NY129-Mafia on Werewolf Island! (Game Over)

[quadz08]

Hai guyz. I'm replacing in for Lucresia. I'll catch up as soon as I can.

[quadz08]

Hai everyone. I'm caught up and stuff.

First things first: I need to see more from Zepher, Powerrox, implosion, and lowell.

I am basically starting from scratch here on D2, reads-wise. I have some leanings on people (EL is leaning scum; Reckamonic is likely town) but nothing terribly concrete.

I actually don't want to lynch Kise.
Why? Because I highly suspect her to be the SK.

.... what? You don't want to lynch the person who you think is an SK? You realize that an SK is anti-town, yes? Therefore leaving an SK alive is BAD? I don't think town should trust an SK to do a vig's job, ever, and that's the only reason I can think of that you wouldn't want to lynch someone you think is an SK. If we pick someone who's a mafioso or a werewolf, then fine, leave the SK. But if he's the biggest read you have? You vote the shit out of him. Period.
VOTE: ConSpiracy

We can pretty much assume that there are two scum factions (mafia and werewolves). There is either an SK or a vig, or both (and one got blocked / there was doublekill).
It is

possible

that Nero Cain targeted Reckamonic, especially taking into account that RF was being tossed around pretty heavily as a Jindori scumpartner. I'm inclined to doubt it, but the possibility remains open.

Mod: If two kill actions were targeted at the same player, would the flavor show both actions?

[quadz08]

^if you had said that 2 hours ago, I'd be giving you townpoints.

[quadz08]

^doesn't matter when you say that, I'm giving you scumpoints. fluff&follow, fluff&follow!

[quadz08]

I think I am too smart in this game for others to understand.
Let's see what a usual SK goal is: "You win when you are the only one alive or nothing can prevent that from happening."
Let's see who has the edge, mafia/werewolves or town? Right mafia/werewolves cuz we just lost 3 town PR's.
If the mafia has the edge over townies, who is the SK trying to get down to win himself? Righto, mafia/werewolves.
You have a nice saying for that: "Your enemy's enemy is your friend."

BTW, quadz and powerrox just earned a lot of scumpoints for this. They try to form an easy wagon without any substance.

Explain how what I did was scummy? I felt that saying Kise is the SK and then leaving him alive was an anti-town idea. Calling it "without substance" is also a misrep.

I think I am too smart in this game for others to understand.
Let's see what a usual SK goal is: "You win when you are the only one alive or nothing can prevent that from happening."
Let's see who has the edge, mafia/werewolves or town? Right mafia/werewolves cuz we just lost 3 town PR's.
If the mafia has the edge over townies, who is the SK trying to get down to win himself? Righto, mafia/werewolves.
You have a nice saying for that: "Your enemy's enemy is your friend."

BTW, quadz and powerrox just earned a lot of scumpoints for this. They try to form an easy wagon without any substance.

Explain how what I did was scummy? I felt that saying Kise is the SK and then leaving him alive was an anti-town idea. Calling it "without substance" is also a misrep.

Yep because I'm sheeping to a vote on a person who didn't have any votes on him before hand. Kise is voting TC not Reck. So I guess I'll give you scumpoints for not reading the thread.

... Just because Kise's vote wasn't on him, doesn't mean that you weren't following Kise with 0 reasoning of your own. Your whole post was "say same thing about CS, then say Kise was right about Reckamonic," followed by a vote on Reckamonic. Having no original thought whatsoever, followed immediately with a vote? No me gusta.

Actually ConsPiracy is absolutely right.
We have no intelligent reason to want to kill the SK when we've lost two cops and a doc. He has to play the part of the vig if he wants a chance of winning, otherwise mafia will crush him like a bug.

I hadn't thought about the SK's perspective on it. That does make more sense.
UNVOTE: ConSpiracy

While TC did make a good catch on Raud, I'm undecided if it was really a scumslip, or just a newbslip. I have a tough time reading newer players (making this game just absolutely a blast for me.)

That doesn't imply that he lied. To me it sounds like he's implying he got Role Blocked.

Just... no.

*thumbsup* for Reckamonic on this one.

Chronopie: There are 19 players left. We started with 24, had a modkill, a lynch, and 3 NKs. Imma redo some maths here.

MATHS

Assuming a 3-3-1 setup (worst case, IMO), we are now at 13:3:2:1.

4 townie deaths each day/night puts us at 9:3:2:1 tomorrow, and then 5:3:2:1 the next day. The game is technically not over at that point, but town is highly unlikely to win once we drop below the number of anti-town factions, IMO. However, at 9:3:2:1, I think scum will probably be looking towards crosskilling.

As the smallest faction, it makes sense for an SK to hang out with the town and shoot scum for now, and play as a vig. That not only gets rid of factions that can keep the SK from winning, but is likely to make him look pro-town (as he'll be scumhunting just like the town will be). It also works out to our advantage to let the SK shoot for scum. Tonight, 5/18 possible targets are scum, which are honestly pretty good odds once you take out the players who are prob-town.

In conclusion, I'm with Reck/ConSpiracy on this one. SK stays alive.

P-Edit:

And then the misrep on Roud, ignoring the reason there's a contradiction of statements that would make the misrep invalid...*tsk*tsk* Obvious misrep is obvious.

Can you show me the misrep? I don't see it.

[quadz08]

I think he meant the werewolves know the other werewolves, and the mafia knows the other mafia.

[quadz08]

@singer: .... derp. Good point, dearest.

[quadz08]

@Reck:

I've wanted Pine lynched since the jin affair

, but decided that Snake was a slightly better lynch than Pine after a while. However, with no better choice, I think I will

VOTE: Pine

Nope, I said that I wanted one, not always wanted.

Derp. Unfortunately I don't see him being lynched today either. UNVOTE: Pine

Oh, and before you go back to one of my earlier posts where I said I thought you were town, let me make this clear:
Opinions can change.
Reads of people can change.
VOTE: tclawren

Raud. Dude. Come ON.

@TC: thanks for the research. Timeline is appreciated for clarity's sake.

After this, you proceed to vote CS. Why, exactly, does CS saying this make him more likely to be scum than town? Sure, wanting to leave a serial killer alive is nonsensical because they have their own agenda. But why would scum be more likely to say something like this than town?

My earlier thought process (the one I was utilizing when that post was made) made me think it would be bad for town to leave an SK alive. Therefore, saying that we should leave the SK alive was a scummy thing to say.

[quadz08]

The only reason I can see for somebody asking this is if they had a killing role and had targeted one of the people who turned up dead. I.E. they're curious as to whether they were role-blocked or not.

Or, you know, checking to see if there are factions / kills we aren't factoring into our analysis.

You mean your partners are ass enough to buss you? Damn, that sucks.

Useless post is useless.

I'm actually just looking forward to why Kise is so interested in lynching tclawren. He hasn't given his reasons yet.

Agreed. I'd like to hear Lowell give some real reasoning as to why TC is scum as well. Whether or not his 1139 is true, Lowell has tunneled on TC harder than a mole on steroids. So far, Lowell has given this reasoning:

Lowell's reasoning

ISO 2:

His two posts on page four (88 and 92) both go after low-hanging fruit. First a newbie, then a switch to someone who showed up just long enough to RV. Why pretend these are real reasons when clearly it's just him messing around.

ISO 12:

For reasons tclaw is scum, see:
Fishing, Role
Calling people "vig/sk bait" as justification of their innocence.

That's it. 10 of his 15 posts have called TC scum in some way. Of the other 5, 1 was a random vote, 2 were saying "shoot got a prod," 1 was posting V/LA, and one said only "ditto" in response to Nacho's reaction to Raud's claim. He has expressed suspicion of others, but only very briefly, and nothing consistent. WHAT'S THAT? A TUNNEL? FULL SPEED AHEAD CAPTAIN.

VOTE: Lowell

Raud: bad claim is bad. I'm undecided if the mod would have actually put a bulletproof compulsive vig in the game, and it sucks cause it went to a VI player, or if he's really the SK fakeclaiming poorly, or if he's actually scum fakeclaiming vig/SK like C-Worl says (though this is the least likely option; I don't feel like Raud would have thought to claim something quite so sophisticated).

[quadz08]

Ugh... Raud... to add to it all you go "hey I'm gonna kill Reck tonight. He said I should be trying to lynch him BETTER START NOW OMG." Plus, that post was OMGUSy as hell.

However, I'm good to have us give him a couple kill options tonight. If that player doesn't die (with a kill flavor of "shot"), we lynch the shit out of him tomorrow.

I suppose it's possible that his hypothetical scumteam would kill one of the players we asked him to target... in fact, that might help them a lot, as that would leave Raud alive for quite a while, as he would appear sympathetic to town at the least...

Urf. Yeah. Gotta do it.

VOTE: Raud

[quadz08]

CS: If Raud as either bulletproof vig or bulletproof SK visits Reck-PGO, it means that Reck dies and Raud stays alive. This is bad.

[quadz08]

But he's, um, you know, BULLETPROOF.

[quadz08]

Oh dear.

Stop posting if you have nothing to contribute.

[quadz08]

So, I'm about 98% sure that was an SK claim. SK-sympathetic-to-town, but still SK.

... ugh. I don't know if we should lynch him or not. He'll have to be lynched at some point (assuming the scum don't get him first), and while T-Bone's logic about possibly depleting townies makes sense, we can basically get a second lynch with this. (Assuming he listens to us, obviously.)

Normally, I'd bring up the SK playing as a vig, and possibly just giving him free reign on who to shoot, but I don't trust Raud to aim at the right people.

[quadz08]

I read honest mistake out of Pine right now.

Lowell: RTFT.

[quadz08]

Pine: suspecting a supporter is NOT a scumtell. You say you want someone not affected by tunnel vision to examine the vote, and then proceed to examine it yourself anyway. Town cred + getting your biased opinion across anyway? Yes, yes it is.

FoS

.

[quadz08]

I want to hear from Charlie and Zepher (and anyone else who hasn't commented on this SK drama, but I

think

they're it) before the hammer, so...

UNVOTE: .

[quadz08]

I can't believe we're not killing this guy. Why do we need everyone to chime in now, when apparently at all other points of the game it didn't matter?

Um... what makes you think it didn't matter at other points in the game?

[quadz08]

Wants to lynch SK:

C-Worl
quadz
gorilla
lowell
powerrox
T-Bone

Wants to direct SK:

Reckmon
Charlie
CS
Nacho
Raud (duh)
Singer

Unknown / I'm not sure:

EL
implosion
Kise
MrZepher
Pine
TC

This is gonna be a fun discussion... If I put someone in the wrong spot / missed anything, lemme know. Those are in the unknown section should give their input.

The company that I am keeping is making me reconsider... I'm inclined to trust Singer, Nacho, and Reckmon on stuff like this, but leaving 3 NKs around seems like a poor plan.

indecision

[quadz08]

Wants to lynch SK:

C-Worl
quadz
gorilla
lowell
powerrox
T-Bone
Pine

Wants to direct SK:

Reckmon
Charlie
CS
Nacho
Raud (duh)
Singer

Unknown / I'm not sure:

EL
implosion
Kise
MrZepher
TC

Pine, I don't like the reason of "not trustworthy enough." I don't think he's so dumb as to disobey our wishes, as he knows he'd be lynched immediately if he did.

[quadz08]

I want to hear from Charlie and Zepher (and anyone else who hasn't commented on this SK drama, but I

think

they're it) before the hammer, so...

UNVOTE: .

[quadz08]

I know him IRL. He's not V/LA this weekend.

Also, I got Charlie already.

[quadz08]

List

Wants to lynch SK:

C-Worl
quadz
gorilla
lowell
powerrox
T-Bone
Pine
Reckmon

Wants to direct SK:

Charlie
CS
Nacho
Raud (duh)
Singer

Unknown / I'm not sure:

EL
implosion
Kise
MrZepher
TC

[quadz08]

List

Wants to lynch SK:

C-Worl
quadz
gorilla
lowell
powerrox
T-Bone
Pine
Reckmon
TC

Wants to direct SK:

Charlie
CS
Nacho
Raud (duh)
Singer
implosion

Unknown / I'm not sure:

EL
Kise
MrZepher

Implosion... RTFT. Raud. Claimed. SK.

[quadz08]

List

Wants to lynch SK:

C-Worl
quadz
gorilla
lowell
powerrox
T-Bone
Pine
Reckmon
TC

Wants to direct SK:

Charlie
CS
Nacho
Raud (duh)
Singer
implosion
Kise

Unknown / I'm not sure:

EL
MrZepher

lol. only 14 pages late, no big.

[quadz08]

My bad, Chrono.

List

Wants to lynch SK:

C-Worl
quadz
gorilla
lowell
powerrox
T-Bone
Pine
Reckmon
TC
Chronopie

Wants to direct SK:

Charlie
CS
Nacho
Raud (duh)
Singer
implosion
Kise

Unknown / I'm not sure:

EL
MrZepher

Mod: Can we have a votecount, please? I know it hasn't been that long since your last one, but this would be much appreciated. Thank you!

[quadz08]

Ok. The list of those who want to lynch matches the votecount (except for me, who had his spot stolen by Raud himself, apparently). Yay consistency! Boo I can't question anybody on why their vote didn't match their opinions.

[quadz08]

Damn the mafia for killing me right after I replaced in, btw.

Even though it did make my life easier.