Mafia 104 - Revenge of the Crimson King - Game!

[Socrates]

Vote: Socrates

Since philosophers are supposed to be experts at logic, it makes sense(at least to me, to vote for a philosopher in the RVS.

premise 1: MonkeyMan voted for someone who is supposed to be good at logic.
Premise 2: People who are good at logic are assets to the town
Premise 3: voting for an asset to the town is anti-town

Conclusion: MonkeyMan is scum.

vote: MonkeyMan576

[Socrates]

Overdefensiveness is a lamesauce scum-tell if you ask me. If you are town and someone is suspicious of you, how in any way is it anti-town to respond aggressively to suspicion of someone you know is town?

Also, Monkey, was their any

actual

holes with his defense of himself that you saw?

Speaking of defending oneself, are the people who said that they are suspicious of me actually serious?

[Socrates]

Just got my wisdom teeth out. Still a little woozy. Will hope to post later.

[Socrates]

Quickly once over: Kise probably isn't a member of the Jupiter Mafia, though I guess if there are two mafia groups he could be on the other one.

Swimmer is less likely to be a scum buddy than Monkeyman based on the post where Exalt origionally voted for swimmer.

Merkabah is not a member of the jupiter mafia.

Rayfrost declared Exalt to be town earlier. Not damning, but worth noting.

[Socrates]

Glork, RF, and Solemn are my top suspects right now...

Then why are you voting for swimmer? Would you like to make a case? I can guess why all of them are on your list, but I don't know why you haven't moved your vote.

[Socrates]

Confused I had meta, my meta was wrong. This worth noting?

meh, as I said it isn't some damning piece of evidence that deserves being wagonned over, but it might be an interesting point to remember for later, as it certainly doesn't argue

against

you being exalt's scumbuddy.

If you agree with my point about swimmer, then why do you like his lynch more than Monkey? (have you said this already? I didn't check.)

[Socrates]

Glork, RF, and Solemn are my top suspects right now...

Glork and RF for buddying with Exalt(and RF was still a little over defensive in the beginning), and Solemn for his bandwagon and poor attacking.

I repeat, why are you still voting for swimmer then?

[Socrates]

I'm pretty sure I explained that Swimmer was the one sheeping off of MonkeyMan. Monkey at least attempted to explain himself and what he was thinking. Swimmer didn't explain himself properly, and then continued to fail to explain himself when I asked him to.

It seemed to me that Swimmer saw an opportunity to bandwagon somebody, took that opportunity, then had no idea how to justify himself when questioned about it

.

FYI, I was just re-reading and noticed that this isn't actually true. Swimmer voted for Ray before Monkey did. Does that change your perspective at all?

[Socrates]

I've never encountered a tracker claim before so I don't quite know how to deal with it, but it seems both confirmable and hard to fake over a long period of time, so I am fine letting Monkey live for now.

I see the case on swimmer, but Exalt being on his wagon makes me leery. I guess I could get behind a wagon on his replacment, but there wouldn't be much fire to it.

The Cyberbob suspicion I don't find unreasonable.

Re: Pads' case on Wikedest, I went and Iso'd Wikedest in a couple of his finished games and his play here seems pretty consistant with previous games. He posts a lot of questions that could be construed as fluff and whatnot. Then again, he doesn't seem to have any completed games as scum, so take that with a grain of salt.

SolemnJ clearly wasn't paying attention when he posted his vote on Monkey, as he was already voting monkey. I would love for him to make a more detailed case and explain exactly what he means by "Helpful." Seems awfully forced to me. Beyond that, he is a lurker.

Mufasa has 0 posts, Vaya has 1 post, WarWound has 2 posts. They need to either be prodded or replaced soon.

Raivann is lurking, Slicey still hasn't posted anything (but hes V/LA), Wysp still hasn't posted anything. EmpKing isn't contributing anything.

I would like to hear updated scum reads from Kise, Cyberbob, RiceballTail, and Snow_Bunny.

unvote, vote:SolemnJ

[Socrates]

I see the case on swimmer, but Exalt being on his wagon makes me leery. I guess I could get behind a wagon on his replacment, but there wouldn't be much fire to it.

Reminder, odds are there are two scum factions. There's no reason to discredit scum hunting scum.

This is true, but at minimum I feel he is unlikely to be a part of the revealed faction, while others could potentially be a part of any alignment.

How do you feel about SolemnJ?

[Socrates]

Rayfrost on the last page makes Socrates go

[Socrates]

MonkeyMan is so far the only person that has seriously attracted my attention as scummy.

quick, without thinking and reading back in the thread and going entirely off the top of your head, who would you vote?

Anybody willing to join me over here on SolemnJ? Nobody?

Where the hell is Wysp?

[Socrates]

Well, my SolemnJ vote is largely useless at this point, so I should move it.

Since we got a deadline extention I don't feel much pressure to jump on the largest bandwagon to avoid a no lynch.

I haven't had a chance to read Merk's case on cyberbob yet. I need to do that and review some other players that I am iffy about tonight.

[Socrates]

I believe that the two players needing replacement are Mufasa and SolemnJ, is that correct?

Don't forget WarWound.

[Socrates]

Okay, I read the case on Cyberbob, and I don't find much fault with it. Cyberbob's reaction to it is something though. Complete apathy with no attempt to defend himself really. Cyberbob, if you are town, why not at least

attempt

a rebuttal?

Out of the three:

Unvote, Vote: Snow Bunny

.

Does this mean you are no longer feeling a Cyberbob lynch?

@Glork: What do

you

think of those three players you tasked Rec to get a read on?

I believe that the two players needing replacement are Mufasa and SolemnJ, is that correct?

Don't forget WarWound.

Slicey also needs to be prodded.

[Socrates]

@Socrates:

I think Cyberbob has been scummy, but those three cannot be ignored.

Alright, I can accept that. My preferance of the three is Vaya BTW. (If cyberbob flips town, AT LEAST two of those three are scum from differing scum groups, you heard it here first).

I would like to hear a response from Cyberbob before I move my vote.

[Socrates]

phweet~

unvote, vote: snow_bunny

vaya hasn't posted enough to get a good read on.

SB, otoh, has done so and has ignited like fireworks into the sky~

I don't like a player that lurks the ENTIRE day and then tries to wrangle up a deadline lynch. SB has been scummy too, but not extremely so, and I REALLY don't like how Vaya did that.

[Socrates]

Hrmm... I am undecided on Bob, but my gut wants to call him genuinely apathetic town. Idono. His play could easily come from demoralized jupiter mafia, and if he is scum I bet he is from that group, but I just go uhg at the thought. I will at least give him a chance to start scumhunting. Plan on moving your vote or pushing a wagon anytime soon Cyberbob?

Yea, I still like my read on Vaya.

unvote, vote:Vaya

[Socrates]

Socrates, any explanation for your scum read on me?

phweet~

unvote, vote: snow_bunny

vaya hasn't posted enough to get a good read on.

SB, otoh, has done so and has ignited like fireworks into the sky~

I don't like a player that lurks the ENTIRE day and then tries to wrangle up a deadline lynch. SB has been scummy too, but not extremely so, and I REALLY don't like how Vaya did that.

Your last post does nothing for me.

I would be willing to get with a cyberbob lynch at deadline. I would still prefer a Vaya lynch instead.

More votes on Vaya plz.

[Socrates]

@mod:Have either Wysp or Slicey picked up their prods? (They did get prodded right?)

If they haven't, thats two more replacements right there.

I am willing to hammer as soon as Sens and Muh are caught up.

[Socrates]

Oh. I though Muh replaced one of the other people we needed replaced. (WarWound or SolemnJ) Sorry.

[Socrates]

See, now it's this kind of thing that you guys should be latching onto as well. VPB is pretty blatantly trying to set up a double lynch - I would say that he thinks I'm part of a different scum group than him and that xRECKONERx is my buddy in the same group.

But, but, that doesn't make SENSE. If he thinks Rec is your buddy, then he genuinely thinks that both you and REC are scum and actually believes what he is saying are valid tells. Weak.

Sure, merk could feasibly be scum, but this is (probably) multiscum, so that doesn't do anything to undermine the points levied against you.

Also, I have no reason to think merk is scum at this point so yea.

[Socrates]

I am having a really hard time getting into this game.

I don't think Rayfrost shouldn't have claimed, if he is telling the truth. Momentum was already so heavily shifted towards Monkey that all he accomplished was outing himself to a NK...

The obvious play here is to lynch monkeyman, since there is so much stacked against him, it is almost impossible for him to be town.

I need to re-read.

How many votes does MonkeyMan already have?

[Socrates]

I doubt we should hammer until everyone at least posts once.

I think it would be a good idea to hear who everyone thinks is Monkey's parter.

I have no idea yet, and that is why I want to re-read.

[Socrates]

Monkey, who are your picks for scum other than RayFrost?

[Socrates]

?

Who was saying that you were town, Rayfrost?

[Socrates]

eh. Claimed? Check. Discussion petered out? Check. Hammer...

vote: MonkeyMan576

Check.

Most enjoyable day ever.

Why did you not wait for all of the other players to post? Like, half of the game still hasn't checked in...

[Socrates]

I need to catch up, I have fallen behind too much.

Just right now, I still like Vaya as scum. Post more tomorrow.

[Socrates]

I have fallen behind and I am having a hard time catching up. Can someone sum up the cases on Muh and Anachie in 2 paragraphs or less each?

[Socrates]

Okay, I have found some time to read the last five pages.

I have no intention of voting Muh until we have some confirmation of a second scum team.

Annachie's 943 is turbo bad and I am willing to vote him over that by itself.

vote: Annachie

Zoraster, I notice you talk about Raivann's tunneling over Muh, but you don't really say what it means about his alignment. How much do you like him as scum because of that?

Personally, I am wondering if he is using it as a crutch to avoid participating while still having something to post about.

Raivann, Say you can't get your precious Muh lynch today, who do you vote?

I would say something about how it feels like only half of the players are actually participating, but I am guilty of that too.

[Socrates]

For what its worth, I can understand RECK forgetting what MM's claim was, due to ongoing games.

[Socrates]

I'd be okay with an Anna lynch.

@Socrates: what about Anna's 943 specifically is incredi-bad?

It was pure unadulterated OMGUS with no attempt to defend himself other than to attempt to discredit his attacker.

[Socrates]

I would suggest that we all pile on Riceballtail over the course of this page because this is just ridiculous, but I remember that he was one of the first people on the Monkey wagon and was extremely slow and reluctant to get off, so thats points against being Jupiter mafia anyway.

I'd still rather lynch Annachie

[Socrates]

@Every player not voting Annachie: Why are you not voting him?

[Socrates]

Gah, I have no idea what I am doing. I feel like I am surrounded by easy targets (Muh, Raivann, Empking for starters) and I have no idea how to seperate the bad play from the scummy play.

There was only one kill last night. This is town points for Tarhalindur, I guess. (He claimed Jailkeeper, right?) But then there is the classic, "Why is the claimed protective role still alive?" question.

The Muh wagon is still makes me go grah. If he is town, then there is DEFINATELY scum within the people that are clinging to his wagon.

Muh, is english your first language?

Just right now with no thinking behind it, I would be behind a Raivann lynch. This perpetual Muh wagon is blag.

By the way, if Muh does eventually die and flips a different scum group, then one of the people who have defended him by saying that we don't know if there are multiple groups is almost certainly scum. (Yes, I know I stayed off the wagon for just that reason, I would deserve any subsequent suspicion because of it and we would just have to cross the bridge when we get there.)

[Socrates]

Percy, you top suspect is Muh, and your next top suspect is Raivann, who has done nothing but push the Muh wagon? Huh.

Also, I feel that it is necessary to share that only one of the NK's went down on Rayfrost. We didn't have a double up on the NK's, because if we did then there would be two kill flavors listed next to his name. So either the second killer(s) forgot to send in a kill or it got prevented.

[Socrates]

Percy, you top suspect is Muh, and your next top suspect is Raivann, who has done nothing but push the Muh wagon? Huh.

Sorry, are we in multiscum, or aren't we? I've already said muh is unlikely to be Jupiter mafia, but that doesn't apply to Raivann.

@Merkabah: First paragraph is generous to muh, but I sympathise with your attitude towards lurkers. Second is fine. Third and fourth are fairly WIFOM - emphasising the unknowns in the setup and so forth to conjure up a "most likely scenario" which is just an oversimplification (imo). For example, coming out strong against a scumpartner like muh would (again, imo) be a great temptation for his buddies (if he has any). Also, I'm not suggesting that muh is guilty until proven innocent, as you imply...?

I want this "WHAT IF THERE IS TWO SCUM GROUPS!?!?!" paranoia to be put to rest for a bit.

Heres the rub. If there IS one scum group, they would be doing everything in their power to play up paranoia about the presence of a second scum group because it makes their lives MUCH easier. Essentially that can do whatever they want to various people because any normal association tells about whether or not they are town gets thrown out the window by an exclimation of "BUT THAY COULD BE UNREVEALED OH NOEZ". If there WAS two scum groups, that group would be doing everything in their power in order to downplay the existence of a second scum group, saying stuff like "We don't have confirmation of a second scum group, dammit!", because they would want their existance kept hidden for as long as possible, preferably the whole game.

The fact that everyone except Merkabah just kind of rolled with the multiscum idea is telling to me. I believe it was Glork who said earlier that a named scum faction doesn't mean anything about the presence of multiple scum groups.

Point the second: Look at our NK's. ONE of the Nk's is quite obviously looking for scum. (The brutally murdered kill flavor.) N1 was Snow_bunny, who was under intense scrutiny, N2 was DEVESTATION, who was also pretty scummy, and then N3 was Rayfrost - who I can understand someone being paranoid that he was a scum tracker or something.

BUT. The other NK flavor most certainly was not looking for scum to kill. N1 was Sensfan, N2 was Glork, probably blocked N3. (2 for 2 on power roles, I might add)

These NK's are consistant with a serial killer (or another vig) that is hunting for scum and a large scum group that is not.

I will not, I repeat, I will not lynch someone I don't think can be Jupiter mafia at this juncture.

For the sake of Irony:

We do not have confirmation of a second group, Dammit!

The alternative is that me and Merkabah are members of an unrevealed faction, and since I am not, and I think Merkabah is town, I have no alternative but to give the most epic of shrugs at the suggestion.

I will have more significant thoughts later.

[Socrates]

Just straight up asking the MOD is an undervalued action, Tar. Plus, I've seen other games that work in that fashion.

[Socrates]

That was in response to this, by the way:

Socrates needs a MUCH closer look. He's wishy-washy as hell (he's consistently couching his claims in "but it might be the other way around") and he's just dropped information I don't think he could have as town without asking the mod (and he gave us no indication that he asked the mod whether a player killed by multiple kills would show all the kill methods involved or just one; I've seen the latter used in normals before).

Also, since I believe in defending myself against accusation, I take exception to the accusation that I have been "Wishy-washy as hell". I might not have had firm ground in this game, but I have not been changing my opinions to suit the situation, and have been consistent in my reads.

---

You know, I keep forgetting about Vaya. Something HAS to be done about that player. I still stand behind everything I said about him day 1 and nothing about his play day 2 and 3 (which is to say, nothing) has seemed pro-town.

vote: Vaya

[Socrates]

Socrates, I think you're missing the point Tar was trying to make. If you did in fact ask the mod, why didn't you say it at the time? And I've definitely played in at least one game where the mod said "I'll only give one kill flavor per death, regardless of how many kills target the dead person."

...you know, I could kinda see Socrates in any faction except SK.

I didn't think it was imperative for me to cite my sources. Sorry.

Besides, both of you are missing an even bigger point. Why would scum be more likely to know this information? Its not like that stuff is typically stated in scum role PMs or anything. (Perhaps a scum would like to claim in order to correct me on this? )

So, either way, I would have had to have asked the mod about it, so it is Null at worst and trying to twist that into a scum tell is lamesauce.

Also, why don't you see me as SK?

@Kise: This game doesn't use standard flavor designations for its roles. Note that Vanillas are called Villagers.

I didn't immediately vote Vaya because I forgot about Vaya. I remembered he was in the game and I voted him.

What does everybody think about Vaya?

Mod: can you prod Vaya, please?

The remarks about Raivann hammering Cyberbob are lame.

[Socrates]

I am ambivalent about a massclaim.

I also have no problem with a Raivann lynch (as I said when the day started), but I really want something done about Vaya.

[Socrates]

Hey look, its Vaya, dodging replacement and adding nothing to the game again!

Grumble grumble grumble....

Lets gets this massclaim over with.

[Socrates]

Villager.

I think Muh is town, and Reck is iffy.

[Socrates]

Whats the current vote count?

I am fine with a Raivann lynch, but I still really really want something done about Vaya.

For now, I shall believe Muh. I also think Reck is likely town (or at least hunting for scum) based on his perceived slips.

Reck,3 players did that. Do you really think you have just caught the entire scum team with the slip that you saw? Sometimes townies just claim like that. Raivann is scummy, and I am pro a Raivann lynch, but I don't think that is as strong as you think it is.

unvote, vote: Raivann

[Socrates]

Jupiter might have changed who they sent to do the kill because they were afraid of a jailkeep by Tar.

The SK is getting desperate now. If he wants to win, he has to start hitting some scum. The Vaya kill is evidence of that.

vote: Raivann

[Socrates]

Vote:RBT

I'm feeling really apathetic right now. I like the case on RBT, blah, blah, blah.

[Socrates]

unvote

because I need to think about something first.

Question for all interested parties: Where was the unrevealed faction's kill for the first 3 nights?

What do you like about the RBT case Socrates?

I could ask you the same thing.

The bits about selectively scum hunting plus RBT's craplogic case against Tar. It strikes me as scum desperate to get rid of a player they can't deal with in any other fashion.

I need to double check this, but I also strongly disliked RBT's attack on RECK day 3. Looking back, it seems consistent with an unrevealed that hit RECK night 1 or 2 and thought they had found the opposing godfather.

Preview edit: I just checked, and RBT didn't attack Reck as strongly as I remembered him doing, but he was setting up for an attack on reck when he suddenly OMGUS'ed Pads.

[Socrates]

unvote

because I need to think about something first.

Question for all interested parties: Where was the unrevealed faction's kill for the first 3 nights?

What do you like about the RBT case Socrates?

I could ask you the same thing.

The bits about selectively scum hunting plus RBT's craplogic case against Tar. It strikes me as scum desperate to get rid of a player they can't deal with in any other fashion.

I need to double check this, but I also strongly disliked RBT's attack on RECK day 3. Looking back, it seems consistent with an unrevealed that hit RECK night 1 or 2 and thought they had found the opposing godfather.

Preview edit: I just checked, and RBT didn't attack Reck as strongly as I remembered him doing, but he was setting up for an attack on reck when he suddenly OMGUS'ed Pads.

Forget that part, for some reason I thought Merk hadn't presented the case and it was all Tar.

[Socrates]

3.

Devestation,

Town Prison Guard

, Brutally Murdered Night 2

If the Brutally murdered kill flavor is not the SK like I thought it was, but was the unrevealed's flavor, this is a strong indicator that Tar is a member of the unrevealed faction. Three guesses as to why, the first two don't count.

It is also the only kill flavor to appear every night, and it seems likely that the other ones all took aim at Tar at some point. (the only way there are so few kills).

Neither Tar nor RECK can be jupiter unless there is some kind of shenanigans going on like Jupiter targetting Tar twice in a row hoping he would protect someone else or the Jupiter no killing to fuck with the town, as the only other logical reasons for this in my head is that they targeted one and then the other nights 3 and 4. (We know from Rayfrost that shot is the jupiter kill).

[Socrates]

Ignore my remark about RBT attacking Reck, thats madness as the Jupiter mafia already has had their Godfather revealed, and he isn't NK immune:

You are a

Jupiter Mafia Godfather

You win when your faction makes up a majority of the town and nothing can prevent this from happening.

Abilities:

Godfather:

You are in charge of all Mafia activities such as kills and other actions. Any PMs you send will have final priority if there is any confusion concerning night actions. In fact, I recommend that you send me all night actions in one PMs to prevent this confusion.

Anti-Miller:

Any attempts to investigate you will fail and give the investagator a failed result.

-FACTIONAL ABILITIES REMOVED-

Reck, The only thing I can come up with that makes any sort of sense to me is that the third kill flavor is the SK who declined to kill for the first few nights in order to hide his presence or that Tar guessed correctly multiple times.

Tar, who did you protect on the first 2 nights?

[Socrates]

danakillsu, first off, before you even bother rereading, go ahead and claim. The massclaim has already happened.

I think not. I'm going to read before claiming to make sure I should claim. Trying to force a claim out of someone who just replaced and hasn't read yet? BAD xRECKONERx !

Getting a claim out of you before you have read is the best time to do it because if you are scum you won't know what to fakeclaim to get the best results, and if Reck was lieing about the massclaim someone would have called him out on it.

Claim.

[Socrates]

Slow all this discussion down people. Everybody will get a turn to talk!


I really don't like lynches that are foregone conclusions because it ruins the day since everyone just votes and then goes silent.

I don't really agree with the reasons being presented to switch off of RBT for Raivann. Raivann's silence demonstrates even further that he's guaranteed scum. There is no reason for the town to do the work of an opposing scum faction. If the opposing scum does not kill Raivann tonight, then they face the chance to lose one or members on future nights.

We should lynch RBT, who also seems like to be scum in my book, and let the rest of them sort out Raivann tonight.

I don't have much to add different from this. I have suddenly become a lot more paranoid that Tar is a member of the unrevealed faction, and if he is, I doubt RBT is too, but other than the NK's I have little evidence to support that assertion.

[Socrates]

I believe that was the hammer.

[Socrates]

Where the fuck is the shot kill flavor?

Why the fuck is Raivann still alive?

Someone needs to answer me this first and foremost before they continue any setup speculation.

Dana's entrance to the game was severely underwhelming yesterday, I am still wondering about Tar, Zoraster did not post at all during the last game day. He is still active on the site so that is extremely suspect.

Reck is town. I am willing to bet money that Tar is not the SK, and is extremely unlikely to be jupiter. Dana's slot has zero information about it. Zoraster quickhammered day 2 and lurked his ass off for pretty much the entire time other than day 3 where he seemed pretty pro-town. Raivann is very probably scum, I don't think there is much debate about that. I need to re-read pads and Wikedest, as there is almost certainly one scum between them.

This game was probably lost when Muh was Mod killed. I am still fuming about that. If that didn't happen, we probably would have gotten Raivann lynched and would have a lot less stuff to worry about.

Right now:

Town:
Me
Reck

possible unrevealed:
Tar

Possible Jupiter:
Raivann

Possible either:
Pads
Wikedest
Dana
Zoraster

More thoughts as I have them.

[Socrates]

I've been speculating about Tar scum since yesterday, and it was enough to scare me off of the RBT lynch.

I still need a good answer about the Shot flavor. Because there are only two answer that I can come up with:

1) The last jupiter is an inactive player and forgot to send in his kill.
2) Pads is right and different roles have different kill flavors and there is actually still only 1 mafia group. Supporting evidence for this is the fact that Muh's kill flavor would have been "Shot" as well, so kill flavor is not exclusive to different factions.
3) The jupiter mafia no killed for some reason.

I still don't get why Raivann is still breathing, but whatever.

if 2) is the correct answer, Raivann is the best lynch today.

As the day goes on, I find myself wanting to lynch Zoraster more and more.

What do you guys think about Zoraster?

[Socrates]

Tar and Raivann voting each other is nice. I am not ready to make a decision yet, but a Raivann lynch might be the way to go today.

@Socrates: I would support a lynch on Raivann, Wicked, danakillsu, or zoraster. Though, I honestly think I'd rather lynch zor or Wicked and let the SK/scum take care of each other. Also, I'm not sure about the various kill flavors, but didn't someone get tracked on D1? I thought we went over this sometime recently.

I think Wicked should be lynched today tbqh.

Here's what we know:

Monkey got tracked by Rayfrost to Sensfan. Sensfan was "Shot".
Monkey got lynched day 2. Someone else got "Shot" that night. We have not seen the "Shot" kill flavor since.
Muh's PGO ability had a "Shot" kill flavor, but it supposedly went unused.

This tells us this: More than one person has the "Shot" kill flavor, and that that kill flavor is not a unique faction specific kill flavor.

Conclusion the second: The second source of the "Shot" flavor has stopped killing at some point. The kill going somewhere unlucky for the scum team (Tar's jailkeep or you) is no longer a valid argument for it to have disappeared for this long.

The "Brutally murdered" kill flavor has been consistantly hitting players that other players thought were scummy (I thought Merk was obv-town and never understood the suspicion he drew, but that is no longer important). Both the "Shot" kill flavor and the "Blood loss" kill flavor have not.

One killing [group/source] has (apparently) been hunting scum (with abyssmal accuracy) while the other(s) have not.

It is in a scum team's best interest to hunt for the other scum team if they have reason to believe that they exist. So why haven't they been doing so?

Conclusion: There is only one large scum team, plus an SK? The change in kill flavor was due to a change in who the scum team sent to do the kills?

At this point I kinda want to throw the speculation out and just vote for the scummiest guy. Which would be Raivann.

[Socrates]

Conclusion: There is only one large scum team, plus an SK? The change in kill flavor was due to a change in who the scum team sent to do the kills?

Then what about 'shot' appearing twice?

*shrug* Idunno. Another goon shooting that night, he gets blocked night 3 and so they start sending someone else out to kill nights 4 and 5? Mod error? (Xyl said something earlier in thread that got me thing about that) I got nuthin.

As I said, I kinda just want to push it aside for now.

Reck, why Wicked over Raivann?

[Socrates]

Wicked has gotten by the whole game

without doing anything

, not to mention how blatantly bad his posts are. Raivann just seems like the 'buzzword' player of the game to try and lynch up. Not saying he's not scum - just saying I'd rather get a Wicked lynch right now.

Heh, you saw my new sig, didn't you?

I guess I could get behind a Wickedest lynch (Percy actually struck me as kind of scummy, thinking back, though I don't remember why), but its not like Raivann has done anything this game either.

I would like to hear Pads', Wickedest's, Zoraster's, and Dana's opinion of Raivann.

[Socrates]

Actually, I just had one of those thingamajiggers. A thought.

Hrmm....

I want to hear those opinions on Raivann soon, please.

[Socrates]

Waiting on Wickedest and Zoraster.

I have little hope that my patience will be rewarded though.

[Socrates]

Okay. Zoraster is scum so I wont bother waiting for him any longer.

There is one mafia group and Raivann is the serial killer. There was only one kill night three when Reck was shot, and then someone else has been doing the mafia's kills since. The mafia hasn't killed Raivann because he is so obviously lynch bait and the serial killer hasn't killed him because shooting himself in the face would be a poor survival strategy.

My current thinking is that the scum didn't know that Raivann was the SK either (otherwise they probably would have killed him earlier), and have just been thinking of him as their ticket to a victory in lylo.

Right now, if I had to guess, I would say the scum team is Zoraster, Wickedest, and Tar.

Notice how Zoraster's only post today was trying to prod me into voting for Raivann.

vote:Zoraster

mod: has there been a vote count recently?

[Socrates]

Why do you assume I got shot N3?

Because if Tar is mafia (as I am currently inclined to believe) then the mafia obviously wouldn't have shot him, now would they?

Actually, we only have his word about whether or not he can protect himself, which would be a fantastic thing to claim for a scumdoc to not protect anybody and not restrict the mafia's choice for a NK, and even he admits that that is a weird interpretation of the role. Lets at least see if we can get some independent confirmation of that.

MOD: can you confirm whether or not Devastator could target himself with his ability?

[Socrates]

I think of all the things that I have been talking about, Zoraster being scum is the one I am most confident about.

Dana's last post deserves a raise of the eyebrow at.

So lets get some more Zoraster votes, people.

[Socrates]

Hey tar, ignore this if you are scum, but do you realize how you should use your power tonight? I don't want to say more than absolutely necessary.

[Socrates]

Zoraster, who are the scum?

[Socrates]

Guys, Zoraster is totally playing like caught scum that thinks they are going to be lynched here, and hes trying to do... something... with Tar.

Hes not scum hunting, just trying to sort of tie himself to a different player. When I asked him who he thought was scum, he gave the absolute bare bones without a single shred of reasoning.

Reck, why do you think Zoraster is unlikely jupiter? The quickhammer on monkey day 2 is a total jupiter mafia tell because a scum that knew their buddy was caught would have motivation to cut the day short and would know that they wouldn't get much flack for it because Monkey would flip mafia.

[Socrates]

Hey tar, ignore this if you are scum, but do you realize how you should use your power tonight? I don't want to say more than absolutely necessary.

[Socrates]

Guys, Zoraster is totally playing like caught scum that thinks they are going to be lynched here, and hes trying to do... something... with Tar.

Hes not scum hunting, just trying to sort of tie himself to a different player. When I asked him who he thought was scum, he gave the absolute bare bones without a single shred of reasoning.

Reck, why do you think Zoraster is unlikely jupiter? The quickhammer on monkey day 2 is a total jupiter mafia tell because a scum that knew their buddy was caught would have motivation to cut the day short and would know that they wouldn't get much flack for it because Monkey would flip mafia.

And yet that's begging for WIFOM. Some tells are subtle and not a direct decision. If I were scum, wouldn't I want to avoid a quick hammer precisely because it'd subject me to this type of argument?

So, since you didn't answer my other question, I suppose it's too much to hope that you'll answer this, but I'll try anyway: how am I acting like "caught scum"? What exactly am I trying to do with tar? Am I trying to get him lynched? protect him from lynch? what is it.

You asked a question. I answered it, which is more than I can say for you.

Dude, I just said why you are scummy. You could feasibly claim that site problems and VLA got you during previous days, but you have come back and you still have yet to provide any real content.

AND you just dismissed my argument as WIFOM, which is incredibly scummy to me.

As I said, the Tar thing is just you trying to tie yourself to another player as you go down. You could be doing it to either a buddy or a townie, which is the entire point. The idea is to sow confusion in general.

[Socrates]

My computer imploded. LA until further notice.

[Socrates]

Blah. I found a computer.

Reck, Can you actually read all of Zoraster's posts today and tell me that those posts came from a member of the town with a straight face?

Seriously it is a big pile of scummy scummyness and he isn't a naturally scummy player like Dana (as evidenced by his day 3 play).

They are both probably scum but I am more confident about Zoraster.

In fact, look at both Wickedest's and Dana's posts as the Zoraster wagon has built. Wickedest said he thought Zoraster was scum but wanted him to be unvoted, while Dana pretty much said he would only vote Zoraster out of self preservation. At least one of those came from a scumbuddy hesitant about bussing.

Also notice the lack of a quicklynch when he reached L-1. If we are truely in Lylo, which seems to be the consensus, then the scum should have hammered him and we lose, but that didn't happen. Instead we get a lot of resistance and all of the scummy players drop off the face of the earth.

Zoraster is scum. Lynch him.

[Socrates]

Unvote; Vote: Zoraster

Socrates, you owe me a SK kill on dana tonight.

Ask Raivann. He's the SK.

[Socrates]

Someone should PM the mod.

[Socrates]

I did it.

[Socrates]

sure. Vanilla Townie. I assume you're scum?

I don't believe you, but Fuck, if true. (Last time we played the "Your lynched, whats your role?" game, he was a scumbag and just lied for the hell of it)

If zoraster is town, Then the SK MUST hit a scumbag tonight (might I suggest Dana?) and Tar MUST be town and MUST jailkeep correctly.

[Socrates]

I don't think Xyl has posted on site for a few days.

[Socrates]

Lol.

unvote, vote:dana

FYI, Zoraster isn't cleared, but dana pretty much claimed scum during this page.

Zoraster, if you ARE town, lets see some content.

[Socrates]

What happened by the way, for those that weren't paying attention, is that Reck voted for Zoraster in two nonconsecutive posts, and that screwed up people's counting.

[Socrates]

Dance scum, dance!

Deadline is in 4 days and activity is too low. Lets get this done, people.

[Socrates]

Pretty much every post he made on that page just dripps with scummyness, but if you want the absolute scummiest, its right here:

That can't be right no matter what.
xRECK unvoted if he's allowed to.

Pads is sub-optimal to both Dana and Zoraster, in my view.

I mean, he might only post once every cycle of the moon, but thats more than zoraster. I didn't like Wickedest's analysis, though I don't feel like tearing into that right now.

[Socrates]

Ask yourself this, Reck. Why would a member of the town that thought Zoraster was also town be distraught and frustrated that he wasn't actually lynched?

We are allegedly in goddamn lylo. Mislynching at all is the recipe for a town loss. Why isn't Dana hunting scum and presenting cases and doing more to defend his town reads, instead of focusing on self preservation? The answer is obvious.

Also, I was speaking colorfully. I thought a lot of his posts there were incredibly scummy and I thought the only way he could be more blatant would be if he just went "Haha, mafia wins!". Hence the phrase "pretty much"

[Socrates]

Eh, I like a dana lynch anyway. But I'm wary of how you decided to suddenly change your mind.

*Shrug* pretty much every post that was made over the course of that last page gave me the heebie jeebies.

Dana's self preservation hammer on someone he thinks is town, Zoraster's response to being hammered, Dana's extreme eagerness for the mod to end the day, and then what can only be described as frustrated disbelief in my eyes to finding out that Zoraster wasn't hammered.

Do you disagree?

[Socrates]

Back.

For those of you not paying attention: dana just did the SAME thing that Raivann did yesterday (except that he didn't count correctly). We need to lynch one of them today.

In fact, considering the numbers, I find it IMPOSSIBLE that they are not both scum from the largest faction - dana's been Chainsaw Defending Raivann (see: Tar vote yesterday)

In other news:

- zoraster is SK at worst (leaning town, but not sure, mainly because of point 2)
- Pads is probably the third member of the largest faction (mind you, he *could* just be town/SK/last Jupiter whose scumdar is nearly terminally broken... but his choice of people to attack and the ToD kill last night strongly argue towards largest faction to me). I'm not confident enough to lynch him today, however, especially given my next thought...
- Socrates has moved onto my scumdar on the last page or two... the extreme zeal he showed in wanting a zoraster lynch (while possible from a townie) is bugging me, he concluded Raivann was SK instead of Mafia (doesn't sit well with me - Mafioso trying to sneak his scummy-as-hell buddy through the day?), and he's trying to direct the jailkeeper. (Unless, of course, he's from the largest faction and wants to direct the jailkeeper away from the guy the largest faction is killing... in which case he should keep trying to direct me so we can nail him for it later.) I'll judge if/when the point comes for me to use my jailkeep on a player not named Tarhalindur, thank you very much.
- Leaning towards Wicked town at the moment.

Vote: danakillsu

- though if there's a Raivann wagon (you know, on that obvious, obvious scumbag who's only posted since the muh modkill in order to OMGUS me?) in the cards I'll join it in a heartbeat.

God dammit Tar, you will never stop a mafia kill like that! Directing the Jailkeeper is pro-town when he is so painfully misusing the role. You have completely neutralized yourself as a powerrole since the scum can just ignore you.

If you are going to protect yourself, whatever, but don't fucking announce it in thread! At least leave SOME ambiguity about who you are going to protect.

Tar, are you scum? Because you are certainly acting in a way that helps them.

[Socrates]

By the way, if Raivann

isn't

the serial killer and the real serial killer's excuse for not killing Raivann is not "I wanted to, but every time I type the word Raivann an orphan dies!" I shall track down this person in real life and STRANGLE him.

/seething rage

[Socrates]

Tar, if you are talking about what I think you are talking about, then whatever, I wont stop you (that always leaves a bad taste in my mouth), but have you at least checked with the Mod to make sure it would work that way?

[Socrates]

I have a newfound respect for Raivann, by the way.

[Socrates]

This is getting tedious.

If we end the day in a no lynch, I shall be extremely cross.

[Socrates]

People need to ask themselves what the scum's primary objective is right now.

How does the SK plan to win?
How does a mafia that doesn't include Tar plan to win?
How does a mafia that DOES include Tar plan to win?

The answer to the first question: He doesn't. Its that simple. A serial killer that is neither Reck nor Tar is simply unable to win the game with the current situation.

Thats why Raivann is so obviously the Serial killer. Go back and look at his play through out this game. He never scum hunted very hard, and then, after the mass claim, he attacked Tar and then pretty much stopped playing the game. Why? Because as long as Tar is alive, Raivann can't even hope to play for a draw, with TWO people that are essentially NK immune.

Frankly, if I was in his position I would have flaked a long time ago and I find the fact that he even continues to post at all to be fairly admirable. I would also be extremely pissed at the MOD for putting me in an essentially unwinnable game. (This very sudtly makes me doubt Tar, by the way, just because I wonder if the MOD would actually screw over the SK that way before the game even began.)

So thats the first question. How about the second?

Well, they would be doing everything in their power to try and kill either Tar or the SK, especially if they thought that they were one and the same. A little thought about the implications of what end game scenario's with a living Tar and/or SK would look like should make that obvious. Thinking about this, I went back, and if you would notice, Pads and Dana have both pushed Tar suspicions today, while in Wickedest's iso 76 Wickedest objects to Reck saying Tar shouldn't be lynched today, while Zoraster primarily spent his time trying to discredit Tar by discussing Devestator's role Pm.

So ya.

Hows about the third?

Well, they would have a lot of freedom, so that is a question that is harder to untangle. Probably something closer to typical mafia strategy, but I wouldn't expect much bussing today, as a mislynch and a found SK is pretty much a win for them (I've been kinda hesitant to push the RaivannSK issue for this very reason).

So I would expect little bussing and lots of hunting for the Serial killer.

So ya. Right now I think Tar is town, Dana is scum, Raivann is the SK, and 2 of {Wickedest, Pads, Zoraster} are scum, and I am kinda in a rut to choose between those three.

[Socrates]

upon further review of Wickedest's play today, I really think he is town. Hes been by far the most active player after Reck/me/Tar and he did have a town read on Tar today and his attack on pads (even though I don't think the reasoning is too great) seemed genuine to me.

[Socrates]

Well, Pads and Dana are scum buddies. Pads' attitude toward Wickedest makes me think the third buddy is Zoraster.

[Socrates]

I hate my life.

Well, Pad's attack on Tar makes me think Tar is not mafia, as I established yesterday.
Reck is town.
Raivann is the Serial killer.

*shrug* I guess that leaves Wickedest.

vote:Wickedest

[Socrates]

Ugh. I saw that comming from a mile away.

I guess the only worry I have at this point is whether or not Tar is mafia. If tar is town, then lynching me is fine cause then the scum can cross kill tonight and town wins! yay! But, as I site here and actually think about potential scum groups, I realize that that is actually very unlikely. I mean, 2-1-1 at this point is unlikely because that would mean the initial setup of the game had a 4 person scum group, which is just too small to make any sense.

If the setup is 2-2-1 right now, and if Raivann is the SK like I think he is, then Tar HAS to be mafia, from my point of view, but it seemed weird to me that Pad's would bus him yesterday. Then again, a wagon on Tar would have been unlikely to go anywhere so he would have been a safe bus (did Pad's ever actually vote Tar?), and Wickedest never supported a Tar lynch though he kept his options open, which is pretty standard play for a scum to act towards their buddy.

Wickedest is going to claim SK in his next post, as per Tar's coaching, and I imagine that he will vote me.

Hey, Tar, why vote me over Raivann?

[Socrates]

Mod:

In a bulletproof-mafia endgame, would you end the game in a draw or a mafia win?

[Socrates]

Bolded and reworded for clarity.

Mod:

In a 1 bulletproof townie and 1 mafia endgame, would you end the game in a draw or a mafia win?

I am going to need the mod to answer this before I know how respond to tar.

[Socrates]

Oh, sniped. Okay, so there's ONE scum faction.

Exalt, Monkeyman, and Pads are the only flips, correct?

Yes.

[Socrates]

So I don't get it. There's pretty much no way there's anything but two mafiosos left - which means there was three yesterday. Three mafiosos, two townies, and a SK... why didn't mafia win yesterday?

And can someone explain this "Kingmaker" finish? Is there

no way

for town to win this?

Heres how I see it: Yesterday there were 8 people left, 4 townies, 3 mafioso's, and 1 serial killer. Since neither anti-town group had a majority the game continues. We lynched Dana: 3 townies, 3 mafioso's, 1 serial killer. the serial killer still needs to be delt with to ensure a scum victory. The Serial killer hits a scumbag with his night kill, and the scum shoot Zoraster. Now we sit at 2-2-1, with two townies (insert obligatory insistance that I am one of them here), two scumbags, and the serial killer.

We are obviously going to lynch 1 of me/Wickedest/Raivann today.

If we lynch a mafioso (wickedest), either both the mafia (Tar) and the SK (Raivann) shoot me, forcing a 1-1-1 end game, which will end in a draw for all three parties or just the mafia and the town if the SK isn't NK immune, OR the Raivann shoots me (I am the only non NK immune person he can target) and Tar shoots Raivann, which would lead directly to the 1 mafia - you end game that leads to a draw.

(BTW, Raivann, help to town out tonight by no-killing tonight if we lynch mafia)

If we lynch a townie (me), then Raivann shoots wickedest tonight and Tar/Wickedest shoot Raivann, we get the same 1 mafia- you end game.

If we lynch the SK (Raivann), then the scum kill me and win the game that night.

So yea, with Spyrex's clarification, this game is going to end in a draw so long as we don't lynch the SK.

[Socrates]

We can also, if you are willing, Reck, lynch Tarscum and hope for a scum cross kill. Thats another viable way to win the game.

[Socrates]

By the way, I am REALLY looking forward to Wickedest's next post.

Tar might not realize this, but he just exposed himself as mafia by the scum's gambit to claim SK.

I will explain why after we see whether or not Wickedest actually does claim SK.

[Socrates]

My biggest problem is this - if Tar is scum prison guard, he can continue self-protecting. The only way to deal with him is to lynch him.

2-2-1. Options (someone tell me if I missed anything):

We lynch scum today. SK shoots scum overnight, scum shoot townie, 1SK to 1town, SK win.
We lynch scum today. SK shoots town overnight, scum shoot SK, 1scum to 1town, scum win.

We lynch town today. SK shoots scum overnight, scum shoot townie, 1scum to 1SK, draw.
We lynch town today. SK shoots town overnight, scum shoot SK, 1scum to 1town, scum win.

We lynch SK today. Scum shoot town overnight. 2scum to 1 town, scum win.

So basically, there is literally NO way for town to win this, as far as I can see. Fucking a. So would we rather risk a draw or what. Fucking shit. I can't decide who the remaining scums are.

I thought you were bulletproof?

We lynch tar, and the last mafia and the SK cross kill, and then the town wins.

Now that I have thought about it some more, I truely do think that that is the best plan for victory.

unvote, vote:Tar

[Socrates]

Explain how Tar exposed himself as mafia. Now.

I tipped my hand, and I shouldn't have said anything and waited for Wickedest to post, but I got too excited.

If Wickedest actually tried to claim SK and then voted me, that would prove that he is not truely the SK, because the SK MUST try to lynch Tar today. This is because the ONLY POSSIBLE way for the SK to win (or even draw the game), is by Tar being mafia and getting lynched, he shoots the remaining scumbag while that scumbag misses him and then endgame you for the draw. Every other scenario (that I can think of) leads to an out and out loss for him.

The reason that this would have exposed Tar is the fact that he was so transparently setting up the fake SK claim for his buddy, and it would be even more obvious once I showed why Wickedest was mafia.

But alas, I spoke too early.

[Socrates]

WTF?

So there was inconsistant versions of investigation immune in a game where the only investigative ability was a one shot? That's rediculous.

[Socrates]

I failed SO hard this game. I mean, I championed three townie lynches in a row while defending one scumbag from a lynch while calling the other one town.

If I ever feel that my ego is starting to get too big, I shall just re-read the last 2 days of this game.

I feel this would have been a MUCH different game if Muh didn't get mod killed. At least that would have meant that Raivann would be lynched instead.

Also, what was up with the inconsistant NK flavor? And can we see the Serial Killer role PM? I am still frustrated about how Reck got False confirmed.