NY136: The Death of ReaperCharlie (GAME OVER, Town win!)

[David Xanatos]

Not really. N1 vig shot would have theoretically a 30% chance of hitting non-Town, about 42%. SK would have 23% chance of hitting Scum N1 or 33% N2. Scum are highly likely to hit town every night.

It could easily have skidded straight down the Tubes for Town. :/

[Amrun]

It can't be both town sided and scum sided. lol

[Magister Ludi]

Post

[Yosarian2]

It can't be both town sided and scum sided. lol

Honestly, it's probably scum sided. It was only the unlikely stuff about the neighbors that kept it balanced-ish.

[Iecerint]

I think it's probably balanced by the "town 50%" philosophy.

Ideally, all factions should have a 33% chance to win IMPO, but that's not standard orthodoxy on this site.

[mastin2]

First off--
Whoah. The mafia QT has 640 messages in it. I think that's a record. :P (It's so many that the "View All Messages" feature has been disabled! o_O)

Second off--happy B-Day, Iece.

Third off--for obvious reasons, if it hasn't been done already, I'm nomming CTD for Best Performance In A Losing Cause. Haven't read the Mafia QT, yet, but still, his in-thread play was dang-impressive.


Starting my read. It'll take forever to click through. :P

PS: note to Mastin for when he reads this in post-game: it takes a special kind of

smart

to be posting like that as scum. Fear the oldies. :p

My memory's shaky--remind me what this was in reference to? (And, hey, I'm not exactly young myself, you know. :P October 8th will be my third scumday. Then again, when compared to CTD, MBL, and Yosarian2, everyone's young. :P)

PJ
Shanba
Yos2
Killerjester/saporovirus
Pine/earworm

Who's the SK and who's the power role?

Shanba is very unlikely to be the former (would have required MoI targetting either him or MBL last night). I very seriously doubt it's Yos2, and I'm not really feeling PJ either (although MBL, I think, mentioned getting SK-vibes from him a while back in the QT - mind going back and elaborating?). I find it hard to determine whether Pine's complete lack of contribution is scummy or just lazy. Saporovirus may actually be my best guess for the SK: He's giving me somewhat similar vibes as Jack in LML's "The New C9" way back when, who I correctly read as SK.

As for the Power Role, I don't really have a clue. I don't usually hunt for them

Knows there's an SK and a PR among five names. Correctly deduces it is not 3/5, and by process of elimination figures out the SK and (indirectly) the power role. Wow.

His killerjester-defense would fit with cop-yos. I remember a game in which he got a guilty on StD on N0 and sat on it until D2. On D1 he a)attacked StD unrelentingly, b)defended the guy StD was attacking, c)only settled on another lynch because this other player made sense to him as an StD-partner. I have a feeling this game may still get hairy for us.

Different player, but same result--CTD predicted the future! :P

PS: Can I call myself honorary role-cop of this scum team? According to several townies, it's impossible to predict KJ-SK or power role-DX without that particular power. :p

A thousand times, yes. :P We all thought you were a rolecop until we were told you were not. :P

every town player who believe yos was scum died.

mastin2 was shot (by us)
shanba died
PJ died
MoI died

hot damn

You have only yourselves to blame for that... :P

Having read the QT--Town MVP is obviously Yosarian2. The reasons need not be mentioned. :P

Scum MVP isn't AS obvious, since MBL played a solid game (more so in the Mafia QT than I would've thought), fighting as hard as he could and concocting some brilliant scum plans, But CTD I still feel did better overall, especially in the end. (Kinda hard to describe.)

In general, the scum team played really, really well this game, and it really felt like an uphill struggle every step of the way.

On the other hand, this was an awesome town.

...Mostly right, except for that part about an awesome town*... *points to self* :P

(*The statement "this was an awesome town" after "the scumteam played really well" implies "all the town was awesome", when we clearly had...a weak link or two. :P It'd be accurate to say MOST of the town was awesome, though. ;) )

This game, with DH, Iece, Toasty, ect, is a perfect example of why one of most important pro-town virtues is being willing to change your mind.

Believe it or not, I've actually adapted this philosophy. (You taught me this back in...that one game we shalln't speak of...in 2009.) I just got killed before I could implement it. :P (Sapo's SK flip made it obvious Demon was town, for instance, and had I continued to live, my thoughts would have been "You know, I tend to live longest when I am most wrong..." :P)

Mastin not tripping up a gambit and outing the innocent child on day 2),

Hmph. Blasted little clause in the normal rules. :P When I looked at it, I took it as a granted that it essentially meant "no cults". I didn't even THINK about Psychiatrists being alignment-altering roles when I thought of that claim. :P

But I knew that if my claim backfired, I had a nice way to get out instantly and that it'd have hopefully generated reads via the bandwagon on me. (Well, would have, if I hadn't chosen a claim *that* bad... >_<) I was simply planning on using it much later. :P

SK is generally going to shoot confirmed townies, though. The basic formula for winning as a SK is to shoot the confirmed townies at night and try to lynch the scum during the day; SK can't lynch confirmed townies during the day, and absolutely has to get rid of them all ASAP in order to have a chance of winning.

Maybe years ago, but in current site meta, SK's try their hardest to either 1: shoot like a vig (not this game, for obvious reasons), or (if a vig is present) 2: shoot for the "middle"--leave the confirmed innocents to the scum, leave the scummy players to the town, and lynch the middle.

There's a reason I tend not to consider SKs to be true scum. If they shot confirmed town, they would be, but they almost never do. (Like I said, I love the idea of using an SK like a vig, though I'm apparently in the minority that way... :/)

[CrashTextDummie]

My memory's shaky--remind me what this was in reference to? (And, hey, I'm not exactly young myself, you know. October 8th will be my third scumday. Then again, when compared to CTD, MBL, and Yosarian2, everyone's young. )

This little gem after I started posting my intro analysis:

I get the distinct impression CTD is town.

...I mean, I realize that he's not reading the thread, but for him to be posting like THAT takes a special kind of stupid as scum.

I could point out any number of things which scream "town" to me, but he's effectively off of my list, for now.

As for SK-metas:
I have an irrational fear of NK-immune SK's, as I've lost to one as scum on more than one occasion. For them, optimal play is to avoid killing scum for a couple of days, at which point they become unlynchable. That's probably why I tried extra hard to get him lynched in this game. I was a bit surprised that the living townies didn't get the idea that maybe I just had a really strong read on him, the tells he dropped really are among the most reliable there are in my book.

[killerjester]

This was my second game on-site, and I got owned :S

[CrashTextDummie]

By the way, I'm glad you guys are enjoying the scum QT, had a feeling some of you would get a kick out of it.

[Amrun]

killer, you didn't do too badly. People get caught sometimes; just how it works. Claiming doctor was a good idea. Thanks for replacing in.

[Magister Ludi]

Hey, CTD and MBL and PJ and Thor, we're in another game called secret society mafia, if you've got the time, head on over to it.

[Iecerint]

GUYS SUPERNATURAL PREMIERE IN 30 MINUTES.

OMG IM EXCITED.

[Amrun]

Several people from this game have been nominated for scummies! Drop by the scummies thread to nth etc if you feel they deserve it.

[Magister Ludi]

If we had won on day four I would have nominated us for best scum team, but alas...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ah the long national Nightmare is over.

Congrats to Iec and Toasty for making the right call. Good job.

I noticed Yos was nommed for Paragon and got to the Nth stage before I even read the thread. I concur.

Overall I think the game was probably a little Town sided. Town had pretty much everything go wrong for it (overall not good use of Night powers, Gunsmith missing Day 2 with a guilty) and still won despite being generally outplayed (except for Yos, IMO) by the scum team. I think had Pine's slot been active things would possibly gone very differently. MBL getting lynched Day 2 would have certainly changed the course of the game.

Good modding Amrun. Nice flavor in a Normal game, good work with replacments and vote-counts.