Mini 1826: The Purge - Game Over

[Realeo]

Any questions? This feels de ja vu. I made the first strike at making reads and I got attacked for it. D1 repeats =/

[Realeo]

Ok I'm not doing this anymore. I need to know if there's even enough people considering a strand in Realeo. I don't know if it's just me but a lot of what he says honestly makes no sense to me. considering this is potentially last strand I'm not going to bother if there's no support for strand. That will be my kill spot though.

Consider me on Pere with pisskop

It doesn't make senses due to logic or due to language? Remember that I'm not a native speaker, so if something doesn't mix up--speak up.

[Realeo]

As I’ve said before while bussing in these sorts of reads lists isn’t impossible (Given they are just fluff with no voting or anything behind them) I don’t see scum working so hard to distance / bus each other given that they simply need a +1 Town net killed at Night to win.
It might be a gambit to make people less like to shoot within that threesome but that’s a pretty convoluted explanation at this point in time.

Quite the contrary, bussing is favorable.

I mean, given how easy town for town to fuk up, it gives scum an incentive to invest for long ball. There's a high chance of scum win due to town fuk up so why focus with slow term when you can do precautionary act for long term?

[Realeo]

It might be a gambit to make people less like to shoot within that threesome but that’s a pretty convoluted explanation at this point in time.

Hold on a second, is this a scum slip an or occam razom at its extreme?

[Realeo]

But if the strongman gets clipped, the other scum becomes the strongman. If the other scum is townier, it's ovah for town.

I am not a mason

[Realeo]

Wait, let me do the numbers.

[Realeo]

This is why I kinda find it hard to believe that scum is not bussing.

I am expecting that if scum is 100% not-bussing, we will have 1 or 2 prime targets of "to be lynched" due to the push. The dynamic of the game says otherwise. This is actually quite a stable mood. No one is really being pushed. Lane wants me but that's it. Pisskop wants me but that's it. Do I miss something else?

But yes, you are mathematically correct, MOI.

[Realeo]

*Pisskop wants PeregineV.

[Realeo]

It might be a gambit to make people less like to shoot within that threesome but that’s a pretty convoluted explanation at this point in time.

Hold on a second, is this a scum slip an or occam razom at its extreme?

This is still in play, btw.

I wouldn't be shocked if shos or kraska says this. That would be in character, although it will still raise a flag.

But MOI's is entirely shocking.

Let me try to explain this.

I have seen people make argument, followed by occam razor.

I think A and B are scum due to POE,

(argument)

but given the dynamic of A and B, it seems kinda impossible and a little bit too stratch.

(occam razor: he overrides the poe since the poee doesn't make senses.)

But I have never seen occam razor, followed by argument.

I very much doubt there is significant bussing going on at this point as scum simply needs to a +1 net kill on Town over scum from here on out to win the game.

(occam razor)

70 posts later..

First if Peregrine is scum you have a both Shaddow and Peregrine suspecting Infinity and Infinity also cross suspecting both of those.

(argument)

That is new for me. That is correct, extreme situations requires extreme call, but why prepare the extreme call in advance? If Godzilla attacks Tokyo, Shinzō Abe will definitely make extreme call, but do Shinzō Abe really prepare himself from Godzilla? Let alone Godzilla, they only start protecting themself from North Korea only after North Korea starts their missile trial.

Don't get me wrong, I have seen a lot of occam razor, followed by argument, but in Resistance

I don't think spy will propose another spy to create a mission with double spy. That's too risky.

In Resistance, this is more acceptable because spy also has an equilibrium to follow. But there is no exact equilibrium in mafia.

Spoiler: Little wager

Lane can't follow this post

[Realeo]

Occam Razor is all about compromising. What to compromise when there is nothing to compromise yet?

[Realeo]

BTW, About lane. Why do you find my non-commital is a scum point? Being cautious is now not a thing?

[Realeo]

Because you don't want to commit cause you know everyone you pressure for real is scum and you'll be wrong on all your scum reads. That's why you only have town reads, and when you scum read someone, you want to do everything to town read them

I pressure on shos like hell. When the towny attitute comes, I flip.

[Realeo]

Why does any of this matter? You're not going to push it, just filling the thread with crap. And even if you do push it, you'll just end up flipping your read with little reason.

How would it be a scum slip? Explain that part

Do you play exclusively by your guts?

The scum slip is simple : I would not expect a town think like that. The only way (for MOI) to think like that is for MOI to think like that is he's extreme occam razor (skeptical) or scum who unconciously let out his scum mind.

Oh my God. Town is so fuked up. No need to bus.

Pisskop considered the chance of strongman wanting to be lynch. Why MOI not?

[Realeo]

You haven't explained sufficiently why you had all those towny at the beginning of the day but then you had them at null. You said just like you try to see town in your scum reads (shos and pere) you try to see scum in your town reads. [*] So... You had them towny at beginning of day, but then half way through today you decided youd see if they were a little bit scummy? After they already flipped town? That makes no sense. It's your reads not lining up with what you had before.

Correct observation until the star.

Of course I try to see town in my scumreads and I also try to see scum in my townreads.

But my scumreads are getting stranded. Obviously I prioritize them first. But I don't abandon me trying to see scum in my townreads. For instance, I divert the topic two or three times about Vedith. I got feedback from Kuroi, I got feedback from Not_Chara. Why? Because I want to scumread my townread. But after that, it's over. Why? Because Vedith is not getting stranded.

Shos is in the spot light so I focus on him. He escaped, I go for the next player in the line, that will be peregineV. PeregineV didn't escape, but had he done, the next player in the line will be {vedith/kraska/nosferatu}

[Realeo]

Let me clarify this, first of all. Lane, MOI.

So what is your expectation of a "read"

Yes, to get a read, I am not commital and I throw random theory. I confirm them and cross-check them. (ie. me with Pisskop. Those meta fuss at the beginning. That's how I get read. I may scumread Pisskop if I don't throw those "random" theory.)

But when I have a read, I am in in to tunnel it until I find otherwise. I went pages and pages both setup rebuttal and accusing shos. If those me attacking shos is random and non commital, I have no idea.

If you have problem with me throwing random idea, why complain now at D2? Why not at D1? I went 7 IRL days at D1 without attacking anyone. I made like 60+ posts during the first 7 days.

[Realeo]

That Realeo is

trying

to somehow say this is a scum-slip says he’s stretching pretty badly to justify moving his so called “Town/Towny/ Townish” previously claimed (today’s) read on me to scum.

Trying? Are you exagerating? I gave you the benefit of doubt of assuming you are extreme Occam.

[Realeo]

If am really trying, I will go all out like I did at shos.

[Realeo]

Because in Day 2 which is not cluttered with tons of "let's set-up break" posts filling the thread the manner in which you constantly self-contradict and try to explain away why "reads aren't really reads" looks like scum scrambling after being called out for having no solid trajectory to how said reads changed / developed.

That is correct in a normal situation. However, I already said that PeregineV alive made be anxious because I am afraid I am wrong. Obviously, I will start from zero, eh?

[Realeo]

Really the kicker for me is you are still waffling between calling me scum (for a scum-slip which makes absolutely no sense) and appealing to me in a manner that says "MoI is Town" depending on the post.

Because I'm letting you to defend yourself?

Let's get back to my clash between Realeo v Pisskop. I asked why he scumread me and I tell him why I scumread him. He tell that it's his meta and it checks out. He defends himself.

I'm offering you the same chance.

But do I have to be explicit 100% all the time?

[Realeo]

If you have problem with me throwing random idea, why complain now at D2? Why not at D1? I went 7 IRL days at D1 without attacking anyone. I made like 60+ posts during the first 7 days.

Why do you ask this? Your whole deal is scum reading your town reads, and town reading your scum reads. Why would you not know why people would reevaluate? After 7 dead towns? Do you wonder why other people would also reevaluate? Do you think you're the only one that can do that?

No. That is not the context.

The context is if random is scummy aa fuck, why not townread me D1?

It haa been clarified so that topic is done.

[Realeo]

Lowest number wins (loses)

Omg. You are genius.

With 3 scums out of 5 non masons, obviously scum cant manipulate the number to avoid scum strand.

[Realeo]

Umm hello. You have to strand people by a majority. You act like scum can't manipulate a regular lynch. You want to do it the old fashioned way? Be my guest.

Yes, that's what I am saying.

I rebuttaled shos' plan. As a result, we go back to classic "shoot as we want". Same standard here.

[Realeo]

Expect D2 read from me at Monday. With masons on the table, I can start association read.

[Realeo]

Apparently, even if the topic of the conversation is not setup spec, the way of how the dynamic works is contra plan v pro plan and prop plan v abstain.

Pro plan : PereV
Contra plan : MOI, Shadow, pisskop, Realeo
Abstain : lane, Vedith

The abstain pretty much doesn't talk with each other and the contra plan pretty much doesn't talk with each other. Not enough dynamic to pull a association just from skimming

There is, however, that caught my attention.

At the beginning of the game, Shadow quite defended lane and explicitly said that he townreaded lane.

I'm actually currently townreading lane based on his actions around voting me. He had a reason to vote me, and upon actually looking into it realized that reason was incorrect, and so unvoted me. IMO, scum could have either dropped it unless pushed by more players (I think Nos was the only one to call him out), or at least left his vote on me for the other reason lane had listed (me not posting except to say I'd be back).

I see no flaw in the logic. However.

Your 3 choices for scum?

At this point MoI, Infinity, and lane.

Did you scumread lane at the end of the game, or like my case, towny but null, when the death people are removed, he is at the bottom of the list?

[Realeo]

lane is her townread, that's why I picked up that.

[Realeo]

Did you see what happened with shoot as we want I might add? It was terrible.

And this has nothing to do with shooting. You just make your three choices, scum can't hide, like you're trying to do now, and we all strand

1. It is terrible. I acknowledged that back in D1. I kept saying the word

naive

. The reason I reject shos' because it is worse. We got ourself LYLO, it maybe game over in D2 especially if we screw up the line up. I am not going to talk about how you can screw up shos', especialy since you can browse my ISO about the explanation of 'screwing up the line up'.

2. You say that the player with least total win (loses), eh? Can I safely assume this means a strand (what else is a win(lose) mean?) Scum can force a 1. 2. 1. to make sure the town stranded.

[Realeo]

It depends on town being right the same way any other regular lynch does.

It also shows where people are at. With their reads, scum have to put in scum, and hopefully town put in scum. Why are you afraid of putting out reads?

If we don't have a consensus at the end of it, it's not like anyone is forced to lynch the loser. It can change. But I'm not surprised you're refusing to give reads

Ah, so that's what you mean. I was assuming that it's another great scheme. My mind went "Oh not again."

We're cool at that topic.

[Realeo]

Did I miss something? Is this game canceled?

I happen to be unavaliable during weekend (hence why I promised reads on Monday) and I'm hoping for Shadow's response.

[Realeo]

Isn't the mason peregineV and pisskop?

[Realeo]

Ok so you and pk are masons. Good talk

Now that thats done, can we move on?

I hope so. That was way too difficult and unnecessary

*le sigh*

All that for a sigh. What honestly was the point of all that? How fucking frustrating.

Don't worry MOI, you're not alone.

[Realeo]

The only person can CC now is Shadow. Mason can't be alone so I feel safe with the current

confusing

status quo.

[Realeo]

Why would it hurt town to be as clear as possible

+1

Next time you two become masons, please make it painless.

Ugh..Vedith..Why you replaces out?

lane, I noticed that I made wrong observation against you. You didn't quite go broad. Well, you did as we're approaching the end of D1. At the beginning, you pretty much tunnel at {kraska,Realeo}. You don't have any other scum suspects early in D1?

[Realeo]

I just isoed you... I can't see your scum motivation, but having trouble understanding your town mechanism.

[Realeo]

OK. Moi, infinity, which of you is the strongman?

[Realeo]

Based on lane and shadow's interaction at D1, I have concluded that both of them can't be in the same team. Now, I need to dodge the strongman. My feeling is that both strongman and town is in {lane,Shadow}, but it doesn't hurt to ask.

[Realeo]

Har. Har.

[Realeo]

Here's the logic.

lane fos shadows' for his logic.
lane acknowledge logic error
Shadow acknowledges lane' action and defend it when being questioned by kraska.

And this happen quite early part of the game.

Why would scum do that?

a) It has no positive effect. It's done early in day 1. You want to gambit to make yourself looks nice? Do it at the end of day 1. Classic Mafia 101.

b) If they're scum trying to seem 'rational', when one of them flips scum, it will seem bad. There is a better way to seem "town scumhunting" without the association. If I were scum!shadow, I will press on the issue at scum!lane "how come do you think like that? Are you an opportunistic scum who misstep?", enter a page of exchange, end it with "ok ok". You seems like town who is trying without the association. In fact, if either of them flip scum, the other seems townier because "why would scum bus at that point? Too early!"

As a result, I believe there is one town in {lane,shadow}, so the remaining scum is in {MOI,infinity}

[Realeo]

What?

First of all scumbuddy interactions don't change much based on the timing of them; they're mainly for when people look back after someone has already flipped scum.

I think what happened was that lane pushed on shadow to make it look like he was scumhunting and to group shadow with the townies he was pushing. He turned out to be wrong, and shadow didn't want to call attention to the fact that it was suspicious/he didn't think he needed to.

1. I disagree. I find it that mafia get manipulative in their reaction as time goes on. "Time around RVS" is when you get "pure" reaction. As game progress, it will be harder to differ buddying, scum butting each other, or town cross-checking. Remember that (from time stamp) that this exchange is around ~ 2 days from game start.

2. It will be easier to just ignore lane altogether insteaf of defending it. Lane got his hand dirty. Why Shadow has to join the dirty club?

[Realeo]

Rabble..Rabble. Uh....Ah...Ah. Uh uh Uh ah.

[Realeo]

1. Never seen the phenomenon you talk about here.

2. Honestly I don't think it was that scummy of a push, so I think it was fine to defend it. Don't you?

1. So it doesn't happen in mafiascum.net? It happens a lot in my playing group. At the beginning, people are chillin' out. As game progress, bussing and buddying at its maximum. You can't really pick up true intention except on early phase.

2. If shadow is town? Sure. If shadow!scum and lane!scum, easier to just ignore it.

[Realeo]

Leaning towards stranding lane.

I don't think he is strongman, but I also can't rule him out as town.

@Lane-

your thoughts on being stranded?

You idiot. Lane is either town or strongman.

MOI's play at D1 rules himself out of the strongman list.

If Vedith is strongman, than the question is why infinity starts to scumhunt at D2? Infinity can capitalize on the mysterius aura of Vedith at D1 to get himself stranded as strongman.

[Realeo]

A strongman strand actually helps scum. If all 3 scum shoots, they have higher chance of winning with strongman strand since mason has easier time (50%) to misshoot in the 4 unstranded.

[Realeo]

Remember that if all 3 scum shoots, scum wins even with only 1 misfire from town.

[Realeo]

2. If it isn't suspicious, why not defend your partner there?

You can let him defend himself!

[Realeo]

Someone's gonna shoot the stranded, lol

PEdit: ok, why does it make a huge difference?

1. Oh really? If this is D1, hell ya! Masons definitely will use their killing power to hunt barricading scum. You really think that the remaining two will shot the stranded? How do you coordinate it?

2. Because shadow has to be mindful with association guilty if any of them flips.

[Realeo]

Wee! MOI just made a wall of post! Wee!

It's funny how you go how deep into the analysis, but make very generic scum hunting conclusion. Lane has done better with less, to be fair.

[Realeo]

1. You are underestimating the chance. The chance nobody shoots him is (3/4)^2 = 9/16 . That is more than 50%

2. In a normal game, that is a valid argument. However, given the fact that everyone has a vigilante shot in this game, which makes the outcome of the game extremly radical and swingy, the correct play is to play it safe.

I will adress what's wrong with MOI's wall of post tommorow. Almost 11 pm in my country.

[Realeo]

I will adress what's wrong with MOI's wall of post tommorow. Almost 11 pm in my country.

If you are expecting me to care personally don't bother.

If you want to convince the Masons knock yourself out.

Actually, no. I am expecting people to either pressure me or either defend you to get another connection. I have shadow not with lane. I need more.

The fact that nobody bothers flusters me.

[Realeo]

Does this mean you think infinity IS the strongman, Realeo?

You ain't reading, are you? I said both town and strongman is in {lane,shadow}. I'm trying to figure out which is which. I need to lock down the answer.

[Realeo]

VOTE: Infinity

Contact me if anyone want to vote MOI.

[Realeo]

So I am having trouble.

Assume that my lane not with shadow combo is right.

That dictates

{lane,infinity,MOI} or {shadow,infinity,MOI}

but that would imply some serious one-way bussing. Cross-bussing? Normal. One-way bussing? What is the scum motivation?

@Masons:

I'm not commital anymore. Can you nominate the second goon? If I think the second goon is worse, I will sheep lane. If you want town to sheep you, you need to tell your thinking process.

[Realeo]

but you haven't done anything in thread to show me why I shouldn't vote who I know to absolutely not be the Strongman and overwhelming likely to be scum to play "Follow the Masons"

MOI is right in this case. Feedback/rebuttal is important in this case.

[Realeo]

I don't know. MOI has been attacking everyone (except me) but (except infinity) no one really moves on. Lane still votes me and Shadow still votes infinity without trying to guess the whole scum team but wouldn't budge at MOI's attack.

I can't translate if this scum ignoring town or just town tunnel vision.

[Realeo]

Something is really wrong with MOI. Expect me to reread MOI's iso in 24 hours.

[Realeo]

VOTE: lane

I realized that I fail to solve infinity/MOI

[Realeo]

It seems awkward for a one-way bussing. "I am having no problem being bussed when the only thing we need is town being bussed. Shit, I got stranded. I should have defend myself to make them lost track."

UNVOTE:

Better not rush things.

[Realeo]

I feel like everyone is rebuttaling my argument but nobody rebuttals MOI?

Why? Is it because MOI is scum that scum didn't need to rebuttal? The fact that MOI lands on a correct analysis that I am town means it's a very dangerous situation if MOI is town. The moment I townread MOI, it's a locked game for scum if MOI is town.

[Realeo]

TL:DR; If MOI is town, why scum didn't saw him as a threat?

[Realeo]

Wait. WTF. I am dumb. By my logic, that implies MOI is scum.

VOTE: MOI

Still waiting for mason's explanation.

[Realeo]

Masons, how come MOI can be strongman? I really need help here.

[Realeo]

Wait...

UNVOTE:

It is True that no one really challenges MOI, but so does infinity. No one also challenge Shadow townreading me...

Lane, can you be town this altogether?

[Realeo]

I mean, if town!lane scumreads town!Realeo, there's no need to try for scum, which explains the lack of conflict.

[Realeo]

The trouble you are having is that Lane / Shaddow not being partners isn’t really grounded in anything tangible I can see. If you have anything that clearly spells it out I’d suggest restating it because I don’t see that pairing as non-viable at all.

No. No. No.

I was assuming that my Lane / Shadow is correct to refute my own arguments. Go reread.

[Realeo]

Votecount 2.11

shaddow (2) - magna, lane
infinity (1) - shaddow
lane (2) - peregrine, pisskop
magna (1) - infinity

Not voting (1) - realeo

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to strand.

(expired on 2016-09-26 18:30:00) remain until day end

What a wagon. So who is being stranded? Shadow or lane?

[Realeo]

But I voted lane to L-1 and unvoted later. That's where I got convulted.

And about confusing arguments? Which one? The lane/shadow or the threat? I think given my flip-flop, it should be obvious that I'm leaving the lane/shadow.

[Realeo]

Actually scratch this - the unwillingness for scum to bus Lane make me think he is the other Goon. Because if he was Town with both Masons parked on him like it was a premium valet spot Downtown you would think scum would be all over stranding him. But no-one wants to go there.

But no-one wants to go there.

Hmmmm ... need to rethink my stance on not moving my vote ...

This is the same logic that makes me townread lane to be honest. He was scumreading me and declared that he will flip to me in an instant. People rebuttals me, people rebuttals moi but no one really refutes lane (There is a small exchange between infinity-butlane and that's it) . Is this because he is town in misdirection (ie. town!lane scumreading town!Realeo) so scum doesn't bother with him.

[Realeo]

I am more comfortable with infinity lynch, but it seems no one wants to strand him.

VOTE: Shadow

If there is any desire to strand Infinity, please contact me.

[Realeo]

@Shadow: If we vote infinity together, we can force a 2-2-2? It doesn't really help to prevent a strand I guess?

[Realeo]

People, why you have to rush a strand? I have to double-check to see if my post (#1489) was lost in internet.

[Realeo]

Actually figured out realeo was scum when he suggested 2v2v2 workout unvoting me, but was too late at that point

I was uneasy about unvoting because I don't understand the mechanism of tie.

[Realeo]

To be fair, if Shadow and PeregineV claimed mason, you may just owned us. I don't know if the mafia thread is released already, but you will see that we're scared as hell if the mason is {peregineV,Shadow} that's like, worst case scenario for us.

[Realeo]

X_X
I'm going to pretend this game never happened
Also I need to stop quickly writing off players like reelo as insane town

I have been there to be fair.

[Realeo]

Why the hell the dead thread scumreads PK? From my fabricated reads, my townread on pisskop is potentially the only town read that I genuinely townread?

[Realeo]

I bet this was a case of scum manipulating town by being the loudest. If we followed pv's plan there would have at most been 3 town dead and that's only if all 3 happened to be shooters

So Moi, lane, pk is my guess

Under shos' plan, that will be 6 town deaths since shos aligned me being shot by Vedith.

[Realeo]

The masons are so fuckingly exacta with their read.

[Realeo]

I bet this was a case of scum manipulating town by being the loudest. If we followed pv's plan there would have at most been 3 town dead and that's only if all 3 happened to be shooters

So Moi, lane, pk is my guess

Under shos' plan, that will be 6 town deaths since shos aligned me being shot by Vedith.

Where the hell did you get that number from?

Since Vedith and I are aligned, I and Vedith can shoot a pair. Reverse it, 4 death. You are going to strand the stranded. 6 deaths.

It's only a matter of 6 deaths in 3 days or 6 deaths in 1 day. Take your pick.

[Realeo]

Would the mason agrees that no-gambiting is the best play? Because I do.

[Realeo]

Just saw that the Micro queue needs mods. Suggestions for doing this as a micro? Just do 7:2 and keep everything the same?

I think that's a good idea?

I really want to join the Micro queue, but midterm is in 4 weeks. Not confindent with my schedule.

[Realeo]

I decided to go with another idea - NFL mafia. Everyone randomly gets an NFL team. The team that does best, and the team that does worst, each get to choose a 1X PR from a list. Each PR can only be taken once. Should be fun!

I'll do a micro run of Purge later.

How do you define 'does best' and 'does worst'. Why mafia? How about Mish Mash?