NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Green Crayons]

UNVOTE:

So STD can't self-hammer, if you're really worried about it.

[Green Crayons]

as;dljas;dlfjkasdl;fj

Seconds.

[Green Crayons]

Well, just beat Patrick to the thread.

[Green Crayons]

Well, ABR, at least you've upgraded to your big boy britches.

Shame you're just wrong.

[Green Crayons]

Back from gym break.

Thought ABR was vig. Part of my all-in on him being town. Apparently I'm not good at picking up PR tells.

I'm not sure about MBL. He's always some kind of non-participant, he's hard to tie down. Plus at the end of today I felt he was pretending to start to suspect me. I found his posts made up of names and numbers without interpretation REALLY SKETCH

His post that tied STD to LML really got the STD wagon going initially. Your POE helped drive it home, but its hard to see a scumbuddy doing that. I've been trapped too many times to write someone off completely on any single event but this makes me want to write him off.

But see:

As for your question "what does MBL thinking LML buses have to do with" my original question of why isn't MBL already voting STD? Because MBL was one of the biggest proponents of "LML has a compulsion to bus his partners." Who did LML bus? Let's go to the best post that summarizes LML's feelings:

Here's who I currently think is town: Chamber, DGB, Shanba, Glork.
Here's who I am leaning town on: MBL, Undo, ABR. inHim (or any incarnations)
Here's who I have null on: Porochaz, CTD, CES, VitR, GC, Yos2, BooKitty (I feel like that wagon is incredibly manufactured... similar to mine), Kublai Khan
Here's who I am leaning scum on: UT,

Mathcam

,

STD

, Sotty
Here's who I have strong scum feelings for: PJ

Only mathcam and STD are the "unknowns" w/r/t who LML could possibly be bussing.

But who was LML suspecting hardcore all D1 -- the more visible and actually credible "bus"? That's right: STD.

The masons weighing in on how they feel about STD doesn't have any relation whatsoever on whether MBL actually believes his own LML meta claim. So the question to ask is: (1) why was MBL pushing a meta theory about LML that he now apparently doesn't have much confidence in, (2) why is MBL refusing to comply with a meta theory that he does have confidence in, or (3) unknown third option.

[Green Crayons]

Yos your questioning of DGB is still really bad and I don't actually understand how you gleaned anything from it.

[Green Crayons]

Which I think was, in part, frustrated by chamber's jumping in.

[Green Crayons]

One of MBL/SpyreX is scum.

lol you mean Spyre, the other player I wanted to lynch back when he was inHim/Zorblag?

[Green Crayons]

I'm not sure about MBL. He's always some kind of non-participant, he's hard to tie down. Plus at the end of today I felt he was pretending to start to suspect me. I found his posts made up of names and numbers without interpretation REALLY SKETCH

His post that tied STD to LML really got the STD wagon going initially. Your POE helped drive it home, but its hard to see a scumbuddy doing that. I've been trapped too many times to write someone off completely on any single event but this makes me want to write him off.

Actually, I'm curious what post you're talking about. MBL was big on the "LML busses" back in D2, but I don't recall him bringing it back up since then.

[Green Crayons]

That's a fair point.

[Green Crayons]

Ugh. 3461 was in response to chamber's 3457.

[Green Crayons]

DGB, maybe, like, an updated list of your scum suspects in descending order?

Since you're thinking this through in real time.

[Green Crayons]

(And there are so many lists out there already.)

[Green Crayons]

I would (and have) qualify him as an active lurker. The content of his posts have struck me as good, but I am willing to reassess with critical glasses on.

[Green Crayons]

I see that you've pitted us against each other. Which wagon were we on together that aligned us as such?

[Green Crayons]

You have so many posts, I'm being lazy.

[Green Crayons]

Glork (6)

-- Green Crayons,

Sotty7,

MafiaSSK/mathcam,

CrashTextDummie, Cogito Ergo Sum,

Porochaz

Glork (11)

--

undo,

KublaiKhan/OGML,

VitaminR,

Green Crayons, Yosarian2,

Albert B. Rampage, Untrod Tripod, DrippingGoofball

, chamber,

CrashTextDummie,

mathcam

GreenCrayons looks superbad here.

If GreenCrayons is town, Porochaz is scum.

On the second wagon... there's at least two scum on this... pushing on three. That's my gut feeling.

This, DGB?

[Green Crayons]

So Spyre's ISO is not highly populated with posts, but it's basically (1) STD is scum and we should lynch him and (2) DGB is cool and we should not lynch her.


Not what I was expecting (I didn't remember anything abotu Spyre's play except his post about OGML).

[Green Crayons]

I've upgraded to green.

Suck it, ABR.

[Green Crayons]

<3

[Green Crayons]

Juls, there's no way that Yosarian is scum.

Pick someone inside this group please:

[Porochaz, CDB, mathcam]

If this is the voting pool, my gut reaction (based on my memory of each player's/slot's play) is Poro > mathcam > CDB.

[Green Crayons]

VOTE: Porochz

Wanted to skim his post history before committing. Comfortable with this.

[Green Crayons]

I'll elaborate when I get home. I'm on my phone and my notes are on my PC.

Though I don't think we're going to get five more votes for an actual quicklynch (as opposed to a "quick" lynch relative to this game's pace), I do want to see this.

[Green Crayons]

Basically, I was setting up a situation where the play pro-town DGB would make was different then the play scum-DGB would have made.

Once I made it clear that I think that either DGB or STD is probably scum (which, by the way, I actually do), then hypo-scum-DGB (who presumably would already know STD was town) would probably derail the whole STD bandwagon; stop voting for him and vote for me, or change the focus to someone else, or something.

If she did then, then I'd know she was scum. (On the other hand, in the situation where scum-DGB was bussing a partner, she would have said she was confident he was scum right away; I expected town-DGB to be more then a little paranoid about my fairly bizzare question.)

The fact that she's still willing to lynch STD, even knowing that she's likely the lynch tomorrow if he's town, means that DGB is most likely town who actually believes he's scum.

Was this expectation of blatantly scummy behavior coming from DGB-scum based on your previous experience with DGB?

[Green Crayons]

@Juls:

I think I can do a quick breakdown as to how we're looking at either Poro, mathcam, or CDB. Some mindreading involved.

Masons

8) undo
9) Sotty7
11) Juls (replacing petroleumjelly)

Not Viable Lynch Candidates

(I don't think these players are on anybody's radar for today.)
1) Chamber
15) Albert B. Rampage

Lynch Pool

2) Porochaz
5) MrBuddyLee
13) mathcam (replacing MafiaSSK)
16) Green Crayons
17) SpyreX (replacing inHimshallibe who replaced Zorblag who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22)
18) VitaminR
20) Yosarian2
21) Bookitty (replacing Seol)
22) ChannelDelibird (replacing OhGodMyLife who replaced Kublai Khan who replaced Tigris)


So, going from the lynch pool, DGB matched up the following players so that if one's scum, the other is likely town, and vica versa (all according to her bandwagon analysis, which still makes me somewhat skeptical in terms of being used solely to lynch a player, but which I think is of use to help narrow the focus in light of the fact that there is some sense behind it that has led to previous success):
- Porochaz v. GC
- MBL v. Spyre
- mathcam v. Bookitty

Although I find myself going back and forth on MBL, I must admit that MBL and Spyre look good with STD's flip. ABR apparently agrees, but with much more gusto. So he picked one player from the other match ups (Poro and mathcam), presumably the one he thinks is scummier of the particular match up.


Who else is left?
- Yos: his badge of townieness has been fading since D1, but I don't think there has ever been serious rumblings as to him being a lynch candidate
- Vitamin: has weathered some serious suspicions, but is hard to read for players
- CDB: replacement station

CDB -- setting aside the fact that ABR is convinced the slot is scum -- is the best go-to third option as a practical matter. Yos and Vitamin are known quantities, we have a steady arc of their play, we can evaluate them based on other players actions, etc. CDB is none of those things.


So that nets us Poro, mathcam, and CDB.

[Green Crayons]

I'm not even sure I'd put him at townish.

Well, I would like to see your explanation for this.

[Green Crayons]

It caught my eye because it's a feeling that I entertained a two game days ago, and, since then, has been resolved into likely town, will seriously reevaluate if chamber's still alive in end game.

I'm aware that there's some pro-chamber sentiment floating around, but there's been a lot of that toward porochaz also that I've felt is unfounded, and there's always been this ABR-Chamber-VitR-CES-Porochaz clique thing (from playing together so much, not necessarily related to scumminess) happening that makes me uncomfortable. So I've been trying to ignore the vibes coming off that clique, and without it, I just don't see that much townly to find with respect to chamber.

Apart from ABR's most recent "we knew CES because we've played together" spiel earlier today, how have you picked up a we're-all-town-together clique vibe from these five? I can think of a few examples of suspicions/votes that specifically cut against such a clique.

[Green Crayons]

Also, there's a wide gap between not even "townish" (your position) and "obvtown" (false alternative you made up).

[Green Crayons]

1.5) Also note the wagon STD attacked was:

petroleumjelly, Seol, Porochaz, Green Crayons

Thus that leaves Seol, Porochaz, Green Crayons, and LoudMouthLee. I believe one of them is likely to be mafia.

Would STD really home in on a small list of players with TWO scumpartners in it and try to focus attention there?

I think you have good points in this post except for the one I'm quoting. I don't know if there's any basis to believe that STD picked one or two scum partners to highlight attention on.

Further, if we accept that STD was attempting to look protown by attacking the wagon on (assuming for argument) town-mafiaSSK/mathcam, then STD would be required to pay attention to all people on said wagon, and not obviously leave out one player.

[Green Crayons]

@Juls:

At the lake. Will post later.

I, too, am interested in seeing how your read on Yos develops as you continue through the game. I thought his strong anti-LML drumbeat throughout D1 played well in his favor as I was living the game (particularly immediately after LML's flip), but you appear to not view that as being an as-favorable quality in your after-the-fact review.

Is that correct, and I would be interested in any further thoughts you might have on that particular aspect of Yos's D1 play?

-----

@mathcam:

(1) Your perception of the reaction to your chamber-stance appears to be overblown. In 3580, your position "raise<d> so many eyebrows," and now in 3585 there is "shock" to your position. I mean, there were two people who responded: chamber himself, and me. chamber's response is a bit severe ("smells wrong"), but that's understandable because it's you commenting on him. My response is reads neutral, because it is neutral: I just want your insight as to the matter. I don't think the combination of chamber's and my posts constitute eyebrow raising and shock.

So, I'm commenting on this because you're being overly sensitive to your non-alignment-indicative position that chamber is a completely null read. Now that I have pointed that out, do you disagree? Care to explain? Thoughts/feelings/reactions?

(2)

I'm aware that there's some pro-chamber sentiment floating around, but there's been a lot of that toward porochaz also that I've felt is unfounded, and there's always been this ABR-Chamber-VitR-CES-Porochaz clique thing (from playing together so much, not necessarily related to scumminess) happening that makes me uncomfortable.

So I've been trying to ignore

the vibes

coming off that clique, and without it, I just don't see that much townly to find with respect to chamber.

If the clique's vibes have nothing to do with alignment, then I misunderstood what you were saying here. And, in light of 3585, I don't really understand what you're saying here. What are these "vibes"?

[Green Crayons]

addendum: "shock" was stated in 3584, not 3585, as a quick look up the page will reveal

[Green Crayons]

Recognizing that I can be pedantic, I don't think that this conversation is about semantics. (I don't really care about your "obvtown" comment, it was an off the cuff observation about a probably off the cuff use of the term.)

- I'm trying to understand your position w/r/t chamber because I am comfortable with thinking that you are town, and I thus want to delve into where you're coming from to see if it has merit or if there's something you've missed or if we're just on a point of disagreement.

- That led to your comment about there being a clique. <I had a response here that I deleted in light of your immediate follow-up post.> I now understand what you're saying. I don't recall there being much of that "just trust me due to experience" to justify players' town reads of chamber? (shrug)

- Word usage is very important, because it reveals how a player perceives another player's actions. I think your word usage is disproportionate to the chamber/GC reaction, which makes you look defensive. Which can be scummy. However, with your history of being suspected, it's not unreasonable to attribute such defensiveness to town, and so I wanted your reaction as to my observations. Having them, I now understand your justification for using those terms.

[Green Crayons]

Completely null-read is uncharitable. My elaboration makes it more explicit that I don't have anything particularly towny in chamber's column, and that there are even some points against him. I don't think this elevates him to the top of the scumminess pack, but it's in notable contrast to at least several people who seem pretty convinced of his townliness. If I have to boil it down to a quick phrase, I think "at most neutral" better describes my stated stance than "complete nullread."

I equate neutral and null in terms of alignment descriptors. Language!

But, more importantly: I looked at your posts, and I don't really see what points against chamber you have made.

This?

There's not a particularly strong stand against either STD or LML, and his defense of DGB is more anti-Yos than pro-DGB.

[Green Crayons]

3603 reads like scum using excuses and shock to explain away his wrongness and to stall on providing scum hunting material.

Town will be wrong. It's not the end of the world if you're town and you're wrong. It's inevitable. But 3603 reads as if we should believe Prozac's wrongness w/r/t DGB and STD has shaken him to his core or something. It looks like scum overselling town regret.

[Green Crayons]

Poro, I donno; I'd like to see him respond to your 3601.

You mean apart from Porochaz's 3603, which was his response to 3601?

[Green Crayons]

You know who was also certain in their reads: DGB.


Oh wow what a great indicator as to who is scum let's argue about which players were relatively more certain in their reads than others.

[Green Crayons]

I am up to page 90, there are a few things Im noticing, one, I am still finding it hard to drown DGB, two, there is still the weird DGB/ABR relationship, three, the masons need to contribute more, sotty because when she does, its usually useful and undo because well, what the hell has he done? 4, the yos and vitr discussion is slightly more interesting, its one in which yos's focus on the masons comes off badly for him, 5, MBL and GC are still obvtown

Scum version of scumhunting. Safe and unobtrusive.

[Green Crayons]

@Yos:

you have been pretty confident in calling Poro town throughout the entire game up until post 3713. And I do mean this literally -- for example, most recently you derided Vitamin for suggesting a Poro scum in 3709. You posting Poro-is-town meesages occurred throughout the game, and it has not diminished at the end of yesterday/beginning of today.


But now in 3715 you're going to be "pretty surprised" if he flips town?


I have whiplash.

[Green Crayons]

Do you disagree with any of my reads?

Not particularly. (Though I did notice that you didn't include yourself in the list at all.) I just wanted an explanation.

-----

I assumed Yos's positioning of chamber as "confirmed town" derives from Yos picking up that chamber is the vig based off of yesterday's twilight conversation. I don't think that chamber actually claimed vig, it is purposefully ambiguous as to who is the vig, and I'm fine with that and don't see the need to draw attention to the issue.

[Green Crayons]

Which part don't you believe?

[Green Crayons]

I find Juls's posts interesting and useful, though I do not necessarily agree or disagree with every observation she makes, so I'm fine with the day lingering for her to get her thoughts down out in the thread.

I don't find the usual back-and-forths to be interesting or useful (e.g., Yos-versus-Vitamin). So I have begun to skim these posts.

I find it interesting that new back-and-forths have not arisen. In particular, Porochaz's willful failure to address anything about his wagon has not escaped my notice, even though his posts this game day make clear that he has kept an eye on the here-and-now, not just on 50 pages ago. Feels like scum hoping that if he does not bring attention to the votes on him, that will minimize the focus of such votes, and therefore those votes might drift away to more actively discussed players.

[Green Crayons]

Nah. Your post speaks for itself.


Sorry to hear about your IRL troubles.

[Green Crayons]

Yeah, but just imagine how bad I get when I

try

to be an asshole.

[Green Crayons]

What chamber said.

UNVOTE: Poro
VOTE: Yos

[Green Crayons]

I don't discount fatigue as being a part of my Yos vote, but it's also motivated by factors I consider legitimate:

(1) His playing up of his role in getting STD lynched (scummy vibe);
(2) Confirmed town Juls, who has the added benefit of approaching the game from a different perspective of everyone else, thinks his play is scummy;
(3) MBL's points against him w/r/t immediate post-crash-recovery.


I'm still super happy with a Poro lynch, so if we're going that way, let's do it. UNVOTE: Yos, VOTE: Poro.


Also, lol @ MBL not even sticking to his "my votes are sacred" schtick.

[Green Crayons]

3946 reads like someone who has been calling Yos town all game, but has been reading people he knows (Juls) or is pretty sure (ABR, MBL) is town say that Yos has been scummy, and finds that those reasons are credited, but still would prefer his more preferred lynch.

[Green Crayons]

And 3946 reads as someone who is saying those things in not so many words in response to Bookitty's post specifically addressing the recent Yos votes.

[Green Crayons]

So, not so much "guilty conscience," but someone who is happy to find a reason to vote for his more preferred option.

[Green Crayons]

And finally:

I started this day with the intent of getting a quicklynch as we had agreed with DGB yesterday. Instead, we lurked, we derped, and we talked each other in circles without actually lynching anyone, and it's getting boring. I've lost interest. I told you this would happen.

[Green Crayons]

I guess MBL is a lot more convincing than I am.

Unvote, Vote: Yos

Also: at this point I have no idea what points you and Yos have against each other, and I have 0.00% interest in wading through the muck that is y'all's epic poem's worth of posts going back and forth.

Seriously, if you two are scumbuddies together (MBL's hypothesis), hat tip to you because my god your spat has grown so insipid I can't be bothered to muddle through it.

[Green Crayons]

Oh, disapproval? No, I'm pretty confident that my townness is apparent. This is just my self doubt in full force.

[Green Crayons]

Intended response: MBL is more "convincing" because my eyes didn't instantly glaze over his posts. So, not that your points against Yos aren't necessary unconvincing, it's just that they've become muddled and confusing. Because of the ample post history on the subject and the back and forths.


I didn't take your post as a dig at anyone. Did my post come across as a dig? I suppose it could have. I was just throwing some commentary onto the bonfire that is today. Extra, Extra: Vitamin/Yos back and forth reaches new depths of keen insight!


Hah, another dig. I joke out of love. It's the only way I know how to.


Nah, you two are fun to play with. These spats between individual players are inevitable. Without them, and the bruised egos that they produce, where would the glorious game of mafia be? It's just that it's been a while since I've been on the outside looking in. I forgot how distancing these spats can be to the rest of the town.

But seriously I don't know what specific points you two have against each other any more. If you wanted to do a quick bullet point list of Reasons Why You Think Yos Is Scum, I'd be happy to tell you whether you are, in fact, less convincing than MBL.

[Green Crayons]

What's wrong with 3988?

[Green Crayons]

I really don't get why anybody is actually voting me here. MBL's entire argument has already been confirmed by the masons to be wrong; the masons night-talk apparently happens on-site, which means that the scum's almost certanly is as well, and that means that his entire absurd conspiracy theory of day-talking scum was proven to be impossible long before he even finished making it. You can even see MBL's entire thought process; it's the typical tin foil hat thing of "what if I was wrong about everything and the scum group is the one that makes the least sense" that townies do late game when they get paranoid. It happens all the time. The problem with that is, the thing that makes the least sense usually isn't actually true.

Someone (chamber?) said that Patrick has a history of not making game mechanics symmetrical.

[Green Crayons]

I told you Yosarian was town.

Nobody believed me.

Lies and damned lies.

[Green Crayons]

Juls, there's no way that Yosarian is scum.

Pick someone inside this group please:

[Porochaz, CDB, mathcam]

lol

-----

Final Votecount

ChannelDelibird (1) -- SpyreX
Yosarian2 (8) -- Juls, Albert B. Rampage, chamber, MrBuddyLee,

VitaminR, undo, Porochaz, mathcam

Porochaz (4) -- Sotty7, Bookitty, Green Crayons, Yosarian2

From bolded on down are players with big question marks by their alignment (undo notwithstanding), and made the major push happen for a Yos lynch -- they jumped on to a Yos lynch as soon as I jumped off relative to Patrick's Post 3943. When Porochaz was the obvlynch all damned day, you'll have to excuse me if I'm only a lot suspicious about the fact that Porochaz wasn't yesterday's lynch.

VOTE: Porochaz

[Green Crayons]

Also Bookitty and I are the only non-confirmed town on the Porochaz final vote count, and I'm 100% certain of my alignment (duh) and 80% certain about Bookitty being town.

[Green Crayons]

If Porochaz flips red, Vitamin looks really bad in his shift from Porochaz to Yos.

[Green Crayons]

@MBL:

have you ever made a "how long does it take to type a post" argument before?

[Green Crayons]

@MBL:

also, what was this about:

vote: Yosarian2

unvote

vote: Yos

[Green Crayons]

Myself and Juls managed to get a pretty good dialog going these last few hours and she founds some good stuff on OGML+STD partnership. OGML pretty much ignores the push on STD and just blankets him with a "soild town" read ever since replacing in but with no explanation at any point.

When pressure moves towards OGML wagon STD comes in and votes CES.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... start=2600

Walking myself through this.

Votecount

Cogito Ergo Sum (5) -- Sotty7, Yosarian2, Bookitty, DrippingGoofball, mathcam
VitaminR (1) -- undo
DrippingGoofball (5) -- petroleumjelly, Porochaz, Save the Dragons, Green Crayons, OhGodMyLife
Sotty7 (1) -- SpyreX
Yosarian2 (4) -- Albert B. Rampage, VitaminR, chamber, Cogito Ergo Sum

Not voting: MrBuddyLee
17 alive, 9 to lynch.

This was the vote count 26 posts / 2 hours before STD voted CES. Things look pretty good from where STD is sitting: DGB (STD's main "suspicion") is a viable lynch, but there's a competing bandwagon with CES town. The next big wagon is on Yos town.

In the 26 posts from Patrick's vote count to STD's CES vote:
- Discussion was mostly about a CES lynch and CES having a history of being mislynched.
- Chamber vote on OGML.
- DGB vote on OGML.
- ABR vote on OGML.

STD does vote CES (relatively) immediately after the one-two-three votes on OGML, but before his vote, the vote count was (my tallying):

DrippingGoofball (5) -- petroleumjelly, Porochaz, Save the Dragons, Green Crayons, OhGodMyLife
Cogito Ergo Sum (4) -- Sotty7, Yosarian2, Bookitty, mathcam (DGB jumped off)
OGML (3) -- chamber, DGB, ABR
Yosarian2 (2) -- VitaminR, Cogito Ergo Sum (ABR and chamber jumped off)
VitaminR (1) -- undo
Sotty7 (1) -- SpyreX

STD's vote switch from DGB to CES shifted the balance of the leading bandwagon, but from one town to another town. Why do this?

- My first thought is because STD was playing selfishly: he didn't want his main suspicion (DGB) to get lynched because that'd show his suspicions were bad, and then he'd have to do more work on manufacturing new suspicions on a new player. Much easier to have his go-to target survive so he could keep beating that drum.

- My second thought is because STD was concerned about the wagon lineup: if DGB or CES was going to get lynched, the target with the fewer scum on it would be better. DGB's wagon had, other than STD before he switched, unconfirmed alignment Porochaz and OGML. CES's wagon had, other than STD after he switched, unconfirmed alignment Bookitty (but 80% likely town) and mathcam. This theory of STD's play makes mathcam look better.

- Third reason would be because of what you're suggesting: STD was looking to distract folks from the chamber/DGB/ABR voting block on OGML.

Throwing a vote into the mix, just to break up a volley of votes on another player, may certainly help break the momentum of the votes. STD's wordless vote, not being justified, does support this theory. The timing and lack of explanation does make it appear like STD was focused more on the optics of the situation and less about the "merits" of a CES lynch.

But I'm not entirely sure how this particular vote -- which switched the leading bandwagon from one town to the another town -- would have worked to undermine the OGML interests. The CES voters would feel more secure in their vote, feeling like their wagon was finally in the lead (plausible)? But then the DGB voters would feel like their wagon was losing steam, and might look elsewhere, including at OGML. So that's sort of a net zero gain in terms of trying to indirectly help OGML.


Current conclusion: it's a possibility that STD was trying to derail the OGML votes. I'm open to a CDB lynch.

Question: was the chamber/DGB/ABR voting block a thing before the OGML votes? I recall some in-voting between DGB and ABR on D2, but I can't recall whether they set those differences aside by the time the OGML votes occurred.

[Green Crayons]

- My second thought is because STD was concerned about the wagon lineup: if DGB or CES was going to get lynched, the target with the fewer scum on it would be better. DGB's wagon had, other than STD before he switched, unconfirmed alignment Porochaz and OGML. CES's wagon had, other than STD after he switched, unconfirmed alignment Bookitty (but 80% likely town) and mathcam. This theory of STD's play makes mathcam look better.

I will say, that if we lynch Porochaz or OGML/CDB today, and that player is town, this theory of STD's play would point to the other, non-lynched player as being scum. If the lynched player were to flip red, I think this theory of STD's play is null as to the other, non-lynched player's alignment. (That is, this theory has no basis to determine whether 2 or 3 scum were on the DGB wagon at the time STD switched to CES.)

[Green Crayons]

GC, I'm a bit confused by Post 4038. You seem to spend the whole post saying that StD could have lots of different reasons for voting CES at that point, yet you come to the conclusion that you're open to lynching CDB.

It's me literally talking/typing aloud my thought process kick started by Sotty's observations.

It ends with three explanations for STD's CES vote. Those explanations -- like all motivations -- aren't mutually exclusive. I think the lack of a justification lends credence to the theory that STD was looking to derail the OGML votes, because it doesn't lend credence to the other two theories of why STD would have switched from DGB to CES at that particular moment in time.


I'm still hoping

ABR or chamber

will let me know if they think they were a "thing" -- that is, perceived as a voting bloc -- before their OGML votes. I certainly don't recall, and it would help me form an opinion as to STD's actions. (Other folks can also chip in based on memory/actually looking this back up, but I would assume that those players who were directly involved would recall.)

[Green Crayons]

More recently, his case against me is still minimal, and he keeps referring to it, like it gives him some townpoints for some reason. However at the deciding moment he drops me and goes for yos. Especially with 24 hours to deadline, still.

This links you two together if either of you flips scum.

[Green Crayons]

Vote CDB

What happened to you thinking Poro was the better lynch?

[Green Crayons]

UNVOTE: Poro
VOTE: CDB

[Green Crayons]

oh wow how insightful i'll just let the context of the incredibly deadness of this game be my response

[Green Crayons]

like seriously the first quote is from today and the second quote is from Friday and they're both on this page.

clap clap clap

[Green Crayons]

last page, whatevs

[Green Crayons]

chamber could answer the question, though, because this game wasn't nearly as dead today as it was Friday and, frankly, I think his vote would have helped make the Poro push more viable

[Green Crayons]

like seriously the first quote is from today and the second quote is from Friday and they're both on this page.

clap clap clap

I like ABR's mode of play, it is wearing off on me

[Green Crayons]

Why did you change your vote GC?

(1) Well, I'm going to start with this:

I mean apart from the obvious.

Which is, frankly, a very compelling reason because this game is a huge drag as of this game day. And at this point we're not even talking about anything -- we're just letting days fucking tick by and my god it's horrible and irresponsible for any town member to let happen.

Hey, I know the best way to catch those last 2-3 scum: breed disinterest and apathy by letting days go by with barely any discussion!


(2) And, hell, you know, there's only that whole effort thing I did early this game day:

Myself and Juls managed to get a pretty good dialog going these last few hours and she founds some good stuff on OGML+STD partnership. OGML pretty much ignores the push on STD and just blankets him with a "soild town" read ever since replacing in but with no explanation at any point.

When pressure moves towards OGML wagon STD comes in and votes CES.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... start=2600

Walking myself through this.

Votecount

Cogito Ergo Sum (5) -- Sotty7, Yosarian2, Bookitty, DrippingGoofball, mathcam
VitaminR (1) -- undo
DrippingGoofball (5) -- petroleumjelly, Porochaz, Save the Dragons, Green Crayons, OhGodMyLife
Sotty7 (1) -- SpyreX
Yosarian2 (4) -- Albert B. Rampage, VitaminR, chamber, Cogito Ergo Sum

Not voting: MrBuddyLee
17 alive, 9 to lynch.

This was the vote count 26 posts / 2 hours before STD voted CES. Things look pretty good from where STD is sitting: DGB (STD's main "suspicion") is a viable lynch, but there's a competing bandwagon with CES town. The next big wagon is on Yos town.

In the 26 posts from Patrick's vote count to STD's CES vote:
- Discussion was mostly about a CES lynch and CES having a history of being mislynched.
- Chamber vote on OGML.
- DGB vote on OGML.
- ABR vote on OGML.

STD does vote CES (relatively) immediately after the one-two-three votes on OGML, but before his vote, the vote count was (my tallying):

DrippingGoofball (5) -- petroleumjelly, Porochaz, Save the Dragons, Green Crayons, OhGodMyLife
Cogito Ergo Sum (4) -- Sotty7, Yosarian2, Bookitty, mathcam (DGB jumped off)
OGML (3) -- chamber, DGB, ABR
Yosarian2 (2) -- VitaminR, Cogito Ergo Sum (ABR and chamber jumped off)
VitaminR (1) -- undo
Sotty7 (1) -- SpyreX

STD's vote switch from DGB to CES shifted the balance of the leading bandwagon, but from one town to another town. Why do this?

- My first thought is because STD was playing selfishly: he didn't want his main suspicion (DGB) to get lynched because that'd show his suspicions were bad, and then he'd have to do more work on manufacturing new suspicions on a new player. Much easier to have his go-to target survive so he could keep beating that drum.

- My second thought is because STD was concerned about the wagon lineup: if DGB or CES was going to get lynched, the target with the fewer scum on it would be better. DGB's wagon had, other than STD before he switched, unconfirmed alignment Porochaz and OGML. CES's wagon had, other than STD after he switched, unconfirmed alignment Bookitty (but 80% likely town) and mathcam. This theory of STD's play makes mathcam look better.

- Third reason would be because of what you're suggesting: STD was looking to distract folks from the chamber/DGB/ABR voting block on OGML.

Throwing a vote into the mix, just to break up a volley of votes on another player, may certainly help break the momentum of the votes. STD's wordless vote, not being justified, does support this theory. The timing and lack of explanation does make it appear like STD was focused more on the optics of the situation and less about the "merits" of a CES lynch.

But I'm not entirely sure how this particular vote -- which switched the leading bandwagon from one town to the another town -- would have worked to undermine the OGML interests. The CES voters would feel more secure in their vote, feeling like their wagon was finally in the lead (plausible)? But then the DGB voters would feel like their wagon was losing steam, and might look elsewhere, including at OGML. So that's sort of a net zero gain in terms of trying to indirectly help OGML.


Current conclusion: it's a possibility that STD was trying to derail the OGML votes. I'm open to a CDB lynch.

Question: was the chamber/DGB/ABR voting block a thing before the OGML votes? I recall some in-voting between DGB and ABR on D2, but I can't recall whether they set those differences aside by the time the OGML votes occurred.

GC, I'm a bit confused by Post 4038. You seem to spend the whole post saying that StD could have lots of different reasons for voting CES at that point, yet you come to the conclusion that you're open to lynching CDB.

It's me literally talking/typing aloud my thought process kick started by Sotty's observations.

It ends with three explanations for STD's CES vote. Those explanations -- like all motivations -- aren't mutually exclusive. I think the lack of a justification lends credence to the theory that STD was looking to derail the OGML votes, because it doesn't lend credence to the other two theories of why STD would have switched from DGB to CES at that particular moment in time.


I'm still hoping

ABR or chamber

will let me know if they think they were a "thing" -- that is, perceived as a voting bloc -- before their OGML votes. I certainly don't recall, and it would help me form an opinion as to STD's actions. (Other folks can also chip in based on memory/actually looking this back up, but I would assume that those players who were directly involved would recall.)

The fact that ABR/chamber/DGB were not perceived as a voting bloc at the time STD laid down his CES vote, when you get into the headspace of STD, makes it look like he didn't know how many votes OGML were starting to pick up, and simply saw three votes in pretty rapid succession. This favors a STD-trying-to-distract-from-OGML theory, as if this was after ABR/chamber/DGB, then STD would have known that there was basically a three-vote limit to their push (subject to convincing others, but still a pretty knowable limit in and of itself and not just a free fall of OGML votes that it probably would have appeared to be at the time).

[Green Crayons]

That was kinda a strange reaction to MBL's post about nothing.

It's me being annoyed at an incredibly bad post directed towards me.

(1) It ignores the fact that this game is a fucking buzzkill and needs something to happen.

(2) It ignores pretty much the only thing I've done this game day. Mr. MBL has obviously looked at my posts from today -- there aren't many, and he had to look through them to find all three of my quoted posts! -- but for some reason ignored the big post talking about how I understand the STD was acting to help out OGML/CTD.

(3) lol:

Just seems odd that you'd be a lot suspicious about something only to participate in the same exact behavior the next game day.

Oh yes the people jumping from Poro to Yos to get that mislynch, using your bad case as justification, after an active game day, after Poro had been in the lead for votes for the vast majority of the game day, is exactly like me switching from Poro to CDB.

Justifications? Popularity of vote? Game context? The fact that I still want to lynch Poro? Nah. Let's ignore that and focus on some superficial analysis: that I switched my vote away from a certain player.

That is some annoyingly lazy play.

[Green Crayons]

But, poro-scum sees today with a CDB wagon and pushes still on ABR? That seems suicidal.

I've have talked about this type of behavior before in this very game. I'm not saying that it's behavior that's mutually exclusive with town, but I am saying that there is very much a scum place that such play can arise from.

@chamber:

KK is not scum. I think LML saw him pick up a few votes and just jumped on the opportunity to hopefully swing the direction in someone-not-him.

And that someone wasn't bookitty because?

Speaking from personal experience, when I have been scum I have refused to vote the competing bandwagon player because I was afraid it looked too much like attempting to save my own skin -- which I don't actually think is anti-town, but scum are overly cautious so as to not look like they're motivated solely by self-preservation -- and instead went for a not-competing-bandwagon vote to make it look like I was above the fray of simply trying to escape the noose and to be Really Seriously Scumhunting. So there's as clean of an explanation as I can give from my own (poorly played) scum experiences.

I mean, we can speculate this thing to death, but if bookitty was LML's scumpartner, only one of them can get lynched in any given day. If LML was willing to throw his full weight behind the competing bandwagon, and either he or bookitty were lynched and flipped red, it would look a whole lot better for the surviving member the following day.

Actually -- and I didn't notice this until I was finishing up this post -- but mathcam actually points out (I have it quoted at the bottom of this post) LML doing something with respect to Vitamin that I think springs from the same mindset: show that you're above the fray of pettiness (in this instance, declaring LML's then-voter Vitamin to be town) to try to fly the flag of a Real Scumhunter.

[Green Crayons]

Hey. folks. I failed that last post pretty hard. I am, obligingly, very sorry. Manic work week with little sleep and a developing cold. I'm trying to cobble something together tonight but my head's not great so I won't promise, but work, at least, is going to be much clearer after a couple more days.

In the meantime, I think my previous posts re: partners is all still very valid in the wake of the last set of deaths. I'm hoping that a Prozac lynch is on the way to happening.

"Hey guys I'm not going to address the fact that I'm L-1 and throw out an outdated-at-best and, really, a not-actual-game-reality observation, because I hope that my seeming obliviousness will drag this day out and maybe my wagon will implode and shift to someone else in the meanwhile."

[Green Crayons]

1) Come back, say he doesn't have the time to contribute to this game, claim, and then we go from there (lynch anyway or

hunker down for another replacement process

). Or

lolololol times infinity

[Green Crayons]

Would like Jules's Top 3. Cherry on top please if you'd make two lists, one based on CDB being scum (he'd be one of the three, obv), the other CDB not being scum.

[Green Crayons]

Juls'*

<3

[Green Crayons]

lol Sotty*

I know whose playing this game, totally.

[Green Crayons]

For the record, the <3 was meant for Sotty.

[Green Crayons]

From the dead thread:

Also if this is a vig and not a SK that did me and UT in, they are bad at their job and I am personally offended.

I feel good about having been right about Zorblag (though Spyrex really helped out that slot) and Poro until the bitter end. Completely blind to Boo.

It boggles my mind that Poro wasn't lynched after STD flipped.

And that's all I have to say about that. Congrats, scum. Thanks for modding, Patrick. (Vitamin, you're still p cool even if I don't understand your vig decisions.)

[Green Crayons]

lol

Guys.

You guys.

Hey, you guys.

Guys.

Everyone needs to take that stick out of their asses and chill.


Sheish. I enjoyed playing with everyone, EVEN IF their play style wasn't aligned with mine (DGB, ABR, farside ), EVEN IF they were wrong about some things (lol everyone), EVEN IF we got into some heated back and forths (glork, chamber, MBL). You know, because this is the game of mafia: where everyone gets to be an asshole about being wrong.

It even made me self reflect about why I play the way I do. Yo, MBL, my self-certainty is an overcorrection because I historically flounder between believing my suspicions and second guessing myself. I didn't want to get real with you in-game about that because I thought you were scum trying to exploit my self doubt.


Basically, what I'm saying is that everyone was wrong, except for when they were right, but more importantly, Ether should play a game or something, you know?