Because I'm a day-cop and he came up positive as scum.
Mafia 86 - mafia.gif - Game Over!
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My thoughts on BA don't amount to much at all, I'll probably look back at this when I get time this weekend.curiouskarmadog wrote:
your thoughts on my case against BA?Jebus wrote:Well, my computer's fixed and I'm back for now. I'ma read up a bit.
For now, though, anyone have any questions for me to look into?
your thoughts on my FoS at the beginning of the day?
Your thoughts on Emp and EA's "case" against me?
your thoughts on lurkers...
Same for the FoS
As for Emp and EA's "case", I don't think it holds any weight at all.
As for lurkers, wellBastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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Wrong. Two mafia of 3-4 can be like one mafia of two people, since there's a moderate chance the two mafias will kill each other.armlx wrote:5/12 is almost 50% scum... pretty high. I think we are done with 3, but 4 isn't impossible, though it would require pretty much every townie alive to be a power role. Talk about swingy.
@sekinj's 'bah' post - This means there'r more Yakuza. Probably one more left to wipe off the faction.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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Mafia A has 3-4 people. Mafia B has the same. There are 15 people overall. So about 6-8/15 are scum. This can still be a balanced setup, since two mafias have a decent chance of killing each other. So we may well be looking at 3-5 scum left.armlx wrote:
What?Wrong. Two mafia of 3-4 can be like one mafia of two people, since there's a moderate chance the two mafias will kill each other.
No. Mafia A would have 3-4 people. B would have 3-4 people.....
Unless that isn't your intent....
I honestly don't understand what your point is.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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Super Massive Post Time (or at least, part of it )
First off, a repost of who's still here and who's gone (copied from the first post):
Alive (16/24)
01- skitzer
02- Haschel Cedricson
03- Seraphim
04- armlx
05- Cybele
06- Erratus Apathos
07- curiouskarmadog
08- Ku_F
11- hasdgfas (TheSweatpantsNinja)
12- farside22 (DynamoXI)
14- Jebus
18- massive
19- ShadowGirl
20- Rush
23- Sierra
24- BlakAdder
Dead (8/24)
17- populartajo - vanilla townie - lynched on Day 1
15- Stef - japanese mafia member - killed on Night 1
16- ooba - cult leader - murdered on Night 1
10- Empking - vanilla townie - lynched on Day 2
09- Electra - greek mafia member - assassinated on Night 2
13- GhostWriter - japanese mafia member - killed on Night 2
22- sekinj - japanese mafia member - murdered on Night 2
21- Tarhalindur - tracker - slain on Night 2
So we've got more japanese mafia, probably only one more.
We've also got a few greek mafia members left, based on the japanese mafia, there'd probably be three of them.
Then we've got the rest of the cult which can't recruit since ooba is dead. Either way, there's one or two cult members left (possible that the cult started with two people, and one more from night one.
Then the possible serial killer.
So 6~ scum to get rid of. We've lost a tracker and two vanilla townies, so we're probably not in bad shape.
Anyway, on to the good stuff.
First page and a half contain a bandwagon on me. While it may be partly random, I still think it's noteworthy enough to give the five an FoS. GhostWriter, armlx, Tarhalindur , Erratus Apathos, and ooba. Three of them are dead, two of them were mafia/cult. So there's a moderate possibility that Erratus and armlx are scum.FoS: Erratus, armlx
Page three, we get populartajo jumping on my wagon. Turns out vanilla later.
We also get something else of interest, TSPN (who was replaced by hascow) in post 56. Take a look at it. Though it may be the random stage, I still think it seems noteworthy, and also makes me look at the Haschel Cedricson wagon.
The Haschel Cedricson wagon contained curioskarmadog and TSPN. So not really a wagon then, butFoS: curiouskarmadog, hascowall the same.
Page four, I ask for the randomness to stop and to get on a wagon to three votes from a lynch. My reasoning behind that was 1) because random stage makes it too hard for me to tell the difference between jokes and seriousness, and because 2) I felt like getting the show on the road. Bandwagons are a good place to start.
Populartajo makes a vanilla claim out of nowhere.
TSPN is the first to make note of the claim. He came in ten posts later.FoS: armlx, massive, cybele(they were all in the posts before the note of Populartajo).
Page five has an interesting exchange between Cybele and armlx, worth looking at.FoS: Cybele.
Not much of interest on page six. Sierra suggests pressuring Stef, and an exchange between armlx and populartajo.
Page seven, sekinj comes in with good evidence on populartajo, but no vote yet.
Stef points out he's being defended by being insulted.
Curiouskarmadog seems to be defending populartajo with synonyms.
Armlx tries to move off the topic by calling the points populartajo made rediculous.
Curiouskarmadog tries again to defend populartajo.
Shadowgirl tries to shutdown the discussion on the above, as armlx did, by using similar logic.
Sierra posts using only non-commital (as Tar said) questions.
FoS: curiouskarmadog, Sierra
Page eight. Some good stuff by armlx, and a bit more something from Sierra. Massive comes in with a late vote on populartajo.FoS: massive
Page nine, BlackAdder seems to know populartajo is telling the truth in his claim, but strangely still votes for him. The rest of the stuff pertains mainly do already dead town and scum.FoS: BlackAdder
Page ten, BlackAdder seems to be defending Stef (scum), and curiouskarmadog makes a somewhat moderate case against BlackAdder. Haschel Cedricson also contributes a bit to the pot, and voted populartajo, again with good reason.
Armlx calls curiouskarmadog's case chainsawing, which I can agree with.FoS: BlackAdder, curiouskarmadog
Page eleven through thirteen, we fall apart. Populartajo loses it, and we get chaos with even a doc claim. Note: Curiouskarmadog makes the hammer against a claimed doc. Not worthy of an FoS, but still noteworthy.
Day 2, page thriteen and fourteen, we get a five vote wagon on BlackAdder. TSPN notes the "japanese" before the mafia, and asks if this means more than one mafia.
Page fifteen, not too much. Something about skitzer's defense of BlackAdder is putting blips on my scum-o-meter.FoS: skitzer
Will finish up later. My list is as follows:
curiouskarmadog
BlackAdder
massive
armlx
Cybele
Skitzer
hascow
Sierra
Everyone else.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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Armlx: I'm not sure of this, that's just a rough estimation. Two four-person scumgroups = 8/24, boils down to a scum-town ratio of 1:3. With the cult on top, and possible SK, it makes the game pretty balanced.
curioskarmadog: I didn't say anything on 10/16 because I had only skimmed through the recent pages (13-17~).
I also didn't FoS the hammer because I found populartajo to be superscummy.
And yeah, I only went from page 1-15 on that. The other part coming next time I get a chance.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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I'm pretty sure there's one more Yakuza out there because of sekinj's "bah" post on page 22, just after the night scene. Remember, that was still day three.
Basically, it said "Go Yakuza, win win win!". This tells meOh, there's still a chance for Yakuza to win, so most likely there's still more of them.
You're right though, it's possible he's trying to screw with us, but let's assume the worst. Pascal's Wager, sort of, if we assume (bet) that there's still one more out there, we can only gain, and not have anything to lose, except time, which we've got plenty to spare for finding this info. Besides, we can always just find out after the next night scene :/
And I didn't FoS curiouskarmadog for his hammer because I found populartajo to be superscummy, so aka, it didn't put much of a blip on my scum-o-meter.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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I can't. From what I've read up on so far (up to page 15), SG seemed somewhat more pro-town than scum. If this changes after that, and excuse me if I missed this, wanna point this out to me please?armlx wrote:I can get behind a SG lynch.
And @sekinj's 'bah' post, it's on page 22.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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Eh, screw it.
unvote
Vote: Erratus Apathos
I'm a watcher. He killed (specifically) CKD.
I targeted Tarhalindur (didn't get targeted), Ghostwriter (killed by BlackAdder), and then CKD (killed by Erratus Apathos).
I've got no hard evidence on massive, so my justification on killing him is much lighter.
Ghostwriter was a Japanese mafia, so BlackAdder is not. Erratus Apathos could be any scum, so I go with him over BA.
They can't be anything else, 'cause they were targeted by one person only, and they died from it.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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My role PM says I see who targeted the person I targeted. I assume that means I know everyone who targeted that person.Jahudo wrote:Today’s lynch should be either Jebus or BA since one of them is lying.
@Jebus can you confirm this:
Would you be told if multiple people targeted the same person?Jebus wrote:They can't be anything else, 'cause they were targeted by one person only, and they died from it.
@Jebus: Why weren’t you more suspicious of BA yesterday if you had this information? You were voting for other people and not pushing BA.
As for yesterday, I didn't go after BA because I didn't have any good case against him (nor the time to go back and make one), and if I tried to vote him, the only justification I could have given for it was claiming my role, which I didn't want to do until I got at least one more.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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Because if I were scum, I would have chosen to kill them.
Tarhalindur was playing as a pro-town, so I assumed that would be someone who was killed.
I wasn't around/got swamped with stuff, and didn't have time to make an educated choice, so I picked Ghostwriter at random.
And as for CKD, he seemed moderately scummy, so I was hoping to learn someone of an opposite scumgroup to him, or a pro-town name I can be sure of.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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unvote
I'ma make this clear. Llamafluff called this out a little earlier ago. I am indeed a watcher, though I completely made up the BlackAdder bit for reaction, cause I was indeed suspicious of him.
So who did I target? I targeted Shadowgirl, who wasn't visited by anyone.
The rest is true, however. I did get EA guilty of killing CKD, and nobody visited Tar.
So yeah, the BA part was a gambit. I'm fairly content, after re-read number two of the last few pages that BA is town. The only thing that makes me think otherwise is his post 910, which just came off as scummy (as in an aggressive shut-down).
And for Llamafluff in this little gambit:
Post 911 - Where'd the mafia doctor bit come in?
Post 914 - So care to explain why Rush was killed by the vig?
Post 915 - Don't be so assumptious.
Just a generalization, you really didn't stop to seriously think about my claim. It was out of place, and I'm honestly surprised BA was the only one to jump on it.
I'd still like to look at EA deeper and see if the vig claim checks out better, but for now,Vote: LlamafluffBastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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I'm not actually thinking EA is the vig. I think more likely SK.
Like I said, the point of this was to alleviate my suspicions on BA, or confirm them. It's sorta hard to point out what a townie post looks like, since there's such a broad spectrum, but I think it falls under the 'townie angry/shocked at false accusations'. I believe he's town now.
Reading up on EA when I get a chance.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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Right, and if he's not the vig, he'd probably be NK'd by the vig.ShadowGirl wrote:
But he hasn't been counterclaimed. Though, I'm not sure the real vig would/should want to claim, anyway.Jebus wrote:I'm not actually thinking EA is the vig. I think more likely SK.
Back to drawing board, I guess.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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Or the vig would kill EA, in which case we end up better off. I dunno.ShadowGirl wrote:Well, then we'd probably lose our vig for sure seeing as the doctor is gone... But at least the mafia/SK won't be taking down another pro-town player.
As for niv, I'm all for it.
unvote
Vote: niv
@Llama - I saw that, got nothing to say, though, 'cept unvote.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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What, what?farside22 wrote:
I completely disagree because Jebus claim was tainted in a lie. Of course he didn't target GW the day he died. That is not hard to fake a comment like that when it is probably true based on them scum buddies togetherI dont know who Jap/SK is, I thought BA was Jap for a while, but the reaction to the Jebus thing seemed genuine. SK is most likely one of Jahudo or Sierra after the people I have ruled out, but I really dont know which of them is the better persuit.
Explain, please? (or at least re-word, I'm not really sure how to interpret this )Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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Correct. That was my gambit to get a genuine reaction from BA, which I'm content with at the moment.farside22 wrote:
Didn't you claim you saw BA target GW and that was not the truth?Jebus wrote:
What, what?farside22 wrote:
I completely disagree because Jebus claim was tainted in a lie. Of course he didn't target GW the day he died. That is not hard to fake a comment like that when it is probably true based on them scum buddies togetherI dont know who Jap/SK is, I thought BA was Jap for a while, but the reaction to the Jebus thing seemed genuine. SK is most likely one of Jahudo or Sierra after the people I have ruled out, but I really dont know which of them is the better persuit.
Explain, please? (or at least re-word, I'm not really sure how to interpret this )Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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If EA is not our vig, then a scum killer is out in the open, meaning we shouldn't need a vig counterclaim. We definitely should not waste our lynch on EA right now, now that I've thought this through. It'd be a useless gamble, and by having our vig counterclaim, we'd out our vig, who would get killed pretty quick.
So no counterclaim, for thenth time.
unvote
Vote: LF
Hai:LlamaFluff wrote:@farside - EA doesnt get lynched if no one counters vig.If you are vig, counter him. I already how showed taking out a faction works given the WIFOM situation it makes for scum involving their next NK.LlamaFluff wrote:Yeah fair enough, just given my read and guesses on what the groups were overnight, coupled with how people are acting today make me certain that Niv is scum.
Still hold true what I said about no counter-vig means we dont lynch EA.A scum-scum-SK-SK-cult setup is just wow.LlamaFluff wrote:I still dont believe two vigs. As far as I am concerned though,EA is not going to be lynched unless someone counters him.LlamaFluff wrote:
I have a bit of a personal priority to be hunting the SK, and have a really good reason forAgain, trying to argue for something that would lead to an SK (ie non-Greek) lynch.getting a counter to EA.Given that again a SK lynch (especially non-EA one) would not only present a WIFOM between jebus-EA as the modified doctor and only two anti-town threats, but also prevent one anti-town kill and eliminate any chance at the game ending.
Bolded all things pushing the counterclaim of the vig in the last 4-5 pages.LlamaFluff wrote:
My notes basically just have you two as options at this point. EA doesnt fit and SL doesnt fit for that part of the puzzle. I have strong greek or a town read on everyone else (except BA who I just am clueless on).Jahudo wrote:Also, what makes you think Sierra or I are the SK?
I know its pretty conveluted in the process that I went through,but if someone counterclaimed right there it would of meant a scum lynch, no questions asked. If fact it still would if someone counters EA, would make my job a bit easier.
Will get to the other stuff a bit later.
As for why we shouldn't look for the SK - The SK is always aligned as town until most, if not all, of the mafia is gone. Why? If the mafia hold a majority over town, then the SK is in the minority and thus has a bad chance of losing. And less/no mafia means that the SK is the only killing role, which means that they can only die by lynching. Which is why SK = Townie until the mafia is gone, which is why SK comes after mafia on the priority list.
Basically, use the SK to our advantage. If we've got him now by investigative evidence from an already claimed role, by all means lets lynch him. But if a claim of a power role is necessary to out the SK now, it's not at all worth it.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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Wait, what? (see quote in next post)BlakAdder wrote:@ShadowGirl:Llama has been pro-town the rest of the game, and asking for a vig counter-claim could just be stupidity/carelessness rather than scuminess.
I would like at least some kind of analysis, some kind of sign that you've read. What do you think of what's been happening?Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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So, um, what?BlakAdder wrote:I've said it before, I'll say it again. I'm a vanilla townie. If the game isn't over tomorrow, promise me you'll lynch Jebus,and possibly LlamaFluff as wellwhen Jebus flips scum.The way Llama's been acting towards Jebus's claim makes me think that they are scum partnersBastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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His claim is an unlikely scum claim, though I don't think it clears him.
For purposes of having an 'extra vig', if you will, I think the SK should remain hidden, and claim later on. Keep in mind that with all the mafia left, the SK would have to go after mafia if he/she hopes to have a chance. But yes, the SK should claim later on, maybe Day 5 or 6.
And I've already claimed, I am not the SK.
And as for my vote,Unvote
Vote: SG
Basically the above post. And although her interactions with Stef imply Yakuza, I actually think that she'd be Greek. Why? 'Cause I've been there before. Defending and teaming is done by scum, but usually with a pro-town as the 'victim'. Though remember, Yakuza don't know who the Greeks are.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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'You'd be surprised.The Fonz wrote:
Not to mention... who the hell breadcrumbs doctor?LlamaFluff wrote:
Being lynchable does not make you town. Having not breadcrumbed in a past game does not mean we should let that part of a claim go.ShadowGirl wrote:I always seem to be kept around for this sole reason - I'm a fairly easy lynch. As far as not breadcrumbing, I didn't breadcrumb as doctor in Open 70 either.
And if I must have something else in this post, it's that my opinion on SG hasn't changed.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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That was relative - and in that case, hard evidence referred to investigative results.Jahudo wrote:
What happened to this:Jebus wrote:Still wondering why we never got rid of massive.
You originally voted for him based on actions in page 4 and 8. Do those suspicions still hold that much weight? If not what else have you seen? And if you count suspicions from Day 4, do you think they are exaggerated by the fact that farside and springlullaby were the two people pushing those suspicions?Jebus wrote:I've got no hard evidence on massive, so my justification on killing him is much lighter.
Outside of investigate results, I'm very happy to lynch him. What I had him for back when still hold weight.
I also don't really count in opinion what the scum roles did about it - they could be pushing for a town lynch, but just as easily could have been pushing for a scum lynch. Point is, thinking about it gets you into a blatant Wifom situation, so I choose to avoid that.Bastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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Okay, I'll take it.Erratus Apathos wrote:I have doubts about LF's claim, but I don't think I can win as SK at this point anyways, so I'm just going to hope he's telling the truth and did get roleblocked on day 1. I am in fact the serial killer.
With that cleared up, if LF is honest then this leads to a guaranteed town win plan:
Today: We lynch Fonz.
Tonight: LF recruits me, Jahudo vigs Sierra, Jebus watches Jahudo.
Tomorrow: If both me and LF are both alive to confirm a successful recruit, we lynch massive. Otherwise, we lynch whichever of me and LF is still alive, then Jahudo vigs massive.
(Note that Fonz, Sierra, and massive in this example are interchangable.)
Does anyone have a problem with this plan?
My one problem is having LF recruit you - we could still use you as a vig.
Other than that, I love this plan.
Sounvote, Vote: The FonzBastard ModGod. Mislynch fodder. Suave savior.-
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Jebus Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1650
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- Location: Here and there
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