NY129-Mafia on Werewolf Island! (Game Over)
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Reading through the game.
Up to page 6. I'm not buying the cases on Pine or C-worl. I actually think Ray could be scum pushing on a townie for a mislynch. The reason is basically because I don't think that the case on C-worl is actually that strong, or nearly as strong as Rayfrost is making it out to be.
In the first several pages, MaxKojote and Lucresia also stood out as somewhat scummy in their first posts. I didn't like either of their C-worl votes; not only did they not explain why they thought he's scummy, they sheeped the wagon without giving any opinions of anyone. They didn't even acknowledge the case on C-worl. They didn't even say they thought C-worl was scummy. They just sheeped. Blatantly. There may have been others who sheeped similarly blatantly that I missed, but those are the ones that I noticed.
The case as laid out by Rayfrost in 157 makes some sense, but I frankly think it's too early for these things to be especially relevant. I understand the case (I actually didn't understand it well before this post) but I don't agree with it. Honestly, At this point I see C-worl as null.
kr0b 167 = goodposting except one thing - why are you singling out Shift for sheeping when he actually read the cases on c-worl/pine instead of just seeing several people voting the same person and joining the wagon?
Same question to T-bone. Why single out Chronopie?
@Everyone on the C-worl wagon who hasn't made a content-filled post yet:Please explain why you agree with the case. I have an aching suspicion that there's scum on the wagon who haven't even read the actual case.
No. Nooooo. No. Why would you say this. This is NOT a townie's job even if vanilla, you do NOT know what C-worl's role is if C-worl is town, please explain why not giving a shit if you live or die is a towntell in any way shape or form.Rayfrost wrote:4. Not giving a shit if you die or live.
FoS Rayfrost
C-worl's playing badly, but I don't see how that's really indicative of alignment right now.
lol'd at post 201.
Shift's 204 = right, I don't see how this is a slip at all. Also, and I'm sure someone's said this, just because there's a color for third party flips doesn't mean that there's any third party alignments. We only know for certain that there are town, mafia, and werewolves.
Aaaand Ray did in 210. Still.
jindori is obvtown btw
Unvote
Woo caught up. Not sure where the best place to put my vote on is right now; the people I'd like to post have no votes on them. I guess I'll pressure a random lurker.
VOTE: Lucresia-
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Also,V/LA from tomorrow (Monday) until Friday.I'm going to be in California. I'm not sure if I'm going to have access at all (I PROBABLY will, but no guarantee) and even if I have access it's unlikely I'll be able to post frequently.
Noted.Last edited by DemonHybrid on Sun Mar 27, 2011 9:49 am, edited 2 times in total.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Wallpost.
I disagree. I see C-worl's actions at this point as those of a townie, thinking they're going to be lynched, fighting and trying to give reads. Frankly, the more I look at C-Worl, the less I agree with the case on him.pine wrote:@Implosion: If you would still like comprehensive reasoning from me, I will be happy to provide it. PEdit: As I was writing this, C-Worl posted again, and it turns out I do have some original comments. What C-Worl is doing right now is scrambling. He's panicked and grasping at anything and everything that might be a lifeline. Instead of calmly reasoning his way out of a hole (which I regard as the proper Town response,) he's calling people on minor crap (see his lame case against Chronopie) and splitting hairs.
If you're a NK immune bulletproof cop, I think giving a shit whether you live or die would definitely be appropriate. Sure, the primary goal of a townie is to find scum. But first of all, if you're a power role, staying alive can help significantly with that primary goal... and second of all, being mislynched undeniably hurts the town. The method in which C-Worl may die right now is through lynching. C-Worl giving a shit whether or not he is lynched makes sense as town (it makes sense as scum too).RayFrost wrote:If you're scum, you need to stay alive. If you're town, you need to find scum. Staying alive for scum is a necessity, it is not so for town. This is a fat until lylo / mylo where the two goals are equivalent. You could be a NK immune sane cop, an it'll still be more important to find scum than it is to stay alive. The fact you suspect me over something like this is kinda hilarious, by the by.
I agree with Ray's townlist, except possibly NS.
I assume the minus means you don't like this? I didn't like any of the main wagons, so my vote was unlikely to have any strong lynch-causing effect, so I utilized it for pressure on a lurker. I can't vote for multiple lurkers, so I voted for the first one I happened to type.Lowell wrote:273- implosion catches up, votes a "random lurker" [-, ?]
I don't see how this is WIFOM. WIFOM is one of the most misapplied terms in the mafia vocabulary - please explain how you see it as this. The argument actually appears valid. However, there are two legitimate flaws. First of all, if this is RayFrost's meta and he plays abnormally, he will appear scummy and be lynched. And second of all, it's conceivable in a multiball game that a scum faction (or both, who knows) could have a doctor. If this were the case, they wouldn't have to worry about having RF be nightkilled even if he appears towny. It's even possible that RF could be trying to attract the attention of a town doctor (I've done a similar thing as SK before, but that was in an epicmafia game I remember).Pine wrote:
Pure WIFOM. And nothing else.tclawren wrote:Also @Pine and all who may doubt Ray is town: If Ray is scum he is playing terribly. In a setup with confirmed opposing scumteams, you cannot stand out as scum. You have to appear simultaneously town-ish to not get lynched but not too town-ish to get NK-ed. And by the looks of it Ray will probably get NK-ed eventually since he is really pushing this game for the town.
Now, that last sentence of mine actuallywaswifom. A person could be acting townish to attract protection - they could be acting townish because they are town - they could be doing it to look like town. These are all possibilities, so we use occam's razor and see that if a person is acting like town then they are most likely town.
I'm still undecided on whether RF is as huge of a townread as everyone else appears to think.
Is desperate, frustrated playRF wrote:C-worl's scum. He can't change his desperately frustrated play. He's desperate and frustrated. I can understand: I get frustrated when people figure out I'm scum, too.uniqueto scum? No. In the case of at least many people on MS, if there is a large wagon on you on day one, you will become frustrated and in some cases desperate. After that, you have to look towards motivations, and I don't see scum motivations from C-Worl.
Yes, I'm blatantly defending C-Worl. I don't think he's mafia. Deal with it.
Don't try to call scumteams. Focus on one person at a time. Look at their flip. Use their flip to divine other players' alignments.Zepher wrote:I have concluded that C-Worl should be today's lynch, and Chronopie should be who we go after tomorrow. I see scum team.
Trying to call the whole scumteam (or scumbuddies) on day one is bad.
...
Raud is town
...
Snake wagon > C-Worl wagon. C-Worl is town. Snake reads null-leaning-scum to me.
In order to put my vote somewhere useful:
Unvote, Vote: Snake-
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@pine: what in hell leads you to believe a claimed antitown? Someone else already said it; if someone is antitown, they have no reason to be truthful. If they claim that their win condition is to kill town, then they're going to be lynched... so whether or not their real wincon is to kill east side werewolves or whatever, they're going to claim something like that.
YES, CLEARLY, THE WEREWOLF SAID IT, IT MUST BE TRUE... look. We cannot believe anything he said. For all we know, west/east side werewolves (there could be the same thing with the mafia) are like seeking masons except scum (there was a similar mechanic in mafia on holy orders, multiple aligned scum factions that didn't know each other at the beginning of the game). He could just be covering.Pine wrote:Finally, regardless of whether jindori's faction is anti-Town, they're definitely anti-eastside.
Sure, it's possible that jindori isn't crafty enough to do something like that... but still, we haveno reason to trust scum. There is no verifiable way of telling if he was lying.
In fact, according to the normal guidelines (gorilla linked to them earlier):
We are guaranteed to have mafia and werewolves. This means no third scum faction. I think.The game should have at least one Mafia group (of at least two members). A second anti-town group can be given a separate Mafia family name, or can be a Werewolf group.There should be no more than two mafia factions, and no more than one Serial Killer.
Any response to this, Pine?-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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The implosion theory of wtf is going on
There are four groups: east/west side mafia/werewolves.
Reasoning? east/west side justifications make more sense when attached to mafia than when attached to werewolves.
Also, note thatthe OP guarantees the presence of both mafia and werewolves.
Most likely, considering the size of this game, that would make each of these four groups have two members for two 4-man scumgroups. 8/24 is conceivable with the possibility of crosskills. If this is the case, then either the west/east groups would somehow link up or the mafia/werewolf groups would somehow link up. It is also possible that there is a west side werewolf group and an east side mafia group and no one else, and jindori was either lying or misconceived what information he had.
[/theory]
Anyway... C-Worl is still town. I actually think Pine is town too, since I don't see any scum member doing what he did with jindori. Why? It draws attention to him. Mafia don't want attention drawn to them. And besides, if he's in a different scumgroup than jindori it would be easy enough to just attack him. If he's in the same scumgroup as jindori then it's conceivable that it was defending his partner, but it would be an incredibly odd way of doing so.
Still trying to figure out the scum, but the two biggest (by one vote) wagons both suck. I might be inclined to vote RF, but I want to hear his response to Kise's accusation.-
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C-Worl did and Snake had an emerging one, but they were reset by the modkill.Reckamonic wrote:I'm curious why
C-Worl, T-Bone, Snake, claw and Garm do not have large wagons on them.
Meh. After thinking a little more, it's actually probably smart to not pay attention to this... the answer should reveal itself with time. Yes, I know, I'm the one who speculated. I'm not going to speculate about this any more.Pine wrote:Actually, it's been more-or-less proven that there's only two scum groups, implosion. As much as I hate to admit to being duped, it makes most sense to proceed at this time assuming West Side Werewolves (WSW) and East Side Mafia (ESM).
I think RF (Reckamonic) is town. Not sure, but definitely leaning town. I still, oddly enough, think C-Worl is town. I actually think C-Worl is town fairly strongly.
1) did you see RF's claim?SnakePlissen wrote:but he's replaced out which actually makes me think that he's either Vanilla or anti town as you rarely see a Town PR drop out.
2) did you see RF's reason for leaving?
3) this is a ridiculous statement anyway, the reasons for which people leave games aren't role related in the vast majority of instances.
I'm thinking the Snake wagon was actually a very good thing that got cut short because of the modkill. We should start it again.
VOTE: Snake-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Kise is town btw. So is T-Bone. And still C-Worl.
Good catch, Conspiracy. I'd furthermore say:
@NS: a town-aligned vigilante increases the town's odds of winning. Why do you advocate lynching Kise, who you (based on the post you vote him) do not think is scum? In fact, later in the post, you say he is scum... in fact, you contradict yourselfin one post... "You're either town-aligned Vig or 3rd party SK" and "so many juicy scum to choose from. Snake, Kise, Reck." cannot both be applicable, as the first implies that the reason you are voting him is for being a killing role (terrible reason) and the second implies that the reason you are voting him is for being scummy. Clarify, please, why you voted Kise, and why he is scummy.
FoS NS, I will support this wagon if it develops, but they're apparently both mafia (him and Snake) and Snake's gonna be the easier wagon to form today probably.-
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Nobody Special's last post givesno reasoningas to why Kise is scum. To paraphrase all four of his points: either Kise is town or Kise is scum. Even more than that, it's mudslinging - he repeatedly implies that Kise is "lying scum" when, in fact, he has given no reason why his other stated choices should be incorrect. NS, please give reasoning as to why Kise is more likely to be antitown than protown. If you can't provide reasoning, then you (if town) have no reason to be voting for him. Also, address the points I raised in my last post - either you missed it or ignored it apparently.-
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^Town unless he does something crazy^EL wrote:No it's not a typo, its a contradiction. Thanks for giving me an avenue to slip through if I were scum though. It's me publicizing my thought process as to how I feel about lynching Snake. I'm really not sure about it still, but I think the added weight my vote gives Snake might be enough to get him to talk.
It might be gut, but this is the kind of thing that I doubt scum would say.
inb4 accusations of WIFOM
^Still town^T-Bone wrote:I know this suggestion is like totally a mega scumtell but...it looks like activity is really slowing down. Something like a lynch needs to happen. The day phase has lost some momentum this past week from it's high last weekend.
Man, the town in this game are easier to find than the scum. Only 2 scum caught, plenty of town.
I know. A lot of people haven't even mentioned it.ConSpiracy wrote:I still don't get why just 4 players can see this... Is there a 20 man mafia/wherewolf team or something?
I'm getting some scumvibes from Nero Cain, but that's entirely gut. I'll probably look into it more later.
Nacho that is a RIDICULOUSLY insignificant post from NS to derive such an (apparently) strong townread from. Explain it, please. If it's entirely gut, then don't base such a strong read on it.
^Ambiguous^Charlie wrote:No rope for you, Nacho.
No rope.
No.
Do you mean to not lynch Nacho, or to not give Nacho rope to lynch others (e.g. criticizing his reads)?
Excuse me? Me, the guy whoLowell wrote:Haven't had the time to look at the NS case, but just a cursory glance reveals implosion and tclaw both are scummily trying to sneak their way onto the wagon.made the damn case, sneaking onto the wagon?
I see it. Noted for the future. Pine's still a townread overall, but not as strongly.Nero Cain wrote:Raise your hand if you see it.
P-edit:-
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~wallpost~
Kise is still probably town.tclawren wrote:@Kise: I want a full claim and your actions last night now.
So, you're voting someone who claimed in a very vague manner (at least IMO) to be a killing role who was killing Reck, and who - more importantly - has a history of gambiting (see: jindori) for not having killed Reck? Frankly, I'm pretty sure Kise is town. This looks like Kise's town play to me.other people wrote:vote kise
Or it could just be a gambit. A roleblocker is possible too, but meh.Raud wrote:Obvious would be that he actually is Vig and was role-blocked by scum because they foresaw it being pushed by some members of the town. Which would mean that they could kill two birds with one stone (free lynch and removal of a serious threat).
Now, all this said, Kise should claim whether or not he is a killing role in a non-gambitty way. The confusion that he's causing is obfuscating his alignment, and (IMO) distracting from other, better lynch candidates. Well, at least for me. And actually, he might not have claimed to be a killing role vaguely, I might just remember it like that because he's already been gambiting.
NC flipped town.Raud" wrote:Fair enough. Oh, and was anybody else intrigued by Nero Cain's decision to laugh at Eldritch's hammer of Snake? Seemed a little out of place.
Um, forgive me if I'm wrong, but isn't it usually bad if town power roles die for no reason and nothing is gained whatsoever from their death?Pine wrote:Alternatively, scum-Kise could just do nothing and claim on D2 to have visited him, causing us to lynch Reck on D2. If Reck is PGO and Kise Town, we lose a Town PR.
Also, I just thought of something.
@Reckamonic: what's your kill flavor?
After this, you proceed to vote CS. Why, exactly, does CS saying this make him more likely to be scum than town? Sure, wanting to leave a serial killer alive is nonsensical because they have their own agenda. But why would scum be more likely to say something like this than town?quadz wrote:.... what? You don't want to lynch the person who you think is an SK? You realize that an SK is anti-town, yes? Therefore leaving an SK alive is BAD? I don't think town should trust an SK to do a vig's job, ever, and that's the only reason I can think of that you wouldn't want to lynch someone you think is an SK. If we pick someone who's a mafioso or a werewolf, then fine, leave the SK. But if he's the biggest read you have? You vote the shit out of him. Period.
Woo. Good job sheeping flawed reasoning.Powerrox wrote:Why should we trust that the SK is doing a vig's work? SK's is antitown, and you want to keep them alive for the reason to compensate for a lost of town PR's?! Yes the SK can hit mafia/werewolves but have you forgotten that it can hit town as well?! The risks is so high that making a gamble like this isn't worth it.FoS- and same question to you as to quadz.
Substantive post is substantive.Charlie wrote:The horror... the horror.
:goodposting:gorilla wrote:hi
conspiracy's post is a dumb post but not convincingly a scum post
speculating on wtf Kise meant before kise has posted is dumb
am a bit lost, but pine, tclawren, and powerrux are all pretty scummy imo
anyway have work to do, later
Flaw - if both are town, they might want to roleblock Kise because A, he's unpredictable and B, he's a claimed killing role and RBing him would cause chaos.C-Worl wrote:Kise said he was going to visit Reck, who is claimed PGO. If both were Town scum would have no reason to RB Kise. Scum would have just let Kise go in for the kill and the two of them would have cross killed each other. Therefore by both of them being alive there's only two scenarios I see.
@Chrono's math: tl;dr but you're town.
My opinion on whether to lynch the SK or not: we don't know if they're an SK or not. Why lynch them if they aren't suspicious for another reason? Even if there was a semiconfirmed SK, I honestly would be neutral on whether or not to kill them. It can be argued both ways, and depends on both whether the SK is going after scum and whether they'd be accurate at hitting scum.
VOTE: Powerrox
I really, really hate his one post so far today. It screams scum to me.
tclaw wagon might be good. Ambivalent about Raud, will develop that read through the day.-
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Well, Reckamonic, a few reasons.
1) if a strange new kill flavor shows up and you wind up dead, we'll know what it was for sure.
2) if someone decides to visit you and dies, we'll know it was you.
3) you - if town - lose absolutely nothing by claiming a kill flavor
4) to be sure that the "choking" kill flavor was, in fact, a vig/SK because it could theoretically have been you.
gorilla, it was basically agreeing with the reads and what you said about CS.
I'm not doing it to defend you, I'm doing it because their votes were illogical and powerrox was sheeping it.ConSpiracy wrote:
Soo, I wanted to answer this, when implosion ninja'd me with this. (I appreciate you helping me, but I have my own voice/posts you know)quadz08 wrote:
Explain how what I did was scummy? I felt that saying Kise is the SK and then leaving him alive was an anti-town idea. Calling it "without substance" is also a misrep.ConSpiracy wrote:BTW, quadz and powerrox just earned a lot of scumpoints for this. They try to form an easy wagon without any substance.
Let's bring it up:-
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^Still town^Kise wrote:I'm cool with being called SK. Won't deny it at the moment.
No. You're misinterpreting my argument. I think that I understand how you wanted to say what quadz said, but couldn't because you were asleep. However, two things apply... first of all, if you're scum, we have no way of knowing if you actually came up with it on your own and didn't just sheep him. And more importantly, the argument was flawed. Sheeping flawed argumentation is scummy.Powerrox wrote:@implosion: Since when became it scummy to have bad luck?
I'm going to assume Raud is SK for now. He might be town. Might. I'd like to leave him alive for now. I really, really doubt that he's nonSKscum. He could be scum, but why would he claim the scum kill flavor? It honestly seems like too weird a claim to have been contrived by mafia.
This. Raud's behavior makes no sense as any alignment.singer wrote:I...don't get it...
So, he's probably a jester-
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I would say direct the vigsk, mainly because he isn't confirmed scum. If he's town, an extra town-aligned nightkill is not a bad thing no matter how many people say it is; it's like a second lynch.
Frankly, as I indicated in my last post, I have no idea whatsoever what Raud would flip if we were to lynch him. I think directing him could help us figure out his alignment (i.e. if no one ever dies he might be mafiawerewolf) and be another protown kill even if he is SK. His lynch can come later if necessary (which it probably will eventually be).-
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Charlie is null. Still don't think C-Worl is scum. Powerrox is still scum. I also really dislike tclaw's Chronopie vote; it seems really out of left field. The last time tclaw mentioned Chronopie was on April 6 to say that he didn't have anything to say about him (he was giving a list of reads).
VOTE: tclaw-
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tclaw wrote:Yesterday was about Kise and Raud for me. I didn't talk about anyone else really.
Exactly - why, now that a new day dawns, ignore the people who you were calling scum (Raud is obviously dead but Kise still exists) and go after a somewhat arbitrary lurker? In fact, you really didn't talk about Kise that much yesterday... in fact, you didn't really talk much about anyone but Raud yesterday.
tclaw wrote:In a game this big there is going to be people you are not going to be talking about regularly. Especially if they post as selectively as Chronopie.
As selectively? Explain this, please. In the post where you vote Chrono, apart from calling him a lurker, you only cite one actual reason, his C-Worl unvote.
In fact, on reading your ISO, you've only mentioned me once - in your list of reads - calling me town. I've posted less than Chronopie. Could you elaborate on why Chrono is scummy?
@everyone: just a mental note, keep in mind that, in terms of bandwagon analysis, Raud was a good lynch from the point of view of everyone alive. Just because it wasn't a mislynch from the town's point of view, it doesn't mean that it wasn't a mislynch from the scums' point of view (which it was, because Raud wasn't in either factional scum group).-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
- Polymath
- Polymath
- Posts: 14679
- Joined: September 9, 2010
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: zoraster's wine cellar
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
- Polymath
- Polymath
- Posts: 14679
- Joined: September 9, 2010
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: zoraster's wine cellar
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
- Polymath
- Polymath
- Posts: 14679
- Joined: September 9, 2010
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: zoraster's wine cellar
P-EDIT AT TOP OF POST FOR SOME REASON: no shit, mastin, that T-Bone will suspect gorilla and I - we're kind of counterclaiming him by saying we didn't visit. I expect an explanation for why it's inadvisable to confirm/deny him right now, at some point, and it had better be good.
Okay. First of all, I'm unsure about Reckamonic - I think people may be dismissing them as town too early. First of all (no pun intended) I'm paranoid about the PGO claim. I'm just not entirely sure if it would be in a normal, but no one seems to be calling them instant scum for that, so I'll put that aside. Second of all, when I read Nacho's ISO, it made me think Reckamonic was scum. It felt like he could have been distancing from Ray in his early posts and stuff like ISO 31. It feels like he went against Ray/Reck a lot without really doing anything (he voted Reck at one point, but there was only one other person voting Reck and (even after providing reasoning) he changed the vote to Pine less than a day later.) Plus (and it's been said at other points like C_Worl's 1651) it would make sense for scum to claim PGO in a game like this, where they KNOW that another scumteam is shooting at them, especially for someone who looks as town as Ray.
Chronopie wrote:If there are only two neighbours (one flipped town), it seems highly unlikely, as this is a two team game, that the other neighbour is scum. Three neighbours, and it may have been alot more plausible.
This seems to have been brought up at other points. I disagree. To say that, because there are 2 scum factions, both neighbors are probably town, is to try to outguess the mod. There is no reason at all that the mod couldn't make the game asymmetrical - in fact, it probably is asymmetrical. So TC's claim really doesn't clear him either.
@mastin, where you you derive your town read on Powerrox from?I mean just look at his avatar he's an obvwerewolf
This is only up to page 70 btw. Figure I'll post what I have so far since I keep getting distracted.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
- Polymath
- Polymath
- Posts: 14679
- Joined: September 9, 2010
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: zoraster's wine cellar
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
- Polymath
- Polymath
- Posts: 14679
- Joined: September 9, 2010
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: zoraster's wine cellar
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
- Polymath
- Polymath
- Posts: 14679
- Joined: September 9, 2010
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: zoraster's wine cellar
Also, I think I asked this and I don't think mastin answered so:
Mastin:Explain your townread on Powerrox. Without referencing any reads on other people, because Powerrox appears to be one of the people that you are assuming is town before actually going through your VCA. But you never actually explained it in any other way than circular reasoning that relies on reads of other players, as far as I can find (specifically: he's town, therefore this vote count is evidence that he's town).-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
- Polymath
- Polymath
- Posts: 14679
- Joined: September 9, 2010
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: zoraster's wine cellar
Powerrox93 wrote:You should've listened to what imposion said
implosion wrote:I mean just look at his avatar he's an obvwerewolf
(I lol'd)
This was a very good game. Great players, good design, good flavor, as always when DemonHybrid is the mod. And we won despite losing jindori D1
;_;
I feel like there were people that had power as scum, and there were people that had chrono as scum, but there weren't enough and weren't pushing strongly enough. If anything, I think the scummy they'd be most deserving of is best performance in a losing cause. DH put it well - up against a modkill and three enemy factions, and they pulled it off both alive. They played under pretty much everyone's radar very well. I mean, they won. but it was still a losing cause. If that makes sense. ~_~.
DH was quite the mod. Flavor was just epic in many cases (*cough* mastin *cough*). Seriously, that lynch flavor had me laughing for like half an hour. It was just so perfect.
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