Oldy Mafia (Game Over, who won?)

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Vote: Glrok

Let's get a wagon going!

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Can I please get the mile-high rundown on this lot please:
4) Shanba
9) Lord Gurgi
10) Untrod Tripod
11) Ythill
14) Ectomancer

Just noticed the word mile-high. I assume that means "in terms of Colorado Avalanche players".
4) Ryan O'Reilly (I was going to go Matt Duchene in honour of your recent scrap with Zerofang and Duchene's fight with Sobotka, but I wasn't sure whether it was your first scrap, Shanba)
9) Scott Hannan
10) Adam Foote
11) John-Michael Liles
14) Peter Budaj

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Why isn't Glrok dead yet?

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*hops*

Unvote, vote: CTD

Blarg, with me!

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Hey ces, can we vote ythill or yos instead of ctd?

Voting yos is rarely productive. I wouldn't be opposed to an ythillvote, but I'd prefer keeping it on CTD for now.

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Ecto-Ythill argument is boring.

Unvote, vote: Untrod Tripod

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that kind of very early game budding/alliance forming like he was doing with ces in that vote is cool in scumchat games, but seems at least somewhat scummy this early in a forum game.

You're just a buzzkill.

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Yeah, Shanba, explain (and including an ectoplasm-ectoscum pun in your explanation would be appreciation.

Unvote, vote: Ectomancer

(:goodposting: by stark and Ecto's response seems to intentionally focus on the barb in order to avoid engaging with its content.)

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Assigning out-of-game consequences to in-game actions and/or reads is bullshit anyway. I would've said no just as quickly.

FoS: Ythill

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Indeed. It's a statement of fact.

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Ythill + Ecto looks good.

Ythill, would you ever go overboard in connecting yourself to a partner in a sort of refuge in audacity?

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Hey Yosarian, take it from me: there's no reason to be voting for chamber currently. Try voting for Ectoplascum instead.

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I just noticed that you failed to answer my question, Ythill. Please do so.

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Yarr, Channel! Now both my Face-to-Face scumbuddies are here.

Hey, Channel, go vote Ectomancer. Both Glrok and I have determined that he's scum.

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Not sure yet. I had Ythill as a major suspect for a while, but I feel he's more misguided than scummy currently. He's still probably the best bet along with UT/Channel.

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We're not buddying. We're just both awesome.

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Yosarian2's level of suspicion of chamber seems way too high. Chamber looks slightly pro-town to me. Switch to Ectoscum like all the cool kids, Yos.

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Finally.

@Ythill, I don't think it's all that significant really. More likely to be an amusing coincidence than a long-term trend in my opinion. (Although it could, of course, mean that I'm an awesome bandwagonner.)

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Mert, Glork, CES, Yos, DGB, why specifically are you voting Ecto?

The same reasons why I originally switched my vote to him, just on a broader scale. Yos2 and Ecto's recent crossvoting looks like distancing, too.

Fritz and CES, is the guy scum?

Yes.

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2 scum groups makes sense given 18 players, but I don't believe there's anything in the rules.

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Nuh-uh. Town doesn't win with an SK still around. So it pretty much excludes an SK.

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But then again, there could be a 4-5 member mafia. Why two teams?

Most common balance is 1 in 4 scum if there's one scum group and 1 in 3 if there are 2. 18 is 2 away from a multiple of 4 whereas it's a multiple of 3. We could be dealing with a weaker or stronger town (I consider the former to be more likely), but 2 scum groups does fit rather well.

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Glrok is bad at parsing stuff.

DGb, you're not getting that, so don't bother.

Everyone, 2 days to go. Ectomancerlynch is go!

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Shush.

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I outlined here how MBL was using indirect methods of attack. I explained why attacking a correllary of an argument and not the case itself is a mark of scum. He avoided commenting on whether the scum assessment on Gurgi was valid, not valid, pompous air, nothing.
None of you fuckers questioned me about that, or him about that.

It's 'cause your attack sucks in a transparent way. I'm not seeing any real attempt to judge whether MBL's assessment of the situation is reasonable and you seem to think that attacking you instead of discussing some silly "situational read" you had is scummy - it's not and the two things are pretty much unrelated anyhow. The Mert-Gurgi asymmetry struck me too in your original "situational read"; you didn't bring up fishing for power roles (although it's certainly a reasonable explanation of facts presented) and indirect defense only makes sense if they're scum buddies. The lack of mention of Mert is also troublesome in the sense that it's way harder to parse your "short-hand" if you don't even mention all the players. Something strikes false about the whole situational read thingamajig you presented.

And Ecto, distancing from Yos2 makes perfect sense or your vote could've simply been to pre-empt the inevitable Yos2 vote and make it look like your vote caused it.

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P.S. Glrok and DrippingGoofball, you do realise deadline's 2 days from now, right?

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You did not bring up fishing. You're quoting your own attack on MBL there, not the original post.

P.S. I believe I am allowed to think more than I post, Ecto.

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The theory of Gurgiscum did not come from a theory of MertScum. It came from a theory of Fritztown and if you dont know the difference, just quit.

So,

assuming Fritztown

, its my feeling that a

scum buddy

(or perhaps just scum) will not want to allow a player to make a flat statement like "This guy is probably scum" without forcing them to elaborate on it somehow,

if only to flush out possible power roles.

Italics mine. It doesn't matter what you started with; you were clearly considering a Mert-Gurgi partnership.

Liar. There's the quote from the original post and here's the original post again with it bolded.

Okay, so I missed it. My bad. I have no problem believing MBL missed it too; it certainly wasn't the focus of that post. Either way, your attack on MBL falls flat on its face.

Either he did and didnt say it (which is scummy as hell), or he went back and made this assessment recently and is posting it as IF he held those thoughts the entire time which is ALSO scummy.

What about this? I had the general gist of in my head at the time in fragmented thoughts and didn't feel like going into it (quite possibly I was feeling sleepy or lazy). Prompted, I give it some more thought, my thoughts have had some time to coalesce into a coherent point and I post it. That sounds like a reasonable explanation of events which doesn't involve me making any weird decisions (such as pretending to have held opinions in the past for no quantifiable gain). So, uh, nice false dilemma. Furthermore, I very much dispute that the former action is scummy as hell. It's certainly considered weird here, but I don't see scum motivation behind not posting it - I often get criticised for not providing enough content and the argument is sound.

I think you're in claim range gogogo.

1+1=2, not 8. Sorry, inHim, I'm a mathematician.

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He suddenly has all these revelations about the situation back then, I mean SRSLY detailed, thought out opinions, yet he never said a damn word back then. Am I to believe that crap? Is that town? He's a scumbag.

Still haven't heard why I'd act that way. If I had the thought back then, why didn't I post it then? If I had the thought recently, why wouldn't I just claim to have thought of it just now? I've given an explanation of what happened; you're just saying that there's something weird going on, but you don't seem to be digging any deeper.

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The explanation I was referring to was this one:

I had the general gist of in my head at the time in fragmented thoughts and didn't feel like going into it (quite possibly I was feeling sleepy or lazy). Prompted, I give it some more thought, my thoughts have had some time to coalesce into a coherent point and I post it.

Which I gave in the post between the two you quoted, the one you ignored.

P.S. I've given more reasons for being on your wagon.
P.P.S. Not swayed by doc claim.

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Firstly, the first quote has the context of "SRSLY detailed, thought out opinions" which I was replying to. Secondly, I would consider my explanation a good answer to the question; the point I was making was that you weren't answering those questions and just considering the situation superficially. My point is exactly that if you dig deeper, the only reasonable explanation is the one I gave, which is pretty clearly alignment-neutral.

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@Ecto, the argument made in stark's post was implied to be part of why I was voting for you. And although the oversight certainly changes things, I still find the attack on MBL thoroughly unconvincing.

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Unvote, vote: inHim

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Unvote, vote: Mert

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You just have the wrong opinion. Mertlynch is the only viable course of action.

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Or I will kick a puppy.

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I don't really think jumping on a lurker lynch would really be appropriate coming from me.

Lame reason. Hypocricy is irrelevant.

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Or it would just mean you need a certain amount of people who are willing to sheep in a game.

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Vote: Yosarian2

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Because chamber hasn't done anything to suggest he's scum, Yos.

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I'm sure most, if not all, of us had people we considered better wagons than Mert. That's how deadline compromise lynches work.

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That would be 50, DGb.

P.S. VC analysis is counterproductive.

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200/8*2=50, not 25, DGb.

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Also, I found with experience that taking off-wagon players into consideration made the scumputer work worse, not better. So I've stopped doing that altogether.

So the fact that without it your VC analysis is just a veiled way of going after bandwagonners doesn't bother you? I'm sympathetic to the notion that excessive bandwagonning can be a scum tell, but this is no way of applying that tell. Do you deny that I would end up high on your list every game simply as a result of my playstyle?

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DrippingGoofball, your early posts today seem to imply that your vote for me was based on VC analysis yet you admit quite readily that me getting lots of points from your scumputer can not be a serious indicator of my alignment and if anything, you are pushing a policy lynch. How do you explain this apparent contradiction?

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he withdrew from saying gurgi was "1 point scummy" to "1/2 point scummy"

There was a definite lack of follow-up, but his shorthand already had "half a point" in it.

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He switched his vote quite a bit later, Poro.

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There is no contradiction. The scumputer often reveals culpability in players that don't appear to be scummy, behaviorally speaking. I believe you are one of those instances. I never said that your high rank in the scumputer was not a serious indicator of your alignment. I believe it's a better indicator of your alignment than your behavior, which is opaque.

Don't pretend you don't know what your scumputer does. Your scumputer is picking up on my bandwagonning ie. my behaviour!

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Anyone who claims I got prodded, is lying.

A quick iso of inHim leaves me apathetic regarding the inHimwagon. I need to make some time for this game and do a re-read.

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Ether replaces stark.

Unvote, vote: Shanba

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So your hypothesis is that in this game of veteran scumhunters, all of the D1 wagons were on town? That's not elementary, it's preposterous.

You are bad at probability. This is a classic example of mixing a priori and a posteriori reasoning. It may sound preposterous on the face of it, but if you assume all the other wagons were on town, then yes, it's very much plausible that each wagon was wrong. You need some sort of mechanism that causes a correlation between the alignments of the wagonees and I sure as hell don't see one.

Unvote, vote: Channel

, I have faith in chamber and my Shanbavote didn't seem to draw any reactions. Boo.

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@Ythill, no, you don't have to assume random votes. The logic works as stated.

Ces: your vote on me was purely for reactions? What sorts of reactions were you expecting/hoping for? Isn't not reacting in itself a reaction?

No; unspecified; yes, but not a very useful one.

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Or, you could vig yourself.

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@Shanba, my vote is mainly reactions with a side dish of "case on him has merit".

After I take care of CES (the time for players to register their protests is NOW), you're next down the scumputer list.

I'd like to formally register a protest: nibblers are an endangered species.

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The fish commands you not to.

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Why should l listen to the fish?

It's a town fish.

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You haven't missed any claims.

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I've read up to page 51. 1184 was mucho convincing.

Unvote, vote: Yos

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Dammit, people, post less near Christmas. I get like 1 hour per 2 days at best and you have to go and keep on posting.

Glrok, two things: I would've lynched you at endgame in Linked Role and I'm not sure you bussed me in Space Monkeys; Thok had a "guilty" on me.

Yos' comments about dealing with Ecto in 1446 strike a chord; he was quite frustrating to deal with. I don't like inHim's willingness to vote for Yos on page53.

Unvote, vote: inHim

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I tend to think all 3 are town too.

This nurse fake-claim strikes me as an attempt by scum to do something sufficiently outlandish that people might change their mind over it - the stated reason is exceedingly lame and feels retrofitted to the situation. If I really want someone answer a question, posting in all-caps and/or bold will generally get the job done. I want inHim lynched.

I think there was a question posed to me on page ~60, but I've forgotten the exact details. I'll look for it if I have the time.

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Where is he anyway? Stuck in Lurkville?

No worries, DrippingGoofball. I've returned from provincial France and will be caught up in no time.

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I didn't get it, Drummers. I don't watch all that much Futurama either despite the Nibbler.

InHim just looks worse now and Yos looks better: my vote ain't moving.

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No, my Limited Access is over, so I'll probably get a bunch more posts in before then.

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It's because I've never convinced you of anything. I'm betting on inHim being scum and you changing your mind 'cause of it. I tried talking to you about VCA analysis earlier and you just danced verbal circles around me instead of engaging; it was utterly pointless.

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I'm active now because I have access to my computer and I already explained what I'm doing to prevent this vigging; you calling my previous attempt at reasonable argument dismissal only strengthens my conviction that talking to you isn't going to save me.

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I don't believe anyone had a town read on me that game, DGb; just null reads and #3s on suspicion lists (and the set-up wasn't originally called Too Much Scum for nothing). People rarely think I'm town when I'm really scum without role- or bus-based motivation.

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Explain this discrepancy, MBL:

CES, anything besides inHim's Yos vote bother you about him? You were fine with his D1 play, and so was I to some extent, or I'd have jumped on his wagon at the end of yesterday.

CES has been pretty lazy but wanted inHim dead at deadline yesterday and again today.

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Vote: Shanba

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How is it a point in my favour?

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Then don't. The vig probably did kill Yos though.

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Unvote, vote: HackerHuck

, gogo quicklynch.

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I dare you to vote for HackerHuck right now, Channel.

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Are you being dense on purpose, Glrok?

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Unvote, vote: Shanba

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That's an easy endgame - you lynch Channel. And I'm not wagonning.

P.S. I'm calling Glrok-Shanba.

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What is stupid?

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Glork and Shanba are both very clearly town. I can try to compare Shanba's play here to what he did in Boost, but the tl;dr is that he always pulls this shit, and he's pretty obvsincere when he does show up.

Case against Glrok: 1) He hasn't caught scum yet, 2) Gut (#1927 e.g. is way too nice), 3) the CTD-"known scums" altercation is hella stupid, 4) he's clearly bussing Shanba. Case against Shanba: 1) He's clearly being bussed by Glrok (behavioral + Yos flipped town and Glrok tends to bus), 2) If Glrok isn't scum, then there's still a good chance of Shanba being scum on account of Glrok being a good scumhunter.

Why aren't you voting HackerHuck?

The initial impulse to unvote was based on the fact that he seemed to have known that Ythill was the real vig; I don't feel that as strongly now given he sort of brings it up again in #1933. I'm reconsidering currently; how sure are you that Shanba is town?

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Elaborate on the Glork/Crash argument?

I think Crash asked a legitimate question even if the answer is somewhat more obvious. I've played with plenty of players who say stuff like "X is scum." instead of "I think X is suspicious." but Glrok's nonchalantly calling them known scums really does take it a bit further. I don't see why Glrok doesn't recognise that; I haven't seen Glrok posit any scum motivation for CTD to ask that question and I don't see why Glrok thinks his having it done before is relevant.

Your use of Burden of Proficiency is especially laughable, considering your own voting record. Get past the early-game silliness, and you've been on Ecto(town), FoS'd Ythill (town), inHm (town), Mert (town), back to Yos (town), Shanba (probably scum), CDB (probably scum), but then when it really mattered, back to Yos/inHim, Today you've flipflopped between HH (town) and Shanba.... with a little Glork (town) on the side.

If you remove Ythill (a Day 1 FoS based on a clash of playstyles) and Mert (deadline), then you get 2/7 which isn't bad - if there are 4 scum, it's better than random AND that's from the perspective of one of my main suspects.

P.S. Fun fact: I've gone after a partner on Day 1 in each of my last 3 games as scum.

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Why did it take CES so long to get back on the Yos-wagon?

Due to me not being able to get on for nearly 3 days right around the time - the argument that convinced me to switch back wasn't yet made when I left.

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"How is my play as scum different from my play in this game?"

I tend to think how my actions will affect how people see me more as scum - I don't see myself belatedly bringing up that point against Ecto or arguing with the VCA as scum. Other than that I can't think of any significant differences; I can emulate my own playstyle fairly well as scum.

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CES! How come you're still voting Shanba?

Nothing has changed.

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Because either Glrok is town and I should sheep him or he's scum and he's likely bussing Shanba (Yos flipping town being relevant here) combined with an absence of town tells.

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Like, I have put serious spadework into these discussions too. It's not obviously untrue, if it were fucking obviously untrue then I wouldn't be fucking saying it would I.

I think Shanba was legitimately annoyed and used that.

Let's ask Shanba: could you've typed something like that as scum, Shanba?

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Shanba is obvious Glrokpartner, Ythill, please.

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Glork, no chance you have any clue how to read CES? 'Cause I sure as hell don't.

You do realise he'd never answer no to this question, right?

P.S. signs point to Glrok's cop claim being truthful, which reduces the chance of Shanba being scum, but with the innocent on HH, I think I'll just sheep Glrok for now.

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Why the early claim Glork? I saw what you said, but we just started day and Ythill wasn't necessarily riding you that hard.

CES - why does Glork Cop = Shanba likely town?

Not likely town - it just became likelier. I got the feeling that Glrok was bussing Shanba based on behaviour and Glrok's other suspects flipping town which according to sample calculations gave Shanba a 2/3rds chance of being scum if Glrok was.

Unvote, vote: Glrok

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Why insane, Ether, and not naive? If Glrok is a non-sane cop, naive is the best explanation (also: less swingy).

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You're right, MBL, I was probably too quick there; reading Glrok's iso as per #2086 undermines the quotes ythill pulled up.

Unvote

, I'll have to think about this.

I'd also like to see a full accounting of why he chose to investigate HH.

Preview Edit: Yes. Null.

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Um, no it's not? You'd think there'd be a strongish information role somewhere. Naïve cop + one-shot cop + watcher is getting pretty convoluted for Patrick.

Not putting a strongish information role into an invitational with 4 out of 18 scum (which I agree is most likely) strikes me as entirely reasonable.

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Still waiting for you to explain the N2 HH investigation, Glrok. The claiming to explain a discrepancy is nice though; do you remember me doing that in Linked Role?

P.S. Shanba really needs to post.

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Shanba should answer this question.

Glrok should answer the questions posed to to him in 2116 and 2117.

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I'm going to go with a

Vote: ChannelDelibird

.

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Are you considering the possibility of Glrok being naive or insane, Ythill, 'cause I didn't see it?

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Even if we grant you double those odds and throw in another 5% for GF theories, there is still an 84% chance that one of you/Glork is scum. You claim to know that you are town. How can you be so certain that he is

Bzzt. Wrong. In your little scenario (and frankly I don't find it all that credible that we have two sane cop-types) there are either 3 or 4 scum on the wagon and you should adjust your probability distribution accordingly (and this will

always

produce a lower answer.

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Math is as innocent as a newborn babe - there's no excuse for being terrible at math.

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So hey, I remembered that this was a normal and non-sane cops are banned by normal guidelines. I checked with Patrick to be sure: if Glrok is a cop, he is sane.

I don't think Pat would put 2 cops in a set-up (and CTD's claim is mucho credible) whereas 1-shot cop, 2-shot vig, doc, supersaint vs. 4 scum sounds balanced.

Unvote, vote: Glrok

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I sure as hell don't think he'd put a 1-shot cop and a naive/insane cop in the game, as that combo might be even worse than a couple of vanillas for the town.

Way to read my post, dude. It's not a matter of thinking; it's a matter of knowing.

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Another mislynch and we have to lynch right every single day, Shanba. I'd rather go for the best lynch possible right now. Not to mention that cop+doc tends to come with a mafia RB.

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I'm not that bad at maths. 1/18 that Shan drew GF. 1/15 that he was then targeted by CTD.

You are

that

bad. Those are the odds of CTD investigating Shanba AND Shanba being the GF, not the odds of CTD investigating the gf. Including irrelevant a posteriori specifics is always going to drive the probability down; it's like throwing a 1 million sided die and concluding it was framed because the result was too unlikely.

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Not useful, Drummers.

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I didn't expect that would be helpful, CES, since I said that I don't have anything to add. Thanks though.

My position is that you should have something to add.

Maybe, ces, but I'm not sure it even matters. I mean, if we lynched glork and he came up town cop, I'd assume we lynch whoever was going to be our compromise candidate today - that is, prozac. Like, I don't see the info from that lynch changing anything. And in that situation, it's clearly better to have lynched prozac first as we have an extra cop investigation. If glork is scum, then maybe one of the "off limit innocents" gets lynched instead, or maybe the info form that lynch leads to a differnt lynch, but I'm far from certain about that; we may well still end up lynching prozac anyway. If we're going to definitively 100% lynch prozac and glork, it clearly makes sense to lynch prozac first and glork second. If you think the info we gain from lynching glork will mean that we don't lynch prozac tomorrow, then there's value in lynching glork first. But I'm not entirely convinced that's the case.

Hrm. CES, who do you think would be a likely Glorkscum partner? Also, I totally agree with massclaim. Ideally I want ythill or ctd to pick the order as I have faith in their claims.

My Top 2 for Glrokpartner is currently HH and Channel - considering the amount of HHhate at the start of day, I most definitely do feel there's a good chance it'll affect our lynches.

(also as an afterthought, I'm getting increasingly freaked out by people setting me up as a godfather already. Both hackerhuck and mbl have done it. Errrrgh... I doubt both are scum under any circumstances (glork town only one can be gf, glrok scum he cleared two of his buddies really?), but it's certainly making me antsy. I don't want to be lynched as a cop confirmed innocent to lose the game, that would suck donkey balls, and if scum think I'm vulnerable under that kind of reasoning, they'd probably start pushing it soon.)

I could totally see you as GF too, just fyi, but I think of that as more of a 3p endgame consideration.

I'm liking CES less and less this page, as he's just correcting people.

Then people should stop making silly mistakes.

I was going to say that chamber is as big a lurker as any of those, but then I realised that he actually has more posts than me. How the hell did that happen.

His conversations with Ether (or attempts at).

Since, assuming Glork is town, there are likely at least three scum in {CES, chamber, CDB, Porochaz, Gurgi}.

Glrok is totes scum though.

We should totally do a mass claim, now that I think about it. Ythill, make a list.

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What do you have against me, Ether?

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Also, if we get confirmation of a scum RB at some point, CES becomes all but mod-confirmed town.

If scum believed DGB was the vig (which seems likely) and there's a scum rb and I were scum, then the RB would've targetted DGb, which wouldn't have had any effect.

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Probably wouldn't be a bad time to no-lynch, no.

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Way to forget that, Glrok. And no, I wouldn't consider not getting nightkilled a strike against you; it's obvious you're a likely lynch. If you're town, you should be all over this: either you get nightkilled instead of mislynched or you get a free extra investigation.

You are so scum.

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That whole logical construct was awkward.

The word is awesome. I can't help if I make the vote that maximises the win according to my logic.

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Shanba.

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I'm a VT.

Glrok still needs to die.

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I won't hold it against you if you confess, Glrok. You've already done it once anyway so you shouldn't be mocked that much.

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Why isn't Glrok dead yet?

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Given all the vt claims I wouldn't expect a roleblocker unless Glrok is town. (Note that Glrokscum would probably assume cop was a safe claim if you assume no RB + dead doc in Ecto.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Please remove the second exclamation mark from the title, Patrick. It is undignified.

Vote: HackerHuck

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Ether, why would you think that CES would kill anyone except the practically confirmed innocent? And why would you think that on suggesting such a thing, he wouldn't just be overruled by his buddies?

Do you think CTD will be killed Tonight? If yes, don't you agree that scum could reasonably switch the Ythill and CTD kills?

P.S. I'm waiting for HackerHuck to get strung up.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, he is, but I don't think that would ever come up.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES, I haven't seen you give a reason why you're voting for HackerHuck. Can you please give a brief summary?

Flying under the radar, lurking, gut, the Glrok innocent result.

PS. This is, in and of itself, a valid reason to lynch Porochaz. Discuss.

No.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glork calls him pretty obviously protown in 1112, not sure what to make of that.

Do you think he would make that up?

Glork says Prozac is a better vig kill than CES - presumably prefers CES, who's not had problems keeping up with the game, alive as scumbuddy than Prozac (no offence, Prozac). Further suggests Glork-HH-Prozac-CES

When did he say this? Do you think Glrok thought it likely that his advice would be followed?

Glork's 1927 does kinda look like an appeal to CES to help him out, considering the brewing HH and Prozac wagons.

Do you think the fact that this pretty soon after day-start is relevant?

The no lynch business is a point against CES

Why?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm going to call you Snorlax.

CTD has claimed one-shot Cop with an innocent on Shanba. Glrok claimed Cop with innocents on MBL and HH. A whole bunch of people (everyone else?) claimed VT.

The main suspects currently are HH, Channel and Prozac, so you should probably pay extra attention to them during the re-read (they're easy to miss!).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yeah, they both claimed vig. Ecto also claimed doc before dying.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, you yourself readily admit that many skilled players have trouble reading you, so at that stage I think it would be in Glork's interests to state that he had got a read on you and that it was very positive (remember Glork was widely considered protown at that stage).

It's definitely something he could do as scum, but I think the only reason it was credible is that several other players also had town reads on me. Just claiming a null read seems like the simplest course of action (although I have to admit that it might be too much for Glrok's ego.)

This is post 1600, mid-late Day 2. DGB was advertising herself as a vig and she was heavily pro-town on Glork, so it seems reasonable to me that he would say it in case his advice was followed.

Bzzt. False. Glrok was one of her top suspects in #1231 and receives no positive mentions following that post. She also showed no signs of being willing to vig Porochaz (the pretext for Glrok's comment appears to be an inHim-post.) Furthermore, I think he's pretty much forced to hold that opinion given his previous posts and that on the whole he did very little to dissuade DGb from vigging me (contrast him with Yos for example).

Not really, no. Why do you ask?

I would imagine that'd be the time that saw the least in-thread communication between scum buddies.

No lynch was pretty obviously a bad idea considering Glork was so obviously a scumbag in that situation plus there being people like Prozac and, indeed, myself, that a whole bunch of people really wanted to see dead. Being in favour of it was not protown.

There was obviously resistance to the idea of lynching a claimed cop in a non-LyLo situation. In that sense I felt no-lynch was a compromise between the two camps which would've made Glrok more lynchable the next Day (note that Poro and Glrok were tied in votes at the time; before Glrok's slip, his lynch that Day was far from set in stone). How exactly is no-lynch supposed to have lead to a Porochazlynch? You seem to be thinking that Glrok was more likely to be lynched that Day because he was.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I was open to a no-lynch because I felt that 1) it didn't hurt and 2) it would take some bite out of the "give potential Glrokcop extra investigations" countermovement. I wanted Glrok dead first because he was my main suspect. I'm not sure why you're comparing no-lynch to a Porochazlynch since I don't see no-lynch as taking the place of a normal lynch.

(In any case I did misunderstand you at first, because I didn't realise the argument was specifally for a Glrok-CES-Porochaz triumvirate.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No-lynching when at even numbers post-mass claim is not anti-town.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Like getting people to vote for HackerHuck instead of making pointless MBLvotes.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't keep track of everyone's suspicions.

MBL is town.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I didn't know why you have a hate-on against no-lynch. I'd be in favour of it right now if the obvious CTDkill didn't make it a waste of time.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

*waits for HackerHuck to die*

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I thought Poro was supposed to be suspicious of me.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You're not that scary, Ether. That's a silly reason to think someone is town.

What we need right now, is for 2 people to shape up and vote HackerHuck.

Why do you think my wagon has stalled?

'Cause you're scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Voting would totally be appropriate, just fyi, Zorblag.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If I'm scum, then why has my wagon stalled?

'Cause scum would be more willing to jump on a wagon here if it was on a townie (note that signs point to the wagon being townie-driven).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Townie-driven =/= exclusively townie. I think you and 'Chaz are scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Do you think HH would escape getting lynched tomorrow if we lynched Channel today and he turned up town, MBL?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't buy what MBL is serving, but I could see a HH-Channel-Prozac. The main problem I have with it is that Channel was arguing for HH-CES-Prozac at some point which is a little odd in that situation.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

@MBl, the ChannelTown /\ HHScum --> Contradiction theory.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The mindset of waiting till deadline kills games.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

(My comment: the Glork result is a horrid reason to tack on, and without it, CES's read could just as easily be on CDB or Poro)

Not from my perspective - the gut part doesn't translate. And I feel I should've expanded on the "Glrok innocent result" before, but I'll do it now. Part of it is that I feel fairly confident that you're town and I tend to think that going with 1 fake innocent was the right play for Glrokscum considering how close to LyLo we were.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Guys, can we get a HHlynch already?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Finally.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vote: No Lynch

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You don't seem to understand "no conversation", MBL.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Boo.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Does anybody feel the need to drag this out or can we just start with the obvious: lynching Prozac and Channel?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Who hasn't claimed yet then?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I already claimed at some point - VT.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Hmm.

Why's MBL town?

G-g-g-gut.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

They're lost on me too, so that's fine.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That's not what that says at all, MBL.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

My town read on him is not nearly sufficiently articulated to be able to answer that type of question, Ether. MBL plays a weird game.

@MBL, that's pretty much what I'd expect from both. Channel is just continuing where he left off. I don't share Ether's opposition to that vote, but that totally fits with her.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I have a candidate, but I'm not sure town would benefit from me going into that.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Zzzzzzzzz.

Do we need any more claims or can we get to the lynching stage?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Do we need any more claims or can we get to the lynching stage?

Everyone's claimed. Who do you want lynched and why?

Channel/Prozac. I've already said why.

Vote: Channel

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

@ChannelDelibird, here's why you should change your vote to Cogito Ergo Sum at this point if you're town:

It may be the best short-term move, but mafia is a long-term game, Zorblag.

Who do you want lynched and why?

Channel/Prozac. I've already said why.

You have? I just read back through December 17th and couldn't find a hint of a case you've made against either. Please indulge me by emptyquoting your old cases/arguments for those two being scum.

I just read that stretch of your posts again. You never made any kind of case on either or stated any facts in support of your belief that they're scum. Not one.

This time, you're not wagoning. Please make your cases, or point us to the previous cases you claim you've made on those two.

Huh. I guess I assumed that had come up at some point previous. The answer is pretty boring anyway: lurking (in the case of Porochaz), gut (mostly Channel on this one), process of elimination, Glrok protecting Channel. I think my suspicion of HH blinded me to Channelscum a bit previously, because Channel proposing HH-Prozac-me looked like a losing proposition.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

@Cogito Ergo Sum, mafia is a long term game, yes. And this one's been going on for a while. Now that we're in LyLo we need to get everything right from here on out. That means that this is exactly the wrong time to be making moves that increase our chances of handing scum the chance to make a mislynch. Would you object to ChannelDelibird voting for you at this time? Is there a long term benefit that I'm not seeing for having his vote on another player right now?

Well, obviously I don't care who he votes for since him being town would mean that the quicklynch is possible, but from a hypothetical Channeltown perspective, I would note that 1) Porochaz is a more realistic lynch to push today and 2) odds are exceedingly slim that the town will pull off a win if Porochaz is town i.e. the scenarios in which that vote loses the town the game feature negligible odds of a town victory.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Can we lynch Channel now?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm just waiting for you guys to lynch Channel.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Confess!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

He could still be reading it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Everyone not voting Channel sucks.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Go go Channellynch.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm not voting CDB

Boo.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Can you 2 kids stop mucking about and lynch Channel?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think CDB and Prozac go together.

Why not?

It would be pretty silly if they were both together.

Can you name something that you would expect to have gone down differently if they were scum together? I can't think of a less specific objection than "It would be silly".

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Give me one plausible scenario in which Channel and Prozac both survive this Day.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Hint: it's not 2).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES you could have died today.

Nuh-uh. Channel even went with voting Poro instead of voting me back.

P.S. Note who isn't posting.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Because he wouldn't want the entire scumteam to get caught on a mislynch.

Are we still pretending that that sort of thing ever happens?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Someone vote, dammit.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Don't toy around, MBL.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's half an hour to deadline.

If you don't vote for Channel, we lose.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glork hopped off the CDB wagon "still on the fence about CDB" possibly because ALL FOUR SCUM were on the wagon

You didn't explain how this would actually work last time either.

Pretty sure deadline's in 1 1/2 hrs.

Point still stands though. If it were CES-Zorblarg-Poro, you'd need Ether and Drummers to post in the next 1.5 hour and vote Prozac.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

15 minutes left, MBL. There's only one viable course of action.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

MBL, you'd better not be enjoying this.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Are they alts?

P.S. Vote for Channel, dammit.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Finally.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Only if it's Prozac-Zorblag-Ether.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Pretty tempted to just vote Prozac here.

MBL, when exactly were you planning to vote there?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I've given it some more thought and I really can't see us winning the game if Porochaz is town. Thus, I feel this is the right move:

Vote: Porochaz

.

Discuss.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

P.S. You guys should vote for Prozac.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Ether, move on. If it's Drummers-MBL, I've lost it for the town. Continuing to discuss that possibility is pointless.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Hint: it's not going to be the former.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

WHAT ARE YOU DOING?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You know what I'm talking about.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Everyone not voting Prozac sucks.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

This is not the time to stop contributing, people.

I miss Zorblag.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Can you please lay out your argument for Prozac = scum? Ether says she suspects he's town and I'd like to see a debate on the matter.

Process of elimination.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

In that scenario, if the 2 main suspects are scum, they totally do bus each other and you know it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Maybe the fact that the town is almost certainly going to nab a scum whether they like it or not? Makes more sense to try to win it the day after.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yes, clearly Channel should've made a case for, say, me being scum in the 2 lines of content they mustered.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The solution is for people to vote for Prozac.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Ugh. You're not seriously going to let this idiot grudge against MBL doom us, are you?

I think Chazscum is more passive than that.

If he were more passive, he wouldn't have a pulse.

I think MBL's failure to hammer is absolutely 100% unforgiveable and there is pretty much no way that he is not scum. I can elaborate, but since I'm in a stream of consciousness mode, I'm instead going to say that it disturbs the hell out of me that CES let this slide.

MBL clearly had a plan. If he had gotten the hammer in with half a minute to go, he would've been proven town and you wouldn't be in a position to throw the game away. Given the totality of his posting I'm not sure whether he would've gone for that play as scum (killing Zorblag and then you, Ether, seems like a far safer path to victory) and I really do think that MBLtown would've gone for a 10:59 hammer vote. You beating him to it doesn't tell us anything.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I hoped I wasn't going to have to bring this up but with Ether's recent MBL-CES suspicions I feel obliged to: I asked Patrick to prod Ether ~6 minutes before deadline.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES was blaming Ether for hammering rather than trusting in you.

Far from it. That move made perfect sense. It made sense for MBL to want to wait, but the rest of the players obviously don't want to let him get that sort of power. If I hadn't wanted Ether to hammer, I wouldn't've asked Patrick to prod her.

CES defending you at this point considering everything else makes him even scummier.

Ether accused me of letting him slide vis a vis the deadline happenings, so I explained my read on MBL in that situation. Explaining things when prompted is not scummy.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Your argument about CDB and Prozac not busing each other to start D6 is interesting. Do you have meta information to share about them or is it just common sense?

I think it's more likely to be uncommon sense.

MBL, were you really expecting an impressive case from me? In fact, I think that's something I'm more likely to do as scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Woo.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The deadline is Thursday by the bye.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

*hi-fives Ether*

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Those two quotes were about Ectomancer, not Yos.

P.S. directing votes away from a townie strikes me as a good thing.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Those two quotes were about Ectomancer, not Yos.

P.S. directing votes away from a townie strikes me as a good thing.

Which you knew before the reveal, correct?

Not sure why you feel the need to make this comment. It's silly to not use the extra information we now have while re-reading.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Process of elimination, Prozac.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Cool, could you tell me how you eliminated everyone else. Also could you tell me why you hadnt said this before.

I've had gut town reads on Ether and MBL for like forever. Gurgi showed some flashes of townieness early, but obviously he hasn't been eliminated - I think he's your partner. I've mentioned before in myISO #150 and #183.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Sweet.

Gurgi's tomorrow's lynch.