Abarat: Days of Magic, Nights of War Mafia (Endgame)

[Shmugen]

Disclaimer: There will be an immediate FoS on anyone who I deem too incendiary. Heaps of rage = heated argument and whining = lack of fun and potential modkills due to post quantity.

VOTE: Llamarble

I believe that vote count there starts the post count.

Post Count: 1

. This could be a good idea for as long as this weak court stuff lasts.

[Shmugen]

Disclaimer: There will be an immediate FoS on anyone who I deem too incendiary. Heaps of rage = heated argument and whining = lack of fun and potential modkills due to post quantity.

Did you look at the playerlist before you deemed this to be a good idea?

Yes. Even the most ragey of players should theoretically be able to rein it in for a day or two, however long this lasts. This new attempt by moderators to impact pacing is one I enjoy. This method of enforcement is strong, but I'm a science guy in real life, I appreciate forceful brevity.

Come thee at me, bros.

Post Count: 2

[Shmugen]

Hahahaha FOSes for rage?

In a game with FATE AND CHESSKID?

LOLOLOL U FUNNY SHMU

You have my unfortunate permission to CHESSKID all over the thread D2 to your heart's content so long as you don't get roleblocked or modkilled today. Unless you're scum, of course, then the field is all yours.

3

[Shmugen]

I am town and glad of it.

VOTE: Llamarble

Why?

Like a good cup of tea, reads need to develop with time. Your name had yet gone unmentioned and I felt it more profitable to vote someone new.

I did not vote Fate for God-King. Part of the fun of playing with Fate is never quite knowing if he's up to something. Fate being confirmed town means he doesn't get challenged on his reads nearly as much and puts too much power in the hands of a persuasive browbeater. That and if I had been scum I did not want to put up with our insufferable HUEHUE Lord.

Unvote, Vote: Shinori

. Ick, dude.

4

[Shmugen]

The stakes are too low for Magna to be making that up. One of the three is scum? Where's the scum motivations in that kind of shenanigan. If he's scum and we believe him wholeheartedly (aint gonna happen), we'd lynch 3 town and then one scum. More likely we'd lynch one, one would get vigged if such a role exists, and if none flipped scum we'd kill Magna. It seems possible that Commexo could be among the 3, but things are usually against the SK anyway, I doubt a renowned mod like Hito would do such a thing. Magna is not always the most fun to play with, but this gambit is too high risk low reward for scum to pull off.

I'm torn on Shinori. Am I really just thinking he's too new and would pull those sorts of extreme reactions? Some of you have townreads on the slot, why so?

5

[Shmugen]

Note how the parenthetical implies there's no way we'd waste 3 lynches on something like this without confirmation of MoI's towniness.

Put it like this. A cop targets MoI, finds he's scum. In order to not get instantly murdered and generate some confirmed town, scuMoI HAS to include a scumbuddy in that list. It's a silly low-impact gambit for scuMoI.

1. I felt so smooth sliding that fifth post in before the replenishment. Oh yeah.

[Shmugen]

Agar, you've got to read a little better. MoI isn't pushing any kind of agenda, as scum or for policy. He already made clear multiple times that he had no reason to not come forward with his info, so he did, and that's that. Anyone in their right mind would lynch someone scummy D1 over taking a blind shot. Your concept of ML scum is also based on dildos, as, like many have said, we all know the scum have fakeclaims. Pushing someone on knowledge of fakeclaims is pushing someone on how closely they read the rules, which isn't scummy.

2? 3? The kid don't always remember where he's been.

[Shmugen]

Something happened with MoI since 2012 started. I had played with him before, he was a pretty cool guy. Now he gets mean at the drop of a hat. You kinda have to roll with the punches and not take his mean serious.

1

[Shmugen]

I'm falling behind a bit. I should be able to catch up with comprehension by the end of Sunday. My apologies.

[Shmugen]

Fate, not to doubt your intellect or something, but two more posts today will get you modkilled. Just a reminder.

@Chamber - I'm calling Shinori's reactions extreme, flinchy, like someone going through exaggerated motions to not fall on ice. I believe it to be scummy in this instance, but my gut is whispering that it also screams newbie and maybe I'm getting them confused, but my gut's track record on mafiascum is abysmal.

If I were to choose my 1 in 3 from MoI's list, I'd probably pick Bella. Yes, President, I know, but it's not a point that Bella has addressed much other than general disdain for MoI. This is an acceptable response, but I could also easily see it as scum on the list wiping the sweat from their brow that the attention is off.

I'm in agreement with Kareck Walkbird that the leading wagons are all pretty viable. I don't know the history of Llamarble and am always a bit wary of being taken in by too much meta case. I could move to OAFE happily, and even Agar were it not for Shinori being there.

@Ludi. You sadden me somewhat with your asking for protection tonight. Wouldn't keeping yourself off the radar been an all around better choice?

I think I missed one question to me. If I did, kindly re-ask it. Thanks.

People we need more from: Untrod Tripod, Seraphim who is oh so sure of Shinori being town, Flash (minus puns)

[Shmugen]

I. Shmugen

@Chamber - I'm calling Shinori's reactions extreme, flinchy, like someone going through exaggerated motions to not fall on ice. I believe it to be scummy in this instance, but my gut is whispering that it also screams newbie and maybe I'm getting them confused, but my gut's track record on mafiascum is abysmal.

This is a Mina/CES hydra. Anyway, something niggles at me, and I'm not sure if it's cognitive dissonance or just clumsy writing:

I'm torn on Shinori. Am I really just thinking he's too new and would pull those sorts of extreme reactions? Some of you have townreads on the slot, why so?

The first sentence in that quote expresses doubt in your Shinori scumread. The second sentence says you think he might be newbie town overreacting. But the third sentence is asking people why they have townreads on him? Or is the second sentence implying you think he's scum faking it (as a newbie)?

Also, if you're "torn" on Shinori, what makes you want to vote him over your other suspects?

(A viable wagon means one likely to get the person lynched, not one on a person you suspect. Did you misspeak?)

The second sentence is a view into the internal battle of my psyche, unable to decide if he's newbie town flailing against pressure because he feels threatened or if he's newbie scum flailing against pressure because he feels threatened. I have some serious trouble firing on all cylinders early in large themes, I watch people pull scumreads out of what appears to be thin air. I asked if people had townreads to see if they were seeing something I wasn't, to ascertain if I was making a mistake with my vote.

I want to vote Shinori over other suspects because I think that, while the information gained might not be the calibur you'd get from a Llama or OAFE lynch, I think it has the best chance of hitting scum (pending MoI's recent Llama case which I need to read again and absorb). I did misspeak with the viable wagon comment, what I meant is that I felt the majority of the large wagons had decent chances of flipping scum, i.e. the reasons for voting them all feel sound.

[Shmugen]

Day = Good guys, Night = Mafia, Commexo = SK/Third Party.

[Shmugen]

It doesn't feel as likely to hit scum to me, but so long as we get back to Shinori in reasonably short order, I'll join El Presidente Gigante.

Unvote, Vote: OAFE

Mina, back and forth questioning is what helps engage me early in large themes when there's so much going on. Feel free to come back and keep the conversation rolling.

Same at you, Ludi. I still want to know how you thought it was a good idea to call for protection tonight over, perhaps, shutting up and acting normal.

[Shmugen]

The ISO calls to mind a specific scenario. A player, new to mafiascum, is scum and starts the game like any other. The culture differences causes some people to ping onto his reasoning quickly. A shift to defensive play starts. His scummates coach him to get it together, which he does, and then proceeds to lose his temper. Especially with his wagon around half full at max, anger at being wagoned is not something productive. What are you seeing?

the OAFE wagon is L-5, I don't see a speedlynch coming around.

[Shmugen]

Yes, confirmation bias, etc. etc, hence the asking other players to explain townreads.

[Shmugen]

So you're always a miller, but you can track once per killed Night member and once for free?

Hm. Millers are hard enough to believe and impossible to prove, but a miller that takes night actions?

[Shmugen]

Ah. Yes. Missed a word there. Carry on.

[Shmugen]

@Magna - I apparently missed whatever earlier discussion there was about millers with power roles. I'm pondering where to move my vote, that will happen this evening.

[Shmugen]

Heya Quilford, welcome to the party.

Unvote

@Nuwen - Is it the bad puns? Or is it that OAFE is testable but he immediately tried to keep the pressure running?

[Shmugen]

VOTE: Staeg

This is what I've been looking for. A good wagon on an established player with solid reasoning and tasty wagon analysis after.

[Shmugen]

The motivating factor was the difference in Staeg-Fate interaction from the norm. The point that took that factor and converted it into a vote was Quilford's post, minus the portion about setup speculation. I didn't have a problem with that. There's been a lot of wagon hopping this game, true, but apparently we aren't allowed to lynch Shinori today.

[Shmugen]

So, ideally, we send a Night member whom we decide on based on thinking they have some other power, like Staeg's roleblock.

@Shinori - Don't you worry. Tierce will talk and then some.

[Shmugen]

Keep in mind that Staeg was informed when you begin to wifom who he was distancing/bussing.

[Shmugen]

@Magna: It means that in addition to 'Staeg was distancing from this person' or 'Staeg was bussing this person' we have 'Staeg knows something about this person' to deal with. I think it's unlikely that they had specific information on roles, as none of the flips look like 'Oh man, we'd better get rid of this' scum mentality, but it is another angle to consider.

I'm kind of bummed this sending thing cropped up so early. The best way to use it would be to massclaim, and that's just silly.

[Shmugen]

I do, had he lived long enough. Luckily he only ever voted 4 people. Shinori, OAFE, Anxiety, and UT. OAFE likely had nothing to do with whatever he knew. UT may have been a throwaway, but maybe not. Tierce will make herself known in not too long. Shinori was a viable lynch all day yesterday, and Anxiety was an afterthought, an attempt to get something going. Whatever info Staeg had, it probably didn't play a role in D1. It IS something to keep in mind though as more people flip.

VOTE: Chesskid

I'm starting to think we want to pass on the vanilla-izer, unless we have a volunteer? Someone who is Hated, perhaps? Going once? Going twice?

[Shmugen]

I can feel myself mentally disengaging. Someone please drag me back into this with some questions.

[Shmugen]

Fate/Regfan.

Next question please.

[Shmugen]

I'll do what I can to catch up tonight on where I stand with my vote currently on Tierce and MattP's arrival, but first, a response to Tierce:

Neither do I like Shmu's affected attitude in counting his posts in-thread. It feels like he's trying too hard. And what the hell is this?In post 74, Shmugen wrote:
In post 52, Llamarble wrote:
I am town and glad of it.In post 27, Shmugen wrote:
VOTE: LlamarbleWhy?Like a good cup of tea, reads need to develop with time. Your name had yet gone unmentioned and I felt it more profitable to vote someone new.

I did not vote Fate for God-King. Part of the fun of playing with Fate is never quite knowing if he's up to something. Fate being confirmed town means he doesn't get challenged on his reads nearly as much and puts too much power in the hands of a persuasive browbeater. That and if I had been scum I did not want to put up with our insufferable HUEHUE Lord.

Unvote, Vote: Shinori. Ick, dude.

4More time spent discussing Fate's IC status (which does not require you to lie or pretend, since it was done before role distribution) than your Llamarble vote or your Shinori vote.

My vote was a kneejerk reaction to Shinori's exaggerated defense. And you are correct, Fate's status does not require lying or pretending.

In post 110, Shmugen wrote:
I'm torn on Shinori. Am I really just thinking he's too new and would pull those sorts of extreme reactions? Some of you have townreads on the slot, why so?...you were voting him. Why did you ask for townreads and newbtown tells?

I was beginning to doubt my scumread. I asked my peers to help clear my head, was I just seeing things? What did they see that I wasn't?

In post 114, Shmugen wrote:
Put it like this. A cop targets MoI, finds he's scum. In order to not get instantly murdered and generate some confirmed town, scuMoI HAS to include a scumbuddy in that list. It's a silly low-impact gambit for scuMoI.Wait, what? scumMoI would get screwed anyway, regardless of Three In One, if he was targeted by a cop, so why is this even worth a mention?

Two reasons. One, I was still under the impression that people thought MoI was scum, not that MoI was town gambitting to get free policy lynches. Two, I was explaining that there was no way to run this gambit as scum that MoI gains something worth the trouble.

As for me trying too hard, the PR post counts were mostly for my benefit. In Polite Mafia, having to go back and check my inbox for my PR was irritating. By putting it in the bottom of my post, I wouldn't get baited into a verbal sparring match or simply lose track.

[Shmugen]

Unvote

Send: MattP

Now that my internet connection is back at home, catchup post tonight.

[Shmugen]

Alright, I think I'm caught up. Tierce certainly needs to post more, but pot meet kettle and all that. I'm still good with sending Matt. His entrance and attitude haven't been top notch, but replacing in can do that to you.

Magna, the main event that happened after I voted Staeg and the second quote was that he flipped. I'm certainly not saying we shouldn't attempt to look for reads. The main reason behind what I said is that I believe a lot of people skipped the 'informed' part of the flip and went straight to the 'roleblocker' part.

Vote: SoO

The vote on MoI is foolish at best. Perhaps Magna has begun reading the series, perhaps he's done some research on his bit of flavor between the two posts. Also, do me a solid favor, Sword, and don't take out post numbers and links when you quote people?

I agree with Reg that Bella could sure as hell use some reads. Sure, you're town, whatever. Work to help the town then? If I had to pick a scum among the three right now I'd choose Matt. Paranoia is telling me he's going to eat the sending in an effort to not get lynched later, some argument along the lines of 'Hey, you guys spent an opportunity making me 'safe'. You don't want to lynch me now, do you?'

[Shmugen]

Another point towards leaving your post links and numbers in the quotes. Besides that, he said he read his blurb. He could have gleaned anything from said blurb, or perhaps he was lying early on about not having an idea what his one in three meant flavor-wise.

[Shmugen]

V/LA from 3 PM Eastern Time to late Sunday.

Also, /in to mod Popular Princess Tea Party with Friends.

[Shmugen]

I could go for sending Bella, anything to force more pressure on her.

Here's a bozo thought to leave you with as I prepare to leave:

@Mod: What would happen if we sent Regfan/Fate? Would they become un-lovers and lose their QT?

[Shmugen]

Well, that was an eventful weekend.

Why do I feel like we'd be better lynching in the 1-of-3 based on Shinori than lynching Tierce today?

Vote: Petapan

[Shmugen]

Consider me worried about the reasons.

[Shmugen]

I had not looked at it from that angle, MoI, but my point stands. If those three are further protected from nightkill, the longer they sit the bigger hassle they will eventually be. Keeping them all alive benefits scum as the game goes on.

This said, the recent posts regarding Tierce, namely that of the uselessness of her informational claim, are more convincing than the 'townTierce gives more effort' argument.

I have a bone to throw in the mix, and I won't feel as bad potentially revealing someone now that the Two-In-One is dead, the Guardian Angel freed up, and the scum roleblocker is gone. I have an ability that I can find very little practical use for as town. As scum it would be great, but if I'm going to get any mileage out of it, I'm going to need the town's help theorycrafting. I am a self-redirector. If I target someone at night, if they use an active ability, they are forced to target themselves. A cop would investigate themselves, a doctor protect themselves, a vig kill themselves, etc. The only practical use I could find for it would be if scum start taunting that they're about to win via a roleblock or something, I could stop the block, but now the scum roleblock is dead. It's not a useful enough ability to be worth protecting at night, and I didn't use it last night as I could do much more harm than good firing blind.

[Shmugen]

Am I the only player on this site with skin tougher than old parchment? Seriously, kids, get it together. People are dicks sometimes, let it slide.

I'll give a Tierce vote serious consideration when I have time to go over stuff instead of just drop by.

Does no one have any input on my claim, or should we all just pretend I never opened my mouth?

[Shmugen]

Huzzah, Hito! I've been waiting for some cracking down. Perhaps between MoI and Peta too.

Unvote, Vote: Tierce

.

With Fate/Regfan gone, I am willing to put my faith in Nuwen, though I still want the 1of3 dealt with sooner rather than later. The analysis of the plant lady claim and what I know of Tiercetown tells me this is a good enough wagon for the day. There's enough players pushing for it hard that analysis will be good on the chance that Tierce flips town.

[Shmugen]

Let the record show that the wagon is Minimum's, and Nuwen totally sold me on it.

[Shmugen]

Something isn't right here.

[Shmugen]

We are quickly running out of town leadership.

Vote: Seraphim

[Shmugen]

Actually, the 1 in 3 is exactly the right thing to do today. We lynch one of them(Bella) and have one of the others (Peta) drop the hammer.

Unvote, Vote: Bella

[Shmugen]

That's somewhat testable. Having MattP drop the hammer on Bella would be better, then.

[Shmugen]

Boosh. Who did you target last night?

[Shmugen]

I cannot counterclaim Peta, but I can potentially claim responsibility for the lack of two kills last night.

[Shmugen]

Considering the actions of today and tomorrow hinge on MoI's 1/3 thing, if it is bullshit and he's town, it is very in his best interest to tell us so when he returns. If he is telling the truth, we're in good shape. One kill last night and confirmed scum lynch today or tomorrow.

[Shmugen]

Whatever we do, it is certainly not before MoI gets back.

@Flash - (Insert new plan here)

[Shmugen]

I think Nuwen tried to convince me and I didn't really get it, but depending on how the 1 in 3 goes, it's going to get sticky. If we let it sit much longer, we're going to have number problems and I'd really like it to be out of the way before we get anywhere near LyLo.

I'm happy with MattP hammering Bella, but I could be talked into some alternate wagon with Magna doing the hammering. Him flipping informed would put this whole 'fake gambit' shenanigan to rest.

[Shmugen]

I did not redirect. I have another ability I didn't mention yesterday where I can make myself immune to the first kill attempt on me at night. With a scum roleblocker down and no evidence of a town vigilante, the only way I'm getting nightkilled is if Night and Commexo work together on me. As Peta did not jailkeep and there's only one role that can stop someone else from dying at night, it seems logical that I am the reason there was only one death last night.

[Shmugen]

@Minimum - Peta had not yet claimed (A MORONIC thing for scum to claim. Any counterclaim and we have our 1 in 3 easy). Peta had not had a very protown attitude, had it not been for the claim I would probably still be recommending it.

@Hindu - Do you think we'll have a better opportunity than this to take care of the 1 in 3?

[Shmugen]

This needs to get done with sooner than later.

Unvote

Here's an olive branch, Hindu. Let's find night or commexo outside the three and have Magna drop the hammer. If we hit scum, hooray. If we hit town, we'll have confirmation that the 1 in 3 is a real thing.

[Shmugen]

Why would we not use everything we have? It's not as though you'd ignore a cop guilty just because you didn't have a townread on someone (situation pending, of course). We know informed roles exist. We have a mechanic today that helps us work through our information. If we absolutely must prove to you that MoI isn't bullshitting us, so be it.

[Shmugen]

That's not what I'm talking about with verification, though I do feel today's unique mechanic is our best opportunity, as the scum will never kill from inside of it and it will only influence things further. We can verify that Magna isn't lying when/if he flips. Staeg flipped Informed, should Magna do the same we'll know.

[Shmugen]

Quite a few demands, considering I'm agreeing with YOUR plan, if only to bring you around. We're going to need you, Hindu. The scum seem content to kill off leadership roles.

[Shmugen]

I don't think so. This would be a major hit to his site-wide credibility if he's town. He either eats it and is tarnished, is scum, or is telling the truth, and considering the high standards he holds others to, it's got to be the third one.

[Shmugen]

I think he's town. Risk/reward analysis has him not gambiting in my mind. I'll go back over him tonight under the assumption he's scum and see if the idea makes sense, but I has my doubts it will.

[Shmugen]

If I were Commexo, and Commexo were bulletproof, I sure as hell wouldn't have claimed bulletproof.

[Shmugen]

If we get down to Commexo hunting being the right play, I'll put in the effort that shouldn't be required to prove my innocence. Namely that I can stall the game out by forcing someone else to target me, ideally someone who will receive proof that their target changed, and Commexo will be forced to no-kill in order to keep suspicion on me.

I have two abilities, I can use one a night. One forces someone to target me, the other makes me immune to the first kill attempt on me each night. It's not quite bulletproof, I admit, but as we have no evidence of a vig, it's damn close.

[Shmugen]

(I'm just making scattered replies to several people right now.)

Tammy, I know you're still online. This isn't quick. What are you afraid of?

Shmugen, sorry, but I actually think your claim makes you MORE likely to be Commexo. If you think you were targeted last night after you'd claimed redirector, then you'd have basically been outed scum to the other team unless you tried to justify it after the fact. Actually, the protown move would have been to keep your mouth shut and try to eat another nightkill. (That said, given Nuwen's attack on Tierce, I think she made a lot more sense as a capital-N Night kill target than Shmugen would.)

Questions for you:

How would you compare your play in this game to that in Chrono Trigger?

What exactly makes you so sure that scum can't use actions and kills on the same night?

Given that you've already revealed your abilities, can you fullclaim your role and character?

Lastly...so you think MagnaofIllusion is town? How much more town do you find him than Bella, Matt/Tammy, or both?

====

1. Similar. In Chrono Trigger I was much more engaged in the theme, but the idea of claiming an ability but leaving out details to see what happens is something I did both here and there. There I pretended to control a key mechanic early in the game which was a bald-faced lie, here I revealed one of my abilities and didn't reveal the other. It may well have been the better move to shut up for another day, but given the lack of town ability to prevent kills as indicated in the Two-In-One's PM, the missing kill could easily have been on me. I'd rather be in the Commexo or Town pool than have everyone ambiguous on me.
2. I've had a bit of a rough week, if you could remind me the context in qhich I said scum can't action and kill, that'd be helpful.
3. I see no reason not to. I am Malingo, the Geshrat. I learned spells from an evil wizard guy, they are both active abilities. The redirect is called Reflector, and the self-protect is called Feather-Steel.
4. I've done no reading on Tammy yet. I still have a slight suspcion that Matt offered himself up to the Vanilla-izer yesterday for towncred. I trust Regfan more than I trust Fate when it comes to Bella, mostly because Regfan made a case and Fate said No. I don't think Magna's play has been really town, I just don't see the gambit coming from scum. I'd be happy to see him once the 1 in 3 stuff is decided.

5. The question as to whether or not I can be confirmed in this manner is better asked to the Mod by whatever player may remain who thinks they are capable.

[Shmugen]

If there's a namecop, that would work. I was not thinking regarding using active/factional abilities in the same night.

I also did not ask Hito about misleading results as I had not considered a namecop. The more I think on it the more I believe there is no real way to verify the redirect unless I randomly target someone and claim that I did so, have them be a namecop and be able to report that their target was Malingo.

Regarding best strategy, I think the town is still torn about the 1 in 3 information. Torn enough that nothing is getting done about it. Flipping Magna would prove once and for all that he was informed, and we can proceed. I'm happy enough with the plan to have Quilford or Tammy hammer Bella, but if Magna dying is what it takes to get that rat's nest cleaned out sooner than later, I'd do that too.

[Shmugen]

Wow. Man have I ever been leading you down the wrong track with this argument. Once I'm done moving I'll find where I went wrong, probably around Peta claiming, but I don't redirect people on to me, I redirect people back onto themselves.

[Shmugen]

I realized it when I read my role PM when I joined the game. I apparently forgot right around the time I mentioned being confirmable through redirecting. My memory was jogged when we talked about jailkeeping interfering, I recalled then that it was my self-protect ability that was interfered with by blockers, I was trying to figure if the jailkeeper who blocked my redirect would then be free to choose whomever they wished.

As for what I should have asked the mod vs didn't, this is my first time with any kind of redirecting role that would cause conflicts. I didn't ask because when I remember what the ability actually is, mistakes don't make sense, minus cops of varying sanities. A cop would find themselves innocent, a mafia cop would find themselves guilty, a watcher would see me visit them which I could then explain, etc.

For the record, I am embarassed I got mixed up.

[Shmugen]

Reflector is the name.

Paraphrasing, it was made exceedingly clear that roleblocks come before my self heal in the order resolution.

[Shmugen]

I rather obviously lapsed on what my reflector ability did. Had I remembered, I would have not gotten it incorrect. There is no further sneaky Shmu play like you've seen elsewhere. All my cards are on the table. I have used Feather-Steel every single night.

[Shmugen]

The catchup continues. Luckily, with Magna still gone, I have some time. Tomorrow night, hopefully, otherwise Sunday.

[Shmugen]

Catchup coming tonight, but I have a question. What am I missing here? Peta's claim is ridiculous from scum, mind bogglingly bad, and Magna has no reason to lie. Thusly and therefore, we lynch Bella and have Tammy hammer. If Bella's town, Tammyscum dies and if Bella is scum, dead scum. I guess the only person with this answer is Flash?

[Shmugen]

At this point, the 'real Doctor' would be in a 1v1 trade position with one of the two remaining members of Night. An easy trade to make.

As for myself being unprovable, that is likely the case. It would take more claiming that it is worth at this point to test it.

[Shmugen]

I don't quite understand the trepidation for you of the 1 in 3, Tammy. Informed status isn't going to be the same for each type of player. Gamma knows of a name and Magna doesn't, Gamma knows about 1 person a lot and Magna knows about 3 a little. If your goal is to scumhunt as normal, you can play a huge role in getting this game back to that point. You hammer Bella. If you both die and are both town, we kill Magna. That's 4 night scum down in 4 days giving us foreseeably 1/1/6.

@Peta: Why have Tammy drop the hammer if you think Magna is scum?

[Shmugen]

Magna: when looking at game balance, don't forget how super gross Befouler is.

[Shmugen]

You're a good man, Gamma, and thorough.

[Shmugen]

How is this not an amazing place for you to be in? Each and every one of you should be ecstatic that we have a guaranteed scum lynch today, and you're all pissy and moany about it. We can even make sure you live till tomorrow, Jailkeeper.

[Shmugen]

I haven't heard a good argument yet for why Magna would lie as scum. Flash's is ALMOST decent, but it's so far off the deep end and ignores a key point. Magna is scum who comes up with a random list of three players as a means of defense against an SK shooting him, as the SK shooting Magna would mean town doesn't lynch in the three ever. Crazy, but sure, okay, except that the second Magna flips and isn't informed, those three are back on the table, in addition to the steaming piles of WIFOM available if his list is chosen at random. He could put one night in there, he could put in two and a town, he could accidentally put Commexo in there, etc.

[Shmugen]

I force you to jail yourself.

[Shmugen]

There is a lot of under the table dealing here. Pot calling kettle black here, but lots of people are hiding a lot of things. Magna won't fullclaim, Peta is telling me NOT to protect him, Flash seems to have something. I don't want Mrs. Scattamun to claim, but a lot could be cleared up if some people gave up their prideful plans.

[Shmugen]

It has no bearing on the 1in3. It does have bearing on the arguments regarding protective power in the town and the slew of game setup speculation.

[Shmugen]

Are you around now, Quilford?

[Shmugen]

We could have you hammer right now. Still awake?

[Shmugen]

Magna won't fullclaim

Why exactly should I claim any more than I already have Shmugen? I'd like a detailed answer. What about my character name and any other abilities I might or might not have would make you believe more or disbelieve the 1in3 Informed information that I full-claimed on Day 1?

Up until this post, Magna, I had not presumed you to have any further utility in your PM. Your information seemed powerful enough, especially with there still being no counterclaim to Peta. My general point is as it ever was: it seemed as though a lot of people were keeping secrets and hiding information, partially due to other people keeping secrets and hiding information. I think we may be far enough ahead that such shenanigans are hurting us more than they help.

[Shmugen]

My redirection ability is of incredibly limited utility, hence my claiming it in the thread trying to get ideas. My powerful healing ability is unprovable and makes me a fine candidate for any Commexo hunter.

That said, considering that Commexo and Night need to keep me alive for lynchbait, I am free to redirect as I please. Peta, why do you refuse my offer?

[Shmugen]

fwiw, I believe Agar's claim as i have had a pretty decent town read on him..

@Agar , would you be willing to let Tammy hammer Quil?
The reason i ask is that my top scum/Commexo picks fall under Bella, MOI, and Quil...and i'd prefer to lynch one of them in that group...

MattP was null for me, and although Tammy's interaction with Minimum seems a bit odd, i don't have a strong scum read on her...

@Tammy, would you be willing to hammer Quil?

Yes, I would hammer, but as I'm l2 and he's agreed to hammer me I don't think this answer matters anymore.

Either way, he'll be dead tomorrow

.

Please note that this is Tammy claiming scum. If she's town, Quilford would be dead today.

[Shmugen]

This doesn't change the plan, but yes.

If ANYONE wants me to redirect them to themselves, speak now.

[Shmugen]

If Quilford is scum, Tammy, you're still with us.

[Shmugen]

Magna, thoughts on Peta's whole 'don't make me target me' thing?

[Shmugen]

I am not afraid to just target someone and see what happens. Perhaps Flash.

[Shmugen]

Direct my blade, Minimum.

[Shmugen]

You should still tell us who Commexo is. Make the pounding scum is taking complete, Quilford.

[Shmugen]

Vote: Quilford

[Shmugen]

I could go for it, but the chances of Quilford doing what we want him to are null.

@Minimum - just an expression. Hindu, quick question, are you Mrs. Agar?

[Shmugen]

Bah. I guess I'll just self-preserve tonight, the chances of screwing up the roleblock of Mr. and Mrs. Agar is too high.

[Shmugen]

If Gamma is the last night, this is an interesting plan indeed. I'd like to know what you have, Gamma.

[Shmugen]

Did I not say, DID I NOT SAY THAT THERE WERE TOO MANY SHENANIGANS?

I think the best road to a scumlynch today is the Scattamun info

[Shmugen]

My understanding of the Mr. Scattamun claim was that, with one down, they are both now useless.

[Shmugen]

Go on...

[Shmugen]

Though I've posted them plainly, I'll have Gamma do it.

[Shmugen]

I did not redirect. I have yet to redirect, actually.

[Shmugen]

Last night was the first night I could redirect without fear of hitting anyone claimed important. The primary reason I haven't redirected is that there's enough false information flying around without the confusion inherent in redirection.

[Shmugen]

Step 1. Do not use redirect until Fate/Regfan are dead.
Step 2. Target someone with an interesting claim in attempts to alter the game to town's favor.
Step 3. Ask the town for ideas.

[Shmugen]

Step one should be obvious. There was exactly one role that could save the Innocent Child. I very much did not want to mess that up.

I've mentioned it a time or two, but it's not high on my concerns list. I try to employ the Hippocratic Oath as town.

[Shmugen]

Every single night.

[Shmugen]

You're positing that Magna's version of informed was transcendental? It would make sense given the severity of the boneheadedness of his play otherwise.

[Shmugen]

I can help.

Vote: Seraphim

[Shmugen]

I imagine Mrs. Scattamun has read this thread by now and hasn't claimed due to somehow still being useful, but I'm confused as how everyone else came to that conclusion. Today has been conjecture based on who Mrs. Scattamun may or may not have blocked. I'm still for the Mrs. claiming so as to lessen the chances of mistakes.

[Shmugen]

I suppose the only point in favor of the Mrs. not claiming is that the Mrs. would correct us if our assumptions are wrong.

[Shmugen]

Meaning that so long as they haven't claimed, if they do die, it's not as though both Night and Commexo went after them?

[Shmugen]

I think Seraphim would flip Night over Commexo. To anyone thinking my powers spell out me being Commexo, riddle me this: why would I claim them without any pressure? Would that not be suicide for any SK?

[Shmugen]

Do give me a modicum of credit, Seraphim. Should I ever have the good fortune to draw SK, I would not blow such an opportunity claiming as I did. There is also has an exceedingly good reason to not kill me which I'll get into tomorrow.

[Shmugen]

I'm waiting on a question to Hito.

[Shmugen]

I'm about to go to bed, but I should have time in the morning to field questions and perhaps I'll have an answer from Hito.

A very good reason to not kill me is: I have the Key.

[Shmugen]

Two stellar reasons.

1. People want to lynch me. As I do not know what happens when the keyholder gets lynched, it is a scenario I wish to avoid.
2. Night and Commexo have to work together to kill me. Commexo has even less incentive to do this now, as this could result in Night gaining the key. Hito would not elaborate.

[Shmugen]

Correct. Egg on my face, etc.

[Shmugen]

Alternatively, leave the key in safe hands until the last Night is dead.

[Shmugen]

Love you too, Hindu.

My job ends at the end of this week and I move back home away from all my college buddies who have recently moved back in. I'm 95% coasting right now, my vigor should be back up on Sunday.

[Shmugen]

Unvote
Vote: Sword_Of_Omens

Acceptable play today. Further reading is still planned.

[Shmugen]

Unvote

[Shmugen]

I saw a wagon that not only had momentum but was on one of the people I was suspicious of, plus Minimum's bit about how SoO's thinking Bella would flip Night was a scumtell was convincing.

I've caught heat for this in the past, and I think I've finally found out why. I don't see voting people who are V/LA as scummy. On the whole, town is going to be sensible and let the accused attempt to refute some points. Voting someone V/LA might delay the game a bit but isn't a bad practice in my eyes.

[Shmugen]

eh i really should reread this game. kind of feeling swamped because new job+I managed to get into 4 mafia games at the same time like an idiot, but I will make someone a deal.

i will reread through this whole silly game but in exchange you will go through the isos of minimum, seraphim, schmugen, and a player of your choice and give actual godamn details on why you think each is town or scum. if you accept i probably can't do this RIGHT away but will set a self-imposed deadline of saturday night, and can provide details of a read on any player that night as long as you ask before like 10pmish.

also if you're one of the 3 people i listed you can do it too and ignore yourself for even less work.
APPLY TODAY

Minimum: Town. Other than the heaps of anger at MoI, I see pro-town play all over this ISO. Relation wise, I don't see Night-Minimum going after Tierce with the passion we saw.

Seraphim: Mrs. Scattamun.

Flash: Scum(?). There are a lot of posts here that are leading, taunting questions, such as those surrounding Gamma's claim. Giving it a reread I don't see a lot here that I like other than the insistence that Minimum is town.

Flash/Red/Bella/Seraphim are my pool for containing Night/Commexo. Flash, now that we know he was town, what were your reasons for thinking MoI was lying? You were very adamant.

Red/Seraphim are in there due to the Scattamun roleblock stuff and once Minimum returns is probably where my vote is going.
Bella is in there because I can't get over MoI's play. I find it more likely that his info was Transcendental for some reason than that he would do things that so plainly sabotage the town.

Can someone who is skilled at rereads take a look for someone who really toned down their scumhunting around the time Shinori popped/Tierce died?

P-edit: I could go for either.

[Shmugen]

Yes, Sword is Mrs, not Seraphim. I've been sloppy today.

[Shmugen]

Seraphim: Of Seraphim/Red, I'd kill this first. I spy rampant bussing and that reliance on being bad is all kinds of gross. I am correct in my understanding of the kills that one of Red/Seraphim is guaranteed?

Vote: Seraphim

[Shmugen]

Explain. Back when I was complaining for Mrs. Scattamun to claim, a lot of people were sweet on acting under an assumption of who Mrs. targeted and I don't recall you protesting.

[Shmugen]

I'm saying all of a sudden you're adamant that roleblock talk is 'role garbage' when earlier today it was all the rage and I never heard a peep from you.

[Shmugen]

I don't believe Commexo can use the key, no. There's all sorts of foreboding stuff about Night using it explicitly, but never a mention of the third party.

[Shmugen]

Now that I actually bothered to go back and read the PM again, it explicitly says that Commexo can't use it.

[Shmugen]

Not that I'm doing much better, but I am also more happy with my Seraphim vote as time passes.

[Shmugen]

Hindu said he started with it and kept it for a while, I believe.

[Shmugen]

On the flip side, Minimum, ONE of them is guilty. Getting the guilty one will stop one of the two kills each night for good.

[Shmugen]

Well, I'm still here. I still have the Key.

[Shmugen]

Are we to massclaim time yet?

The key does nothing for anyone but night. By not passing it, there is a 100% chance it stays with Day, thusly I have no intention in passing.

[Shmugen]

Hm. Fair enough. I'd need to think it through a bit better, but two confirmed town could be a lot better than one confirmed town at this point.

Red: You pass it if you think you are about to be NK'd, as the passing is the first thing that happens in the order resolution. That's also a pretty big stretch, assuming that there's only one night role that could use the key.

[Shmugen]

The reason I ask is that I did redirect last night.

[Shmugen]

Wishing for Red to claim.

[Shmugen]

Prod-dodging. Question stands.

[Shmugen]

Redirecting Tierce or Quilford would have done things. The Janitor wouldn't have been able to clean the kill, if I understand how the role works, and Tierce would have presumably befouled herself.

[Shmugen]

RC or Flash as Commexo, I think. I redirected RC last night.

Vote: RC

[Shmugen]

RedCoyote, you are at L-1 and have been for some time. Claim.

[Shmugen]

I've seen this sort of behavior out of RC before as scum.

[Shmugen]

To mix it up a bit, try to get something interesting and new to happen.

[Shmugen]

Or by screwing with Commexo/Night if they're allowed to Active ability on the same turn they Factional.

You have no right to be crappy, Sword. I am constantly being asked at daybreak who I redirected. Every day I say I BP'd and every day I catch crap for it. I took a risk and tried to do something. If/When RC flips, we'll know what happened.

[Shmugen]

I'm already SK mislynch bait, of course I'm redirecting. Only way I don't is if Bella flips Commexo, and even then we may need the randomness to win.

[Shmugen]

What's the best way around it?

[Shmugen]

I received the key on Night 3.

I don't know about Tammy-SK, but with Bella looking a lot like bulletproof Night, that would leave Minimum or Flash, Flash being the player I redirected last night.

I suffer here from having never been a third party, would Commexo not have neat active abilities, or would they all be factional?

[Shmugen]

That would mean that on Day 2, the SK volunteered to lose the majority of their powers.

[Shmugen]

I need to reread the entire game soon, but my memory was MattP going 'Fine, I'll go, I'm VT'.

[Shmugen]

I don't think anyone thinks we win with a mislynch today, Bella.

[Shmugen]

Just so we're clear, the 'you're a genius' thing refers to what exactly?

[Shmugen]

It's nice, but in practice it doesn't make a difference. The commexo wincon isn't guaranteed to trigger, but all they'd have to do is not try to kill me and it still works for them.

[Shmugen]

I'm going to be sparse for a day or so, I'll break the trail on the reread after that.

[Shmugen]

As the reread goes, I am fairly confident Bella is Night. Case in a point, anyone here actually Tidal Jim?

Still reading on Commexo. I'm coming around to the concept of Flash over Tammy.

[Shmugen]

I miss CliffNotes. Reading continues tonight.

[Shmugen]

Minimum - Why haven't you voted?

[Shmugen]

They seems to be leaning towards you being the SK. What does they lose by voting? You aren't going to hammer yourself, Tammy's vote is already out there, and I'm confirmed town. Unless Minimum is really unsure about Bella actually being the SK, putting out a vote is safe.

[Shmugen]

I haven't placed a vote yet because that would be a terrible idea. Because the last time I was confirmed town, I voted in LyLo immediately and got reamed for it post-game.

[Shmugen]

I believe we have this game won, so long as you come along with me on one simple assumption.

If we assume that Mrs. Scattamun wasn't killed by both Night and Commexo, then it should follow that Flash is the SK and Bella is Night.

In the original Abarat game, Chris Carrion was a bulletproof Night member, but his bulletproof ability was passive. Tammy lost all her active and passive abilities.

[Shmugen]

I got a little lost when you were working on your confirmed town deductions, wasn't part of it that I can make myself BP and that night is BP?

[Shmugen]

The general point here is that, if this Abarat game is anything like the last Abarat game, Tammy isn't bulletproof.

As it stands, Minimum, you and I have the power to move this right along. If deadline is in 5 days, what say you we give Tammy 3 more days to finish up?

[Shmugen]

Probably you and Quilford, the night members who put in the most effort.

[Shmugen]

I'll listen, Flash, make your case.

[Shmugen]

I don't demand one, as I don't think Bella is the play of the day.

There are some assumptions I'm operating under here, key among them that Magna wasn't lying. A looser assumption is that Magna's group of 3 wouldn't contain both Night and Commexo, which is precisely the idea you're running off of. Your best shot of winning is convincing me you're night and Bella is Commexo, but if you'd rather not, I understand. It's an uphill battle.

[Shmugen]

There are some assumptions I'm operating under here, key among them that Magna wasn't lying.

Its literally impossible for him not to have been lying(ironically right, but still lying).

He didn't flipped informed. To my recollection, he never claimed informed, just to have information. While I'm curious about the role as a whole, his play never looked like he was lying. You were very sure early that he was lying and your reasons for that surety were never convincing, especially after he flipped town.

[Shmugen]

Bah, forgot about the vanilla confirmation. All that says, though, is that your argument isn't outside the realm of possibility.

[Shmugen]

^seconded

[Shmugen]

I'm willing to put the potential loss on my shoulders, Minimum, as Flash is out of time to make convincing arguments.

[Shmugen]

There is a day and three hours yet. I'll be around.

[Shmugen]

There's always some inherent responsibility when dropping a hammer.

[Shmugen]

Hm. How does Night still have a chance?

[Shmugen]

I see. Flash wants us to lynch the non-SK, allowing him to hopefully NK the SK.

Tammy. Do tell how Flash, the claimed Night member, has info about our confirmed townie that the confirmed townie confirms if he isn't night?

[Shmugen]

You haven't explained why he's lying. Unless you're counterclaiming?

[Shmugen]

Hm. Why would RolecopySKFlash remind everyone a role like his existed?

[Shmugen]

I don't buy into the 'flashNight would have fullclaimed at the start of the day'.

I am slightly entertained by the concept of rolecopy SK, but based on the kills as this goes along, this would require the SK to be able to kill and copy the same night, no?

[Shmugen]

Tammy. Any night member would not want Flash to get away with this. BellaNight would counterclaim.

[Shmugen]

Flash is banking on us not lynching the SK today. We miss. SK shoots Flash, Flash shoots SK. SK is hopefully not BP in Flash's eyes, we're in a 3p Lylo with the night member.

Flash claiming Night means that, if the SK is not bulletproof AND we miss lynching the SK today, the SK is made kingmaker.

[Shmugen]

Flash wants the sentence below the one you bolded to be the true one. It's a better shot than his impending lynch was.

[Shmugen]

Let's assume we miss the SK and lynch Minimum today like doofuses. There are four people left. The Night has an idea of who the SK is and tries to kill the SK tonight. If that kill works, then the SK chooses if town of night wins.
If the SK shoots the claimed night member, and we're reasonably sure that Chris Carrion is bulletproof, then tomorrow there are three left, two day and one night, day wins as night has claimed.
If the SK shoots a day member, then there are two people left tomorrow and Night wins.

[Shmugen]

Bella, do come back to us, deadline looms.

[Shmugen]

So, what? Now you think Tammy is actually the SK, Flash?

[Shmugen]

Minamum, you around?

[Shmugen]

I'ma end this day. Any objections?

[Shmugen]

You're still of the opinion that Flash is the SK and making up heaps of things he could not have known?

[Shmugen]

I'll admit that Tammy has made a case that a rolecopying SK COULD exist and, with everyone claimed, could have faked the fakeclaim list. The original LlamaFluff MLP game had a role copying SK, but it could only keep one copied ability at a time. An SK worth his salt would have copied my protection ability ASAP.

[Shmugen]

Bella and Flash should be crossvoting. That Bella isn't is not something in her favor.

[Shmugen]

If Tammy were the SK, it would be supremely easy for her to have let us swing over to Bella and lynch her rather than fight to get Flash lynched. This takes her out of the running for the SK position in my eyes.

[Shmugen]

Which way are you leaning?

[Shmugen]

Truly? Tammy has convinced you?

[Shmugen]

The situation I want is Flash and I voting Bella, Tammy and Bella voting Flash, with Minimum dropping the hammer.

[Shmugen]

I appreciate that, Tams.

[Shmugen]

Hm. I see where you're coming from with the Tammy counterclaim thing. I disagree on the 5 safe claims part, though.

[Shmugen]

Gotta go grocery shopping. Be back inside the limit.

[Shmugen]

I return.

[Shmugen]

Clock's ticking, Tammy.

[Shmugen]

True. Lynch Flash today, lynch Tammy tomorrow, seems clear cut.

[Shmugen]

I still want Tammy to explain some. Don't worry, I have my eye on the clock.

[Shmugen]

Vote: Flash

[Shmugen]

He's still playing games there, Tams.

[Shmugen]

Sorry for poofing halfway through this game, I get behind and I'm a miserable procrastinator. Thanks personally to Hindu for having me once again responsible for some kind of magic key.

[Shmugen]

I'm always town, Gamma. Always. Except for that one month when I really, really wasn't.

Staeg - Did being a dragon mean nothing but for Finnegan Hob?