAnge

Nah, he was obviously joking there. I mean I'll probably end up voting him but not for that exchange.

Aside from that exchange which started the associative train, I think in general Staeg gave off too much of a feeling of being attacked, since he stated he thought Yakko was town.

Paranoia and trying to view things differently after the Yakko scum flip. Some of the talk in my QT last night softened my stances a little. Hito's push on Nacho irked me before and now we know that Nacho was town. It was Hito, you, and Espeonage that pushed Nacho and I wouldn't be surprised to see a scum in that group. Espeonage pushed Nacho but also supported Yakko as a backup vote. I may also be bitter that Hito isn't seeing the game through my lens.

The push on Nacho was because of how bad his Yakko defense is, so looking for scum on the people who attacked a townie hard defending scum seems...disingenuous.

Heh. This is one of those cases where my head wants to townread Staeg for that statement. I've been wrong about 'longshot' reads like this before so the end result is probably that I'll avoid voting him and half-heartedly support other wagons. I do think that looks town though if I had to guess.

This is a general reminder that Staeg is town.

These posts don't make any sense together. Why are you so hesitant on your Staeg read now when you were confident before?

Also Staeg, pffff. I know Yakko was scum and the loltrain is going to come crashing on staeg. Maybe its right, maybe its not. I'm leaning that latter though.

And again.

And actually I found something overnight I didn't like about AngryPidgeon:

Nacho plz don't be scum.

IDK maybe the koolaid from other people is getting to me. I'm having a hard time writing you off as town, at least relative to other people in the thread.

The koolaid that had the rest of us going on abut Nacho scum was that he did a post that earnestly looked like scumbuddy coaching to Yakko. But AP started suspecting Nacho without suspecting Yakko? And I'm not that sure this makes sense. And also him starting D2 by scumhunting on Nacho's detractors is ell oh fuckin ell given this.

I think it's a Staeg-AP team. It makes sense from all angles. Happy to start with AP while UA and I are both around.

Vote: AngryPidgeon

[hitogoroshi]

Spiffeh, AP is today and Staeg is tomorrow.

Yakko+Staeg as a pairing is totally the child of myself and UA and I was going to power lynch Staeg today, but AP was my choice for third and now I think it's even more likely than Staeg! It doesn't mean that Staeg isn't also super-likely to be scum. Just that AP is the best today.

AP, why on earth is Nacho the one you're appealing to when clearly you were going to lynch him D2

Ritual should probably be sorted out before anyone dies today. I don't feel like Hito is trying to understand AP at all today, which disappoints me because I thought he was the type of person who would at least make the effort. AP + Staeg just seems lazy, and if we MUST explore that pairing, I'd prefer starting with the shinier one that will probably get lynched in the future regardless of what AP flips.

What precisely do you mean by "try to understand"? His Staeg position is totally disingenuous, he's trying to make out Nacho as a martyr even though he was clearly laying groundwork to lynch Nacho on a Yakko flip (and his Nacho position happened BEFORE his willingness to vote Yakko), and now he's self-voting because we're "idiots and clowns" when there are two (2) people on him, one of which he thinks is almost certainty scum. I think I get him pretty well, which is why I want the vote; and I think Yakko<->Staeg is as strong as it ever was and AP<->Staeg also makes a lot of sense.

Why would you say AP+Staeg is lazy? What would be a "non-lazy" position? Is a lazy position less likely to hit scum?

[hitogoroshi]

Ya I was definitely gunning for NAcho today and not TTH or Brian like I had been all day.

Nacho plz don't be scum.

IDK maybe the koolaid from other people is getting to me. I'm having a hard time writing you off as town, at least relative to other people in the thread.

I am starting to scum read nacho a little. He's just less town than other people at this point.

And the koolaid in question (in particular, the point Nacho was responding to that triggered you to post 634) was specifically about Nacho's entreaty to Yakko looking like it was a mispost from a scum QT.

Very strongly suggests "Well, I won't stop this Yakko flip, but at least it looks like Nacho is his scumbuddy and we'll mislynch him tomorrow."

[hitogoroshi]

Oh also don't know if this has happened yet:

Confirm: BrianSkies

To be honest, I think something about Brian's style just triggers my scumdar or something. During the first twilight I was actually thinking I was wrong about Yakko being scum because Brian's reaction seemed like he was already counting the Yakko lynch as a townflip. But his general position in the game feels town (very natural on-off-on on the Yakko wagon) and I think I just need to ignore my gut reactions to his posts.

I don't mind AP being mad as everyone is now doing the same thing they did with Stag the previous day in ignoring what he's saying and jumping on the suspicion train.

Everyone = UA and myself. So from his point of view I am the first townie to be suspicious of him.

AP + Stag is lazy because Stag will probably be pushed for a lynch/lynched tomorrow regardless of AP's alignment.

If we lynch Staeg today and he flips scum, what does that make you think about AP?

[hitogoroshi]

If we lynch Staeg today and he flips scum, what does that make you think about AP?

Probably scum. But I think Stag is town. Please comment on the things I've said about Stag and TTH. My QT was very lonely and only AP bothered to give me any attention.

okay I will go through your D2 ISO, let me know if I miss stuff.

I'm not going to stand in your way of lynching Stag, but I don't think scum makes 602.

link the posts when you make posts like this,

you monster

Okay 602. I mean I just see it as Staeg already being checked out, just joining the biggest non-Yakko wagon (iirc Copper was the biggest non-Yakko wagon back when he joined that). This is another post that gave me another vibe of "whatever I know I'm gonna be attacked tomorrow anyway" even though town-Staeg has no particular reason to believe he'll be attacked D2.

Speaking of TTH, one would think being in the same QT as two people who were on her wagon the previous day would spark some dialogue. Instead, she follows me into the darkness and doesn't even acknowledge either of our existences. I still think Espeonage was trying to set up a Nacho wagon regardless of Yakko's flip yesterday, and TTH hasn't given me any warm and fuzzy feelings. I did think about Nacho's words about her lack of focus yesterday in respect to the Yakko wagon, and the only theory that made sense to me was that she had no focus because she entered the game with no options (with TTH/Copper/Yakko being the only major wagons). If it is TTH/Copper, it would explain why she chose to spend her time pushing UA instead of Copper (one of three scumreads she entered with), who was actually a viable option. I think Copper and TTH were mostly just distancing from each other at the end of yesterday.

I don't think setting up a wagon "regardless of a flip" is a scum indicator when the person whose flip we're checking is scum. Scum-Espy could have just said they're scumbuddies and been done with it.

The rest of it I'm just ambivalent about. I do agree that I don't think scum-TTH busses here (even though Nacho believed that), because being "sure" Yakko flips town sets you up to have low-conviction reads tomorrow. I guess I just think Staeg/AP are a lot more likely to be scum.

I don't consider the Espy wagon a counter-wagon because I mainly started it because I was bored. AP and Stag were both scum reading Espy before I voted him, so them joining doesn't at all surprise me. The reason I struggle seeing Stag being scum is because I can't seem him being scum with TTH (although it's possible we failed the ritual because it wasn't all Shaman). Stag dropping his push on Copper to vote Espy after going on about how no one was interested in what he had to say, wanting a wagon he believed in instead of one he didn't understand, and stating a confident scumread on Espy that I agreed with felt genuine to me.

I think you're getting overly rosy memories of what Staeg's "copper push" actually was. Here's every post Staeg made while voting Copper, plus the post where he stopped voting for him:

Spoiler: Staeg on Copper

unvote
vote: copper

you hold on, though, Egg

If this were a newbie I'd call Yakko a false positive.

How does him being out of a newbie impact this judgement?

Ok.

VOTE: Yakko

Hello friends I am now here what is this? Did hito's argument convince you so much that you're willing to go against your beliefs of not lynching this early?



No changes on the Yakko front - dude's still trying his best (or trying everything in a row that one can think of; the latter, actually).



Re-read a bit and came to the conclusion that I don't like Espy's early posts (turns out I had asked a question of him, but that not being answered is only in line with expectations), 485 is questionable and I can't see relatability in his analysis of spiffeh's thought process (spiffeh has done the mentioned things far more than just wrt nacho, spiffeh's 488 is on point) and 486 is terrible as it does nothing but come up with excuses for both possible Yakko flips from the presumption that nacho is scum.

I would also vote Yakko but I'm not a fan of lynching early, so that should answer the Ushiro vs Yakko question.

Because Bella lurking after asking me to play the game is also potentially scummy, because up to now Yakko was getting pressured well enough without my vote and because I am not a fan of early D1 lynches, is there a reason why you are asking me to repeat myself?

From here I get the impression that the problem isn't that the Yakko case is not convincing, but rather that you are not comfortable with lynching this early. Is this impression wrong?

If I knew Yakko got a scum PM, I'd be fine lynching him 30 seconds into the day, since I don't, lynching early without huge conviction is a gamble I don't like to take. In particular all the early pressure coming to bear on him without much of an argument against his lynch made me wonder if scum was behind the push as well, if Yakko is town this is a fine wagon for scum to join, but if they are I don't see it and I would need a flip to re-evaluate anyway.

The alternative play would be to go ham on Bella and try to build her lynch up, which also carries it's risks. I know that Bella prefers scum, so while I can see lurking a bit as a possible strat. if she doesn't want to interact with players (maybe she has a history with Spiffeh?) her continuing to avoid the thread could also mean she got a town PM and decided to focus elsewhere because of time issues or whatnot, if I manage to get some people on board and it turns out this is the case I would have much rather had a Yakko flip.

I... apologize, but this does not appear to have in any way refuted what I asked. You previously stated that early lynches are bad, and that's the reason why you're not joining the yakko wagon, since otherwise he is scum.
Your answer, in this post, tells me that the yakko wagon might have been scum driven (although I believe this is the first time you mention this?), but a flip is the excellent remedy to all problems! Then you offer an alternative which still in no way addresses the contradiction that I pointed out in 526.

Yakko, Staeg, why should we lynch copper?

No reason actually

unvote
vote: Espy

wagons yay

A little bit of weak semantics and then nothing. He hadn't posted for >72 hours when I tried to get him to engage with his Copper vote, at which point he instead cheerfully disowned it to go vote for the biggest non-Yakko wagon. Doesn't feel that genuine to me.

[hitogoroshi]

Volunteer Water

VOTE: Staeg

Why are you voting for Staeg over TTH?

[hitogoroshi]

hmm, I'm actually sort of conflicted here.

APs reads are Yakko 2.0 where he just tries new positions at breakneck speed to be popular. In particular it's really strange that he would switch to Staeg after reading Toogs summary of Nacho's words, given that previously he had Staeg as townish and TTH as scummier, and Nacho's reads were "I think TTH and Spiffeh are the likely scum, but look at Staeg as well because those damn fine ballers who caught Yakko were convinced it was Yakko + Staeg". AP clearly is not putting stock in UA/my reads, so Nacho's input should have only made the TTH/Staeg gap wider, instead of smaller. Feels false, but not sure if that makes Staeg more or less likely scum - does it make more sense as AP blowing smoke in the hopes that they don't look like scumbuddies (which would sort of explain the self-vote when I posted saying I had that theory, I guess); or is AP scum without Staeg on the team, trying to re-orient himself to secure that mislynch?

Which normally makes me perfectly happy to stay the course. but starting with Staeg has some merits too, in that he's still far too image-conscious and posting posts like this

HEY STAEG. HOW ABOUT POSTING ANYTHING AT ALL THAT LOOKS PROTOWN? DO A LITTLE LEGWORK OR SOMETHING? WHY SHOULDN'T WE LYNCH YOU?

Do you want a readslist or something? More or less every question that I ask appears to disappear into the aether for all the responses they get

And really it's hard to tell whether Staeg town, AP scum or Staeg scum, AP town is more likely.

But actually, unlike UA, I don't particularly think TTH is town either. mostly I just haven't been interested because I think Staeg and AP are quite out there in scum town + I don't think Espe's Nacho posistion was all that unreasonable. But I don't like this new thing of being really sassy about not catching up or having any opinions. It seems really at odds with being super wrong D1 + wanting to get over the sins of your slot. at least personally, being in a slot with a lot of baggage makes me really want to get some early stuff down. Also

I like being the vote parking lot. It's fun.

that posts wants the rope and it wants it so bad.

So basically I want to vote for all the wagons but I only have one vote. I have some followup ideas that should help me sort it, but first I wanted to get my thoughts out so people (especially BS and UA) could read them. Breaking post for readability but next post will have thunderdome rules of engagement

[hitogoroshi]

that posts wants the rope and it wants it so bad.

Does it?

I do think it's more likely than not that scum are coasting by on voting me and if even if I'm wrong about every individual read from here to the end of the game I would bet I'm right about that. Toogeloo's been tunneling on my slot since he replaced in and that read hasn't really gone anywhere since I got here. Brian's had this weird mix of saying that he wants to give me room while not engaging me and just kind of cramming in ridiculous things like accusations of selectively lurking.

I'm also scumreading UA again. I don't like all the "1v1" talk with AP because it feels like empty shouting noise. I get the weird feeling they're read on me is whiteknighting me. A lot of stuff about them just didn't and doesn't feel right. In fact, I think I'll
VOTE: UA

Well, there's probably two scum left. And if UA is one of them, then at least 50% of the scum aren't coasting by on voting you.

THUNDERDOME CHALLANGES

AP: God tells you there's one and exactly one scum in TTH/Staeg. Who's the scum and who's the town?

Staeg: Justify your vote without quoting/hyperlinking to any specific posts.

TTH: Top three townreads and reasons.

[hitogoroshi]

What's your point?

I'm not asking to be sassy or snarky, I'm asking what your point is because I have no idea. I didn't say anything about how much percentage of the scumteam was doing what so I don't know why you felt like you had to say that.

"I do think it's more likely than not that scum are coasting by on voting me and if even if I'm wrong about every individual read from here to the end of the game I would bet I'm right about that" is a pretty strong statement - 'even if my reads are wrong, I'm sure THIS THEORY about this game is right!'

So it's pretty weird to say that and then immediately vote against the theory. If scum are white knighting you then they're not coasting voting you.

[hitogoroshi]

Confirm: Copper

I hate this game, I can't make up my mind.

Also last weekend was an emotional trainwreck for me so I'm not about to attempt to sort this just yet.

What I'm going to do is find some time this week where I feel peaceful to reread everything slowly from the beginning.

In the meantime, don't expect anything super interesting from me.

Rabble rabble look at my fancy excuses.

Maybe I'm just vulnerable to AtE but rereading his recent posts after reading this makes it easier to imagine AP is town. Though I'd also like to see Brian's meta on AP waffling his reads a lot.

Quick and dirty: mixed. Because of my history with him (Copper) I'm naturally paranoid of him because he's a smooth talker but most of the things I could put a name to in my mind day 1 depended on an AP scumread which has since disintegrated.

TTH, what made you change your mind on AP? In my view the Yakko scumflip did a lot to make AP look worse, not better.

Brian, why are you voting yourself for your 1v1 instead of Copper? Also, Copper's probably town.

Egg has been picking up the townie brownies again - for a while he was so bland it was hard to read much in to it.

I think I'm pretty okay just going back to Staeg for now, I don't like him finding TTH's hammer reaction "incredibly contrived" but not posting it when he voted TTH at the start of day 2. He's bemoaning that he's been a non-entity because he can't "successfully interact with anyone", but he doesn't deign to offer his suspicions without me dragging them out of him? It's especially weird because I also didn't like TTH's reaction in Twilight (see my ISO ISO 37) but he didn't bring it up right away to ask me why I was on AP instead of TTH; instead he's just using it to address an incoming question, which definitely seems like the thrust of his focus this game.

Unvote, Vote: Staeg

[hitogoroshi]

And her absence doesn't make me too comfortable.

I kind of can't help when I'm on. It's a little sporadic, but that's how it has to be, so phooey to you.

I don't really like how she was so "positive" that Yakko would flip town, it looks like an attempt to gain towncred.

Yes, I've cared about getting towncred this whole time. Isn't it evident?

Keeping with that,
VOTE: Staeg

let's keep our focus kids this was TTH essentially claiming scum to cash out the Staeg wagon, especially given that UA was her prime suspect and the L-1 vote.

Vote: TellTaleHeart

(I think this is the L-2 vote)

Not sure on the broader implications of TTH being willing to force that trade. Gut check is that Spiffeh is still unlikely to be scum - I think TTH doesn't feel safe taking the 1 for 1 if her scumbuddy is Spiffeh. (But I admit this is partially just me thinking Spiffeh is town and then post-hoc rationalizing it.)

Brian and Copper are both still town.

Egg, Brian, how sure are we that "fox on the drum kit" makes the ritual fail? Assuming we have 2-3 town non-shamans, it does feel like the ritual becomes impossible to complete with five town non-shamans awfully fast.

Spoiler: If you feel like this post is phoned in, please break glass

[hitogoroshi]

A little bit of this:

I don't have strong feelings about anything he's said today. I had a townread on him earlier from some exchange I forgot and I'm definitely townreading him the most of my wagoners right now.

I wouldn't vote him because it would settling for more of a lurker feel-good vote than an accurate vote.

and some of this:

I'm not voting with "the theory" because it's not really a "theory." It's just something I feel in my gut but I don't really know specifically where to look yet but I'm just saying what I think about the general trend as a whole. I don't vote on those.

but mostly just that you followed your then-current suspect's L-1 vote with a speed hammer and that's more than enough, really.

[hitogoroshi]

What I find weirdest is Hito not wanting to be on the ritual yesterday. I feel that as scum a good strategy is to get one and exactly one on the ritual. While town just want to be on the ritual in the right spot. And hito was super not giving a fuck if he was on the ritual.

HITO YOU SCUM BRO?

I'm a power animal and not a shaman. At least circa D2 I found Egg's spec plausible. I'm not sure how much I believe it seeing as it's still five slots on the D3 ritual, though.

[hitogoroshi]

I assume that there is [1-2] scum on the ritual and [0-1] off because it failed. That is concrete.

I do not think this is a particularly safe assumption. If we had succeed in the ritual D1, and the ritual was "If all town, success; else fail" I'm pretty sure the game is literally over for scum. That'd be 7 fuckin innos, neh? I'm sure the ritual has some more twiddly bits to it. "If all town and no animals, success; else fail" sounded right D2 but the numbers today are pretty awkward if Egg is town (3 non shamans + 3 scum = we need 5 of the 7 shamans alive to complete the ritual d3? And that's assuming everyone else is a shaman). If Egg is scum I guess 5 of 8 isn't insane, but why would Egg scum bring out that kind of spec if it was true, since it's encouraging him not to be on the ritual? Unless scum have an incentive to not be on the ritual I guess.

To be totally honest, looking at my role PM, it seems Fate is really into the flavor on this one and so I'm not putting much stock into anything ritual related. My PM encourages me to do reading on the Goddess related to my power animal, and it's not even a very obvious connection, so it seems like a pretty big hint that this flavor driven more than mechanically driven.

I think Spiffeh is town because his D1 play was hypermobile with vote before landing and sticking on scum, which is a good pattern. D2 was more questionable but it did seem like he really believed Staeg would flip scum, which I also believed, so maybe I'm biased. I don't like him not voting today but posting a lot, I guess. Also TTH is scum and TTH/Spiffeh is a bonkers scumteam.

Also, on the subject of TTH - has anyone

besides

TTH ever had two QT links in one night? I actually think one-QT-per-night might be a global rule for secret Hito reasons.

[hitogoroshi]

Hito, while I want to know more about the two QT thing and I think TTH is scum, I don't think the 2 QTs are a good reason to scum read her. The lack of interest in those QTs might be though.

I just think the game might be designed such that you only ever get 1 QT, for a role-specific reason.

It's not that I directly think being in 2 QTs is scummy. I just suspect it might not be possible, in which case TTH would be lying.

[hitogoroshi]

Is your claim that there should only be 1 unique thread link strong enough for you to suspect Egg and TTH?

Nope. It's just the most plausible explanation for something that's as-of-yet undetermined.

Also just wondered if this means Hito and I can't both be town. But I dunno if I want to vote him just based on a mechanic we don't know much about. That's why I'm asking for help before just jumping on the ritual, or now even voting Hito.

I mean, I'm the one who figured out the numbers are off in the first place, but I don't think that the chaining of a.) the ritual is intended for all town to be on it to succeed, with the slot not mattering b.) the presence of a power animal makes the ritual fail, c.) the numbers are such that the D3 ritual is 'possible' with one scum dead and one power animal dead is all that secure. Especially because this idea of the ritual being binomial "succeed if all town non-shamans, else fail" means that the game is over D1 if the ritual succeeds. That doesn't sound very fun!

I guess while we're suspecting each other on setup speculation, it's actually sort of weird that you're a power animal who can journey?

[hitogoroshi]

TTH, how exactly does your role interact with the lower/middle/upper mechanic? When do you get your result?

[hitogoroshi]

That makes me sad but I guess do what you feel like you have to. I still feel like UA is scum, and them fading into the background after Day 1 reinforces that but I don't have any hope of anybody listening to me today.

Also, I don't like TTH saying deadline is the reason she felt compelled to claim given that she posted this already.

[hitogoroshi]

What connection does what you quoted have with claiming?

If you were resigned to the idea you're being lynched a week ago, why wait until now to claim, or at least soft-claim? How do you have no hope of anyone listening to you if you have a town PR?

Also, how likely is it UA is scum?

[hitogoroshi]

Also I'm re-reading some of the older bits of the thread looking for anything I missed, and I came across this:

QUESTION TO EVERYONE:

In post 75, Egg wrote:
If anyone is wondering if they should be in the ritual, they probably shouldn't. Check your Role PM. It should be incredibly obvious.


When you read this, did you know what Egg was talking about? Was it "incredibly obvious"?
Yes/No, only please. I am not trying to glean roles or anything... just yes/no.

Again, half the town has already answered.. which is the only reason I am filling this in.

AP, you answered no to this one. Did you ever go into more detail as to why you said no that I just missed? If not, could you provide some?

[hitogoroshi]

If you were resigned to the idea you're being lynched a week ago,

When did I say that? I said I didn't think anyone would listen to me about UA being scum. With AP the only one who apparently might agree with me, it looks like that ended up being a pretty accurate assessment.

The post you were responding to was AP saying why he plans to lynch you. Your response was that you're sad but AP should do what he feels he has to. Why not even a soft claim there?

In my opinion, (UA being scum is) a pretty decent chance. It would at least make sense to me that they would hard push their buddy on Day 1 and then coast as conditions are favorable.

I think UA was pretty far from coasting D2 with the hard push on AP. I do agree today they're pretty disengaged.

Correct play is to let TTH have a night to get a result in case she's town. Even if we think she's scum wait until tomorrow

AP, you better not be scum who is buddying me with that town read. I'm too tired to see that shit if you are.

Unvote, Vote Hito

Gogogogogo

Like Brian said, if you want to float the idea of no-lynch putting us on odds, I'll listen. Lynching not-TTH today is equivalent to saying you trust TTH without reservation, since she could just fake a guilty tomorrow on mylo. So it's not correct play to "wait even if you think she's scum" unless we no-lynch.

Why am I scum, Egg? I'm actually pretty okay with scrapping a bit here because it might help wake this thread up. But all you've mentioned so far is your "it must be Egg or Hito" spec, which is clearly shot to hell with the TTH animal claim anyway.

[hitogoroshi]

Y'know, Brian, even if we can get the copper/UA swing votes on TTH, I'm startin' to think I just want the no-lynch anyway.

We give up one town voice if a kill puts us on odds, but we gain a lot, don't we? We start the day with TTH claiming a cop result and we get a lot of time to talk about it. This push on me gets a chance to substantiate. We see the parameters of tomorrows ritual.

I'm also just slightly uncomfortable with UA's play today. I guess what I'm saying is that even though I think TTH is probably scum, if right now UA and Copper did L-1 and hammer my gut reaction would not be joy. Which to me is a great sign that this is the day to cash in the second half of the lynch nacho stole.

That sound about right to you?

[hitogoroshi]

yeah I am feeling it in my heart

Unvote, Vote: No Lynch

Everything TTH is doing makes me think scum, but the broader wagonflow of the day stinks and I can't feel good about a deadline lynch right now, even on TTH

[hitogoroshi]

like straight up, I had pretty strong town reads on Copper and UA coming in to the day, but they literally have not voted today and I don't like that those are the two votes I'd need to ply for the lynch. And I want lots of time to talk to Egg because it should be good regardless of his alignment.

[hitogoroshi]

Especially because I'm gonna be V/LA on the home stretch - I have a comedy competition tomorrow night, and I have to head right from there to Chicago for a full day of work on-site at a customer. So unlikely I can engage much after tomorrow morning and I am just not feeling an inertia lynch with how bland today has been.

[hitogoroshi]

Vote: Hito

What's TTH's alignment?

The NL-strategy just shifts the lynch to scum and likely sacks our 1-shot, I asked for the extension to avoid that.

I think I'm missing something here. We're on evens, Copper. We don't lose a lynch by NL-ing. We lost a lynch when Nacho got himself modkilled, but we also gained one extra townie to play with.

I didn't really care about this before because I was pretty happy with a TTH lynch, but circumstances are givin me the heebie jeebies and I think I'm uncertain enough I at least want a result from her.

[hitogoroshi]

If we lynch a townie, TTH comes out with a guilty tomorrow and someone else dies in her place tonight leaving us at 4-2, the only rational play is to sleep again and I would expect everyone here to be able to figure it out, so yes I'd be confident we would make the right choice and I don't see an advantage in sleeping now instead, if anything this gives us less to go on instead in many cases if a comparative scenario were to happen.

What you're missing is that if TTH is town,

• we can get two lynches after her investigation instead of one
  
• the scum make their next night kill without knowing the target of TTH's investigation

Those are the benefits and they make NL today a good deal better than tomorrow. Again, if she's town.

I

also

suspect tomorrow will be a lot better for reads. Partly this is just regression to the mean (today was full of lurk sacks), partly because suddenly everyone who is voting me has to actually engage with their vote, partly because I can assess the truthfulness of TTH's claim better when I hear her result and the exact mechanics of her role. That's a big reason I want to do this even though I think TTH is probably scum; because the lack of engagement today is leaving me uncertain and I think I will be a lot more sure tomorrow. Also because I'm risk adverse and even if it's like a 10% chance TTH is town, wouldn't we feel stupid lynchin' her and she's used her shot? (I am fully aware this line of thought is for suckers, but I'm pretty sure it's part of why I want NL emotionally).

[hitogoroshi]

I don't know if throwing away free mafia games gives people an intense sexual thrill or something but TTH is either town or scum with {spiffeh,UA} assuming 10:3 and in either case hearing her claim is

extremely fucking important

, so maybe hold your goddamn horses for a hot second

I think I might agree with BS today is massclaim day, but order is important here. For now we should just wait on TTH.

TTH, give your target, result, and full explanation of your power in your next post.

Middle world kids, who had verified stars in your QT(s) last night?

Spiffeh, describe precisely how putting someone on the ritual would have worked.

[hitogoroshi]

AP, still waiting on this one:

Also I'm re-reading some of the older bits of the thread looking for anything I missed, and I came across this:

QUESTION TO EVERYONE:

In post 75, Egg wrote:
If anyone is wondering if they should be in the ritual, they probably shouldn't. Check your Role PM. It should be incredibly obvious.


When you read this, did you know what Egg was talking about? Was it "incredibly obvious"?
Yes/No, only please. I am not trying to glean roles or anything... just yes/no.

Again, half the town has already answered.. which is the only reason I am filling this in.

AP, you answered no to this one. Did you ever go into more detail as to why you said no that I just missed? If not, could you provide some?

Egg, how many QTs were you in last night?

[hitogoroshi]

Hito, do you still believe there is a vig in play?

I don't think there's a conventional vig. Small chance of a vig through external shenangians.

TTH is town by the way. We were shot to make the investigation useless.

Yeah, it's almost like it doesn't make sense for all these other folks to take spiffeh's side in the 50/50 without hearing TTH's result huh

[hitogoroshi]

Well, whether massclaim is good depends in part on TTH's claim.

There are a lot of potential interactions that don't make sense, and if we can establish a couple more "at least one is scum" links we might just PoE this game out.

Basically what Brian said, yeah.

[hitogoroshi]

I can't full post until I'm home from work but do not snap to voting UA after TTH posts, I have my reasons

[hitogoroshi]

Aww man, I actually had this theory that Spiffeh / UA was just a legendary crossbus. It explains a lot of the data - if scum have no block and know a cop is incoming, claim it yourself first, lynch your friend, then lynch the cop (!) because "there can't be two cops", and hey, you DID claim first.

I was getting super jazzed about it, but TTH being redirected seems really bizarre for a scumteam who are coming in to the day ready to make this play. So maybe it wasn't right. It just feels absolutely like the kind of gambit GI would pull that involves him claiming Saulus. I still think it's the most likely interpretation if a townie did the redirect (but why would a townie do a redirect).

But for now let me start sorting all of the data in front of me. I think TTH has to be town in most lines that would make sense this (which makes me very sad ).

But actually, hang on, Egg: How did she investigate Ushiro in the Middle World?

[hitogoroshi]

Oh ya TTH could be lying, but that wouldn't factor in to the crossbus scenario in 10:3.

I don't think TTH is lying simply because TTH + Spiffeh and TTH + UA are both kinda strange scumteams.

[hitogoroshi]

Why is TTH + UA strange?

Sometimes scum pretend their scumbuddy is a top scumread without pushing it well, and sometimes scum fakeclaim cop, but the union of the two is pretty strange. I guess it's not quite as weird as I was thinking at first, though, because maybe TTH just panic claimed cop. If the redirect happened in a non-mod confirmed way, I suppose what happened could well have happened with TTH + UA. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Brian, did you get any clue regarding the source of your twilight ability? Does it seem to be the same sort of thing as what Spiffeh is claiming?

[hitogoroshi]

I was getting super jazzed about it, but TTH being redirected seems really bizarre for a scumteam who are coming in to the day ready to make this play.

I don't see why that is particularly weird. You think that having a redirector would make them not do the play at all; they would just redirect and lynch TTH in that case?

Partly that, partly that the cop gets to drop an inno which makes final lylo that much harder.

I think I only crossbus in the first place if I think it's inevitable TTH lands the cop, because my aim is to essentially trade 1:1 saccing the person who's going down anyway. It would be super silly in that scenario to also redirect TTH, because now she gets an inno people will believe after she dies.

UA, is Spiffeh necessarily scum from your POV? His result couldn't be a true one even with your wincon being whatever the hell it is right now?

[hitogoroshi]

I think the discussion might have been lost in the translation between pages.

I actually thought a Spiffeh/UA crossbus was the best theory to explain a lot of what just happened. But now it seems that if Spiffeh and UA are scum, then TTH is town. If TTH is town and TTH was redirected by scum, I think it makes the crossbus significantly less likely.

[hitogoroshi]

Sure. I think if UA is actually this Saulus thing we probably have a win lynching Spiffeh / AP, and in any line where UA is scum they know my power.

I am Bear, a Power Animal

.

In twilight I pick a target. We get a QT together. My PM doesn't mention this, but it also seems to block people from getting other QTs.

It also gives my target protection from all night actions. Additionally, it has some line about answering mysteries and helping my target manifest abilities, but I have no clue what this is or if it's ever done anything.

N1 I picked UA. UA was my second-strongest townread at the time. My STRONGEST townread was camnsuki, but they had this line:

Since the lynch has occurred, you guys can assume whomever is surrounded by drumming sounds tomorrow to be scum.

My assumption reading that was that the drumming ability was a self-watch type thing where everyone who had targeted camnsuki that night would have drumming sounds around them. I was worried that my protection would also stop the drumming from resolving, and it would be a lot better to let camn die but catch another scum.

N2, I picked BS for being a townread who I wanted to talk to. It's hard to remember my exact reason for choosing him but I remember him being frustrated about TTH not talking to him N1 and I wanted to bounce my theories off of him.

N3 I picked Copper, but was blocked. Copper seemed like the most likely person to be killed aside from maybe BS, and I want to target a different person each night in general with a neighborizing ability.

[hitogoroshi]

I'm guessing you were the recipient of the peace pipe?

Actually, it was phrased as being struck by lightning. It was a one-sentence comment though, so I don't know if it was supposed to be explicitly flavored as a lightning strike or just how Fate wanted to mention that I was disabled.

[hitogoroshi]

But if the pipe is something that explicitly tells you "I am the pipe, and I am disabling you", then it wasn't the pipe.

[hitogoroshi]

@Hito
Why did you say you believed it was not possible to have multiple QT's?

Because my ability says it will open a QT with a target, and NOT that it will lock you out of other QTs. But using it seemed to implicitly lock players out of other QTs. So it made me think that maybe there was a behind the scenes "only one QT per night" rule and my role was top of the hierarchy. Probably not counting scum QT but counting all of these form-every-night QTs. BS can actually validate me thinking that at the start of our QT.

I think the discussion might have been lost in the translation between pages.

I actually thought a Spiffeh/UA crossbus was the best theory to explain a lot of what just happened. But now it seems that if Spiffeh and UA are scum, then TTH is town. If TTH is town and TTH was redirected by scum, I think it makes the crossbus significantly less likely.

After I flip town shaman

You're going to be like "yep, my reads are so good, I know Spiffeh is town"?

Dumb or scum?

Whether or not I think you and Spiffeh are crossbussing is obviously totally disjoint from what I do if you actually flip town shaman.

Sure, if you flip town shaman, I auto-lock Spiffeh and second lynch is probably AP. God knows I want AP to be scum just on gut.

Crossbus is something to look in to for the situation where you flip scum. For a while I was actually thinking I'd lynch Spiffeh even if you flipped scum, because crossbus is an excellent theory to explain why you'd lie about being a saulus. But if scum redirected TTH, crossbus loses a lot of credibility since that would be a terrible play. So now I have to figure out who I want on your scumflip, which might be back to TTH, or might be something else. Totally disjoint lines of thought.

[hitogoroshi]

Describe the precise mechanics of your ability.

[hitogoroshi]

You know, even though I really want AP to be scum in my heart of hearts, I think if UA is town it has to be Spiffeh and Egg. Look at Egg's ISO and control-f Spiffeh. Ghost town.

Whereas AP went on a bit of a tear for "don't let that coast until game" on Spiffeh.

[hitogoroshi]

Even if I think the chance they're a Saulus is low percentage, it's still the smart play to talk about it while they're here. Plus I know both LLD and GI decently well and I feel like talking.

It's probably just UA and TTH, but Fate game, man. Wouldn't put a Saulus past him.

[hitogoroshi]

Copper could maybe be UA's scumbuddy, but no way is he Spiffeh's. I still think his totally bonkers theories make him likely town though.

[hitogoroshi]

Oh wait, Egg changed Spiffeh's name to "Spiff" in a lot of quotes and his references to him. His ISO is not as bad as I thought w/r/t Spiffeh.

[hitogoroshi]

I mean, it's not like I could use any of this speculation to accomplish anything if UA flipped scum. I'm just capable of holding two lines of thought in my head simultaneously.

And the line with UA being scum is just about where it has been. You and UA crossbussing makes a lot of sense for the Saulus claim but none for the redirect. TTH isn't necessarily scum if you're telling the truth, but could still be scum for all sorts of other reasons. Don't think it'd be AP with UA.