Townstumps Mafia (Endgame)

[jjh927]

No, Titus is more likely scum than you are

[jjh927]

There's no silly dance here

If there's a single post that explains your argument then you can quote that

I don't know what you think is your most convincing point here



From my perspective your arguments are spread out across many posts. There is a lot of noise and I think if I go through your posts and counterargue you will be in a position to simply disavow the argument as it is a throwaway one-liner

[jjh927]

In other words, I think there is literally nothing to work with as to the primary reason for which you scumread Moon

[jjh927]

No, Titus is more likely scum than you are

Lol. Don't try to appease me. I actually follow the thread.

Right now I am strongly leaning towards a Titus/House scumteam based on House's efforts to move the elim away from Titus

I have two scumreads of similar, but not equal strength, with high probability of being partners

[jjh927]

Is that it then? It is indeed just POE? You do not have a reason for why Moon is scum beyond that?

[jjh927]

It doesn't look game solvy to you? Okay

I was trying to engage with a scumread and you gave me literally nothing in return, so I continued to press because that's what I do when people dodge a simple question

[jjh927]

What looks "game solvy" to you? What do you expect from a town player when they try to engage their scumread on something and they keep dodging the question, but they want that answered in order to pursue a line of reasoning? Should I have allowed you to dodge the question and gone off to do something else?

[jjh927]

Right cool so the only way to engage with a player is to look at their iso, got it

[jjh927]

I asked you for something you still haven't given me

Is your moon scumread entirely POE or what? Do you actually believe he is scum?

[jjh927]

I asked you for something you still haven't given me

Is your moon scumread entirely POE or what? Do you actually believe he is scum?

[jjh927]

Oh ok. Well who would you vote for then?

I would vote for jjh (obviously). I would honestly vote for most of the thread tbh.

A consensus d1 elim and a consensus d2 miselimination doesn't tell me much besides the fact that scum are driving the eliminations.

Does this look like town!Titus VCA?

She doesn't have any viable mislims left because the net is closing

@EE, Can you explain how we're at autowin here?

Don't ask mechanical questions of the stumps

I'll ask what questions I want to. They can shut me down if they want.

My guess is they're overlapping their reads with guesses as to the setup rather than an autowin.

My theory is NK15 was consensus because the other option was you.

We lead into this

It just isn't the kind of VCA we get from town!Titus

We can look at the votecount

Vote Count 1.FINAL

Not Known 15 (7):

mastina, Free Money Free Tea, Mia and Maya Fey, DrippingGoofball, nomnomnom, Not_Mafia, Moongrass,

Moongrass (1):

Gamma Emerald,

Free Money Free Tea (1):

Titus,

Mia and Maya Fey (1):

Not Known 15,

Titus (1):

jjh927,

nomnomnom (0):

jjh927 (0):

House (0):

cyrus62 (0):

mastina (0):

Not_Mafia (0):

Gamma Emerald (0):

DrippingGoofball (0):

No Euphemization (0):

Not Voting (2):

House, cyrus62,

With 13 alive, it takes

7

to euphemize and

7

to have no euphemization.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2021-06-17 17:00:00). At Deadline, currently No Euphemization will occur.

A Hammer has been achieved!

Not Known 15 has been made into a Euphemism Day 1.

He was:

Spoiler:

Mafia Informed Commuter Enabler

Informed Commuter Enabler

You are aware that [Redacted]. If you die, any commuters will be unable to commute.

Then consider the players that unvoted just so we wouldn't get a quick hammer- that is, myself, House, Cyrus-

That's 10/13 players, plus both stumps saying to elim the slot. You can go back and look at everyone's development and opinions on the NK15 slot. And yet what Titus comes out with is a confirmation bias laced theory that does not appear to have factual basis.

[jjh927]

Cyrus, I think you have misinterpreted every angle I have taken and everything I have said over the entire course of the game

[jjh927]

I really wish NSG had said more than that she was fine with a Titus elim tbh

[jjh927]

Conversely, how bad a towngame do you expect me to believe she is playing?

[jjh927]

I also jumped off to prevent a quick hammer

There are two players who actively opposed an NK15 elim- NK15 and Titus

[jjh927]

This is Titus' entire vote history

VOTE: jjh

VOTE: FMFT

This is what my cursory look at the votes tells me if I can't get jjh.

VOTE: cyrus

Sure.

VOTE: FMFT

Or no kill because the pool of suspects was shrinking especially if NM claimed today.

This is still levels of yucky.

VOTE: Moongrass

The amount of forcing he's trying to do to avoid the logical conclusion of a protected kill is baffling.

[jjh927]

I would not be remotely surprised if, over the course of the entire game, Titus had not voted a single scum player

[jjh927]

I asked you for something you still haven't given me

Is your moon scumread entirely POE or what? Do you actually believe he is scum?

[jjh927]

Nope, you haven't said either way

[jjh927]

I asked you for something you still haven't given me

Is your moon scumread entirely POE or what? Do you actually believe he is scum?

[jjh927]

If you can give me literally ANYTHING that couldn't be given to me by a lazy scumplayer who has gone through a list, determined players they think they need to mislim, and called it a POE, then now is the time

[jjh927]

No, I actually think Titus is still more likely to be scum here

[jjh927]

I'm giving her the benefit of the doubt because I sincerely hope she learnt something from a specific game a while ago

[jjh927]

I asked you for something you still haven't given me

Is your moon scumread entirely POE or what? Do you actually believe he is scum?

[jjh927]

I asked you for something you still haven't given me

Is your moon scumread entirely POE or what? Do you actually believe he is scum?

[jjh927]

I'd kinda like to talk to Mastina, NSG, DGB, or either or both heads of the Feys right now, but I don't think any of them are here

[jjh927]

I'd keep quoting but you've made it pretty clear that you refuse to answer

This may harm your defence later

[jjh927]

Norwe, why do you scumread Moon

[jjh927]

I am ready to move past accusing each other of not working with the other

[jjh927]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the main reason people are voting there is because his votes have been in strange places and a lot of the progression has happened 'off-screen'. I think you can see that progression if you look for it, and more importantly if he was scum that was making reads for convenience based on the gamestate then they wouldn't be so abnormal as to get him voted. The jarring aspect to it is playstyle and more likely to come from town

[jjh927]

No that's me talking to norwe because I've stopped trying to communicate with you

[jjh927]

The way I start off engaging with someone is to make sure I understand where they're at, which I do by asking them very simple questions like "what is your main reason for scumreading X" so that I have something to refer back to- it is important to have a definite basis, as mafia is not a static game and reads are not static either.

Instead of responding and giving me that baseline you have berated me for not doing something with the nothing you have given me. You have no intention of approaching this in good faith and so I will simply speak to my townreads and the conftowns about my reads and the reasoning for them

[jjh927]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the main reason people are voting there is because his votes have been in strange places and a lot of the progression has happened 'off-screen'. I think you can see that progression if you look for it, and more importantly if he was scum that was making reads for convenience based on the gamestate then they wouldn't be so abnormal as to get him voted. The jarring aspect to it is playstyle and more likely to come from town

I think I called Moon out for the same thing last time I played with her and some people played devil’s advocate but I ended up right

Can you double check that game? You have the advantage here in that you know who Moon is so if this looks like Moon's scumgame to you then that would be helpful info

[jjh927]

I think that would be very helpful

[jjh927]

Mastina says you're the second best here after me at reading her, so you must know that the style of her play and various ranges vary based on her IRL state of mind.


Do you read Mastina's blog when you're playing mafia with her?

[jjh927]

Continuing down with things I can address now;

I don't tend to consider "pocketed town" as something I hunt for. However, if there was any consideration there, there is no way that your defence of NK15 could be considered anything related to a pocket. No other scum have flipped yet and I focus on independent scumreads primarily rather than teams; it is just how this game has played out that I happen to be pushing a team angle at this point in time.

Not sure what point you're making with number 3. I do still think Mastina is still town but amusingly less so than in day 1 despite the inno from NM. If we're gonna talk about meta knowledge stuff, the players that know how to read me in this game are Mastina and NSG. I do not believe you can accurately read me. Nancy is a stretch because Nancy expects me to townread her from her first post and if I don't then she will just scumread me, but that's fine because it means she still doesn't know what I look for which gives me more confidence in my ability to read her.

Most of my read on House right now is based on how he basically went shopping for elims that weren't you and then settled on Moon today. It's fairly gestalt as a read in that sense.

I don't think Moon bussed NK15

[jjh927]

Mastina says you're the second best here after me at reading her, so you must know that the style of her play and various ranges vary based on her IRL state of mind.


Do you read Mastina's blog when you're playing mafia with her?

I am unaware of mastina's blog and partially aware of her IRL issues thanks to the Speakeasy and general discussion.

Usually when mastina has IRL issues, she vlas.

She also doesn't ignore chunks of the game without admitting so usually.

Lastly, mastina put me on that pedestal early on. I objected to it then and I do now, for the same reason I object to House doing it. It provides a convienent excuse to OMGUS if I ever call them scum.

Her blog is in her signature, and it is worth being aware that over 'business as usual' Mastina's IRL state of mind will fluctuate.

When I am placing Mastina in early game, I take a look at the nature and frequency of the posting in her blog, noting that if she hasn't posted in a long while that is a bad sign. Her level of general motivation is a predictor for the level of motivation she can put into a mafia game. Town!Mastina has a higher level of motivation than scum!Mastina. Compare the level of effort with the expected level of effort based on the blog and you have an accurate Mastina read

[jjh927]

Continuing down with things I can address now;

I don't tend to consider "pocketed town" as something I hunt for. However, if there was any consideration there, there is no way that your defence of NK15 could be considered anything related to a pocket. No other scum have flipped yet and I focus on independent scumreads primarily rather than teams; it is just how this game has played out that I happen to be pushing a team angle at this point in time.

Not sure what point you're making with number 3. I do still think Mastina is still town but amusingly less so than in day 1 despite the inno from NM. If we're gonna talk about meta knowledge stuff, the players that know how to read me in this game are Mastina and NSG. I do not believe you can accurately read me. Nancy is a stretch because Nancy expects me to townread her from her first post and if I don't then she will just scumread me, but that's fine because it means she still doesn't know what I look for which gives me more confidence in my ability to read her.

Most of my read on House right now is based on how he basically went shopping for elims that weren't you and then settled on Moon today. It's fairly gestalt as a read in that sense.

I don't think Moon bussed NK15

Logical problem I see here. You call House shopping for an elim that isn't me as scummy and calling it a gestalt read. That sounds like a fancy way of saying that you're considering me scum when reading House. Why is House scummy for it but not the hydra? Both are townreading me very hard.

While I admit my past of reading you wrong, your fallacy of that others read you well so they're right is a fallacy. Those could very well be pocket attempts.

I do like the softening of the mastina read, despite the clear. Someone speculated NM could have a disloyal role. A jailkeeper would create a false innocent on that. The fact you are still hunting rather than accepting bumps my read up on you a bit.

It basically is a fancy way of saying that I am considering you as scum when reading house, but I am also considering Moon town. The Fey hydra is town completely independently.

NSG and Mastina know what my meta looks like. I'm not talking shit when I am saying this is exactly my classic townplay; NSG and Mastina are happy to take the bet that my scumplay has not jumped to the point where I can mimic this. If you want to make the argument that I am scum here, then the argument is not that I have managed to pocket NSG and Mastina- it is that I have managed to accurately mimic my active towngame over multiple day phases.

I am the person who speculated NM could have a disloyal role.

[jjh927]

Jesus fuck what the hell are those Cyrus posts

[jjh927]

You know what

VOTE: Cyrus

[jjh927]

I think Cyrus could be partners with anyone, actually

[jjh927]

Players who are not good as scum will frequently bus without thinking of the ramifications or what they actually get out of it in terms of risk/reward

[jjh927]

I wish the happy face mafia mafia PT was open so I could quote things from it, but basically I find that because day 1 scum elims give town so much momentum and everyone is so clued in to bussing as a concept, bussing day 1 is an awful play that at best will shift the pressure to win the game singlehandedly as a deepwolf onto a scum player who doesn't know what they're getting into

[jjh927]

That's assuming both flip town, I think we're at a critical point in the game where a town flip today means a loss, which I've said lots of times in different ways.

We're 10 players. 8 on 2. There was no kill last night and the previous night had a really strange kill in nom. We have 2 PRs that were selected by the treestumps and are presumably as powerful as you can imagine, neither of which have died. I think this is a town win on a scumflip, but it's certainly not a scum win on a town flip.

[jjh927]

bring it but this will prove that jjh is scum like i thought maybe with titus moon or house.

Do you mean your flip? Your flip will prove that I am scum? Like you thought with. . . *checks notes* literally every player in the current POE other than you?

[jjh927]

We're all free thinkers here

I'm sure you independently came to the conclusion that everyone who could possibly be an elim today could be scum and aren't just saying it to justify your votes

[jjh927]

We're all free thinkers here

I'm sure you independently came to the conclusion that everyone who could possibly be an elim today could be scum and aren't just saying it to justify your votes

You should just join your buddy Moon on me instead of pushing from the sidelines.

I'm voting Cyrus now and I'm not sure of your alignment

[jjh927]

bussing day 1 is an awful play that at best will shift the pressure to win the game singlehandedly as a deepwolf onto a scum player who doesn't know what they're getting into

Hey, i bussed day 1 and day 2 consequently in a previous game and won singlehandedly as a deepwolf.
It ain’t as stupid as you think!

Did you know what you were doing when you did it

[jjh927]

We're all free thinkers here

I'm sure you independently came to the conclusion that everyone who could possibly be an elim today could be scum and aren't just saying it to justify your votes

You should just join your buddy Moon on me instead of pushing from the sidelines.

I'm voting Cyrus now and I'm not sure of your alignment

That's not what every post that isn't a direct challenge to vote me screams.

3144 was directed at Cyrus if you got confused

[jjh927]

I can think of at least 3 other things not mafia could be

[jjh927]

Well, for a start, the normal hider doesn't protect itself from anything other than killing actions, and can be roleblocked

[jjh927]

If I was a stump I would have picked weak babysitter

[jjh927]

Well, for a start, the normal hider doesn't protect itself from anything other than killing actions, and can be roleblocked

A hider isn't present at his place. He can only be targeted at his new place. He could only be killed if he was killed along side the very townie he was hiding behind.

Yes but he could be roleblocked

[jjh927]

Honestly, I don't think this is helpful

It would be nice if tomorrow, whichever stump came up with NM's role, and they should probably know which one they are, should give us whatever information they think we need. I don't really trust NM as a person to give us enough but not too much

[jjh927]

Fwiw I think it's possible that the commuter enabler is a red herring where if we were to have elimed the slot on day 3 rather than day 1 then the flip of a commuter enabler would cast doubt on past innos if NM's innos are indeed no results

[jjh927]

What happens if scum are commuters and a Hider hides behind them?

Action fails

Action fails on commuters of either alignment

Also worth noting that the normal hider's action does not fail when it targets scum

[jjh927]

NK15 flipped commuter enabler so any commuters have been unable to commute for the whole game

[jjh927]

The scumteam could have anywhere between 0 and 2 commuters and it wouldn't mean a thing because none of them can commute regardless

[jjh927]

Titus, you're missing that I think scum would have made the assumption that NM was a weak hider or similar based on how telegraphed his targets were, and so if they wanted to remove him they would need to go for his target

[jjh927]

I think that considering this is a role that one of the stumps decided on with full creative freedom to come up with something crazy, and also NM is a massive troll, so ultimately I would be disappointed if we could figure out what his role was

[jjh927]

NM could be a loyal combined doctor checker

Scum might conceivably have shot someone else

Something I haven't considered might have happened (likely option when you consider that nom was killed N1)

[jjh927]

Titus, are you accounting for the wagons as they built rather than just the end result? Almost everyone in the game was on the NK15 wagon at some point

[jjh927]

Cyrus, what is your read on Mia and why

[jjh927]

Scum would target Mastina for a nightkill because Not Mafia said he would target her and scum had all the same reason you have right now to suspect he is a weak hider

[jjh927]

Weak hider combined doctor would be memes actually

[jjh927]

He was saying who he was targeting

[jjh927]

Cyrus, what is your read on Mia and why

i hate that slot i cant pin a read on it to save my life.

Shame

I was just thinking about how it's kinda strange you haven't had any substantial reads on anyone who wasn't elimable

[jjh927]

He was saying who he was targeting

Yes, but that foundation applies as much n1 as it did n2. If there was enough evidence to suspect notmafia of being a hider n2, it existed n1 and then the nom kill makes no sense. A gamma kill would have happened instead.

The nom kill makes no sense regardless of not mafia's role

[jjh927]

Other than to frame Moongrass

In case I die, I'd like to highlight this post

Your entrance posts seem a little more proactive than what I thought would be normal for you NK15. That yawn in particular seemed like posting for the sake of posting. Am I wrong?

if NK does indeed flip scum then this post is likely coming from scum distancing early given the seemingly laser precise reasoning on some early game comment, and that comment also sticks out in the fact that

Moongrass does not have a game played with NK15 in her topic history

. So this is potentially some hard TMI right there.

[jjh927]

Hey look at Cyrus' first post in day 2

so lets see who nonom was saying was scum.

[jjh927]

Honestly, I think the nom kill can be explained entirely by Cyrus being noobscum

[jjh927]

Never mind he follows up with this

seems like a frame up. who was pushing for moon the most?

[jjh927]

Never mind he follows up with this

seems like a frame up. who was pushing for moon the most?

He checks the thread temperature before doing so though.

And then puts Moon in his poe almost immediately anyway

[jjh927]

I'm just rereading the fake guilty from House on Cyrus and I feel it looks really bad for both parties

[jjh927]

Like, I'm sure House knows his way around scum theatre but I think Cyrus would fail the audition for background tree #5

[jjh927]

At any rate Cyrus is pretty much lockscum

He doesn't have a read on Mia but they're not in the POE
He exclusively seems to scumread all possible elims in a given day and not really have any opinions outside of that

[jjh927]

But seriously, House faked a tracker guilty on Cyrus, who reacts with a bit of nonsense and the assertion that it's a fake guilty without even considering that House could be scum OR claiming a role

How does that happen organically

[jjh927]

This then happens over 100 posts after House reveals it was a gambit

VOTE: house there's a reason I went no where you dumb jerk I'm town . I cannot believe out of every one to check you checks me. You could have checked moon or Titus whom . Was the two top cases left. I didn't vote why . I bloody 2nd guided my self because of how long it took. Ge . Cyrus be scum . Even though because he simply doubted him self. Thire are people who are scummy . But I'll check him because he unvoted. I find houses actions completely anti town and here by think he did . The actions and made up this so called gambit to get a misllynch.

[jjh927]

I think Cyrus might have checked the scum PT a bit late or something

[jjh927]

I would also posit that his scumbuddy may have told him he was being a bit obvious about the nom kill at the start of day 1, hence the backing off

[jjh927]

Is the Cyrus wagon still just jjh and Titus?

I think so but you can fix that

[jjh927]

Oh cool

[jjh927]

I mean, that's not how quick nights work

[jjh927]

You've read the recent pages and don't think that's town!Titus?

[jjh927]

I think Cyrus could be partners with anyone, actually

Usually that's a sign that they're partners with nobody.

I do not like the cyrus elimination compared to House/Titus eliminations.

It feels like you had Titus and to a lesser extent House dead to rights--I honestly thought your cyrus vote was baiting Titus, and that Titus took the bait, and that you were going to reveal that it was bait for Titus, because I was that sure you were on the right track with Titus's desperation as it were and that the sudden emergence and willingness on her end to spontaneously wagon cyrus was more proof of her being scum.

That particular quote was because partners were being ruled out based on how Cyrus interacted with them and I don't think he has much discretion in his voting patterns

And nah, this is a very cooperative Titus that is most likely town aligned

[jjh927]

Which head is that

[jjh927]

I'm guessing koba

[jjh927]

For the love of God NM...

[jjh927]

I do think this will flip scum but honestly we needed the conversation time here and you take that away for the sake of your bit

[jjh927]

I'm just rereading the fake guilty from House on Cyrus and I feel it looks really bad for both parties

Yeah, we totally choreographed that exchange.

Like, I'm sure House knows his way around scum theatre but I think Cyrus would fail the audition for background tree #5

[jjh927]

Honestly I think it's pretty memes that the wagon includes all of me, Titus, Moon, and House

[jjh927]

I do think this will flip scum but honestly we needed the conversation time here and you take that away for the sake of your bit

I think we shouldn’t rush this day. I haven’t even eaten yet. And just kind of skimmed the 10+ pages and want to go over them more thoroughly later.

Too late NM hammered it after house E-2ed knowing that NM would hammer it

[jjh927]

E-1ed, rather

[jjh927]

Yeeeeeeeep

Particularly just as the winds were turning towards a House elim

[jjh927]

I'm gonna go to bed and hopefully I'll wake up to a scumflip

[jjh927]

Well, called it in the dead thread so that's something

[jjh927]

I think NM is the single largest contributor to the town loss here

[jjh927]

Also some examples of possible normal roles

Although I'm pretty disappointed with the stump roles too

They lacked imagination

Weak babysitter
Loyal friendly neighbour
Jack Of All Trades 1-shot alien 1-shot babysitter 1-shot bodyguard 1-shot checker 1 shot activated bulletproof 1-shot cop 1-shot detective 1-shot doctor 1-shot follower 1-shot friendly neighbour 1-shot fruit vendor 1-shot gunsmith 1-shot jailkeeper 1 shot motion detector 1 shot mailman 1 shot neapolitan 1 shot neighbouriser 1 shot psychologist 1 shot PT cop 1 shot roleblocker 1 shot rolecop 1 shot rolestopper 1 shot role watcher 1 shot tracker 1 shot vanilla cop 1 shot voyeur 1 shot watcher

[jjh927]

I think that a good chunk of this setup was defined by elitism. Sure we got unlucky with the rand of NM getting the hider. Forcing a troll to play it straight was difficult for him.

People withheld information from those they scumread, putting them behind the eightball and preventing a changing of reads. No one really second guessed their reads but for me and jjh during the day we eliminated cyrus.

No one second guessed the gamma clear.

Pushing back on someone resulted in a scumread. Making the game full of cliques.

Oh 100%

The given POE of me, Moon, Titus, House was all town and the Cyrus wagon was my attempt to work together
An attempt that was foiled by House E-1ing and inviting NM to hammer before we got any real discussion time on this development, given, although NM should not be treated as some force of nature that we can all expect to lolhammer because he is a person who simply purposefully plays in a way that is bad for town and so as a consistent theme I continue to blame NM for the loss of this game

I think I would have continued to TR Gamma tbh because he still looked very towny regardless of the clear- but I also would have completely disregarded the clears after NM flipped.

[jjh927]

I wanted Mastina or NSG or preferably both as stumps because of the statistical likelihood that I roll town and how I was pretty likely to play an active towngame
I overestimated how active NSG would be and underestimated how much people would listen to NSG's read on me

[jjh927]

Honestly, stumping someone because they're hard to read is basically just taking them out of the game

I wouldn't have listened to a word said by any of the players you listed in that category, Jingle

[jjh927]

Also, I can see how being a stump would reduce scumhunting effectiveness, but if you have an adaptive playstyle that doesn't rely heavily on people's evolving reads on yourself then you could still be a powerful scumhunter but with the influence of a conftown and guaranteed survival to endgame

[jjh927]

guaranteed survival to endgame

This is a drawback of the stump role, not a feature imo. A stump never gets the push to reexamine if they're on the wrong path because scum hasn't killed them off yet.

I mean, if you don't get too stuck in the POE mindset then you can reexamine anyway. I don't think I've ever reexamined the game as a consequence of remaining alive

[jjh927]

And he definitely shouldn't have claimed commuter, because that's exactly the kind of role scum could have to counter various disloyal or weak roles and not at all a role that a stump would pick without anything else