NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

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My boards are over now! Yay!

Will catch up and post soon.

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A boy is coming over, so I need to stop. I made it through page 3 or 4. Here's what I wrote:

CATCH-UP NOTES

Here are notes for me:

Yos does not wagon or anti-wagon or anything.

Parama is probably town.

OMG MBL IS HERE WAT O_O <3

Hydra is likely town, provided a response to DH.

SF follows what I assume is a joke...this move...makes no sense...unless it is also a joke?

I had assumed that AGM was joking before, but he is apparently serious about it.

Did post-PM receipt, pre-game chat happen somewhere? I did not participate/have not read.

I don't agree with the implicit suggestion that dissonance is irrelevant in hydras.

This Hydra pressure does not make sense to me. Dislike Ythan's vote. He's basically voting him for a dispute about ideal hydra play (OR he thinks that scum's secret strategy is to publicize their subideal hydra play strategy and something has been different from normative hydra play so far, etc).

Meransiel was scum in Kdub's SE:Outsiders game, right? Then he's town this game. Otherwise, null.

Meransiel's unvote for what I'd assumed was an RVS vote with minimal pressure from Ythan is weird.

Hrezs's entry looks scummy. I don't know this player. More likely scum if he doesn't play often. Looks like an attempt to join the dominant discussion without any evaluation of whether it will find scum. Posting to post.

Meransiel's WIFOM argument is legit. <3 Meransiel continues.

Agree with SW's entry post 100%. But I wish she'd take it a step further...

MoI's entry post is...OK. I agree that SF has made some lame posts, and the "12 violations" post was confusing as it was posted, but he clarified it later. Shouldn't have needed clarification if he'd done things properly BUT.

Not sure why Kondi thinks that lynching masons is ftw... O.o MoI echoes.

Basically, I'm liking Meransiel, and I disliked all the weird hydra pressure. Scummiest post goes to Hrasz, but he's only posted once so far.

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I'm headed to the lake today, where there is literally limited access. But I'll still try to post at least once per day or so.

Then I leave for China Monday, which will be an adventure.

Boards being over is fun. <3

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Yay! I'm all caught up:

Final Catch-Up

I think DH is probably the Neighbor-scum, if there is one (not sure there is if RC co-modded the set-up -- I would assume a scum if Amrun had done it herself). That vote for Hydra is horrible. There is literally no case on Hydra.

WHAT WHY THE HELL DOES HYDRA THINK KONDI IS SCUM IN 129 WHAT.

PBuG's attack on the early kondi wagon is weird to me. For example, as I read, I assumed there was some kind of secret lynch-linked ability, and that that was the basis of all the votes. PBuG interpreted the wagon differently than I did.

I probably have the strongest town read on Meransiel soooooo ye. I actually had the same "PR status could help evaluate whether there are scumz" thought that he did, though I would never have actually asked about it. The neighborhood themselves should probably include this in the equation as they determine whether 3-town or 2-town is more plausible, though.

It's true that he's not really much like SE:Outsiders now, though.

Clarifying townslips is pro-town; it is not scummy. Hydra is now weird twice.

Saporovirus's entry underwhelms. I MUSTERED UP THE ENERGY AFTER BOARDS, WOMYN! WERK! Why do you think AGM is town, though?

OOK nevermind, you already answered that. Though this doesn't really answer what made you mistaken. Didn't read carefully...?

I don't think Meransiel has been subtle at all, so I disagree with PJ's "MERANSIEL IS SCUM WHO SNEAKS" idea. Hell, just a few posts ago Hydra was like MERANSIEL IS SO UNSUBTLE THAT PERHAPS SCUM COULD NOT DO THIS?

PJ's question re: DH/Parama ("Why didn't you clarify before agreeing to lynch your neighbor?") is an obvious one that hadn't occurred to me tbh.

MoI is town unless Meransiel is scum.

I think people are ignoring two big points about the rolefishing: a) context and b) subtlety. The former was pro-town and the latter was anti-scum IMO.

So that is that!

I want Hrezs to post more. He made such a big impression on me and this is all he posted:

I am talking about #16 btw.

Also, people, stop crowding pages with this hydra shit, it's useless. Just vote the effer or don't vote the effer.

Squelching discussion?

Vote Mersansiel

Hydra should definately sign its posts. The 'I don't feel like it' attitude needs to go.

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In fact

VOTE: Hrezs

Am not feeling any of the popular wagons. I think Meransiel is town. Am not sure enough about 1 scum in the Neighborhood.

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GUYS a boy is cooking me something so I will catch-up on my games tomorrow. Back from the lake now.

I am sorry for a kind of delinquent start.

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HOWEVER having reviewed sapo in iso s/p affection she is 100% town.

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As discussed - in my opinion he [Meransiel] was using logic unavailable to him without an inside track on the QT.

Link me to prior discussion?

This. Now THIS [thing that MoI did] is blatant chaining lynches. And I'm saying this because I KNOW someone like MoI is not going to get lynched early: If everyone in the neighborhood turns out to be town, this guy must die.

What does MoI's comment have to do with the neighborhood? His argument/assertion was that your wagon had scum...

The link between Yos's quotes and your responses to them are sometimes a little weak.

This [argument that Hydra made re: AGM] is...a pretty decent argument. Brilliant even. I wouldn't expect this from bussing scum.

You think Hydra is bussing AGM...? Or am I wrong to interpret sarcasm there? It's an oddly specific thing not to expect if taken at face value.

I don't understand what you don't like about those three posts of mine at all...it looks like you don't like them because I thought like you and think you're town?

@ Hrezs -- I voted you because I thought your one post was very scummy, and I didn't really have any strong reads elsewhere.

@ PJ -- I think most of the seeds Meransiel noted/planted occurred to me before I read them. It's hard for me to have a scumread on someone who had such a similar set of reactions to the game.

So because I [MoI]don’t agree that Meran was scum rolefishing I’m Town unless he is scum.

Since you are of similar mindset I assume that I can apply to you as well, correct?

IIRC, that logic occurred to me after one of your posts about scum on the Meransiel wagon -- not after anything about Meransiel rolefishing per se. I thought you were shifting the focus of the discussion more aggressively toward attacking Meransiel's attackers than I would have expected from scum pleased with Meransiel's mislynch. This is obviously no longer very impressive if Meransiel flips scum.

I guess you can apply it to me if you think it makes sense, though?

Parama: Townslip, ho!
Meran: Yes, total and obvious townslip!
Thor: Buh? What townslip - explain pl0x.
Parama: Because of what he said in the QT paired with this it makes sense as a townslip.
Thor: Meran, what townslip did you see?
Meran: Oh...that post, um...just that post, totally a town tell.
Thor: I think you're using inside knowledge and are changing your story.
Meran: That wouldn't work unless scum have Daytalk.
Thor:

Did this really happen? I guess this is what you were referring to that I asked about above? EDIT: Oh, yeah. MoI asked the same thing thing and you're answering him... ^^;

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I have a handful of townreads, but I don't have any strong scumreads yet. I'll read along, agree with something someone says re: X being scum, but then not really get a scumvibe when whoever's post came up again. (This happened with AGM most recently.)

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@ Merans -- Looking back, it came from the back-and-forth on page 8. May just be that you quoted him a little liberally idk.

There's not really a deeper point...

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I don't think the rolefishing is a scumtell given the context. That's the gist of it. There may be other legitimately sketchy things (e.g. Hydra's claim that Meransiel just kind of pretended to understand Kondi's towntell), but all the focus on the rolefishing is bad.

Why I think the rolefishing is not a scumtell in this context:

1. In the course of reading the thread, I had the same "I bet their PR status would modulate the likelihood that there is 1 scum" idea that Meransiel expressed immediately subsequent to it occurring to me. I would never have requested CLAIMS at that point, but I think the scenario was set-up such that that being on one's mind was at least consistent with a town PoV.

2. Actually, that is the main reason. I also already had a town feel on Meransiel before that because I thought the Hydra pressure was really dumb, and he was the first one to point out that it was dumb AFAICR.

So the overall theme is that I've identified with his thought process so much that I don't think he's very likely scum. Which is kind of specific to my own personal experience BUT that's the basis of my belief.

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There may be other legitimately sketchy things (e.g. Hydra's claim that Meransiel just kind of pretended to understand Kondi's towntell), but all the focus on the rolefishing is bad.

HEY, I AM DEFENDING MERAN WHILE ADMITTING THERE IS A CASE OUT THERE WITH POSSIBLE MERIT, BUT I WILL AVOID DEBATING/DISCUSSING IT LIKE THE PLAGUE!

I don't really know much about your case apart from what I just summarized above (which I guess is basically accurate?). I don't think you're communicating it very clearly if there's more to it.

There are some people attacking Meransiel for bad reasons and some people doing it for OK reasons (that I didn't personally notice the latter reasons or voices very much as I read through the thread on my own, which is when I developed my reads).

I do not personally think he is scum because his posts matched my own impressions so precisely. I don't think my own introspection is very likely to convince anyone on this point, though, since it's inherently subjective.

I am aware that that results in kind of unfortunate implications regardless of how Meransiel flips, but it's the truth. <_<

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It's scummy because blindly accepting players as nigh-conf town is an action that is odd, especially from someone with enough independence to repudiate the anti-Hydra nonsense early on. So there's a dissonance.

Scum motives are murkier. You can explain it away as a desire to be seen as cooperative, though.

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@ Hydra -- How did he have no way of knowing about it...? It was posted about in-thread....

Did he claim the townslip before it started to be elucidated?

Also, it sounds like you're suggesting that at least one of DH and Parama are scum with Meransiel?

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1. I thought Kondi saying he thought they were masons (plus asking to be lynched, even though the logic there totally makes no sense) WAS the townslip, and those were both public. I guess I'm missing a big piece of the Kondi townslip?

I don't understand how anything from the QT really amplifies the towntell...it just provides context for things that'd already been said...

2. Your last clause ("and then flat one...to defend himself") I agree is a legit scumtell. Do not recall it tbh, but that is scummy to the extent that it is accurate.

3. OK.

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Unvote; Vote: DemonHybrid

Nothing's changed my mind about Hresz, but he's not really playing the game.

Sapo and PBuG on DH gives me good feelings. PBuG's wall gives me good feelings, except for the part where I'm scummy, but I don't blame anyone for being mad that I don't have strong scumreads SO.

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Earworm, my DH vote has nothing (directly) to do with the quote you just listed. Your quote is picked from my catch-up whereas my vote is basically sheeping PBuG. As such, I have not compared DH's vote to Parama's or anyone else's.

The reason I pointed out DH's vote in my catch-up post was probably that I was having very pro-Hydra thoughts around that time. Looking back, I don't think Parama's vote is really much different than DH's; both unvoted Kondi and posted about him while voting Hydra.

My biggest scumread is still on Hrezszs, who is lurking and not going to be lynched by all accounts. I think his few posts are particularly scummy because they basically repeat what others say while passing it off as his own thoughts and show little to no interest in finding scums.

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You're basically asking me to try to remember what was going through my mind when I did my catch-up post, right?

IIRC, Parama gave me good feelings in the first few pages (I remember agreeing with sapo when she said she wanted Parama to be town when she posted, so I'm pretty sure), and DH didn't.

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I think his point is that people normally feel good things about players who vote with them, but earworm feels bad things.

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Sapo sounded like she didn't even know what the implication was, but I thought the implication was clear. That's why I clarified.

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Meransiel thinking his wagon was reasonable and null is crazy.

I am surprised at Hresz's DH vote. It makes me nervous.

Not sure why Shanba doesn't mention DH one way or another.

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I thought your wagon was bad. And any wagon that gets that big on town has scums.

Hresz's behavior has special meaning for me because I suspect him, and I'm reflecting on whoever's question from earlier about Parama v. DH.

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Well, yeah, having reads on a player obviously affects how the posts are interpreted...

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@Iecerint: who else besides DH and Hresz do you suspect and why?

Basically no one. This game has town reads and null reads to me.

I agree with what people are saying about AGM, but then his actual posts end up reading town to me much of the time, so I'm ambivalent.

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I dunno; there are some "scummy" things I'm more shy about as scum, I think.

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I think he's talking about your post where you said that people were discrediting the DH wagon s/p misunderstanding/misrepresenting the basis of the wagon.

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I agree. But I think that's the post he got the slightly-wrong impression from.

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I'm prepared to hammer.

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July 5th

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Stop stalling, then, and do it.

Are you implying that declaring intent to hammer is scummy?

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wat

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Very well.

I am a vigilante. I shot SensFan last night.

I am not a miller or anything similar.

You have already soft-claimed investigative. Why do you think I am scum?

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1. I think inferring that SENSFAN was the mafia kill is crazyworld. <_<

2. I think I've openly said several times that I don't have very strong scumreads this game. I wasn't kidding. And two of my stronger townreads (PBuG, MoI) just died.

3. I killed SF for two basic reasons:

a) Lurking
b) Lots of players expressed suspicion, but it was difficult to get a wagon going on him.

I think those are two of the best reasons to vig someone in the absence of more obvious motivators, so I thought he was a good shot. I actually sent it to Amrun within like an hour of D1 ending IIRC.

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Well, if I'd had actual suspicions of my own to DRAW from, things may've been different.

The only other player I considered shooting was DH, but I didn't think he was as good a vig shot for the inverse of the above two reasons + I think I remember his last few posts being better.

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Yeah. That was. A very questionable play if that's really his role...

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(Both last night AND today.)

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Oh neat. I've never actually played a normal before.

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Gosh, it's like a conf-boring game. You can't even have insane Cops? O_o

Oh well.

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NO OFFENSE, MAFIA GODS.

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Vote: Mastin

I WONDER WHO I SHOULD KILL NOW THO.

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Kinda wish we'd waited to see if DH would claim SK...

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^ Or you are a scum tracker.

Probably unlikely, though, as there was no need to out yourself like that under the present circumstances.

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I had a scum tracker on my scumteam in Kdub's Square Enix Gaiden: Outsiders. I think you were in that with me?

It's also my understanding that normal game site meta is also hedging toward putting "unusual" roles on scum because of a perception that it is wrong that people think that trackers are town or whatever.

THOUGH, like I said, don't think it applies here.

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link'd.

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If there is scum in the Neighborhood, I doubt you'll find them by having them claim it first. Scum will change who performs the kill so that you don't catch them, or scum will disable you.

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As much as I hate to admit it s/p <3, I think saporo's D2 behaviour has been weird. HOWEVER, I was almost certain she was town D1, so.

Mastin, why are you considering Parama over DH? You just really think DH is the SK because of the PBuG kill?

But I think PBuG was obvtown, anyway...so it may've been simpler than that...

Actually, that makes a certain amount of sense, since SK ordinarily targets scummy players the first few days.

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Weird means that I have a particular response to something, then you have a different one such that I begin to think at possible explanations for your different point of view. I am particularly troubled by a different point of view in your case in particular because our reads have been relatively similar this game.

In particular, I'm talking about your move to defend Meransiel at the start of the day. I thought it as unnecessarily robust. O_o

P-edit: I do not see what you see particularly, though I mean I suppose you aren't making it up.

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Unvote

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Well, the Meransiel thing is one example of the "different point of view" angle. My inclination was "let's wait and see where this is going..." Yours was "MUST WITE NITE." This struck me as weird because my own internal analysis saw the latter as unnecessary, so I had to think of other reasons for your being inclined to do it. Your explanation for your behavior matches my own motivations to an extent, though not your behavior per se IMHO (as your behavior was not essential to seeing what he would come up with).

I am not saying that it is strong or enough to erase my D1 read. I am commenting on it because I think it is valid and you have become a subject of interest.

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I mentioned it and termed it "weird" because I think it is legitimate for people to express new suspicion of her today -- I can see where they are coming from -- but it is not necessarily read-changing tier or whatever.

I thought her push on DH and away from Meransiel and Hydra IIRC looked town.

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If a MafiaTracker had tracked me to MoI or PBuG, I could see a reason for him to out me, but not after tracking me to SensFan. I was obviously the vig given two other kills. It would be simpler to keep quiet and kill me more easily the following night IMO.

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People like to post walls in this game.

I wish MBL would just go ahead and post them, too, because I remember reading his walls way back in Wheel Of Time when I first found the site, and I liked them.

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Iecerint--With 3 kills, I'm gonna say at least one of them has to be a vig. He didn't claim to poison anyone, sooo yeah obvtown. I also think his cases have a lot of merit and as such shouldn't be ignored

What? My play this game has been total shit. What cases are you talking about?

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Saporo, yesterday you said you didn't see the Hrezs situation...

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Vote: Parama

. I think that's L-1 or L-2.

I think Parama's behavior can only be interpreted at this point as "he wouldn't go this far as scum"-type antics. He's begging someone to pull this out.

Saporo is also troubling for ignoring Parama while having a bad attack on PJ, and the Hresz situation makes little sense based on her past play. I would be OK with lynching her, too. Also, I think Yos and PJ are probably both town if Saporo is scum.

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Unvote

Presuming saporo put him at L-1.

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Vote: saporovirus

More use here than in Not-voting-land.

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Um. Mastin is confirmed town.

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I agree with you on Yos. I think his attitude toward me is particularly bizarre; it gives the impression that he's missed some pretty salient events this game, even though his wallposts give the impression that he's heavily involved.

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That sentence is about Yos, not you.

Do you still think Meransiel and/or I are likely scum...?

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(I will freely admit that I am not reading this game very carefully, so I really have no idea wrt whether you've amended your reads or not, etc.)

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PJ is pretty town for noticing Mastin's Psychiatrist gambit IMO. I think a player who knows who the scum are would be less likely to go there mentally, though I dunno how common it is for these kinds of rules to be part of playing a Normal game, though.

I guess he could've been SK-hunting, but.

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I did this to organize my thoughts:

Town
Iec
Mastin
Meransiel
MBL
PJ
Hydra
ToastyToast

Hmm
Pine
CTD
Yos
Shanba

Scum
DemonHybrid
saporovirus
Parama

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What exactly about Mastin's recent posting is dumb? Paramascum? DHSK? Combinations?

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His point is that his "new scumhunting improvement" has consisted of wanting to kill Parama, but you have a curious history with Parama, so it's unusual that blindly calling for Parama's death would give you good feelings.

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HMMMMMM ok. 849 was indeed a good post (the post about wiggle words from Yos).

With Yos, I'm ambivalent. I had a townread on him yesterday, but I agree with Meransiel about the strange switch that happened.

With Shanba, I'm indifferent. I haven't had strong feelings about the slot all game.

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I thought you posted something about the rolefishing flip-flop, and then he had a bunch of walls that I didn't read that he claimed explained why doing the exact opposite of what you used to do is normal and not suspicious, etc.?

Well, whatever. I agreed with whoever pointed it out.

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I think saporo is more likely to lurk under the present circumstances as scum.

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Is the votecount correct re: votes for saporovirus?

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Then it looks like either Shanba or myself is votestolen.

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Look at my wagon. It's probably scum-driven.

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I think that was intended to be his answer.

(Bowser is CSL btw.)

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I think saporovirus/KJ is the most likely scum. Sapo would at least give an explanation if she were town. I think she would be more likely to flake like this strategically.

She did flake once as town in a game I played with her : Square Enix V. But that one where she replaced in and found herself in an awkward situation, so maybe it was a little different.

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Oh but I forgot about CSL's replace-in posts...

Yeah, those were bad too.

I'd like to hear from sap's replacement for sure...not familiar with KJ...

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I think most of the players in the game are relatively familiar with one another, but there shouldn't be any references that are too esoteric.

I think the main things to consider upon a readthrough is that Mastin is town, and Meransiel and I are pretty likely to be town.

Read through the game and give us your thoughts, please.

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Ya

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Could just be confirmation bias, but there do seem to be some disproportionate conditional clauses (cf. "As much as I hate buddying") that make me nervous.

It looks like Sapo also replaced out of another large game, and I guess her 3rd year medical school stuff starts next week.

I'm surprised she didn't at least say something, though.

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I pressured iecerint for a wishy washy stance on saporovirus. He took ages to respond and basically only did so when saporo asked him. I'm not too willing to follow this thread up tbh.

When was this? I think I pretty vocally thought saporovirus was town D1...

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Sapo and I are rl friends.

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I'm caught up. Happy with Bowser as the lynch right now.

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Maybe you should claim scum? Then we will kill you and you will not have to read.

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I actually didn't send an action in, mainly because I somehow never noticed that Bowser had flipped and it was night. So I wasn't necessarily blocked.

But you're correct that the absent shot is mine.

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I still don't think Pine or CTD are particularly town, though I see where you're coming from with CTD.

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Agree with your scummy list, though.

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He thinks the mod would poetically want all 3 alignments in the Neighborhood + DH is scummy.

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I think Sapo looks like the most obvscum in the present situation given Paramascum. Can't speak for KJ one way or another.

Have not reread, though.

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That's fair enough. I suppose Pine's town enough that I'm not all over wanting to lynch them in the short term.

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Saporo also called Parama "hopefully town lol" when she first started posting and was kinda awkward when people asked her about it.

I thought it was a towntell at the time because my honest reaction to the early game was similarly "I hope Parama is town lol," but in retrospect...

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In an airport in Chicago. Will probably not be able to make a serious post until tomorrow.

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I slept for 24 hours+ after traveling, then went out with friends and am tired again. 12 hour jetlag hurts.

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Seriously. You don't get to post 4 times in 4 days and then whine there's not enough thread activity. Especially when you still haven't delivered the promised case, and repeatedly use words like "definitely" without knowing how to spell them. (Yes, it's petty, but it really, really annoys me. A typo is fine, spelling it wrong twice in one post is not.)

I do not see how either of these points make sense. Active people are EXACTLY the people who have license to complain about others' activity. I guess you at least recognize that the spelling issue is nothing.

Mastin > I don't see your case on KJ. I literally don't see it. You haven't made one. Care to explain? You also seem to have no reasoning on Shanba. At all. You claim he's defending two people that weren't on your "god-given scum axis" of Yos, Parama, Saporo and Shanba, namely Hydra and Demon. I rather dislike the implications here.. because it reads as mild to moderate cognitive dissonance.

Mastin is confirmed town.

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I have never seen a player use "cognitive dissonance" as an argument other than to state that suspected scum were using it. As such, it reads like you're saying he's scummy -- specifically, that the "implications" that you "rather dislike" seem like CD. What other implications would you be concerned about?

(NB: I have no idea even who you have replaced and am behind this game, but that post looked crazy to me.)

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CD, as used on this site, just means inconsistency between stated feelings and behavior. For example, if someone wants to lynch someone but then votes someone else, that could be a CD situation.

I have not made any shot claims.

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I do not know why that information would be useful to town.

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I could see DX as scum becoming bold after some people expressed confidence in his direction so far (IIRC @ the last, at least). I have never played in a game where town who had actually taken the time to reflect on all the angles (as DX appears to have done) came to the conclusion that elaborating a vig claim was a good idea.

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Town, by and large, do not care how many more shots I have. They probably trust me to make my shots in a reasonably pro-town fashion, unless they just think I'm a really awful player. Protective roles at least know I'm town, which is fair enough basis for protection on its own regardless of shots I may have.

Scum want to know how many shots I have to determine whether I'm good for killing (e.g. because, even though I'm pretty much confirmed town and a decent shot anyway, I'm also relatively inactive and hence perhaps a delayed kill might be OK, etc).

So the reason is that the benefits are marginal or absent (depending upon how much you think I am incompetent) and the costs are marginal to high.

The flaw in your logic (in the sense, why I think it's scummy beyond the circumstantial stuff in the previous post) is that talking points like town needing to "gain information" on the grounds that scum are the "informed majority" are used out-of-context (e.g. scum aren't informed vis a vie the details of my ability).

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I don't think Parama was really all that doomed. I was OK with seeing him go, but I could've easily been swayed in a number of different directions. Re: "would Shanba bus in this fashion."

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@ DX -- No, I'm pretty much confirmed town -- at least as much as is reasonable. I'm only possible scum if there are 2 SKs or the scum had an extra "shot"-flavored kill. Those possibilities are remote.

To the extent that I'm not confirmed, additional information about shots will not alter my confirmation status, either, so your points about me not being confirmed are irrelevant to whether I should claim more details.

Protective roles do not need my permission to protect Mastin or whomever they so choose.

@ Hydra -- Eh?

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Ah.

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I think CTD's 1178 is very good, and one of the most worth-reading wallposts on MS in recent memory. I do think that a little bit of the SK-focus-ergo-scum argument against KJ is a stretch (for reasons KJ has already responded with -- someone else brought the SK spec into the picture first), but the "if I flip group scum/town" quote is indeed a fairly unusual statement from town.

Slightly weird diction when describing KJ's D2 play, though ("this could just be a pro-town player").

Vote: KillerJester

I don't feel too strongly one way or another, and this makes the VC better reflect that ++

deadline in 2 days

.

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One saporo moment that seems town to me (that CTD quoted, no less) was the big where she said "DH has been messing w/ my scumread on him lately." This towntell is voided if other players voiced similar content before that.

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ROGER

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Which raises serious questions about CTD and Iece.

?

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Also, Ythan was bored and replaced out as Cop, and there were lots of flakers on a slot that had a guilty on someone N1.

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Oh. Maybe I'm confusing it with something else.

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Another thing is that I was confirmed vig via Meransiel D2...all the more reason to claim earlier...

We should only lynch Yos if he is probscum with both Xanatos and MBL.

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Someone speculated about a scum rolecop as the other scum.

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Yes, I shot Shanba.

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MBL's post makes sense except that Xan didn't (ultimately, at least) claim Cop, but gunsmith. This warps his "cop with a guilty" comments a bit. Still, I think Xan is the more likely scum.

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If you are town, the loss is on bizarre behavior from your slot relative to your claim.

I'd say the only doubt I have is the WIFOM angle about your slot's play being bad as either alignment given your recent claim.

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Meransiel was a tracker.

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I don't know. If he was lying, I don't get why he didn't just claim cop; the whole "claim cop to get MBL to claim with the intent of saying you're a gunsmith after he claims" doesn't really make any sense to me if he's lying scum.

Actually, this part makes MORE sense if he's lying scum, not less. Recognizing from reactions that his claim was wildly out of bounds with his slot's play, it makes sense to amend your information down a notch accordingly to address by implication such discrepancies. It just doesn't work very well here because I was already out by very early D2, so you have to posit that Earworm or Pine thought there was a niche set-up (maybe not allowed in Normal games?) or were not paying attention.

The more sensible town Gunsmith play is to either:

a) Fakeclaim Cop for gravitas since you know your result is basically Cop-tier cuz the SK is dead and the vig is out (if very ballsy)
b) Claim Gunsmith and make the argument about verbally

Switching around is unnecessary and speaks to wanting to modulate how his claimed role fits his predecessors' play.

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Well, not really. If you're a gunsmith, and you find a gun on someone, you ideally want them to claim before you do, otherwise they'll just claim some role with a gun after you claim. If you can get them to claim vanilla first, and THEN you claim you saw a gun on them, you get more information because you've now caught them in a lie. I've seen gunsmiths try to do this in any number of ways; call for a mass claim, try to just flat out wagon a person to a claim, ect. I've never seen "fakeclaim cop, demand a claim, then tell the truth about your role after they claim", but it makes sense as a gunsmith gambit.

I do not understand what this has to do with the present situation. DX's predecessors did not do the rational gunsmith behaviors that you specify. This is part of why I am skeptical of DX's claims. Also, it is too abstract for the present situation, because no scum could fakeclaim vig by D2 because Meransiel had already outed me as the vig. The only way hypo-MBL-scum could hide would be if he gambited that the set-up had LOTS of vigs, or if we suppose that pine kept quiet because he speculated the same. Hence, even if you have some kind of point I'm not understanding in the fakeclaim-cop gambit talk, the utility was pretty marginal because the vig was already out.

From a DX-scum PoV, what happened is that he claimed Cop, but then noticed that he couldn't rationalize earworm/pine's play AT ALL if they'd known 100% that MBL was scum all game. So he had to switch to a more plausible story afterwards (Cop -> Gunsmith). Of course, this doesn't work to well, either, because of the detail that I was already the outed vig by very early D2. So you have to postulate 2 instances of poor play, basically, but I don't think either is particularly far-fetched -- when I'm scum, I notice that lots of silly scumfriends say "claim cop" blatantly as a piece of advice, and DX replaced in long after D2, so I could see him forgetting about details of what happened before he joined the game when he adjusted his claim.

And this is before we have to explain people lurking to replacement in a slot that has a guilty on someone. <_<

Also, if he was going to fake a guilty, why not just say that he got the guilty last night?

None of this makes any sense as a scum gambit. Scum gambits tend to be neat and simple. This kind of messy combobulation usually means that what you've got is a pro-town person telling the truth (and making some poor decisions).

THIS is the argument I think is somewhat valid (the WIFOM angle I mentioned in an earlier post). However, the fact that it makes little sense as a scum gambit does not necessarily mean that the probability of the scum gambit is lower than the probability of it being poor town play. Both of these are low-probability events.

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I am aware that you have explanations for some of the discrepancies, yes.

Having just Search'd both Pine and earworm, it's true that both of them flaked off the entire site. Though, I mean. Flaking from all my games when I've got a guilty result on someone in one of them is still a weird thing, unless they died/lost their internets or something. <_<

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Also, I'd think they'd block Meransiel and kill Mastin-Iece N2. Though I guess it's possible that they blocked me N2 and I was just ignorant of it s/p not shooting.

If so, we might be able to look for spooky responses after I claimed not having shot N2; their existence would be consistent with a RBer being out there, consistent with DX's claims.

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I believe so, yes. My recollection is that:

1. Meransiel was nigh-confirmed D2, cuz he tracked me to SensFan.
2. I was nigh-confirmed D2, cuz I killed a scummy townie and the SK had a different flavor.
3. Mastin was mod-confirmed D2, because he did a silly gambit to out the SK, but it backfired and then he had to confirm himself.

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How does Gunsmith "fit my predecessors play"?

Flavor cops have a harder time interpreting their results than normal Cops. Hence, downgrading your results to flavor cop results can justify prior slot-holders not moving on the guilty result.

Doesn't work here because the presumed-only town gun-holder was outed early D2.

It is possible that misunderstanding the normal rules may have led to flavor miller or insanity caution (I mean, we have to posit poor play either way, so...).

P-Edit: How did you learn that you were roleblocked?

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I think it is probably true that you did not know the details of the rules regardless of your alignment. I've been here for some time, and I frankly didn't know many of the specific rules, either. I mainly play Theme games.

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I bet some kind of DX/mod correspondence happened, but I am not certain of the character of it. That's what I do when I'm scum like that, at least.

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It's not unreasonable that he would assume that faking mod correspondence might be against the rules, too. It's a common rule in general.

I bet he got confirmation on whether he could do it regardless given the prior warning. Irrelevant with regard to his alignment AFAICT.

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I fake mod correspondence as scum all the time. Banning it nerfs fakeclaiming too aggessively IMPO.

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I think Xanatos has focused mostly on reasons why he himself is not scum. The focus did not shift to making cases on MBL until after people told him to do it. It's not clear to me that he'd necessarily have a strong MBL-scum narrative even as town, since he replaced in late (i.e. unlike most guilty claim cases, here DX wasn't the one who initially suspected and targeted MBL).

I did get mild town feelings during my back-and-forth with DX. I still think DX is pretty scummy, and MBL is more townie for several reasons, but the fact that DX is the high-risk lynch makes it annoying.

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I do not understand your question/point...I know I personally had assumed that the SK was the poisoner from the time of the first flip on D2...?

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OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH I see.

Good point.

OK, that starts to make it too big of a conspiracy. Officially leaning MBL-lynch, even though he was a big townread.

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Why did you need to read up on something, though?

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Seriously, that's a really really strong kill-flavor-focused-roletell, or a long-range conspiracy, or a very fortunate result of post-mining on DX's part, roughly from most to least likely.

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The point/claim is that DX is a gunsmith who cannot catch the SK because the SK does not use guns. The fact that DX's behavior fit this PoV even on D3 implies that a hypothetical Gunsmith fakeclaim conspiracy would have to go back to D3; it's not something new DX just made-up after a Cop fakeclaim fell through, for example.

Alternate possibilities:
1. There really WAS such an elaborate conspiracy. Unlikely, cuz he didn't bring it up for a long time.
2. DX really meant something else when he posted that, and it just appears to be consistent with a Gunsmith having an A-Ha moment. Possible, but I can't imagine what it would've been.

P-edit: Correct.

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DH, what do you think about DX's iso 14?

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I triple-posted about it.

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I could see Yos either way. I certainly feel far too ambivalent to take him over MBL.

I am probably prepared to hammer MBL.

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The probability of such a combination is near zero, and IS zero given that this is a Normal game. Parama flipped Mafia Neighbor. Hence, the Neighbor construct is real and at least one Neighbor is town.

I do not know if Hydra was actually arguing as much though. Then again, it's not clear what that entire passage was arguing, other than that maybe we shouldn't hammer because the game might end.

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That was @ the former.

Hydra's new post is silly for new reasons: namely that lynching MBL is ftw if he is scum, even if he is scum with DX.

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I agree that your play was townie; what convinced me was DX's early crumb.

I suppose we'll see.

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I don't know who the 3rd scum would be with DX and Yos if they were 2 of 3 remaining scum...unless Toast's slot is scum. And it's been gg for a long time if that's the case.

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Yeah, that's why I ruled you out, too...

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I did not shoot last night.

I figure it's OK to come clean about it now that the Roleblocker has flipped. I'm a 2-shot vig. I have no more shots.

I think it's crazyworld that CTD would protect me over DX when the roleblocker flipped, but w/e.

I'm visiting relatives, so I'm V/LA this weekend. Should still be able to post once or twice.

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And yeah, DX bussing obvtown MBL-the-PR doesn't make any sense at all. There were surely simpler ways to win.

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I wanted to draw the RB yesterday given that it existed (I don't have any other use), so I didn't claim yesterday. The fact that MBL flipped RBer in hindsight means claiming would've been better, but ye know.

The Godfather point is reasonable given the Italian-y Opera-y flavor, but then I play too many Theme games.

My inclination is to lynch Hydra. I think Yos could easily have gotten DX mislynched yesterday.

But it's not ready yet, obviously. And DX convinced me yesterday.

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DX = David Xanatos
DH = DemonHybrid

I think you are confusing them?

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Frankly, Yos, the thought had occurred to me before he pointed it out. The utility of the post is kind of null other than to express nice things about me, which is not particularly productive, etc.

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I'm basically confirmed town; I do not expect people to believe otherwise. I interpreted your post in that light.

I still want to lynch Hydra, because Yos could've lynched DX yesterday around the doctor if he'd wanted to.

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The difference is that everyone thought that Parama was scum, and no one thought that MBL was scum, so you don't get as many unique points for Parama, and Yos gets more for MBL.

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I was leaning toward lynching DX most of the day, too, until he pointed out crumbs. One missing vote could easily have come from me.

It's true that Yos would have been vulnerable, especially if they didn't know how many shots I had left (they probably did know, though, since they knew to block DX).

I'll wait for your post.

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I don't think CTD would have counter-claimed doc like that. Even if they knew KJ was lying because of a rolecop, it would just set him up for CC by the real doc.

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I am prepared to put Hydra at L-1. I am giving CTD and TT a chance to protest or request time.

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I do agree with some of the things you've said against Yos, to be honest (and I agreed with a lot of what MBL said about DX), but the recent Yos post about mis-perceiving that you were a bulletproof godfather is an impressive fiction if it is one. So that's the recent event that pushed me over the edge.

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It's the same basic logic that made me change my mind about DX yesterday (earlier crumbs consistent with the town PoV).

The theory makes plenty of sense. It makes sense that I would shoot someone and that the failure of my shot given the flipped roleblocker would have been caused by something, and the GF hadn't flipped yet.

You were my main suspect going into today, too, so I don't think him attacking you is particularly surprising (regardless of his alignment). Toast and CTD are town or deserve the scumwin (apologies to Yos re: CTD); DH is kinda iffy and a possible spoiler, but site meta says not scum; which leaves you two, and Yos contributed to yesterday working correctly.

The only normal scum lynch this game -- Parama's -- was pretty unavoidable when it happened, and you can't claim credit for MBL, so "I am pro-town"-type arguments don't do much to convince me of anything.

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Yos, I actually think your COMMENT ON OTHERS HYDRA insistence has been a bit scummy. If there's only one scum left, then postulating lots of secondary or tertiary solitary suspects can only have the effect of alienating him OR confusing those of us deliberating.

You can flip this around and say that Hydra isn't talking about us to AVOID alienating us, which is also scummy, but your insistence that he implicate others doesn't do much for me...

Just sayin.

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I think Hydra is scum, Toast thinks Yos is scum.

I think Yos has done a handful of rhetorically sneaky things, but not enough for me to lynch him over Hydra.

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Yos posited a bulletproof godfather because I didn't kill anyone successfully. In reality, I was just out of shots. I think this is probably town points for Yos -- THOUGH come to think of it it does ignore the evidence we have that a rolecop should be the last slot...

CTD claimed to have protected me. Which was /fail.

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Vote: Hydra

L-1

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Waiting to hear CTD and Yos's opinions.

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That sounds plausible. I'm impressed with the doc claim to lynch the SK. That was very risky. Happy I was right about Hresz in such a case.

I'll let CTD respond.

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The main fact that appears to be in contention is contextualizing CTD putting all the scum on top of his town list, right?

Yos, do you still thinking the posting situation implicates CTD from a neutral PoV?

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I agree that that is most plausible. However, CTD made specific claims re: why you could also be a possible scumfriend on DX day. Are you saying those claims are a priori bunk?

(I have not yet checked myself, so this is just an information-gathering expedition.)

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5. Anyone who has spent as much time theorizing about mafia as Yos has knows that a Vig is infinitely more powerful than a gunsmith, particularly in endgame. Why then does he seem to think that I should have protected Xanatos instead of Iece? Because he knows that he was going to get investigated while Hydra was getting lynched and that would have been game over right there. I didn't know that, as I felt an investigation immunity among the scum was likely. Not that as scum, I would have had a theoretical chance to get Xanatos or one of the neighbors lynched if I had killed Iece that night. You can argue with a gunsmith, you can't argue with a vig.

It seems like the second part of this point already justifies why the former is wrong? A gunsmith investigation on either you or CTD would have ended the game, and with the roleblocker dead, there was nothing to stop DX doing it successfully. This is equally bad for either of you (if scum). The only way out is it the last scum is a Godfather, but the rolecop spec from DX being blocked implied that the remaining role was rolecop rather than GF...

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The scum rolecop theory is an old theory. People mentioned it when DX claimed having been blocked even though his slot had been replaced a million times. Replaced-a-million-times slots are more likely to be VT given that they are town, so DX was a weird block target, and weird block targets can warrant interpretation.

I'd actually forgotten about the rolecop angle re: the SK counter-claim -- that is not what I was alluding to. I think your point that it is a stretch that CTDrolecop could feel secure enough to CC is valid.

Yos lying re: his interactions with Hydra, or what're you referring to?

New topic: DH's kill was a bit weird. Did he have different feelings about these players? I feel like WIFOM-y nightkills are rare in site meta these days.

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I called you nigh-confirmed earlier, but I'd expressed ambivalence about Yos. I think that alone is enough to justify keeping me alive. I don't recall what DX said about you two, though.

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If you're the scum, it's not irrelevant, especially if you're the rolecop. Then you'd potentially know about my shoot status and want to keep players who thought you were town in the game.

This is part of why I want a review of DH's opinions. Depending upon what they were re: CTD and Yos, we can interpret whether reads on Yos/CTD could plausibly have been part of it, especially since DH wasn't necessarily an obvious "confirmed" player.

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That 2nd and maybe 3rd one read slightly scummy to me. The others don't, really.

1 is a reasonable conclusion someone could draw by looking at how things went D5; it wouldn't necessarily make sense for a town player to go an extra step and bother with posting times and such, I don't think.

4 and 5 are errors rather than lies, and not errors likely to ingratiate anyone to him. I don't see the scum motivations, particularly.

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Your rolename does mention your amount of shots, yes? Just to get that out of the way.

It does. It lists that I am a two-shot vigilante specifically.

Why is that, by the way?

If he is a rolecop, then he probably knew the SK was lying. In fact, if you look at his posts, it matches the pattern of him being a scum rolecop who had investigated the SK; he was trying to lynch the SK all day, even before the doc claim.

Revision: What CTD says is true, and it is relevant to the extent that it matches reality. CTD's point was that scum who know a player is an SK would not sit around and wait before going after him. Your claim that he went after him early (i.e. that he did NOT wait) would not change the internal validity of his argument, but it would nullify its external validity/relevance.

Thanks for the point about DH's view.

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There is nothing ambiguous about my counterclaim. The term "counterclaim" is pretty clearly defined, and if someone is claiming for reasons that aren't "he claimed my role", it is expected of him to elaborate immediately.

It's valid for a Cop to stay hidden unless absolutely necessary IMPO.

Thanks for the DH facts.

EBWOP: I'm not agreeing that they're lies; only that I can see scum motivations. I had already expressed support for your version of things when you made those posts, and the main function of those posts is to reinforce that universe.

Town could also make those posts, yes. I don't think they're particularly damning.

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What can we say about whether a doc PR in the set-up is even plausible? Currently it's:

VT x 5
Alien x 1
Tracker x 1
Innocent Child x1
Gunsmith x 1
Neighbor x 2 (Assuming ToastTown)
Vig x 1

Also WHAT apparently an Alien is a jailkeeper...?!? O.o

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Oh, jailkeeper + can't hit them with trackers and gunsmiths.

Still, I mean...

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I think lots of information roles -- gunsmith + tracker + IC -- is ALONE enough to rule out a doctor. The fact that there's ALSO a jailkeeper makes doctor crazy AFAICT. O.o

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Not to mention Neighbors, who're weak information folk.

Did DH say anything that in the QT, Toast?

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Is it normal to give town that much power? I don't really know what's normative in Normal games; this is the first one I've played.

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Whether the set-up is balanced is less important than whether it is normative. Games in New York are tightly-regulated. I'm just not personally aware of the ramifications.

I think CTD and Yos have both questionably used questions of balance inappropriately in the last several posts.

Whatever validity can be attributed to CTD's criticisms of the possibility of a rolecop being in the game, it being "pulled out of a thin air" does not contribute to it.

Neither of you are making this very easy for me. <_<

Toast, is it also your own personal feeling that lynching Yos is the only way to go?

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I'll read the game this weekend and come to a decision. It's hard to find enough free time during the week. <_<

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Having looked just at Hrezs in iso, I'm about ready to vote CTD. He has an EXTREME fixation on MBL and Hydra, but he never attacks either of them, and he instead votes other-neighbor DemonHybrid for the usual reasons. His fixation is based on describing questionable things both hypo-buddies do, and then describing them as "anti-town." In spite of this, he somehow lists MBL as his second-scum tier (after DH), even though he only singles out MBL for "asking questions," which is not prima facie scum behavior. This looks to me like bungled distancing from MBL and a misplaced desire to coach both scumfriends.

He also has this really cheeky line:

Every time I go to read this game my brain fries....

I get a very moi vs the game feeling. Not really sure what this means, but it's something I'm taking note of.

Of which the main motivation I can gather is to generate WIFOM on it, so I'm leaning scum on it.

Now I will read CTD and Yos.

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Confirmation bias could be going HARDCORE at this point, but I am reading scum motivations into almost every CTD post. The one that motivated me to stop reading and blog about it was this one:

I'm glad the Bowser[=Parama] lynch went through. Seeing as I don't agree with Mastin2 on DH (he struck me as group scum, not SK), and I don't find two scum-neighbors very likely at all, it looks like I was on the wrong track yesterday.

Hydra: Your NK-speculation is useless bordering on dangerous. I'd greatly appreciate us not going down that road any further.

Killerjester has all but confirmed himself as scum of some flavor with his posts today. He has a serious hard-on for the SK, virtually all his thinking seems to center around that role. This is a very reliable scumtell in my book. Either he's group scum who spent all night SK-hunting or he's the SK himself. Most amusing is that he got SK-vibes off of DH for not SK-hunting, which is about the clearest possible indicator that he does not have the mindset of a pro-town player.

Either way I want him gone.

vote: killerjester

This is CTD's first post of the day in which KJ was lynched. In other words, there is no evidence of an intentional delay in coming out with information as per CTD's suggestion. Earlier today, CTD pointed out that a rolecop with SK information would not have sat on the information before counter-claiming. This is in fact basically exactly what CTD did -- he came out immediately using hyperbolic-if-he's-just-a-doctor "all but confirmed" language that was probably designed to set-up a possible investigative claim down the line if it ended up that the Tracker was the only such town role (which would be quite plausible if the scum had a rolecop IMO). I think Yos was correct on this point earlier.

Note also CTD calling out Hydra for "dangerous, useless" play here, but being convinced he was town down the line.

I think CTD misrepresented his own play D3, so I'm basically convinced he's the one, especially given Hrezs's play, the structure of his replace-in posts, and the players CTD has targeted all game.

I'm going to read Yos, too, just to see if I also confirmation-bias his iso everywhere.

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Hresz is even WORSE, if it's possible, when you know that Hydra and MBL are the scumbuddies.

Yos is tomorrow.

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Yos's iso doesn't do a lot for me tbh. So fuck.

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Toasty, did you come to any conclusions?

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Yosarian has less connections to the scum team is the main thing I got from skimming.
I just find his posts to be very long-winded...in the way where it looks like someone trying too hard to look good.

I agree with this.

Hrezs was my first vote. Really, the only thing that stopped me from lynching CTD was the doctor CC.

Mine, too.

Agree with the second bit, also. Though the fact I noticed he went for KJ aggressively D3 from his very first post makes this worry me less.

Also, having a doc in a setup like this would be ordinary. The fact that he counterclaimed a SK, and not another scum-member, seems an odd play (if we look at him as scum).

Well, he didn't claim it until it looked like KJ wasn't going to be lynched. At first, he just breadcrumbed some investigative results on KJ and pushed. He didn't counter-claim until it looked like people'd believe the doc claim.

The Town Alien might've been our "doc."

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2. You commended me at the time for a huge wall post I made against KJ. Why the hell would I have bothered with that if I was just waiting to spring an investigation on him.

If you were scum, you would probably want to lynch him without claiming because you would put yourself into a probable 1/1 with any other town investigative roles still out there (in this game, it would've put you in one with DX).

[Iecerint]

You completely lost me. Why would I not want to get into a 1/1 with any other town investigative roles when I am holding 100% provable information in hand? And why would I want to lynch him without claiming when that would completely invalidate any kind of edge such an investigation would give? Claim the next day that "oh by the way, I had a guilty on him, lulz"?

Because claiming when it's unnecessary is unnecessary. This part would apply whether you were a town Cop or scum who wanted to claim it.

Later on, you would say "oh by the way, i had a guilty on him, that is why I used "confirmation" language like that to crumb."

And which one is it now, did I breadcrumb an investigation result because it looked plausible to me that tracker was the only investigative town role or did I fear running into another investigative role and therefore put several hours into "one of the most worth-reading wallposts on MS in recent memory"?

1. Anyone can make readable posts. That doesn't make you town.
2. When I am scum, I do such things to cover my bases.

I will grant that your incredulity (here and earlier) appears genuine, though....

Deadline is tomorrow. I am inclined to No Lynch.

P-Edit: As a doc, I don't think I would not have claimed that someone unconfirmed was "all but confirmed" (hence my taking issue with your hyperbolic language, which I interpret as a breadcrumb, and you insist is par for the course) or actively take such a dramatic stance. This is part of what bothered me about that post.

[Iecerint]

Iecerint, please ask yourself how you would play as a scum rolecop with a result on the SK and then contrast it with my play. ALL of my D3 posts, not just the first.

I suppose I would try to lynch the SK, ideally without having to claim.

THOUGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH now that you mention it, you probably wouldn't have implied that you were the doc with your last posts. It's true that it's BETTER play (since no one but Shanba was likely to be the doctor, and another investigative town role was plausible), but not that it's what would naturally occur to a rolecop scum, I think...

So that is something.

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It looks like lack of a majority will solidify NL.

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I suppose the first could be relevant if scum were concerned about my vig shot, but only in such a case. They could always avoid the lynch by claiming and alluding to crumbs, so it makes more sense to match normative Town Cop play. I acknowledge that bad players might not think about this very carefully, but I don't think this would necessarily apply to you.

If I were a Cop with a guilty, I would play less close to my chest, but there's no reason to stick your neck out as the doctor. This is sort of normative AFAIK.

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Those are decent points.

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That sounds OK. Toasty is probably not scum, but it's a back-of-my-head possibility that he's just waiting for me to vote of you, so letting him die addresses these niche issues.

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AND THEY LIVED HAPPILY EVER AFTER.

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I think Toasty would be the harder one to convince, because he probably feels more personally responsible to DH, who wanted to lynch Yos.

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If only I could find nice towntells in your early play.

As it stands, I think CTD is the scum, but I'd feel EXTREEEEMELY bad about it if DH went to the grave cursing you.

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I agree that Yos probably should not have specified a protection target yesterday. The point of NL with 4 present is that you want someone to die.

I think the play last night was a good one regardless of who was scum.

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Reasonable people (well, town people, at least) have believed that I could be scum with an extra shot, though. So your proposed scenario may not apply, though I personally agree with your implicit thesis that I'm pretty much confirmed.

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Toast death => Yos scum
Toast live => CTD scum

The reason is that TT showed a strong desire not to disappoint DH yesterday, which I think overwhelms the WIFOM implications. But the WIFOM is still there, of course.

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I don't think that argument appeals to a Yos/CTD-blind party very well. Namely, CTD could have agreed to protect me without much fuss just because he's town and wanted to protect me, which is consistent with his past protects (as you voice).

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I see what you mean. That actually makes sense.

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I've acknowledged that both of you have made good points. That doesn't mean that each acknowledgement represents a 180 in terms of my overall impressions.

I really don't get what you're trying to claim my motives are here. If you're trying to argue that I was scum who decided to not nightkill for whatever reason, then why would I have cared who you "protected"?

It could be that you thought doing as much would solidify a Yos-allegiance feeling on my part.

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TOASTY CAN WE LYNCH CTD AND THEN BLAME ME?

IS THE GHOST OF DH HAUNTING YOU?

WHO DO YOU PERSONALLY THINK IS SCUMMEH?

DID YOU LEARN FASCINATING FACTS FROM REREADING EARLIER?

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I didn't claim I had no shots left because the Roleblocker wasn't known to be MBL yet, so I thought I could draw the roleblock. I'd do it again.

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But it doesn't wash the sour taste out of my mouth of feeling hung out to dry that night.

Reading phrases like this makes me think CTD is town all over again. <_<

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OK, I just read over D5 again. At the time, I had assumed that there had only been 1 scum left, but there were actually 2, and 3 the day before that.

For some reason, this convinced me that CTD was scum, but I forgot why.

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The only weird thing to me about CTD scum is Hydra's post 1449. This doesn't seem like a good post to make after one partner has just declared intent to lynch the other one...

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OH nevermind. I thought that was a post about lynching DX, but it's the weird thing where Hydra decides to push a Yos lynch on the grounds that he could be scum with either party...

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Notes on looking over the VCs:

1. Hydra joins Yos on AGM wagon after Meransiel wagon dies down. CTD goes to DH's wagon, which is otherwise scum-free @ 5.

2. Yos votes with Hydra on Parama the following day. CTD on DH again.

3. MBL *also* joins Parama's wagon, such that 60% of the D2 Parama buswagon is scum. They stay there the entire time.

4. CTD follows Hydra on KJ with his potential breadcrumbing post (D3). MBL and Yos aren't voting.

5. When Yos finally votes, he votes CTD (which is cross-alignment, anyway, but he could've joined either Shanba (which didn't have any scum yet and was @ 4 votes) or KJ (to support dumbtownCTD and Hydra) in lieu of that.

Looking at the votepost itself, he does FoS: Shanba at the same time, which keeps this from being the glorious towntell I hoped it would be...

6. Yos ultimately shifts to lynch KJ, joining Hydra (and CTD).

D4

7. Hydra's plan against Yos was EARLIER than I noticed before. It figures into the very first VC on D4 and is just after DX posts his plan.

8. Yosarian and Hydra had a nice window to lynch DX on August 9th, as prior discussed. Ima confirm things...

CTD adds the 3/5 vote at 4:22 AM.
DH unvotes, making it 2/5 and no longer in quicklynch territory, at 8:52 PM.

If Yos is scum with the Hydra, they are very disorganized. That's a 16 hour window.

LUDI did not post on-site at all during that window.
HYDRA did not post on-site at all during that window.
I can't find THOR onsite anywhere...did he remove his account somehow...?
I can't find YOSARIAN's information, either, so I guess Search literally just crashed.

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Basically, I am trapped in confirmation bias like hell, or CTD looks like the last scum -- hypo-doctor gambits and some unattractively Igor-like behavior from Yos notwithstanding.

I am inclined to go ahead and vote.

Vote: CTD

Toast, please review stuff a little before you hammer. I'd hate to lose because I missed something after almost a month of stalemate. <_<

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One point that bothers me about Yos being possible scum is that MBL went on over and over about pushing correct reads on 3/3 scum (sapo, Parama, Yos). This reads almost like it comes from a desire to point at the mega-bus after the fact.

However, the fact that Yos was under a lot of suspicion for thinking that iffy town players like Shanba were town also justifies him putting suspicion on townYos, so it still works both ways.