Mafia 158: Titanium. Game over

[buldermar]

@Mod

Dividizzle, vanilla townie, was shot night 5.

votecount

thelocomotion (1): smashbard

not voting (5):

dividizzle

, 10506670, pappums rat, buldermar, NJAC, thelocomotion

With 6 players it is 4 to lynch (3 to no lynch)

deadline is on the 22 of november.

votecount

thelocomotion (2): smashbard, buldermar

not voting (4):

dividizzle

, 10506670, pappums rat, NJAC, thelocomotion

With 6 players it is 4 to lynch (3 to no lynch)

deadline is on the 22 of november.

[buldermar]

It's all okay. But seriously, next person not voting TBM who posts is scum. Like seriously.

Then TBM is lynched when NJAC votes:

Ok, time to decide...

After rereading some ISO's and considering what we've got until now I think this guy is obvscum.

If I'm wrong, well... gg scums, but I'm pretty sure this time we're right:

VOTE: TBM

Note that both of these posts suggest a high level of confidence in him being scum whereas I was never confident that day.

Then the very next post from TheLocomotion:

So it looks like bulder is scum guys.
VOTE: bulder

And NJAC:

Ok, I think I need to reread a bit but at first glance I'm saying definitely Buldermar and one between numbers and Hiraki/greygnarl/TheLocomotion, with numbers leaning more scum than TLM.

On another note: ideas about the setup? it's just two scums vs town compound by vanillas and two blockers? Is that even balanced?

Isn't it quite perculiar that they both were on the TBM wagon, they both were so certain of TBM being scum, and they are now both so certain about ME being scum. In the meantime, they don't find each other even remotedly suspicious. I'm completely fine with lynching TheLocomotion and I'm strongly reconsidering my initial read of NJAC.

[buldermar]

Buldermar, there are two scum left. A blocking role shouldn't affect whether scum wins or not, because the fact is if there were 3 we would not be capable of lynching anyone = scum win.

You're right - there would have to be a vig or something similar. Thank you for correcting me.

[buldermar]

And NJAC:

Ok, I think I need to reread a bit but at first glance I'm saying definitely Buldermar and one between numbers and

Hiraki/greygnarl/TheLocomotion

, with numbers leaning more scum than TLM.

On another note: ideas about the setup? it's just two scums vs town compound by vanillas and two blockers? Is that even balanced?

Isn't it quite perculiar that they both were on the TBM wagon, they both were so certain of TBM being scum, and they are now both so certain about ME being scum. In the meantime,

they don't find each other even remotedly suspicious

. I'm completely fine with lynching TheLocomotion and I'm strongly reconsidering my initial read of NJAC.

I think the very same post you're quoting explicitly says I also suspect TheLocomotion, and I didn't even vote you because I'm not as sure about my reads now as I was about TBM and maybe Maenara. So it's false that I don't find TLM "remotedly" suspicious, and wrt my reads I think that's the reason to why I'm still alive, just like buldermar, because I've been wrong and you can use that to your favor like you're doing it right now.

Ok, remotedly is a bad word, but TheLocomotion is 3rd in the scum-line. I'd say that can't be much sincere suspicion.

[buldermar]

Oh my... well I'm off now, I hope you see this before numbers and unvote, I mean we're somehow agreeing about him being scum and we're letting him hammer , gg town...

So, neither you nor numbers hammered.

In Loco-scum-world, one of the remaining players would have to be scum. That means

one of NJAC, numbers, pappums rat

.

In loco-town-word, two of the remaining players would have to be scum. That means

two of NJAC, numbers, pappums rat

. Two players out of a group of three players are scum, and two players from that group had a chance to hammer but didn't. However, any scum in loco-town-world would hammer when given the opportunity, and

at least one scum had the opportunity

. In other words,

LocoMotion cannot be town!

LocoMotion is now confirmed scum from my perspective. Also, if you acknowledge me being town, it logically follows that LocoMotion is scum.

[buldermar]

Also, given the nature of how NJAC tried to sell numbers potentially hammering I find it increasingly likely that he's a scum partner of LocoMotion.

[buldermar]

Read on NJAC is prob town. Read on rat is almost certain town.
Claim: 1-shot dayvig.

FWIW this claim has no impact on the fact that one of the two scums had a chance to hammer you but didn't if you're a non-scum role. In other words, you're scum.

[buldermar]

I am more inclined to kill you numbers. If Gnarl weren't in my hydra, you'd be dead.

But, fortunately for you, he is. We'll discuss it.

Also, if you idiots think that I'd fakeclaim a dayvig and then not vig, you're out of your minds really.

You have a scum-daykilling role that can imitate vig. That's the only possibility I see.

[buldermar]

Locomotion is right. If he were scum he would fakeclaim Vig, not Dayvig. I'm officially off that wagon.

Although I would definitely suggest Locomotion use the Daykill today. There's no way I'm believing this is a game with one scum. Therefore, we need to find and kill scum today or else we lose.

Whether that's through Locomotions daykill, or through a lynch, we need to get it done. I'm going to assume that Daykilling would not end the day phase. Although I don't know what's the industry standard rule on that. So I think Locomotion should kill before we lynch someone.

That way best case scenario, day phase doesn't end and we could potentially turn this entire game around and win in one fell swoop. Worst case scenario day phase ends and we lose anyway through miskill or mislynch.

Neither NJAC nor numbers hammered Loco when they had the chance and with two scum at least one of them is scum. Either a scum didn't use the opportunity to hammer, or LocoMotion is scum.

LocoMotion, from your perspective this means that, given you actually ARE a dayvig as you claim, you need to kill one of NJAC and numbers. These are your only two logical options.

Also, if LocoMotion does not prove himself to be a dayvig before the end of this day, he has to be lynched because then he's scum.

That is all.

[buldermar]

I still can't seem to comprehend why NJAC or numbers would chose not to hammer a non-scum when given the opportunity. Could anyone please try to explain it?

[buldermar]

Ok, I'm a bit confused but I'll share my thoughts the way they're coming:

I'm not completely sure about TLM's claim tbh. And after reading buldermar's latest posts I think there's a slight chance he's not scum. From my perspective these are the two possibilities:

1) TLM is lying and numbers is his partner.

2) TLM is saying the true, numbers is town, bulder and rat are the scumpair.

What would I suggest?

We should demand TLM to kill numbers, if he refuses to do it or simply the kill is not performed (because he's not a dayvig as he says) then we're confirming both as scum. If TLM kills numbers and he flips scum, I'll be more confused about TLM's alignment and be wondering a lot about why numbers didn't hammer, but we'll finally get rid of one scum. If TLM kills numbers and he flips town, then TLM's claim will be confirmed and the obvious scumpair will be bulder and rat.

Please tell me if I'm missing something.

Your perspective is not missing anything as far as I can tell but you're essentially just copying what I already concluded from my perspective. Since I know I'm town the obvious scumpair would you and rat, as opposed to me and rat.

I'm undecided as to whether it would be better to have him kill you or numbers, should his claim be sincere.

[buldermar]

LocoMotion, from your perspective this means that, given you actually ARE a dayvig as you claim, you need to kill one of NJAC and numbers. These are your only two logical options.

How in this world would these be his logical options? If he's town as he says he would not kill those who didn't hammer him. In that case the logical options are those who were in his wagon (namely you and rat).

I'll try to explain again.

I'm town. Smashbaard is town.

If Loco is town, it would mean that at least one of you and numbers are scum. Therefore, Loco being town presupposes that at least one scum did not hammer him.

In the case that Loco is town and scum did not hammer, it is far more likely that both of you and numbers are scum than that one of you and numbers are scum with rat in my opinion because rat actually put him on L1 (which, in case that rat + one of you and numbers is scum, would give the town one of you and numbers the opportunity to hammer). It simply makes a lot more sense that he's town and put Loco on L1. All this is obviously still on the premise that Loco actually

is

a dayvig, but if he is he should certainly lynch one of you and numbers.

[buldermar]

You know buldermar, it is possible to put all your thoughts into one post instead of spamming the hell out of the thread, right?

@TheLocomotion: Go ahead and shoot whichever of buldermar or numbers you would prefer, but please do so soon. There is no reason to drag this out. If you can in fact daykill, I think I would put you in the clear because giving the scum a daykill in a game with such low town power as it is would be fucked up. I dont see why you have not used your power yet, and am still skeptical as to whether or not you actually have this power. I think it is possible you could have fakeclaimed this in an attempt to stave off your lynch and then say you will use it tomorrow if we lynch "right" today.

P. edit: No, NJAC is my second strongest townread after Smashbard (my only non-confirmed townread, in fact). NJAC would be the worst person to daykill.

Shut up and actually read the important things I pointed out, jesus. It's not like anyone else paid attention to what could be deduced by the lack of hammer of both of NJAC and numbers.

[buldermar]

No but it does mean that you're wasting time bitching about things that are irrelevant to figuring out this puzzle. Also, it was 8 posts in a row, not 10.

[buldermar]

UNVOTE:

[buldermar]

I find that after bulder's last shit storm he should die but it's really a fair shot on both of them at this point. I'm submitting the kill on numbers now.

There should be a 2/3 or higher chance of a scum kill and if we lynch rat or NJAC next (should numbers be scum), we'd have a 50/50 in theory but I'd say it's skewed heavily towards NJAC being scum. Anyway, can talk about that once the kill has happened.

[buldermar]

Something came to me.

If Locomotion is a dayvig I think we have to consider the possibility of a three-scum team. In case it is a three-scum team, that team is NJAC, numbers and rat. As such, the people I have to prove that I'm town to is smash and Loco. Since smash and Loco will both be confirmed town, one of them will be nightkilled, meaning that it will be me plus one of Smashbard and Loco plus one of NJAC and rat (since Loco submitted a kill on numbers).

Currently, Smash has a much better read on me, which means that the possibility of Smashbard incorrectly interpreting me as scum is rather small compared to Loco incorrectly interpreting me as scum. That means in case this is a three-scum team, smashbard will likely be the nightkill.

Also, if all of this happens it will essentially be a 1-on-1 between me and one of NJAC and rat where Loco has to pick side.

[buldermar]

VOTE: NJAC

[buldermar]

Ok right, that's L-1 and Hiraki never claimed IIRC, so I'm demanding you to claim, what means I'll consider hammer if you don't give me a good reason.

Also, and just to take our time to discuss, YOU SHOULD UNVOTE RAT because I think numbers could hammer and we'll lose.

rat? r u there? Fine, some of you, smash, rat or even bulder at this point, should unvote until we discuss this better. I'm not saying TLM is town, but I have my doubts and you should have them too. So.... UNVOTE BEFORE NUMBERS HAMMERS, because with two scums we're in mylo, if we're wrong there's no more chance to win, right?

Oh my... well I'm off now, I hope you see this before numbers and unvote, I mean we're somehow agreeing about him being scum and we're letting him hammer , gg town...

You should get an Oscar for this ramble.

NOTICE:
In #1836: Advocating unvoting excessively relative to how you've been dealing with other possible lynches.
In #1837: "rat? r u there?" Why rat specifically? Also note "if we're wrong there's no more chance to win, right?" as if you're in doubt and just want to be sure by advocating unvoting.

Anyway, to the rest of town, good luck making the right decision. I've done what I think I can at this point. I may spend some time looking for scumslips from NJAC, but since I had a strong town read on him earlier I don't think I'll find any. Maybe rat, I don't know. If you for some reason want to lynch rat before NJAC that obviously doesn't matter to me - I know they're both scum. I considered advocating daykilling NJAC over numbers based on how he seemed to gain town cred by excessively advocating unvoting, as explained above, but I ended up concluding that it didn't make a big difference because I'd be 1on1'ing anyway in case that there is only two scum, and numbers would be scum in case there was three.

I'll be available if you need to ask questions etc.

[buldermar]

Alright, good luck n stuff.

[buldermar]

@buldermar, so you say you're available to answer questions, maybe you could explain why scumNJAC wouldn't hammer TLM when it would be scumwin... Meh! I think the evidence is irrefutable, and now it becomes clear how you played to fool us all.

It would only be scumwin if there was three scum. Since you know that it is only the two of you, you didn't hammer. Perfectly logical. I'm still trying to wrap my head around the fact that there is only the two of you with a dayvig and this many town roles.

[buldermar]

I mean, you were in almost every mislynch, you advocated the mislynch on Shinori (even a no lynch was better for town but not for you), you tried to get towncred by refusing to be in CE's wagon and you were sure about his innocence because only a scum could have been sure about it, you jumped on TBM's wagon when had the chance... you even tried to bring the idea of lynching a mason, and then gained towncred by explaining how it was suboptimal to falseclaim masons as scum...

You're scum, no doubt, and you're lost.

Holy shit... amazing how you didn't mention this interpretation until now. All of a sudden, everything I've done that has otherwise been considered pro-town is a sign of me being scum? You surely have been waiting to get an opportunity to compile this tile of lies, accusations and exceptionally selective memories. You may want to pretend to be ISO'ing me a bit to impersonate a thorough town trying to make sense of the game instead of unfolding all your convincing evidence at once with no research. You must have been busy taking notes of how everything I did could have been interpreted as scummy, because I see no quotes. Obviously, only a scum knowing that I would be the one kept alive would do this and throw it all at once. If you were town, you'd be asking yourself how you have missed the fact that I was scum, you'd be busy ISO'ing, you'd find small things one at a time. Instead, you just have it all ready, no ISO'ing, no quotes, and suddently your activity spikes to extreme levels because now is the time you have to prove to everyone that I'm scum. Fabricated bullshit that you've had the entire game to come up with.

I ask the careful town reader: if you had all of these reasons to consider someone scum, why would you refrain from doing so until the very last moment? Also, if any of the town readers wants my comment on anything from NJAC, let me know. I'm obviously not going to waste my time responding to someone I already know is scum - what matters is showing the rest of town it.

[buldermar]

In fact looking in hindsight he refusing to unvote when I explicitly asked him makes him your partner.

He's obviously scum, Sherlock, but he's your partner - not mine.

[buldermar]

Well it seems like both of you agree that rat has to be the partner of the other. Am I missing something? Anyway, I have no experience with LYLO so I'm going to wait for Hiraki to come coach me before I vote.

When NJAC and I are 1-on-1'ing, he's obviously the common denominator unless both of NJAC and I are scum. We can lynch him first if you care but to me it doesn't change a flying fuck because both of them are confirmed scums.

[buldermar]

Thanks - it would be much much harder for town to figure this out had you played it tricky and voted NJAC. If town wants me to comment on any of this, let me know.

[buldermar]

If you for some reason want to lynch rat before NJAC that obviously doesn't matter to me - I know they're both scum.

So you have cop guilties on us both, eh? You should have come forward sooner.

The fact that you don't even comprehend why you are a guaranteed scum for both of NJAC and I regardless of whether it's the one or the other of us that's scum underlines my assumption that you wouldn't be capable of voting your partner in this scenario.

Here is a question for you: are you capable of comprehending that for you to be innocent, both of NJAC and I must be scum? If so, why do you care if it's me or NJAC that is being lynched? I'll tell you why: because he's your partner and I'm not.

[buldermar]

I just want to get my top scumread lynched, and that happens to be you.

Yeah, you definitely don't get it. There is no such thing as a "top scumread" when you have four players left and two of them confirmed towns; a dayvig and a mason.

[buldermar]

Til you remember njac also tried to advocate a mason lynch when you self admitted you were asking around to m make sure a mason lynch was popular.

I never admitted to ask around to check if it was popular, and I never asked around to check if it was popular. In fact, I never asked around, I just stated that we should seriously entertain the idea and discuss it. That happened, and I came to a decisive conclusion that both of you must be town based on it being more disadvantageous for scum than town to claim the roles. That was before any hypothetical hopes of either of you being lynched would have been gone. I strongly suggest you reread this part of the thread if you still think I was "asking around to check if it was a popular idea".

[buldermar]

Well, I'm pretty sure that bulder is the better lynch at this point.
UNVOTE: pappums rat
VOTE: buldermar

Best post ever.

[buldermar]

Yeah, buldermar solved it all in a row of posts, but he wasn't sure about it

That's not it, but if people can't comprehend it there is no point in trying.

[buldermar]

Thanks for the game everyone. I'm sorry that I played so poorly. GG and congrats to scum.

[buldermar]

I agree with theo, buldermar, I thought you played pretty well.

Thanks, but I feel like I made some silly mistakes. This is the first completed non-newbie game of mine and I'm not used to all the different roles. I, for instance, didn't even consider a dayvig scum a possibility =)

[buldermar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSo6ohvvcTw

Ahaha.. nice try though!