NY129-Mafia on Werewolf Island! (Game Over)

mastin2 · Post Post #1454 (isolation #0) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 3:48 pm

DemonHybrid wrote:
Looking for a replacement for Lowell.

Guessing that'd be me?

mastin2 · Post Post #1462 (isolation #1) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 4:07 pm

Indeed. For starters, I've essentially only skimmed the game, but...

-C-worl looked town.

Unvote

.
-So did tclawren.
-Reckamonic and Kise I'm guessing are town, too.
-I remember being suspicious of T-Bone.

That said, I need to read the whole game, instead of skimming. I probably won't wall, actually. Takes three times longer to type than it does to read.

mastin2 · Post Post #1465 (isolation #2) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 4:14 pm

Personally, I don't see why it'd be necessary. (Since I thought Tclawren looked town, and therefore shouldn't be forced to claim.)

Anyway, going to start reading up on the game.

Preview-Edit:

Gah, I told you so. >_<

mastin2 · Post Post #1466 (isolation #3) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 4:16 pm

gorilla <--Looked like a mislynch to me.
T-Bone <--Agreed.
Nachomamma8 <--Wait, Nacho's in this game? Did not really notice him. (Hmmm...)
Chronopie <--Neutral.
MrZepher <--I believe Zepher looked like a mislynch to me.

Of course, I'd like to read the whole game before voting, 'cause skim-reads are rarely very accurate.

mastin2 · Post Post #1471 (isolation #4) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 4:35 pm

The extra Neighbors claim, if they exist.

mastin2 · Post Post #1473 (isolation #5) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 5:28 pm

Bah. Just lost my post. It was covering the first five pages. But essentially, my reads boiled down to this:

-Bri (powerrox, now) is practically confirmed town.
-tclawren is town.
-T-Bone is scum.
-Nacho is scum.
-Gorilla is a possible jindori buddy.
-Before replacing in, I had a strong read on Charlie. Unfortunately, this read was made nearly a week ago, and I have since forgotten whether it was a strong town read or a strong scum read. Krob's play in the early-game makes me slightly lean towards the latter.
-Kise is town.
-So is C-worl.

Think that covers the highlights. Might've been more. But it's essentially...

2. ConSpiracy <-- ? (I was in the process of determining ConSpiracy's alignment. I believe he was leaning scum.)
4. Charlie * kr0b <--Strong read which I've since forgotten, leaning towards scum.
7. Reckamonic RayFrost <--Town.
10. gorilla ** <--Possible jindori buddy.
11. T-Bone <--Scum.
12. Nachomamma8 ** <--Scum.
13. Pine <--BAD Idea for me to read.

15. Chronopie ** <-- ?
16. Kise * <--Town.
17. singersigner Shift <-- ?
18. implosion <-- ?
19. C-Worl <--Town.
20. MrZepher ** <-- ? (At the early stage of the game, at least.)
23. tclawren <--Town.
24. Powerrox93 bristep123 <--Town.

So, narrowing things down:

2. ConSpiracy <-- Scum? (Weak.)
4. Charlie * kr0b <--Scum?
10. gorilla ** <--Possible jindori buddy.
11. T-Bone <--Scum.
12. Nachomamma8 ** <--Scum.
13. Pine <--Ditto.
15. Chronopie ** <-- ?
17. singersigner Shift <-- ?
18. implosion <-- ?
20. MrZepher ** <-- ? (At the early stage of the game, at least.)

Eliminating the neutrals for now,

2. ConSpiracy <-- Scum? (Weak.)
4. Charlie * kr0b <--Scum?
10. gorilla ** <--Possible jindori buddy.
11. T-Bone <--Scum.
12. Nachomamma8 ** <--Scum.
^There's our scum.

Now, to continue my read.

mastin2 · Post Post #1475 (isolation #6) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 5:53 pm

Scum-lean.
Then again, T-bone pointing this out 1: makes me suspicious of Pine being T-bone's buddy, and 2: makes me doubt the Chrono suspicion.

The Mod wrote:Pine - 8 (
bristep123
, ConSpiracy,
Nobody Special
,
C-Worl
, Nachomamma8, Chronopie,
tclawren
,
Nero Cain
) L-5
C-Worl - 8 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim,
jindori
, SnakePlissken, MaxKojote
, Pine,
Lucresia,
[Moonstruck]
) L-5

Whoah. Both of these need some serious scumz on them. I can tell Nacho's scum on Pine, and jindori's scum on C-Worl, but there needs to be more than this! I suppose Moonstruck semi-counts, but still, that's only three and a half scum--I'd expect 1-2 more on here.
Names alive on the Pine Wagon:
Bristep (Powerrox), ConSpiracy, C-worl, Nacho, Chrono, tclaw.
-Bristep/Powerrox, C-worl, and tclaw are all town.
*Leaving ConSpiracy, Nacho, and Chrono.
~Nacho's scum; it's painfully obvious to me. But I still expect one more scum in there, minimum.

Names alive on the C-worl wagon:
RayFrost (Reckamonic), Pine.
-Wagon contains two scum.
*However, one of the scum is a third party.
~I'd still expect one more scum on here.
~Since Reckamonic's town, this doesn't look good for Pine.
=...Though my Pine reads are probably not the most reliable things in the world.

This is through page six. Let's see how my reads change. (They probably won't. First five are really the most important on getting into the game.)

mastin2 · Post Post #1477 (isolation #7) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 6:18 pm

...Every single word that I hear? Don't make me build a case for C-worl being town! You know how that goes... (I'm trying to keep things a little more concise when going solo.

)

mastin2 · Post Post #1479 (isolation #8) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 6:56 pm

ConSpiracy is good. Picks up on Chrono/Pine being suspicious. (One of Chrono/ConSpiracy is likely scum, after all.)

Bad posting. Suggests krob (now Charlie) scum. Again.

To be honest, not so fond of Shift (now singer) going after the two popular wagons of the time, C-worl and Pine.

C-Worl - 8 (

RayFrost

,

Seraphim, SnakePlissken, MaxKojote

, Pine,

Lucresia,

[Moonstruck]

, Shift) L-5
^Still contains scum. Can only be {RayFrost/Reckamonic, Pine, Shift/Singer}, 1-2 of which are scum. And since Reckamonic isn't it...

...Yeah. Lookin' real bad for Pine, and now Singer as well.

This single post resets kr0b back to neutral (was leaning scum). (I wish I could remember which side of the spectrum my strong read was on... :/)

T-bone's post is pure scum. Not sure what to make of it from this, though. Makes me kinda want to say Chrono's town. Also slightly increases my Shift/singer suspicion.

-jindori is not the same scum faction as T-Bone. Quite positive of this.

Not too fond of gorilla here.

Jindori also backs up gorilla, increasing the link between them.

There's also a Shift-Jindori connection, but it looks like it's too obvious, like Shift is intentionally coaching Jindori. (As in, opposite scum team, but still scum coaching.)

Evidence Charlie's town, via predecessor's actions.

Shift's continuous defense of T-Bone seems rather scummy. Not sold on them being the SAME scum-team, but it DOES look like they're both scum.

C-Worl - 10 (

RayFrost

,

Seraphim, SnakePlissken, MaxKojote

, Pine,

Lucresia,

[Moonstruck]

, Shift,

tclawren

,

jindori

) L-3
^Still has 2-3 scum. Jindori is one. Moonstruck is half. That's still 1-2 scum needed. Can't be RayFrost or tclaw. Leaves us with Shift and Pine.

Will need to analyze this. Interaction with T-Bone AND Chrono.

Page 10 seems to mostly be C-worl against Jindori, but what's not those two is quite interesting.

mastin2 · Post Post #1480 (isolation #9) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 6:59 pm

To answer Pine:

C-worl is town for too many reasons.
-Gut. I looked at C-worl, and I saw him as town.
-Meta. C-worl's play here is consistent with what I know of C-worl from There Will Be Bloodshed.
-Wagons. Or rather, the wagon ON C-worl. There's no way it built that fast if it was on scum.
-General interactions with others. C-worl doesn't fit as scumbuddies with pretty much most of my scumreads.

Now if you don't mind, I still need to read fifty pages.

mastin2 · Post Post #1481 (isolation #10) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 7:51 pm

Chrono wrote:Highly likely that at least one of Krob and
TBone
are scum.

Guess who?

:goodposting:

RayFrost wrote:List o' townies:

NS
Chronopie
Implosion
t-bone
tclawren
gorilla
jindori

List o' teh scumz:

C-worl
bristep
krob

I can pretty much (though not completely) invert this list and have it be accurate:
Cworl, bristep (and replacement), kr0b (and replacement, currently) all town, jindori, Gorilla, Pine (later added to town-list), T-bone scum (with possible Chronopie).

T-bone wrote:@The Game.

You just lost it.

My Predecessor wrote:That said, his reaction was over-the-top and his general behavior isn't great.

Massive understatement.

Jindori's 'town list' wrote:Pine
Chronopie
gorrilla
shift
conspiracy

Right. These people are town to the wolf. Guess what that means?

(Coincidentally, everyone on said list is alive.)

Not sure how to read Zephr.

Searching out a bandwagon?

This looks poor.

Moving on to fifteen, so posting this.

mastin2 · Post Post #1483 (isolation #11) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 8:15 pm

I dunno. Just does. Though to be fair, you're near the bottom of the scumlist.

mastin2 · Post Post #1485 (isolation #12) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 9:48 pm

This seemed scummy.

This looks opportunistic, too.

This looks just as bad as the quote used.

I dunno why, but Zephr admitting he's stretching with his case, made on two people with some not-so-strong connections somehow makes me think he's town.

More :goodposting: from Zephr, calling out ConSpiracy.

Feelin' better about implosion.

Not particularly fond of gorilla's post, either.

C-Worl - 9 (

RayFrost

,

Seraphim, SnakePlissken, Eldritch Lord, Lucresia

,

tclawren

, Chronopie, MrZepher,

Lowell

) L-4
SnakePlissken - 7 (Shift,

Kise

,

Nobody Special

, ConSpiracy, implosion, gorilla,

jindori

)
The C-worl wagon's waxed and waned so many times that I haven't bothered to do VCA of it, but this Snake wagon is near its peak, I believe. A concerning number of scummy players on it, too. (Oh, and on C-worl, looks like one of Chronopie and Zepher is guaranteed scum; possible both are.)

Seriously, Why does Nacho live?

I don't know why you people ever got C-worl to L-1. C-worl's obv-town.

This is through 20, so posting.

mastin2 · Post Post #1486 (isolation #13) » Sat Apr 30, 2011 9:52 pm

ConSpiracy wrote:mastin, are you always posting so much?

Nope. I'm known for quality* (length) rather than quantity**.

I do, however, prefer to keep things as short as possible when replacing into a game and giving my thoughts summarized up as nicely as I can.

(*My posts tend to look quite nonsensical to others, but if people spend the absolutely-horrendously-huge amount of time to read them and attempt to understand them, once they've broken into "Mastin-speak" and know what I'm thinking about, they'll realize I actually have some tremendously-strong, useful, powerful information in my posts.
It's just hard to find 'cause I suck at communicating with others, which therefore makes it a maze of words that is too long for most to handle.

)

**Though I have been getting more active, recently. Mainly due to being reinvigorated, which is because of [REDACTED].

mastin2 · Sat Apr 30, 2011 10:21 pm

BAD posting. If Pine thought C-worl was scum,

He should have hammered,

right then and there

.
The extreme LACK of a hammer--and continued drive of C-worl as scum

even to this day

, is evidence that Pine never wanted to lynch C-worl, the convenient mislynch. Pine wanted to keep C-worl alive, for that eventual mislynch. Pine didn't want to look scummy for hammering. "Short days"?

B.S.

21 pages is by no means a short day. Especially when they were 12 days from deadline--that's not a short day. Especially with so many people having given it their all and those that hadn't dieing out naturally. (If that makes sense.)

Like you, Pine?

Pine's reaction seemed fake to me.
Oh, not the "WTF" part.
I'd do that as pretty much any alignment.

But the rest seems fake. Or rather, like it's containing rage inside. As if Pine's jindori's partner. (...

What?

It makes sense to

me

!

)

Of course, I'm probably not the only one who came to this conclusion, after Pine switched from going "LYNCH HIM!" hardcore, to complete and total defense.

Sounds like a faked reaction. Not necessarily that T-Bone is scum with Jindori, containing rage, but rather, it sounds faked in that it seems to be covering up joy. Just a vibe I got from it, that T-Bone sounded like he was silently celebrating the elimination of competition. (If you catch my drift...)

In fact, his followup reeks of opportunism. It's as if T-bone is silently shouting, "Score!"

I believe T-bone when he says he's in disbelief. It just sounds to me he's thinking, "I can't believe how lucky I am!"

Creates a gorilla link between Pine and, well, Gorilla.

Losing my coherence, so I think I'll stop posting for the night and not continue on to 25.

mastin2 · Post Post #1490 (isolation #15) » Sun May 01, 2011 5:30 am

Fun fact about Pine:
He's seen my play.
He KNOWS I have trouble explaining my reads.
He also is strawmanning my defense of C-worl, when I gave MULTIPLE reasons that pretty much every word C-worl was saying had me thinking town.
More than that, Pine's in the past

even acknowledged that I take firm reads

. The fact that he's conveniently 'forgot' all of this and thinks that my read is BS--when he should know very well and good that it's just my style to play this way--is quite condemning.

Nacho wrote:MASTIN!

Nice to see you, too, Nacho. Shame we replaced in as opposite alignments and you're scum.

I unfortunately do not have that much time on my hand, but I will do what reading I can.

mastin2 · Post Post #1492 (isolation #16) » Sun May 01, 2011 6:23 am

Reeks of bussing.

Note that shortly after gorilla (and T-Bone, for that matter, but see my previous posts) posts, jindori freaks out. It very well could be that Jindori was looking for guidance from his werewolf buddies--and when one/both of them got on HIS wagon, suggesting that he needed to die, he gave up all hope and thought HE needed to die because they said so.

(tclawren, T-Bone,

RaudhrGarm

, Powerrox93, gorilla)
^I don't think it'd be tclaw, and I don't think T-Bone is on the same side as Jindori. The other two, on the other hand...
(I still think Powerrox is town, but Gorilla...)

jindori wrote: i feel like i been cheated and backstabbed.

Fits with Gorilla being Jindori's partner.

I get the impression that Pine and T-Bone are both scum, but their interaction doesn't seem like bussing--it seems like scum, trying to press for a mislynch, unaware that their chosen target is of the opposite faction. (That's just an added bonus!)

This feels like goodposting.

Scumz.

While I would've preferred some of C-worl's own analysis, the information posted seems accurate enough, and sums up jindori interactions quite nicely. (Even if not fully accurate, viewing things through the filter of C-worl gives us good insight into C-worl's alignment. Vice-versa, too: if we know C-worl's alignment, seeing this post through C-worl's filter gives us a good insight into the game.) I will analyze it myself when I have more time to spare.

This is through 29, but I'm fresh out of time.

mastin2 · Post Post #1494 (isolation #17) » Sun May 01, 2011 7:08 am

I don't see how. This isn't even close to as much reasoning as I could give.

But, anyway, got a little under an hour--I think I can read another five or so pages. 30 it is!

mastin2 · Post Post #1495 (isolation #18) » Sun May 01, 2011 7:50 am

This reads badly.

Spoiler: Off-topic, to Pine

Side-note: analyze the C-worl L-1 wagon and find the scum on it. Pine's an honorary member of the wagon, just for the record, even if he didn't hammer.

There is a difference between scum sarcasm and town sarcasm. Gorilla does not display the latter.

This is not a town way to react to someone shaking your confidence in a read. At least, not if you're town.

Scum reaction.

It's gotten to the point where it's

extremely

tempting to call Gorilla and Pine as Jindori's scumbuddies. (It fits so well.) On the other team, I'd say T-Bone and Nacho, with one more I have yet to determine.
-TBone is not on the same team as Jindori; that's obvious. But he's still obv-scum.
-Gorilla is on Jindori's team, almost guaranteed.
-That leaves one slot open. Jindori, Gorilla, and...who?
-Nacho is possible to be a partner, but it doesn't seem to mesh that well.
-Additionally, while Pine being scum with T-Bone CAN fit, it doesn't feel as natural as them being scum on opposite sides. Which feels extremely natural.

That's through 34. I'm not seeing anything which looks favorable to Gorilla. Or to Pine. Or to T-Bone. Or to Nacho.

Seriously, you guys have slacked off this game so much if you've let all these obvscum live.

mastin2 · Post Post #1523 (isolation #19) » Sun May 01, 2011 6:16 pm

I'm not on this computer long before I switch to my laptop, when I'll continue this.

TBone wrote:It's funny how you can come on and immediately find 4 scum. You're amazing.

Yes. When I choose to be. Amazing, how good I am once I decide to stop sucking, eh?

However I won't put much stock into your reads, because you replaced into a predecessor's slot who fairly much acted like scum, and that I'm town.

Lots of people in this game replaced lurkers. Lots of people in this game HAVE been lurkers.
What singles Lowell out? The fact that suddenly, his replacement is suspicious of you?

There's a word for that:

OMGUS.

I think what you're doing is picking 4 different people with varying levels of activity and hoping something will stick. Pine? Very active. Me? Little less active. Gorilla? Semi-active. Nacho? Not active at all.

No. I'm picking who the scum are, simple as that. I can give reasons for all of them.

Nacho--among others, Meta. I've played with him before, and have freakin' hydra'd with him in three games. I think I know scum-Nacho from town-Nacho. This is scum-Nacho.
You--obvious.
Pine--explained.
Gorilla--also explained.

So I can throw some shit at the wall and see if something sticks, and then quietly fade into the background on Day 4, scoff free.

No. I'm sticking to ALL of these. And I'm going to push it through.

Out of time--see you in under half an hour. When I will resume, finish responding to T-Bone, and point out a contradiction I just spotted in Gorilla's posts. (See if you can find it, first.)

mastin2 · Post Post #1530 (isolation #20) » Sun May 01, 2011 7:09 pm

Spoiler: T-Bone's Post Stuff

Gorilla wrote:mastin trying to connect me to jindori + pine is bunk, if you really think a scum player, even a newbscum player is going to put their entire team in a townlist then :/ is all I have to say in response. It's just as possible you'll see no real connections between jindori and his teammates when all is said and done.

Gorilla wrote:jindori listed kr0b as mafia. Not really feeling him as a potential partner.

A-hem. "We can't use anything Jindori says when it implicates me as scum, but we CAN use anything Jindori says when it implicates someone ELSE as scum!" That's essentially what Gorilla just said to me. HUGE contradiction, and EXTREMELY scummy.

For the record?

The Mod wrote:tclawren - 6 (implosion, ConSpiracy, Pine, C-Worl, Reckamonic, Chronopie) L-3

This wagon needs to die. Quickly.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I've got some effing reading to do.

I think I've conclusively shown my stances hold solid. (Heck, when I get caught up, I might go through the trouble of making cases on 'em. Nacho since you people have ignored that scum for too long, T-Bone since you can't seem to see the simple fact that he IS scum, and Gorilla because there's no current support there. Pine, eh, kinda explains itself, that read.

If you're not convinced by the time I've done the other three, I suppose I'd make one for Pine as well.)

mastin2 · Post Post #1532 (isolation #21) » Sun May 01, 2011 7:20 pm

Fine. TL;DR of why I haven't done the VCA?

Because I'm saving it.

FOR AFTER I

GET FREAKIN CAUGHT UP IN THE THREAD!

VCA is my greatest weapon. I've used it WHEN it implicated me. (First game as Calcifer. With those two scumteams. It was a Large Normal. I was doing VCA, and pointed out very accurately where the scum on the wagons were placed--I used it as evidence against other players, but if people read the posts carefully, they would've realized that the VCA actually was me essentially giving them my entire scumteam.

) I wrote a Guide on how to use it.

I save it for after I've gotten caught up, after I've established reads.

For one simple reason:

Reads gotten from VCA are rarely correct. Reads gotten from the thread, which are backed up by VCA are almost always correct.

The accusation of me not using it when it'd implicate me is BS. Since
-I'd use it anyway
-And I WILL use it. WHEN I FREAKIN NEED TO.
Now

stop distracting me!

I need to get work done on this game, and this BS argument on me about VCA has slowed that down.

(Know what? I'm going to ignore posts made by my scumreads. Since I know Pine is aware I am easily distracted, and might be trying to divert my attention from my read because he knows that it'll delay me.)

mastin2 · Post Post #1536 (isolation #22) » Sun May 01, 2011 7:58 pm

Now where did I leave off before I got distracted?

Ah, yes. Page 35.

The Mod wrote:SnakePlissken - 6 (implosion,
RaudhrGarm
,
Kise
, T-Bone, gorilla, MrZepher)

By now, the Snake wagon has grown to the point where it needs 2 scum, one from each faction. But no more.
This suggests
-T-Bone is one faction of scum.
-Gorilla is the other.
-Implosion, Kise, and Zepher are all town.

On to fourty.

mastin2 · Post Post #1537 (isolation #23) » Sun May 01, 2011 8:32 pm

Bussing.

The Mod wrote:SnakePlissken - 12 (
RaudhrGarm
,
Kise
, T-Bone, gorilla, MrZepher,
C-Worl
,
Lowell
, Nero Cain, ConSpiracy,
tclawren
, Nachomamma8,
Eldritch Lord
)

Lynch wagon. Since the last time I did my analysis, only thing changed is that now there should be 1-2 more scum on than before. Nacho's one of them.

To my knowledge, the whole extent of Pine's Lowell suspicion rests in a single post. Which is never followed through on...until I express suspicion on Pine. (Then again, still have a little under twenty pages of catch-up.)

Know what this is? The classic "buddy and two townies" scum list: scum lists their scumbuddy along with two other people not on their team as their choice for scum.

It's quite the clever strategy. (I picked it up from ZazieR when Zazie was coaching Haylen, in the Vengeful I modded.)

It's also incredibly obvious once you know to look for it.
Which I do.

On to 45. After which, I might retire for the night; I'm losing my coherence.

RaudhrGarm - 5 (

tclawren, Reckamonic, C-Worl

, ConSpiracy, Nachomamma8)
^Guess what? We've finally got scum on this wagon. Four, can be all town. (Even if kinda doubtful.) Five, scum. Guaranteed.

By the end of 45, there's like three or four votes extra, but I'm too tired to figure out the exact number and who it is, and don't want to go to the next page (since if I do, I'll compulsively read it all) despite it almost-certainly having a votecount there. But it does seem like Garm has extra scum. And I know who.

Posting. I need to sleep before I continue, sorry.

mastin2 · Post Post #1543 (isolation #24) » Mon May 02, 2011 7:53 am

Resuming from 46.

RaudhrGarm - 7 (

tclawren, Reckamonic, C-Worl

, ConSpiracy, Nachomamma8, gorilla, T-Bone) L-3
^Huh? Coulda sworn that there were more on this wagon. Ah, well. Still contains 2-3 scum.

Which--in this case--is Nacho, Gorilla, and T-Bone.

RaudhrGarm - 8 (

tclawren, Reckamonic, C-Worl

, ConSpiracy, Nachomamma8, gorilla, T-Bone, Pine) L-2
^Two scum from each faction! And look, they think they're spread out between two townies, when ironically, it's a solid block of scum! Other faction, Werewolf, Other faction, Werewolf!

tclawren - 6 (

Kise

,

Lowell, Eldritch Lord

, singersigner,

RaudhrGarm

,

Nacho,

)
^Oh, look, we've got scum!

RaudhrGarm - 6 (

tclawren, Reckamonic, C-Worl

, gorilla, T-Bone,

quadz08

) L-4
tclawren - 6 (

Kise

,

Lowell, Eldritch Lord

, singersigner,

RaudhrGarm

, Nachomamma8) L-4
^A more formal votecount. Between these wagons, we get four scum, two on each. Gorilla and T-Bone, Garm (technically) and Nacho.

Singer wrote:While I understand the logic behind saying this, bad play is bad play. Sometimes it just looks scummy, and now it's our job to figure out which is which (way to go).

This reminds me of active-lurking-scum-singer in a newbie game.

For the record? This was horrible reasoning:
If the town directs the SK kills, then they're essentially killing people who would have been lynched the next day: if they hit town, that's no different from a town mislynch. Horribad logic. The only time to lynch a SK is when 1: it's too close to lylo, or 2: they go off of their chain and kill someone they were not supposed to.

Otherwise, leashing the SK and directing the kills is effectively an extra town lynch.

I never saw anyone go,

Raud: Please Kill...

I saw some people whisper, "Raud's intending to kill these people, who I think are town." I never saw people actually DIRECTING the SK. Lots of debate, some fears of Raud killing the wrong person...
...But nobody suggesting who he SHOULD kill.
WTH, people. I'll be reading more into this debate, 'cause I'm clearly seeing scum speaking, here.

mastin2 · Post Post #1546 (isolation #25) » Mon May 02, 2011 8:29 am

Like this. "Directing the SK can never go right! They'll always shoot wrong!" (No more so than the town. Heck, I've seen SKs who single-handedly wiped out almost the entire scumteam: the town kept mislynching and probably would've lost had it not been for the most-generous SK who shot almost every single scum. True, I've also seen SKs hit town, when they were being directed...but those targets were people who would've been mislynched, anyway, within a day or two.)

This. Oh so much this.

Pine: 3 (Kise, RaudhrGarm, C-Worl)

Sad. Not that they made this. That it didn't go through. It really shoulda. (If everyone had done this, like rational people should've, then Garm didn't need to be lynched. But noooooo, the scum were AFRAID of it...)

RaudhrGarm - 8 (

tclawren, Reckamonic, C-Worl

, gorilla, T-Bone,

quadz08, Lowell

, Pine) L-2
Gorilla, T-Bone, and Pine are the only people on this wagon who aren't pretty much confirmed town.

Kise wrote:SingSing is looking like scum all a sudden, why are you pushing buttons?

Valid.

Casual attitude from singer really is looking bad.

RaudhrGarm - 9 (

tclawren, Reckamonic, C-Worl

, gorilla, T-Bone,

quadz08, Lowell

, Pine, Chronopie) L-1
^To be honest, I'm not too fond of how few scum there are on here. Three. I'd expect one more. Might be Chrono.

Wants to lynch SK:

C-Worl
,
quadz
, gorilla,
lowell
,
powerrox
, T-Bone, Pine,
Reckmon, TC
, Chronopie

As Garm stated, this list contains serious scum. I see three. It's possible there's a fourth.

RaudhrGarm - 9 (

tclawren, Reckamonic, C-Worl

, gorilla, T-Bone,

Lowell

, Pine, Chronopie,

RaudhrGarm

) L-1
^Backs this up quite nicely.

Getting rid of a second lynch is totally town, too!

Linked, because this is among the most scummy reactions to the claim there is, ignoring the obvious logic behind letting the SK live on a leash. Number of kills at night is irrelevant. If you do the math, Garm acting as a second lynch actually SAVES lives.

Garm kept alive:
One town-choice death during the day.
One town-choice death during the night.
Two scum-choice dead during the night.

End result: two obv-town dead, two suspects dead.
Repeat.
Four obv-town dead, four suspects dead.

Garm killed:
One town-choice dead during the day.
Two scum-choice dead during the night.
End result: two obv-town dead, one suspect dead.
Repeat.
Four obv-town dead, and only two suspects dead.

Essentially, Garm could've doubled our efficiency.

Gorilla's Charlie vote looked bad. However...

T-Bone wrote:^^reason?

Might be "why are you voting for my buddy?"

:goodposting:

That's through 54. I think I can get caught up in one final sweep.

mastin2 · Post Post #1547 (isolation #26) » Mon May 02, 2011 9:02 am

Scumz.

Remember when I first came into the game, and thought that Gorilla wasn't a good lynch? It was because of this. Gorilla's correct about the speed of the wagon being alarming. Jumping ahead to the votecount:
Charlie - 4.5 (

Kise

, ConSpiracy,

C-Worl, Powerrox93

,

Gorilla

)
This might be evidence of Conspiracy scum, but I'm not sold on this wagon having more than one scum. (Gorilla.)

C-Worl - 2 (

Reckamonic

, MrZepher,

Lowell

, Pine)
^Guess who the scum here is?

Blatant bandwagoning.

LFT. (QFT, only linked.

)

I'm going to take a wild stab in the dark and guess that C-worl being able to guess the code means it has something to do with their combined off-site experience, something common there which MSers don't know about.

Irony.

tclawren - 5 (implosion, ConSpiracy, Pine,

C-Worl, Reckamonic

) L-4
^Guess where the scum are? No more than two at this point, but I have this sneaking suspicion it's only one. Anyone want to venture a guess as to who?

Scumz.

Hey mafias or werewolves, will you kill Charlie tonight? kthx...

Nah, we can just leave Charlie to the SKOHWAITNOWECAN'TCAUSEYOULYNCHEDHIM!

Liking this post.

Tclaw's scumlist wrote:gorilla
T-Bone
Nachomamma8
Chronopie
MrZepher

Upon review, remarkably accurate.

tclawren - 8 (implosion, ConSpiracy, Pine,

C-Worl, Reckamonic

, Chronopie, MrZepher,

Kise

) L-1
^I'm really concerned, now. I've only got one scumread on this wagon; I'd expect at least two.

This is through 59. I don't think there's not much more to comment on from there which I haven't done already.

mastin2 · Post Post #1549 (isolation #27) » Mon May 02, 2011 9:22 am

I can't decide if this is bussing, going after an easy mislynch, or a combination of the two (bussing an easily-lynched partner). Also, note how T-Bone is selectively scum-hunting.
He rules out kr0b/Charlie being a member of the other scumteam, and mentions specifically the werewolves.

T-Bone wrote:#1532. I know you're interested in meta, but defending your own meta is meaningless to the game.

I'm not defending my meta as being town. I'm pointing out that you're attacking my playstyle, things I do every game which are quite null. And anyone who's played with me will observe that every scumtell you listed against me is just my style. (Unfortunately, it would appear two of the people who could most back me up--Pine and Nacho--are scum, so they probably won't.)

Also, T-Bone's reliance on Nacho is a clear link between 'em.

This sounds like someone is giving up.

Nope. Just was waiting until I had finished my read (which I have, now) before paying attention to the people clearly trying to distract me.

The Mod wrote:tclawren - 4 (implosion, ConSpiracy, Reckamonic, Chronopie)
Charlie - 3 (T-Bone, Kise, Powerrox93)
Chronopie - 3 (gorilla, MrZepher, C-Worl)
MrZepher - 2 (Nachomamma8, tclawren)
mastin2 - 2 (Pine, Charlie)

By Lorthia, you guys suck. All of these wagons are Horribad.

TClaw--might as well be confirmed-town.
Zepher--very-doubtfully scum.
Me--obviously not scum.

Charlie&Chrono: Admittedly?
It's possible either are.
Possible. But I am not confident enough in either of them to be the fourth scum to lay down a vote. Instead, let's get some real scum lynched.

Vote: T-Bone

.

There. Now we have a winning wagon!

mastin2 · Post Post #1560 (isolation #28) » Mon May 02, 2011 1:36 pm

T-Bone wrote: I'm using Nacho to back me up...hold on a sec, you continue to say "Nacho knows how I play" Pot, meet kettle, he's black.

No. I pointed out who would know me best, but specifically said that they probably wouldn't, 'cause they're scum.

C-worl's played with me once before.
So has singersigner.
Kise played with me years ago, and saw me briefly as scum in one game, and [REDACTED]. So, Kise's impression of me is outdated.
Both halves of Reckamonic were my partners briefly as scum in the same game as Kise, and both halves also played with me in the past; again, they're pretty outdated.
Nacho's been in almost every game I've been in since my return, and this is my third game with Pine, who plays (at least, played) similarly enough to me that he got inside of my mind in our first game, pretty much.

Hence, Nacho and Pine are the best two (but not the only two), yet they're unfortunately both scum this game, which is why I expected they wouldn't.

You, on the other hand, called out a single name--Nacho--to defend yourself. More than that, your read on Nacho is...what is it, again? Well, it certainly isn't a scumread; I know that much from your posts.

Wait, how can you call me calling you out OMGUS, but then vote me because I am calling you out? Hypocrite. At least don't fall under the same accusations you're spitting out.

What.
No, seriously.
What.

I called you out. You started thinking I'm suspicious. That's OMGUS.
I follow through with my suspicion--started BEFORE your suspicion--and placed a vote.
That's not OMGUS'ing you due to your suspicion on me.
That's me having finally caught up and laying down my vote where it needs to be:
On my number one suspect.

I really think based on your first post that you are picking random names and then only seeing what you want to see.

I'm calling it as I see it. Simple as that. If I have a scumread, I'll point it out. Got a town-read, I'll point it out. And what I've seen so far has consistently painted you as scum, on the opposite team of Jindori.

Nothing I've seen from you has convinced me otherwise.

My other reads? They've all done something which at least throws for a second my suspicion into doubt. Gorilla noting the fast wagon, Pine's attitude in certain areas, Nacho's latest post had something in it (dunno what) make my gut briefly go "town?", etc.

Nope, not you.

Consistently, you've been showing yourself to be scum, and I'm not going to stop pushing you until you're lynched.

T-Bone wrote:So you come out suspicious of me without reading the game?

And here's where your theory falls apart:
I had skimmed the game before replacing in.
Read entire blocks of pages, skimmed-but-read many more, read every-third-or-so-page, reading all-of-the-last-five-pages, etcetera. Things like that.
It wasn't enough to get concrete reads, but it was enough to give me a good general view of the game immediately upon replacing in. I had those reads from this skim, and when I did a more solidified read of the game rather than a skim, some of them changed. Gorilla went from "looks like a mislynch" into "scum", for instance.

Nacho wrote:What's so terrible about that post?

Not in the mood to explain, after responding to T-Bone. Remind me later.

They're more akin to an addiction;

This is an interesting way to describe it, but upon thinking about it, Nacho's right; it's sadly very true. :/
(I'm an Obsessive Compulsive Wallposter!

)

Posting. I think after this, I'll do proper VCA of the whole game. And by "Proper", I mean "Mastin-style". Since traditional VCA leaves gaps.

mastin2 · Post Post #1561 (isolation #29) » Mon May 02, 2011 2:17 pm

Fortunately, the mod has given votecounts so consistently that I'm pretty much considering a nomination for Smoothe Operator after the game is over.

This means I have a lot of VCs to work with.

The Mod wrote:RayFrost - 2 (
Kise, C-Worl
)
Shift - 1 (gorilla)

gorilla - 1 (Nobody Special)
bristep123 - 1 (SnakePlissken)

MaxKojote - 1 (
RayFrost
)

Nobody Special - 1 (Lowell)
Chronopie - 1 (MaxKojote)
kr0b - 1 (Nero Cain
)

Since there are seven scum in this game (three on each side, serial killer), I'd expect 2-3 scum voting at this time. (24 players. 9 of them voting. That's 37.5% of the players. Since there are 7 scum, that figures that 2.625 of 'em--rounded up or down, that's two or three--are voting.)

Unfortunately, I only see one which is. Makes me wonder.

The Mod wrote:Nobody Special - 3 (
Lowell
,
Kise
, ConSpiracy)
C-Worl - 3 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim,
jindori
)
RayFrost - 1 (
C-Worl
)
Shift - 1 (gorilla)

gorilla - 1 (Nobody Special)
bristep123 - 1 (SnakePlissken)
Chronopie - 1 (MaxKojote)
jindori - 1 (Nero Cain)

Pine - 1 (
bristep123
)

3-4 scum voting. Jindori's one of them. This VCA also suggests Gorilla is one. Still leaves one more, and it's looking like ConSpiracy.

There's more reasoning to this than you think:
There's seven (1) wagons. Combined, you'd expect AT LEAST one scum in there. (Gorilla.) There's also two (3) wagons. Which--when combined--make a single (6) wagon, which you'd expect 1-2 scum on. (Average of 1 scum on each.)

Jindori takes care of the C-worl scum. But NS could use one--and that'd be ConSpiracy.

Nobody Special - 4 (
Lowell
,
Kise
, ConSpiracy, implosion)
C-Worl - 4 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim,
jindori
, SnakePlissken
)
RayFrost - 1 (
C-Worl
)
implosion - 1 (gorilla)
gorilla - 1 (
Nobody Special)
Chronopie - 1 (MaxKojote)

Pine - 1 (
bristep123
)
Nero Cain - 1 (T-Bone)
T-Bone - 1 (
tclawren
)

Not voting - 9 (
Nero Cain
,
kr0b
,
Lucresia
, Nachomamma8, Chronopie, Shift, MrZepher,
[Moonstruck]
, Pine)

By now, you should know the routine: 4-5 scum voting, 2-3 not. ("...That doesn't quite fit the numbers..." Well, at this point, "Not Voting" has become pretty much a choice: a wagon of its own. And on a wagon of nine, you'd expect 2-3 scum.) This obviously incriminates Nacho and Pine as the three scum with Moonstruck.

That leaves four scum voting. You'd expect two scum on the main two (4) wagons, now a single 8 wagon. No more, though--with small scumteams, you don't want to risk more than half your members on a single wagon! My choices remain unchanged for who these two are. Jindori is obviously one, and ConSpiracy looks like the other. As for the two scum not on those two (4) wagons, this is obviously Gorilla and T-Bone, who are both (1) voters, which combine to make a single 7 wagon, which--yup--should have exactly that many scum on it, two.

Looking like the scumteams at this point are {ConSpiracy, Nacho, T-Bone} and {Jindori, Gorilla, Pine}.

The Mod wrote:Pine - 8 (
bristep123
, ConSpiracy,
Nobody Special
,
C-Worl
, Nachomamma8, Chronopie,
tclawren
,
Nero Cain
) L-5
C-Worl - 8 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim,
jindori
, SnakePlissken, MaxKojote
, Pine,
Lucresia,
[Moonstruck]
) L-5
Nobody Special - 3 (
Lowell
,
Kise
, implosion)
implosion - 1 (gorilla)
Nero Cain - 1 (T-Bone)

Not voting - 3 (kr0b, Shift, MrZepher)

As large as they are, no more than 4-5 scum are on the two (8) wagons at this point. The reason why is quite simple: you don't want to risk your entire scumteam on the lead two wagons. (ESPECIALLY if one of them contains your buddy.)

On Pine, this suggests ConSpiracy and Nacho. On C-worl, it suggests Pine. Doubly-so, because guess what?
Jindori is on C-worl rather than Pine, AND is voting WITH Pine, making a Jindori-Pine connection.

That's still 2 scum off the wagon, though. You definitely expect one scum in the (1) voters (Gorilla, T-Bone), but I'd also expect one scum in the two (3) wagons. (Yes, "Not Voting" counts as a wagon!) Coincidentally, a lot of those players are or were lurkers. So, uh, not sure I can find the scum in there if existing.

Pine - 9 (
bristep123
, ConSpiracy,
Nobody Special
,
C-Worl
, Nachomamma8, Chronopie,
tclawren
,
Nero Cain,
jindori
) L-4
C-Worl - 8 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, MaxKojote
, Pine,
Lucresia,
[Moonstruck]
, Shift) L-5
Nobody Special - 3 (
Lowell
,
Kise
, implosion)
implosion - 1 (gorilla)
Nero Cain - 1 (T-Bone)

Not voting - 2 (kr0b, MrZepher)

Not much has changed, other than an additional vote on C-Worl and Jindori moving to Pine. I'll need to see the context of that vote to make conclusions from it, but initial thoughts are "BUSSING BIG TIME!". But, still, with 9 votes, Pine has 3 scum on him at this point: two from the opposite faction, one from his own, bussing. (Jindori.)

Other than that, unchanged--this VCA suggests two scum on C-worl (Pine, Moonstruck), and 2 scum off. (I WANT to say Gorilla AND T-Bone, but not sure it's both. If I had to choose, it'd be T-Bone, though.)

I'm going to eat; when I return, I'll resume from Votecount Eight.

mastin2 · Post Post #1566 (isolation #30) » Mon May 02, 2011 3:50 pm

Spoiler: On Me replacing in

T-Bone wrote:I won't get lynched today because guys like Chronopie and Charlie are better lynches

No. Chrono and Charlie are both POSSIBLE scum. Chrono moreso than Charlie. But neither are guaranteed scum.
Like you are.

You. Need. To Die.

Today

.

Fact. You made random accusations before analyzing the thread.

Fact: I skimmed the thread before so much as asking the mod to replace in. And then, posted my reads. And THEN started to analyze the whole read. That's not 'random accusations'. That's "accusations made off of partial information".

Spoiler: About VCA (WARNING: SUPER LONG)

Fact. You purposely skipped VCA on yourself until you were called out on it. Don't pretend for one second had I not pointed out what Lowell did, you would have continued to ignore it on purpose.

No. I do VCA whenever I dang-well feel like it. I have no obligation to use my greatest weapon at all times. If I use my trump-card for too many times in a row, it ceases to be my trump card, ceases to keep its value.
Heck. Normally, I don't do VCA AT ALL until I've caught up. I decided to do the Pine/C-Worl one because it was just that dang glaring, and continued to do it whenever the heck I felt like it after that. And when there was a single predominant wagon, I didn't feel like continuing to monitor the changes in a single wagon. It's also a huge time-sink: VCA takes me three times longer than a normal post. I was trying to catch up as quickly as I could, in order to meet a deadline in another game. VCA simply took too long. I didn't want to constantly waste my time when I was having difficulty enough catching up. I left reminders, however, about VCAs all throughout my posts:

Mastin wrote:Whoah. Both of these need some serious scumz on them. I can tell Nacho's scum on Pine, and jindori's scum on C-Worl, but there needs to be more than this! I suppose Moonstruck semi-counts, but still, that's only three and a half scum--I'd expect 1-2 more on here.

This is consistent with the VCA I just did, is it not?

^Still contains scum. Can only be {RayFrost/Reckamonic, Pine, Shift/Singer}, 1-2 of which are scum. And since Reckamonic isn't it...

...Yeah. Lookin' real bad for Pine, and now Singer as well.

This was obviously partial VCA. My full VCA is what you saw in this post, where I gave analysis on ALL wagons. Partial VCA is nice for getting a read earlier than I normally would. That's another reason why doing it becomes more obsolete the further into the thread I go: because I can get reads faster by looking at people's posts than people's votes. VCA early-game DOES give me quick reads, but VCA late-game takes far too much time.

Essentially, there's so, so, so, OH SO MANY reasons why VCA is something I save for later. I could write a whole MD article (if I didn't promise to retire from MD, that is) on just how, when, why, etc. to use partial, traditional, and full VCA. But here's not the time and place to talk about it. Oh, and for your convenience, more reasons which back up me NOT stopping because it would incriminate me, but rather, because I simply didn't feel like doing it at the time for ALL the reasons I've listed so far:

C-Worl - 10 (RayFrost, Seraphim, SnakePlissken, MaxKojote, Pine, Lucresia, [Moonstruck], Shift, tclawren, jindori) L-3
^Still has 2-3 scum. Jindori is one. Moonstruck is half. That's still 1-2 scum needed. Can't be RayFrost or tclaw. Leaves us with Shift and Pine.

-Wagons. Or rather, the wagon ON C-worl. There's no way it built that fast if it was on scum.

C-Worl - 9 (RayFrost, Seraphim, SnakePlissken, Eldritch Lord, Lucresia, tclawren, Chronopie, MrZepher,
Lowell
) L-4
SnakePlissken - 7 (Shift, Kise, Nobody Special, ConSpiracy, implosion, gorilla, jindori)

The C-worl wagon's waxed and waned so many times that
I haven't
bothered
to do VCA of it
, but this Snake wagon is near its peak, I believe. A concerning number of scummy players on it, too. (Oh, and
on C-worl,
looks like one of
Chronopie and Zepher is guaranteed scum
; possible both are.
)

HUGE one, there. Where I did a VCA which had Lowell on it. I didn't stop because it was 'incriminating'. As this analysis shows. I stopped becasue VCA at that stage of the game is a freakin' pain to do, especially with only one predominant constantly-shifting wagon.

I don't know why you people ever got C-worl to L-1.

BAD posting. If Pine thought C-worl was scum, He should have hammered, right then and there.

^That's VCA, too.

Mastin wrote:I will analyze it myself when I have more time to spare.

Not on VCA, but still shows that I DO put some things off when I simply don't feel like doing them at that moment. (Speaking of which, I still need to do this.)

Side-note: analyze the C-worl L-1 wagon and find the scum on it. Pine's an honorary member of the wagon, just for the record, even if he didn't hammer.

Mastin wrote:(First game as Calcifer. With those two scumteams. It was a Large Normal. I was doing VCA, and pointed out very accurately where the scum on the wagons were placed--I used it as evidence against other players, but if people read the posts carefully, they would've realized that the VCA actually was me essentially giving them my entire scumteam.)

Outdoosmen Mafia 2, for the curious. It's the second-to-last game in New York, right now. Read it, and you'll see that I don't give a *BEEP* about things like incriminating evidence on a VCA. I'll do it, anyway. Or are you people too lazy and want me to quote from another game to show how T-Bone's accusation holds no water?

The Mod wrote:SnakePlissken - 12 (RaudhrGarm, Kise, T-Bone, gorilla, MrZepher, C-Worl, Lowell, Nero Cain, ConSpiracy, tclawren, Nachomamma8, Eldritch Lord)
Lynch wagon. Since the last time I did my analysis, only thing changed is that now there should be 1-2 more scum on than before. Nacho's one of them.

Know what?

Screw this. I'm sick of compiling all this evidence which goes into great detail to prove

just how wrong T-Bone is

. I'll just accept that anyone with so much as HALF a brain will know that T-Bone's accusation is complete and total BS.[/quote]

Spoiler: On OMGUS'ing

T-Bone wrote:Fact. There is NOT a single town thing you have done thus far in this game.

How about nailing four of the five scum? VCA's what I'm using to find the fifth, of course. And if that doesn't work, I compiled all of these convenient notes on all the non-confirmed players.

Spoiler: Ranting on Walls

TL;DR of T-Bone's Accusations:

He's so wrong it's not even funny.

mastin2 · Post Post #1567 (isolation #31) » Mon May 02, 2011 3:55 pm

...And that worked up my apetite. Again. Going to eat once more. Then I'll resume my VCA without interruption, since I just remembered something:

I'm easily distracted (have made that rather obvious, haven't I?

), so I'll just ignore him until I finish.

mastin2 · Post Post #1573 (isolation #32) » Mon May 02, 2011 7:05 pm

C-worl, there's a subtle difference between town and scum play. I've written, like, three articles about the subject. Eventually, if you know where to look, you can pick out the differences. It's an extra layer of scum hunting.

To explain it on the surface level, on the traditional layer of scum hunting isn't too hard.
To explain the differences between when the scum and when the town does it on the surface level, on the level of tradtional scum hunting...well, then it gets a bit harder.

I'm a master of that sub-level, but have pretty much zero skills at the normal level.

(VCA is kinda like my bridge between levels. Traditional style VCA is on the normal level. My VCA goes a bit deeper, exploring the scum mechanics and how they interact on that sub-level, but doesn't go all the way down, so I can explain it in semi-rational terms. That's essentially why it's my best tool; it's the tool which makes the most sense to other people viewing my posts. Everything I say makes perfect sense to ME, after all.

I could ramble on all day about these subjects. But rather than clutter the thread, I think I'll do something productive and actually scum hunt. By resuming my VCA from where I left off.)

mastin2 · Post Post #1580 (isolation #33) » Tue May 03, 2011 6:23 am

The Mod wrote:C-Worl - 9 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, MaxKojote
, Pine,
Lucresia,
[Moonstruck]
, Shift,
tclawren
) L-4
Pine - 6 (
bristep123
, ConSpiracy,
C-Worl
, Nachomamma8, Chronopie,
Nero Cain
)
Nobody Special - 3 (
Lowell
,
Kise
, implosion)
implosion - 1 (gorilla)
Chronopie - 1 (T-Bone)

Not voting - 4 (kr0b, MrZepher,
jindori
, Nobody Special
)

Jindori takes care of the scum not voting, suggesting that krob (now Charlie) and Zepher are both town.
Pine likely has 2 scum on him, still.
I know there's at least two scum on C-worl (Pine, Moonstruck), but I'd actually expect a third. This looks worse for Shift. (To the point where I'd almost call a Singer/ConSpiracy-Nacho-TBone scumteam. One of Singer/ConSpiracy looks really bad by this VCA, so I definitely will be looking at their interactions with Nacho and T-Bone on my reread.)
'Course, that still leaves 1-2 scum not in those three main wagons (C-worl, Pine, Not Voting). T-Bone is my #1 choice.

The Mod wrote:C-Worl - 10 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, MaxKojote
, Pine,
Lucresia,
[Moonstruck]
, Shift,
tclawren
,
jindori
) L-3
Pine - 5 (
bristep123
, ConSpiracy, Nachomamma8, Chronopie,
Nero Cain
)
Nobody Special - 3 (
Lowell
,
Kise
, implosion)
implosion - 1 (gorilla)
Chronopie - 1 (T-Bone)
jindori - 1 (
C-Worl
)

Not voting - 3 (kr0b, MrZepher,
Nobody Special
)

(Of interesting note--The Pine wagon dieing out while the C-worl wagon remains is further evidence of Pine being scum.)
Still expect 1-2 scum on Pine. C-worl now has three scum for sure.
Remaining scum are off. The two or so remaining definitely means one of them is in the (1) wagons. (T-Bone.) My reads suggest Gorilla is the other, though VCA would suggest one of the people on the two (3) wagons is the last scum. (Do keep in mind, VCA is not 100% effective. It's, like, 90% effective and is the most efficient method of scumhunting I have, but it's not going to be completely accurate.)

C-Worl - 10 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, MaxKojote,
Pine,
Lucresia,
[Moonstruck]
, Shift,
tclawren
,
jindori
) L-3
Pine - 5 (
bristep123
, ConSpiracy, Nachomamma8, Chronopie,
Nero Cain
)
Nobody Special - 2 (
Lowell
, implosion)
Chronopie - 2 (T-Bone, kr0b)
implosion - 1 (gorilla)
jindori - 1 (
C-Worl
)

Not voting - 3 (
kr0b
, MrZepher,
Nobody Special
,
Kise
)

(

Slight typo, Mod

--kr0b is listed as Not Voting and on Chronopie at the same time.)
Alright, now this makes sense: one scum on the (2) wagons (T-Bone), one scum in the remainder (Gorilla), and the rest of the scum unchanged from the last votecount.

The Mod wrote:C-Worl - 10 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, MaxKojote
, Pine,
Lucresia,
[Moonstruck]
, Shift,
tclawren
,
jindori
) L-3
Pine - 5 (
bristep123
, ConSpiracy, Nachomamma8, Chronopie,
Nero Cain
)
Chronopie - 3 (T-Bone, kr0b,
C-Worl
)
Nobody Special - 1 (
Lowell
)
implosion - 1 (gorilla)
Lucresia - 1 (implosion)

Not voting - 3 (MrZepher,
Nobody Special
,
Kise
)

You can see why I stopped analyzing the primary wagon, no? It and Pine are unchanged. The secondary action, however, tells an interesting story: three (1) voters, one of which is scum. (Gorilla.) two wagons of (3) voters, which contains AT LEAST one scum (T-Bone). Probably no more, as the rest of the votecount is unchanged and therefore neither is the scum distribution.

Guess what?
I need to eat.
Again.
(Something about mafia games and apetites. >_<)

I'll resume from votecount twelve.

mastin2 · Post Post #1588 (isolation #34) » Tue May 03, 2011 7:44 am

The Mod wrote:C-Worl - 9 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, MaxKojote, Lucresia,
[Moonstruck]
, Shift,
tclawren
,
jindori
) L-4
Pine - 5 (
bristep123
, ConSpiracy, Nachomamma8, Chronopie,
Nero Cain
)
Chronopie - 3 (T-Bone, kr0b,
C-Worl
)
tclawren - 1 (
Lowell
)
implosion - 1 (gorilla)
Lucresia - 1 (implosion)
kr0b - 1 (Pine)

Not voting - 3 (MrZepher,
Nobody Special
,
Kise
)

(Whoah. Solid streak of town!) C-worl looks like he could have either two or three scum on him. Pine's unchanged. What has changed is that now there's an extra (1) wagon, which brings the number up to (4). There's definitely at least one scum in there; I'd wager two. Of course, there's still one scum in the (3) wagons. Heck, if I'm somehow wrong about there being two scum in the (1) wagons, it's possible there's two.

Skipping the next identical votecount.

C-Worl - 9 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, Eldritch Lord, Lucresia,
[Moonstruck]
, Shift,
tclawren
,
jindori
) L-4
Pine - 5 (
bristep123
, ConSpiracy, Nachomamma8, Chronopie,
Nero Cain
)
Chronopie - 2 (T-Bone, kr0b)
tclawren - 2 (
Lowell
,
C-Worl
)
Lucresia - 1 (implosion)
kr0b - 1 (Pine)

Not voting - 4 (MrZepher,
Nobody Special
,
Kise
, gorilla)

With the growth in the Not Voting wagon, we now have one scum, guaranteed, but no more. (Gorilla.) Pine and C-worl are unchanged, but there's now scum in the two (2) wagons. (T-Bone.) And--of course--scum in the two (1) wagons as well, for diversity. (Pine.)

Again, I'd like to emphasize how Zepher looks pretty town by this VCA. So does implosion, as well as kr0b/Charlie (which means I do NOT support the Charlie wagon!) People looking bad are ConSpiracy, Shift, and Chronopie. I can almost guarantee you that the third non-jindori-team scum is in those three. (Teams at this point are obviously {Pine, Jindori, Gorilla} and {*Third*, T-Bone, Nacho}. I just need to determine who among ConSpiracy, Shift, and Chronopie is scum.)
It's to the point where I'm almost willing to call Zepher confirmed-town. kr0b/Charlie, not yet, but they're not going to be lynched today; I can assure you of that.

Next one's identical, too.

The Mod wrote:C-Worl - 8 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, Eldritch Lord, Lucresia
,
tclawren
,
jindori
, Chronopie) L-5
Pine - 4 (
bristep123
, ConSpiracy, Nachomamma8,
Nero Cain
)
Chronopie - 2 (T-Bone, kr0b)
tclawren - 2 (
Lowell
,
C-Worl
)
SnakePlissken - 1 (Shift)
Lucresia - 1 (implosion)
kr0b - 1 (Pine)

Not voting - 5 (MrZepher,
Nobody Special
,
Kise
, gorilla,
RaudhrGarm
)

Considering that Raud's an SK, it's not too large a stretch to say two scum on "Not Voting". Especially when combined with the Pine wagon to make a single (9) wagon, which you'd expect 3-4 scum in. (Nacho, Gorilla, Raud, possibly ConSpiracy.)
On C-worl, I'd expect to see two scum. There's Jindori, but there SHOULD be one more. (Chronopie?)

The smaller wagons are in this case the ones which look like they haven't changed: one scum on the two (2)s, one scum on the

two

three (1)s. (T-Bone and Pine, respectively.)

Of note, T-Bone on Chronopie day one is evidence of Bussing. There are two ideal times to bus:
-Day One.
-Mid to late-game, shortly before Lylo.

He bussed on day one, something which he promptly forgot about, until it gets closer to lylo, which causes him to resume the bussing against Chronopie. It's really condemning evidence against Chrono, creating a link between 'em.

'Course, I still need to check out the interactions from that time, see if it matches the theory I'm proposing: look at T-Bone's posts from that area, compared to the recent Chronopie attack.

Still, though. As bad as Chrono looks, he's just the main candidate of three to be the third on T-Bone's faction. While that is reason to lynch him, the fact that there are two other serious suspects leaves this too inconclusive for my tastes.

I'd still MUCH rather prefer to go for the confirmed-scum T-Bone. Or, heck, even Nacho, if there's support for a lynch on him.

The Mod wrote:C-Worl - 9 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, Eldritch Lord, Lucresia
,
tclawren
,
jindori
, Chronopie, MrZepher) L-4
SnakePlissken - 4 (Shift,
Kise
,
Nobody Special
, ConSpiracy)
Pine - 3 (
bristep123
, Nachomamma8,
Nero Cain
)
Chronopie - 2 (T-Bone, kr0b)
tclawren - 2 (
Lowell
,
C-Worl
)
Lucresia - 1 (implosion)
kr0b - 1 (Pine)

Not voting - 2 (gorilla,
RaudhrGarm
)

This is concerning. I know, Raud is a SK and therefore not tied to any faction. But with "Not Voting" at (2) votes, it now means we have to combine it with the other (2) wagons: which leaves us with a single (6) wagon, in which you'd expect 1-2 scum. T-Bone is one, and Raud's another. Gorilla would make that single (6) wagon made up of half-scum, and that's quite frankly not what I'd expect.
Other than that, the minor wagons are the same: one scum in the (1) voters (Pine).
Pine still has one leftover scum (Nacho), but most of the scum have moved on to the primary two wagons:
One scum on Snake (Shift/ConSpiracy), two scum on C-worl (Chronopie, Jindori).

Arg. This makes no sense. Only ONE of Shift/ConSpiracy/Chronopie SHOULD be scum. Yet VCA is suggesting that Chrono and one of Shift/ConSpiracy are BOTH scum. >_<
Then again, (4) wagons--while normally containing one scum--don't always have scum, so I'd definitely lean Chronopie over the other two as being more suspicious.

The Mod wrote:C-Worl - 8 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, Eldritch Lord, Lucresia
,
tclawren
, Chronopie, MrZepher) L-5
SnakePlissken - 5 (Shift,
Kise
,
Nobody Special
, ConSpiracy, implosion)
Pine - 3 (
bristep123
, Nachomamma8,
Nero Cain
)
Chronopie - 2 (T-Bone, kr0b)
tclawren - 2 (
Lowell
,
C-Worl
)
kr0b - 1 (Pine)

Not voting - 3 (gorilla,
RaudhrGarm
,
jindori
)

...The eff? Two of three Not Voting being scum, I can see. (It's right there.

) All three? That boarderlines being impossible. ESPECIALLY if they're the same faction. Raud's an SK, so he doesn't count, but I've had Gorilla pegged as JINDORI'S partner this whole time--yet they're both unvoting, something tantamount to suicide for people looking to find connections. It seems so...wrong.
I'll need to ponder Gorilla later. Right now, the wolves are down one; the other team is not. So, I can save Wolf Hunting for later. ('Sides, I've still got Pine to lynch if I wanted a Wolf Lynch that badly.)

ANYWAY, T-Bone's scum in the (2) voters. This confirms kr0b as being pretty much guaranteed town, along with kr0b's replacement, Charlie. (Yes. This means,

All On The Charlie Wagon

Need

to get off!

)

Pretty much nothing else has changed. Chrono still looks like scum on C-worl (though I'm a bit concerned that on a wagon of 8, he's the ONLY one who looks like scum on C-worl), and Nacho's scum hanging far too long on the Pine wagon. (Why would he need to leave? He's not bussing; he's trying to lynch the opposite team.)
Snake still looks like he has one scum. Possibly to be two, but extremely doubtful, considering I'm not even sold on there being one scum.

Anyway, posting this so my bolded request isn't in the middle of a post. Will resume from 19.

mastin2 · Post Post #1589 (isolation #35) » Tue May 03, 2011 7:51 am

...

I hate this.

I'm hungry.

AGAIN.

Seriously, why is it that Mafia works up my apetite? (Maybe it's too much exercise for my brain?

)

mastin2 · Post Post #1591 (isolation #36) » Tue May 03, 2011 8:43 am

Alright. I've eaten. That ought to hold me at least 'til I post my next section of the VCA.

The Mod wrote:C-Worl - 8 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, Eldritch Lord, Lucresia
,
tclawren
, Chronopie, MrZepher) L-5
SnakePlissken - 6 (Shift,
Kise
,
Nobody Special
, ConSpiracy, implosion, gorilla)
Pine - 2 (
bristep123
, Nachomamma8)
Chronopie - 2 (T-Bone, kr0b)
tclawren - 2 (
Lowell
,
C-Worl
)
kr0b - 1 (Pine)

Not voting - 3 (
RaudhrGarm
,
jindori
, Nero Cain
)

...This makes so much sense, this votecount seems so perfect, compared to the last one messing up my entire reads, that I'm willing to accept the last one was a fluke.

First of all, Chrono's as good as confirmed scum, 'cause C-worl NEEDS scum on it, and he's really the only person it can be. Zepher (who I thought was town) MIGHT be scum because of this, too. But IF Zepher's scum, it'd have to be of the opposite faction as Chrono, since two scum on the same team wouldn't vote right next to each other.

Second off, Gorilla joining the Snake wagon means there's our one scum. It's possible to have two, but at this stage, I doubt it.

Next, there are three (2) wagons, meaning 2 scum there, too. That's T-Bone and Nacho, if you couldn't tell. Furthermore, if you combine the three (2) wagons into a single (6) wagon, AND THEN combine THAT with the OTHER (6) wagon, you get L-1. And on a wagon of 12, you'd expect 3-4 scum, which fits my reads perfectly.

Pine is, of course, scum remaining in the low-concentration-zone.

C-Worl - 9 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, Eldritch Lord, Lucresia
,
tclawren
, Chronopie, MrZepher,
Lowell
) L-4
SnakePlissken - 7 (Shift,
Kise
,
Nobody Special
, ConSpiracy, implosion, gorilla,
jindori
)
Pine - 2 (
Powerrox93
, Nachomamma8)
Chronopie - 2 (T-Bone, kr0b)
tclawren - 1 (
C-Worl
)
kr0b - 1 (Pine)

Not voting - 2 (
RaudhrGarm
, Nero Cain
)

This is concerning for gorilla-jindori. Jindori's vote is right next to Gorilla's. Again. (Was also this way in the Not Voting.) C-worl wagon remains unchanged, believe it or not: it should have two scum on it.
Scumz elsewhere remain the same. Pine for the (1)s, Nacho for the (2)s.

C-Worl - 12

.5

(

RayFrost

,

Seraphim, SnakePlissken, Eldritch Lord, Lucresia

,

tclawren

, Chronopie, MrZepher,

Lowell

, Nachomamma8,

Powerrox93, C-Worl

,

Pine

) L-1
SnakePlissken - 7 (Shift,

Kise

,

Nobody Special

, ConSpiracy, implosion, gorilla,

jindori

)
Chronopie - 2 (T-Bone, kr0b)
tclawren - 1 (Pine)

Not voting - 2 (

RaudhrGarm

, Nero Cain

)
Honorary member, Pine. You now expect 3-4 scum on this wagon. Nacho, Pine, and Chrono, possibly Zepher. Pine's officially the scum in the (1)s, even though he's an honorary member of the pseudo-C-worl lynchwagon. T-Bone is the scum from his scumteam which won't hop onto the wagon, as they won't risk all of their members on a single wagon. Same presumably applies for Snake and the other scumteam, since Pine can't jump on Snake without exposing their entire team to intense scrutiny. (If my theory's correct, anyway.) He can, however, go onto C-worl, but I think I found the true reason he didn't hammer:
-He was afraid it'd make him scummy.
-He wanted town-points for NOT hammering. (Related.)

It's also possible if I'm wrong about Gorilla that he didn't want to risk exposing two members of his team on a single wagon, preferring they be spread out across three wagons as to minimalize the chance of catching all three. (If true, this'd mean Zepher's the third wolf, not Gorilla.)

Things are beginning to make sense. Gorilla/Zepher for the third wolf looks like it can work. Chronopie (mainly), POSSIBLY Shift/Singer or ConSpiracy as the third on the other team.
Jindori and Pine confirmed wolves, T-Bone and Nacho confirmed as on the other team.

I'm closing in on the truth, mesthinks.

The Mod wrote:C-Worl - 11 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, Eldritch Lord, Lucresia
, Chronopie, MrZepher,
Lowell
, Nachomamma8,
Powerrox93
) L-3
SnakePlissken - 7 (Shift,
Kise
,
Nobody Special
, ConSpiracy, implosion, gorilla,
jindori
)
jindori - 3 (
tclawren
, T-Bone,
RaudhrGarm
)
tclawren - 2 (
C-Worl
, Pine)
Chronopie - 1 (kr0b)

Not voting - 1 (
Nero Cain
)

Ironic, that Pine votes with C-worl. Anyway, still the same number of scum on C-worl (minus Pine): 2-3. Chrono, Nacho, and Zepher. (Chrono and Nacho on the same team, Zepher NOT on the same team.) This is post-jindori-claim, obviously. T-Bone JUMPS at the chance to do some legitimate scum-hunting and eliminate a member of his rival scumteam. Pine desperately tries to save Jindori, too, to the point where he's willing to work with his apparent mortal enemy, C-worl!

Posting. Will resume from 23.

mastin2 · Post Post #1594 (isolation #37) » Tue May 03, 2011 8:51 am

Chronopie wrote:UNVOTE: TC

If there are only two neighbours (one flipped town), it seems highly unlikely, as this is a two team game, that the other neighbour is scum. Three neighbours, and it may have been alot more plausible.

I was gonna say this, too, once I got done with the VCA. Looks like you beat me to it, though.

(Shame that I'm beginning to think you're scum.)

mastin2 · Post Post #1595 (isolation #38) » Tue May 03, 2011 8:58 am

Charlie - 3 (T-Bone, Kise, Powerrox93)
^Gonna jump ahead briefly and tell you right now that T-Bone attacking Chronopie, but choosing Charlie as the lynch over Chrono furthers the TBone-Chronopie link. Also, this is more reason Powerrox is pretty much confirmed town. VCA is suggesting a lot of the things my reads already were:

Zepher's not aligned with T-Bone and Nacho, Charlie is close to confirmed-town, and even tclaw is confirmed town. Especially with the claim. Additionally,
Chronopie - 3 (gorilla, MrZepher, tclawren)
^If Chrono's scum, it'd HAVE to be WITH T-Bone, not against T-Bone, since both my third-wolf suspects (Gorilla, Zepher) are on this Chrono wagon.

Sadly, I'm hungry...again...but when I grab another quite bite to eat, I'll resume.

mastin2 · Post Post #1596 (isolation #39) » Tue May 03, 2011 9:47 am

For the record: We shouldn't lynch Chronopie today. True. He's possible scum. And is my current pick as of this writing for the third member of the other team.

But he's not guaranteed scum. T-Bone today, Nacho tomorrow, Pine the day after that, and from there, we've got plenty of mislynches to find the final member of both teams. That's how things are going down.

I've seen it too many times.

People know some scum, but don't pursue them actively, simply because they want to nail the entire scumteam first, so hunt down loose ends.
Soon, they're in (or past) lylo, still having not found the rest of the scum due to mislynches they thought might have been the final member but weren't.

Instead of going on and immediately lynching their first choice for scum, they went for second, third, fourth, sometimes even FIFTH choices for scum, and lost the game because of it. (ESPECIALLY if they were wrong about their primary scum suspects, which all of the mislynches were making connections to.)

No. I'm not lynching Chronopie, a possible scum. Who's fourth or fifth on my scum list right now.

I AM lynching T-Bone, who is # 1 on my suspect list. And WHEN he flips scum, I'm going after Nacho, his buddy. And THEN I'll switch over to the Werewolves and lynch Pine. Only after I've eliminated those I KNOW to be scum will I be gunning for people who are POSSIBLE scum.

(That said, I still am going to be trying to FIND the final scum on both teams, which is what my VCA is doing. I'm simply not going to risk LYNCHING them until I've already lynched my # 1-3 suspects, T-Bone, Nacho, and Pine.)

I've got C-worl. I also seem to recall someone saying they'd go for T-Bone if there was a wagon. Well, guess what? There's a wagon, now.

We can do this: we can lynch scum today. If it's T-Bone instead of Chronopie, I can guarantee you a scumflip.

mastin2 · Post Post #1599 (isolation #40) » Tue May 03, 2011 4:28 pm

And I'm back.

The Mod wrote:C-Worl - 9 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, Lucresia
, Chronopie, MrZepher,
Lowell
, Nachomamma8,
Eldritch Lord
) L-4
SnakePlissken - 6 (Shift,
Kise
,
Nobody Special
, ConSpiracy, implosion, gorilla)
jindori - 4 (
tclawren
, T-Bone,
RaudhrGarm
,
Powerrox93
)
tclawren - 2 (
C-Worl
, Pine)
Chronopie - 1 (kr0b)
T-Bone - 1 (
jindori
)

Not voting - 1 (Nero Cain)

This effectively clears kr0b of being scum; Jindori takes care of the scum in the three (1) wagons. Pine's still scum, so desperate to save Jindori that he'd rather go along with his scumread--C-worl--than let Jindori go down without a fight. (Effectively, if Jindori wouldn't fight to live, he would fight for Jindori to live and rely on the wifom of "no scum'd be that stupid!" Sounds like a Pine-scum move to me.)

2-3 scum on C-worl, still: Nacho, Chrono, and Zepher? Nacho for sure, but not for sure on the other two. It'd certainly make sense, though.

T-Bone's the scum on Jindori. This takes care of 5-7 of the scum, leaving 0-2 on the Snake wagon.
Personally, it'd make sense for two scum on C-worl and one on Snake, suggesting Gorilla scum, but I'm not as positive on this as I once was.

C-Worl - 9 (
RayFrost
,
Seraphim, SnakePlissken, Lucresia
, Chronopie, MrZepher,
Lowell
, Nachomamma8,
Eldritch Lord
) L-4
SnakePlissken - 5 (Shift,
Kise
,
Nobody Special
, ConSpiracy, implosion)
jindori - 5 (
tclawren
, T-Bone,
RaudhrGarm
,
Powerrox93
, gorilla)
T-Bone - 2 (
jindori
, Pine)
Chronopie - 1 (kr0b)
tclawren - 1 (
C-Worl
)

Not voting - 1 (
Nero Cain
)

I'd expect one scum in the (1) voters, but apparently, there isn't any. There are, however, two (5) wagons: combined, that's a single (10) wagon, which needs 2-3 scum. C-worl has the same 2-3 scum as well. Leaving 1-3 scum left between the (1)s, and the (2).
Nacho's one scum on C-worl. Chrono and Zepher are still the possible others.
Jindori has T-Bone on it, and also has (possibly) Gorilla as scum, taking care of the minimum two. If there's a third in the two (5) wagons (which to me most likely would mean only two scum in the C-worl wagon), then it'd have to be the Snake wagon, where it could be one of--BUT NO MORE THAN ONE OF--{

Shift, ConSpiracy

, implosion}, heavily leaning towards one of the former two and not the latter one.

This of course leaves Jindori as confirmed scum off the wagon, taking care of the 1 minimum, but I personally believe that Pine fits perfectly as scum as well, since I find it hard to believe 6 of the 7 scum are on the lead-three wagons. 5, definitely; I can see that. 6 just seems like too many cards being put on the table, leaving nothing in reserve.

Also: T-Bone is not a wolf.

Pine - 3 (T-Bone,
C-Worl
,
RaudhrGarm
)
C-Worl - 2 (Eldritch Lord
, ConSpiracy)
T-Bone - 1 (Pine)
tclawren - 1 (
Nero Cain
)

1-2 scum voting by this point is what I'd expect. (((23-16)/23)*6 = 1.8somethingoranother, which is 1 or two, more likely, two.) One of them being the SK (and the lead wagon being on scum) means that I can MAYBE see an extra scum in there.
Still, this is evidence for T-Bone being scum, and ConSpiracy to NOT be.

Pine - 3 (T-Bone,
C-Worl
,
RaudhrGarm
)
C-Worl - 3 (Eldritch Lord
, ConSpiracy, Pine)
tclawren - 2 (
Nero Cain, Lowell
)
RayFrost - 1 (
Kise
)

2-3 scum voting. Same people: T-Bone, Pine, and of course, Garm.

C-Worl - 4 (
Eldritch Lord
, ConSpiracy, Pine,
RayFrost
)
Pine - 3 (T-Bone,
C-Worl
,
RaudhrGarm
)
tclawren - 2 (Nero Cain, Lowell)

RayFrost - 2 (
Kise
, gorilla)

Still 2-3, actually. This is slight evidence against Gorilla being scum, though considering one of the scum voting is the SK, I'm willing to accept a slight rule-bend in the VCA (as VCA is never 100% accurate.)
It's the same people. ConSpiracy is looking pretty town, T-Bone is confirmed scum, Pine's confirmed scum, and Gorilla could be scum.

C-Worl - 4 (Eldritch Lord, ConSpiracy, Pine, Reckamonic)
Pine - 3 (T-Bone, C-Worl, RaudhrGarm)
Reckamonic - 3 (Kise, gorilla, Nero Cain)
tclawren - 1 (Lowell)

While the positions might have changed,
The scum are still the same.

I don't even need to analyze this votecount, really. It pretty much speaks for itself, showing who the scum are without my aid. Pine on C-worl, T-Bone on Pine, possibly Gorilla on Reckamonic. (And Garm on Pine, too.)

Reckamonic - 4 (
Kise
,
Nero Cain, SnakePlissken, Lucresia)
C-Worl - 4 (Eldritch Lord
, ConSpiracy, Pine,
Reckamonic
)
Pine - 3 (T-Bone,
C-Worl
,
RaudhrGarm
)
tclawren - 1 (Lowell
)

Now there's 3-4 (albeit only just: 3.1 is a heck of a lot to round up to four.

) scum voting. With dueling wagons of 4 each, you pretty much need scum--I'd say 1-2 MINIMUM--on them. This is concerning, since I only see one--Pine. Of course, this still leaves T-Bone and Raud as scum, so we have our three scum voting at this stage in the game.

C-Worl - 4 (
Eldritch Lord
, ConSpiracy, Pine,
Reckamonic
)
Reckamonic - 3 (
Nero Cain, SnakePlissken, Lucresia
)
SnakePlissken - 3 (implosion,
RaudhrGarm
,
Kise
)
Pine - 2 (T-Bone,
C-Worl
)
tclawren - 1 (
Lowell
)
Kise - 1 (
tclawren
)

Still 3-4 scum. (3.6somethingoranother) A bit concerning how it should be getting closer to 4, yet I only see the same 3. Pine on C-worl, Garm on the (3)s (there should be at least one, but it's possible to have two...), and T-Bone on Pine. With none on the (1)s.

SnakePlissken - 4 (implosion,
RaudhrGarm
,
Kise
, T-Bone)
Reckamonic - 3
(Nero Cain, SnakePlissken, Lucresia)
tclawren - 3 (Lowell
, Pine,
C-Worl)
gorilla - 2 (tclawren
,
Eldritch Lord)
Kise - 1 (Nobody Special)

Nobody Special - 1 (ConSpiracy)
C-Worl - 1 (
Reckamonic
)

Okay, there really should be four scum voting at this point; the numbers said 3.9. Which is concerning, since I STILL see only the same three. THIS evidence points to there needing to be another, which could only be ConSpiracy. :/ (Or implosion. But implosion looked better earlier.)

SnakePlissken - 6 (implosion,
RaudhrGarm
,
Kise
, T-Bone, gorilla, MrZepher)
Reckamonic - 3 (
Nero Cain, SnakePlissken, Lucresia)
tclawren - 3 (Lowell
, Pine,
C-Worl)
gorilla - 2 (tclawren,

Eldritch Lord
)
Nobody Special - 2 (ConSpiracy,
Reckamonic
)
Kise - 1 (
Nobody Special
)

Not voting - 6 (Charlie, Nachomamma8, Chronopie, Shift,
Seraphim
,
Powerrox93
)

And by now, enough people have logged in and placed votes where staying off of a wagon is a choice, hence, Not Voting is a wagon as of now. 2 scum in there. Nacho's one. Chronopie/Shift look like the other.

When combined with the other (6) wagon, you get 12/12 needed, an effective lynch. What does this mean? 2-4 scum, of course! Nacho and Chrono/Shift I mentioned. The other wagon (the 6) has AT LEAST 1, if not 2 scum. T-Bone and Garm take care of this.
...Which is concerning, considering both Zepher and Gorilla (my two reads for the third wolf) are both on there. This MIGHT be handwavable by Garm being the SK, though.
Anyway, there's one scum on the two (3) wagons, which combined make a single (6) wagon. This is obviously Pine, of course. Since there are six scum alive at this point, and I just took care of 4-5 of 'em in the two six wagons, Pine manages to finish off the scum, so I'm inclined to believe there's actually three scum on Snake by this point, even though it seems like a lot.
Either that, or ConSpiracy is somehow a wolf. :/

Anyway, have to leave again. Celebrating a relative's birthday. Will resume from 34.

mastin2 · Post Post #1600 (isolation #41) » Tue May 03, 2011 7:50 pm

Also, for the record?

I'm still ignoring Pine and T-Bone until I finish what I'm doing.

"When you finish your VCA?"

Nope. When I finish what follows my VCA:
Cases.
Three of 'em.

And unlike SOME people, whose cases seem to be made up entirely of ISOs (*coughcougheveryonesuspiciousofchronopiecoughcough*), I use ISOs to FINISH my cases. That's right--
I do everything in context.

But oh. That's not all I do. I track down every single reference, every single connection, to the players I'm making a case against. And I will show you, quite conclusively, EXACTLY why they are scum.

That's four reads of the ENTIRE game. (Original readthrough [which I finished just before my vote] plus three cases.) When I finish with it, you'll be begging the mod for double-voting powers on T-Bone.

'Cause I am far from the worthless player these people are trying to make me out to be. To put it in simplest terms,

I'm just warming up.

(Never let it be said that I don't put enough time into a game.

I probably put more time into a single in-Game day than lots of people put into the entire GAME.

)

mastin2 · Post Post #1605 (isolation #42) » Wed May 04, 2011 6:13 am

Charlie wrote:Verbrosity is scummy.
Conciceness is pro town.

Hate to tell you guys, but Charlie's not completely wrong, here. Just a little mistaken.

Verbosity is anti-town. Unfortunately, I am one of the most verbose players on the site; everyone knows nobody Walls like I do. It's not something I'm exactly proud of; it's part of who I am. And even though I attempt to be concise (which I know is pro-town), I am really, REALLY bad at it.

It's not "scummy". It's not a scum-tell. It's anti-town, in that if you wall too much, it's not exactly helpful for the town. So, Charlie--while wrong in thinking it's scummy--was at least on the right thought pattern.

(Please don't ask me to explain the difference between Scummy, Scum-Tells, and Anti-Town. Just realize that the three are NOT one and the same. Everyone in every game does something scummy, some players are always anti-town, etc.)

To those doubting Charlie is scum:

Tell me, who makes sense as a buddy for Charlie?

If you think Charlie's scum, what team is Charlie on?
Who are his buddies?

Can you answer that?

Can you tell me who Charlie's one or two (depending on which team) buddies have been?

...No?

...Yeah, I thought not.

Simply put, Charlie's town because he makes no freakin' sense as being scum on EITHER team.

Bad-town, ironically anti-town, perhaps quite scummy town...

...But town, nonetheless.

Zepher wrote:If somebody is scummy, and a good portion of people agree with that, then how is it helpful to the town to try to push for a different wagon?

Because scummy != scum. C-worl has been scummy, but is pretty much confirmed town. Tclaw was wagoned to L-1 for being scummy, yet is pretty much confirmed town. Kise and Reckamonic have both had wagons on 'em 'cause they've both done scummy things, but they're still pretty much confirmed town.

Chronopie has been scummy. Yes. Is he scum? ...Possibly. But not probably. Sure, he's, like, my # 4 suspect or so. Which, indeed, means that he's more likely scum than most of the players alive.

...But he's not even close to likely enough for me to want him dead above all others. Above T-Bone, above Nacho, above Pine. All three of those I'd rather have dead before Chronopie.

It's helpful to push another wagon, because Chronopie is a weak wagon, full of weak suspicions, full of people semi-agreeing with people who made a half-case against Chronopie, a case they semi-knew wasn't too strong in the first place.

Charlie's even worse that way.

It's helpful to push another wagon, because this other wagon (T-Bone) is actually on scum.

Charlie's a bit of an idiot, but he's idiot-town.
Chrono's possible scum, but not extremely probable scum.

Neither should be the lynch, today.

tclawren - 3 (implosion, ConSpiracy, Reckamonic)
^Implosion has posted that he's preoccupied, but there's no excuses from these other two. Chronopie was correct when he mentioned in a game with two factions, having a two-person neighborhood means both neighbors are town. I've even seen it in previous Large Normal games, so can back this up. THIS WAGON NEEDS TO DIE, YESTERDAY!

Chronopie - 3 (gorilla, MrZepher, tclawren)
^I will not support a lynch on Chronopie. These votes pretty much confirm Chronopie can't be a Werewolf, since Gorilla AND Zepher (both Werewolf suspects) are on him. My guess is that they're legitimately scumhunting and honestly think that Chronopie is a member of the other scum faction. Which--while possible--is not likely enough for me to support it.

Charlie - 3 (T-Bone, Kise, Powerrox93)
^Seriously. There's no town motivation in this wagon. Charlie might be bad town, but he's still town. This is painful to anyone who reads the interactions Charlie has with other people. I remember my read on Charlie, now. I remember what I saw in him:
I saw town.

That was my strong read. It wasn't a strong scumread. No, it was one of my strongest town-reads. Not very helpful town, admittedly, but still town, nonetheless.

mastin2 - 2 (Charlie, Pine)
^Charlie's an idiot, and Pine's scum.

T-Bone - 2 (mastin2, C-Worl)
^Winning wagon, here.

MrZepher - 1 (Nachomamma8)
^My guess is that Nacho's legitimately scumhunting here and thinks that Zepher is a werewolf.

Not voting - 2 (singersigner, Chronopie)
^These people need a vote.

Now, if you don't mind, I've got work to do.

mastin2 · Post Post #1606 (isolation #43) » Wed May 04, 2011 6:15 am

Mastin wrote:To those doubting Charlie is scum:

*EditBWOP:
I switched thought processes mid-sentence from "To those doubting Charlie's town"
to "To those thinking Charlie's scum".

Either works, but I obviously did not mean "To those doubting Charlie is scum".

mastin2 · Post Post #1609 (isolation #44) » Wed May 04, 2011 6:26 am

2. ConSpiracy <-- ?
4. Charlie * kr0b <--Town.
5. mastin2 Lowell <--Town, of course.

7. Reckamonic RayFrost <--Town.
10. gorilla ** <-- ?
11. T-Bone <--Scum.
12. Nachomamma8 ** <--Scum.
13. Pine <--Scum.
15. Chronopie ** <-- ?
16. Kise * <--Town.
17. singersigner Shift <-- ?
18. implosion <-- ? (Looks town.)
19. C-Worl <--Town.
20. MrZepher ** <-- ?
23. tclawren <--Town.
24. Powerrox93 bristep123 <--Town.

From here-on out, my VCAs are going to have this reflected, with Charlie's name now underlined. For quick reference, the list of suspects:

2. ConSpiracy <-- ? (Other?)
10. gorilla ** <-- ? (Wolf.)
11. T-Bone <--Scum. (Other.)
12. Nachomamma8 ** <--Scum. (Other.)
13. Pine <--Scum. (Wolf.)
15. Chronopie ** <-- ? (Other)
17. singersigner Shift <-- ? (Other?)
20. MrZepher ** <-- ? (Wolf)

Our five scum are in here. If Zepher/Gorilla are scum, then 1: it's Wolf-scum, and 2: the other is confirmed-town.
If Chronopie is scum, 1: he is NOT a wolf. 2: Singer and ConSpiracy are both not members of the other faction (which therefore makes them very probably town).

Still, though, of these eight names, I have only three I would like to see lynched. I don't think I even need to tell you which three.

T-Bone
Nachomamma8
Pine

In that order.

mastin2 · Post Post #1611 (isolation #45) » Wed May 04, 2011 7:11 am

The Mod wrote:SnakePlissken - 7 (implosion,
RaudhrGarm
,
Kise
, T-Bone, gorilla, MrZepher,
Eldritch Lord)
tclawren - 3 (Lowell
, Pine,
C-Worl
)
Reckamonic - 2 (
Nero Cain, SnakePlissken
)
Nobody Special - 2 (ConSpiracy,
Reckamonic)
gorilla - 1 (tclawren
)
Kise - 1 (
Nobody Special
)

Not voting - 7 (
Charlie
, Nachomamma8, Chronopie, Shift,
Seraphim
,
Powerrox93
,
Lucresia
)

Whoah. Both main wagons have grown by one!

14/12 needed for a lynch means that there's 4-5 scum, two on each minimum. This is Nacho and Chrono/Shift on Not Voting, and T-Bone and Raud on Snake. Considering Raud's the SK, that makes me think we have 5 scum, and therefore, the fifth is Gorilla/Zepher.
This leaves 1-2 scum off. Pine's that one, in my opinion.

SnakePlissken - 8 (implosion,
RaudhrGarm
,
Kise
, T-Bone, gorilla, MrZepher,
Eldritch Lord
,
C-Worl
) L-4
Nobody Special - 3 (ConSpiracy,
Reckamonic
, Chronopie)
tclawren - 2 (
Lowell
, Pine)
Reckamonic - 2 (
Nero Cain, SnakePlissken)

gorilla - 1 (
tclawren
)
Kise - 1 (
Nobody Special)

Not voting - 6 (
Charlie
, Nachomamma8, Shift,
Seraphim
,
Powerrox93
,
Lucresia
)

Nacho's scum on the 6 wagon, with a possible second. (Shift.) Pine'sscum on the two (2) wagons. 2-3/6. This--of course--means that the remaining three are on Snake at this point: T-Bone, Garm, and Gorilla/Zepher.
If there's a sixth (as in, Shift isn't scum), then they'd be on the NS wagon: ConSpiracy or Chronopie.

SnakePlissken - 7 (RaudhrGarm, Kise, T-Bone, gorilla, MrZepher, Eldritch Lord, C-Worl) L-5
Nobody Special - 4 (ConSpiracy, Reckamonic, Chronopie, implosion)
tclawren - 2 (Lowell, Pine)
Reckamonic - 2 (Nero Cain, SnakePlissken)
gorilla - 1 (tclawren)
Kise - 1 (Nobody Special)

Not voting - 6 (Charlie, Nachomamma8, Shift, Seraphim, Powerrox93, Lucresia)

Only thing changed is that implosion has moved from Snake to NS. Other than that, this wagon is identical, so therefore, my analysis is the same.

SnakePlissken - 8 (
RaudhrGarm
,
Kise
, T-Bone, gorilla, MrZepher,
C-Worl
,
Lowell, Nero Cain
) L-4
Nobody Special - 5 (ConSpiracy,
Reckamonic
, Chronopie, implosion,
tclawren
)
tclawren - 1 (Pine)
Reckamonic - 1 (
SnakePlissken)
Kise - 1 (Nobody Special
)

Not voting - 7 (
Charlie
, Nachomamma8, Shift,
Seraphim
,
Powerrox93
,
Lucresia, Eldritch Lord
)

This is the peak of the NS counter-wagon. By this point, it looks like it has one scum on it, but there's no guarantee--the larger Not Voting wagon looks like it needs two, and if it has two, then that leaves no room to spare. (Since there's one scum in the three (1) voters--Pine--I have only five scum left. The number on Snake hasn't changed--three--which leaves me with two scum left. Nacho's one of them, leaving me with only one scum left to find...)
If the last scum is on the Not Voting wagon, it's Shift (now singersigner). Otherwise, it'd be Chrono/ConSpiracy. (Funny, how often I have to choose between those two...)

The next votecount is identical, and the one after that is almost-so, only...

SnakePlissken - 8 (
RaudhrGarm
,
Kise
, T-Bone, gorilla, MrZepher,
C-Worl
,
Lowell, Nero Cain
) L-4
Nobody Special - 4 (ConSpiracy, Chronopie, implosion,
tclawren)
C-Worl - 2 (Reckamonic
, Pine)
Reckamonic - 1 (
SnakePlissken)
Kise - 1 (Nobody Special)

Not voting - 7 (
Charlie
, Nachomamma8, singersigner,
Seraphim
,
Powerrox93
,
quadz08, Eldritch Lord)

Now the NS counterwagon has lost its steam.
Still one/two scum on Not Voting, zero/one scum on NS, three scum on Snake, and remaining one scum on the smaller wagons. (Funny, it seems like Pine's been on smaller wagons for nearly the entire game.)

SnakePlissken - 12 (
RaudhrGarm
,
Kise
, T-Bone, gorilla, MrZepher,
C-Worl
,
Lowell, Nero Cain
, ConSpiracy,
tclawren
, Nachomamma8,
Eldritch Lord
)
Nobody Special - 2 (Chronopie, implosion)
C-Worl - 2 (R
eckamonic
, Pine)
Reckamonic - 1 (
SnakePlissken)
Kise - 1 (Nobody Special)

Not voting - 5 (
Charlie
, singersigner,
Seraphim
,
Powerrox93
,
quadz08
)

And suddenly (whoah, four votes between VCs!), we have the lynch. There's now 0-1 scum Not Voting, due to the decreased number. There's still 1-2 scum on the smaller wagons, but the main wagon has 4 scum on it. This suggests ConSpiracy is town. Both Nacho and T-Bone are on the wagon, so not all three scum from that faction are going to be on there. It's POSSIBLE that ConSpiracy COULD be a Wolf, but extremely doubtful. I also find it hard to believe 5/6 scum in the game would risk being on the same wagon. So--while Snake was scum-driven--I've already found the four. (T-Bone, Nacho, Garm, Zepher/Gorilla.)

That's two scum off the wagon. Pine's one of them. {Singer, Chrono, implosion} contains one scum, and I don't think it's implosion.

This is a very telling votecount, because it creates those strong connections.

Posting. I'll start the next one from 2.2.

mastin2 · Post Post #1614 (isolation #46) » Wed May 04, 2011 8:36 am

Don't worry, Reckamonic. I won't keep it up forever. Just until I get the scum lynched.

(Switching your vote from confirmed town to T-Bone who's scum is a great way to start!)

mastin2 · Post Post #1645 (isolation #47) » Wed May 04, 2011 5:47 pm

tclawren wrote:Are you almost done Mastin? You got your point across ages ago.

Just getting warmed up.

Don't worry.

When I'm done, I'll say as much.

I'll finish the VCA. I'll compile all of my cases. (Mercifully, since my cases are ten times longer than my VCA, I DO put 'em in spoiler tags so reading 'em is optional.

) I'll give a summary of the cases, for easy reading. I'll compile my notes, give conclusions, and stick to it after that. And then I'll be done with my walling this game. Presuming I don't have to defend myself as being a legitimate scumhunter. (Which I apparently will have to do, since you people are beginning to buy the BS Pine and T-Bone are spewing which has no merit in actual fact. If it were just my scumreads, then I'd ignore it. But if people begin to believe what my scumreads are saying about me when it's utterly false, then I am forced to defend against their baseless accusations.)

Which, as I mentioned, means I'm effectively only warmed up on the game. But, oh, trust me: when I finish, it'll be spectacular. I'll have shown you exactly how I am not to be underestimated as a scumhunter, how I am not just some mediocre anti-town player: while annoying, I'm going to be someone who actually gets *beep* done.

Admit it:

Me coming in might have worsened the problem, but it didn't create it. I merely amplified the apathy you were already experiencing; the lethargic feeling in the air is most potent. (I know the feeling all too well, having suffered from it far too many times, myself.)

Not to me.

No, I actually care this game. I'm actually going to win, not let myself be steamrolled by the scum taking advantage of lazy-town.

Bear with me for a while. My method does take time. And effort. But the end result? Success.

Unvote, Vote: T-Bone

.
^Put that in all of your posts. 'Cause if you don't do it now, you're going to regret it later.

(...All that said, I've had a long day. I'll be getting time into the game later tonight, but it'll be another hour or so before then.)

mastin2 · Post Post #1650 (isolation #48) » Wed May 04, 2011 7:53 pm

Just did the liberty of checking how many votecounts I have left:

10 for day two, 12 for day three.

This'll take longer than I would prefer, of course, but it needs to be done. I need to finish this!

The Mod wrote:Kise - 2 (Pine,
RaudhrGarm
)
RaudhrGarm - 2 (
tclawren, Reckamonic
)
Pine - 1 (ConSpiracy)
tclawren - 1 (
Kise
)

1-2 scum voting at this point. This is evidence against ConSpiracy being scum. The reason as to why is quite obvious--since Pine's scum, and Garm's scum, there's no more scum who should be voting!

RaudhrGarm - 2 (
tclawren, Reckamonic)
tclawren - 2 (Kise
,
Lowell
)
Kise - 1 (Pine)
Pine - 1 (ConSpiracy)

Unchanged from before, this is 1-2 scum. Pine's one, so there's room for ConSpiracy to be scum, but he doesn't have to be.

The Mod wrote:tclawren - 3 (
Kise
,
Lowell, Eldritch Lord
)
RaudhrGarm - 2 (
tclawren, Reckamonic
)
ConSpiracy - 2 (
quadz08
,
Powerrox93
)
Kise - 1 (Pine)
Pine - 1 (ConSpiracy)
Reckamonic - 1 (
C-Worl
)

Should be 3-4 at this point. Yet alarmingly, the only people here it COULD be are Pine and ConSpiracy. :/

RaudhrGarm - 5 (
tclawren, Reckamonic, C-Worl
, ConSpiracy, Nachomamma8)
tclawren - 4 (
Kise
,
Lowell, Eldritch Lord
, singersigner)
ConSpiracy - 1 (
Powerrox93
)
Kise - 1 (Pine)
Pine - 1 (
RaudhrGarm
)

Not voting - 7 (
Charlie
, gorilla, T-Bone, Chronopie, implosion, MrZepher,
quadz08
)

Enough people are present by this stage that Not Voting has become its own wagon: a wagon which is 7/10, which of course means 1-3 scum. Alarmingly, a large number of my scumreads are in here. I know T-Bone's scum, and one of Zepher/Gorilla has to be the final Wolf, though, so we've met the minimum without exceeding the maximum.

Also, this votecount is evidence that IF ConSpiracy is scum, then he's a Wolf, since he's voting right next to Nacho, who's the scum on this wagon. Essentially, there's 1-2 scum there.
On tclaw, there's also 0-1 scum, due to the smaller nature of that wagon.
Combined, that's 2-6 of our scum. I'd personally think 2/2/0, 2/1/1, or 3/1/0 are the most likely combinations, since I know there's one scum not in any of the three--Garm--and have a strong suspicion there's another scum not on there, either. *coughcoughPinecoughcough*

RaudhrGarm - 7 (
tclawren, Reckamonic, C-Worl
, ConSpiracy, Nachomamma8, gorilla, T-Bone) L-3
tclawren - 5 (
Kise
,
Lowell, Eldritch Lord
, singersigner,
RaudhrGarm
)
ConSpiracy - 1 (Powerrox93)
Kise - 1 (Pine)
Powerrox93 - 1 (implosion)

Not voting - 4 (
Charlie
, Chronopie, MrZepher,
quadz08
)

Oh, look, situation's reversed! 0-1 scum in Not Voting, 1-2 scum on Tclaw, and 1-3 scum on Garm, with the remaining scum off! T-Bone and Nacho are both confirmed scum on Garm, taking care of 2. It's possible there's a third, but I'm not positive. The fact that Garm's on Tclaw takes care of 1 scum, there, too. We're up to half. Pine makes it four.
-I'm leaning towards it being ConSpiracy/Gorilla as scum. The reason why is simple: the wolves would want one on the wagon, I'd think, and they both fit the bill. That'd make it 5/6.
-This'd make either singer or Chrono the last member of the other faction we need to track down.

In other words, I'm closing in on the scum. One final analysis of all this will eventually determine the end result. (Oh, boy. I'm going to have LOADS of fun reading through my own iso...

)

RaudhrGarm - 8 (
tclawren, Reckamonic, C-Worl
, ConSpiracy, Nachomamma8, gorilla, T-Bone, Pine) L-2
tclawren - 5 (
Kise
,
Lowell, Eldritch Lord
, singersigner,
RaudhrGarm
)
ConSpiracy - 1 (
Powerrox93
)
Powerrox93 - 1 (implosion)

Not voting - 4 (
Charlie
, Chronopie, MrZepher,
quadz08
)

This, however, suggests otherwise. On Garm, you'd expect 2-4, now, sure, but if I'm right, that'd mean 4/5 scum risked their lives on a single wagon. This MIGHT be justified by the nature of the wagon--on a known SK which means they MUST be getting townpoints for being on the wagon! Right? (No.)--so I'm not ruling it out. T-Bone, Nacho, and Pine are all confirmed scum on Garm. It's possible to have another, even if not probable.
Still, that's 2-3 scum off the wagon I need to find.
There's one on Tclaw--Garm, obviously--but there could be two. We're down to 0-1 at this point. I don't think either of the (1) voters are scum (to the point where if I research things some more, I might be willing to start underlining implosion's name), but it's possible there's one scum in the Not Voting.

So, that means that scum off the wagon CAN be
{Singer, Chrono/Zepher}. Not both of Chrono/Zepher; only one. And do keep in mind, that one of 'em IS guaranteed scum, if not both. Why? Garm has 3-4 scum on it; that leaves 2-3 off, and Garm's one of those off (obviously), so therefore--unless the wolves risked BOTH their remaining members on a single wagon--that means there's ONLY three scum and therefore there has to be 2 remaining off. This'd suggest Zepher's the third wolf, and that Chrono's town, and that Singer's the last on the other faction.

So,
IF only one wolf is on the Garm wagon at this time:
-Chrono's town.
-So is ConSpiracy.
-As is Gorilla, surprisingly enough.
-Singer is the last member of the other faction.
-Zepher is the third wolf.

HOWEVER,
IF they BOTH are on the Garm wagon...
-Zepher's confirmed town.
-Only ONE of {singer/Chrono} can be scum; the other's confirmed town.

This might seem complex, but it's really not when you think about it. Essentially, I might've just nailed the entire scumteams:
{T-Bone, Gorilla, Singersigner} and {Pine, Jindori, MrZepher} if the former scenario is true.
(Sadly, if the latter scenario is the case, then we've essentially gained...absolutely nothing. :/)

Posting, since I don't want my proposed scumteams to be lost in the middle of a post. Will resume from 2 # 8.

mastin2 · Post Post #1653 (isolation #49) » Wed May 04, 2011 8:04 pm

In fact, it's a bit early, so I reserve the right to change it at a later date, but...

CALLING IT: The Scum Teams Are
Jindori, Pine, And MrZepher as Werewolves;
T-Bone, Nachomamma8, and Singersigner as the other faction

.

This theory is beginning to make a lot more sense as I think about it more. While my findings might change when I finish my research, I think I'm on to something with this. (And if I'm right, Gorilla and Chrono get my official "sorry-I-suspected-you" apology.

)

mastin2 · Post Post #1655 (isolation #50) » Wed May 04, 2011 8:08 pm

C-worl wrote:He stated that he did not cause the problem but he has also admitted to adding to the problem with no intent to stop.

...But the problem will stop when the walls magically vanish!

(Yes, this is me answering your request with a "Sure, why not?" I've got no reason to NOT spoiler them, 'cept when I find something super-important like my potentially-entire-scumteam VCA above.)

Will start spoiling you all (:P) in my next VCA.

mastin2 · Post Post #1660 (isolation #51) » Wed May 04, 2011 8:40 pm

I'd still recommend anyone who still cares about this game even remotely to keep reading 'em, anyway, but spoilered for those people too lazy to look.

Spoiler: VCA, Starting From Votecount 8 of Day Two

...So, this is the theory as it stands:

If Both Wolves-Scum Were On The Garm Wagon (in the mentioned Votecount): {Jindori, Pine, Gorilla} looks like our scumteam (again), and {T-Bone, Nacho, Chronopie} looks like the other. (Again.)
If Only Pine-Wolf-Scum Was On The Garm Wagon (in said Votecount):
{Jindori, Pine, Zepher} is the wolf-team as I mentioned, and {T-Bone, Nacho, Singer} is the other scumteam.

In other words, this VCA is getting pretty accurate. In fact, I think I have the information I need to essentially win the game, right now. Through sheer process of VCA eliminating certain pairings, I have this game nialed down.

Spoiler: resuming the VCA

So, Sorry, Chronopie. While the team I just called would be incredibly awesome, the VCA has other ideas. At least it's given me a rather conclusive replacement team! (...Which you're unfortunately on.)

Spoiler: Barely worthy of tags

Better?

mastin2 · Post Post #1661 (isolation #52) » Wed May 04, 2011 8:47 pm

RaudhrGarm - 8 (

tclawren, Reckamonic, C-Worl

, ConSpiracy, Nachomamma8, gorilla, T-Bone, Pine) L-2
^This is the key wagon my duelling theories rely on. If both wolves were on, Pine's one and {ConSpiracy, Gorilla} is the other. Gorilla-scum is backed up by the VCA later on. Under this same theory, the remaining scum on the final team would therefore have to be one of {singer, Chrono}, and the VCA backs up it not being Singer, due to Nacho voting WITH Singer.

The rival theory--while more awesome--is contradicted by Nacho's voting with Singer. While I think that's the only evidence AGAINST the theory, it's still enough to make it the less likely of the two.

...If this makes sense at all.

Essentially, I've found a few key VCs which when I did my A have effectively told me who the scum are this game.

mastin2 · Post Post #1663 (isolation #53) » Wed May 04, 2011 8:51 pm

Conclusion:

So, I'm not as opposed to a Chrono lynch as I was before, since it gives us the entire scumteam either way.

I still would prefer a lynch of my confirmed scum rather than Chrono, who's only scum-in-one-scenario.

Anyway, will resume from the day three VSs to A.

mastin2 · Post Post #1684 (isolation #54) » Thu May 05, 2011 6:40 am

MrZepher wrote:Mastin are you even reading the thread? Or are you ONLY looking at the vote counts, because you're straight up not putting some things together.

I read the thread, and realized that you were gone at the time.
But just 'cause you were gone (if you're a wolf) doesn't mean your buddies wouldn't be. And they'd see you, in the Not Voting area, and know to avoid being there themselves.

...If that makes sense.

Anyway, since we're getting closer:

Mod: I'll be V/LA from Friday until Monday

, going out-of-country. (Into Canada. The actual event's from Friday night 'til Saturday-extremely-late-at-night-to-the-point-of-being-technically-Sunday.

Which means I'll be sleeping 'til something like ten in the morning, and then have to drive back home, getting there Sunday afternoon--might be recovered enough to resume playing, then, but far more likely is that I'll be wiped out 'til Monday.)

Noted.

mastin2 · Post Post #1685 (isolation #55) » Thu May 05, 2011 6:42 am

mastin2 wrote:doesn't mean your buddies wouldn't be

*EditBWOP: I'm saying that (if Zepher's scum) Zepher's buddies WOULD still be around, not that they'd be gone as well.

Just to make sure that's clear. (Blasted double-negatives.

)

mastin2 · Post Post #1690 (isolation #56) » Thu May 05, 2011 9:35 am

Singer, trust me: the person contributing the least is T-Bone.

Totally.

mastin2 · Post Post #1706 (isolation #57) » Thu May 05, 2011 3:48 pm

For the record?

Chrono's at L-3. I count six votes on 'em, with nine needed to lynch.

If you see people "accidentally" hammer, or go, "oh, I didn't know there were

that

many votes!", lynch 'em.

mastin2 · Post Post #1708 (isolation #58) » Thu May 05, 2011 3:54 pm

...Because he's only fourth on my scumlist?
Because he's actually providing useful content, rather than T-Bone, Nacho, and Pine who are all giving me absolutely nothing new to work with?
Because it's possible he's not scum and that Singer is?
Because I haven't finished my VCA?
Because I haven't made my cases on my top three?
Take your pick.

mastin2 · Post Post #1710 (isolation #59) » Thu May 05, 2011 4:11 pm

Do remember, I proposed not one, but TWO possible pairings. Pine's conveniently quoting the earlier one while leaving out the later one.

mastin2 · Post Post #1712 (isolation #60) » Thu May 05, 2011 4:16 pm

Oh. And both T-Bone and Nacho are on Chrono, too. That certainly doesn't help my motivation, either. 'Less they both decided to simultaneously bus their partner (who was actually beginning to contribute!), it extremely weakens the read.

mastin2 · Post Post #1715 (isolation #61) » Thu May 05, 2011 4:33 pm

...'Cause it's almost done already, and if I procrastinate on it, it won't get done?

I honestly don't see why the VCA wouldn't come first at the time I started. And once I started the VCA, I locked in and concluded I'd finish it, too.

mastin2 · Post Post #1716 (isolation #62) » Thu May 05, 2011 5:02 pm

Spoiler: Beginning of Day Three Analysis

That's the half-way mark; seven of fourteen votecounts so far. Posting.

mastin2 · Post Post #1719 (isolation #63) » Thu May 05, 2011 5:08 pm

I already read the game. That's how I got most of my reads. It's just that reading the thread can only take me so far. VCAs is the next step, 'cause they help make connections invisible to me when I do my reads for making cases.

Re-reading the thread before VCAs would mean I'd miss small details the VCA picks up. Re-reading the thread AFTER the VCA allows for me to properly refine the theories the VCA creates, essentially zeroing in on the truth far more efficiently than if the VCAs came last.

mastin2 · Post Post #1722 (isolation #64) » Thu May 05, 2011 5:43 pm

Spoiler: Finishing The VCA...for now

In other words, it's looking more and more like my original teams of Chrono, T-Bone, Nacho versus Pine and Gorilla still holds.

Surprising, but I'm just calling it the way I see it.

Spoiler: Resuming, now that I got that important bit out of spoilers...

I need to work on those cases. Maybe they'll answer my lingering doubts.

mastin2 · Post Post #1723 (isolation #65) » Thu May 05, 2011 5:45 pm

Mastin in spoilers wrote:What's concerning is how not only should there be only 2 scum maximum on Chrono, but also that both T-Bone AND Nacho voted Chrono. Which throws into doubt that Chrono's their buddy. Would they seriously both bus Chrono? Right next to each other, too!

For those of you too lazy to read the spoilers, this should be unspoiled.

mastin2 · Post Post #1724 (isolation #66) » Thu May 05, 2011 5:49 pm

Deadline is May 17th, 9:00 PM EDT.
^Plenty of time for me to finish. I'd estimate that--at absolute WORST--a case on T-Bone will take me 24 hours or so to finish.
Working on it eight hours a day, that's three days to finish a T-Bone case.

Not too bad. Now, I'll be back on the 11th. Three days later is the 14th. That's still three days to get a lynch on T-Bone.

Think that's enough time?

mastin2 · Post Post #1726 (isolation #67) » Thu May 05, 2011 5:57 pm

'Course not. My MD work is far from perfect, but you have to admit, all my work DOES have extreme value if you know how to use it.

Like that Guide To Playing Well?

Where I suggested not to get into endless fights with your scumreads?

Following it has allowed me to keep Pine and T-Bone from burying my useful posts in a sea of bickering. I almost fell into their trap, if you recall.

mastin2 · Post Post #1727 (isolation #68) » Thu May 05, 2011 6:22 pm

Editing BWOP wrote:Now, I'll be back on the
11
9th. Three days later is the
14
12th. That's still
three
five days to get a lynch on T-Bone.

Think that's enough time?
That's DEFINITELY enough time to lynch 'im.

mastin2 · Post Post #1736 (isolation #69) » Fri May 06, 2011 7:55 am

Oh, look, I'm V/LA, and suddenly, by magic, you people get stuff done!

Yeah, right.

I'll be gone, come back, and find the state of the game has not progressed any at all. Or--if anything--has degraded.

Like I said. The apathy and lethargy was in this game WELL before I came in. I certainly made it more noticeable, but I did not cause it. You're going to slack off, and get nothing done.

T-Bone, I assure you, my case will be in a single post. But I'm merely estimating the amount of time it'll take to do a case. It took me 7 hours to do a single case in 20 pages. Times that by three, and you get 24 hours, which working 8 a day, will get me done in three days. Oh, and everything I quote? Will be completely in-context. Heck, I'll even link to posts to prove it.

Simply put, I'm not going to let the town slack off, which is exactly what you want. Not only because they don't suspect you in their laziness, but because you have influence over certain members with your BS.

And, oh, believe me. I'll be able to conclusively prove it on my return.

mastin2 · Post Post #1740 (isolation #70) » Fri May 06, 2011 8:27 am

Holier-than-thou attitudes imply that I'm wrong.

Seriously. You guys are lynching a lurker.

LURKER.

Of which, there are several.

Singer.
Charlie. (Who WAS wagoned [WTF?], but fortunately you people came to your senses on that.)
Chronopie, your current top pick, apparently.
Lowell, who got replaced by me due to inactivity.
Nacho, too.
As of recently, implosion.
I could argue Powerrox is a lurker, too, due to having the same number of posts as implosion. (I don't really think so, but still.)

Heck, that's just the people who come to mind off the top of my head.
Cases could be made for pretty much half the players in this game being lurkers.

They're not all scum.

Heck, you need only look as far as Snake: a lurkerlynch, and look where that got you?

A town flip.

Anyway, have to leave. For real, now.

mastin2 · Post Post #1752 (isolation #71) » Fri May 06, 2011 1:00 pm

I'd like to offer an apology for my attitude in my last post.

Needless to say,
-That was made right before I left. In other words, when tensions are at their absolute highest. Anyone who's been on a long trip knows how stressful it is.
-Also, I didn't have time to revise it to be more polite. I realized, like, five minutes later, "I sounded like a rude jerk", but it was too late by then.

Anyway, I'm in Canada right now, and have a short amount of free time. I'll see what can be done in that time.

mastin2 · Post Post #1772 (isolation #72) » Fri May 06, 2011 7:32 pm

Careful!
Depending on whether Demon counts an accidental self-vote caused by broken tags or not, Chrono may or may not be at L-1.

mastin2 · Post Post #1804 (isolation #73) » Sun May 08, 2011 1:30 pm

Oh, look. I go away, come back to see a couple pages of extra content, and...

...Find that it contains pretty much nothing I wasn't expected.

The most productive thing done there was that people realized Chronopie might not be the best lynch. Though,

Apparently wrote:Chronopie - 4 (gorilla, tclawren, T-Bone, Nachomamma8)
tclawren - 2 (implosion, Reckamonic)
T-Bone - 2 (mastin2, Chronopie)
Pine - 2 (ConSpiracy, C-Worl)
Charlie - 1 (Powerrox93)
mastin2 - 1 (Pine)
ConSpiracy - 1 (Kise)
Powerrox93 - 1 (singersigner)

Not voting - 2 (Charlie, MrZepher)

Looks like without me, you still haven't gotten a better alternative. Loads of (2) wagons, and a few (1) wagons.

T-Bone wasn't lying about one thing:
We need to combine a lot of those wagons and narrow things down.

He just narrowed it down to two horrible wagons, Charlie/Chrono.

I propose instead we focus on your choice between T-Bone and Pine.

You can't seriously think

both

of them are town, can you?

(Still V/LA, right now, though I'm home.)

mastin2 · Post Post #1805 (isolation #74) » Sun May 08, 2011 1:32 pm

^I'm also quite incoherent at the moment, it seems. Maybe I SHOULD wait 'til the V/LA's over (tomorrow) to start playing.

mastin2 · Post Post #1819 (isolation #75) » Sun May 08, 2011 5:24 pm

Even if ConSpiracy is scum, that's not the lynch for today.

Reason's simple.

Possible scum versus guaranteed scum.

Same as Chronopie.
Same as Zepher.
Same as Gorilla.
Same as singer.

They're all possible scum. Two of them mafia, two of them wolves, and one of them (ConSpiracy) who I've thought was possible as either at different points, if memory serves. (Which probably means he's neither.

)

But none of them are strong enough scum-reads for me to push a lynch.

Now, T-Bone and Pine, on the other hand...

Not voting - 2 (Charlie, MrZepher)
^Lurker who has promised to catch up (but is still town), person who I forget their excuse for Not Voting.
Both should take a stance.

Powerrox93 - 1 (singersigner)
^Failwagon is fail. Powerrox is town.

Charlie - 1 (Powerrox93)
^Even MORE of a failwagon.

tclawren - 2 (implosion, Reckamonic)
^ULTIMATE FAILWAGON.

The rest are already explained. But still, you get the idea. We have a lot of votes not where they need to be.

mastin2 · Post Post #1829 (isolation #76) » Sun May 08, 2011 6:20 pm

*sigh*

Claiming really wasn't necessary, Kise. Nobody was going to lynch you.

mastin2 · Post Post #1833 (isolation #77) » Sun May 08, 2011 6:38 pm

C-Worl wrote:Mastin, I would sheep to you but you were so pathetically wrong in the game I played with you that I really don't want to anymore.

And I learned my lesson. I learned to not show that kind of confidence unless I'm actually RIGHT.

It was fun at first but now you bore me.

Awww, so harsh! You don't like my sense of humor?

So make the case against T-Bone or Pine and argue it or just shut the fuck up.

Limited. Access. I was on it. I said I was on it 'til tomorrow, too. That didn't leave me time to make the case, so all I could do is keep talking. But, eh, screw incoherent rambling coming from a tired, exhausted, spent mind which could really need the sleep. Since you people aren't lynching T-Bone, yet, it looks like I have to start immediately.

Not a happy scumhunter, that you people Can't take the word Of someone who is insistent that they can PROVE someone's scum, and that I actually have to go through the work of explaining why. It is a lot more work than I prefer doing. But I'm sick and tired of you people degrading me, of you saying that I need to give the evidence, that I'm making *beep* up, etc. So I'm starting my a day early. yay.

But trust me:

When all is said and done, one of us is going to feel silly.
And it aint gonna be me.
Never more will I suck. All I've done has been for our benefit. 'Course, you can't take my word for it, so I HAVE to do work. One day, people'll learn to listen to my mad ramblings and realize I Speak the truth. "Can't you just get on with it?!? Uhg, Mastin!"
True, I'm more wordy than most, But it's not going to do you any good to policy vote me when I've simply been V/LA and therefore haven't been able to start what I had intended to. Of course, I'm predicting another vote or two on me, anyway, 'cause people will NEVER apparently realize that I do things for a reason. Expect to see results in...Three days? Obviously, it's going to take a while. Okay,

*Begins* (A day earlier than I said I would! That means we'll have nearly a week to lynch T-Bone after I finish!

)

Don't be surprised if I get prodded for not posting in here--that'll be me working on the case, and ignoring you all to get the game going in the right direction.

/End Incoherent ranting.

mastin2 · Post Post #1835 (isolation #78) » Sun May 08, 2011 6:54 pm

Kise wrote:If we get T-Bone today, can I have a lynch pick next please?

I would prefer a Nacho lynch first, and then a Pine lynch after that. But if you sheeped my T-Bone vote, I'd return the favor* on a later day.

*And I am a man of my word.

mastin2 · Post Post #1866 (isolation #79) » Mon May 09, 2011 1:46 pm

ConSpiracy wrote:Mastin will be online soon enough and will vote for Pine as well.

Tempting, but no.

1: I want to finish my T-Bone case, and if I vote Pine, chances are, he'll be lynched before I finish. I've already seen people hammer and end days before I would prefer; I would rather not contribute to this shortening of time.
2: Pine's my # 3 suspect, after T-Bone and Nacho. Always has been, always will. I would much prefer to lynch T-Bone over Pine.
3: Pine's probably Wolf-scum. Which means, his faction is already down one, and therefore, will be far more receptive to influence, so to speak. In other words, with Pine alive, I can use him and his buddy (Zepher/Gorilla/ConSpiracy) to push a T-Bone lynch far easier than if I lynch them. Essentially, "I'll spare you for now if you help me lynch opposite scum: it's mutually beneficial!"

Now if you don't mind, I'd like to get back to working on said case. It's 5:45 pm right now, and I'll probably be working on it 'til 2 am. (Not solidly, unfortunately--I do need to eat supper, after all.

But mostly. A good solid 80% of that time will be spent on the case today.)

mastin2 · Post Post #1868 (isolation #80) » Mon May 09, 2011 1:52 pm

singersigner wrote:
ConSpiracy wrote:singer, instead of softclaiming a possibility of joining the Pine wagon, just vote him. That is less scummy.

My vote is where I want it. Nacho's a good choice, too.

Let me put it this way, Singer:

You've got no support for a Powerrox lynch, and more than likely, will never gain support of it. More than that, you've also got strong opposition to said lynch. (Me. Don't make me prove to you Powerrox is town; it's enough of a timesink already to prove T-Bone's scum! >_<)

Nacho, who you've said right here you're willing to lynch, on the other hand, will gain support. And more than that, probably won't have much opposition to it, either.
There's also T-Bone, for that matter...

(T-Bone and Nacho are so connected, it's not even funny. A desire to lynch one of them is essentially a desire to lynch the other as well. Will be explained in my T-Bone case.)

mastin2 · Post Post #1870 (isolation #81) » Mon May 09, 2011 1:57 pm

uh, Pine?

Two scumteams.

Scum don't know ANYONE is town.

The reasons I give are reasons enough. You saw me ask for people not to vote in [REDACTED] because I wanted to work on the game. Same applies here. I want to finish my case on T-Bone. Simple as that.

mastin2 · Post Post #1874 (isolation #82) » Mon May 09, 2011 2:34 pm

Zepher wrote:Odds are he'll still be alive considering the suspicion on him / He may be scum.

You're assuming, of course, they don't nightkill me for fear that when I finish, I actually DO prove they are scum.

...Which I will, of course.

mastin2 · Post Post #1887 (isolation #83) » Mon May 09, 2011 4:22 pm

^Note how Nacho comes in when suspicion on him begins to rise.

mastin2 · Post Post #1891 (isolation #84) » Mon May 09, 2011 5:18 pm

Nachomamma8 wrote:Reminds you of your old town play, doesn't it?

Yes. MY

old

town play.

Not

your

current

town play.

So many things wrong with that statement.

mastin2 · Post Post #1892 (isolation #85) » Mon May 09, 2011 5:24 pm

^Bit incoherent, right now.

mastin2 · Post Post #1909 (isolation #86) » Tue May 10, 2011 6:38 am

4. How the hell does mastin want to last the day longer when Pine is on L-4!

L-2, now.
My vote would've made Pine currently at L-1.

Far too close to a lynch.

I'm still working on that T-Bone case, and I don't want anyone to freakin' hammer when we've still got a week 'til deadline!

mastin2 · Post Post #1911 (isolation #87) » Tue May 10, 2011 7:58 am

If I had placed my vote on Pine at any of the times it was requested of me, then it'd be L-1 right now or maybe even a lynch, rather than L-2.

Using the L-2 from now is perfectly accurate, because I have a BRAIN which can think ahead and realizes that just because I could join the wagon when it's small doesn't mean it'll REMAIN small. I knew that would be coming, and my vote would make it even easier to come that much faster. Since I'm currently opposed to the Pine lynch (I want T-Bone dead today, not Pine), if I joined in on the Pine lynch, people'd go, "Oh, no opposition to the Pine lynch; might as well join in!" Essentially. In a normal town?
When people see a large wagon, they think, "Hmm...I was suspicious of this player, but this looks like it's a questionable wagon...maybe I should reevaluate my [planned] vote..."

In this game?

"Oh, look, that guy has more votes than anyone else! I think I'll vote him!"

mastin2 · Post Post #1914 (isolation #88) » Tue May 10, 2011 8:14 am

Vote T-Bone. It's what all the cool kids are doing these days.

(Still workin' on the case.)

mastin2 · Post Post #1915 (isolation #89) » Tue May 10, 2011 8:47 am

Pine, your faction's already down a member. Don't throw away your life and let yourself be lynched. Nacho's currently not on your wagon, but I caught sight of him online. He's likely waiting to hammer.

And believe me, he will. You're at L-2. One more townie (or your buddy) on you, and you're dead.

While an interesting gambit by you, Pine, it's miserably failed. Get off of yourself and back onto T-Bone.

mastin2 · Post Post #1918 (isolation #90) » Tue May 10, 2011 9:47 am

For the record?
Anyone hammering is scum.
I don't care if I've called you confirmed town before right now; if you hammer, you're scum.

mastin2 · Tue May 10, 2011 10:00 am

Dude, you're wolf-scum.

I aint interested in lynchin' wolf-scum.

See, we have sixteen alive. Lynch today anyone other than T-Bone, Nacho, or their partner, and with two kills tonight, then tomorrow, we'll have thirteen alive, with three of 'em being the other scum. Lynch tomorrow anyone other than those three, and we get two kills, leaving ten alive, three of 'em being the other scum. And on that day, if we lynch incorrectly, there's 3/9 being that scum, and with two kills, that's 3/7.

...Okay. So that's assuming no crosskills (which I don't think we'll have), and that's more time than I thought it was, but still. Wolf scum aint that much of a threat, considering those numbers above?

Add in an extra day before they're a threat, since with them, it aint lylo 'til it's 2/5 alive being wolves.

Simply put, wolf-lynch won't be as beneficial as lynchin' other faction.

mastin2 · Tue May 10, 2011 10:01 am

Also, Nacho's still scum.

I, too, have to depart, but I've been workin' on the T-Bone case. I'll be finished with it well before deadline.

mastin2 · Tue May 10, 2011 10:07 am

'Cause they're effectively already Mason-Vigs right now?

Seriously, they're way behind the other scumteam. They need the other scumteam to have only two members, or else, they're screwed. That means they need to lynch/kill the other faction.

I already said that two votes would be better than one. If we lynch one of the wolves, we've only got one left, which means, only one wolf vote during the day, and only one wolf giving input during the night for who to kill.

Essentially, they're more used to us alive than dead.

And I think Pine's a wolf, so therefore is not a lynch today.

You and T-Bone, however, are.

mastin2 · Post Post #1935 (isolation #94) » Tue May 10, 2011 1:05 pm

I'm facepalming at ConSpiracy.

T-Bone and Nacho are scum together, and are NOT wolves.
Pine's also scum, but IS a wolf.

And since Pine's a wolf, we essentially force him and his buddy to kill mafia or we lynch him.

In other words, I want to blackmail Pine and his wolf buddy into being Mason-Vigs. Rather than lynch Pine, and let it go down to a single wolf.

Have to leave, again. Willing to explain later, but would rather focus on finishing the T-Bone case.

mastin2 · Post Post #1945 (isolation #95) » Tue May 10, 2011 3:49 pm

C-Worl wrote:Oh Mastin, here's why your logic sucks.
D1 Jindori wolf gets modkilled. N1 town Jail Keeper gets eaten. N2 Town Neighbor gets eaten. Wolves are not getting scum. They're eating townies. If you think Pine is a wolf you need to vote for him. Failure to comply will get me on you either today or tomorrow.

Ah, but do consider, if Pine's scum, he's a wolf.

And if he's a wolf, the threat of lynching him is JUST as effective as an actual lynch.

If there's only one wolf, they're forced to cross-kill, as mentioned, in order to keep living.
If there's the THREAT of only one wolf--as in, we lynch Pine and leave his buddy lonely--then the wolves are still forced to act AS IF they only had one member, since we already know who one of them is. That's the genius in it. Pine's attitude has effectively outed himself as Wolf-scum, to the point where we all know he is wolf-scum. He knows that if he doesn't obey the town's desires, he's dead. And what does the town want?
For him to cross-kill, of course.

See the logic now?

Lynching Pine's a waste of a lynch, because they're already essentially TWO members down. We can kill Pine at any time--and he knows that. He has to submit to our will, or he's dead meat.

In other words, the wolves killing someone they think is town will be going against their win condition, since Pine'll get auto-lynched and they'll be left with only one member.
If they kill someone who is scum, however, guess what?

They get to keep two members, at least, temporarily.

We KNOW Pine's wolf-scum. He knows we know. He knows that if we want him dead, he's dead. So all he has left is to try and appease us.

It makes perfect sense if you think about it. Like I said. The wolves have essentially given us Pine. He's like an outed Mason who has a vig ability during the night--target painted right on his back. He can die at any time, and the wolves will be at a disadvantage due to that. So, he needs the town's help, and to get the town's help, he needs to help the town.

Make sense?

mastin2 · Post Post #1952 (isolation #96) » Tue May 10, 2011 5:21 pm

Oh, no.
Oh, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
No.
No!
NO!

Pine's at L-1, and I believe Nacho's off the wagon.
You know what that means?
We're about to yield.

To Hammertime.

As soon as he's online, if he isn't already. Guarantee it.

mastin2 · Post Post #1956 (isolation #97) » Tue May 10, 2011 5:24 pm

Pine - 8 (ConSpiracy, Kise, T-Bone, Chronopie, C-Worl, MrZepher, Pine, Powerrox93,

Nachomamma8

) L-.5
^And Pine's dead. Shame, too. I was hoping to actually use the wolves scum, and have Pine's insight. While Pine's scum, he's still got an opinion which should be respected about his rival scumteam. And I wanted to employ that, to have him hunt the other team for us.

But nooooooooo...

You guys HAVE to lynch scum right here and now.

This is Garm all over again.

mastin2 · Post Post #1958 (isolation #98) » Tue May 10, 2011 5:26 pm

Had you guys considered--
What if the other scumteam kills the remaining wolf?
With Pine lynched, that'd eliminate the other scumteam.

"Yay!" You shout.

No, you're not realizing that would mean we could lose our vig, thanks to not having a spare, a backup--Pine, wolf-scum.

mastin2 · Post Post #1959 (isolation #99) » Tue May 10, 2011 5:26 pm

*Eliminate the wolfteam.

mastin2 · Tue May 10, 2011 5:28 pm

In other words?

Lynching Pine was a wagon driven by the other scumteam, realizing that I was right and that if Pine lived, they were screwed.

Nobody listens to me, though.

You're gonna regret lynching Pine, and not T-Bone. We needed Pine.

mastin2 · Tue May 10, 2011 5:29 pm

And also, I needed the extra time to finish my freakin' case. Yes, I'm still working on it. And, yes, I have one. IT JUST IS GOING TO TAKE A FREAKIN' LONG TIME TO FINISH. And that's time I'd prefer to have today. Not to mention, I'd prefer to be alive when I finish it, a guarantee I no longer have, thanks to you!

mastin2 · Tue May 10, 2011 5:30 pm

C-Worl wrote:Eliminating a source of kills that has claimed two town prs is a good thing. Mastin gets lynched tomorrow.

And eliminating the SK was such a smart idea, too.

I've made my stance on this quite clear.

mastin2 · Tue May 10, 2011 5:31 pm

Essentially, lynching Pine was NOT what was supposed to happen today. You do realize just how screwed we are, now? You're letting the other scumteam--T-Bone, Nacho, and one other--STEAMROLL you.

mastin2 · Tue May 10, 2011 5:32 pm

C-Worl wrote:Eliminating the SK was an extremely smart idea.

Read my posts on the matter. I made it clear that had I been playing, I would've strongly objected to that course of action.

Just like I am now.

It was a mistake then; it's a mistake now.

mastin2 · Tue May 10, 2011 5:33 pm

Nachomamma8 wrote:ITT Mastin's just freaking out because he knows he's fucked
tonight, and the town is
tomorrow.

Fix'd.

mastin2 · Tue May 10, 2011 5:35 pm

You really should've gotten my hints, by the way.

IF I live 'til tomorrow (WHICH I PROBABLY WON'T, YOU *BEEP*ING MAFIA!), I can explain everything, and it'll all be made clear.

mastin2 · Tue May 10, 2011 5:37 pm

For the record, fair chance Pine was being bussed, and that therefore, there are two wolves and two from the other faction on him.

mastin2 · Tue May 10, 2011 5:38 pm

C-Worl wrote:Killing a source of kills that's been targetting townies is ALWAYS a good thing. Simply bc if we direct them and we're wrong then we end up continuing to barrel toward LyLo. If we eliminate a known source of kills that we know is done by a non town aligned player then we can slow down how quickly the game is moving and take more time finding the other faction.

This is NO different than a mislynch. In fact, it's BETTER than a mislynch, since directed kills ARE A FREAKIN' SECOND LYNCH.

I made this quite explicit when I posted about the Garm lynch.

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 6:29 am

Vote: T-Bone

. Regrettably, I have been ill for a few days. (Tuesday Night forced me to go to sleep due to a sore throat, and I've been sick since then.) Combined with my other activities, this means I did quite slack off, so didn't finish my T-Bone case. Instead, I DID do a background check on Nacho last night and confirmed he was scum, but, uh, looks like the wolves took care of that for us.

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 6:45 am

Dude. I wanted Nacho lynched. I wouldn't kill him if I were a wolf.

You have my word that I'm not a wolf, for what it's worth.

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 6:50 am

^And I realize you have no reason to pay attention to me elsewhere, but it's quite obvious to anyone who's interested that I realized that mistake after the lynch went through and changed my viewpoint on things such as VCA after that.

Which is one of the reasons I WAS going to go after Nacho today.

My word is law. Follow it!

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 6:54 am

^Still have you (EditBWOP: This was meant for Gorilla, but applies to Zepher as well

) as quite the wolf suspect, but hey, you're scumhunting the other faction at the very LEAST.

Powerrox isn't scum, though Chrono might be. I'll need to review the wagons for a moment to make sure.

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 7:03 am

Pine - 9 (ConSpiracy,

Kise

, T-Bone, Chronopie,

C-Worl

, MrZepher,

Pine

,

Powerrox93

,

Nachomamma8

)
tclawren - 2 (implosion,

Reckamonic

)
Chronopie - 2 (gorilla,

tclawren)
Reckamonic - 1 (Charlier)

T-Bone - 1 (

mastin2

)
Nachomamma8 - 1 (singersigner)

Lynchwagon should have more than one scum. T-Bone makes it obviously two, but I think this wagon needs one wolf in it. Not two, though--just one. That's Zepher or ConSpiracy. (But not both.)
This also is evidence against Chrono being scum, 'cause unless all three mafia were on the lynchwagon...

This--of course--means one wolf and one mafia off the lynchwagon. I'm inclined to believe the mafia was Singer bussing Nacho. The wolf is probably Gorilla.

So, from the end-of-day VCA,
Nacho (obv), T-Bone, and Singer are the mafia.
{ConSpiracy, Zepher} and Gorilla are the wolves.

I'll need to double-check with my massive VCA to see how this stacks up. And look at my reads compared to this. See if it makes any dang sense. The mafia does. I know that. The wolves, eh, not so sure. It made so much sense to be Pine. (Remind me to NEVER try and read Pine again. I've tried it something like five times and got an inaccurate read pretty much every single time.

) The fact that he isn't messes with all the analysis I had been doing in the past, completely changes its meaning, effectively meaning I have to do it all over from scratch. >_<

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 7:12 am

In spoilers, preferably. It's just that right now, things don't make sense.

Pine was supposed to be scum.

Pine needed to be scum.

Pine HAD to be scum.

...And yet, Pine was town.

I've got the mafia team pinned down pretty well, it seems. But the wolves are eluding me.

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 7:15 am

T-Bone's at L-4. (Gorilla, myself, Zepher.)
I'm at L-6.
Reckamonic's at L-6.

That's five of thirteen voting.

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 7:17 am

Zepher wrote:Kise died. Reck is cleared. Discuss.

Was there really any doubt about this? (Oh, right, vote on Reckamonic.) There really shouldn't be.

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 7:20 am

Zepher wrote:Was Pine right because actually made sense, or was Pine scum so your analysis could be right?

At this point?

I honestly don't know. The line between them is theoretically great, but over time, it kinda gets blurred. It probably started as the former--lots of evidence against Pine--but degraded into the latter--ignoring the evidence in favor of Pine--after a while. But I don't know, right now. That's the purpose for me redoing my reads. Figure out where I went wrong.

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 1:42 pm

It would be inadvisable to declare whether T-Bone's results are accurate or not from me. Also, watch the votes. T-Bone was at L-4, and at least two extra votes were placed on him. I think some that were on him got off, but still.

Needless to say, even if his claim is accurate, he's far from confirmed town. Mafia JOAT'd make sense, watching fellow buddy scum. And I believe he honestly has suspicions of Implosion and Gorilla. Don't think he'd bus in this particular situation.

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 7:11 pm

^Alright, Gorilla's officially a wolf. Look at it closely and see if you can figure out why.

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 7:48 pm

I love how gorilla's digging himself deeper with every post and is pretty much admitting to us to being wolf-scum.

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 9:35 pm

Your argument would hold more water if ANYONE killing Nacho made sense. But really, there's absolutely nobody who had motivation to kill him, from what I've observed.

Yet he's dead, nonetheless.

It makes no sense. Were they trying to crosskill? Essentially, pondering Nacho's death is pretty worthless.

(Sorry, bit incoherent right now.)

mastin2 · Sat May 14, 2011 10:26 pm

Fun Mastin fact:

When playing as scum, I wouldn't eliminate those who I knew well. I'd know how to press their buttons, so to speak. Having played with Nacho enough, I've gotten to that level of familiarity.

I eliminate those I do NOT know, because they're a threat to me, since I can't predict them, since I do not know how to make them react the way I do.

Hence, I would never have killed Nacho. (Or Kise, for that matter.

)

mastin2 · Sun May 15, 2011 8:01 am

T-Bone's not wolf-scum. He's MafiaScum. (Sorry. Couldn't resist.

)

But still scum. (Five abilities for a JOAT seems a bit much. Three or four sounds more reasonable, but T-Bone literally claimed every single power possible: kill, protect, block, investigate [track], investigate-protect [watch].)

And I still say it's unwise to confirm or deny T-Bone's result, since regardless of whether it's accurate or not, role confirmation would not be alignment confirmation.

mastin2 · Sun May 15, 2011 8:36 am

If you get support from someone who I don't think is scum (support from T-Bone, Gorilla, and Zepher therefore do not count), then I will reveal.

Otherwise, your single opinion is going up against my single opinion. I think I should not reveal, and you think I should. In other words, if you get so much as a single one of my townreads (Charlie, Powerrox, Reckamonic, C-worl, tclaw) to support your stance, I will go along with that (presuming I don't get an equal number against it). Otherwise, I'm not claiming just for the sake of a single person. You're no Fate.

Here, I'll make it easy on you.

Town: Should I reveal whether T-Bone's result is accurate or not?

I'll discard the opinions of my scumreads. Neutral reads might count. Town-reads definitely do.

mastin2 · Sun May 15, 2011 8:44 am

^And now you see why I think it'd be a bad idea, with my main scumread supporting me claiming whether I've visited or not.

mastin2 · Sun May 15, 2011 8:49 am

Oh, and to make sure it's unambiguous:

I'm not going to claim my role at all. That'd be pointless. It's simply confirming or denying T-Bone's result which I'll be claiming.

mastin2 · Sun May 15, 2011 3:33 pm

Well, that's one request.
Still, though. The fact that multiple scumreads were FOR it leaves me hesitant.
I'll claim whether T-Bone's result for me is accurate in 24 hours, unless one of my town-reads objects. (C-worl obviously doesn't.)

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 8:31 am

Y'know, it didn't really work out the last time I tried calling scumteams...

...But this time? I'm feelin' a lot better about this.

Calling it

: The Scumteams are {Jindori, Gorilla, Zepher} and {Nacho, T-Bone, Singer}.

Their interactions are definitely scum, scumhunting the other scum. Seriously, just look at Zepher and Gorilla's posts. They're so full of wolf-slips it's not even funny. Same goes for T-Bone and his mafia-slips. Among others is their selective scumhunting. I can quote any great number of posts where they're selectively scumhunting.

The weakest read here is singer. In theory, the final mafia could be Implosion (no), ConSpiracy (doubtful), singer (current main suspect), or Chrono (secondary suspect). I read her interactions with T-Bone as bussing.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 8:48 am

ConSpiracy: I had a sudden realization about claiming (last night, at something like 1 am) whether T-Bone is correct or not.

That simply put, my claim only benefits scum.

The reason why?

Not exactly what you'd think.

The reason why is because in my wording, any pro-town player would be able to instinctively understand my answer without me having given one, whereas a scum player MIGHT be able to if they thought about it hard enough, but that instinctively, they wouldn't know.

In other words, everyone who needs to know my answer already should. Everyone who doesn't need to know currently doesn't have an answer. And I'm not inclined to give them one.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 8:49 am

I'd love to elaborate on the above, but to do so would be counterproductive, since it'd let the scum in on the secret which any pro-town player should've picked up on by now.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 8:53 am

Also, to address Zepher.

You're scum for reasons you yourSELF noticed.

Zepher, on Gorilla's Wolf-Slip wrote:I think I see it, but we're at the point where we NEED to lynch scum.

This, ITSELF is a wolf-slip, now that I think about it. But the fact that you haven't noticed wolf-slips from yourself despite having noticed them in others when they're pretty much identical has confirmed you as being a wolf.

...It makes sense in my head, alright?

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 8:54 am

...Was that the hammer? *checks votecount*

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 8:56 am

Nah. T-Bone's at L-2. Too bad.

Had that been the hammer, it REALLY woulda cemented Zepher as scum. Now it only semi-cements him as scum.

(It's intuitive enough to me. See if you can figure out the reasons why.)

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 9:46 am

Indeed, Zepher, the scum hammering rule is quite stupid, and I don't believe in it. That wouldn't be the reason you'd be confirmed scum if you hammered. The vote itself wouldn't have been the issue. It's the motivation BEHIND the vote, and there'd have been no town motivation from you to hammer T-Bone in such a way. Hence, confirmed scum. Especially since you admitted to checking the votecount, so it would've been doubly-condemning.

Since you didn't, I still find you're likely scum for the vote, just for different reasons. It's a bit hard to explain, but anyone with eyes might be able to see it.

Also, I realize town has no reason to double-check themselves. But that's not what I said. I said noticed wolf-slips you've made. As in, already posted. And if you review your posts, you can see general trends in there which form a pattern:

A pattern identical to Gorilla's. The fact that you saw it in him and yet can't see it in yourself when you two are one and the same is evidence you're scum, because as town you'd have realized the similarity. You would've either revised your opinion on Gorilla (no longer seeing it as bad, with your biased opinion on your similar posts), or tried to explain the difference between his and yours.

Instead, you deny that the wolf-slips exist when you saw them in Gorilla, and that's what makes you scum with him.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 9:53 am

ConSpiracy, the problem is that you're not thinking of me as being town.

If you're town, try it. Think of me as town. Then, try to put yourself in my shoes. You have that town mindframe. So, think of the reasons why I wouldn't claim whether T-Bone's correct or not as town. And it'll all become clear to you. It'll snap into place, make perfect sense if you're town.

But only if you see me as town and are town yourself.

I can say this because scum trying to do the same exact trick will fail. Since they already have that scum mindframe, first they have to GUESS what a town mindframe is, and THEN put themselves into my shoes, and THEN try to guess my motivation for not claiming, but they won't be able to shake off their scum biases a good 70-90% of the time. In other words, they might draw conclusions from it, but their conclusions will be flawed and incomplete.

Whereas with town, it'll naturally fall into place, almost like an instinct. It did for me. Once I thought about it, I realized and instantly knew about this last night, that it'd work and that any townsperson would be able to figure it all out, whereas the scum would be left confused and wondering WTF I'm rambling about.

It works. It really does. If you're town, and--just for a moment--can see me as being also town, you'll understand. Otherwise, it'll fail. If you think I'm scum, it won't work. If you ARE scum, it won't work.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 9:56 am

For instance. C-worl (town for sure) obviously was trying, but fell short because he thinks I'm scum. If he saw me as town and overcame his biases--for so much as a single moment--then he'd realize the truth when looking at my posts.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 10:02 am

Users browsing this forum: gorilla, mastin2
^I bet Gorilla's trying to make sense of my post right now. And inevitably will fail, because he's scum, not town.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 10:49 am

The more people post on the matter of me claiming whether T-Bone had an accurate result or not, the more me needing to claim becomes unnecessary. I already said that I wasn't going to claim my role today, no matter what, so the "scum fakeclaiming" holds no water, since there's nothing stopping me from doing that if I DID answer, anyway, if I was scum.

Funny, how both Zepher and Gorilla consider me town, yet dismiss me as being worthless town. And both think the other could be wolf-scum but isn't mafia-scum. And are LARGELY focused on selectively scumhunting.

Really, it can't get more obvious.

(Also, for the record, tclaw's still town.)

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 10:59 am

For the record, Tclaw's scumlist is simply amazing, there. Nailed two mafia-scum, AND two wolf-scum. Hopefully, tclaw still believes in those reads, 'cause they're dang-good ones.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 11:04 am

Dude. Of COURSE I was off in my wolf reads. Pine flipping town proved that. That's why I wasn't considered a threat. Because I was on the wrong track with one of them, and was divided quite badly between the other three! Simply put, I was no threat to the wolves.

But today? No, now my reads are accurate. The interactions which have grown over the course of today have given me the entire scum this game. Thanks!

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 11:06 am

Gorilla wrote:I die tonight and flip town. How do your reads change?

ConSpiracy replaces you. I think he's town, currently, but interactions with Zepher and T-Bone suggest he COULD be a wolf. Just less likely.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 4:11 pm

Implosion, I have no way to describe Powerrox as town without relying on others, since my town-read came from interaction with others. But not what you think.
Not VCA.

Powerrox was town way back when Power was still bristep. Powerrox continued the trend. Simply put, Power/Bri makes no sense as scum on either faction due to their actions.

It's something which is invisible by ISO-reads. By ISO-reading 'em, they look terrible. Put things into context, however, and you'll find that Bristep and therefore Powerrox were some of the towniest players there were.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 4:54 pm

I'm ready for the day to end myself.

Vote: T-Bone

. Hammer.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 5:03 pm

I know, I know, but it's a statement.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 5:16 pm

...What.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 5:17 pm

Seriously at a loss of words, here. That word seems to better describe things than anything else.
Just...what.

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 5:18 pm

Demon wrote:Everyone but T-Bone may talk.

And yet, I have no words to say...

mastin2 · Mon May 16, 2011 5:21 pm

Apparently?

It's just, uh, not what I was expecting.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 5:59 am

So, I reviewed the evidence on Chronopie last night, and concluded that he is, in fact, not scum. What this means is that Singersigner IS. (She's MafiaScum.)

Vote: Gorilla

.

Why not singer?

I've made my opinion on the matter of vigs perfectly clear. Right now, her faction's screwed. Had one member NK'd by scum, and the other member lynched the day after that. She NEEDS to do the town's will. And if there's a single kill we disagree with as having been vig-like, we lynch her, their faction's gone. (Last night doesn't count, since she didn't know about this "act-like-a-vig-or-you-die" plan until just now.)

Speaking of which, let's start a Vig Pool, shall we?

Vig: MrZepher

.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:17 am

ConSpiracy wrote:No way vig pool is going to work.

And why the heck not? Singer has to follow this, or else she's dead. It'll work. If there's no clear majority, well, it's no different from a lynch.

Charlie: a Vig Pool is essentially players voting on who they want to have vigged overnight. Since singer is pretty much confirmed-last-mafia, that means she has to act like a vig or she's lynched. And since we're effectively being granted a second lynch, you can vote for your number one Wolf Suspect, and have your number two Wolf Suspect as your choice in the Vig Pool.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:24 am

Hey, guys? Know how I never use a curse word, ever?
I do plenty of "WTF" and event "The Eff?"s, I do plenty of BS's, but how I never actually curse? How I say "dang" and "darn", "heck" and "crud", never actually cursing? Yeah, most people tend not to notice it, but I seriously dislike cursing. In fact, in all my mafia career, I've cursed a grand total of one time, and that was a "D it". So...

Gorilla wrote:I'm the cop.

Bullshit.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:31 am

Shall I explain to you exactly why that claim is the largest pile of BS I've ever seen? Or will you just trust me and lynch Gorilla the Wolf?

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:32 am

For the record, I do not want to claim unless I really have to. But from the sounds of it, ConSpiracy, were you thinking I was a wolf? That's the impression I got out of your posts.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:35 am

Here's how things will go.
We lynch Gorilla. When he flips wolf-scum, Singer will intentionally try not to crosskill. Same with the remaining wolf (Zepher, in all likelihood).
Then, tomorrow, we lynch Singer, to get rid of the mafia.
One wolf kill later, and we've got plenty of mislynches left to find the remaining wolf.

But trust me. Gorilla NEEDS to die, TODAY. He's lying, spewing a bunch of BS.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:38 am

Doing the calculations. Nine alive into night, seven alive during morning, six alive the next night, five alive after that.
That's two lynches to find the remaining wolf. Not as much as I thought, but still plenty.

Doing the calculations for lynching singer today and will post 'em in a minute. I still think a Gorilla lynch is the best option, but just to make sure...

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:39 am

Confirm

VOTE: Gorilla.
Seriously, look at this guy. Does he look at all like a real cop? He's not.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:41 am

Calculating things with a singer lynch: nine alive going into night.
Eight alive coming out. Lynching Gorilla.
Seven alive going into night.
Six alive going out.

...The exact same number, if you think about it, since with even-numbers, we'd no-lynch and be down to five, anyway.

So, yeah. Singer can wait until tomorrow. Gorilla dies today, period, end of discussion.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:43 am

Gorilla's flailing scum. It's quite obvious. Look at his play. I need not claim to get him lynched.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:44 am

ConSpiracy wrote:And gorilla, why didn't you post any reasons for your night results?

He's faking them, that's why.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:46 am

Alright, so looks like I'll need to prove to you he's lying, eh?

Not that hard, considering how BS'd his results are.

Gorilla knew he was going to be lynched today. He KNEW he needed a strong claim to keep himself from being lynched. He knew there was a Seer, but took a gambit and was betting that there was no Cop in the game, despite there being a Seer. And I'm quite positive of this. I'm sure I can prove it in ten minutes, even.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:47 am

Powerrox wrote:Are you a mafia-only cop (Considering that a seer has flipped) or are you a full-scum cop

Option C: scum fakeclaiming cop.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:50 am

N1: MrZepher - not guilty
N2: implosion - not guilty
N3: T-Bone - guilty
N4: Reckamonic - no result

First off, these results.
Zepher has been who I've been calling Gorilla's buddy ever since Pine was revealed to not be.
Second result--isn't it convenient that Implosion--who he buddied with yesterday due to the whole T-Bone thing--is also a result? Isn't it convenient that he buddied up to Zepher, another result? Isn't it convenient he had a guilty on T-Bone the same day T-Bone was pushing him as scum?

And isn't it convenient that he claims to have been roleblocked when investigating the PGO?

When the only word we have that there IS a Roleblocker comes from a dead-VT Kise?

No, I don't think we have a roleblocker in this setup.

And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:51 am

ConSpiracy wrote:But it is a good crumb.

Heck no it isn't.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:54 am

Think about it:
Mafia Tracker.
Werewolf Watcher.
We know there's the former, and the latter we can assume from dead-scum.

Where does Roleblocker come into play? Would both factions have one? Heck no. What role goes with a Roleblocker? There isn't one. It's not going to be a Jailkeeper, either, since that's even stronger.

We have no roleblocker.
Therefore, Gorilla is lying scum.

Prove me wrong, that the scumteams don't have similar powers when their flips so far (WW Goon, Mafia Goon, implied WW Watcher, Confirmed Mafia Tracker) have suggested they do.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 6:58 am

Oh, I don't doubt you thought he was scum.

But I do think you're the opposite scum faction, who desperately decided to claim cop to save yourself from being lynched. I'm running out of time before I have to leave, but again. I can prove that Gorilla's lying, quite easily.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 7:00 am

t-bone is watching this thread right now and probably laughing his head off

Crying tears of joy, more like it, that we're lynching a wolf:

YOU.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 7:01 am

ConSpiracy wrote:Rage seems fake. Reason to investigate implosion is weak.

Exactly! This is Gorilla, acting as caught scum, panicking because his fakeclaim is backfiring on him.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 7:07 am

Gorilla wrote:give me one good reason to expect there being a seer in the setup and not a cop, mastin

Because cop is one of the only fakeclaims you could've made.
Doctor?
You'd likely be lynched.
Watcher?
Admitting to being a wolf.
Tracker?
Not with a scum one flipped.
Vig?
Yeah, right.
Roleblocker?
People've been saying that's a scum ability since Kise claimed to have been blocked.

Cop really was the only claim you could've made that had a chance of working. And you likely looked at the thread and couldn't determine any player you thought to strongly BE a cop, took a risk, and watched it backfire on you as you panicked and realized your claim was full of holes and that it's condemned you to death.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 7:09 am

If only I had the time to prove Gorilla was scum. But I'm running out of time before I have to leave. (Really, I shoulda left fifteen minutes ago, but Gorilla's just so confirmed scum I can't let the thread go...)

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 7:43 am

Gorilla wrote:Furthermore, you have already assumed I won't be counter-claimed

A-hem.

Scumclaim.

Right here and there, with this line.

Want more?

Well, then, compare to this quote just before that which states confidence in the opposite.

@mastin: except there would be a counter-claim if I was scum claiming cop and then I'd be screwed.

you assume my legitimacy even while you call me scum.

And this is more proof of a scumclaim.

Read his words, and tell me, with a completely straight face, that Gorilla isn't faking it. Tell me, with complete and total honesty, "I buy Gorilla's claim *any number more than 80%*." I dare you to. Heck, you shouldn't be buying the claim more than 50%. I, for one, buy it -100%. As in, there is not a chance, absolutely NO scenario, where Gorilla's an actual cop.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 7:57 am

Mastin, possibly paraphrased wrote:I would prefer not to claim unless I absolutely have to.

Too lazy to track down my exact words, but I said it before, and I'll say it again:
I shouldn't have to claim for you all to realize we've got caught scum.

Yesterday, I didn't need to claim whether I targeted Nacho or not, because T-Bone was scum; confirmed role isn't the same as confirmed alignment, so me confirming/denying his result on me was unnecessary.

Today, I don't need to claim my role, because Gorilla is scum, fakeclaiming so obviously that a claim from me is completely unnecessary for you to realize he's scum.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 8:01 am

Fine, then.

I told you I wouldn't claim until it was necessary.

To me, that meant "Become the lead wagon".

Yes, I am the effing cop, who is counter-claiming Gorilla

. NOW can we lynch him? (I'll post MY 'crumbs in a moment.)

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 8:16 am

Mastin wrote:-C-worl looked town. Unvote.
-So did tclawren.

Lowell investigated tclaw Night Two. That was my innocent, and why I have been defending tclaw as town from the MOMENT I replaced in.

Personally, I don't see why it'd be necessary. (Since I thought Tclawren looked town, and therefore shouldn't be forced to claim.)

Anyway, going to start reading up on the game.
Preview-Edit: Gah, I told you so. >_<

More evidence of my tclaw result.

Mastin, ISO 5 wrote:-tclawren is town.

23. tclawren <--Town.

And then, continuing to list tclaw as town.

For the record?

The Mod wrote:tclawren - 6 (implosion, ConSpiracy, Pine, C-Worl, Reckamonic, Chronopie) L-3
This wagon needs to die. Quickly.

And so on and so on.

I could quote all day exactly why Lowell got an innocent on tclaw night two. Note that Lowell was suspicious of tclaw the whole game and voted C-worl on Day Three rather than Tclaw.

Since I took over day three, that meant that I knew how to play cop smart from there-on.

I did a 'crumb day three which spelt out "COP", but I can't find it--it's there somewhere, though. On day three, you have this:

Mastin's First Post On Day Four wrote:Instead, I DID do a background check on Nacho last night and confirmed he was scum

Background check. Investigation. Confirmed him as scum.

Why Nacho?

Following my guide to Proper Cop Play, of course. I didn't think Nacho would be night-killed (what wolf was in there right mind doing that?!? >_<), and thought he wasn't going to be lynched. If he was town, I knew that he was going to be one of the best scumhunters here once cleared as being innocent. If he was scum, it'd confirm my read on him.

And my FIRST post on Day Five?

First Post wrote:So, I reviewed the evidence on Chronopie last night, and concluded that he is, in fact, not scum.

Reviewed the evidence. Not Scum. Yeah.

Why Chronopie?

Simple--Chrono's reads matched my own. He was unlikely to be lynched ever since T-Bone attacked him hard, he was unlikely to be NK'd, and he obviously was competent since he was the only one other than me who called both Nacho AND T-Bone to be scum together.

So, yeah. Either I am scum who planned this fakeclaim FROM THE MOMENT I REPLACED IN, or I am, in fact, the real cop.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 8:22 am

So, yes.

T-Bone's result on me was accurate: I DID visit Nacho Night Three.

He was still scum, but he got that little bit right. Meaning he likely tracked me. I think he legitimately thought Gorilla to be scum--possibly a result from a previous night, or maybe just a good scumread. And I believe the Mafia killing Implosion was their way of saying, "It wasn't Implosion, so go after Gorilla!"

I used a precision S strike on Gorilla's claim for a dang-good reason, too. Simply put, Gorilla tried claiming the ONE thing which could have potential to save him...yet it backfired. Like I said, it was a good move--Gorilla really had no other POSSIBLE claim to save him--but he's still scum, fakeclaiming.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 8:24 am

So, it looks like my scum list really hasn't changed at all for quite some time.
Mafia: Singersigner. She can live for now.
Werewolves: Gorilla (now confirmed!

), Zepher.

If it's not Zepher, my best guess would be ConSpiracy.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 8:27 am

Hey, wolf buddy to Gorilla!

Bus him, and you'll earn free townie points!*

*Offer not valid on days seven and onwards.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 8:29 am

Powerrox wrote:@Mastin: Why did you wait so long with CCing.

I made it quite clear that I did not think claiming was necessary to get a Gorilla lynch. Seriously, even if I WASN'T the role he's claiming to be, I'd still be lynching him because of how full of holes his claim is. He's a wolf. It's as simple as that. It's so obvious, it's been so obvious, since pretty much the moment I replaced in.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 8:31 am

Powerrox wrote:but at this point I find a vig in the set-up higly unlikely

The mafia--singersigner--right now are effectively limited to being a vig, because we know their last member. If she fails to comply, she's lynched. Simple as that. It's not a real vig; it's a "Vig".

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 8:35 am

Users browsing this forum: gorilla, mastin2
^He's desperately trying to think of a way to make his claim look stronger than mine, when I've been effectively blatantly telling you all I'm a cop since the beginning. Since the moment I came into the game. I've been hinting. I've been showing. I've been TELLING you that I'm the cop. And now that Gorilla realizes this obvious mistake, the flaw he had not seen before, he's trying to find a way to discredit me, but he will not find one, because I am the cop, and he is not.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 8:46 am

Gorilla wrote:he ate nacho but was being coy about it.

Dude. I told you that I investigated him. I said as much in my first post that day, BEFORE T-BONE CLAIMED HIS RESULTS. Was I scum who somehow knew he had been tracked to the kill and thought of this brilliant fakeclaim all of a sudden?

Occam's razor. I am a cop, who targeted Nacho N3, which T-Bone obviously saw.
Not scum, who fakeclaimed a cop result before even KNOWING that he had been tracked.

He knew nacho would be able to read him, that's why he killed him even though nacho was scummy/useless.

I had made it clear by then that I'd have killed people who could read me well--like Nacho--yes. And that's why the wolves likely did it: to FRAME me. Notice how they also killed C-worl, who was Prime Mislynch Bait for multiple days in a row, yet was attacking me. They wanted to frame me, get me lynched. But I'm not that stupid. IF I were scum, I'd have killed C-worl the night BEFORE lylo IF he was still tunneling on me. Because before then, he'd have been a single useless voice against me, gaining no support. Last night wasn't the night before lylo.

ADDITIONALLY, look how hard I was drilling it in that Nacho was scum! From the moment I replaced in, pretty much, I was trying to get Nacho lynched. Why would I kill him if I wanted to lynch him?!? It'd make no sense for me as scum.

Why would I kill C-worl when it'd implicate me? ESPECIALLY since he's been at risk of being lynched every day?

In other words, no wolf kill makes sense from me.

From Gorilla, however, the kills make perfect sense.

He tried to avoid CCing me because he wanted to be able to get me lynched then slip away with it.

Yeah, and...
This is wrong, why?

When you're scum, claiming my role?

Of COURSE I'm going to try and avoid CC'ing you, to get you lynched without claiming, and slip away with it, since that'd mean the wolves wouldn't know I was the cop!

It's smart cop play, put pure and simple.

His result of being blocked is also BS, as I explained.

Gorilla's results are EXTREMELY 'conveniently' placed. They're some of the most scummy, worst possible cop play results POSSIBLE.

Mine make perfect sense, fit with my play, fit with everything I've done this entire game.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 8:54 am

Gorilla wrote:You investigated the player who called Nacho and T-Bone as scum, and was targeted for a lynch by T-Bone from day 1 onward. You investigated a player who had virtually 0 chance of being mafia scum. You're a fucking liar.

No. It was smart play. There were two possible third-mafia suspects to me:
Singer and Chronopie.

I made this VERY clear in my posts.

I decided to look at the person I had more confidence in. I investigated the player who had shown himself to be competent, unlikely to be lynched, and doubtfully NK'd. I investigated exactly who I needed to, because despite the fact that he was most likely town, there was a chance--however remote--that he was scum. I needed that chance removed.

Read my guide on smart cop play.

This is the EXACT way to use the role I lay out. Competent? He called T-Bone and Nacho scum. Check. Unlikely to be lynched? The T-Bone interaction confirmed this, along with some Nacho interaction. Check. Doubtfully NK'd? Despite the fact that he likely wasn't going to be lynched, he had always had some quite major suspicion on him, enough to stop him from being an apetizing target. So, yes, check here as well.

Compare to Singer.
Competent?
Not really.
Unlikely to be lynched?
...Okay, maybe, but there's been some interest in lynching her playerslot this entire game.
Unlikely to be NK'd? This is the only one she passes with flying colors.

Despite the fact that I suspected her MORE, she is not who needed to be cleared. Chronopie was. I did EXACTLY what I SHOULD have done by investigating Chronopie: I gave us a person who's absolutely not a wolf.

Lynching Gorilla will win us the game. One wolf, one mafia, which we pretty well know both of. It's not that hard to figure out.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 8:57 am

Gorilla wrote:and I expected he would've counter-claimed right away.

And herein lies your mistake, having assumed I'm a normal player who does the typical idiotic cop play. Like I said. I WROTE the guide on smart cop play. I've read up on Cop Theory. Cop was the first non-scum role I got (twice in a row!

). I know how to play Cop FAR better than you know how to fakeclaim Cop.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 9:05 am

Gorilla wrote: investigating chronopie, who had no chance of being mafia?

1: Incorrect, and blatantly false.
2: And already explained, anyway. Chronopie's competent. And--no offense meant, singer, but your play has sucked this game--singer has not demonstrated said competency.

Both were Mafia Suspects.

I chose to confirm the player who would be more useful AS confirmed. Same as it was with Nacho: had he been town, confirming him would've been one of the best plays ever, because Confirmed-town-Nacho STEAMROLLS scum.

Smart cop play. Not idiotic pointless cop play which makes no sense whatsoever coming from a real cop.

Gorilla wrote:Look, folks, just do me a favor. pull up jindori's ISO.

HORRIBLE way to play. But, let's humor you. Control-F for Gorilla. You get two matches. One, a butchered quote. The other?

Him agreeing with Gorilla.

I could look and find all the players Jindori hasn't mentioned, and it'd likely be a good long list. Especially considering the people who didn't post much are less likely for Jindori to need commenting on. What's equally important is who he DOES mention, and where.

Agreeing with Gorilla-->enough to suggest a link between them-->made stronger when jindori freaked out at Gorilla voting him-->Gorilla is scum with Jindori.

It makes a whole lot more sense than Jindori being scum with Lowell.

Heck, let me put it this way: If Jindori was scum with Lowell, I'd expect him to comment on the ABSENCE of a scum partner, which he didn't do. Therefore, Lowell-->Not Jindori's partner-->Not scum-->I am town.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 9:09 am

Gorilla wrote:saying chronopie could have been mafia is bullshit, it would have required T-Bone to be bussing from his first serious vote

Which--while admittedly a bit unlikely--was not out of the question. The earlier one begins bussing, the more effective it is. There was a lot which suggested Chronopie was possibly mafia. And while outweighed by the evidence suggesting he wasn't, it was still possible enough to warrant investigation, ESPECIALLY when the alternative for confirmed-not-mafia was singersigner. Who hasn't played nearly as well as Chronopie, and therefore was a sub-optimal choice.

...*sigh*. Do I have to track down the link to proper cop play? Or do I have to keep hammering in the principles behind that guide which I follow as often as I can?

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 9:36 am

Gorilla wrote:p-edit: newbie scum ignore their scumbuddies, they don't buddy them, this is mafia 101

Wrong. Absolutely false. As scum, you're hyperaware of your scumbuddies. And even newbie-scum look to their buddies, ESPECIALLY if said buddy is more experienced than they are. You do NOT ignore them. Quite the opposite.

If there's ONE thing I know, Gorilla, it's how Newbies act. My play in Large Games might not be the best, but in Newbie Games, I'm good at figuring out the mind of newbies, and I know newbie scum.

Which means, I KNOW you're wrong, and BS'ing, because ignoring your scumpartner is something I see VETERAN* scum do more often than NEWBIE scum.

*Okay, to clarify, it's more like middle-experienced people. Master players actually act a lot like Newbies do, only far better. Veteran players think that playing like a newbie is idiotic, not realizing that in the technique of newbies there's actually a lot of beauty, a lot of good scumhunting / faking scumhunting techniques in there if you know how to look. This is more my personal theory than anything else, but still, point stands: Newbie Scum do NOT ignore their partners; to them, that's a deathtrap.

Hello would you like some cheese with your wine?

I do not drink wine, thank you very much. I observe night actions, and think about the people doing it and how they drink their wine, and form conclusions--educated guesses--from that.

Seriously. It's STUPID play to ignore night actions. (This is another thing which solidifies my Newbies-Are-Geniuses-Which-Master-Players-Copy theory, by the way--Newbies look at night actions. Vets ignore it as WIFOM. Master players, however, DO nightkill speculation, just in a more reformed, less-newbie way. But again, "Newbies Are Geniuses" is a subject for an MD article, not something which we should debate in a game.)

Sure, the only way to know the night actions' exact reasons is to be the one performing them, but you can make educated guesses. And in making educated guesses, it's not that hard to figure things out.

as scum, what's a more powerful tool: killing people who want to lynch townies or leaving them alive so they vote townies with you? It's the latter, obviously.

Theoretically, yeah. But scum don't think this way. They ignore the general trends and look at players, SPECIFICALLY, and think of who's the best kill for them, and why. A C-worl kill makes no sense from me, nor does a Nacho kill, because their deaths do nothing to make me avoid a lynch. C-worl's single vote wasn't important: leaving him alive, he gets no support on me.
By KILLING him, he's made a martyr, and suddenly, people begin to rethink their positions. This is why I'm not scum, and you are.
You think that by killing C-worl, you're framing me.

I know that by killing C-worl, I'm putting myself in a very bad position.

Which is more useful?
A kill which frames a town player, or a kill which frames yourself?

Yeah, it's the former, isn't it, Gorilla?

Night-Kill Analysis is awesome. The kills make perfect sense coming from you, make no sense coming from me.

I'm not stupid, most people aren't going to analyze nightkills.

Their mistake. There's valuable information in there, mainly that C-worl was killed to frame me. It's painfully obvious when you think about it. C-worl was nothing but a mere nuisance to me. I didn't want him dead. I wouldn't want him dead as scum, either, because he's no threat alive.

He's MORE of a threat DEAD. Because everyone KNOWS that the kills are chosen for a REASON. Most choose not to analyze the reasons, sure, but again, that's their error. C-worl being killed by me serves no reason other than to make me look worse. C-worl being killed by you serves a perfect reason: framing me.

Gorilla wrote:Saying someone else killed them to "frame" you is ridiculous.

No, it's not. I think this way all the time as scum. Look at the mafia's kill, for instance. They were trying to frame you by saying "Implosion was town, Gorilla isn't!" Essentially. Or--in this case--not so much "frame" as "lynch the other faction, not me, please!"

It's just how scum think. Scum love to think in framing others. It's just what they do. Scum love to frame others. Scum hate to engage in WIFOM about their kills, because they know it won't end well.

As scum, I'd know that a C-worl kill would make me look worse. As scum, I'd therefore know that I'd have to say it was framing me. And as scum, I'd KNOW that it'd be called WIFOM which nobody would believe. And as scum, I'd KNOW that I'd end up lynched for it, both because C-worl's become a martyr AND because I tried to justify it as being WIFOM.

But, oh, as YOU being scum, you know a C-worl kill will make me look worse. You knew it'd frame me. And you knew I'd have no defense against it other than WIFOM, which'd make me look worse. In other words, win-win for you, lose-lose for me. No matter how you put it, a C-worl kill only makes sense coming from YOU.

You're saying I intended to frame you from night 3 onward when I wasn't sure about you day 3 , that my whole master plan was to get you lynched before I had any way of knowing you'd claim cop.

Oh, but you see? Here's the beauty of it. Yes, you had no way of knowing I was the cop. And that's WHY you didn't kill me, BECAUSE you didn't know! Had you have known, I'd be dead right now. You have to understand the context:
Because I had pushed T-Bone AND Nacho for being lynched, I couldn't be mafia. (BY YOUR OWN LOGIC, GORILLA!)

So, that'd make me Werewolf or Town. Everyone's opinion on me has been largely neutral this game, perhaps leaning a little towards scum. A C-worl kill would be all you need to push the scales in my direction, push the scales towards lynching me, and it's apparently worked quite well.

I'm theorizing that you were intending to frame me from the beginning, just didn't anticipate that I'd have the ONE claim capable of RUINING your plans. You went after me WELL before I claimed, after all.

As for the missing result: would prefer not to claim it, yet.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 9:54 am

Gorilla wrote:No there really isn't a chance of Chronopie being mafia, I don't care about bussing theory, they weren't bussing

Indeed they weren't. But it was POSSIBLE that they were. There was a CHANCE, which I NEEDED to get rid of. It was smart cop play, pure and simple.

I investigated people I thought might be suspicious

Weak weak weak weak weak weak weak, weak weak, weak, weak, WEAK play. Your investigations are sketchy at BEST, confirmation you're scum at worst. (Which it is, since I'm the cop and you're not.) Your play has sucked, your results are convenient, everything points to you being scum. And again, I'd be trying to lynch you for those BS results EVEN IF I WASN'T THE REAL COP, because they're just so scummy! They're EXACTLY what scum would want to claim. They're results which fit perfectly with a weak scum-cop claim, likely devised overnight with the help of your buddy, but which wasn't thought out well enough for you to pull it off.

Especially since you got counterclaimed by the one person who had it better planned than you did: the ACTUAL role, the true cop, who had better results because he's the real deal, not some cheap imitation of it.

whih I fully believe is the right play in a large game.

While not necessarily WRONG, investigating who you're suspicious of takes judgement. I investigated Nacho, who I thought was scum, but my reasons for investigating him was pretty much everything EXCEPT that I thought he was scum. I investigated Chronopie, who I thought wasn't scum, partially to confirm the read, sure, but more important were the other three factors I mentioned.

There's too many potential suspects to work via PoE

EXACTLY why traditional cop play DOES NOT WORK. Investigating suspsects IS PoE. Investigating SMARTLY is NOT. I was wrong about Nacho not being killed (unfortunately >_<), but I was right about Chrono, was I not?

too many deaths per night as well to be able to collect innocents

Only if you investigate obv-kills. I investigated people who I specifically thought would NOT die. (Shame, I was wrong about one of 'em.)

best strategy as cop is to investigate scum.

And unless your reads are perfect, guess what?
You'll end up with scummy town players who you just cleared, and to stop them from being lynched, looks like you have to claim! Whoops!

Yeah, that's why it aint smart cop play. Investigating who you suspect should be done during the day. With rope. That's how you investigate a player you suspect.

To be fair, I don't blame you for not knowing how to fakeclaim brilliant cop results, fakeclaim smart cop results. It's not something everyone knows how to do. It's just that in fakeclaiming traditional extremely suspicious results, you've condemned yourself to death because you didn't fakeclaim the right way.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 9:56 am

I'm not quoting Gorilla's post because I already answered everything there in the wall, already.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 10:15 am

Gorilla wrote:You're trying to argue I must be scum because I didn't play cop according to your strategy, that's straight-up moronic

No, I am not. I am arguing that in trying to fakeclaim traditional cop results, you made some extremely suspicious investigation choices which are rather convenient. It REEKS of a fakeclaim.

And I give my results--the REAL ones--as a counter-example. By showing you how a good cop plays, how a good cop can give smart results which hold stronger than yours. Yours? Suspicious. Mine? Make perfect sense.

My play fits with how I view cops. My play is classic Cop-Mastin. My play is something which is either legitimate, or something which had to be faked from the MOMENT I replaced in.

Your play is how I view dumb cops, which--while understandable that you didn't know about smart cop play--means that your results in comparison to mine are quite inferior. Your play is exactly what I'd expect to see scum fakeclaim. Your play, your convenient results, takes only one night to think up. You could've fakeclaimed in ten minutes with the thought you put into that. They look fake. They look like they're names you picked to conveniently give a somewhat-believable claim.

Compared to mine. Mine which to fake would require countless hours of thinking, constant pondering on that exact small detail, which would require a lot of precision and forethought. Not from last night--which yours easily could've been faked in--but from the entire time I've been playing. My names aren't the convenient, stereotypical names you'd expect. Mine are the ones which aren't convenient.

Simply put, your claim sucked. By sticking to tradition, your fakeclaim was weaker than the stronger more modern, smart cop who did things the way a cop is SUPPOSED to.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 10:18 am

ConSpiracy wrote:Mastin, if you are competent enough, you should target Reck tonight.

And get myself killed? When it's likely I'm already the nightkill?

That won't do anything, ConSpiracy. Since I'm dead tonight, anyway, investigating Reckamonic won't confirm or disprove them being the PGO.

If I had a guarantee I'm not the wolf kill for tonight, sure, but the only way I'd get that is if a wolf claimed.

mastin2 · Fri May 20, 2011 10:28 am

ConSpiracy wrote:Last day you asked me to understand. Now you have to think and I am the one to be understood.

Ah, I think I see.

mastin2 · Mon May 23, 2011 4:08 pm

So, I realize that claim backfired horribly, but I really thought Gorilla was scum, and honestly believed he was fakeclaiming. It was to the point where I was sure there was no actual cop in the game. It really looked like Gorilla was gambiting on there being no counter-claim, gambiting that there was no cop. I legitimately believed that, so strongly, that I was positive I was doing the right thing in stopping him from getting away. And I thought that--even if I was wrong and if a cop existed--they were smart enough not to counter-claim and were letting me do their work for them.

Gorilla really did have to be scum. (Like Pine. >_<) And apparently because he's not, I suck this game and my gambit failed.

I'm obviously not the cop, but I'm not scum, either. I'm really

the doctor

. Now, I didn't claim to be a doctor because we already had a jailkeeper flip, and I thought you'd think I was fakeclaiming, because doctor's, like, the most stereotypical scum claim there is. More than that, claiming Doctor leaves me vulnerable, since I cannot self-protect. By claiming Cop, I make the scum think that if a doctor's alive, they'd be on me. And when I was reading the game just before I replaced in, I came up with the crazy idea that there WAS no Cop in the game, so that when I replaced in, I could be awesome and fake to be one.

Yeah, not the best play. Quite moronic of me, really, but I'm an impulsive player by nature and that's just what I do best: think of an idea--no matter how insane it seems to others--and stick to it until the end. It went horribly wrong, because I was COMPLETELY wrong about Gorilla, but I really am the Doc.

Lowell protected Singersigner Night One and Two. You can see this in his reads, if you look, that he looked favorably on Shift, who she replaced.

Then I came in. And I protected my own favorable reads. Tclaw was nights three and four. And last night, I protected Zepher, who's the only clear from Gorilla still alive.

And this is likely why there's that kill missing--the wolves wanted to take someone out who was confirmed not-mafia. So, yeah. Zepher's completely and totally confirmed town.

So, yes. I AM claiming responsibility for the lack of Wolf Kill. What does this mean? That I'm really a doctor, who did a bad move yet isn't scum. Got a better theory? It was the Werewolf kill that failed, so unless you think that I'm a wolf who intentionally no-killed in a One-in-a-million gambit to save my life, that does mean I stopped the kill.

So, I'm not a wolf. And since I went pretty hard agains T-Bone and Nacho, I'm not mafia, either.

So, put bluntly:

I'm not scum. I'm horrible town who was completely and totally wrong who did a huge gambit which failed, but town, nonetheless.

Oh, and in case it wasn't clear to you:

Zepher is

Completely

Confirmed Town, Now

.

What does that mean?

Well, that the wolves are within {Reckamonic, ConSpiracy, Tclaw}, of course. And I still think singer's Mafia, too.

mastin2 · Mon May 23, 2011 4:35 pm

Vote: ConSpiracy

.

mastin2 · Mon May 23, 2011 5:34 pm

Power, you're town. I know that.

At this stage in the game, you need to start thinking about it.

Why was the Werewolves' kill missing last night?

I claimed responsibility for it. I claimed to have protected Zepher from death.

More than that, I cleared a player I had absolutely NO reason to clear if I was scum. As town, though, I had every reason to protect Zepher, so I did.

You need to understand that I also thought Gorilla was scum fakeclaiming, and was dead-set to stop him from getting away with it at all costs--I was wrong, but wrong != scum. I gambitted big time with a fakeclaim, but fakeclaims != scum all the time.

I'm a ripe mislynch for the wolves, right now, but I am not a wolf, myself.

mastin2 · Mon May 23, 2011 9:48 pm

Because you should be, instead?

Come on. I want someone to raise their hand.
Anyone.
Raise your hand if you think ConSpiracy is town.
(*ConSpiracy slowly raises hand* Besides you, ConSpiracy.

)

I dare you to.

You really can't, because ConSpiracy isn't.

Now, tell me. If I were scum, who would my buddy be?

Zepher, who I just cleared? Powerrox, who I've been calling town the whole game? Singer, who I've called Mafia the whole time? Tclaw, who I ALSO have been defending, since before tclaw claimed? Reckamonic, who would currently be my choice for number two?

Simply put, nobody makes sense as being my scumbuddy, because I'm not scum.

mastin2 · Mon May 23, 2011 9:50 pm

ALSO,

I am at L-1

. Think of the speed of that wagon, and tell me you think it's all town. I effing DARE you to.

/Nothammering.

Important, since if I WERE scum, I'd self-hammer right now, end the day prematurely and cut off discussion so you can't find my buddy.

Since I'm not, I shall not hammer myself, as that'd be against my wincon.

mastin2 · Mon May 23, 2011 9:55 pm

Put bluntly: While I made a mistake, I am not sccum. I am town, because there's no logical way to make me scum. Why would I counter-claim the cop as scum? I had no reason to. Especially since it'd guarantee my lynch today.

Why would I counter-claim the cop as town?

Since I didn't believe him to be the cop, of course. I had a darn-good reason to, and I legitimately thought it was right and therefore that I would not be lynched.

Gambiting scum MIGHT have CC'd if the claim came a day later. Gambiting town, on the other hand, didn't care about such things.

Look at my play.

Tell me that it's scum-motivated. Tell me that I'm a wolf.

Tell me that I pushed Nacho and T-Bone and magicaly nailed the other scumteam as a wolf, when as scum the proper play would've been to slowly push my reads, rather than forcefully shove them on others.

You'll find that my play names NO sense as scum.

mastin2 · Mon May 23, 2011 9:58 pm

mastin2 - 4 (Chronopie, Reckamonic, Powerrox, ConSpiracy)
Funnily enough, both wolves are likely on my wagon, or soon to be. (Tclaw is the only one who hasn't posted, and very well may hammer me. Zepher knows I'm not lying about my Doc claim, and singer hasn't chimed in.)

Why?

Simple--because they're going after the easy mislynch. They're LAUGHING right now, going, "Thanks, Mastin, for getting us into lylo flawlessly!"

mastin2 · Mon May 23, 2011 10:01 pm

My vote on ConSpiracy is rather justified. I've been wrong this whole game about the wolves, sure. But I'm positive that ConSpiracy is one. Heck, I'm confident Reckamonic is one, too, because it makes so much sense.

And, hey. Let me put it this way:

Since I am a doctor, I--like Gorilla--can target Reckamonic, and if I don't die, Reckamonioc's scum. If I do die, well, then, tclaw's the replacement on the chopping block.

I am NOT going to let the town lose this game because of a failed gambit by me. Not when I finally--after having been wrong so long before--have it down.

mastin2 · Mon May 23, 2011 10:04 pm

And I'm pretty sure unless the wolves are moronic enough to kill singersigner, that they won't be getting rid of the Mafia during the night. Which means if we don't lynch a wolf today, WE LOSE.

That means it shouldn't be me who dies. I'll be dead soon enough. I'm a claimed doctor. ConSpiracy knows he's screwed because he knows I'm not lying. He KNOWS that my claim is legitimate, that I DID stop a kill on Zepher. You can see it with his buddying to Zepher. You can tell that he knows I am the Doctor, and you can tell he knows that I am a mislynch. It's written all over him.