NY Mafia 155 - New Age Mafia II - Game Over!

MichelSableheart · Post Post #937 (isolation #0) » Tue Aug 21, 2012 6:07 am

Unvote

I have read along since the game started, so I have a rough idea of the major events in the game. As a spectator, it's difficult to form opinions though, since you're not nearly as invested in the game. I'll need some time to reread to form opinions.

@scooby: vanilla townie, as Simenon claimed during the massclaim.

MichelSableheart · Post Post #948 (isolation #1) » Tue Aug 21, 2012 7:39 am

Scooby wrote:Michael, did you or did you not isolate Simenon before writing that post?

Knowing that there had been a massclaim, I ISO'd Simenon for his claim immediately after receiving the replacement request (so before receiving my role).

Spoiler: claims

Bella, Agar, Tierce and Hoopla are town. Bella obv, Agar because scum don't need extra killing powers, Tierce and hoopla because even if either bv or Quagmire is mafia, a false negative is too risky to fake after losing 2 mafiosi.
Scooby is not cleared, but with a roleblock on him night 1, I don't really like the idea of going after him now. How strong are the arguments against him, exactly?
Rhinox hesitancy about claiming his ability seemed genuine, and it seems to complicated to use as a fakeclaim. Scum Rhinox would probably simply have claimed neighbour.
Staeg blocking Tierce was a dumb move, but I have to agree with Tierce that if he is faking, his buddies would have talked him out of claiming tierce N2.

I'm not liking any of the major bandwagons at the moment. Personal preference would probably be a redFF lynch, because I don't understand why he's going after Agar, who at least has a confirmed ability.

MichelSableheart · Post Post #965 (isolation #2) » Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:19 am

I would like redFF to explain why he voted agar at the beginning of day 3, and why he preferred Rhinox over scooby. Given his play thus far, it's unlikely that that explanation will come though.

I skimmed over the nhammen and singer wagons day 1 again, but didn't get any scumreads from it. There wasn't anyone who obviously was avoiding both wagons. I expect that scum would have tried to keep the two wagons even, in the hope of clearing one of them "because it was an alternative to a mafia lynch". the only votes that fit that description are hoopla's and flameaxe', and hoopla is almost certainly town.

Planning to look at day 3 before voting. As said before, I'm not liking any of the major bandwagons at the moment.

MichelSableheart · Post Post #969 (isolation #3) » Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:24 am

I've redone the coloring for you.

In post 905, scooby wrote:I just want people to tell me two thinbgs:

umoms: 8 (
Staeg
,
iamausername
,
Rhinox
,
nhammen
,
redFF
,
Quilford
, Glork,
Tierce
)

Who is the scujm here?

singersigner: 6 (JDodge,
nhammen
,
Staeg
,
Flameaxe
,
Simenon
, bv310)
nhammen: 6 (
Primate
,
iamausername
,
Rhinox
,
redFF
,
singersigner
,
Quilford
)

Bonus question, who is the scum bussing for town cred?

Though I'm extremely curious why you picked these vote counts especially, and where your coloring of redFF, jdodge and bv310 is coming from.

MichelSableheart · Post Post #995 (isolation #4) » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:10 pm

@Glork: I don't think Scooby not voting either singer or nhammen for such a long time yesterday is suspicious, really. During the period where both bandwagons developped, he only posted prod dodges. This behaviour completely matches his activity on the rest of the site during that time. Honest inactivity is a far more logical explanation then avoiding the thread in the hope the bandwagons would go away.

I have now quickly read through day 3, and was really impressed by a post from Hoopla. She mentioned that our main priority should be to just cycle through the suspects, rather then try to find the perfect lynch each day, and she's probably right about that.

I'm not going to vote Rhinox, because I feel it is extremely unlikely that he would try to pull a fakeclaim like that as scum. If Rhinox was mafia, he would have fakeclaimed either pure neighbour or bulletproof neighbour, as those are far more easy to come up with and more likely to be believed then bulletproof to mafia. His statement that he was trying to draw the nightkill is a likely explanation for his antics during massclaim. Overall, his behaviour to me makes more sense if he actually is what he claims to be.

My read on Scooby isn't nearly as strong. Even though we have a claimed roleblock on him night 1, that doesn't clear him. In his behaviour, I haven't really seen anything that points to him being town. To be fair, I haven't really seen anything that points to him being scum either, but with a number of townreads, there isn't much wrong with simply lynching those who can't be cleared by process of elimination. Since he is the most likely scum out of the current bandwagons, I will

Vote: Scooby

He is not my preferred lynch for today, though. If I could choose, I would like to lynch redFF instead. His contribution to the game has been virtually nonexistant. His attack on Agar is unlikely to come from someone who's trying to discover who's mafia (as a confirmed killer, Agar doesn't fit the mafia profile). His preference of Rhinox over Scooby was unexplained, and came at a time when Rhinox wasn't even a real wagon yet. In all, his behaviour seems that of someone who simply doesn't care, but doesn't want someone else to have to go through the trouble of replacing him. In the current gamestate, that behaviour is more likely to come from mafia then from town. I'm not going to vote him however, because I fear that this close to deadline, my striving for the perfect lynch might actually result in either a no lynch or a lynch of Rhinox, a townread of mine.

MichelSableheart · Post Post #1010 (isolation #5) » Fri Aug 24, 2012 8:08 pm

If there is an SK, we'll see multiple kills eventually, we don't need to lynch Rhinox for that. But even with only the claimed roles, a mafia-only bulletproof makes sense. All the power of the one-shot vig is in that one shot. If Rhinox was full bulletproof, that one shot vig could be completely hosed by a passive ability over which he could have no control whatsoever. And neither could Agar be aware of it's existence. Making it bulletproof to only mafia is a way of preventing that problem.

Flameaxe is a better lynch then Scooby, if only because his switch from singer to nhammen day 1 is a mild scumtell. By keeping the wagons balanced, he made sure that both were alternatives to the other. Which made the second lynch less likely after the flip, because "it was an alternative to the scumlynch".

Vote: Flameaxe

I can't check in around deadline, because that's 4am my time, but I should be able to check in again before going to bed (around 4pm EST)

MichelSableheart · Post Post #1032 (isolation #6) » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:08 am

Bedtime for me, which means I can't log on before deadline anymore.

Switching back to scooby is unnecessary, and I have every confidence that enough others will be able to switch for a compromise lynch that me voting a townread to put him at L-1 is unnecessary. I would most like to see Rhinox and JDodge join the Flameaxe wagon.

MichelSableheart · Post Post #1066 (isolation #7) » Mon Sep 03, 2012 9:16 pm

Both the Rhinox and the Scooby wagons remain a bad idea.

Rhinox claim is unlikely to be made up by scum, who tend to go for something simpler and more believable. In particular, scum Rhinox could have simply claimed neighbour without any problems. There was no need whatsoever for scum Rhinox to add in the "bulletproof to mafia" part, so if he was scum, he wouldn't have done so.

Scooby is a slightly better lynch, but the fact that he was roleblocked during a night where a mafia kill went through, a lack of actual scumtells made by himand a lack of reasoning by those voting him makes him a poor lynch.

RedFF is my top suspect at the moment. His lack of activity and lack of interest in the game is far more likely to come from someone who lost two buddies in the first two days then from someone who's gotten two steps closer to his wincondition.

Vote: RedFF

MichelSableheart · Post Post #1076 (isolation #8) » Wed Sep 05, 2012 10:00 pm

Assuming 1 scumteam till I've seen evidence of the contrary. So basically we have 5 lynches to find the last 2-3 scum in 8 players. Policy lynching those we don't have a townread on should work fine, though lynching those we actually have a scumread on should work better.

@red: I'll grant you that you were first on the nhammen wagon, but I see no indication whatsoever that you actually pushed for his lynch. Bussed hard? You barely mentioned each other.

MichelSableheart · Post Post #1095 (isolation #9) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:16 pm

red wrote:Wrong, he was my biggest scumread and if you read my day 1 iso I call him scum from quite early on and (as you said) was first on his wagon.

And he attacked me a lot early in the game.

He may have been your biggest scumread, but you mentioned his name a grand total of 3 times before iam made his case, none of which could be considered to be an actual accusation. Similary, what you are describing as nhammen attacking you a lot is mainly mild questioning, and is appearing far less often then you make it out to be. That's what I consider barely mentioning, which can definately not be described as bussing hard.

@Agar: your vote is completely in the wrong place. Quagmire claimed a 1 shot gunsmith investigation on Hoopla revealing no gun, so Hoopla can only be scum if Quagmire is scum. Hoopla should therefore never be lynched before Quagmire.

@Scooby: As mentioned in History mafia, my general posting style is rather careful. Make sure to take the time to look at my town meta as well before drawing conclusions from my posting style.

MichelSableheart · Post Post #1105 (isolation #10) » Sun Sep 09, 2012 1:43 am

Scooby wrote:Michael, since you replaced in your only suspect is redff, which screams easy target all over the way. A normal townie would be paranoid of at least one superstar of the game.

With the competing bandwagons during day 1 on two scummembers, and the day 2 wagon being simple follow the cop, there is relatively little information regarding who's scum. Simultaneously, due to massclaim, there is a lot of information regarding who's town. Because of this, I'm looking at this game from a process of elimination perspective. Eliminating those I feel certain are town leaves 6 players: Knight of Cydonia, Quagmire, Scooby, Glork, JDodge and redFF. KoC and Quagmire are semiconfirming each other because their claims match, and through the roleblock on Scooby we know that he did not make the night 1 kill. That leaves Glork, JDodge and RedFF as the three players who should be our next three lynches for the win. That even gives us the mislynch to spare to get me out of the VT pool, and an extra lynch to use at KoC, Quagmire or Scooby should I be wrong.

You are completely correct that RedFF is an easy target. With a town hellbent on voting my townreads, trying to get a lynch on an easy target is the way to go. Pushing for one of the "superstars" Glork or JDodge would likely only result in a townflip of Rhinox, you or me. That I can see actual scumtells from Red, when I don't really see those from either Glork or JDodge only sweetens the deal.

For clarity, this is how I currently rate the likelyhood of each player being scum:

Mod confirmed town to me: {MichelSableheart (my role pm says I'm town), Bella (Innocent Child)}
Effectively mod confirmed town: {AGar (one shot vig), Tierce (no gun according to Knight of Cydonia's slot), Hoopla (no gun according to Quagmire)}
Almost certainly town: {Rhinox (Claim is extremely unlikely to come from scum)}
Likely town through claims: {Knight of Cydonia (one shot gunsmith matches Quagmire's claim), Quagmire (one shot gunsmith matches KoC's claim), Scooby (roleblocked by Staeg N1 means less likely scum)}
No town reads, so likely two of these are scum: {Glork, JDodge, redFF}

Scooby wrote:You are trying to stay away of the big guys hate, while at the same time changing strategically your voting to me (despite having said that you wouldnt go after me) and flameaxe, whom you never talked about before.
I replaced in four days before deadline, with two large competing wagons: one on a strong townread of mine (Rhinox), one on a weak townread of mine (you). Guaranteeing a lynch at deadline was of the utmost importance. That gives me little choice but to first vote my weakest townread, and jump on the wagon of a neutral read as soon as it's viable.

Scooby wrote:You spend a lot of posting talking about town reads and you use some weird logic to clear them ("I'm not going to vote Rhinox, because I feel it is extremely unlikely that he would try to pull a fakeclaim like that as scum") but when redff does something that is unlikely to do as scum: going after a confirmed ability player, somehow HE IS SCUM.
Let's consider the two cases a bit more in depth. First Rhinox. If Rhinox is town, he will certainly claim bulletproof to mafia neighbour, because that is his actual role. If Rhinox is scum, he is extremely unlikely to claim bulletproof to mafia neighbour, since normal neighbour is a far more logical claim to make. Rhinox did something that he's likely to do as town, and unlikely to do as scum, so Rhinox is town.

Now compare this to RedFF voting Agar. If RedFF is town hunting for scum, he is unlikely to vote for Agar, because Agar has an ability (one shot vig) that is unlikely to be held by scum and which therefore indicates that Agar is town. On the other hand, if RedFF is scum, he does have reasons to vote for Agar: trying to get rid of a town player. Sure, it's not great play from scum, but it's more likely to be done by scum then by town. RedFF did something that he's unlikely to do as town, and more likely to do as scum, so RedFF is likely scum.

@Quagmire: I must admit that I did not consider that possibility, but it seems extremely unlikely to me. Sanity issues on a one-shot ability seem unnecessarily punishing, so the presence of two one-shot gunsmiths makes a godfather unlikely IMO. And then that role has to fall on that single investigation? Considering Hoopla confirmed town unless you flip scum is by far the better play.

@Agar: when everything seems to indicate that we're dealing with a normal mafia group, gunsmith is effectively a cop that can get false positives. A negative remains a negative, though.

MichelSableheart · Post Post #1116 (isolation #11) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 9:25 pm

@Agar, re: Hoopla-me: if you look at the reasoning, it should be clear where it's coming from.

@KoC: by not providing anything to work with, you make it difficult for the other players to maintain interest as well.

MichelSableheart · Fri Sep 14, 2012 12:17 am

@KoC: What's your opinion on Rhinox' claim? You've been voting him for most of the day, but have never commented on something that in my opinion is a major towntell for him. I believe your vote would be better placed elsewhere, preferably on red.

@Hoopla: do you still believe a Scooby wagon is the way to go today? There are two significant bandwagons at the moment, and Scooby's not one of them.

@Glork: you promised us a reread a week ago, but it still hasn't arrived. Why do you believe I'm a better lynch then Red?

@Agar: your vote on me is better then one on Hoopla as it helps with the PoE, but I'm getting the impression you're choosing me because I defended Hoopla. Which would be pretty poor reasoning.

@Bella: any chance of you giving an explanation for your vote?

MichelSableheart · Post Post #1163 (isolation #13) » Sun Sep 16, 2012 6:12 am

@KoC: From your vote, I understand that you disbelieve Rhinox' claim, but I don't understand why. What is the benefit for Rhinox scum to claim bulletproof to mafia neighbour over normal neighbour? Why do you believe that's the case, rather then him being a pro-town player who is actually bulletproof to mafia?

@Hoopla: fair enough. As long as we refrain from lynching Scooby and Rhinox, we should be fine lynching me. Only if it is decided to lynch them both as well do we run the risk of running out of mislynches.

MichelSableheart · Post Post #1172 (isolation #14) » Sun Sep 16, 2012 8:54 pm

@KoC: I'm being given very little to work with, so along with me using PoE, there's only so much I can add.
To me, it seems such a muddying effect is extremely marginal, and doesn't weigh up against the disadvantage of the amount of attention such an unusual game will draw.

@CES, Hoopla: the problem being that numbers in the game don't dwindle fast enough, causing the game to stall?