Mafia 88- Return to New Catania- Game Over!

[Elmo]

Bonjour. Reading. Can someone give me a brief summary of the case against the two candidates? In the meantime,

Original Roll String: 1d2

1 2-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

where 1 = Seraphim.

[Elmo]

unvote, vote Der Hammer

for wagony goodness until I can examine the reasoning.

[Elmo]

Okay.. I don't see any reason to policy lynch anyone who freely claims miller. I believe policy lynching claimed millers was when a cop claimed a guilty on someone suspicious and the person in question claimed miller, which makes more sense - it's far more likely that the cop hit scum than a real miller. You can say just claiming miller makes him more likely to be scum, but that shouldn't take him all the way to 100% diescumdie, the same as any tell.

More concerned about the vote count. To put it in perspective, we need to get

minimum

another six votes on someone in the next 4.5 days. Let's cross-reference Hoopla's colour coding:

Seraphim (6):

Claus

,

curiouskarmadog

,

Der Hammer

,

Natirasha

,

vollkan

,

Hoopla

Der Hammer (6):

Xylthixlm

,

Seraphim

,

Sir Tornado

,

tubby216

,

Shanba

,

Elmo

Tubby216 (3):

SensFan

,

Yosarian2

,

xyzzy

Sir Tornado (2):

OhGodMyLife

,

Ectomancer

OhGodMyLife (1):

farside22

curiouskarmadog (1):

iamausername

Not voting:

magisterrian

,

skitzer

,

militant

.

Now the colours haven't been updated, but you can see that Hoopla was right, a lot of the two viable wagons is people who've posted recently. Ectomancer, iamausername, and magisterrian are green, and I'm assuming that Yos will be around to move his vote. That makes 4. OGML hopefully will make 5. Thing is, 5 + 6 = 11 which < 12 to lynch, even if they all go on the same place. Not sure what's going to happen without either a relative lurker showing up or at least one person switching wagons.

[Elmo]

Given you only have two votes on you, the most likely explanation for people not caring about your response is simply that they don't care about his case on you to start with. Is he scummy enough to vote over e.g. a claimed miller at this point?

[Elmo]

Unofficial Vote Count

Seraphim (8): Claus, curiouskarmadog, Der Hammer, Natirasha, vollkan, Hoopla, OhGodMyLife, magisterrian
Der Hammer (7): Xylthixlm, Seraphim, tubby216, Shanba, Elmo, skitzer, Ectomancer
Tubby216 (3):

SensFan

,

Yosarian2

,

Xtoxm

OhGodMyLife (2):

farside22

,

Sir Tornado

curiouskarmadog (1):

iamausername

Not voting:

militant

.

militant - His contribution for the whole of December is 3 "still reading, will catch up" oneliners.
SensFan - Posting a bit on-site, but very little in this game.
farside22 - Very active on-site, kinda lurky and one-linerish in this game.
Sir Tornado - Declines to unvote OGML.

I'll probably be around to move my vote near deadline if it's needed. I'm going to leave it on Hammer for the time being, I haven't read through Seraph in great detail, but logically it has to be stronger than usual since there's less risk to lynching Hammer.

I have formed the opinion that lynching me actually is a good option for the town. Here is my reason. I am a Miller. {..} it is therefore that I dishonourably disarge myself and now endorse a Der Hammer lynch.

Very shortly after this, you switched to Seraph, primarily for voting you.

As stated I am a Miller, so eventually I would become a problem for town so perhaps it is time for me to go gracefully. That said, here are my thoughts on recent events. {..} Good day, and hopefully you will make the right decision. I'm confident I'll see you in Day Two!

Your attitude seems to be a bit contradictory to me. You've said multiple times that lynching you is good, but you've always backed away from it shortly afterwards, you pushed Seraph very swiftly after that quote, and now you seem to be walking the tightrope between "oh I'm a miller may as well lynch me" and "well, actually, maybe

don't

lynch me". Do you think you are good lynch, or not? If not, why have you suggested it? If so, why have you defended yourself at all, or done basically anything except self-vote and invite the hammer vote?

I also have to say that I'm not wild about how you played before claiming; if you want to do anything as an unclaimed miller, it's avoid being investigated and ideally get yourself nightkilled. The way you played would seem to make it significantly more likely to draw an investigation.

(oh yeah, I'm back, lol. I'm catching up now but as I read the post above me, claiming miller and voting for oneself is bad play)

I remember someone asking something similar, but you very specifically say "bad play" here. We're trying to lynch scum, not people who play badly; self-voting is bad for the person doing it generally, so whether or not it hurts the town depends on their alignment. I don't see any reason that self-voters are particularly more likely to be scum, and I think the timing of his claim was fine if he was a miller. I'm more bemused at how you could say claiming miller was bad play when you later (I think) advocate claiming in the first post.

76 hours left. Seraphim should strongly consider claiming next post.

Preview edit: HAI XTOXM.

[Elmo]

o.o For having 22 players and being 55 hours from deadline, this game is awfully quiet.

as far as i can tell, its all

random

scum-driven.

Fixed.

Basically.

Seraph / Der Hammer, it's in your interest to reply to 1015. Especially the former, I know you saw it since you've claimed, yet you haven't answered - why?

Hey, Vollkan, have you ever considered having two numbers in your lists, one for scuminess and one for confidence? E.g. if you've got someone who's made one post at 65, that's maybe a bit different to someone who's posting frequently and has been at 65 all game. Battle Mage at 65 is different to PJ at 65. Etc. That's how I tend to think of people, anyway. (Okay, I have a third for "level of scrutiny required", but that'd be overdoing it.)

[Elmo]

Elmo, Sera's last post was his bow out post, what more are you expecting from him?

Some kind of direct response to a direct question that might decide where my vote goes, preferably.

DH's join date is the only thing keeping me from happily drinking the WIFOM a la Yos2. But yeah, it does not seem very faked to me. Real question is, is Sepaph scum?

Xyl is an experienced player, so a policy vote purely on claim like this makes me suspicious of him.

Yeah, I noticed this too, I don't like it much. In fact, I'm pretty sure that XylTown would be dealing with anything as WIFOM as a miller claim in the proper fashion, e.g. by playing the nash equilibrium. That basically means you view it as scummy to the degree it benefits scum, which I would imagine is quite far from going all the way to a policy lynch. That seems contradictory to me. Although I can understand how he came up with the argument (and indeed he figures out my objection in 723) it seems less natural than just doing what should be familiar to him by now.

[Elmo]

Scum lynch > Miller lynch > Townie lynch, though. To vote Seraph, logically, you need to believe he's likely enough to be scum to counteract the fact that DH is (at worst) a miller. And a DH lynch could happen. On the other hand, I will be around near deadline to hammer Seraph if needs be. So there's that.

[Elmo]

My point was not that he followed a meta policy. My point was he tried to formulate a meta policy where what he does 'normally' is actually going to work better and indeed he knows to be optimal. Also, this is not really an attack on him (yeah, yeah), just something I found curious.

Claiming miller

as a falseclaim

helps scum

because it removes the possibility that they will be caught by a cop

, so the balance of WIFOM demands that claiming miller be

viewed as

inherently scummy

by the town in order to neutralize the possible benefit to scum of claiming it

.

This is what I was talking about. It's viewed as scummy, but in the class of any normal scumtell rather than demanding an immediate policy lynch. This approach works far better than lynching all claimed millers, and I'm 99% sure it's his standard way of dealing with any WIFOM situation since it's the game theoretically correct way. I'm pretty sure he's explicitly said he follows a policy like this somewhere in M.D. for a similar issue, I think it was lurking. I do understand where and why he went wrong in theorising his policy and I don't have a problem with that; the thing I can't see is why he was looking for one in the first place.

[Elmo]

but after some discussion claus could better pick out who his suspect should be.

Looks like he's trying to preemptively discredit the claimed cop...

Vote: Xylthixlm

[Elmo]

Something tubby said in the answer to my question 'clicked' and convinced me he's likely town. I'm really at a loss to explain why.

is at least part of the Xyl badness.

[Elmo]

here's a good one

[Elmo]

Iam that post has about once sentence about CKD. Is that it?

p.s. The thing about OGML in that post seems is v interesting, did he respond yet?

[Elmo]

I'm uncomfortable judging him based on that early content which, whilst scummy, is effectively too small of a "sample space" (for want of better phrasing)

vollkan you scumbucket I demand you answer my question about your list immediately!!!! stop agvoidning my questions!!!!!!!!!!!!\

p.s. why is iam scyummy?
p.p.s. did you not do another list yet or did I miss it? not like this game needs one... 50 lurking 50 lurking 50 lurking 50 lurking 50 lurking 50 lurking 50 lurking 50 lurking etc.

[Elmo]

My impression is that BM replaced out permanantly. I said I would replace in, temporarily, so that Fonz had someone in the role while he was looking for a replacement. I then changed my mind and said I'd play as long as I felt I could, and then I'd drop out and ask for replacement when "I'd had enough".

Basically the 'temp' part is that I didn't agree to be a permanant replacement, but I figured it was better than nothing. So basically you're stuck with me for a bit, yea.

Shanba I saw your Q, I haven't actually gone back and reread enough to build a case yet, I just have several random things kicking around in my head that I don't like about him right now. Cases are boring. I think wagons of consensus are win though, ^5 OGML.

[Elmo]

Shanba, I don't understand why "Elmo has not given reasons" or "multiple people find Xyl scummy independantly" would lead you to believe that.
Vollsa, that was nice and ambiguous of me - I meant "why is Iamausername scummy"?

[Elmo]

I'm not currently of the opinion that rereading will bring much new insight. Take that as you will.
Possibly in direct contradiction to the above, I really think the spontaneous groundswell around Seraphim for not very much stinks quite a bit, especially coupled with the number of people saying "oh, no, we should have lynched DH yesterday". (Yes, I know I'm voting Xyl.) I still have little real idea why a bunch of people thought Seraph was scummy enough to lynch over a claimed miller.

Having said that, I now understand Yos's stance, given a bit more thought. The simple fact is that I'm just not as convinced that DH is town, primarily because he seemed to be forever backing away from the "actually lynch me" part of his position. I could be convinced, though..?

[Elmo]

Don't you think Yos stance now is quite similar to the way he played in Dynamite Stick Mafia?

Not that I can remember, no. What do you think the similarities are?

I don't understand why people are assuming Claus is not paranoid or lying, but on balance,

unvote

,

vote

:

Natirasha

. L-1.

[Elmo]

lulz,

unvote, vote Magisterrain

Claus, your opinion is noted, but actual reasons or similar would do a lot more, considering you won't be around to push the wagon or make a case hereafter. FWIW, I disagree, if that wasn't obvious.

[Elmo]

Whoo, Adel played good. Curious what Claus had on Yos, it didn't look like anyone was doing much of anything.. he didn't look scummy to me.

Also I still have no idea why Xyl was scummy, but he was

&&

Also, can we have scum QT? ^_^

[Elmo]

He didn't make any big posts, though, he didn't do much of anything, like 90% of the game.

[Elmo]

because I ended up in way too many games at the start of this year

I thought it was this. I wasn't following very closely until I replaced in, and I don't think I reread. Didn't mean anything bad by it =)

[Elmo]

Also, "like 90% of the game" meant "like most of the rest of the players".. my point was that his behaviour wasn't unusual compared to everyone else, and wasn't unusual given the circumstances. I'm curious about the earliest point you figured he was scum, iirc it was sometime on day 1 but posting had already dropped dramatically by that point.

Oh, yeah, Yos, would you have defended Der Hammer as town? It seemed risky here with multiple scumgroups.

[Elmo]

I can only remember Claus saying YosScum. Considering how long ago, this may be memory rather than actual lack of people, but still. (I can't find anything that looks like a case apart from 673)

[Elmo]

I figured it when Xyl died; OGML was the only other person to suspect him. I think the vigkills were fine, FWIW (I assume they're what I think they are)