OK, here's where I'm at. i've been rereading, and now i'm not as certain about what to do...
Blood: Likely town. Certainly not an sk. Certainly not a sole remaining mafioso assuming 1 mafia team of 3. Possible mafioso if there is a second scum team, but that is so far unlikely. If this is the case, I would peg fishy as the 4th mafiosos.
Bogre: possible mafia
cades: almost certainly a cpr doc. certainly not a traditional sk (no kill N0). possible anti town with odd mechanics (even-night sk, 1-shot mafia), but I don't think hyposcum cades pulls a cprdoc claim out of thin air.
kyle99: possible mafia
tubby: possible mafia
Sando: certainly not mafia (claimed mafia kill). Either a true CPR doc, or an sk. Given the benefit of the doubt for now for taking out a mafia, but we have to be careful because I've seen 2 mafia + 1 sk as the only scum roles in a game before... if that were the case in this game, however, I wouldn't think the mafia would be limited to 2 goons without a RB.
fishy: possible mafia due to probable roleblock on blood last night.
I have a couple nagging issues...
Fishies predecessor, soylent has an interesting connection to dana, which is now meaningful, knowing dana is scum.
This post, Soylent points out a "scum tell" on dana, and coaches him over the use of an FOS. Later on, towards the bottom of
this post, after being questioned about that very comment, soylent explains that "he's not voting dana because he's already voting someone who's dropped more scumtells". The peculiar thing about it is those are the only two posts where soylent even mentioned dana, and the second linked post gives me the impression that he at least wants us to think he was considering dana as a suspect. This is odd because during the rest of his play, soylent never gave any indication that dana was one of his top lynch choices, and he didn't really have any trouble questioning other players or pointing out other players who he thought was scummy. 3 out of the 4 (cades, parama, kyle, and ellibereth) he mentioned directly or implied as suspects are either known or probable town (more on kyle below). He also flipped back and forth a lot on cades and parama, but always seemed intent on lynching kyle. Rereading a little more, I noticed soylent jumped on and voted kyle just 3 posts after URoE did
here. very interesting...
Kyle also has a connection to dana.
This post is actually pretty damning for kyle. If you guys don't remember, dana unvoted a suspect to FOS kyle. Later on,
in this post, dana upgrades his FoS to a vote. What I can't figure out is if these 2 posts point to more likely kyle-scum or more likely kyle-town. The FoS points to kyle-scum, but the vote...idk. It could be bussing, but I'm not sure dana-scum busses his scum partner D1. I don't get the impression dana voted kyle out of pressure to do it either.
URoE was anti-kyle for a big part of the day yesterday. I think this is town points for kyle, because URoE took a more subtle approach to bussing dana
here and
here. (this is of course assuming it was bussing and they're not separate factions.) URoE mentioned Bogre and solemnJ only a couple times, and he had SolemnJ listed as a 3rd lynch choice and possible sk at some point. He barely mentioned soylent at all.
Dana voted Bogre in the RVS. This may or may not be important... I think due to site meta, experienced players are not likely to "random" vote their scum partner. Dana was inexperienced and possibly could have. I believe thats how the current meta came to be... inexperienced players random voting their scum partner and being discovered as a connection later. idk though... taken in context with his next move as unvoting to FOS kyle... I'm just not sure. Thats about it as far as it goes for important stuff from dana.
SolemnJ/tubby:
Here... I remember for the beginning of the game solemnJ was voting me a lot for what he claimed was a meta reason, but he never gave evidence. I really hated his question
here. Or
this question. Other than that, solemnJ doesn't really give a lot of opinions/suspicions. Thats either "townie unsure what to do", or "scum avoiding suspicions". Tubby has given us nothing so far.
fishy replaces in all over URoE. URoE was already on his way out by that point, so it could be that fishy was able to see right through URoE replacing in fresh, or it could be bussing. aside from that, he's seemed pretty solid.
Just thought of something else... assuming a RB opens up other possibilitiesas to what potential killing roles can be left.
Well, this little re-reading/exploring connection exercise didn't help me as much as I hoped it would... anyone see anything I missed or anything in my analysis that is more important than I gave it credit for? I think after doing this, kyle looks more town to me. I think I'm going to have to stick with my gut and vote bogre after everyone has a chance to look over my analysis, unless something gamechanging happens.
