Mini 1770: College Mafia! (Game Ovah)

[massive]

Pirates didn't go to college Jeanne!

VOTE: Firebringer because I went to college and I'm totally a pirate.

[massive]

Also slightly VLA through Monday. Will check in as I have phone service.

[massive]

I've never understood the site meta of aggressively committing to scumreads early on, it's an easy way for scum to find things to push and townies to confbias themselves into reading the game incorrectly. Nearly every game I play (especially minis) starts with a big wagon on someone who winds up town, with at least one scum taking the easy vote onto the main center of attention.

So I'm slight townlean on SirCakez due to the amount of people pushing on him. I'm not sure I understand what you mean by focusing on perception, I'm trying to figure out if your scumreads are genuine.

What's the criteria here? Why is SirCakez the "early wagon on town" but I wasn't?

[massive]

Well, I'm not gonna lie, I had a lot of quotes and a vote for you, but then a lot of it got covered as I was going through the pages. It was what was left.

[massive]

This really isn't good enough. I have no idea where you stand on what is happening in the thread right now.

I'm reading it all and I'm trying to figure out who I want to work with / who sounds reasonable. It's not quite so cut and dry this game, and it's early going, and I don't have experience with most of these players. It's not like I've played twenty games with Titus and can magically townread her, or throw out "BBT is scum" because we're always opposite alignment.

The difference is with SirCakez we have people making cases on him and pushing him as scum. Aside from BBT's 61 calling you scum, I don't think this was ever the case with your wagon.

I'm aware, I was just curious if you were. In any case, I don't find it a reason to townread SirCakez, so this seems a little easy on your part.

Fire is your massive vote serious now or have you just not bothered to move it?

Is it a good idea to keep WKing me when it didn't work out so well last time?

[massive]

That's why I get suspicious of the early wagons and why I'd rather investigate the voters instead of the voted.

This makes a lot of sense and I like the consistency. I'm interested to hear your thoughts once NH answers your question in 233.

[massive]

Titus: I don't have any issue with him feeling like he can do a better job scumhunting by looking at wagon composition. I especially think SirCakez's wagon could be ideal for that. He clearly doesn't believe SC is scum, so that's consistent. Do you have a specific issue with him looking into that wagon? Do you have a good answer for 233?

[massive]

Welp, I don't know what to say and sound rational.

I will keep my vote where it is. I feel comfortable with it.

So we can assume that this is ... not rational?

[massive]

Would you mind providing your top scum-read so far with reasons? Your vote is currently sitting on a claimed PR and I think everyone would appreciate some more meaningful content from you.

No one's convinced me to move my vote. Certainly not Firebringer with his PR claim two posts after saying no one was ever going to NK him.

[massive]

To put it bluntly: I don't believe you.

[massive]

Not on over the weekend. At least two of you on my wagon know that. Catching up.

[massive]

Man, I'm kinda happy with my wagon too. Two votes are purely self-preservation, one is bandwagoning what is, best I can tell, a neutral read, and BBT is still mistaking "contribution" for actual scumminess. I don't know, maybe GL is even self-preservation at this point. At least I don't have a PR to go claiming, I guess.

Gonna go here:

VOTE: SirCakez who switched from WKing me to voting me (ostensibly) because I didn't move my vote off of Firebringer? OK.

[massive]

What FB says is true Thor.

You said you "could be convinced" on Firebringer. This seems to say either that you aren't, or that something Firebringer has said has convinced you the other way. What was it that Firebringer said that had that much impact?

[massive]

and BBT is still mistaking "contribution" for actual scumminess.

No, I'm reading your lack of contribution as scummy. I'm not sure how you're missing this.

What specifically about MY lack of contribution do you think is alignment-indicative? Why does it only apply to me and not to, say, Jeanne or Aristophanes?

[massive]

Can you tell me why you're not contributing?

Day 1 is always iffy for me. I don't have the early conviction or brass balls to push tiny scum reads, and those seem to be necessary qualities to being hyperactive on Day 1. I always keep up, I post when I have questions that don't get answered, I try and make good townreads. I know my limitations and you always want to push me for trying to minimize them.

[massive]

Tojam backing out his vote in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ...

I actually think that's a way better wagon than Jeanne. Skating under the radar, bouncing votes around, sheeping whatever is the leading wagon.

VOTE: tojam2

I'm not going back to Fire and obviously not doing NH. If you want to try SirCakez I can move back there but I like this.

[massive]

Aren't you conveniently forgetting Firebringer?

[massive]

Well that's an interesting first page. Gonna need a vote count.

[massive]

Jeanne, how do you argue that voting for me is anything but an attempt at self-preservation?

[massive]

Yup Fire and us were hooded.

Do you know who neighborized you? Just yes or no is fine.

Simple. NH says there can only be one VT, and I am that VT. Therefore, you must be scum.

Isn't this counterintuitive to your accusation of NH having no reason to outright believe my VT claim? Aren't you basing this sentence on believing NH's role madness idea without any evidence?

Shaddowez's responses today all suggested someone who knew he wasn't tracked today. First implying I had nothing on him, trying to discredit our result from a place of knowledge. His whole exchange reeks of you have nothing. He doesn't even vote GL when I make it apparent that the most likelihood is that someone is lying.

How does the "there must be a bus driver" factor into this thinking? If Shadow is ascetic, why does he feel the need to concoct a bus driver to explain your result on him?

[massive]

Just for completeness' sake: Shaddowez, why did you pick GL as your neighborize target?

[massive]

It's Monday so I'm back and catching up.

[massive]

So Jeanne is obviously the SK, right?

NH -- if I'm in college there's no way I'm letting my parents know what I'm doing, so I wonder if there's an enabler for your role similar to what kirohha evidently had. That's something that wasn't known yesterday but really hasn't been discussed today.

[massive]

Jeanne, do you think you've done enough in this game to be townread by NH?

[massive]

I'm here, NH, if you want to talk to me.

I keep thinking that the presence of an "enabler" really throws a lot of this certainty behind being roleblocked into some doubt. So while I'm trying to keep it in mind, I think I'll go back and look at Thor's associatives for a bit.

[massive]

Also, on the enabler talk, why are we assuming anyone but Kirrhoa's role was enabled? BBT flipped "BP Enabler" on a certain role, Aero confirmed that Thor's BP was not enabled, and Kirr's was, and there was no hint at anything else being enabled. It's pretty black and white.

Not sure how I missed that. I was reading through thinking about how we were running out of possible people to be an enabler, and about why that person wouldn't have come forward already. Well. Duh.

[massive]

I am intrigued that as I come in and start a hard push on scum the massive wagon disintegrates and the Cake wagon builds.

Thor comes in, WKs my wagon, and pushes STRONG on Firebringer, which leads me to think Firebringer is most likely town. But Thor makes references throughout D1 about SirCakez, about how (for instance, above) Cakez shouldn't be the counterwagon to my D1 wagon, but Firebringer should be.

He has some late interactions with Cakez after that, but it's almost always in context of the Firebringer push. He waffles about Cakez (eventually putting him to scum on par with FB but doing nothing about it), but abandons it at the beginning of D2 to chase Jeanne.

So I guess I go back and reread Cakez's wagon from D1 and then from there.

------

GL:

Why does scum-Aristophanes neighborize scum-NH?

[massive]

Firebringer could be town or non-Thor scum -- but that doesn't make my observations about SirCakez invalid, does it?

[massive]

I don't know, man. So far it feels like all the wagons are based SOLELY on setup speculation and I just can't get behind that. The people on NH+Aristo (so far) haven't given a good answer for why scum-Aristo builds a neighborhood with scum-NH and one other townie. And I feel like NH is putting a lot of faith in Shadowwez's night activities AFTER the fact, but isn't pushing Aristo at all -- despite saying "Aristo / GL are scum," I can't see what in the setup spec makes it more likely that GL is the scum to push. (I would think Aristo in that situation.) And what may be worst is that everyone seems completely OK to let the setup spec do the brunt of the scumhunting, but in the ways that I would totally expect would be reversed.

Where are you leaning?

[massive]

There's an awful lot of "you should be voting Aristo" goin' on, and not a whole lot of actual voting for him.

As a counterpoint, do you think it's likely that there would be two town neighborizers?

I don't, so I guess I'm

VOTE: Aristophanes

[massive]

I'm still at a loss on how we're ignoring the whole "one-NK-N1-jailkeep" guilty. No one was shooting Jeanne N1.

[massive]

Why doesn't it include a plan if they flip third-ball?

[massive]

Why doesn't it include a plan if they flip third-ball?

What would you propose in that situation?

I'm really more curious why it didn't, than what the plan would have been.

[massive]

If Thor's Fire push was a bus, it was one of those metal-spike-loaded ones with a guitar player on top shooting fire out of his guitar.

[massive]

This game is kinda like me in maths class. Like, I understand all the words, and you guys look really confident up at the chalkboard, but man this is getting convoluted.

[massive]

Man I feel kinda bad being told I'm "coasting" and "not doing much" when I'm the only one who presented a reasonable case outside of the role interactions and reliant mostly on interactions with flipped scum. I guess though that I'm easy to discredit.

[massive]

NH can we also talk about your distinct lack of results? What with the Firebringer "weird jailkeep" it makes me wonder if you guys need to re-read your role PM. How many of your blocked nights do you think are due to Fire, and how many to some unknown other RB?

I have no reason to doubt you at this moment (the "gambit" D2 is awful extensive, with unnecessary mod corrections, to risk for just one mislynch) but three nights of "we were blocked" is excessive.

[massive]

Titus needs to get dickslapped by my good pal Occam.

So what is "the easiest answer is the right answer" here?

[massive]

Something that doesn't involve assuming a townie literally lied about their night actions because "he didn't trust me". That's dumb.

But you don't have any idea what it ACTUALLY might be?

[massive]

You say "the easiest solution is the right solution." What is the easiest solution here?

[massive]

Man, I don't know. Looking back at Fire you can see he's clearly suspicious of EVERYONE in his neighborhood. I can see him not going along with the plan N1, but if that WAS the case, why not jail Thor there? He doesn't mention Shadow until D2.

[massive]

If Fire lied about his N1 target and actually targeted Shadowez, why does he vote Shadowez D2? He would know that Shadowez was telling the truth about not going anywhere / being blocked.

[massive]

Still out on the weekend, but will be back tomorrow. No lynch is obvious so it's not like I'm needed to vote anyone.

[massive]

Thor comes in, WKs my wagon, and pushes STRONG on Firebringer, which leads me to think Firebringer is most likely town. But Thor makes references throughout D1 about SirCakez, about how (for instance, above) Cakez shouldn't be the counterwagon to my D1 wagon, but Firebringer should be.

He has some late interactions with Cakez after that, but it's almost always in context of the Firebringer push. He waffles about Cakez (eventually putting him to scum on par with FB but doing nothing about it), but abandons it at the beginning of D2 to chase Jeanne.

This shouldn't have been that hard to find. Is there a reason to push it today? NL should be safe, and gives us another night of NH results or no results which will hopefully bring that more clearly into focus.

[massive]

NH -- N2, did you ever consider tracking GL to confirm your scenario where he was ascetic? Or was it always going to be Fire there?

[massive]

"NH lied about being continuously blocked" is probably the Occam that Nahdia is looking for. So why townread NH instead of follow her own advice? I'm more likely to say "NH town" than "Nahdia town" and I don't think they go together.

[massive]

Massive, What does Nahdia scum gain by townreading us?

This seems pretty obvious to me. Scum-Nahdia means likely Town-NH and that also means she needs to kill you tonight; "attempting" to find town reasons for your theories gives her some "open-mindedness" town cred. But this is a question that necessitates a WIFOM answer (in addition to it being obvious) so why ask it all?

Also, kirroha should be green but I don't see any spot where it might matter. The D2 lynch maybe. I don't do VCA.

[massive]

Are you getting a lot of new information from stretching out the day, Nahdia?

[massive]

Well OK.

VOTE: Nahdia

[massive]

With respect to setup spec, we know scum have a roleblocker and a BP, and that there was a SK.

If that's the case, how on earth do you get to NH-scum? It would seem to me that, if you believe NH-scum, there's no real reason to believe there's a scum-RB.

Also leaning massive for other scum, he's done fuck all all game.

Every time someone says this, I remind them that I put out an associative case between you and Thor, and then they stop talking to me. I guess you keep coming back to this "massive did nothing all game" because really it's all you've got, and you hope I won't just regurgitate it?

[massive]

Cakez: I've quoted it at least once in the game. You've ignored it every time I've brought it up. Why the interest in it now?

[massive]

It was two and a half hours. Let's not go crazy.

I'm probably voting SirCakez. I should have gone through yesterday and re-read him; I'm in an OS class Tues-Thurs so hopefully I can find a spare moment to pull it up and pretend to pay attention to whatever AIX is.

[massive]

Still not quoting the case lol.

Did yesterday. And since I'm "doing fuck-all," going through my ISO and finding the (at least) two times I've mentioned it can't be THAT hard. But please, continue this line.

[massive]

Shaddowez and Fire both claimed to be roleblocked.

Are you paying attention? I can't imagine how you'd forget that if you were trying to solve the game

I didn't forget. I asked "where's the proof?" I'm pretty sure mathematically it's been proven that Fire at least lied about N1, which means that both he and Shaddowez can be explained by Fire's own "results." Or do you think Fire was telling the truth? If you do, why is NH claiming Fire lied just "ridiculous" (1519) and not flat out scummy?

[massive]

Massive - this is your case for Thor being scum with me yeah?
These are all about posts from Thor, nothing from me. What is there for me to defend against here? It's all Thor's posts.

I don't remember asking you to defend against them.

How has it been proven that Fire lied? Walk me through that one.

Despite zefiend thinking that "{RB} blocking fire means nh gets no result" that's definitely NOT the Occam answer -- it's that N2 Fire claimed to have jailed Thor and NH was blocked, so Fire wasn't, and therefore Fire didn't jail Thor (who was killed). (PS have fun at Coachella)

[massive]

I'm still here but not normally online at the weekend. Probably won't have time to re-read anything until Monday.

[massive]

I'm still re-reading. I made it through the first dozen or so pages, but I keep getting busy. My problem is that I feel like I'm going about this the wrong way. The town players aren't really helping. If there's something specific I can comment on, go ahead and put it here.

[massive]

Yeah I do like the massive wagon. His ISO is a great big pile of nothing, as stated earlier.

SirCakez's vote here was pure self-preservation (and a complete switch from WK-ing me to voting me) and he still hasn't come up with anything better.

I do think Cake's vote was bad and showed scum mindset.
I'm voting for Fire over that while expressing only broad meta tells that I'm not explaining.

Thor does this a lot -- agree that SC is somewhat scummy, but continue to push other wagons. I mention it in my initial posts about SC but I wanted to quote a good example of it.

Thor - why would scum!Firebringer claim a PR on D1 at the slightest sign of pressure? What does scum gain from that? He saves himself for a day or two at most.

GL -- you said this about Firebringer but it obviously applies to NH as well. Can you answer your own question?

I've been asking for this wagon for days of course I'll hop on.
vote: Night Hunters

With this vote, SirCakez has been on every active wagon on D1 -- mine, Thor, NH. He also eventually gets on the tojam lynch.

I'll hammer tojam at deadline if nothing has moved but I think that scum is driving this lynch.

I like that Guilty followed up on this on D2 (starting with Aristo). And SirCakez hopped right along with that wagon, too.

... and then the role / result madness starts, so I'm going to post this and then try and wade through it.

[massive]

The town players aren't really helping

Who are you referring to here?

There are 4 days left and I'm getting the sense that you're stalling it out. Do you still think SC is scum? Do you think NH is town?

Mostly everyone. It seems like a lot of our now-proven townies were focused on other now-proven townies, or acting scummy enough that EVERYONE left alive was equally scumreading them.

I do still think SC is scum.

I don't think NH+SC make sense as a team.

I saw very little in the first day that made me think NH wasn't town (the only thing was being the only vocal person against the Thor wagon), which helps settle some nagging feelings. They're the only one who consistently tried to figure out the game from the night actions, which is important, even though I think it's been distracting.

But I know I will have questions when I get to the end of D2 and get through the whole double-neighborizer thing.

[massive]

Who are the "now-proven townies"? Also, you are being very non-committal about NH. If he can't be on a SC-scum team, then do you think the last scum is me or GL?

People who were mysteries on day one who are now dead. That seemed straightforward.

NH / SirCakez D1 interaction isn't scum-scum. NH's Thor position D1 is not scumbuddies.

Both of you were particularly defensive of votes on SirCakez on D1 / against the wagon on SirCakez D1. GL probably had the stronger of the two reactions (see 233 and 276 for examples) but then neither of you seem to give a crap about him until around today. Neither of you have substantial interactions with Thor or back. So I'm still kinda at pick-em in terms of interaction.

[massive]

Man, this is why I will never be in a hydra, haha.

[massive]

A hundred apologies for not finishing this off the last game day. I'm usually off on the weekends but I THOUGHT I was half-paying attention to deadlines, and I thought the deadline was Monday. I would have totally taken blame for the loss but GL pulled it out at the end like a pro.

[massive]

Wait, there was a dead thread?