The Wire, Season 1 - Final Credits!

[Nostredeus]

Agrees with #99.

Thoughts on a Mass Name-Claim? Apart from being fun I actually think it has pro-town utility; there are certain town aligned characters that will be in the game, whilst scum will no doubt have been given fakeclaims it's almost a certainty that they'll be more minor characters (at least comparatively).

Just throwing it out there, also:

#77 / #78 are just wut? Frankly when people think a game is moving at a glacial pace the right post is one that generates chat, anything else rubs me the wrong way.


VOTE: Shadoweh

[Nostredeus]

*shrugs* Probably right on the roles being linked to names thing.

My point about #77/#78 is still true.

[Nostredeus]

Yeah, yeah, yeah it's not a good idea I can see that, shadoweh has covered why; I only suggested it for the sake of names like "avon" or "stringer" who are fairly likely to be in the game and town aligned.

[Nostredeus]

whilst scum will no doubt have been given fakeclaims it's almost a certainty that they'll be more minor characters (at least comparatively).

Er. Have you played in a Farday-modded Theme game before? Because this is almost certainly

not

true. Faraday likes to give the scum nice major-character fakeclaims.

(Psst. Tammy. We're not voting yet. Discuss.)

~ Pless

Evidently no, I haven't.

[Nostredeus]

Nost, why do you agree with 99 but make zero analysis of Shadoweh's 100 which addresses Cerulean's 99?

Because a) I don't understand why potentially playing in such a way that it leads to a quicklynch on a player that is apparently the easiest in the game to lynch is anything but scummy, I'm sure someone can fill me in on that at some point, b) someone asks for RP to be stopped and has frankly legit reasons for asking only to be voted for, I'm not sure how that's supposed to be a town play, although again I'm happy to hear why it is, c) it's the first post of page 5 and part of the response is "Benmage needs moar useful content", the logical extension is that anyone with less useful content/more misleading content should be voted ahead of Benmage; that's not what Shadoweh is doing. Basically I didn't buy post 100 at all, and I don't have any idea why it's supposedly a response to Cerulean's stuff.

You deserve a roundhouse kick to the head for bringing up this stupid idea that had already been talked about as a stupid idea. I know you read the game because you comment on posts 77 and 78, so you saw it brought up, saw the answer, and thought you'd bring it up again.

I brought up a totally different aspect/rationale that hadn't been talked about previously, I've had another look and I still don't see it having been mentioned previously; sure it was a bad rationale and as such I immediately dropped it.

Sorry RP*

@Nost - Stringer Bell / Avon are the leaders of the barksdale org in the show. Outing them would be dumb.

The reason I mentioned it is because, as the leaders, if they don't have a decent PR they'd essentially be confirmed townies; I'm guessing you can at least see where I was going, albeit mistakenly?


@The Mini-L: Why don't you like Great American hero?

[Nostredeus]

Nostredeus is scum. Brings up a bad idea WITH an implicit suggestion, that scum would have minor roles. This reads to me like scum who has a fakeclaim that isn't minor, thereby trying to divert suspicion from himself. Then he gives up the idea at the slightest pressure.

So to be clear what you wanted to see happen there was me to not explain why I thought it was a good idea and then once proven wrong to keep pushing the idea?

[Nostredeus]

It's all about context. You tried to come across non-committed to it so that if you got called out for role fishing you'd have an alibi. But you managed to get swayed by one small, two or three sentence post that doesn't even address that issue solely?

I asked for thoughts, I got some, I responded appropriately. The "one small, two or three sentence post" both addresses the idea and shows it to be a really bad one, frankly you can't expect players to be right all of the time in this game and if you start lynching players for both putting out ideas and retracting bad ones we're screwed.

Also yeah you jumped on the Shadoweh wagon in that post and then Shadoweh convinced you why it was a bad idea. So you voted for the person you presumed to be scummiest and then got convinced by said scummy person (without you changing your opinion on him, as evidenced by your 77/78 is still scummy comment) to change your idea?

I'm not sure I'm reading this right but I think you're saying I was convinced my mass name claim idea was bad by someone I thought was scum, but in reality I should have been unconvinced by it not because it was unconvincing but because it was said by a scum read? If that's not what you are saying then sorry to misrep you but I think I've got that right.

[Nostredeus]

<snip>

Do you happen to be a Tazaro alt bro?

Having only seen season 1 I'm not sure if that's an RP thing that I don't understand or a mafiascum forum thing that I don't understand; either way I don't get it, also either way I'm not an alt.

(Sure thing on the outside of quotes thing, I'll swap styles)

[Nostredeus]

Yeah, I have no idea what's going on right now.

[Nostredeus]

Nost, who do you think had 'more misleading' content then Benmage at the point where I voted him?

In my opinion? Well we do have someone RP'ing; and as someone who can follow the wire I'm sad to say I have to read his stuff multiple times not to mention the clarifications that have been sent his way.

1. ("Contrived Reasoning". Heh, I see what you did there.) Anyway, it was the way he called for it. It was mentioned already and shot down. In his post he showed that he was reading at least some of thread so his call for name massclaim felt very weird to me. And as Benmage correctly noted Omar could easily want specific people dead.

I've actually already answered that question about bringing it back up; is there a reason you are unsatisfied with my answer or are you hoping people wouldn't notice?

[Nostredeus]

v/LA until Sunday night (snow permitting)

(I'm on my phone and can't manage multiple games on the move so any spare time might be spent on the other game I'm in given the size difference and relative impact my absence will have, I'll try and keep up reading wise though.)

I'll answer the questions floating around for me then, you can and should hold me to that.

[Nostredeus]

Okay, I'm back, I'm going to go ahead and post a little bit of stuff but honestly it looks like most players would prefer me not to wall post.

Jason.

So this gambit thing, honestly I'm seeing a lot of explanations for why it was a bad idea but very few for why it makes Jason scum; I like #351, I think it's largely true, but again I don't see how it points to scum motivation.

I think I'm going to have to be hipster here and look elsewhere until someone provides an actual explanation for scum motivation. I do want to see where the questions in #458 go though.


SafetyDance.

I'm finding SD's posts pretty genuine; it's pretty mental to characterise his stuff as just being about SAD's RP, I'm finding players who are doing that to be latching on to this growing bandwagon. The stuff about SD's posturing is pretty decent though, and the 'I am so good at mafia look at my vig game" comment seemed weird to me, I'm probably going to hipster this wagon

for now

too though.


SAD

RP is annoying as balls, but that doesn't make SAD scum just obnoxious as fuck. SAD's stuff is pretty solid except:

Did you have a town-read on TML before your 396, and if so, why? (Is it because of his 390, is what I guess I'm really asking.)

Eh he was on his way to "townland" and I guess you can say that post pushed him over the fence.

Not sure why #390 is townish, seems to be the opposite to me, SAD?


Shadoweh

Haven't seen much from her lately, what we saw previously is bad, I'm unsure what people think has changed, my vote will be moved for now but I'm not at all satisfied here so it might go straight back.


Gunna give myself a few posts/another read through after food before I vote, potentially McStab; see my stuff on SD.

I know there were questions sent my way, mainly because I remember reading them at various points over the weekend, if they were important feel free to throw them out again if not I'll answer any I catch on the re-read and assume any I miss that aren't asked again weren't important.

UNVOTE: Shadoweh

[Nostredeus]

Vote: McStab

[Nostredeus]

So TML has had 0 heat all game which makes me sad, I suppose that can wait until Day 2; I might look at this once TML has more content to consider.

Things that are bad right now:

Chat about this gambit.
Chat about this RP stuff.
Chat about why players talking to other Heads is or isn't scummy.

What does that leave:

Chat about Jason's wall posts having little content; this really doesn't seem to be true, largely because a lot of the wall is responding to this gambit crap so perfectly understandable, the bits that are gambit response do have content such as Jason's defence of his SD scumread which whilst wrong imo is still decent content.

SD's #543 and #544; the latter of which is a pretty good point imo, the former of which is both true and screams town, I'm not sure #548 is a legit response to #543 since SD is under fire, in my experience town go out of their way to defend themselves when under fire, had #543 just come out of no where then maybe.

McStab's #531 is terrible and I'm pretty happy with my vote there, this OMGUS chat also doesn't track imo.

[Nostredeus]

So TML has had 0 heat all game which makes me sad, I suppose that can wait until Day 2; I might look at this once TML has more content to consider.

Do you think people

should

be looking at TML? If so, why?

(Looking at your iso, you seem to suggest that TML's 390 is scummy, but you say nothing as to why. Can't see any other mention of him at all.)

I'm unsure at the moment as to TML's alignment, I am worried about the lack of heat though (I find that players who coast through Day 1 worry me); I don't think there's anything especially bad which is why I'm waiting for more content there before deciding either way. As for #390 my problem is TML saying he/she buys #351 but not voting Jason, personally when I said I liked #351 I gave analysis as to why it didn't convince me (namely that I don't see how it shows scum motivation but rather explains why the gambit was bad) given that TML didn't give that sort of analysis I can only assume TML likes #351 in the entirety which is then at odds with his/her vote on absta. *Shrugs*

[Nostredeus]

Nost, what do you think of Shadoweh's 100?

I've answered that in #149.

[Nostredeus]

Nost, what do you think of Shadoweh's 100?

I've answered that in #149.

has your opinion of Shadoweh changed since then?

Not really but McStab is a better lynch imo.

[Nostredeus]

@Nost: post 582

-TML hasn't really had any negative contribution. His posting albeit low, is pretty good (I don't think he's ever very prolific?). Looks like genuine reading/questioning, and he does give reads which is something you need to be more wary of if someone's coasting(That is coasting and not giving reads). Think you're jumping the gun a little early with the lack of questioning on his spot. Tis D1.

I agree; I said basically exactly the same myself, I think I'd like to hear more from TML, I think TML hasn't done anything terrible, and I think players who go through D1 without heat worry me. There's no accusations here yet, maybe in time depending on how TML comes across to me, I haven't even got the gun out never mind tried to jump it.

[Nostredeus]

New question: why sling non-suspicion onto my particular slot for not being attacked when there's other slots that fufill your criteria? (baby spice, sottyrulez)

I dunno how you can sling nothing onto something, but beyond that the reason I mentioned you was to prevent you from coasting D1; it left you with a choice of coasting and getting called on it or posting and giving me a better read, either was/is good.

[Nostredeus]

@Nost

So this gambit thing, honestly I'm seeing a lot of explanations for why it was a bad idea but very few for why it makes Jason scum; I like #351, I think it's largely true, but again I don't see how it points to scum motivation.

I think I'm going to have to be hipster here and look elsewhere until someone provides an actual explanation for scum motivation.

I do want to see where the questions in #458 go though.

...That's the obvious part. Scum-Jason would do it to somewhat 'confirm' himself "town". If the gambit was genuine, the chance of Jason being scum is verry low.

I genuinely don't understand this part; do you mean the gambit must be scum motivated because it looks townish to make that gambit? Seriously I'm not one of these players who'll ignore other cases or w.e, as I think you know, spell the motivations behind this out to me and I'll give it a fair hearing.

[Nostredeus]

Sorry guys I've been really quite terrible over the last few days; another game I'm in is getting to a bit of a 'crunch' moment and I've been distracted by that.

From what I can gather:


Zdenek is claiming friendly neighbour.
ActionDan is claiming neighbouriser and thought it was somehow a counter claim?

If so ActionDan's claim seems pretty town to me, I'm really not getting the case there? Since there's a lot of votes on that wagon does someone want to explain this for me? I'm kinda just assuming people are going "oh that's a faked mistake, he/she actually knew for a fact that it wasn't a CC", is that basically it?

Surely that's a really weird role to fakeclaim like that? Either way I don't see why Dan's lynch is the right one today and a conviction that it must have been staged worries me.


Zdenek can live, there's no point lynching a friendly neighbour:

UNVOTE: Zdenek

Yes exactly... whats stopping him telling a scum-mate to say that he got 'confirmed' to them during the night? And that scum mate coming out in day 2 and saying yes, he is who he said he was?

that is the point I am trying to make, that you are not getting.

This is weird but actually feels like an honest mistake to me given how easy it is to explain why it's not a problem for town.



I'm gunna see what happens in the next few posts but given my opinion of A-Dan's claim I'm basically re-reading parts of the game with attention given to that wagon.

[Nostredeus]

I corrected myself about your vote not being on dan. It was right below the post you just read off. And if you want to discourage my fos', explain why in a non-selfish manner. Know what, nvm.

unvote; vote plessbians

. BET nobody got a townread on you either... I expect camn & nos to continue lurking convincingly up til deadline. But it's ok, they not lurking cus I called them out, they lurking cus they didn't have time to check the thread for real, ain't that right ples? :rollseyes: .... pedit: well lookie there

You annoy me somewhat.

[Nostredeus]

I'm looking for the case on TGAH but can't find it, I'll keep at it to see if I agree but until then I'd only be sheeping and that won't help you guys establish reads and what not.

I'm open to being convinced though.

[Nostredeus]

I'm looking for the case on TGAH but can't find it, I'll keep at it to see if I agree but until then I'd only be sheeping and that won't help you guys establish reads and what not.

Just how hard are you looking? Lots of people have explained why TGAH is scummy.

Zar and I explained our scum-read in 633. It's basically a combination of the slot's limited activity and overly safe opinions.

Some people (definitely sottyrulez and SAD, anyway - can't remember who else) have also said they find roflcopter's apparent willingness to let Konowa take charge of the hydra suspicious. (I've seen both heads as town once - in Zar's recent Normal game, which I followed a bit - but I'm not familiar with their meta beyond that.) Other people (Benmage, SAD again) have also suggested that Konowa's frustration in 691 seems forced. I'd link, but this stuff isn't that hard to find?

I went back a solid 8ish pages and saw numerous references to TGAH; mainly the second half of your reply and wasn't convinced, but obviously I didn't go back far enough for #633.


#633 is pretty strong, I'm in agreement on the first three paragraphs though the stuff beyond that I'd say is less compelling given the size of the game and the ease with which players (like absta, and myself to a more limited extent) can get lost in it. With regard the first three paragraphs TGAH hasn't responded to them regardless of having opportunity to do so which is bad, I'm fine with a TGAH lynch but would rather we allowed TGAH another opportunity to reply now that the post has been highlighted again; not really for the purpose of clearing TGAH more for the connections it reveals given their content. Since there's a player willing to hammer at deadline I wont hammer now, that should provide for that opportunity.

[Nostredeus]

That feels really town; my real concern is that TGAH had the opportunity to respond to the case pless made in #633 and didn't, that's what I was personally looking for.

[Nostredeus]

That feels really town; my real concern is that TGAH had the opportunity to respond to the case pless made in #633 and didn't, that's what I was personally looking for.

Not a fan of this nor DV's wishy-washiness... but this one more so.

The claim read like capitulation, scum caught... not town with fire that its a mislynch... No even "F"-off, just total blah.

Really? That's interesting, I supported a TGAH lynch based on #633 reasoning and said I'd hold off the hammer until deadline so that TGAH would have chance to answer; it seems like that's exactly what I'm doing, is there something wrong with that plan? If not then I'm not sure why me saying "that felt really town" is any different to DV saying it felt town, can you paint the distinction for me since you think one is worse than the other?

[Nostredeus]

I'm really not seeing how ActionDan wanting to keep the neighbour secret is scummy; he knew full well we could force him to tell us who was in the neighbourhood to verify his claim at any point. I'll happily wait to see what the replacement/you guys has/have to say but frankly I'm seeing AD as town here. Interested in Camn's case (associative tell with absta) but again I'll see what the replacement has to say about it.

Interested to see some heat on SAD, who it's coming from worries me of course. #1016 is weak sauce and seems to be refuted in the quote SAD quotes but maybe that's just me reading it wrong? #1079 is half a wall of "zdenek is looking bad" with the final sentence of the first paragraph being "but nvm all of that because the claim will sort that out" it just makes the first paragraph largely worthless...

[Nostredeus]

I'm really not seeing how ActionDan wanting to keep the neighbour secret is scummy

It seemed more ... needlessly stubborn than anything else, really. Kind of pointless to do as any alignment. But what do you think about his choice of target?

~ Pless

I can see some logic in it, in so far as DV leaned town on TGAH at the end of D1 so TGAH's flip would have allowed AD to tailor his approach in the neighbourhood based on that but I wouldn't give AD credit for thinking like that instead it looks like AD wanted a scum read in the neighbourhood to question.

[Nostredeus]

Guys you're making this somewhat difficult to follow, have I missed something here, why has scotty u-turned on Jason? Has something changed that I'm not seeing? O_o

[Nostredeus]

So, er, maybe it's just me but that entire interaction between Jason and Scotty reads badly on Scotty; it's probably one of the most forced interactions I've seen.

Vote: Scotty

[Nostredeus]

Kuribo - what's your read on Cdb?

Kise - same question.

Not a fan at all of nostredeus' vote on Sotty. Didn't like kuribo's vote on Sotty either but he removed it so that's all good, but nostredeus' vote was awful on all kinds of levels. Nost. I'd like you to explain what you think Sotty!scum has to gain by spending day one hard defending Jason only to turn around and push him today. How was their interaction forced?

I'll make a real post tomorrow or Wednesday as will other head but now *sleep*

I dunno what to tell you here but frankly scotty comes in with

"Vote jason"

and demands a response to that vote, jason responds with

"Not too sure what to make of Sottys vote TBH it is kinda weird they want me to respond to their vote before explaining it. "

to which scotty responds with

"You're not at all interested in what changed our opinion of you?"

then pushes hard with

"Please don't make me wait an entire weekend worth of time for a response this time."

as if Jason hadn't clearly pointed out he'd be V/LA over the weekend in question. Jason responds with

"I replied... I'm not wasting time by chasing after you asking why oh why did you change your mind... if you have a solid reason, you would have posted it by now."

which given that scotty hadn't posted a reason seems reasonable to me, scotty then does two weird things:

1) "So basically you care as much about what changed our position on you as you seemingly have about the game since about the halfway point of day 1?"

Which is clearly not what Jason is saying, maybe we're all speaking different languages but it looks to me like Jason is asking multiple times for the reasoning behind the vote.

2) "See, your early play hit what we know of your town meta to a T, but your play since has basically been coasting, and you've actually spent a large part of the game completely disinterested in our reads, which is another trait that is unlike town Jason and more like scum Jason."

Which strikes me as backwards; Scotty voted BEFORE Jason "seemed"(I'm using quotes given 1) disinterested in scotty's read, this can't be a reason for the vote and if it is it should at least be presented with an example from before the vote.


If Scotty didn't just force that then I honestly don't know what your definition of forced is but for me that's a pretty damn good example of it. I'm happy to say I think at least one of them are scum, I've already given reasons why I don't think it's Jason and now I've given reasons why I think it's scotty; my vote stands.

[Nostredeus]

Oh you're voting me, I'm shocked, truly I am...

I suppose if you ignore all of the words around Jason saying "I'm not bothered" then I you can probably pretend that Jason only responded with "I'm not bothered", if however you go ahead and read all of Jason's stuff you'll see things like the line I quoted:

"I replied... I'm not wasting time by chasing after you asking why oh why did you change your mind... if you have a solid reason, you would have posted it by now."

Or directly from the same post you quoted:

"Not too sure what to make of Sottys vote TBH it is kinda weird they want me to respond to their vote before explaining it."

I dunno how that can be read other than Jason wanting an explanation before responding.


With regards to V/LA, like, V/LA is V/LA I dunno why Jason can't post over the weekends but honestly I don't care as long as it is consistent both when Jason is town/scum; which, you know, it is...

Given that ^ there's probably a difference between someone coasting over a weekend when it's clearly not a scum-tell and someone coasting in the sense that they didn't have to respond to any heat on them for an entire in-game day; sure we've used the same words but frankly we have different meanings when we say "coasting" and yours is crap.


This stuff about how I've brought a read on SAD out of no where is really odd, given that you've just dragged a read out of no where on Jason after calling him town D1 I'm not sure who you think that's gunna be convincing? The difference between us is I gave reasons and allowed others to provide input on those reasons, you voted then gave reasons a number of posts later based on stuff that happened AFTER the vote.


The stuff on TML is a general worry/observation that no one has made any effort towards looking into TML, that's all I'm saying there, if I say something more you can read into that all you want but I recommend you wait for me to say something more first.


I'll vote based on other people's reasoning all I want, and change stance based on other people's reasoning too; see me changing stance on the mass name claim early D1, shockingly other people can have convincing thoughts too.


tl;dr: herp derp bro?

[Nostredeus]

Prod dodge, I'll read stuff sometime tomorrow; evidently an egosplosion happened and I cba right now.

[Nostredeus]

So the whole 1v1 thing strikes me as two town players going at each other; I'm not that interested in it.

I find game set-up speculation to be dull/filler, mostly because I'm not very good at it given my lack of mod experience; for what it's worth though 3 scum + 1 traitor + 1 SK feels about right to me.

Not sure how I feel about CDB, I was reading CDB town but I'll give stuff another look over.

Scotty's interaction with Jason still feels bad to me, I've explained why but I don't see it getting traction today; at least until I've had time to re-read some stuff I'll keep my vote there.

[Nostredeus]

@Nost

between CDB, and Kuribo who would you prefer hang?

I'm still reading stuff but my initial thoughts are:

Buddying Scotty makes me sad given the read I have on Scotty, voting Jason also makes me sad given the read I have on the Scotty/Jason scenario, but what I really don't like is the multiple times CDB has said he'd be "reading Nost" (#1393/#1153 to name two) before moving swiftly on; I'm not sure what CDB is trying to do with that (I mean maybe CDB is trying to drum up some chat on me without doing it himself, I'm really not sure *shrugs*), but frankly if someone's going to say they're reading me I kinda want them to go ahead and read me, ya know?

Kuribo however feels town, I've given my opinion on ActionDan as 'town', and that 1vs1 seems town vs town.


Scotty is a better lynch than CDB imo but again, I'm still reading.

[Nostredeus]

@Nos: Odds are no one is lynching sotty right now, and if they don't then you're wasting your vote. Who's your next suspect?

I agree, I answered this a while ago, but to re-iterate:

VOTE: ChannelDelibird

[Nostredeus]

I hate to agree with Scotty here but the last few pages feel town:

Unvote

@TML: CDB asked a reasonable question, could you answer it (at the very least so I see what I'm apparently missing there):

Sure. Why should your position on the wagon change my suspicion of you, as you imply?

Also if your main complaint with CDB is that he isn't looking for scum to what degree do you agree/disagree that CDB has been forced to defend himself instead and couldn't?

[Nostredeus]

@Mod: V/LA this weekend

[Nostredeus]

I'm back, I'll post something tonight, chill.

As a preview; none of those wagons are great imo, if I join one it'll be a compromise lynch (Maybe SAD, maybe not) and I'm pretty surprised some of you think they're the best targets for today especially over Scotty.

[Nostredeus]

So:

I'm not lynching kise; the wagon has all of my scum reads on it and the claim is potentially solid.

I'm not lynching BT and SAD I'm finding hard to read but I'm leaning town there.

Kuribo is obnoxious as fuck but town; also when I'm V/LA I'm V/LA, deal with it (I've got a lylo game going and I've been prioritising that whilst back).


Well I'm going back now that this vote is slightly less hipster:

Vote: Scotty

If Kise gets lynched the flip does provide nice info so if it happens I'll only palm face with one hand.

[Nostredeus]

Apologies for my laziness, like I said previously another game I'm in is at lylo.

If I'm compromise voting it'll be SAD over BT; I see literally no reason to vote the latter.

[Nostredeus]

If I'm compromise voting it'll be SAD over BT; I see literally no reason to vote the latter.

Stop being lazy, go look at Kuribo/Kise, and vote one of them

Kise's claim is solid.

Kuribo is an obnoxious town.

There legit isn't a case on BT which is becoming kinda standard in this game.

You're probably town although sadly like I said in a previous post I have a twitch of doubt over that but even that's not significant.


I literally think scum is chilling out and watching town eat itself today, it happens, I get that, but really we could at least lynch scotty and get a decent chunk of information out of it.

[Nostredeus]

If I'm compromise voting it'll be SAD over BT; I see literally no reason to vote the latter.

Stop being lazy, go look at Kuribo/Kise, and vote one of them

Kise's claim is solid.

Ah hahahahahaaaaaaaaaah

I wish we weren't collectively afraid to lynch a power role claim. I don't see kise flipping town, like at all.

That's not what I said but I see you're at it again.

(Pssssst, town, no one will miss scotty and you can get a decent read on Kise, me, Jason, and BT when the flip happens. I hear that might be better than lynching the least town of 4 townies *shrugs*.)


P-Edit: I've been distanced from all of those wagons all day because, you know, they're bad.

[Nostredeus]

I see you've given up actually making arguments for us being scum.

... Yeah okay bro.

[Nostredeus]

So feel free to tell me what a Sottyrulez town flip tells the town about you, Kise, Jason, and BT.

... He was obviously referring to the scenario in which you flip scum. This feels really awkward considering you're not on the brink of a lynch.

I know right, it's almost as if I think he should be and have been saying as much all day.

[Nostredeus]

Oh, and I guess the information gathered from a hypothetical sotty town lynch is not going to be addressed by nost. My mouth is still wide open from both of them brushing that one off.

Yeah so I have no idea how Town aren't seeing you repeatedly put words into mine/other's mouths, for example in this case pretending that what BT said was what I'd said. *Shrugs*. I didn't say we should lynch you as an information lynch I said, for other players, hence why I started with "pssst town", if the choice is between those 4 wagons and you then at the very least (though I obviously think you're scum so aren't justifying -->MY<-- vote that way) we'd get info from it in a way we don't get with other wagons.

[Nostredeus]

You realise the first quote explains the problem you have with the second right? Like are you trying to convince people for me?

[Nostredeus]

I just read that particular post again.

*You said you weren't arguing that we were a good information lynch.

*You then go on to argue about how we'd be a good information lynch.

My

God.

Yeah I think, like before, it's pretty clear that my point has been made. I even used arrows to help you avoid this confusion, you're being intentionally obtuse, you're scum.

[Nostredeus]

Nos, you can keep trying to play it cool by ignoring it when I call you BT's scum buddy, but that won't make it any less true.

*Shrugs* The Westboro Baptist Church says mental shit too, I don't spend much time chatting to them about that though either.

[Nostredeus]

NOST!?!?!? There's 24 hours to a deadline and noone is interested in lynching sotty.

Time to compromise. Between BT and SAD who would you rather see live???

Seriously... pretend to understand good town play.

I've legit already answered that I'll lynch SAD as a compromise, chill.

[Nostredeus]

Alright, here you guys go:

Vote: SAD

[Nostredeus]

vote: TML

That should happen today. Currently away from a computer but I'll explain when I get back.

[Nostredeus]

Shit, sorry guys I've been doing funding applications over the last couple of days; I'm on it right now, gimme a mo.

[Nostredeus]

So yeah, basically take the SAD wagon:

Deasvail, Plessiezarus, Zdenek, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird, sottyrulez

I take out the dead:

Deasvail, Plessiezarus, Zdenek, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird

And conf town:

Deasvail, Plessiezarus, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird

And myself:

Deasvail, Plessiezarus, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, ChannelDeliBird

Then look at who is left and I've got town reads on Jason, Plessie, Deasvail and CDB.

Combine that with TML interactions / the unease I get when a townie gets 0 heat all game / the legit solid cases on TML today and PoE says it's time to scrap Wall-E.

[Nostredeus]

Still think Kuribo is scum... would anyone be willing to go for Kuribo lynch?

Nope, my kuribo read hasn't changed.

[Nostredeus]

Yup. The moment my lylo game ends (in a town loss ) this game stops going at a million miles per hour, standard.

[Nostredeus]

All of that vote analysis applies to TML too, so unless you have a case better than the current TML ones then that isn't sitting well with me.

[Nostredeus]

Really a replacement this late in the game with a player at L-2? Baw, fine, let's settle in for the long haul.

[Nostredeus]

Where I'm at:

Sold on a TML lynch with current info, someone needs to provide more info or TML needs to rebut previously given info.

Camn just basically said "Here is a tonne of stuff", also here's a vote that is totally unrelated to the tonne of stuff I just said, I don't like that and want to hear more from camn on that; at the moment it sounds like a really weak attempt to push an alternative mislynch today.

Deasvail can say stuff any time.

If people want to change my mind on the TML wagon the place to look for a different suspect is this lot: Deasvail, Plessiezarus, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, ChannelDeliBird
-I currently have town reads on everyone but TML in that group, scum probably have one in that group, if it isn't TML someone is gunna have to tell me who it actually is and why.


So yeah, I don't think I'm just blindly accepting the case Plessie, I just think the people who need to contribute to keep this game moving aren't and as such there's just a tonne of agreement in here.

[Nostredeus]

@mod: V/LA for the weekend, will try and stay involved but no promises, my vote will stay where it is since either town save us a replacement or they take a weekend to catch up anyway.

[Nostredeus]

I know it's a bit sucky but I'm not cool with ditching lynches because a player needs time to settle in. Personally, and again I don't mean to be a dick, I consider opting to replace in an agreement to catch up sufficiently to deal with the current game-state, unfortunately though given that the current game state is to lynch your slot that does translate to a lot of work.

I feel mean but: Confirming vote.

[Nostredeus]

^read this when back.

Just making a note to myself, but really I'm more interested in the members of yesterday's wagon; I'll give it a fair hearing though.

[Nostredeus]

Why are you only looking for scum on the SAD wagon? What makes you think that there has to be scum there?

I find the wagon which stays stable the longest to be more likely scum motivated, I find that scum does one of two things; 1) Pick a read and go for them, 2) Takes advantage of opportunities to lynch. I find town pick a target and go for them whilst considering other cases and being willing to move their vote a lot, they almost never play opportunistically.

The above makes me suspicious of heavily stable wagons with members who don't make an effort to consider other cases and also compromise voters, SAD's wagon has both.

Please expand on the bolded.

If a player garners no suspicion from other players in the game it worries me, the longer it goes on the more I wonder why; for example I just finished a game where the scum RB took no heat for days, I'm wary of it is what I'm saying.

[Nostredeus]

The difference is that we know SAD's alignment so can make judgements about that wagon in hindsight, as such I'd expect people to make judgements about the makeup of the current wagon if you flipped town, for example I expect a tonne of heat if you do. [Pretending you're town, nope, there is no difference and ->if<- you are then the same reasoning should apply, I'm still happy to find out but I think there's more chat to be had.] (Not ignoring your other stuff by the way just unable to comprehensively post on a phone).

[Nostredeus]

Just got back, cba answering stuff right now, will do so sometime tomorrow.

[Nostredeus]

Cool so answers about yesterday's wagons rolled into one:

The wagons yesterday were frankly very revealing and I dunno why camn is having a hard time getting decent analysis from them. The Kuribo wagon was clearly just a reaction to the play style, there's nothing to see there. The CDB wagon:

ChannelDeliBird (5) - Plessiezarus, Zdenek, The Mini-Librarian, kuribo, camn

If there was scum on it it's clearly TML or camn. The kise wagon:

Kise (6) - The Mini-Librarian, Cerulean, Ser Arthur Dayne, sottyrulez, Benmage, camn

Again, if there was scum on it it's probably TML or camn. The BT wagon:

BT (7) - Channeldelibird, Kise, sottyrulez, kuribom Benmage, camn, Ser Arthur Dayne

So, again if there is scum on this wagon it's probably camn. The SAD wagon:

Ser Arthur Dayne (9) - Deasvail, Plessiezarus, Zdenek, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird, sottyrulez, camn

So, yeah, errrr, TML/camn for scum on this one too, more so TML. You might be noticing a trend in the way TML played yesterday (camn too but there's other stuff regarding TML that makes it a more productive slot to lynch).


With regards to the stability thing 'for the longest' was a bad phrase to use tbh, what I was meaning is the core members stayed on regardless of alternative options for an extended period of time and even in situations where they were offered an out, 'so I'm gunna compromise swap to SAD' would have gone down fine, also the same logic -in reverse- applies to people who did swap from BT to SAD.


Other questions, errrr, oh yeah, Kuribo said something like 'town tunnel too' I think. That can be said of literally everything in the game, mafia is just a WIFOM fest if we're all honest, every justification can apply to town and scum. imo the real tells come from the motivations behind the things that layers do and the way to find that is when multiple actions are taken as a whole. Instead the real question you want to ask is presumably 'why do you think vote-hopping in this case is scum motivated?'. So yeah no I'm not saying town never tunnel and town never vote-hop I'm saying in this case the way TML vote hopped multiple times is indicative of opportunistic motivations.


(If I missed a question or w.e then ask them if they actually mattered.)
---


Recent stuff:

Plezzie is town, yup, that was clear already but now concrete, Kuribo too. How about we take that information and look at the wagons from yesterday that I've copy pasted and see if there are any inferences, I think there are of course, but since a lot of you guys have newly town reads on Plezzie/Kuribo it might be worth you doing?

Equinox, are you saying you find Zdenek potentially scummy? If so can you please link me a game with a scum aligned friendly neighbor, I could do with a source or two to see how scum friendly neighbors play and I can't find an example of it happening.

[Nostredeus]

EBWODP: *something like 'town vote-hop too' I think.

[Nostredeus]

Hi, Nostredeus.

Please answer this ASAP:

I don't think you ever mentioned what information could have been gained from sottyrulez's flip. Now that you have it, what have you learned?

What sort of information would Kise's flip have provided at this point?

You've already touched on the second question by mentioning who you think would have been scum on Kise's wagon, but what I'm also looking for here is what led you to say in post 1819 that you wouldn't have been happy with Kise getting lynched over sottyrulez but would still gain "information" from it. What was your thought process at the time you had said these things?

Also, please answer this question:

Equinox (5) - ChannelDelibird, BT, Nostredeus, Plessiezarus, Shaft

Would you expect to find scum in this group? If so, how many and where based on your current knowledge of the game state?

Preferably today before I flip, please.

Regarding the Kise flip: The information was simply to clarify a number of reads I had on people, for example I've already mentioned that it has solidified my read on you.

The scottyrulez flip: I'm on my phone so I can't get back to you asap unless you link me the post where I said it; that way I can find it on my phone.

IF you flip town I expect CDB or BT to be good places to look, also as I've already said town would probably look at me too. Given the fact that you wont flip town I'm not too worried about having to actually deal with this scenario though.

@ALL: If plezzie and kuribo are town, also given the flips, what is your interpretation of yesterday's wagons. This really isn't that complex.

[Nostredeus]

Ugh, because that wasn't obviously coming or anything, anyway I'm literally not getting into a wall war with two other players simultaneously here. I'll reply to the general themes in a moment once I've had the chance to write up a decent post.


(Also equinox it legit didn't take you 21 minutes (or an hour if you started typing before #2443) to write that post, let's not pretend you didn't throw that vote/post up in reaction to plessie's post yeah?)

[Nostredeus]

In response to #2443:

So, let me get this straight. I'm showing a serious lack of willingness to change my reads but at the same time if I change my read on the Jason-Scotty situation I've some how ignored my previous game-state? You can't have it both ways mate, pick one side of that fence and I'll defend against it.

Regarding the SAD wagon, I had town reads on the other members PoE suggests TML scum, that's really not a controversial way of narrowing down the lynch options for today. Regarding the comment from #2314 I said two things in there not just the one you highlighted and I consider TML to be a really weird compromise lynch, I'll make you a deal though, you show me TML's case on SAD in day2 and I'll be interested in re-evaluating that position.


In response to #2445:

The reason I suspect Camn and TML is BECAUSE of their presence on every significant wagon, usually late in the day with the exception of TML on Kise but the reason I don't like that is more down to the claim. It smacks of wagon hopping, it smacks of opportunism; if you can show me another player who was on every significant wagon then I'm happy to re-evaluate, you and I know that wont be possible however.

The fact that I included Camn should tell you that I'm not just fitting reads to TML, I'm seeing the circumstances and looking at the suspicious actors then selecting the more suspicious of the two.

People suspected ActionDan, that was weird in itself (I mentioned this at the time), people then bought into what I think were weak reads based on Kuribo's playstyle.


Equinox's post:

Actually I'm gunna go eat some stuff and be back later (After work) to respond to this bit, bear in mind though the more questions you both ask the less detailed my responses get due to other commitments; wall wars are unproductive with me due to time constraints sadly .


P-Edit: What kind of a response is that. :/

[Nostredeus]

So, just a quicky (still working) if BT flips town what does that mean for your super solid 'auto-lynch' read on me?

[Nostredeus]

Nos




I can smell your fear.


Your buddy today, and you tomorrow.

*Shrugs* Well frak it, why not me today, might as well with your watertight cases right?

[Nostredeus]

Basically I couldn't give a damn about BT, equinox is where today's lynch should be and frankly if I've buddied anyone surely it's Plessie or CDB or frak even Jason? I mean maybe BT is scum, that explains some stuff about yesterday's wagons. Examples being the lack of TML's presence on the BT wagon when it was a frankly easy opportunity, it also highlights a distinguishing factor between camn and TML that'll be handy to have. Honestly though it's not the right place to look; yesterday's wagons played out the way they did for a reason, I'm the only person offering an explanation, feel free to provide a counter narrative at any point.

(I play mafia with maths, vote counts, and so on; you play mafia with one hand down your pants and one hand holding a copy of psychology for dummies. Different styles do not necessarily equal different alignments and mine is totally consistent site wide *shrugs*.)

[Nostredeus]

Also, not to be that guy but '2 * 2 - 3 + 1 + 1 + 6 * 1 - 3 / 3 + 3' doesn't equal 5.

3/3 = 1
2*2 = 4
6*1 = 6
3+1+1+6 = 11
1+3 = 4
4-11-4 = -11

'2 * 2 - 3 + 1 + 1 + 6 * 1 - 3 / 3 + 3' = -11

jus' sayin'

[Nostredeus]

You're even scummy at math. Nostresignerrordeus.

not only that, but when he tries to point out why he's not BT's buddy, HE SIMPLY REITERATES THE THINGS THAT WERE SAID LINKING HIM AS BT'S BUDDY


the fuck?

My maths is legit, learn 2 BIDMAS bro.

[(2*2)-(3+1+1+(6*1))-((3/3)+3) whack that into a calculator, and stick with psychology.]


Anyway, please highlight this reiteration of things, *sniff*, yup, it smells like bullshit to me.

[Nostredeus]

After looking at who could be tml's or equinox's buddy I checked some other people. Assuming that scum is unlikely to bus aggressively, which is likely from day two on following the bad day one for them, if Nost isn't scum, then there is very likely scum in most people's *very likely town list*. So Nost is probably scum, and if he flips town, we learn something from his lynch.

Cool, so if BT and I are town who does that indicate is scum; I'll give you a hint, you can find out by looking at yesterday's wagons. (People lie, votes and flips don't.)

[Nostredeus]

That's good enough for me, scum have lost enough people for town to lose a couple on the way to Equinox/TML dying; I'd rather it wasn't that way and I'll keep opposing it but if it must go down like that then fine. CDB will be alive at that point and he can make sure town actually stay on course this time.

[Nostredeus]

That was like, laughably bad.

"I couldn't give a damn about BT," well, obviously, because we've made the case that you guys have been stuck up one anothers' asses.

That's pretty weird, I gave a reason for why I couldn't give a damn, you've cut the quote off and substituted your own reason; like, I'm not sure how this is supposed to be me using the reasons you think I'm BT's scumbuddy to say why I'm not, but hey ho like I said bullshit.

"Equinox is where today's lynch should be," which makes sense, since why lynch your scum buddy?

Again, I've given reasons for why Equinox should die so I dunno what this is supposed to prove.

"If I've buddied anyone, surely it's----" let me stop you right there. And leave. When I come back, I'll point out that this is ridiculous because YOU HAVE buddied BT. Whether he's town or scum, you're linked to him, and his reaction since this was pointed out only makes it more glaring.

Yeah, so I gave you a list of people I've clearly buddied up to more, either the whole "Nost buddied X so they're both scum" is bullshit or you need to pick BT/me some more logically consistent buddies.

"I mean maybe BT is scum, that explains some stuff about yesterday's wagon" You mean like the frustration when the Kise counter-wagon fizzled? And how SAD got run up at the last minute? Yup.

Yup.

"Yesterday's wagons happened that way yesterday for a reason" You're god damn right they did, and they saved BT's ass.

Yup, we've already discussed this, so I dunno what your point is.

"I'm the only person offering an explanation," No. You're analyzing things while commenting very little on them, and trying to use the analysis to feed us a narrative.

Some more of this dubious bullshit to clean up I see; I'm making a very basic and easy to understand claim. If you put plessie and kuribo in the conf town column along with the obv townies then you look at the wagons from yesterday you get to a really simple conclusion: Either all of the wagons were on scum OR TML/Camn were jumping on every opportunity to get a townie lynched. If you don't buy it feel free to say some stuff that engages with that claim, because all I've been hearing today is heap tonnes of dubious shit.


Anyway, I need to get back to working, so if you have any more things to say that you think are clever my responses to them will have to wait.

[Nostredeus]

So given the derp that's occurring if this goes down I'll claim around L-2 and we'll all chuckle at how silly everyone has been...


Is seriously no one reading Equinox's attempt to get me lynched before BT as scum motivated especially given the discussion about what happens if both BT and I flip town, I mean the order doesn't really matter that much to me it's all the same I just dunno why it does to Equinox.


(Also BT you did the 4-3 here: '4 - 3 + 1 + 1 + 6 - 1 + 3' before the addition which is why you get positive 11 instead of neg 11; what you should have done is add first getting '4-11-4', then do your subtraction and you'll see I'm right. )


P-edit: I picked a fight with scotty not the other way round, it'd be pretty weird for me to NK him...

[Nostredeus]

Actually maybe you're right on the maths... *shrugs*

[Nostredeus]

I'm really sorry I haven't posted guys, I'm writing the final section of my dissertation and it's being a little shit; I will get a sizable post in within the next few hours since I'm up all night anyway. Until then suffice to say I'm 'Team BT' because who likes vampires anyway, and by vampires I mean Equinox.

[Nostredeus]

Cool, I have a spare hour, writing up that post I promised you guys now.

[Nostredeus]

Spoiler: Reasons I want Equinox lynched

--No one gave a damn about Equinox.--

Perhaps I'm not grasping the fundamentals of the game but from what I can see scum have an interest in a) not allowing anyone to be tacitly or explicitly be considered town, b) mislynching tonwies, c) discrediting players by making other players suspicious of them.

During day 1 I find most players end up getting numerous votes sent their way, sometimes people get wagon-ed, sometimes they just get questioned. Whatever it is they usually get some heat, a good scum team usually ensures this happens to achieve a, b and c. When that doesn't happen at all for two days it suggests to me one of three explanations: 1) The scum team is bad, 2) They do not want to do a, b or c regarding this player, 3) It is too risky for them to do a, b or c. I do not think 1 or 3 apply; whilst scum have suffered heavy losses it has largely been out of their control, and as Kuribo has already said TML is "mislynch fodder", an easy lynch, and clearly someone who doesn't put up much of a fight (see the start of today). 2 seems to be the most likely explanation, that makes me initially suspicious though not enough to push for a lynch mind you; there needs to be more.

--The D2 wagons--

Regardless of what Kuribo says I am a firm believer that looking at the wagon composition of previous days we can see patterns in the votes of players, I can accept that some of you might disagree and that's fine but it is also something I commonly do and far from a Nostredeus scum-tell.

Yesterday had a series of failed wagons and a successful one, what we can do with these wagons is highlight on them we can eliminate through process of elimination certain players who are regarded as, confirmed as, or flipped town :

ChannelDeliBird (6)

-

Plessiezarus

,

Zdenek

, The Mini-Librarian,

kuribo

, camn, Nostredeus

Kise (6)

- The Mini-Librarian, Cerulean,

Ser Arthur Dayne

,

sottyrulez

, Benmage, camn

BT (7)

- Channeldelibird,

Kise

,

sottyrulez

,

kuribo

, Benmage, camn,

Ser Arthur Dayne

Ser Arthur Dayne (9)

- Deasvail,

Plessiezarus

,

Zdenek

, JasonT1981, The-Mini Librarian, Nostredeus, ChannelDeliBird,

sottyrulez

, camn


We can then make inferences about the composition of those wagons (note: this is explicitly what camn tried to do, except I'll actually go ahead and make my conclusions related to the data), we can do so in two ways: 1) I could make a subjective call about who I consider to be town and subjectively eliminate them also, or 2) we can see if there are any objective trends across the wagons themselves.

Regarding 1:

First, and I don't intend on detailing why here since the post will be long enough but I have relevant town reads on these people: Myself, CDB, Deasvail, Benmage, Jason, and Cerulean.

This leads me to the subjective conclusion, and yes I do mean subjective you should all do your own subjective analysis based on your own town reads, that:
The CDB wagon potentially has scum in TML/camn.
The Kise wagon potentially has scum in TML/camn.
The BT wagon potentially has scum in camn.
The SAD wagon potentially has scum in TML/camn.

I say potentially because they might just have been in the wrong place at the wrong time or my 'town reads' could be wrong, regardless process of elimination by use of my town reads gets ME, subjectively, to the conclusion that TML and/or camn is scum.

There is an interesting point to note here: The only wagon from yesterday which TML was not on is the BT wagon, if I had a scum read on BT this would simply make me want TML dead more.

Regarding 2:

Instead of looking at subjective analysis we can also consider objective trends in behavior. Yesterday's wagons have a number of members, and EVEN IF, we assume all of my subjective town reads are null there is still a pattern of behavior from TML/camn. The behavior I mean here, to be clear, is that they jump to every available wagon and TML in particular does not do any real work to build a case on the wagons he is on. They are the only two people who can be found on every single wagon; there are of course multiple possible explanations for this. 1) They could just be properly unlucky and in the wrong place at the wrong time every time, 2) One of them could be scum and the other is just unfortunate to be on similar wagons, 3) They could both be scum. I'm totally happy to say 1 might be true, or even that 2 might be true but given these patterns of behavior and the other cases on TML I'm very much happy to see Equinox die.

--Concluding remarks--

Look, I can't be sure of every read I have, it's the nature of the game, but when I combine the above stuff with the stuff I am reading from plessie in particular I feel much more confident that this lynch isn't a total bust. If it does end up being a total bust however then fine, whatever, I'll sheep the crap out of the QT'ers and re-evaluate all of my reads, until then though Equinox is the right lynch. I'm sure I've said other things that I'd like to clarify for you all but I honestly did only have an hour.

That's my hour up, more later if I can.

[Nostredeus]

^ Yup.

[Nostredeus]

@Pless: Yeah so quite obviously my point was "if for some reason you don't have a town read on BT *cough see the wagon on BT* then TML is a decent lynch anyway", it's a pretty relevant point dunno what your beef is frankly.

[Nostredeus]

Seriously if you were Avon why didn't you just claim your character like a ridiculous number of pages ago and we could have done something, especially given how I feel about Avon (See the post where I mentioned Avon and Stringer)... We've got less than a day to deadline, BT is a bad lynch that is no doubt going to get pushed through because of this, and you're expendable; unless I hear something special from someone I'm following through, if I do hear something special I'll potentially be cool with a wagon on camn. :/

*Whimpers also*

[Nostredeus]

I'd really rather not to be honest Kuribo.

[Nostredeus]

@Kuribo: If you think BT is scum who, if anyone, from yesterday's SAD wagon do you think is his buddy? Or do you think his buddy was bussing him?

[Nostredeus]

@Mod: So it's the weekend and I travel places, as usual I'm V/LA (I usually post what I can on my phone), I'm around for little bit longer though but if today doesn't end before then sorry, I know it's bad timing.

[Nostredeus]

Also not moving my vote.

[Nostredeus]

For reals Kuribo? Has anyone on the BT wagon been reading the game.

[Nostredeus]

*Whistles*

GG.

[Nostredeus]

*Whistles*

GG.

?

?

[Nostredeus]

Well that was a lot of fun, really great to watch near the end as well.