NY 150: Mob Money Mafia GAME OVER

[mastin2]

Addressing split, who thinks the game's over.

Admittedly, bunny's hammer-without-reason kinda sorta does support the "Ha, we just won!" point of view, but again, there's no way that it could happen with the setup, unless T-Bone is completely incompetent and his setup reviewers let the ridiculously scum-sided setup go through unhindered. I'd like to have more faith in them than that.

There has to be four scum for it to even be CLOSE to balanced.

[splitfarvle]

All I know is I'm telling the truth and am lynched. Good luck if there is a tomorrow.

[Pine]

Obviously. Which is why Bunny's hammer is obviously not a scumhammer.

[T-Bone]

That's a lynch!

Vote Count
Splitfarvle - 3 (Pine, Mastin, Bunnylover)
Bunnylover - 1 (Splitfarvle)

Not Voting - Twistedspoon

Dead

Splitfarvle - Town tracker

- Lynched Day 7

It's now Night 7. Night actions, with only 4 players left, Day 8 will start if all actions are received in 24 hours or in 48 hours if they aren't, whichever comes first.

[T-Bone]

You guys find the mangled remains of Bunnylover.

Dead

Bunnylover - Town Neighbor

- Killed Night 7

It's now Day 8, with 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch.

[Pine]

Well shit. Scum was in the Palisade hydra group after all.

Who originally suggested a Palisade voting bloc?

[Pine]

Leaning towards Mastin, but he was one of the strongest to call out BB, and Mastin's been bussing a lot less lately. Need to read TS, but can't until this evening.

[Twistedspoon]

Hey Mastin. why did scum kill BL over Pine in the neighbour group do you think?

Who originally suggested a Palisade voting bloc?

Mastin

I don't believe in voting blocs anyways. In retrospect it was a good idea for me to have declined that invitation

Leaning towards Mastin, but he was one of the strongest to call out BB, and Mastin's been bussing a lot less lately. Need to read TS, but can't until this evening.

what do you mean he's been bussing less recently? Is he perhaps aware of this possible meta

If we're going to discuss meta though it's also Mastin's meta to hardly ever live to Lylo as town =p

It's now Day 8, with 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

don'tcha mean 3 alive mod?

[Twistedspoon]

I also found Pine's vote on spit a lot more town from my view than Mastin's. I wasn't on the wagon though. Interesting that BL was killed over me after that

[Pine]

In the last few months he's been bussing less, as I was calling him out for his pattern of turbo-bussing earlier in the year, and correctly nailing him as scum for it. I only pointed out the change in his pattern to him a couple of days ago. His attacks on BB precede that. Don't think you're off the hook, TS.

[Twistedspoon]

mhmm

can I start a popcorn massclaim?

[Pine]

No, considering I've already claimed.

I haven't decided which of you I want to claim first.

[Twistedspoon]

well I just volunteered to claim but w/e

I'm indifferent to which of us claims first. This game is so weird anyways. After tracker + cop I could believe anything =_=

[Pine]

Mastin, claim

[mastin2]

Funnily enough, I knew this was going to happen. I knew I wouldn't die, despite the fact that most people consider me confirmed town, and that going into lylo, it'd most likely be you two crossvoting. I knew that, despite Bunnylover being the best mislynch, BL would be dead today. And I knew it all, because...

...I realized that there would in fact be scum in the Palisade bloc. And in fact, I'm fairly certain that I know who it is. The only reason that I'm not voting immediately is because I'd get chastized for recklessly diving into lylo by voting immediately if I'm somehow wrong. I'll double-check the facts, review the evidence another time, but again, I made a note in my QT of exactly who I thought was scum, and I figured it'd be them regardless of whether it was me or BL who died--and I was certainly hoping it'd be BL, since I knew BL would be mislynch bait in lylo, I knew that if need be I could easily prove I'm confirmed town, and I knew where I was going with my lylo vote.

All because of the PM nightkill. When he was still dead because of a protect (split-as-scum), it made sense that he died protecting someone. Once it was shown that he didn't (that he really went nowhere, and therefore was nightkilled), it became as clear as day who made his kill. It also became clear who'd kill Oversoul and Nacho. Suddenly, all the nightkills made sense to me. Every action made sense, including the final BL kill.

So you've probably guessed who it is, but again, no vote 'til I confirm my facts.

[Pine]

What the fuck are you talking about, Mastin? Stating all of that and leaving it open-ended, not saying who it was, looks like you want one of the two of us to walk into some kind of trap, or one of us to jump to a conclusion, because you were just ambiguous enough to apply it to either.

Leaning strongl to Mastinscum now.

[mastin2]

You forget I have a QT, Pine. I have the message in there.

Also on the other hand, I'm dead, since I'm conftown and dangerous to have in lylo.
Though I wouldn't be surprised if Bunny were instead killed, to leave lylo as a contest between the members of the Palisade hydra.

Basically, I die.
Bunny's framed, and is the prime mislynch. TS is the secondary mislynch. Pine's most likely scum.
I live. TS is framed (primary mislynch), Pine's secondary mislynch. Pine's still most likely scum.

Why?

Well, who else'd pull the wifom-kill on Matt?
Who else was at no risk of being lynched?

Who else could do it without compromising their wincon?

In other words, it's 98% likely to be Pine.
It's 1.5% likely to be TS.

It's only .5% likely to be BL, the mislynch bait.

Of course, Pine'll most likely kill me.

While I'd love it if he let me live, thinking he could get a victory over me and gloat about having fooled me to the end and endgamed me...

...He's not that stupid. He lives by the rule that he'll let me live in a game until he thinks that I'll turn against him, and now's the time which I'm turning against him; he's smart enough to probably realize that I am doing just exactly that, so bam, I'm gone.

Put bluntly.

TS--while not in line officially to be lynched--was the person we'd turn to lynching after PM and split flipped town, since the neighbors were "masons" (no, not with our extra flipped power they're not), I'm conftown and a pain to mislynch, leaving...TS as the only person who would be left.

Killing PM paints a target on his head which otherwise would not have appeared.

If TS killed anyone else, then it would have been a PM lynch yesterday, and a split lynch today for a win. There mighta been BL suspicion thrown around, but it'd have fallen through in the end, and TS wouldn't have caught anyone's sights. A perfect victory.

With TS killing PM, and then BL after that, it's painting a huge target on him. It'd be putting himself into the firing line, needlessly risking his life. It sets him up as being the final lynch, and as scum, that's EXACTLY what he wants to avoid. This would require him to go for a WIFOM-victory, by double-screwing himself over with both NKs and HOPING that I'd fall for it...

...OR, that he's town being set up with both kills to fall into the firing line. To be the mislynch bait. He's become vulnerable, he's become a target. And who would set TS up, other than Pine?

[mastin2]

Bah, just lost my post. Basically, there's also the fact that BL died. Given that we've had a SIGNIFICANT spike in town power, with two bodyguards and a tracker, would the neighbors still think each other confirmed town?

Would they think that it'd be between TS and I? No, there'd be paranoia on BL's part. Maybe in the end, BL would conclude as much, but there'd be suspicion of Pine, and that suspicion would only grow once one of TS and I died, leaving the other wide open to attack--and leaving BL (the weaker of the neighbors) as an alternative. Setting up a BL-TS situation, most likely. And in that scenario, BL would know what had happened, would have evidence from BL's QT to help prove it, and could potentially turn things around against Pine, by using their conversations against him--just like Tammy did to MoI. Pine was part of that game (not much of one, mind you, but still was there), and presumably would know the power of a neighbor QT to destroy him. It's a threat, one best not had in lylo.

Again, TS had nothing to gain by killing BL. BL was TS's best shot at a mislynch. And in a TS-BL-mastin2 three-way, TS has about equal chances with all three players. TS-Pine-mastin2 shifts the favor against him significantly, since Pine has been seen as being miles more town than BL for most of the game.

[mastin2]

Also...

Oversoul - Vanilla Townie - Killed Night 4
Nachomamma8 - Town Bodyguard - Killed Night 5

The proof is in the order of these kills.
You need only look at my loss in GvE, CvL to see why if I were scum, Nacho would die

first

, and Oversoul second.

But working off of the theory that Pine is scum...when it comes to members of the Palisade hydra, who is he closest to?
Me, the co-founder of the hydra. Hence, why I'm still alive.
Who is he second-closest to?

Nacho, the last member of the Palisade hydra killed. Saving him for as long as humanly possible.
Who is he next-most-familar with?

Oversoul, the first member to be killed, someone who is close to him, but not extremely close.

Who is he least-close-to?

TS, who has lived to be the target of the mislynch.

[Twistedspoon]

oh my gawsh mastin

What are you glubbing about. You've been ambiguous the whole game and you're keeping it up now? You can't come out on the final day and say "I knew it all along." That makes no sense, even for you. You tell me why it all happened and why you're leaving it until Lylo before you're giving anything because I'm sick of blindly listening to you. Look at where that's got us. And you don't even have the nerve to declare your scumread read now. Your post couldn't be more a mafiosi tell if you tried.

I mean if you knew there was scum in the palisade bloc as you say when did you lynch our tracker yesterday? >_>

This game hasn't been the most fun and I'm tired of all you've put me through in it.

Claim now and then tell my how you knew BL would die tonight, along with the connection between the NKs you so desparately want to analyse. Lylo isn't a good day to open this can of Wifom on us now

Ugh. You have the Panache of Holmes and the mindset of Watson.

I wrote all that before your above

two

three posts. Darn ninjas. It didn't seem right for me to keep a rant about your ambiguities when you made a post explaining your thoughts immediately after ^^"

anyways you still need to claim for us. Whilst your NK analysis is surprisingly logical about myself being the prime myslynch and the PM NK almost resigning myself to a myslynch through the town statuses of both of yourselves (although we now now that one of you is scum ) I'd like first thing to be first. We both need to claim at this point.

Would scumMastin have set up a TS-BL-Mastin Lylo? I would have imagined so, but Mastin never saw Pine as town at the start of the game as I did, whilst I was never able to understand BL town myself. I always have and forever will find BL hard to read. If Pine is scum then he's played this game in a very swashbuckling manner since his D1 gambit to lynch himself after BL he was once so sure of her scum alighment... which we now know not to be the case.
Either way one of you two made the mistake in allowing the other to reach Lylo in an attempt to myslynch me against two seemingly-solid 'townies'. Gawsh it's so obvious now why PM was killed. The only question is which one of you did it. Does the order of the Nacho/oversoul kills really matter though? At the pace the game was going at perhaps not.... other than that Mastin puts up a surprisingly easy to understand thought process. I really wasn't expecting that but it has certainly made me reconsider.

[mastin2]

Lowell - Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day 1
Damon Gant - Town Cop - Killed Night 1
SlySly - Town Traitor Rolecop - Lynched Day 2
Mcqueen - Vanilla Townie - Killed Night 2
Chkflip - Vanilla Townie - Mod-Killed Day 3
Kondi - Vanilla Townie - Mod-Killed Day 3
Kise - Mafia Traitor Jailkeeper - Mod-Killed Day 3
Andycyca - Town Miller - Mod-Killed Day 3
Oversoul - Vanilla Townie - Killed Night 4
Nachomamma8 - Town Bodyguard - Killed Night 5
BBmolla - Mafia Goon - Lynched Day 6
Projectmatt - Town Bodyguard - Killed Night 6

Also, think about it. Damon's kill is obvious, because he was a cop. But he also showed Kise suspicion and was interested in lynching a neighbor. Which means that he very well could have investigated a neighbor, and was on the right track--a threat, killed despite the scum potentially fearing protective roles. They took a risk by killing him, despite having a jailkeep (roleblock) to work with.

Sly had a VT rolecop of me. This is what has semi-cleared me by itself (especially when you realize he was trying to get me mislynched by pointing to the supposed mason claim as evidence I'm scum), though some have brought it into question.

mcqueen attacked SlySly, and was widely considered town. But of the neighbors, the one he consistently antagonized? Pine. He defended BL to the death, and was consistently suspicious of Pine.

[mastin2]

other than that Mastin puts up a surprisingly easy to understand thought process.

Hence why I'm supposed to be dead well before lylo. The longer I live, the more I pick up steam. I'm not completely convinced it's Pine, yet, but I am a good 90% sure it's him. I'm going to try an Oversoul/Nacho iso, maybe throw in PM as well, see what comes up. But I think the picture can only become clearer from this point: everything points to Pine.

Since guess what?

Which neighbor did Sly attack hardest? BL.

Which neighbor did Kise attack? BL.

[mastin2]

I'll be honest, PM's posts and Nacho's last posts are giving me a little hesitation. Will double-check, but first, I wanted to take a look at Pine.

Thought I already had, actually.

Unvote
Vote: BB

He wasn't on BBMolla, despite his suspicion being on BBMolla; this was his excuse and switchover.

Rest of his iso earlier up gives me pause, though, especially when considering that BBMolla was pushing Pine as scum. If they bussed, it was mutual, and it was planned.

But in hindsight, that might actually explain a lot--if the QT were Pine and BBMolla, a mutual bus between them for massive towncred would be exactly the kind of gambit necessary to pull through. Going to check a lil' more.

[mastin2]

(This is why I resisted the urge to flat-out vote Pine from the get-go. )

[mastin2]

SlySly - 8(Knox, Mcqueen, Kise, Mastin, Bunnylover, Pine, Kondi, BBmolla)

This would strongly suggest the scum either didn't know Sly was scum, or figured they'd get towncred from bussing him. Kise and BBMolla are both on there, and if Pine's also scum, he's present as well.

Note, however, this:

Bunnylover - 6 (Oversoul, Pine, Mastin, Chkflip, Bunnylover, Projectmatt)

With neither BBMolla nor Kise on the lynch, they easily could have lynched BL if they wanted to--why didn't they? If Pine were town, it'd set him up as the D3 mislynch, since people like me thinking both were town were in the minority at the time.

If Pine were scum, however, it makes perfect sense to keep both neighbors alive for as long as possible--to ensure that Pine doesn't get lynched the minute BL flips town. And it was only later in the game (some time mid-day-three) that people began to swing towards the belief that both neighbors were town. And my stance was that, that they were both town. I concluded they were meant as masons, and Pine said that in their QT they concluded much the same. And TS was mostly thinking they were town.

Meaning that it would therefore be safe to kill BL without getting nearly as much suspicion. If anything, under the impression that both are masons, killing BL gives Pine even MORE towncred, since it shows that "the neighbors are a threat! We'd kill both of them if we had two nights to do so!", basically setting Pine (under the "masons" theory) up as confirmed town, when he's anything but. And this is confirmed with my view on them (exactly that, that they were both town), along with TS's stance:

Pine is almost conf. town after BB interactions and everything else.

Pine makes a lot of sense as the last scum for this, because again, going into the night, TS thought Pine was town. Last Pine knew, I thought Pine was town and had shown TS suspicion.

BL, however, was an unknown, an unknown which the neighborhood could help decide overnight.