Mini 1815: Game of Thrones S1E1 GAME OVER

[mhsmith0]

Shadow has been asking a bunch of crappy questions (128, 214, 217, 257, 371), similar to mini 1782 at quick glance. Shadow, can you link your most recent two completed town games? I want to see if this is AI for you or not.

Ps I'm not entirely what to think of shadows question to heartless in 257. It feels like he's trying to sort them, except they're mod confirmed town. It's the kind of sloppiness I tend to associate w town, but I wonder if it's just a sign of forgetting who he's supposed to be reading.

[mhsmith0]

Just read through their iso and

I see zero things wrong with their posting.

That's the issue.

People who try too hard to be perfect are likely scum.

The argument is that shadow is trying harder to make posts that look good (or at least that don't look bad) than he is to make posts that are actually useful. That's scummy behavior.

[mhsmith0]

The tone of the posts plus Im not seeing where these scum reads on them are coming from

What are you seeing that's town indicative in shadows tone?

[mhsmith0]

Re 395: Well, "are you just posting to make yourself look good instead of be useful" is itself a useless question. It's not like you're going to respond with "oh crap you got me".

I'll look at those town games when I have time. May not be today.

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: cakez

could also do frozen angel

Why on each? Other than "they're fighting, must not be tvt"?

Third Wheels is scum.

Why?

[mhsmith0]

They said they are fine lynching two people who are very unlikely to both be scum. They don't care who gets lynched.

Do you see FA/sc as a duo where w/w is much less likely than t/t?

[mhsmith0]

i think all of the options that include mhsmith0 make more sense

Why me over various others who are pushing on shadow?

[mhsmith0]

i think all of the options that include mhsmith0 make more sense

Why me over various others who are pushing on shadow?

bad

His stayed reasoning was that I fit because I was pushing shadow. Given that plenty of people are pushing there, it seems shallow for what is by implication his strongest scum read.

[mhsmith0]

Except for where he used PoE to determine his 4 scumreads and he listed all possibilities with those 4. Others pushing shaddowez have nothing to do with it.

Except none of those PoE town reads have been justified. The closest was bbt as lynchbait, and even there it wasn't clear why he thought it.

[mhsmith0]

question me a townread and i'll answer that

Gorkington for starters. Also curious on kuroi. And for bbt, why lynch bait in particular?

[mhsmith0]

So what? That doesn't change your point is bullshit.

How so? He presents a read on me that boils down to "he's pushing shadow" (plus PoE). Why wouldn't I question that?

[mhsmith0]

question me a townread and i'll answer that

the fact mhsmith0 is questioning my townreads rather than looking at my scumpool is a red flag

Dude you literally offered to explain your town reads, and I took you up on it. Your argument is what exactly? That I fell into your trap?

i think he's also distancing shaddowez (why wouldn't he keep pushing shaddow rather than attack my townreads?)

I attacked your town reads? I recall point out that you hadn't backed them up and asked you to back them up. How is that an attack?

[mhsmith0]

-SW presents a POEd playerlist
-SW speculates on the possible pairings of his 4 POEd scumreads
-You question why he isnt pushing others for pushing shaddoweh: This is awful for two reasons: a)He nowhere said that's why he's scumreading you b)The POEd playerlist should answer why he isnt pushing others for it - he's townreading them.
-I point this out and you change your argument to "he nowhere explained why he's townreading all the others" - you're dodging how your argument was awful here and you're arguing something new.

In the end you just want to defend against the scumread against you but you don't know where it came from so you can't.

1) I missed the PoE post when first questioning him - even if I hadn't though I don't think my original question was awful
2) the PoE post was still unexplained and worth questioning
3) "you don't know where it came from" kinda answers why I'm questioning it

[mhsmith0]

Boom Shaka laka

[mhsmith0]

@heartless: what's driving the strong gork town read? Ditto the strong wisdom scum read?

[mhsmith0]

Because I'm interested in what they have to say (especially anti since I was really impressed by him in the aero upick micro).

Wrt my read of you, I didn't like your rvs, I suspect that your shadow vote was just early distancing (although that depends on shadow being scum and I still want to skim his town games to refine my opinion there), and your hop onto me was pretty awkward. Otoh those aren't super strong things, and there are people who are town reading you so I'd like to know what I'm missing.

[mhsmith0]

i sure hope someone does something scummy.
it might be hard to know who to vote otherwise.
:s

that would be pretty rude.

oh hmm well.
im not sure if i should.
what if she isnt scum?

These all read as awkward to me. Especially given that none if them was an actual RVS vote. Do you normally avoid voting while rvs posting?

[mhsmith0]

No. Well, maybe 12 was. But 10/15 were messing around type posts, but at the same time weren't doing anything (as opposed to the normal rvs "pushing people for bs reasons" bit, which is at least actually doing something).

[mhsmith0]

so, its not awkward, its not productive?

It was awkward. "Messing around" type posts, but the tone of it seemed off. I'm probably bad at explaining this, but it seemed like those posts were "look at how relaxed I am" as opposed to posts that actually WERE relaxed.

17 was another awkward one (this one read as serious). You'll "think on" if FA was scum? What's there to think on in a page 1 rvs wagon?

[mhsmith0]

Otoh those aren't super strong things, and there are people who are town reading you so I'd like to know what I'm missing.

I also figured I'd get around to skimming some of your other games to see if your RVS stuff was common or potentially AI for you, and didn't want to make a point of it before doing so.

And the "you might be distancing shadow" depends on shadow being a wolf, which I wasn't especially sure of either.

And wrt your vote hop, wisdom has already been bugging you about it, and I didn't think it was productive for me to barge in on it just for the sake of doing so (and I was curious why wisdom town read my response anyway so I wanted to see where he went w it).

[mhsmith0]

What's the dwlee case?

[mhsmith0]

Dwlee is up to 4 votes w the case apparently being that he said he's "hormonal af" when talking about his anger. Anything else to it?

[mhsmith0]

It's a crappy situation for sure.

[mhsmith0]

How so? He was vote #2 IIRC.

[mhsmith0]

Except none of those PoE town reads have been justified. The closest was bbt as lynchbait, and even there it wasn't clear why he thought it.

this guy is scum

third wheels should be vigged if we have one

^ scared scum

explain your logic on both of these. The second seems reachy and I have no clue what you think was AI from my post.

[mhsmith0]

mhsmith [post]689[/post is classic scum. Defending himself while trying to throw shade. Its a really, really bad attempt.

This is a guy who in literally every other game I've seen him in has made himself

incredibly obvious

town. Like innocent child level towna fter like two posts. Here, he is awkward and defensive

In fairness, IMO I do tend to make myself pretty obvious town (I'm presuming this is utl btw, I've never played w hiplop and I don't think summer would have that strong of an opinion if my game after that one newbie). Not like after two posts, but it's usually not particularly hard to see after a while. That said...

explain your logic on both of these. The second seems reachy and I have no clue what you think was AI from my post.

this is the worst post in the game so far.

I also don't see what's wrong with this post. Your 678 was a naked "this post is bad" type read on me (and a reachy reaction to sc post), so I asked about it. Your "worst post of the game" but seems like a major over-reaction to this (and I'd note ftr that in your response you didn't bother to explain what you thought was wrong with 476).

Ps what other games of mine have you read? I was w utl/summer in one newbie and I don't think I've been w any if you otherwise (unless alts).

[mhsmith0]

mhsmith, you asked and we both bothered to give our take on Wisdom. Do you have anything to add or did it bore you enough to not want to continue the conversation?

Honestly, I didn't really have anything to add. Partially because I got a bit distracted by TW's "gladiate" bit.

But for one, you're overestimating the strength of my reads right now. I started out having 5 tiers (strong town-weak town-null-weak scum-strong scum) and the two extremes didn't end up getting filled at all so I nixed them. Looking back at the list, I'm not sure if random should be where he is but I'll have to see.

For another, I get the feeling that this Gork thing is just a distraction that Wis is pushing. It came out of nowhere and it was while the shadow wagon had solid backing so I'm not sure why Wisdom would gut the wagon he was ostensibly so sure about to chase this.

The "these are weak reads" bit de-emphasized the strength of them; I'd been under the impression you had strong reads there, so when you said they weren't strong it became a bit less interesting (I'd been leaning town on Wisdom and wolf on Gork at the time). I also started to feel better about Gork after our back and forth (basically back to null for me), so even though that wasn't directly discussed here (though I think it was the anti head who did below?), I wasn't as worried about it.

wrt Wisdom, I guess I can see the case there, but idk. I was also hoping Wisdom would get around to answering Gork's 539, but he hasn't bothered yet, which is bugging me a bit (I'm still curious what drove his read on my from that post - I have a guess but I'd like to see what his reasoning actually was). It's also kinda funny that Wisdom did a naked hop onto the dwlee wagon after you call him out for his Gork hop. I don't know if that was just jumping ship on a bad wagon or what, but the dwlee wagon seems sketchy enough that I'm suspicious of it, and am curious whether anyone actually comes up with a good reason for it at some point or not.

i mean... what's the big idea behind gork being scum anyway? gork schemes up this sooper sweet scum strategy and then proceeds to blurt it out and then blatantly troll about it?

Idk, he's weird

I mean, this is pretty much a non-response by Wisdom on the implied question of why Wisdom was scum-reading Gork. I'm also curious if Wisdom gets around to explaining his process in greater detail on this read as well. And by this point I was feeling better about Gork so I wasn't much interested in delving into Gork specifically.

[mhsmith0]

Smith is hundo percent scum

Scummy dwlee votes me naked for no reason right after I expose this

Sure fucking looking like hes trying to defend. I don't give a fuck if you're IC, I want to lynch scum

I mean...

1) I still don't particularly see the dwlee case (I also don't know dwlee well enough to know if the derp explanation for the quick vote TW cited was legitimate or not, but it at least seems plausible)

2) I don't recall UTL doing anything like "100% scum" in our game together, but it was just one game, and I don't know hiplop at all so idk if this is normal for them or not. Like, there are players who oversell stuff as town, but idk if they're among that list. Why anyone would actually have a strong read for the posts that TW cited (476, 689) is beyond me.

[mhsmith0]

UNVOTE:

Wait. I didn't see how many votes were already on her.

I scared the fuck out of myself. I thought this was a micro game, because Radja does a lot of micro games.

If it was, I would have just killed Frozen Angel.

So wrt kuroi, IMO this incident either basically derp-clears him or is completely fake. Like, does kuroi make these kinds of posts as a wolf? Anyone here familiar w his meta and range when he's a wolf?

PS Notably, wisdom quick-voted kuroi right after this, which implies that wisdom thought it was fake. Wisdom, why did you think this was fake by kuroi?

[mhsmith0]

@gork: thoughts on kuroi's 76/82? You familiar w/ his wolf meta? Does he do this sort of fake dumb tell as wolf?

[mhsmith0]

wait, so you're saying you think he's not capable of it? Or am I misreading you?

[mhsmith0]

You ever see a wolf successfully pull off a "oh crap I forgot how many players were in the game" play?

I guess the flip side is if kuroi realized that his # players estimate was off, he should have just revoted FA based on his thought progression. /ninjad: yep, that's the counter point

But it still seems reasonably likely to be a town-indicative moment, unless there's any evidence that this sort of fake play is within kuroi's wolf range.

[mhsmith0]

Hmm... Well, I guess I'll think on it. I agree that 75 looks off, and I'll look at the other points. OTOH, I just finished a game where kuroi's slot was the D1 lynch, so I'm a bit nervous about him just being lynchbaity. I'll try to compare this one to that one and see if there are any good parallels or not.

[mhsmith0]

But in a 13p setup, the mafia would basically KNOW that there were >9 people, just by way of their role PM. The only way they wouldn't is if it was something like 10/2/1 (with an SK... and the SK would know that it's >9 people since when do you see an SK with 9 or less) or 9/2/2 mulitball where the role PM's didn't bother to make the multiball aspect clear.

So either kuroi is just INCREDIBLY sloppy mafia (who posted while forgetting that he had multiple teammates, presuming a relatively standard 10/3 setup), or there's info withheld or made unclear in his role PM... or it was a legitimately indicative moment, either because he was intentionally faking the derp, or because it actually was a true town derp moment.

And if Kuroi is a player who has never before tried this kind of fake derp moment as mafia, then it just seems likelier that he's just a townie who's being really sloppy in his postings, both in terms of remembering the setup and in terms of everything else (including the stuff about his read progressions). Like, I wouldn't want to bet the game on this, but I'm not especially inclined to want him dead anytime soon either.

[mhsmith0]

OTOH, I just finished a game where kuroi's slot was the D1 lynch, so I'm a bit nervous about him just being lynchbaity.

I really don't want to hear this anymore. From anyone.

I'm not unreasonable. If in the course of a wagon, Kuroi changes my mind and I start townreading him (entirely possible, it happens all the time), then that's what will happen.

If you have reasons that you can articulate for him being town, that's one thing. But saying "he's lynchbait so I'm

not

touching him" just cuts me off at the knees by not letting me apply any pressure and lets Kuroi coast for pretty much no reason.

That's an over-statement. "He's lynchbaity so I'm nervous about wagoning him" is a lot different than "he's lynchbaity so he has a golden ticket".

[mhsmith0]

in application its kind of similar though.

i should stop being lazy and actually compile thoughts on him.

Well, no. A player who's lynchbaity has a higher threshold of what it takes to get lynched, but that doesn't mean that it's infinitely high. A player who's lynchbaity AND who has a plausibly town-indicative derp moment, though, has a (IMO) pretty high threshold. Like I said, I'll skim the game I had w kuroi to see what the comparison looks like. If I see substantial differences, I'll be more inclined to consider a vote. If it looks like just the same pattern, then it's a harder sell.

[mhsmith0]

nothing.
why is that the first post youve made in two days?

cuase you had a town read on me and scum read on cake

why you voted me over cake when you poe'ed other?

that make no sense to me

Yeah but you no post for over 24 hours, then when gork pushes you, you're on and commenting within 10 minutes. So the first question in my mind isn't what might possibly be wrong with gorks vote, it's why you chose to talk about just this, and why it happened so quickly.

Edit: ok you might be flaking... but you were still keeping enough of an eye on the game to quickly pop in just to defend yourself.

[mhsmith0]

@fa: I'm not pushing you for your activity level, I'm pushing you for the fact that you came back on to this game FAST to defend yourself.

[mhsmith0]

I was online and I was posting a VC in one of my games

simply I was coming back to game after that to catchup

I don't understand the basic of this faulty way of accusing me based on the stuff out of this game.

I'm not pushing you based on stuff out of game; you're defending yourself based on OOG stuff, but that wasn't why I was pushing you.

My point isn't that inactivity is necessarily wolfy, but inactivity combined w beetle-juicing (say your name and here you are) is wolfy.

You also said that you were doing a vc then coming in here to catch up. So in the time between the vc and your re-entrance here in 789, were you re-reading, and if so, what did you find? Was that where 812 came from?

[mhsmith0]

you know what? cuase you have problem with my activity level and you don't count me as a human being.

I'm better off

Who is the "you" here? Because if it's me I'm legitimately offended by this, when inactivity by itself was explicitly not my point, and "you don't count me as a human being" is pretty low as an attack unless there's something substantive justifying it (and I don't see anything that does).

[mhsmith0]

Can we not do this? FA is replacing out, for better or worse, no need to make it personal.

[mhsmith0]

are you pregnant?

Given that she just said she was, what's the point of re-asking?

[mhsmith0]

i mean FA obvtowned the slot already

Do you mean wrt her departure and to surrounding posts, or something else?

[mhsmith0]

FYI from one player to another - you shouldn't mention ongoing games.

From one player to another, that's why I said the game was finished (which it was).

[mhsmith0]

poor scum hunting and/or wagon hopping

I'm sorry, but is this describing your wagon or your iso? Because that seems to fit your game here so far pretty well.

[mhsmith0]

FYI from one player to another - you shouldn't mention ongoing games.

From one player to another, that's why I said the game was finished (which it was).

You know what? We're thinking of two different games. I just realized you were talking about Stack The Deck. I was thinking about a different one.

Ok cool.

[mhsmith0]

leaning on mhsmith0 + KuroiXHF + shaddowez with a possibility of randomidget

Any thoughts on the three slots that naked hopped onto your wagon after the heartless vote?

And from 678 to 930, any particular reason your earlier third wheels scum read dropped off? And kuroi went from town to scum?

[mhsmith0]

^random was one of those three; any particular reason for him over the other two? Or why he's less scummy than your top three?

[mhsmith0]

The point of those questions was to see why SW wasn't particularly scum-reading his wagon (as well as his changed reads on the other slots - dwlee and cakez also seemed to shift without explanation). Since SW hasn't been super open w his thinking this game.

Although, yes, I was being a bit lazy w my reading/recollection of why people hopped on him.

[mhsmith0]

why SW wasn't particularly scum-reading his wagon

they're all townreads (except random)

And why are they town reads?

[mhsmith0]

And what drove your changing reads on kuroi, third wheels, dwlee, and cakez?

[mhsmith0]

why SW wasn't particularly scum-reading his wagon

they're all townreads (except random)

And why are they town reads?

why you want me to attack my wagon?

I want to understand your thinking. It's fairly natural to suspect your wagon, so I'm curious what you're seeing that's strong enough to override that tendency.

[mhsmith0]

And what drove your changing reads on kuroi, third wheels, dwlee, and cakez?

kuroi is meta
third wheels is looking townier
dwlee is still null/scum
cakez is a gut feeling

What meta on kuroi? What posts make third wheels look townier? And why did your gut read on cake shift?

[mhsmith0]

And what's the source of your scum read on me? PoE? 487? Anything else?

[mhsmith0]

mhsmith0

the way you're discrediting my reads. when i got a scumpool:
town: i'll voice my opinion on what i think of the scumpool
scum: i'll attack him and his townreads

Clarify how I'm discrediting instead of questioning/asking for more info on what have been largely unsupported reads.

[mhsmith0]

1. he's acting different from his town game
2. they're doing something (posts #666+)

1) how so?
2) just about everyone is doing something. What do you think of what they're doing?

[mhsmith0]

Frustration is unequivocally null for FA and beeboys posts are worrying me.

I await thoughts once you're up to speed beeboy.

Is there a good example of FA showing this level of frustration as scum? I've seen her get super frustrated once as town (mini 1782 w jake), am curious if there's a decent analogue as scum.

[mhsmith0]

I dont really see frustration in those, but okay
Want frustration, look at FA's posts

I can maybe see frustration in 947. Beeboy, where do you see frustration in 901 and 963?

[mhsmith0]

Dunno I just do that isn't something I would lie about.

901 is basically "yeah this wagon sucks" in a seemingly non-emotional way.
963 is basically "lol this guy".

Walk me through where you're seeing frustration. And why wouldn't wolf!beeboy lie about or just half-ass his reads?

[mhsmith0]

His constant pressure on Square's scum read on me.

Yeah, I throw the risk of shade-throwing, but I think he might be. It seemed less of trying to understand the reason for Square's reads and more of coming to my rescue.

You think my focus of my questioning of square was his read of you? Walk me through how you got that impression; I was questioning him on a lot of things.

[mhsmith0]

Because I am self aware of how terrible that post appears to be and I wouldn't commit myself to an opinion I can't explain as scum o3o.

Is stating reads you can't explain something you do much as town?

[mhsmith0]

Talk about what changed for you on kuroi compared to when you said he's a bad d1 wagon?

[mhsmith0]

You don't see it as plausible derpy/lazy town?

[mhsmith0]

Any particular posts pinging you as fake rather than derp?

[mhsmith0]

Why scum on mhsmith?

I feel like he is trying to mislynch one of me and Kuroi and other things are pinging me I can't put my finger on >.<

Anything of substance backing up:
1) my trying to ml Kuroi
2) my trying to ml you
3) "other things"
?

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: beeboy

sorry, i have to bus you

What convinced you on Beeboy?

[mhsmith0]

since when?

Not to you. But to people who have played a few games with me it should be pretty easy to tell I'm town. I'm mainly talking about Heartless, Bee and Wisdom.

Odd thing to say given your sig. But if you're gonna self meta, what in particular should stand out for those who haven't played w you before? Any particularly similar town games or dissimilar scum games for you?

[mhsmith0]

Smith, I didn't self-meta.

Nice of you to load that attack up though. Did it feel good?

Yes felt very good.

As far as self meta, IMO you kinda did in that you basically said that people w experience w you should be able to tell, which seems like a meta argument in my book.

[mhsmith0]

beeboy never acts like town

Beeboy seems to usually be freer than this as town. I'm not really familiar w his wolf game though.

smith so scum

Oh look a naked read. Ever gonna get around to discussing what you didn't like about 476? Seems like the start of our issues and I still don't see where u were going w it. Also helpful if you could point out the other games of mine u thought I was super obv town in.

[mhsmith0]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=65662

read this game. Smith was like InnocentChild level town from his play. He was annoying, but very town

Any other games of mine you've read? Sample size of one?

[mhsmith0]

A good chunk of that game was him listing off other games and us reading them

I did? Before or after your death (I'm thinking this is utl here)?

Skimming my ISO, I see in that game I self metad in lylo at
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p7849487
Well after UTL death.

How much of that game do you think was me listing off other of my games?

[mhsmith0]

A good chunk of that game was him listing off other games and us reading them

I did? Before or after your death (I'm thinking this is utl here)?

Skimming my ISO, I see in that game I self metad in lylo at
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p7849487
Well after UTL death.

How much of that game do you think was me listing off other of my games?

Also an answer on why you didn't like 476 would be cool.

[mhsmith0]

*fa is having a meltdown and screaming at people for no reason*
*"hey are you pregnant?"
*more screaming ensues*

What's weird is FA explicitly said she was pregnant during the meltdown, and 3 min later creature asks her if she's pregnant. Like, it seems most indicative of a sloppy engagement w the situation, as opposed to some kind of master plan. So, since you say you have meta there, why is this sloppiness AI?

[mhsmith0]

its an indication that ceature didn't read her post

town more likely to skip a post like that @mhsmith

It's sloppy either way. Cakez claims creature meta; doubtless he can give an opinion on how or if sloppiness is AI for creature in particular.

[mhsmith0]

So the main beef I (and mostly everyone else) have with Square is his shitty post stirring when FA was having a meltdown earlier with the "pregnant" comment
He's been opportunistic as hell all game and has voted like 8 different slots already today.
It doesn't match his town meta at all either.

Talk through creatures normal town meta then. What does it normally look like? Which games has he been much steadier w his vote in as town? Any scum games where's he's been like this?

[mhsmith0]

since we're metadiving, lets metadive mhsmith0 as his play here doesn't match his town play nor his scum play

Go for it, my wiki is pretty up to date (iirc last update was like a week ago). Also, how am I different from each in your opinion?

[mhsmith0]

I can't recall ever seeing a wolf spam thread in twilight like this, but I can't recall a town fake claiming in twilight like this either. Hopefully he flips wolf. If town that was pretty bad.

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: Kuroi

BBT, talk me through that kuroi vote. What convinced you to push there? I look at your ISO and literally the first time you even mentioned him was with that vote. Or, did something convince you thta Square was NOT a wolf?

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: Kuroi

BBT, talk me through that kuroi vote. What convinced you to push there? I look at your ISO and literally the first time you even mentioned him was with that vote. Or, did something convince you thta Square was NOT a wolf?

Out of the two, Kuroi was the much better option.

If that's the case, why weren't you pushing for his lynch and outlining the case? I get that you're not responsible for the wagon on square going pretty fast, but at the same time, a naked vote isn't likely to actually get kuroi lynched or under serious pressure.

[mhsmith0]

Also, if you're looking for a way onto my wagon you don't have to beat around the bush.

Just hop straight on.

Nah i'm still asking questions. Probably gonna re-read the whole thread sometime over the weekend.

[mhsmith0]

Also, if you're looking for a way onto my wagon you don't have to beat around the bush.

Just hop straight on.

Like, I could have pushed for Kuroi and people would have asked why. Then I would have said 'I'm not sure really, just something about their posting doesn't sit right with me'. Then people would be skeptical because clearly I haven't read the game properly and can't back up my vote so it's perceived as a weak vote (which nobody would follow) and it probably kills momentum on the wagon instead of pushing it.

@third wheels: talk to me about this sequence. It seems a reasonably townie response here. Is bbt good at taking these kinds of reactions as scum?

And what specifically about his d1 pings you strongly? And why are you sure about him/Kuroi? Think that vote without much push to it was just distancing?

[mhsmith0]

It's been more than that though, there's been a lot of rudeness

pretty stupid ^

clearly at this point in time I am okay with 2 people dying. Other than that, no one dies

Exactly. Which is why you shouldn't be OK lynching either. You should be OK lynching the one you have a scumread on and townreading the other.

stupid logic. I'm not good enough to peg which is scum

Leaning cakez.

^ severely out of touch townie

who the fuck guesses scumteams before a flip

are you fucking serious

Smith is hundo percent scum

Scummy dwlee votes me naked for no reason right after I expose this

Sure fucking looking like hes trying to defend. I don't give a fuck if you're IC, I want to lynch scum

@heartless your reads are shit. Sheep us and trust

bbt is someone who when you read him as town, he is scum. When you read him as scum he is town.

Smith, we are pretty damn sure here. You trsuted the ic yesterday and lost, time to trust the madpeople

Otoh I dunno if rudeness is particularly AI from hip, I skim
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
And see some there too

[mhsmith0]

Well, the reason could be he's scum

Then why did you sheep them onto bbt?

[mhsmith0]

Each of those was rude. Not over the top "screw you you're the dumbest asshole ever" way, but yes, rude.

Wrt my read on you, I don't have much of one. You haven't given much content (or at least explained content), so I don't even know what there is to read you on.

Btw, you STILL haven't explained what you disliked about 476. Given that 689 was "the worst post in the game so far", I'd think you could easily explain what you thought was wrong w the originally discussed post.

[mhsmith0]

We have a guilty on BBT in case it wasn't really obvious

It was, but I just played another game where it was really obvious, and it was just dunnstral fucking around (and he was scum).

[mhsmith0]

We have a guilty on BBT in case it wasn't really obvious

It was, but I just played another game where it was really obvious, and it was just dunnstral fucking around (and he was scum).

do you think we're the caliber of player that would do that

because how you acted was seriously fucking antitown you know that right

Not really. If you got it right you're dead anyway, and if you were wrong, you had room to back out tomorrow.

As far as if you're the caliber of player to fake a seeming guilty as scum, why not? In his situation it's not a terrible play. At any rate
VOTE: bbt

[mhsmith0]

I almost think it might be 10/2/1 tho, a sk works here and would explain why Kuroi (if scum) forgot it was >9 players.

[mhsmith0]

IIRC dwlees meta is to bus, so I could def. see dwlee w bbt, with or without Kuroi.

[mhsmith0]

Hey dwlee third wheels claimed a guilty on you. Comments?

[mhsmith0]

Meh worth a shot

[mhsmith0]

Something dumb like "no I'm the cop he's scum". Like, I doubt it works but worth a shot.

[mhsmith0]

Is it me or that "test" felt fake

Fake like me trying to get him a clear reaction or fake like I'm trying to trap him because I'm a wolf and he's town?

[mhsmith0]

Meh, I figured it was worth a shot. Not like it was something I spent more than like 30 seconds thinking about.

[mhsmith0]

Presuming BBT flips wolf, a town vig should re-read interactions and who seems most suspicious given that flip. If anyone thinks that's me, lolol.

[mhsmith0]

vca sucks in general

VCA is a tool, just like tone, meta and various others. Can be used well or poorly.

In this case, I'd say that the day one final vote count suggests that:

It's reasonably unlikely that random and kuroi are together;
It's reasonably unlikely that Gork and Wisdom are together (though their D1 back and forth reinforces this idea)
It's somewhat suspicious that shadow's vote stayed on beeboy after the momentum on that wagon dissipated, but I want to re-read D1 to get a better sense of how fair that is (especially given the fairly fast EOD wagon)

And the day two wagon seems likely to have a bussing teammate on it. MAYBE both if we're dealing with 10v3, but I don't know that I'd necessarily assume it. I'd be pretty surprised if {shaddowez, Dwlee99, randomidget} contained both of BBT's teammates, though, especially given the guilty on the board.

Nobody was scum on this wagon. It happens.

What makes you think that this particular D1 wagon was likely to be all town? It's not unheard of, but it IS unusual.

[mhsmith0]

At any rate, I'm PROBABLY going to be low content in this game until Friday evening. My apologies in advance.

[mhsmith0]

I don't care about wagons. VCA sucks.

Sometimes yes, sometimes no. I'm particularly proud of this one
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p7924607
(I subbed in at MYLO, wolves were RC/Ranger/FA... wolves swept anyway )

[mhsmith0]

Wrt setup spec...
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=29549

1407 watcher, tracker, 2 shot jk vs 2 goons and an rb
1446 odd tracker, even watcher, bg, neighborizer vs jk/goon/goon AND an sk

And that's it from 1400 on unless I missed something.

So yeah, it's really hard to see that working here, unless we're talking a bunch of powerful wolf roles (along with NOT having ninja there for whatever reason).

[mhsmith0]

I'm gonna claim anyway. I'm Gared, town tracker. I tracked Sir Cakez night 1 (no visit). My second track was also a no visit, but im not sure whether to claim it

Fun note: Jared gets killed and zombified in episode 1 early on, while will (in tv show anyway) escapes (and gets killed by Ned). I'm inclined to think fake/safe name claim here, want to mull over and re read first tho.

[mhsmith0]

I guess it doesn't rly matter as it was a negative result. Gork. Basically, I tracked beeboy on a hunch (I thought they said something about being confirmable as town), only to find out right at the end that they were dead, panicked and put the first name I thought of

So n2 you tracked bee boy, who was already dead, and then you realized he was dead and just randomly picked a name? Have you ever pulled something like this as a town PR before?

[mhsmith0]

Maybe. The flip side is that if he is a wolf tracker, then he needs a reason to justify gork, and doesn't have one so he just bsd something up. I feel like that's the only way it makes sense though, I don't really see this as a goon going "uh, I guess I uh tracked... Him! Yeah... Him! Cuz... Uh... I did it randomly!"

[mhsmith0]

Sorry glazed right over the second paragraph

[mhsmith0]

No worries, I had a long day at work and didn't sleep great last night so my attention to detail not quite as high as usual lol.

[mhsmith0]

We either have a vig or we have an SK. 9/3/1 would be weird though, so I'd guess it's just a vig (plus cakez and shadow are plausible vig shots). My suggestion is vig doesn't claim, since unless it's 9/3/1 we have two lynches to afford. I need to re-read given the shadow flip.

[mhsmith0]

A LYLO counter claim is fine though, because it's heads up either way (vig +cc, then the other is confirmed, or vig no cc, the wolf is in the no cc claims). If vig claims tiday, he gets shot by the wolf tonight. I dint see how that's ideal. Better vig claims compared to getting lynched, but best if vig doesn't get forced to claim and avoids the NK tonight (if we mislynch).

[mhsmith0]

Interesting data:

1)

Spoiler: VCA given flips only

Day One
Early

beeboy

wagon

beeboy

(4) - Dwlee99, Wisdom,

Square World

,

Sir Cakez

randomidget

(1) -

beeboy

Gorkington (1) -

randomidget

Sir Cakez

(1) - Gorkington

Not Voting (6) -

BlueBloodedToffee

, mhsmith0,

shaddowez

,

Third Wheels

,

Heartless

, KuroiXHF

Cakez hits 4 votes

Sir Cakez

(4) - Gorkington,

beeboy

,

Square World

,

randomidget

KuroiXHF (2) - Wisdom,

Heartless

Square World

(2) -

shaddowez

, Dwlee99

beeboy

(1) -

Sir Cakez

randomidget

(1) -

BlueBloodedToffee

Not Voting (3) - mhsmith0,

Third Wheels

, KuroiXHF

Shadow hits 4 votes

shaddowez

(4) - Wisdom, Gorkington,

Sir Cakez

,

Square World

Sir Cakez

(3) -

beeboy

,

randomidget

,

Third Wheels

Square World

(1) -

shaddowez

KuroiXHF (1) -

Heartless

randomidget

(1) -

BlueBloodedToffee

Wisdom (1) - KuroiXHF

BlueBloodedToffee

(1) - Dwlee99
Not Voting (1) - mhsmith0

Shadow wagon collapses

Sir Cakez

(3) -

beeboy

,

randomidget

,

Third Wheels

Dwlee99 (2) -

BlueBloodedToffee

,

Square World

Gorkington (2) - Wisdom, Dwlee99

shaddowez

(1) -

Sir Cakez

Square World

(1) -

shaddowez

KuroiXHF (1) -

Heartless

Wisdom (1) - KuroiXHF
mhsmith0 (1) - Gorkington
Not Voting (1) - mhsmith0

Dwlee hits 4 votes
Dwlee99 (4) -

BlueBloodedToffee

,

Square World

, Wisdom, KuroiXHF

Sir Cakez

(3) -

beeboy

,

randomidget

,

Third Wheels

shaddowez

(1) -

Sir Cakez

Square World

(1) -

shaddowez

KuroiXHF (1) -

Heartless

mhsmith0 (1) - Gorkington

BlueBloodedToffee

(1) - Dwlee99
Not Voting (1) - mhsmith0

Square hits 5

Square World

(5) -

shaddowez

,

Heartless

, Wisdom,

randomidget

,

BlueBloodedToffee

Dwlee99 (2) -

Square World

, KuroiXHF

Sir Cakez

(1) -

beeboy

shaddowez

(1) -

Sir Cakez

mhsmith0 (1) -

Third Wheels

beeboy

(1) - Gorkington
Not Voting (2) - mhsmith0, Dwlee99

Square and

beeboy

at 3

Square World

(3) - Wisdom,

randomidget

,

BlueBloodedToffee

beeboy

(3) - Gorkington,

shaddowez

,

Square World

shaddowez

(2) -

Sir Cakez

,

beeboy

Dwlee99 (1) - KuroiXHF
KuroiXHF (1) -

Third Wheels

Not Voting (3) - mhsmith0, Dwlee99,

Heartless

Square at 4, kuroi at 3

Square World

(4) -

randomidget

, KuroiXHF,

beeboy

, Gorkington
KuroiXHF (3) -

Heartless

,

Square World

,

Third Wheels

beeboy

(1) -

shaddowez

shaddowez

(1) -

Sir Cakez

Sir Cakez

(1) - Wisdom
Not Voting (3) - mhsmith0, Dwlee99,

BlueBloodedToffee

Square lynch

Square World

(7) -

randomidget

, KuroiXHF,

beeboy

, Gorkington, Wisdom,

Heartless

, Dwlee99 - LYNCH
KuroiXHF (3) -

Square World

,

Third Wheels

,

BlueBloodedToffee

beeboy

(1) -

shaddowez

shaddowez

(1) -

Sir Cakez

Not Voting (1) - mhsmith0

Day Two

BlueBloodedToffee

(6) -

Third Wheels

, Wisdom, mhsmith0, KuroiXHF,

Heartless

, Gorkington - LYNCH

Third Wheels

(1) -

BlueBloodedToffee

Not Voting (3) -

shaddowez

, Dwlee99,

randomidget

Day Three
Random at L-1

randomidget

(4) - Dwlee99, KuroiXHF,

Heartless

, Wisdom
Wisdom (1) -

shaddowez

Not Voting (3) - mhsmith0, Gorkington,

randomidget

Lynch

randomidget

(5) - Dwlee99, Wisdom,

Heartless

, KuroiXHF, Gorkington - LYNCH
Dwlee99 (1) -

randomidget

Not Voting (2) - mhsmith0,

shaddowez

2) Double ISO of BBT and random
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

Interactions (responding, asking/answering questions, etc. - NOT voting/making a case on a player) from BBT/random to living players:

Spoiler: interactions

Dwlee 566 1599
Gork 93 386 570 591 597 600 788 1153 1696
Kuroi
Wisdom 494 503 645 759 761 763 768 770 772 799 801 1131 1419 1677 1683 1685 1689 1691
smith 418 939 1132 1135 1393 1777

Relevant point (as told to me elsewhere):

Scum have no genuine questions of their brethren, so it is difficult to appear to engage in earnest, and often they don’t even think to try, beyond light banter and distancing votes.

Thoughts (presuming it's just 10v3 with a vig and not something bizarre like 9/3/1 with a N2 holstering SK or the like):

1) I REALLY don't think it's Wisdom here. Wisdom/random/BBT together on SW for a while on D1 is highly suggestive of them not moving together, and if you look at random/BBT, they're interacting in-thread with Wisdom a LOT.

2) Gork isn't quite as disqualifying (nothing in the voting data strongly argues against him as a possible 3rd member... the double hammer of the two flipped wolves is reasonably within range of the last one), but the scale of the interactions between Gork and random/BBT again suggest that it's not particularly likely.

3) That leaves a PoE of dwlee and kuroi. Looking at their double ISO... http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=200
neither of them have much to say to either of the two wolves (dwlee says things about them, but isn't interacting with them, just voting and pushing cases on them)

Looking at the voting data, that D3 vote by random on dwlee looks suspicious, and the scum-driven push on Square World after dwlee hit 4 votes is suspicious as well.

Then let's roll on this
VOTE: Square World

VOTE: square world

UNVOTE:
VOTE: square world

VOTE: Square World

It's unusual for two wolves to so blatantly push together like that. "Another wolf is the counter-wagon", though, is a pretty plausible explanation.

Also notable:

random's defending of dwlee felt like WKing

and the events that led to that quote. Also the follow-up

Then why were you voting Dwlee for so long?

discrediting someone (Wisdom) who was pushing on dwlee, which was highly inconsistent with BBT's stated "read" on dwlee being scum.

Throw in the derp clear moment that I still think is probably indicative for kuroi, and I think it's just dwlee
VOTE: dwlee

[mhsmith0]

^sorry for the crap formatting there, but it's late and i'm tired *shrugs*

[mhsmith0]

Presuming radja won't be a stickler about it (since obviously self vote wasn't intentional)
UNVOTE:
Still have suspicions on dwlee but that was a pretty townie sequence there.

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: Wisdom You have some 'splainin to do.

What did he have to explain? Suspicion on shadow or something else?

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw counting interactions is actually a decent tell. Wolves have no legitimate questions for each other, and at times they won't even bother to try. Talking ABOUT someone without ever talking TO someone is usually a decent sign that you don't really care about sorting them.

[mhsmith0]

At any rate, I'm at work and will be back tonight.

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: smith

Because ___? PoE? An actual read on me? Something else?

[mhsmith0]

Btw, wrt interactions as a tell, look at that double iOS of flipped wolves I linked earlier. Here are their interactions:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8150858 random talking to bbt about dwlee

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8154134 And surrounding, where there's a three-way conversation involving wisdom where wisdom "convinces" bbt to unvote dwlee.

Random and bbt had virtually zero direct interactions during the two game days together. Every conversation they had together involved dwlee. And neither of them seemed much interested in engaging with or discussing Kuroi.

[mhsmith0]

For another, I get the feeling that this Gork thing is just a distraction that Wis is pushing. It came out of nowhere and it was while the shadow wagon had solid backing so I'm not sure why Wisdom would gut the wagon he was ostensibly so sure about to chase this.

If shadow was scum this would look bad for wisdom. Given that shadow was town, though, why does wisdom bother doing this if he's a wolf?

[mhsmith0]

Well, dwlee thinks I'm the wolf due to Vca, you and wisdom think it due to ????? And Kuroi thinks it's wisdom or dwlee. So I guess you/wisdom could talk about why you think it's me?

[mhsmith0]

I mean as far as my feelings go, im kinda proud of never getting mislynches, so it's a bit annoying, but I also recognize I haven't played great so *shrugs*. I'm also kinda curious who really thinks it's me as who is just coasting along for the ride.

[mhsmith0]

just feels kind of more like youre talking at us than genuinely reacting to things.
could be that youre an overly logical player and dont do the whole reaction thing very well.

i kind of tried to engage you on the amount of interactions thing and you just kind of slid past it and then still kind of held it up as reasoning?
if you think its a reasonable point, why not tell me why im wrong.
why does scum not fake interactions with their scummates?
is that not a common thing youve experienced? especially with people who are experienced with the game?

So I generally see wolves not really interact all that much. They may talk ABOUT each other but it's harder to talk TO each other in thread. And I think you can see it in this game as well; bbt and random don't really converse for the most part, even though they're both talking quite a bit with other players.

Part of that, I think, is that there's a concern that interactions will come across as fake, and part of it is that they simply have no real interest/curiosity in what the other is saying. It's harder to fake curiosity towards your teammates (who you know their alignment and don't want lynched) than it is random townies (who at least you want to find ways to make look scummy).

Wrt my emotions, I tend to be a somewhat logical player, but I do sometimes show emotion. In this game, not really, town is doing fine, even if I die odds are still solid of a win. So what is there to be frustrated or upset about? I can get frustrated if I'm being ignored, if Im stuck with a lazy/crappy town, etc. here, not so much. I've also played kind of crappy in this game, and anti will probably be mad at me again for it, but so be it.

[mhsmith0]

Anti/tth are heartless. Anti/plot was a hydra in the last full game we played together, he got annoyed at me for playing badly there.

[mhsmith0]

i mean.
i more get the sensation of feeling like im not interacting enough with scummates when i ignore them for too long.
i would think soft shitty interactions with scum are more likely to come from scum than complete outright avoidance.

p-edit: kuroi >.>
sometimes you push this ignorance thing like a step too far and i just feel bewildered by it.
anti is half of heartless..

Sure, that can be there too. But both you and wisdom interacted with those two a LOT. Like, wisdoms i could theoretically see as an sk... But their teammate? I just really struggle to see it. Too many interactions, and I don't think they seem fake. Ditto you with bbt/random. I'll re-read to make sure, but I'd just really be surprised to see either of you on the same team as bbt/random.

Which leaves Kuroi and dwlee, both of whom have much softer reasons to think theyre town. I'll probably re read Kurois "derp clear" bit; that's the main reason I'd been comfortable w him tbh. Dwlees hammer reaction seemed good as well, though if he was the last man standing, it's not crazy to think he'd just go for it and push hard to look town there.

[mhsmith0]

UNVOTE:

Wait. I didn't see how many votes were already on her.

I scared the fuck out of myself. I thought this was a micro game, because Radja does a lot of micro games.

If it was, I would have just killed Frozen Angel.

This was the derp clear moment discussed earlier in the game, I.e. Forgetting that it had >9 players. Which is super hard to actually forget as a wolf (barring multi ball I guess).

[mhsmith0]

You ever see a wolf successfully pull off a "oh crap I forgot how many players were in the game" play?

I guess the flip side is if kuroi realized that his # players estimate was off, he should have just revoted FA based on his thought progression. /ninjad: yep, that's the counter point

But it still seems reasonably likely to be a town-indicative moment, unless there's any evidence that this sort of fake play is within kuroi's wolf range.

Hmm... Well, I guess I'll think on it. I agree that 75 looks off, and I'll look at the other points. OTOH, I just finished a game where kuroi's slot was the D1 lynch, so I'm a bit nervous about him just being lynchbaity. I'll try to compare this one to that one and see if there are any good parallels or not.

But in a 13p setup, the mafia would basically KNOW that there were >9 people, just by way of their role PM. The only way they wouldn't is if it was something like 10/2/1 (with an SK... and the SK would know that it's >9 people since when do you see an SK with 9 or less) or 9/2/2 mulitball where the role PM's didn't bother to make the multiball aspect clear.

So either kuroi is just INCREDIBLY sloppy mafia (who posted while forgetting that he had multiple teammates, presuming a relatively standard 10/3 setup), or there's info withheld or made unclear in his role PM... or it was a legitimately indicative moment, either because he was intentionally faking the derp, or because it actually was a true town derp moment.

And if Kuroi is a player who has never before tried this kind of fake derp moment as mafia, then it just seems likelier that he's just a townie who's being really sloppy in his postings, both in terms of remembering the setup and in terms of everything else (including the stuff about his read progressions). Like, I wouldn't want to bet the game on this, but I'm not especially inclined to want him dead anytime soon either.

A bit more on that.

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: Kuroi

I kinda don't think bbt pushes a buddy to be competing w a square wagon there, not with a realistic chance that square claims a role and town pisses off onto Kuroi.

[mhsmith0]

Random pushes dwlee a bit too early on d3 for me to really think it's just a "I'm going down anyway" fake push on a buddy.

[mhsmith0]

Meanwhile...

Spoiler: day one gork

Basically just screwing around, nothing serious.

FA isn't scum, they couldn't handle the pressure on them atm

but this look really serious >.>

plus for just screwing around you defend others?

i want to eat cakez.
random can be townpile for now.

also i kind of doubt that ill be voting fa this cycle short of a PoE pile that pushes her into scum.
and given this playerlist i kind of find that unlikely.

...

Don't cannibalize me Glork, your tonal read is bad and you should feel bad
BBT's random vote is weaksauce

I meant your vote on Random BBT

I meant your vote on Random BBT

I know

I didn't like Random's Gork vote.

Why?

i personally think bbt's opening is pretty par for the course for him in terms of openings.

...

VOTE: bbt
I want this
read their iso, it is bad
They're scum

just seriously, lynch bbt please.

nope.

It's got about as much content as yours Dwlee

theirs is scum content tho

nah.

...

and what do you think about random?

and what do you think about random?

probably town

I find shadow post duplicates of what of already been discussed

That and he's asking obvious things that he doesn't need to ask. He's trying to look busy.

thats already more than from what I saw from his town game

as much as he is not lol hammering and lieing to get another town lynched he is good for now.

vote: shaddow

...

"hi my name is random and i, as scum, am gonna poke hiplop in the face on entry for reasoning that is kind of silly despite me having an okay set of reads anyway"

I think he'd do it

sure he could. i dont think its as likely though.
ive also liked other things hes done that im too lazy to pull up right now.

also I'm not sure I believe gorkypoo got a townread on rando that quick in that moment. I think upon reflection he;d come to that conclusion but not so fast.

I think he didn't expect my posts and was trying to slot a scumbuddy in that golden "3rd from town' null spot. Juicy juicy spot

pedit: OKAY FA is town

Scumteam = Gorky/Cakez/ rando

Probably not/probably/definitely not

thats just an embarassing set of conclusions. :/

p-edit: lol seriously hip. do you really want to dance with me this early?

in that golden "3rd from town' null spot. Juicy juicy spot

in that golden spot that comes underneath myself and the confirmed town.
yeah.
true.
:/

rando thoughts on Gorky's townread on you

Might be a little strong, I haven't played with him before so I can't judge too much. It doesn't seem scum driven.

rando thoughts on Gorky's townread on you

so youre just gonna stop engaging me to call me scum for a read that ive had for a long time? serious question hip, have you ever read me correctly even once earlygame?

...

why are you testing the waters? if you want to vote me, vote me. dont posture around and hide behind wisdom's approval.

i know who im voting when this shaddow wagon fizzles out.

i know who im voting when this shaddow wagon fizzles out.

Who?

probably should have waited to mention it. woops.

i dont think youll disapprove though.

this doesnt feel like a wagon that goes to lynch.

Then what are you doing on it?

meh.

vote: mhsmith

im probably not gonna be posting much during the day anymore.
got in trouble for being a bad employee

...

Dwlee's vote on Gork was opportunistic.

What does his vote being second have to do with it? Wisdom's push on Gork was bad, but looked town. Dwlee looks like he saw the opportunity to push a player who could be a threat and it's very easy to sit behind Wisdom whilst he does the pushing.

Dwlee showed no interest in voting Gork until Wisdom started pushing. It was an icky vote.

...

Not really. He did opportunistically push gork after he saw I may support it.

tone reads are bullshit unless you wanna argue you know his tone is not like that as scum

My tone reads tend to be pretty accurate. Most of the time it's because I pick up on slight things that make me think people are town without even realizing, which plays into my general opinion on them.

Anybody who knows you knows you tunnel. For scum, you're the easiest person to hide behind when you want to
force a mislynch. Dwlee jumped straight on that and I don't understand how Random isn't seeing it when he knows how you play.

It is possible that Dwlee genuinely developed a scumread at a similar time to Wisdom. That's all I'm saying.

I feel like you're defending him a little too much for my taste

VOTE: random

i kind of think wisdom might be scum :/

...

like, i seriously dont get the dwlee push on your end.
especially since the conclusion of our interaction really felt like you werent townreading me.
for you to go "dwlee is being opportunistic with how hes interacting with gork" just feels gross.
especially since that reasoning is really ham in the first place.
where bbt's reasoning felt like it was kind of grounded, it felt like you were just kind of trying to get off of pushing me because it was starting to look bad.

youre also acting like im the one whos building things up when youve repeatedly been establishing scummy things and then coming back to them later?
both your read on me and your read on random just really feel.. weirdly intentional.
"hey see this scummy thing you did that i pointed out before so i could bring it up now, yeah now ur toast bud".
it just feels like youre trying to expand your options.
i really really easily see this being your scumplay.
:/

...

Gork please talk about your town reads of bbt/random on day one and how you pretty consistently defended them or pushed alternatives when they were up for discussion. What convinced you they were town to the extent you'd go to bat for them so heavily?

[mhsmith0]

It still seems likelier that it's just 10/3. Sk would be a weird situation. 10/2/1 would mean a town limited use vig (given n2 no kill), and sk shooting beeboy instead of heartless I guess, and sk/Mafia double shooting the same spot n2. 9/3/1 would mean sk/Mafia double shot n3 as well, unless it's 9/3/1 with no vig, in which case this is the opposite of an easy game.

[mhsmith0]

Like, it's obviously not a lock that we aren't in multi ball or playing against an sk, but the night actions are more consistent w 10/3 and a town vig, x-shot or odd night.

And if it's 10/3, my current best guess is gork. No single post smoking gun or the like, but a lot of day one actions where he was pushing away from wolves and into townies, and a bunch of different townies at that.

[mhsmith0]

9/2/1 no vig
There isnt a vigilante if there is an sk

ttwo people died last night tho, so two killers were out there.

[mhsmith0]

I also don't think the kills make very much sense w an sk. Why shoot the PoE?

[mhsmith0]

Also, night two, with the watcher very likely to be killed, why doesn't sk shoot just about anywhere else since goons are going there?

[mhsmith0]

Sorry, I got busy. I'm still leaning gork, will explain why (and why I'd picked those particular quote slices) when I get a bit more time. May be later in the week tho. Probably need to do yet another full re-read again too.

[mhsmith0]

see, its this selective engagement bullshit that im really struggling with.
i responded to you again and you glanced me over and instead are just posturing over your shit.

also, lol at you saying you grabbed 'particular' quote slices when its just literally everywhere that i fucked up.
nobody needs you to explain why those posts look bad.

It's not so much that you fucked up as it is that you acted in ways that deflected attention from wolves onto townies repeatedly on d1. That's more than "my reads sucked" (which happens to us all), it's actively acting in a pro-wolf manner. In particular, one thing I want to re-read for is whether you acted similarly for any of your other stated town reads or if it was just random and bbt.

I also don't see the wisdom case for being a partner for bbt/random (and I don't see night actions as being consistent w multi ball or sk), dwlee doesn't look right for them, and I don't see a case for Kuroi there either. Which kinda leaves you from PoE as well.

On a different topic, we're not having vig claim, but what are people's thoughts on flavor claims?

[mhsmith0]

It's raining outside. Thoughts?

[mhsmith0]

I saw garmr doing shit like that in mini normal 1775. Defending boonskiies and Sakura Hana (especially the latter) and deflecting cases and attention away from them (like you pushing cakey early when FA was like "cakey or random"). The wolfy part was more the attention deflecting than the defending, which is where I'm thinking here. Like I said, I'll re-read, but that's my head space right now.

[mhsmith0]

Wrt engaging, I wasn't posting since you'd made the nite, and my OP tonight was kind of a prodge with at least a game-related thought on it.

[mhsmith0]

v) i kind of hate the way you reached back to flip your reads here.
i could understand you engaging me on this, not believing what i say in response, but for you to start with "ay dwlee is scum!!!!!!!!!" and then get pushed into a corner about it, be told youre about to be lynched and then for you to come at me as the best option for scum?
i dont know man, thats pretty opportunistic.
:/

Wrt this in particular, I went back and re-read the game. I do that when I'm not sure.

I'm also not sure why you're saying http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8210384 was "ay dwlee is scum!!!!!!!!!", or that it was the pushback (as opposed to town reading dwlees post "maybe I just self hammered" moment). Walk me through those two points?

Also, what else have I not engaged with? I responses on the interactions count bit, did I miss other important stuff?

[mhsmith0]

Frankly, I'm mainly expressing my head space at this point. I'm not really sure what questions are really worth asking. Like I said, I'm going to re-read and see where that takes me. I'm sorry that I don't have much more interesting to say right now.

As far as the rest goes, yes I see that as a plausible wolf though process. Not so much "let's quick lynch cake" (obviously a quick lynch was unlikely) as "let's push the conversation and focus onto cake instead of random" (with other examples scattered throughout the day). Does that mean you're definitely a wolf? No... but I'm not seeing a stronger case right now. You've acted in ways that were meaningfully pro-wolf (beyond just mistaken reads on bbt/random), and that's a legitimate basis of suspicion.

[mhsmith0]

Link your last couple scum games on this account? I'll skim them sometime over the next few days.

[mhsmith0]

I dont think Gork is scum here

I'm starting to lean Kuroi tbh

Why on each? If Kuroi, do you think the miscount moment was faked? Or do you think that he, with two teammates, would legitimately forget how many players there are in the game?

[mhsmith0]

Wrt flavor, I'm somewhat in favor of a mass claim of "major character" or "not a major character". Major characters being Starks, the king, lannisters, daenerys, etc. Would rather survey opinion on it first though. Does anyone have a solid reason for objecting?

[mhsmith0]

At this moment, I'm starting to prefer being lynched and not being belittled as opposed to this alternative.

I'm sorry for being a jerk about it, btw. But it was, to me, an indicative moment. You forgot how many players there were in the game, and it's really hard to do this as a wolf in the setup. If you think you had something else that is strongly indicative I'd be happy to talk about it instead.

[mhsmith0]

Wrt flavor, I'm somewhat in favor of a mass claim of "major character" or "not a major character". Major characters being Starks, the king, lannisters, daenerys, etc. Would rather survey opinion on it first though. Does anyone have a solid reason for objecting?

What does this accomplish?

What's the downside? The upside is it locks a wolf into "im a major character" or "I'm not", which slightly restricts his options going forward.

Why are you thinking kuroi is a wolf here, and/or that gork isn't?

[mhsmith0]

The upside is it locks a wolf into "im a major character" or "I'm not", which slightly restricts his options going forward.

And? They have a fakeclaim anyway.

They do presumably have a fake claim. But a wolf might make play for a better fake claim in LYLO after more flips. Again, what's the downside?

Edit: why do you think being a major character (or not) is pr indicative? Prs have been:
A stark /major character (bran)
A character named in the flavor (will)
A non major character (bg)

I'd think it's not indicative at this point tbh, at least at the level I'm talking about.

[mhsmith0]

So basically I have the thought that he likelihood of the last wolf having a "cool" claim goes up as the number of such claims increases (and I'd agree that Radja would have given safe/fake claims, the ? is how good they are... it's possible Radja intentionally gave a flawed safe claim to the wolf tracker, but it's also possible he thought it was better than it actually was). Similarly, if Radja did NOT provide any strong safe claims, then having more flips enables the last wolf to make a better informed guess as to what kind of fake flavor claim might be profitable to try out.

[mhsmith0]

ok.
smith check-in would be lovely before anything happens.

I'll be back either tonight or early tomorow.

Wrt dwlee I'd like a cogent case for why his postings surrounding his non self hammer were not meaningfully town indicative; on my first read they seemed pretty sincere, so what am I missing?

[mhsmith0]

Still need to re-read. Thinking kuroi for solid town read, still think wisdom doesn't fit at all as a third teammate, which leaves dwlee and gork as the two options barring some weird format that the night actions don't seem to work with.

[mhsmith0]

Gork doesnt fit with associatives

how so?

[mhsmith0]

Do a random + bbt + gork iso
VOTE: Kuroi
I dont think you.fit.either so

talk about how kuroi fits w associatives? or is it just a PoE thing?

[mhsmith0]

So do you think that Gork did not in fact do a lot of deflecting attention away from random/BBT on day 1, or do you just think that it's not reasonably likely to be AI?

[mhsmith0]

which i'll be honest, i have no idea what to even look at now.
ive independently thought that everyone else left is town for various reasons.
zzzz.

^ yeah kind of an annoying game tbh. 4v1 (presumed split) should be like easy mode.

[mhsmith0]

I feel like that early moment was AI for kuroi though. Walk me through a case on him that isn't just PoE from town-reading others?

[mhsmith0]

vote: kuroi

why do you think it's kuroi?

[mhsmith0]

It's funny but I still think dwlee or you. I don't really see the kuroi case; what is it besides PoE?

[mhsmith0]

Yes, funny. Why do you thikn it's kuroi?

[mhsmith0]

frankly, it doesn't clear things up at all. reasons why it's your read would be helpful.

[mhsmith0]

how about someone make a case for kuroi beyond "why not"

[mhsmith0]

PoE is how I end up doing this game. It is why my late game is stronger than early.

Then make a solid case for your town reads being town I guess.

[mhsmith0]

good talk then.

[mhsmith0]

@gork: where does your wisdom town read come from then? justifying it now instead of at LYLO would help (I agree he's town fwiw)

[mhsmith0]

not really, you've been bouncing around who is or isn't a wolf for a while now.

[mhsmith0]

See you on kuroi not long ago

the way that kuroi got really indignant at people earlier read town, from what i remember his townmeta looks more like this game than his scummeta, and my gut just doesnt get hungry at the idea of him being scum.
wisdom is probably town and i feel bad that i cant come up with better reasons to espouse than this.
smith's effort rings more genuine than dwlee's.

can still really easily see this being dwlee's scum-bussing meta and i kind of feel like his reaction to me pointing that out originally may have been weird? may need to look at it again.
and theres that his entire focus right now is very limited and is almost entirely based on mechanics and whether theres a serialkiller in the setup.
theres no trying to parse whether someone is scum, just trying to figure out if wisdom is an okay lynch because he might be SK [which is really a bad angle to be looking at and kind of reminds me of some other scumgames ive seen from other players]

[mhsmith0]

90% of me wants to vote the path of least resistance to get this game over with.
and then the last 10% of me knows that you asking me about my wisdom read at this point is just absolutely not protown.
and if you were town i think you would know why.

like, i actually want to lock you into opinions so you don't get to hem and haw and dance around for the easiest option in LYLO.

[mhsmith0]

I'm thinking about it, but I don't really want to let it be dwlee coasting for an easy win in that case.

[mhsmith0]

It would also be nice if you could, like, actually make a case for it being kuroi too. I don't see it; maybe point out what I'm missing rather than bitch at me for town-reading a specific moment?

[mhsmith0]

Yes. It would be nice if you could make a case for why I'm wrong as opposed to "lol you and your reads" or "I'm sick of dealing with you"

[mhsmith0]

sorry to hear that.

[mhsmith0]

honestly, shit happens. a lot of people get annoyed at me when I play mafia for some reason. I've actually tried to tone down the annoying bit fwiw (with some success). I'm still town, I still suspect you, and I still don't understand the kuroi case. Sorry if you're also town and I'm just being dense / obnoxious about it.

[mhsmith0]

sure. I still think it's you, so I want to push you to commit to reads in advance of LYLO so you don't get an easier chance to snipe ftw.

[mhsmith0]

well if I'm lynched and it's you and you NK wisdom, you would seem to have a nice selection of dwlee vs kuroi to pick form, for instance.

[mhsmith0]

basically the entire question seems pointless and it should be obvious why.
and you asking it and standing behind it is pretty awful.

p-edit: what does my read on wisdom matter then?
:/

that's a fair point. otoh you could just decide to NK someone else and it's you/wisdom/x. I was mainly going for trying to lock you out of LYLO options at this point tbh, as well as to see if you had tangible/convincing reasons for your reads, and then maybe I can read you that way.

[mhsmith0]

like, i can only really think of one reason you ask that question.
and the timing of it [when it looks like kuroi is about to be lynched] looks really really really bad.

why does the timing of it when kuroi is in that spot look bad?

[mhsmith0]

i guess unless it was a dumb mindless question.
but still.
like.

:/

p-edit: jesusssssssssssss.
you cant be missing this context.

on my end the context is I suspect you, I don't understand the kuroi wagon, I don't understand your hop on, and I'm not comfortable w things. idk what you're getting at but maybe I'm just being dense.

[mhsmith0]

i hate this game and that literally everyone is having genuine sounding reactions to things.

+1 I literally don't know who the last wolf is, I think the case on you is better than others, and I don't understand the Kuroi case. It feels like Kuroi case is PoE and I feel like last wolf case should be better than that, or if that is the whole thing, that the town cases on others should be explicit and strongly spelled out.

[mhsmith0]

Sure. But it would be nice if someone could spell out the PoE case at this point. Like, why is gork strong town for you, and why are Kurois reactions fake?

[mhsmith0]

Re reading game again...

[mhsmith0]

Eh, I'm re-reading. Coming around to thinking that D1 was super weird between BBT/random and you if it's a 3-man team. Still not sold on gork, but the bit with kuroi not bothering to revote FA after supposedly being OK with a vote that could have hammered is legit odd tbh. Trying to think if he deserves a TR or not if I toss out that instance as being null instead of town AI.

[mhsmith0]

Since it's a annoying wall o text ill spoiler...

Spoiler: wall

I can understand Dwlee questioning Wisdom. I just don't understand the rise in apparent anger. This appears artificial.

Im hormonal af tbh

wtf am I still voting Wisdom?

VOTE: Dwlee

Being hormonal "af" isn't a good excuse for you. If you're legitimately not feeling well enough to play, you should replace out. Otherwise, I'm going to treat it as a scumtell.

So this is where Kuroi pushes dwlee essentially for his bbt push on d1.

What does his vote being second have to do with it? Wisdom's push on Gork was bad, but looked town. Dwlee looks like he saw the opportunity to push a player who could be a threat and it's very easy to sit behind Wisdom whilst he does the pushing.

Dwlee showed no interest in voting Gork until Wisdom started pushing. It was an icky vote.

He clearly did though.
People are trying to push this Dwlee wagon really hard which is weird.

a weird turnabout from random from his early stated scum read on dwlee. Could be dwlee as a buddy... would random swing back on this if there was just one wolf on the dwlee wagon if dwlee town? Kinda suggestive of not gork at that moment I guess.

Hi Heartless!

Is there a particular reason for why you're ignoring the Dwlee wagon?

Bbt continuing to push on dwlee with dwlee in the lead. Does bbt have a meta of hard bussing d1? Anyone know his scum game?

um... um... b/c we're scum and we're just waiting for the heat to die down?

I mean, that's a fantastic response and all, but thoughts on Dwlee's voting of Gork?

Obv could be a defense of gork, but could also be just discrediting of dwlee. Bbt working surprisingly hard for lynch here unless a bus, and random wasn't on it for the town credit. Could maybe argue for a mislynch where buddy was NOTon it (so only bbt takes heat for it).

mhsmith [post]689[/post is classic scum. Defending himself while trying to throw shade. Its a really, really bad attempt.

This is a guy who in literally every other game I've seen him in has made himself

incredibly obvious

town. Like innocent child level towna fter like two posts. Here, he is awkward and defensive

I voted you cause fuck gladiators.
link the games he obvtowned in or I'm plynching you for being a gladiator and using your ability.

Does dwlee as wolf bother to stick his head into here, especially as a snap reaction (his vote was FAST, two minutes after tw's gladiate bit)?

...
THIS
DOESN'T
MEAN
DWLEE
COPIED
YOU

If bbt really was hard bussing, why is random hard defending? Such a bizarre strategy for a team.

I'm beginning to get the feeling that smith is defending/whiteknighting me by his defense. I'm not sure how I feel about this.

His constant pressure on Square's scum read on me.

Yeah, I throw the risk of shade-throwing, but I think he might be. It seemed less of trying to understand the reason for Square's reads and more of coming to my rescue.

This is nonsense reaction to my posts that were asking square to explain his reads. The below are QUESTIONS, not attacks.

leaning on mhsmith0 + KuroiXHF + shaddowez with a possibility of randomidget

Any thoughts on the three slots that naked hopped onto your wagon after the heartless vote?

And from 678 to 930, any particular reason your earlier third wheels scum read dropped off? And kuroi went from town to scum?

And what drove your changing reads on kuroi, third wheels, dwlee, and cakez?

And what drove your changing reads on kuroi, third wheels, dwlee, and cakez?

kuroi is meta
third wheels is looking townier
dwlee is still null/scum
cakez is a gut feeling

What meta on kuroi? What posts make third wheels look townier? And why did your gut read on cake shift?

I'm calling bullshit on beeboy's soft claim.

I want a better IC
Can we get a refund

The casual obnoxiousness of that post (though honestly I got a laugh) in service of a non wolf agenda (shutting down the beeboy wagon) seems super villagery to me.

kuroi/bbt very likely scum together

Wish I knew why they thought this though

And there's a lot on Randomidget, but it seems too easy.

the rng doesn't discriminate between easy and difficult

Fair enough.

VOTE: randomidget

Lazy level of scrutiny to get convinced by that point

okay.
so your thought was "wisdom might be scum because he shot shaddow" while heartless body is sitting over there?
>.>

I don't know who'd shot who, although I'm thinking Wisdom killed Heartless and then the vig killed Shadowwez because they bought into Wisdom's arguments.
It makes sense to me. Heartless was the innocent child.

Blames Wisdom for what was basically a consensus scum read of shadow

I like when the scum color vote counts for me.
All of day 1 mhsmith doesnt vote anyone, is in the prime bussing spot on bbt (there was a guilty tho so -shrug-)
I just realized he barely colored anything le sigh
pedit omg broken spoiler tags might have hammered myself
fuck me

I TRIED TO SPOILER A POST WITH SPOILERS AND DIDNT PREVIEW
welp
okay
I think it is probably mhsmith, it makes the most sense, wisdom would be my second choice

This doesn't read fake to me

i dont get it

He used my name instead of Radja's because I was in his subconscious. So either he thought of me because he suspects me or quite possibly, he plans to do something with me. And he's brushing it off by using his age as an excuse.

And this isn't the first time this game he's done that either.

This is basically an insane voting reason.

[mhsmith0]

Anyway, there's enough there to make Kuroi a plausible wolf, and I don't see the dwlee as wolf argument being convincing. I support a claim

[mhsmith0]

Claim.

[mhsmith0]

Yes

[mhsmith0]

Yep. I want to hear what gork and wisdom say on the y/n stark bit.

[mhsmith0]

Wisdom, do you flavor claim stark (or other major character), non major character, or are you opposed to a reveal like gork?

[mhsmith0]

And generic "stark" or "non stark" at this point is I think fine. We can talk pros/cons of specifics after that point.

[mhsmith0]

Why not wait a day just in case Kuroi has anything interesting to say? He claimed not vig so I think he always has to die here but what's wrong w last thoughts? Also, do you want to make any kind of character claim here or will you wait?

[mhsmith0]

Why?

[mhsmith0]

Dumb about what? Kuroi is plausible scum but not lock scum, so I don't see the issue w giving him time for last thoughts in case we're wrong. Or is the character claim thing?

[mhsmith0]

Will re-read things tonight, won't have time until then. In the meantime since I'm apparently suspect #2 among non kuroi players I'll just flavor claim now.

I'm Jon Snow. For those unfamiliar w the series, he's the bastard child of house stark (sort of) and debatably the main character of the entire series. Anyone who wants to cc a character that is very obviously in the game and very obviously outside the range of a reasonable gm-provided fake claim do so before EOD.

And to be explicit, I'm not claiming a role. Just a character.

[mhsmith0]

It's theoretically possible but I don't think I've ever seen a gm-provided safe claim of the main character of the story. That would only make sense if flavor and alignment was randomized. Likelier is a safe claim of a next tier character - pretty good but not REALLY good. The tracker guy as an example. Arya (town flip) and catelyn (???) are also in the range if what is expect for fake claims. Catelyn is actually a mean safe claim to give since she (like the tracker guy) dies and comes back kinda evil (though catelyn less than the tracker). Not putting it past radja though, especially if the janitor provided a full flip to the bad guys (I.e. They had the option of fake claiming a role that they nk'd). If that was the case then they just bungled the n1 kill, since killing literally anyone other than heartless was better for the sake of creating a fake claim.

[mhsmith0]

- Wait, 771 – and I have a hard time deciphering these pronouns – but, if I read this right, you correctly identified Random defending BBT? Am I understanding this right?

no, he was defending dwlee
Which is relatively good argument for dwlee not being scum

Agreed. I don't see how it makes sense for dwlee to be third wolf here. Kuroi works, and I don't see the gork clear. But it's probably just kuroi with a lame gm provided safe claim.

[mhsmith0]

Anyone who wants to cc a character that is very obviously in the game

and very obviously outside the range of a reasonable gm-provided fake claim

do so before EOD.

That's bull, the mod provided fakeclaim can be anyone

I've never seen it as the #1 main character. I've seen it as a top three type character (in lambert simnel I was the king Henry 7 and one of the two battle generals was a fake claim for instance), but not #1. Iirc that's also outside radjas range as a flavor game mod though I'd have to re-skim his walking dead games to be sure.

@dwlee: link to game you referenced?

[mhsmith0]

As a side note that n1 kill is ALSO outside my wolf range. Especially with a janitor on hand the odds of me signing off on a kill of the declared ic are approximately zero. Feel free to meta me on this. I don't think I've ever taken a shot as bad as that one as a wolf (Though in fairness I don't have many shots to my name). Heartless talked about ic+watcher being town-sided, but the janitor power makes it really obvious that someone other than the ic should have been shot. For instance Beeboy claiming a confirmable role would have been a good shot.

[mhsmith0]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=65594

Was link a town role? If so that still follows the idea of Zelda as a good safe claim but not a crazy good safe claim.

[mhsmith0]

I'd lynch dwlee over wisdom about 10 times out of 10. If it's gork vs dwlee I'm less sure. Probably I'd see who can demonstrate a track record of quality kills as scum and/or evaluate potential claims. Then again given stated suspicion on me it might not be my decision to make *shrugs*.

[mhsmith0]

If you want my order of scum to not scum, here it is:

Dwlee >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Wisdom>Gork>>Smith.

It's not Smith. Wisdom, did you need me to go through today? Is today where you think Smith is more likely to be scum than not?

Bottom line for us the clear case on me gork and wisdom as you understand it

[mhsmith0]

Quick summary of why each of me gork and wisdom are clear

[mhsmith0]

Sorry. If you were asking us to promise a dwlee lynch I figured you had the rest of us as clear.

[mhsmith0]

It's probably kuroi and I don't think we're really getting anywhere by waiting.
VOTE: kuroi

Ps if this is wrong and you guys wanna vote me tomorow whatever, but my flavor claim really should be clearing and I would never have let my team take that terrible n1 shot in a million years. And especially not with beeboys "confirm able role" hanging out there for a janitor to easily clean up. As a wolf I'm bad at fitting in, but I take pride in well thought out night kills, see

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=66768
Subbed d2 shot the cop n2

http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... Mafia-Chat
Read iawy as cop within first 100 posts of the game, spent most of day 1 fighting off a tunnel and refining/confirming the read

At any rate, if we go to lylo we full claim. I'd be shocked if it's wisdom, would lean gork over dwlee if it's not kuroi but hopefully it's done today.

[mhsmith0]

Presuming you're not trolling I don't think it's ever wisdom. Gork vs dwlee idk.

[mhsmith0]

I'm not great at night shots but that heartless shot was questionable with normal scum roles (due more to doc possibility than anything else tbh) and utterly ridiculous with a janitor. You use a janitor on the slot that has a known flip? That's simply DUMB.

[mhsmith0]

^im competent and thoughtful at night shots. Wouldn't call myself great.

[mhsmith0]

Yes it does. I probably should have mocked it for reactions d3 to see what would happen *shrugs*.

Whether it was a janitor shot idk but it's just mechanically optimal to janitor shoot elsewhere n1. Like, literally anywhere else (except maybe a scum spect like shadow I guess).