Guns & Roses IV [Game Over]

[eyestott]

All challenges must be in BOLD, or they shall not count.

What does this mean? is a challenge different to a vote?


regardless, I'm first too
VOTE: votato

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Hmmmm, maybe it's in here for a reason, like fine print in the terms and conditions that gives you a million dollars if you actually read it

Challenge: Firebringer

LETS GO BRO

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Has a lynch ever actually been achieved during RVS?

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Foolproof

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Only 3 townguns. Clearly firebringer is scum else it would be 4 townguns

VOTE: firebringer

What makes you think fire isn't one of the three?

Because if firebringer had picked a gun, he would be one of the four.

iTs sImPLe
fOoLpRoOf

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Still on page 3!
UNVOTE:

[eyestott]

eyestott! Are you reading up articles on townplay or are you ready to solve the game?

I’ve just read “advanced scumplay 1010101”. Was a very exhilarating rea-


I mean, I’ve been asleep! I don’t think I can solve this yet? I’m just considering the benefits and drawbacks of massclaiming, and on which day the benefits outweigh said drawbacks

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Okay, DonSirloin is my strongest townread

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Okay, DonSirloin is my strongest townread

How dare you

Don't worry Paragon, you can have my townread too

But you'll have to earn it

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Legendary :O
Hmmm... Don't do scummy stuff, do do solvy stuff?

I have a theory as to a way to achieve a solve, care to help me iron the theory out?

[eyestott]

The question is, during a mass claim, will the three scum all claim gun, all claim rose, or some mixture of the two?
statistically, (assuming that all townies claim truthfully) there are four scenarios

1: 8 town rose claims, 6 town gun claims
2: 9 town rose claims, 5 town gun claims
3: 10 town rose claims, 4 town gun claims
4: 11 town rose claims, 3 town gun claims

in scenario 1, we confirm 8 players as town, and in scenario 4, we confirm 3 players as town.
2 and 3 arent quite as useful scenarios, but they do allow us to make interaction based scumhunting much more accurate, especially within the n+1 claim groups (rose in 2, gun in 3)

The main downside to this is that it gives the mafia full setup knowledge (other than which night people's activities activate).

[eyestott]

So my question to you is:
When does the benefits of a mass claim outweigh the drawbacks? And given that a single fakeclaim from town would ruin said plan, how likely do you think a town fakeclaim would be?


Maybe once one scum is dead, and there's only 3 scenarios, all of which result in the 2 scum either being in the same group (clearing the other group) or different groups (narrowing down possible pairs from factorial based to multiplication based)

[eyestott]

Your vote is looking lonely and unused there, eyestort. Do you fancy joining me on cakez? He essentially sheeped someone else who gut read Something_Smart as scum without giving any reasons for it.

Sure!
VOTE: cakez

[eyestott]

I'm not actually sure whether scum want to shoot for roses or guns. Shooting for a rose poses a decent chance of the shot being wasted, while shooting for guns are guaranteed kill-shots. I think it depends whether the rose elimination strat is viable, and I don't think it really is based on the number we have. Gun claims are probably just free shots for scum.

If we mass claim, scenario 1 or 4 never happens for obvious reasons. Scum are gonna claim so they don't confirm one of the pools. 2 would probably claim rose, and the other gun. Technically you can try and lynch the gun to clear the other guns, but I really don't think the payoff is worth it.

At this point, guns are so much more likely to hit town than scum, I reckon scum would be fine with leaving guns alive until they've 'thrown away their...
SHOT'
I think that waiting till 1 scum is dead is probably the best middle ground too.

[eyestott]

There are 8

Town

Roses

remaining.

I have something in mind to give us a slight edge. Will talk about it later.

So the plan is simple, we know we have 8 townies with roses, that means there's three with guns.
So one by one we just claim whether we have a gun or not. No need to claim what night it will be used on. That way we basically get 3 ICs and reduce the lynchpool by 3.

That’s an overly simplistic and incorrect way of looking at things

[eyestott]

I AM SO CONFUSED RIGHT NOW

[eyestott]

So the plan is simple, we know we have 8 townies with roses, that means there's three with guns.
So one by one we just claim whether we have a gun or not. No need to claim what night it will be used on. That way we basically get 3 ICs and reduce the lynchpool by 3.

I see a flaw in your plan! What stops 1 of the scum from claiming gun? Do you still lynch in the guns aiming to hit them?

If you were joking, I apologise and give you permission to berate me.

Scum either choose to give us 3 ICs or put themselves in the lynchpool. If all 3 scum choose to claim having a gun then we can make the 3 shoot the other 3.

Why are you assuming scum ever put more than 1 of them as gun claims? One of them will fakeclaim gun, and so lynching in the gun pool is going for 1/4 chance of scum if we do this. Lynching in this game regularly is going for 3/13 chance of lynching scum, which is actually only marginally lower odds than your strategy which requires a mass claim and giving scum all the cards.

It's 14 not 13. Like I said it gives the vig a pool to shoot in. If only 1 of them claims to have a gun, we lynch 1/4, 25% chance to hit scum, vig kill reduces the pool even further. We lynch scum day 2 or 3 max. Guaranteed. What cards are we giving the scum please tell me? How does it hurt town.

The fact that you don't see how this negatively impacts town is worth -2 townreadpoints.

[eyestott]

Engage with me eyestort I will stort this out for you.

I haven't played in a large game in a large amount of time, and there's too large an amount of people for me to have developed

qualia

for many people yet

Chkflip, compare Knightmare's way of explaining his plan with my own. Do they ping differently to you?

[eyestott]

eyestort, they are both similar but also vastly different. Both net a modicum of information that is arguably useful but also not very useful; however, both are bad because mass claiming is bad and you should feel bad for letting it snowball to this. I hope this helps.

I'm crying now
does that make you feel good?

[eyestott]

+1 townreadpoint

[eyestott]

eyestort, they are both similar but also vastly different. Both net a modicum of information that is arguably useful but also not very useful; however, both are bad because mass claiming is bad and you should feel bad for letting it snowball to this. I hope this helps.

Still, does it help you sort Kneye?

[eyestott]

except we dont know how many guns scum have!
what if they all claim rose, and manage to NK all three guns in night 1?

[eyestott]

They do also get a factional kill, but good point.

[eyestott]

Why can no one spell my name right? It's not that complicated
p-edit: They'd only need to kill 3, wouldn't they?

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Sorry etytteost.

I just threw up a bit there

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Honestly, that's better than etytteost

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VOTE: Knightmare491

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VOTE: eyetott

That's not a town mindset, it's scum trying to scare town.

I think there's a very real possibility Knight is scum trying to force a massclaim so he and his buddies can kill all the guns N1
VOTE: Knightmare491

[eyestott]

you're right, scum could make a play for a scenario we all agree is worse for them. its possible. but realistically, they split 1/2 gun/rose. then if nothing goes wrong its 1/4 chance of hitting scum. if things get messed up because a townie fakeclaims or night actions mess things up, the odds go downhill. Plus we are hoping that the guns get their shots off night 1, which we cant count on.

Okay, let's suppose you are town and you chose a gun. Tell me realistically what night would you choose.

1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[eyestott]

I have very little faith in my own scumhunting abilities, probably because I’ve only recently started playing mafia again and was not very good when I last played. And since I’ve started playing, I haven’t exactly been the most accurate with my reads. So I will admit that I was hesitant to vote you. But that’s comes from a place of feelings of inadequacy, not scum.

[eyestott]

if there is a scum lynch day 1

have you considered that a scum lynch day 1 usually results in town losing the game?

at least in my experience - but i think others will disagree

massclaim huh?

wut

[eyestott]

Can you explain what you mean, Iconeum?

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So, would you object to your own lynch then?

[eyestott]

I'm not advocating for your lynch, I'm just trying to understand your point of view.
Mind you, I don't mean your immediate lynch, but in approximately two weeks time.

[eyestott]

I think so. You dont want to be lynched because:
you don't want to die because playing mafia>dying
people have an inflated sense of self worth
dying now wouldn't actually give the town any information, especially because you've hardly said anything so far.

[eyestott]

I’m here for a bit. Someone engage with me and ask me about something

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Lilith, I didn’t feel any scum vibes from Iconeum when I spoke to him.
Although, out of the two players who’ve recently started their activity (vecna and iconeum), vecna seems more towny to me than iconeum.

[eyestott]

I’m here for a bit. Someone engage with me and ask me about something

Who are your scum reads and why?

My d1 reads tend to be as accurate as closing my eyes and hoping for a miracle. My only even semi-confident scum read atm is Knight, for the way he went about his setup spec.

[eyestott]

Lilith, I didn’t feel any scum vibes from Iconeum when I spoke to him.
Although, out of the two players who’ve recently started their activity (vecna and iconeum), vecna seems more towny to me than iconeum.

Uh....... thanks for telling me this but I didn’t ask you anything???

Oof

[eyestott]

Lilith, I didn’t feel any scum vibes from Iconeum when I spoke to him.
Although, out of the two players who’ve recently started their activity (vecna and iconeum), vecna seems more towny to me than iconeum.

Uh....... thanks for telling me this but I didn’t ask you anything???

Oof

Just tryna start discussion...

[eyestott]

Wait, eyestott, are you an elbirn alt?

Nope, he just lent me his avatar cause my one was literally a bag of dirt

[eyestott]

I’m here for a bit. Someone engage with me and ask me about something

Who are your scum reads and why?

My d1 reads tend to be as accurate as closing my eyes and hoping for a miracle. My only even semi-confident scum read atm is Knight, for the way he went about his setup spec.

Why is that scummy?

Gimme a few minutes to re-ISO him and I’ll get back to you

[eyestott]

The way he’s stuck to his guns about a massclaim strikes me more as “scum who has dug themselves into a hole so they keep digging down hoping they find a cave that leads back to the surface” rather than “town staunchly stickler to their pro-scum ideals”.
Also, he goes off at me for suggesting that maybe the scum all picked guns for the same night, when he ‘PRIVATELY’ asked about the viability of THIS EXACT THING, long before I even suggested it.

They do also get a factional kill, but good point.

i don't think they can multitask and shoot 4 players in a night.

I asked the mod yesterday, they can.

[eyestott]

I’ll make a proper case when I have access to my computer tomorrow rather than my phone right now.

[eyestott]

town staunchly

sticking

to their pro-scum ideals

[eyestott]

i don't like that iconeum finally shows up and doesn't contribute anything. I was gonna swap my vote but then chk gives that super weak abr vote, so it gets to stay

Wow this was horrible. A whole post of wishywashy nonsense

VOTE: votato

Ahhh my bad Lilith, first time I read this and responded to it I’m not sure what happened, but I confused votato and iconeum.
Please ignore the post directed at you.

[eyestott]

Its just the impression I get when reading his posts. He calls shit as he sees it, isnt afraid to piss people off, and is generally just flailing about in a way id expect a towny to do that is somewhat newer to this.

Its not a strong super-confident read, and im not gonna use much energy to oppose this wagon if thats what a majority wants, but I wont be voting there,

That's fair. I don't agree with you, I think Chkflip hit the nail more closer to my thoughts.

Here is an oxymoron: viewtopic.php?p=11766721#p11766721
Knight is town for discussing massclaim, but no one else can because they are scum? He didn't point to anyone and many were discussing it because, guess what it was a discussion that Knight brought up.
Vote low hanging fruit: viewtopic.php?p=11768783#p11768783
And finally his town reads: viewtopic.php?p=11768820#p11768820
Like really, eyeslott and Paragon!
Paragon isn't even the top of my town list. He barely post and made a few points and has gone MIA since. And yes as the game goes on my read on him goes down. I see scum make a few good post and disappear after so that is why I'm on the edge with him.
But lets say he thought players discussing the massclaim were scum, why not say who and why? Why not vote for them?
He's obviously played mafia before, because he said as much. So I will not coddle a player that played and knows how to fake town tells.

Okay you make some good points.


But I still prefer my knight in shining armour.

[eyestott]

What I mean to say is that I’m not opposed to a votato lynch, but I’m still more confident that Knight is scum.

[eyestott]

Hey all, so sorry for my inactivity. My dad has something called ‘cerebral thinning’ in his frontal lobe or something which may be why he’s been showing symptoms of aphasia semi-recently. I’ve been inactive on the site as a whole for the past few days, so please don’t view this as strategic lurking.
I’ll be spending about an hour on this game when I wake up tomorrow. Right now I’m aware of 4 votes on me, and I appreciate that this was probably the worst time for this inactivity to happen, but ultimately family comes first.

[eyestott]

This game has been updating faster than I can read, and I apologise for that. My father feels alright, but earlier he was calling facemasks “spacesuits” because he couldn’t remember the right word.
I’m still in the page 40-50 area. Can someone link me to some of the cases for and against iconeum?

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Oh forget what I said. Reading this most recent page i thought he was the main wagon.

[eyestott]

I’ve just looked at the last 3 pages. Where can I find cases for and against these two players?

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I’m going to use random.org to decide on which person to put my vote on while I sleep.
Cause I need to sleep now.
I will be on before deadline.

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It told me that I should vote
When I’m confident in someone being scum
:/
I’ll see y’all in about 9 hours.

[eyestott]

Yo guys. I’m in a bind.
There’s still a chunk of D1 that I haven’t read, but given that we have like, 7 confirmed townies (the dead plus the unCCed guns) is there much point going back over those posts or should I jump right in with D2?
I don’t WANT to be in permanent catch up mode...

[eyestott]

Well, if there were two solid opportunities for a Maria lynch that both failed, wouldn't that indicate that the case against her was insufficient for a full lynch?
I feel like ultimately it's my fault that Knight was lynched, which is a pretty crap feeling given his flip. He was my only confident read.



maybe I should start voting my townreads if my reads are this inaccurate....
From what I can gather, ABR and DC are essentially conftown now, right?
I'm not a fan of how vecna comes across from his exchange with DC 12 hours ago.

[eyestott]

Well, if there were two solid opportunities for a Maria lynch that both failed, wouldn't that indicate that the case against her was insufficient for a full lynch?
I feel like ultimately it's my fault that Knight was lynched, which is a pretty crap feeling given his flip. He was my only confident read.



maybe I should start voting my townreads if my reads are this inaccurate....
From what I can gather, ABR and DC are essentially conftown now, right?
I'm not a fan of how vecna comes across from his exchange with DC 12 hours ago.

[eyestott]

from my perspective:
conftown [IC, ABR, DC, steyotet]
potentialscum [kickflip, boil em mash em stick em in a votecount, I've just met a girl named, lilitu demon, mysterious as the far side of the moooooooooooon, the whispered one] (chkflip, votato, maria, Lilith, farside, vecna]
of those 6, half are town, half are scum.
reads in order atm are:

Lilith
votato
farside
chkflip
Maria
Vecna

these will likely change when I finish catchup. Gonna finish catching up D2 then vote.

[eyestott]

I have a rose.
So this confirms the 3 guns now, right?

[eyestott]

I know youre probably not gonna believe this, but ill stick to it I was still very much suspecting at least a somewhat rational approach to this from scum. Not claiming gun whatsoever was a huge fuckup that might still cost them the game.

Isn't this a paradox then? Like, why would scum!eyestott, as the last person to claim, claim a rose, thereby confirming the three claimed guns, unless he was NOT somewhat rational?
And following the same logic, in a scum team of any three of us, why would the last scum to claim, claim a rose?

[eyestott]

The only conclusion to make is that either the scumteam is devised of irrational players, the last scum to claim isn't cooperating with their team, or the scumteam is fine with confirming three players as town.

[eyestott]

VoteCount 2.3

Vecna [3] - farside22, MariaR, lilith2013
votato [1] - chkflip
lilith2013 [1] - votato

Not Voting [5]

- Iconeum, Vecna, eyestott, Albert B. Rampage, DonCorleone

With 10 alive it takes 6 votes to be chosen.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2020-05-12 15:35:31)

Wait, I'm not already voting Vecna?
Oops
VOTE: Vecna

What’s your solve vecna?

I honestly think any solve is gonna involve MAX 1 in (Eyestott Votato)

Maybe im just stubborn because ive been townreading those two since the beginning and I want to be right.

I think Chk is only scum if Maria is scum, but I have no real strong reasons for that besides the way maria latched onto me in her catchup for voting and unvoting chkflip. I still think that mightve drawn her attention for partner reasons, and chkflip has been completely utterly unphased by anything ive thrown in his direction regarding this.

a bit behind. this post really struck me, because I also think steyeoat and votato are town. Yet we are two people who were almost universally scumread early in the day yesterday. And Vecna is 100% scum here. Don't let him escape by using dumb arguments and AtE. Scum!vecna latched on to the two most likely mislynches early in the day. Just like he latched onto the actual mislynch late in the day. He conveniently townread all three of us, hoping to get towncred post-flip. To me this clears myself and ayeschott. I'll put myself out there and say that if vecna flips town ico should vig me. If i flip town, spare tneysott

Also, DC, in what universe could (me, eye, chk) be the scum? I've hard defended eye and been pushing chkflip hard the whole game. Super obviously. They're the two players (along with farside) i have the most associations with. Do you really think we would make it that obvious?

I was thinking the same thing, votato

[eyestott]

i was brought to the brink and back again before I had a chance to do anything. wth just happened
This just solidifies Maria and Vecna as scum for me even more.

[eyestott]

Vote: Donkey

[eyestott]

damnit, you two screwed up my bit