Red Wine Mafia: Game Over

[chamber]

Funny thing Is, I think i'm probably

one of the weakest players here

. So happy to play in a game of solid players that won't self vote, melt down, or suicide in lylo for once.

Hey tammy if you're town let's be masons.

Riiiiight

For the record this was somewhat serious. Tammy Empire and the like are still a tier higher than me. I can only play a decent scumgame; my towngame fluxuates too much.

I always find it interesting how the new generations view things. Looking at the list I would have picked out llmarable and CTD (my little exposure to fferyllt has also been positive), and yet none of them made your list of explicitly mentioned users.

[chamber]

Vote Espeonage

[chamber]

Can we have an english only rule?

[chamber]

I wasn't asking you, I was asking myk.

[chamber]

fuck it.

Unvote vote Pjovek

I'll be back once hes lynched.

[chamber]

Just lynch him with me. hes trolling the game, speaking in other languages and being misogynistic.

[chamber]

Just lynch him with me. hes trolling the game, speaking in other languages and being misogynistic.

Do you think he's scum?

don't care.

[chamber]

I don't care if hes scum or not, Hes getting lynched, we can figure out who the scum are day 2. Hes never going to be anything but disruptive, and is a detriment to the game whether hes scum or not.

[chamber]

Ok, let me try this way.

Chamber do you think Pjo is scum? If not, why are you demanding his lynch when it is entirely possible to ignore someone and actually scumhunt?

I don't think he's town, and that's enough.

He may be easiest to ignore right now, but its also when it costs the least to remove him. As the game progresses he'll be equally unreadable and increasingly disruptive as he makes up a larger percentage of the living. He'll never be killed as either alignment, because scum have no motivation to kill themselves or damaging elements.


Last 3 pages.

[chamber]

Katsuki replaces the silver bard. Thanks katsuki!

It's almost like someone being a dick and outing his tl main made this guy replace out.

[chamber]

This is a ridiculously boring line of questioning. 1: we should just be lynching pjo anyway. 2: Do you honestly expect as town that T S O would be that intellectually honest with himself? I'm not knocking T S O here, you just set a really high bar. No one is going to Deep Read a game just because you link it as a reference, they'll skim it quickly focusing on pjos posts and then just pick out the things that reinforce their initial opinion anyway. I missed that Tammy was in that game.

[chamber]

No one is going to Deep Read a game just because you link it as a reference

Hi.

Hi, I don't believe that you deep read the game to my standards. Even if you did, 'No' was clearly hyperbole, I said it was a very high bar before that, not an impossibly high one.

[chamber]

Espeonage is probably scum.

[chamber]

Espeonage is scum

with

pjo apparently, didn't see that one cumming.

[chamber]

wow, embarrassing spell-check miss-click.

[chamber]

Nice way to ensure every option is covered so that no matter what answer could be given. And you're telling me you aren't trying to incriminate out of nothing. I don't care if he knows your meta or not. I care that is was an honest answer. Cabd might actually be mafia, he might have been trying to push me into hastily voting for you. But, as I keep saying: That. Is. Not. Why. I. Am. Voting. You!

PEdit: Hmm?

You're voting mindgamer?

This is a pretty shitty response. I wonder if your argument is consistent with a scum spat.

[chamber]

Nice way to ensure every option is covered so that no matter what answer could be given. And you're telling me you aren't trying to incriminate out of nothing. I don't care if he knows your meta or not. I care that is was an honest answer. Cabd might actually be mafia, he might have been trying to push me into hastily voting for you. But, as I keep saying: That. Is. Not. Why. I. Am. Voting. You!

PEdit: Hmm?

You're voting mindgamer?

This is a pretty shitty response. I wonder if your argument is consistent with a scum spat.

I'm pretty confused by that reply actually.

Got you and tammy confused for a moment. Still a shitty post.

[chamber]

I don't like rvs truth be told, so I either start accusing people or I hard wagon whatever presents itself. I do it in all alignments. There's a reason I get lynched day one more often than most people in relation to on late days.

Holy shit are you scum.

[chamber]

@Chamber: When you're next in here. How are you feeling about Pjo at the moment now that you are along in voting him.

I have no intention of voting for anyone other than him until he's dead.

[chamber]

Huh? Guy just said he read the dang game, and it's a pretty surface level thing they're talking about. Are you implying scum are more intellectually honest (interesting but requires explanation)?

I was implying scum and town are equally intellectually dishonest, making the question dumb. He lied about reading the game (or at least reading it remotely carefully) that was evident, but that's also just not at all alignment telling.

[chamber]

I'm going to hold out hope for a single-main-enemy game regardless.
Kats is pretty town by himself.
"It seems my slot is already obvtown" is a good start and the rest matches a bouncy town pattern pretty well.
He's even kinda useful for once and I liked the votehandle.
TSB was very town too with 75 a strong early reading post, willingness to interact with me, and a healthy bit of "yeah I'm town this game so you'll probably get the following" introspection.
I'd be intrigued to see one of his scumgames on his alt, but I don't think I require extra meta for this read and I have others to sort through first.

Kat's slots previous player seemed pretty towny too.

[chamber]

I'm going to hold out hope for a single-main-enemy game regardless.
Kats is pretty town by himself.
"It seems my slot is already obvtown" is a good start and the rest matches a bouncy town pattern pretty well.
He's even kinda useful for once and I liked the votehandle.
TSB was very town too with 75 a strong early reading post, willingness to interact with me, and a healthy bit of "yeah I'm town this game so you'll probably get the following" introspection.
I'd be intrigued to see one of his scumgames on his alt, but I don't think I require extra meta for this read and I have others to sort through first.

Kat's slots previous player seemed pretty towny too.

Err, I did say that. TSB =/= TSO

Yep, I fail at reading, carry on.

[chamber]

"Chamber is mad! He must be town"

No need to correct them when I'm town anyway though.

[chamber]

I feel like I'm going to be forced to actually play this game.

[chamber]

We have five days I want chamber to do something in that period of time

Probably not going to happen. I still don't intend on voting for anyone other than pjo.

[chamber]

Point being, why did it take me saying something about it to call you to action on him?

Why would you assume that you were the trigger? that seems pretty self centered. Its more likely that I was the trigger.

[chamber]

We have five days I want chamber to do something in that period of time

Probably not going to happen. I still don't intend on voting for anyone other than pjo.

Is your urge to lynch him so strong that you'd lynch him over anything else? Like if somebody straight up scum slipped with info from outside the thread, you wouldn't vote them?

If there was 100% proof that someone else was scum, I'd likely still vote him. It wouldn't really matter in that case though because the 100% confirmed scum would still get lynched anyway?

[chamber]

Point being, why did it take me saying something about it to call you to action on him?

Why would you assume that you were the trigger? that seems pretty self centered. Its more likely that I was the trigger.

lol... when your ISO is full of any number of triggers he could have used to land a vote on you and he didn't, I'm going to assume it is the new influence, and not the old.

Its my first post like that since hes replaced in, and really only like the 2nd in the game. Who did you replace again?

[chamber]

CTD. I didn't have much of a read on him, his votes were mostly good but replacing out is suspect from him I feel. If FF is town and Espeonage is scum its probably a good idea to lynch your slot but otherwise I can't advocate it too strongly. Unfortunate.


ETL is totally a power rule, you guys should NK her.

[chamber]

role*

[chamber]

But then he went from doing something to nothing with his unvote.

I never unvoted?

[chamber]

My reads are bad, I have a townread on everyone to a lesser extent minus chamber

SIGH

This post is a post scum me would make.

[chamber]

Actually this is true, and if ABR flips town BB is most definitely town.

How exactly does that follow?

[chamber]

Two things:

One - Why is chamber calling out this post:

My reads are bad, I have a townread on everyone to a lesser extent minus chamber

SIGH

This post is a post scum me would make.

but not this one:

Still think that espeonage is scum.

I'm not going to cry over an ABR or Pjovek lynch though.

Everyone else is town. We should hold hands, sing kumbaya and roast marshmallows.

which essentially says the same thing.

Two: I forget. Give me a minute.

Because I'm behind and skimming and bbmollas post caught my attention. Its entirely possible I simply never read yours. With that said, yours doesn't seem as bad anyway. The wording is more natural, and you are happy with where your vote is, all of which are key differences. BBmolla had just unvoted. The 'SIGH' made it feel very forced, and him saying his reads are shit gives him an excuse to spontaneously change them when he decides who he wants to vote next (if scum).

[chamber]

My reads are bad, I have a townread on everyone to a lesser extent minus chamber

SIGH

This post is a post scum me would make.

Okay what does this make you conclude

My drawn conclusion is that if you were me you'd definitely be scum, but because you aren't, it still makes me suspicious?

[chamber]

VOTE: Chamber

This vote is pretty objectively bad, not because I know I'm town (that only makes it subjectively bad), but because its 2.5 days till deadline and I'm not getting lynched before then.

[chamber]

katsuki (2): chamber, espeonage

Is this correct? (I certainly never moved my vote from pjo).

[chamber]

I liked you better when you were town reading me.

I'm here to do the hammering or w/e if need be. The espeonage wagon doesn't make me feel particularly good but its better than no one.

Cephir or FFerlyt is more likely to hit scum but generates a lot less information.

[chamber]

I'd rather no lynch than an ABR lynch right now I think.

[chamber]

votecount

espeonage (7): natirasha, guyett, projectmatt, cephrir, cabd, Llamarble, Albert B. Rampage
Albert B. Rampage (3): katsuki, pjovek, especiallythelies
cephrir (1): fferyllt
katsuki (1): espeonage
pjovek (1): chamber
chamber (1): bbmolla

Not voting (1): TSO

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline in 26 hours

why is everyone talking like deadline is in 5h? according to this post its like 20h away still?

[chamber]

How likely do we think it is that the mafia have day talk?

[chamber]

When in doubt, assume daytalk.

That seems like an awful idea.

[chamber]

Cabd can go in the scum pile with ffery and cephrir.

[chamber]

BBmolla
FFery
CEphrir
CAbd

Lets do one of these.

[chamber]

When in doubt, assume daytalk.

Or ask the mod.

I did ask the mod first .

[chamber]

Cabd can go in the scum pile with ffery and cephrir.

Tell me again how assuming the worst case scenario at all times is a bad idea.

Because its not always a fact that's being considered in such general terms?

[chamber]

Are you going somewhere with this such that daytalk's existence or lack thereof changes something?

The mod didn't out right answer when I asked. He said its the exception in his games and that its always there for a reason when it is. So I'm assuming itsn ot the case in this game which defeats where I was going with it. I still felt like reaction fishing with it though.

[chamber]

Are you going somewhere with this such that daytalk's existence or lack thereof changes something?

The mod didn't out right answer when I asked. He said its the exception in his games and that its always there for a reason when it is. So I'm assuming itsn ot the case in this game which defeats where I was going with it. I still felt like reaction fishing with it though.

Unfortunately someone else pointed out the whole asking the mod thing before I could get responses from the people I cared about.

[chamber]

BBmolla
FFery
CEphrir
CAbd

Lets do one of these.

UNVOTE

You advocating that lynch makes me think, not so much.

I'm really not sure what to make of your play.

Why would you unvote your scum read just because I presented them as a lynch I like? Even if we assume for a moment that you think I'm scum (something I'm not sure you've presented previous to now), there are still 2 huge issues with you unvoting. Firstly presumably your scm read on Cephrir is stronger than your scum read on me or you would have been voting for me over him in the first place. Secondly, in the world where I'm scum you don't think I'd put a scum member in that list of 4 names?

My play is pretty easy to interpret this game. IMO pjo should have been site banned for his activity in this game, or at least force-replaced/modkilled. He killed any motivation I had for it when I signed up, but with the number of other players replacing out I felt the need not to. I've thus struggled with holding any amount of attachment to the game, but have at times invested some amount of time to drop in and make surface thoughts know, because I certainly haven't developed anything deeper than that. MYSTERY UNRAVELED.

[chamber]

Also, damn llamarble for dirtying his town read on me. I was really hoping to get NKed being both an unlikely lynch and an unlikely doc protect. I even suspect Llamarble intentionally dirtied his read on me to make my kill less likely .

[chamber]

Like what the fuck is he even talking about

Making people say this is basically my town M.O. so~

[chamber]

Maybe I just thought you were better cause I was scum when you were town and so I knew you were town

This game is certainly not one of my best. I'm not very invested as I already said, but, 'what the fuck is he even saying' isn't a reason to call my alignment into question. Thats all I was saying.


@ETL: Have all the words you like. Your play is odd as shit too from my pov.

[chamber]

Are you going somewhere with this such that daytalk's existence or lack thereof changes something?

The mod didn't out right answer when I asked. He said its the exception in his games and that its always there for a reason when it is. So I'm assuming itsn ot the case in this game which defeats where I was going with it. I still felt like reaction fishing with it though.

I mean I guess there is no harm in saying it now, so if its actually causing that much confusion; I found it strange that multiple people thought the deadline was 5.5 hours away instead of a full day away. I know mykos originally posted deadline was for that other time, but he had posted multiple vote counts since then that had an updated specific deadline. I remembered that initial deadline and yet still thought to double check today, so in my mind it would stand to reason that others wold as well and they would have easily seen the accurate one had they done so. That they didn't have doubt suggested to me that they'd actually discussed or calculated the deadline previously in more detail than me, and since I don't remember such discussions happening in thread I was suspicious of them perhaps happening in a mafia QT.

[chamber]

ETL is scum btw

If not for CTD, perhaps.



I've played with you before and was similarly unwowworthy then. Your expectations are just too high~

[chamber]

I telegraphed my intent and willingness to do something more useful with my vote than essentially megafos Ceph for tomorrow in post 1360.

Just unvoting is more useful? That explains very little.

[chamber]

VOTE: Guyett

You seriously think Tammy was scum?

He's said that numerous times. What does asking that now achieve? You were the one touting interactivity over just declaring reads at each other earlier (I sentiment I generally support), but this is just you declaring your read at llamarble in a masked form.

[chamber]

I'm not willing to proclaim ABR town, but, knowing ABR a little bit, I don't think I see much that's indicative of him being scum either. Also, everyone's just kind of flopping on to him so I don't think we even gain that much info from his mislynch. Still very unhappy with that being the leading wagon.

[chamber]

I'm not willing to proclaim ABR town, but, knowing ABR a little bit, I don't think I see much that's indicative of him being scum either. Also, everyone's just kind of flopping on to him so I don't think we even gain that much info from his mislynch. Still very unhappy with that being the leading wagon.

And yet you're sitting your vote on Pjo still. :/

It's about sending a message about his play being unacceptable. If I need to move my vote to make a reasonable non abr lynch happen I probably will, but not as the first vote.

[chamber]

I think the message has been sent so get proactive already. It's just making it impossible to look at your voting pattern later. Not that I care very uch about voting patterns except insofar as they relate to bussing.

If I live long enough to have a voting pattern I'll be a very sad man. I'd rather not plan for that eventuality.

[chamber]

I mean, I presented a list of suspects I found acceptable. None of them have any traction, me picking an arbitrary one to vote isn't going to change that.

[chamber]

ETL is scum btw

I'm not willing to proclaim ABR town, but, knowing ABR a little bit, I don't think I see much that's indicative of him being scum either. Also, everyone's just kind of flopping on to him so I don't think we even gain that much info from his mislynch. Still very unhappy with that being the leading wagon.

Yet you have not made a serious case against anyone or even tried to put any effort into getting us to see what you are thinking. Instead you have sprinkled in random trollish crap. You have some better posts but I don't see the purpose of the others, if not to distract.

I'm not willing to proclaim ABR town, but, knowing ABR a little bit, I don't think I see much that's indicative of him being scum either. Also, everyone's just kind of flopping on to him so I don't think we even gain that much info from his mislynch. Still very unhappy with that being the leading wagon.

And yet you're sitting your vote on Pjo still. :/

And this.

I mean, I presented a list of suspects I found acceptable. None of them have any traction, me picking an arbitrary one to vote isn't going to change that.

You. Did not. Make any convincing case. There's no effort. You don't get to complain about people not listening to you.

I don't make cases. I think making cases is anti-town. I wasn't complaining. I was stating how I saw things and that I wouldn't be helping an abr lynch go through. If one does it does. He might even be scum.

[chamber]

Is there a particular reason why you disagree with the ABR wagon, Chamber?

Like he has said himself, his thought process at some points has mirrored my own. I also don't think the reason being raised against him are valid scumtells for him in the least. Also its a lot of people just sheeping on to him so I don't feel like we really learn anything from the mislynch. 3/4 of the people on the wagon are just going to claim that they were on it to make a lynch happen.

[chamber]

Ceph's role is the non-normal in this game, we should not have any extreme surprises.

This is a large theme.

[chamber]

There must have been lots of activity last night then.

This post feels pretty butt hurt.

Vote Guyett

[chamber]

Where's the guyett vote? I'm sheeping you and you aren't even voting for him!

[chamber]

Bets on 11v4 high townpower / a gimped scumbag or 12v3 in which case we're winning pretty hard?

A Doc and a Vig would already be pretty strong start, but my general impression of myko leads me to believe he'd be unlikely to make a 4v11 setup.

[chamber]

There must have been lots of activity last night then.

This post is seriously lynch worthy on its own. Its a classic scumtell that newbs often fall into. And guyett looks a lot like a newb.

[chamber]

Why aren't you voting him exactly?

[chamber]

These two posts, which were on the same page, make me cautious about assuming Tammy was scum with Ceph.

Yeah but normally I'm paranoid for a while and then I stop being paranoid, correctly so. This game I just think you're scum. Relatedly, I have not seen you be scum.

I can't ignore this correlation.

That's too bad for both of us if you're town.

Though, I'm in the middle of kinda fun state of mind with regard to this game. I see myself as approaching confirmed town status and my reads are going to be golden if that happens. So I should keep working on those reads.

Okay the ffery wagon is officially stupid.

Cabd? You're still scum reading ffery?

^^ She was wrong about why that post sounds like town-me, but not too far wrong.

But her comment did lead to the immediate dismantling of my wagon, even though she was commenting on something I had posted 2-3 days earlier. It still bothers me a little that Cabd didn't unvote or comment about the post until after Tammy did, because he should have known immediately what that post indicated about my stance and my estimation of my usefulness in the game.

ffery could maybe be town. I'll give her some space for now.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ABR

First vote off my wagon after Tammy's post.

I realize that this is meaningless to other players because you don't know my alignment. But, I do know it, and so do scum. I don't see why scum-Tammy would take this stance. And more importantly, I don't see why Ceph, now known to be scum, would move in lockstep with a scumbuddy on my wagon-dismantlement.

UNVOTE

I had other reasons to think Tammy was town on day 1. This wagon-interaction adds some objective weight to those reasons.

Even if we assume you are town, the place Cephrir moved to was also town, and was the eventual lynch. Two weak town wagons competing with a mafia wagon is much worse for the scum than 1 stronger town wagon. So if Espeonage is scum the move makes perfect sense. Also, the majority of the weirdness with that interaction is just Cephrir unvoting you at all. That tammy said something about you first is of pretty minor consequence.

[chamber]

And bussing is when Cephrir attacks me, which has purpose. Cephrir defending you has no purpose. Don't twist.

What? Both actions create distance between the 2 people, but one potentially results in a scum lynch and one just turns off a town lynch. How is the later not the safer of the two?

[chamber]

Katsukis been obv town all game, no way he gets mislynched yesterday. Cephrir could have easily just seen that.

[chamber]

That's not what he said.

I meant the whole slot so you can piss off, but katsuki was being town for himself too I feel. I certainly don't think there was anywhere near the momentum needed for a lynch, which was the point.

[chamber]

Katsuki has been obvtown?

Go home, chamber, you're utterly pissed.

Well, Silver Bard was pretty fuckin' town.

And even if it was, there comes a point where that just doesn't matter anymore.

Is that point day two with Espeon still alive?

For me personally, that point was when I was looking into his account so I could piss him off by revealing it.
And the exact point was when I read through his scumgame (could only find one)

But I understand that the points happen at different times for different people.


Why don't you just say what your read on Katsuki is.
I don't think you've properly stated a read all game - at least I can't remember any - so I'm sure it will be a refreshing exercise for you.

I liked you more when you were a useless twat in PickYourPartners.

I didn't notice it on first pass because these posts were on my side, but rereading the exchange has made it evident that they suck.

[chamber]

The posts from Llamarbe that I read when I replaced in looked super obv town. Tbh I'd be looking at ESP for scum

IIRC, Ceph-Scum = Esp-Town

But it was like a week long night so I'd have to reread to know why

Can you elaborate.

[chamber]

Just who I want to talk to.

Why me, exactly? Because of playing scum with him in 165?

Mostly that, and also wanting a known wall to bounce some stuff off. Known surface irregularities lead to predictable flight paths. If we're not agreeing, I'll have a better idea whether the problem lies with you or me.

Do people actually talk like this?

[chamber]

Oh, also, after reviewing Cephrir's iso, I don't think hes scum with T S O.

[chamber]

I just wanna say it makes no sense to kill Ceph if the scum had to do that. He was in an okay position(he had detractors, but on the whole he was being townread) and has a power role, unless we're suspecting a 4-person scumteam with all power roles, which I find exceedingly unlikely from mykonian. If we're thinking of permutations, I'd guess White Flag before scum offing their own.

This seems like pretty shallow thinking. For instance, one could reach the conclusion that in a random scum team cephrir would be a low probability kill choice, which would then lead one to believe that its somewhat unlikely that the mafia were forced to kill themselves, like you have reached; however, it should also lead one to ask what, if any, combination of players as scum would make Cephrir that best shot?

[chamber]

Yeah. He had both his scumpartners in bad territory in NY 164's first reads list.

Calling post more 'bad' territory seems like a bit of a stretch, the list he made this game probably has a much higher correlation with the 'nullscum' and 'scum' lists of that game, which contained exactly 1 suspect.

[chamber]

Yeah. He had both his scumpartners in bad territory in NY 164's first reads list.

Calling post more 'bad' territory seems like a bit of a stretch, the list he made this game

probably has a much higher correlation with the 'nullscum' and 'scum' lists of that game, which contained exactly 1 suspect

.

I keep rereading this, and I keep not understanding what you mean by the bolded.

On his list from the previous game he had it broken down into a bunch of categories (unlike this game) he put one team member in 'nullscum' and one in 'needs to post more', I'm saying his 'willing to lynch' list from this game probably more strongly correlates with his 'nullscum' and 'scum' categories, in which he only put 1 member, not 2.

[chamber]

Why not? You think Guyett(Tammy)/Ceph + ??

huh? I don't need to know who I suspect to know who I don't suspect. His interactions with T S O don't look scum-scum to me.

[chamber]

Unvote

thinking.

[chamber]

Espeonage is scum.

[chamber]

Vote Espeonage

[chamber]

Hes lying about what happened to llamarble.

[chamber]

I did something to llamarble not on that list. I'm reasonably confident that I wasn't blocked. I'd rather not say more.

[chamber]

I did something to llamarble not on that list. I'm reasonably confident that I wasn't blocked. I'd rather not say more.

I don't even know what kind of role barring recruiter could have hit him that wouldn't be in that group. Do we have another secret cult?

There are a number of options. Such as blocked (maybe I'm a jailkeeper . Of course thats not me claiming jailkeeper, I'll leave your scummates confused.

[chamber]

Jailkeeper traditionally comes under Protected. NEXT

Clarify with mod please.

I already have clarified that my action would hypothetically show up.

[chamber]

Wow, I was popular >_>

Does your voyeur action count as the investigate?

Hes lying and has no results on you. He just made them up.

[chamber]

I already have clarified that my action would hypothetically show up.

I'm assuming the result of the clarification is that it would show up in addition to the three he mentioned, not as one of them?

I have no idea why Espy would lie about voyeur results though, even as scum.

The distinction doesn't matter in this instance .

[chamber]

You've caught me, I'm not a jailkeeper. You are still lying though.

[chamber]

The word doesn't matter. I don't need to prove myself. The town shouldn't make me. They should just lynch you.

[chamber]

I should clarify now that its still TECHNICALLY possible that I got blocked. I just find it to be highly unlikely, and believe that everyone else will too should he turn up town and I explain myself.

[chamber]

I should clarify now that its still TECHNICALLY possible that I got blocked. I just find it to be highly unlikely, and believe that everyone else will too should he turn up town and I explain myself.

It's pretty clear that if I am scum I'm going to be screwing up fairly regularly. I don't see why it's a good idea to lynch me over a not entirely sure if it counts. I have what I saw.

Your action counts as an investigation, if you are the mafia you know you tried to kill him and that he didn't die. Thus you throw on those 3 abilities. And they cover the vast number of abilities in the game. I don't think you could coast to end game on that claim, but it got you through day 1, and would have gotten you through today baring my unlikely role.

[chamber]

This :is: a theme game so I guess it's conceivable Chamber is some kind of lyncher?
This would be very convenient for him though, so that's not all that high probability.

If you look closely enough, you can probably figure out what I am. I was close to claiming BEFORE he claimed results, which is evident if you reread how things went. And given that you can probably get really close to what I am.

[chamber]

I should clarify now that its still TECHNICALLY possible that I got blocked. I just find it to be highly unlikely, and believe that everyone else will too should he turn up town and I explain myself.

like 1% at most. That's likely giving it too much credit.

[chamber]

Man I misread that yes in the pm. Well then yeah I guess another investigation must have hit him.

Really now?

Using this stuff feels dirty. Just use me counter claiming his result with a <1% chance of error.

[chamber]

my actual number was at least an order of magnitude smaller than 1%.

[chamber]

I'm saying that I was being generous with 1%.

[chamber]

ETL was pretty obv town, but she was also pretty clueless in this game, I'm surprised the mafia felt they could make that kill. Its telling if they don't think they are super far behind.

What's ETL's alignment, myko?

I find it interesting that you'd specify alignment. It seemed obvious to me that etl was town. So obvious that I didn't even realize the flip was missing until I read your post. But if you were looking for role and not alignment...

[chamber]

To be fair, you and I were the obvious doc-protect options.
I still haven't got a good notion of what you did to me.

We were, but I feel the mafia are so far behind in most 3:12 states that they just need to shoot at one of us anyway, and hope things go thier way. So either its 4:11, or its 3:12 and the guy left has wiggled his way into a highly confirmed spot, or its 3:12 and the guy left isn't playing well or its 3:12 and the guy left has some OP ability he feels gives him a shot still.

I highly doubt its an OP ability, because then the game would be mafia sided to start, and I'd rather not assume the worst of the opposition when we are seemingly this far ahead and have room to play around some other options. So I'd like to act as though its either 4:11 or the scum has wiggled their way into our inner circle.

You can worry about it if the mafia are dead and the games still going.

[chamber]

I find it interesting that you'd specify alignment. It seemed obvious to me that etl was town. So obvious that I didn't even realize the flip was missing until I read your post. But if you were looking for role and not alignment...

alignment, role, whatever. The fact you weren't looking for the flip speaks more to you're engagement to the game than anything alignment-indicative.

I'm pretty engaged right now.

[chamber]

I feel like katsuki is the most likely option in case 2.

This was my short list last night if you want to cross reference:

cabd
natirasha
fferyllt
projectmatt
pjovek

[chamber]

I feel like the reasons for me 'clearing' the other people were stronger than those reasons. However, I'm clearly willing to admit potential fallibility, I posted that list not as a means of accusing those on it, but as a means of showing who I -wasn't- considering, to see how me and llamarble lined up in that way.

[chamber]

And yes, Natrisha was my top suspect coming into this morning.

[chamber]

I feel like katsuki is the most likely option in case 2.

Guyett is probably the 2nd best option. You suspected him n1, so make sense for that kill from his perspective (though you were also pretty obv!town and credit needs to be given to that as a potential reason for your kill). And we both ultimately backed off his wagon yesterday.

[chamber]

And we agree on Nati.

Agreed. I'm much less sure now.

[chamber]

12:3 with no power roles on either side starts quite mafia sided. Now obviously we know its not all vanilla on the town side or mafia side but ~. In the case that there is only 1 left I think the mafia have a roleblocker as their last ability anyway. Espeonage was way too but hurt over my probabilities.

[chamber]

NK makes no sense if they have a RB left, then again, I can't really see how the NK makes sense either way, so whatever.

12:3 with no power roles on either side starts quite mafia sided.

literally what

12:2 is mafia sided.

[chamber]

I'd normally give you the benefit of the doubt and would have said that you're trolling already, only I've played in a 12:3 setup on this site where I had a scumteam with no real powerroles and town had the same amount of nightly KP as we did + other PR goodies.

So I'm kind of short on faith in that regard.

But I want to believe
11:4
I believe
I beliebe
I'm a Belieber

I was specifically talking all vanilla. 11:2 mountainous has an awful win rate for town, and 12:2 doesn't give an extra lynch.

[chamber]

Link the game.

It was called "Mafia of the Raptured" or something, 2lazy2look4it

I'd normally give you the benefit of the doubt and would have said that you're trolling already, only I've played in a 12:3 setup on this site where I had a scumteam with no real powerroles and town had the same amount of nightly KP as we did + other PR goodies.

So I'm kind of short on faith in that regard.

But I want to believe
11:4
I believe
I beliebe
I'm a Belieber

I was specifically talking all vanilla. 11:2 mountainous has an awful win rate for town, and 12:2 doesn't give an extra lynch.

So am I.
12:3 vanilla is horribly town favored.

Town loses with 5 consecutive mislynches, Mafia loses with 3.
While town has 4 times the voting power of scum.

How anybody could ever think that to be balanced, or even mafia favored, I will never understand.

A good vanilla balance would be 12:4, in a 15 player game I'd assume the missing town member to make it 11:4 is compensated accordingly with town PRs.

You are laughably wrong. 1:4 ratio is only balanced by heavy town power relative to mafia.

[chamber]

....

Alright, if this is a site-wide infestation, I'll assume the game is a freewin then.

I meant 1:3 ratio, or 1/4 sorry. And I know these is a bit counter intuitive, it was to me too like 5 years ago. There are a couple under lying causes; the first is that MS has a large gap in experience, and there is no match making, so the worst player and best player in a game often very greatly in skill. The best players may have an average 50:50 hit rate unaided, but even they have bad games and good games, so sometimes are like 70:30 instead of 50:50. The scum get to choose who they kill at night so they are going to choose first, the best players that are accurate, and the best players that look very town. This means that although the towns lynch chance might start close to 50:50, it quickly decreases. The opposite happens for the mafia. Its their weakest members that tend to get caught and lynched first. So the end game of an all vanilla mafia is often quite sided against the town in terms of player skill. The end result is that most towns are nowhere close to 50:50 by the end of the game when unaided by roles.

[chamber]

Alright, so considering you're claiming an unspecified PR, there is an unspecified protective role about and there is also what looks a lot like a multi-shot vig about, and considering the flipped godfather there is likely some investigative PR around as well... I'd say "heavy town PR" describes the current look of things rather well.

Meh I'll go back to assuming 11:4 then.
Unfortunately that means I'll actually have to read peoples, will do that the day after tomorrow probably maybe.
I'm usually pretty busy on weekends but this sunday mite b better. We'll see.

Can you link your home site?

[chamber]

@Chamber: Are you going to actually be helpful, or are you keep on sticking to a stagnant wagon that has lost all of its steam because of policy reasons that are quite outdated? I might not think you're scum, but your still being mighty anti town.
@Tammy: I said I was happy to wagon on you. And I'm sure you're quite aware that there are usually more than one scum in a game, hence I am perfectly capable and welcome to think more than just you are scum, and just as welcome to be voting other suspects. I might not be pleased with the results, but he told me that it might be an indicator and I am happy to take away that info. He didn't sound certain and thus the non-committal but honest answer is entirely fine in my book. Would you rather he said she's only like this when scum so you can feel better about trying to drive a wagon on him?

@Tammy: I said I was happy to wagon on you. And I'm sure you're quite aware that there are usually more than one scum in a game, hence I am perfectly capable and welcome to think more than just you are scum, and just as welcome to be voting other suspects. I might not be pleased with the results, but he told me that it might be an indicator and I am happy to take away that info. He didn't sound certain and thus the non-committal but honest answer is entirely fine in my book. Would you rather he said she's only like this when scum so you can feel better about trying to drive a wagon on him?

It didn't bother you in the slightest that he didn't actually also comment on my town game? Because quite frankly I could link you to more town games with me being sarcastic or sassy or whatever word you want to use than scum. But you took someone at face value who claimed to know my meta...or what did you think "and yeah, what kinda tammy meta do you want" meant? I don't know I guess it's just me, but when someone sounds sure of my meta, I'd expect them to give you something more than just a scum game of mine, especially considering that's what you asked for. It just sounds like you were satisfied with someone giving you feedback for what fit your agenda and you weren't interested for more.

And your last sentence is bullshit. I don't have a solid read on cabd; I'm not really so stupid as to go oh he's town so soon when I don't have anyone really familiar with him vouching for him, but I'm not even trying to wagon him. My vote is on you. My problem is that with you, and part of it is that you asked a question and became satisfied that he only gave part of the answer, which validated whatever propaganda you're trying to spin.

I asked if it was indicitive or part of only one alignment. I got a negative answer to the former. That constitutes answering imo. I didn't stick a vote on you because of it. I took it in to consideration. It's the fallout that has put you in the scumreads and it was the tone that put you under consideration in the first place. I didn't vocalise that I thought you were scummy until the fallout. I don't know what agenda you think I was using it for, but it's a falsity to blame it on the meta read that was advertised as not being all inclusive.

That's not answering the question. And see above.

Yeah, tammys not mafia.

[chamber]

I told you guys that before day 2 threadlock happened.

I don't think your reasoning was the same as mine there, but perhaps it was. At any rate she didn't make my short list from earlier? I'm just reviewing things now to double check.

[chamber]

I wasn't intentionally abrasive in that post. I was actually coming from a place of "Ok, backing up here and going to try a more cooperative approach".

If you are actually looking to interact with me I'd take your thoughts on cabd.

[chamber]

Where'd the activity go?

[chamber]

You people are so boring at times.

\We have two scum flips. Be less boring yourself or you are likely getting lynched.

[chamber]

How well do cabd and tammy know each other?
Is he also from talkrational then?

[chamber]

Hmm. I wonder if this was a 3+ traitor setup and the mafia recruited with their neighbourizor. It would explain no one coming forward as the target. It could also explain why the mafia don't feel they are completely in the weeds.

[chamber]

The ETL kill is too safe. I've gone over this.

[chamber]

So you think if they felt more in the weeds they would have risked running up against a protection?

Yes.

[chamber]

What if that's exactly what happened though?

It's not what happened. The mafia shot ETL.

[chamber]

What if that's exactly what happened though?

It's not what happened. The mafia shot ETL.

You can get off my list for that question though.

[chamber]

Its never occurred to me before, just how powerful it is to have information only the mafia have.

[chamber]

I wasn't intentionally abrasive in that post. I was actually coming from a place of "Ok, backing up here and going to try a more cooperative approach".

If you are actually looking to interact with me I'd take your thoughts on cabd.

My thoughts on cabd will necessarily be abridged because this is an arms race and I play with him too often to give up many perceived advantages.

I think he's town.

His method of sorting me was lazy, counterproductive and potentially disastrous at least for me. I wanted to scumread him for that, but it fit with his overall level of apathy and he may even feel that it led to a more confident read. :/ He thinks I'm really difficult to read. Or claims to.

The one time I've seen him spectacularly apathetic in a scum game, though, almost the whole scum team had been dragged into the light of day on day 1. It was in all likelihood a no-win situation, I guess.

Once he finally townread me then the level of cooperation that I kind of expect when he's town started to happen. I feel like he's still not quite firing on all cylinders, though. There was a question he asked me on day 2 that surprised me because it seemed like he only got about half my rationale for wanting to talk to him about Ceph's willing to lynch pile.

Yesterday we had a pile of fresh data to kick around. Today, not so much. The night kill was low info IMO. There might be some nuggets buried in ETL's reads. And, there might be something more to glean from vca, though that's not exactly my forte.

Because you are being so opaque (and because I don't value your opinion at any baseline value really) most of this isn't really usable for me. Give me a confidence % anyway though.

[chamber]

How well do cabd and tammy know each other?
Is he also from talkrational then?

http://www.sixprizes.com/forums/forums/mafia.66/

I've only played with tammy once or twice.

Your home site wasn't important outside of how it related to FF's.

[chamber]

About 70%

The nature of this game kinda unplugs some of what he could be doing in the way of town-minded gamebreaking. Otherwise, he's pretty much hit most of what I know to look for.

At this point isn't 70% a scum read??

[chamber]

Even if we assume two scum and that you me and llama are clear from your pov that's 2/8 or 1/4 scum or every other player having a 75% town rate.

[chamber]

Even if we assume two scum and that you me and llama are clear from your pov that's 2/8 or 1/4 scum or every other player having a 75% town rate.

Read confidence and statistical likelihood are two entirely different things to me.

They have to be related if you are sane. I'll just take your read on cadb as a weak scum read.

[chamber]

How well do cabd and tammy know each other?
Is he also from talkrational then?

http://www.sixprizes.com/forums/forums/mafia.66/

I've only played with tammy once or twice.

Can you give me a list of games you were in on MS that you didn't hydra? Your topics are filled with spectating and hydras ._. Please don't tell me which are scum or town before hand either, thanks.

[chamber]

Vote Pjo

Pretty sure this is it.

[chamber]

Totes didn't see that one coming.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I would still happily policy lynch you. Thats not what this is though.

[chamber]

I am.

[chamber]

Totes didn't see that one coming.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I would still happily policy lynch you. Thats not what this is though.

Oh?

I wasn't aware you had ACTUAL REASONS for thinking that I am mafia.
Let's hear them, it'll at least be amusing for me, I'm sure.

As a rule I don't debate at all in mafia, much less with those I think are scum. Its an exercise in frustration. The primary thing though is your interactions with the dead scum and theirs with you. I called this out between you and espeonage on day1, before he flipped, and now hes scum~.

[chamber]

but the alternative is having poor reads.

I don't claim 100% accuracy. I don't think anyone can claim that truthfully. So I guess it depends on what you mean by 'poor'. Arguing with the suspect is hardly the only way to test reads. I just choose other means.

[chamber]

And yet you want to lynch me for nothing more than for being wrong about Espeonage.

This isn't what I said, and is why I hate arguing with my suspects.

[chamber]

Vote for Pjo and if the game is still going after hes lynched worry about the double bus possibility?

[chamber]

I could go for a Pjovek lynch, but not until Nati gives me a reason to unvote

Meh. If my entrance wasn't enough to convince you, then I don't think anything I can say will.

If I checked would this pattern be typical of your town games?

[chamber]

So did you do anything with those links or was it just for fun?

I did.

[chamber]

If I checked would this pattern be typical of your town games?

I vary my approach a lot depending on the game, but once I get apathetic towards a game, yeah, I would say this is the case.

What factors that you know of contribute to you losing motivation?

[chamber]

l-2

[chamber]

Oh hey the sites actually back. If he has no claim give him rope.

[chamber]

I'm not voting for pjo cause hes an asshole. If others wanted to lynch him for that reason I'd be all over it and that is why I was voting him all of day1. Right now however I'm voting him because I reread everyone in relation to the 2 dead scum and did some metaing and after hours of work came up with him as the most likely partner.

[chamber]

Chamber you think there's any possibility of a 11/4 here? :/

I do, though I think it was most likely 3 and a traitor not straight 4.

[chamber]

Chamber you think there's any possibility of a 11/4 here? :/

I do, though I think it was most likely 3 and a traitor not straight 4.

I've been rereading him and it's kind of mindboggling how alignment neutral his posts are when you take them apart.

Katsuki? Pjo? One of the flipped scum? I have no idea who you mean.

[chamber]

hours of work

lol

It did take me hours. I didn't spend hours on you individually.

[chamber]

Chamber you think there's any possibility of a 11/4 here? :/

I do, though I think it was most likely 3 and a traitor not straight 4.

I've been rereading him and it's kind of mindboggling how alignment neutral his posts are when you take them apart.

Katsuki? Pjo? One of the flipped scum? I have no idea who you mean.

I quoted the wrong post. I meant to quote 1839. I'm talking about pjovik.

What do you mean by alignment neutral then?

[chamber]

Hearing from projectmatt would be nice too.

Have you started working on the game?

[chamber]

What patterns do you expect to see when looking at vote counts cabd?

[chamber]

What patterns do you expect to see when looking at vote counts cabd?

Mostly, scum not working together in a bloc. I've seen blocvoting a few times, and used it once myself, but cephrir isn't the type to play like that as scum.

I disagree. I think scum work together fairly often.

[chamber]

SO what does the voting pattern say to you?

Nothing really. I think they died way too early to leave enough data for it to be meaningful. I think esps willingness to vote for guyett day 2 is a slight detractor from thinking guyett is scum, but I feel my other reason is stronger anyway.

[chamber]

What patterns do you expect to see when looking at vote counts cabd?

Mostly, scum not working together in a bloc. I've seen blocvoting a few times, and used it once myself, but cephrir isn't the type to play like that as scum.

I know you're all anticases and shit; but can you at least explain what your followup is to the shit you asked me and I answered?

Why would I want to do this? Outside of the fact that Pjo is still my top read I don't feel its meaningful to share.
I don't like indicating strength of town reads in most situations, so if I decided you were likely town based on meta, I don't know why I'd want to share that. If I got truly conclusive results that you were scum I'd just be voting you over Pjo. Anywhere in between if you actually are scum I think its better to keep it to myself so that you don't know if you need to try to kill me tonight or not.

[chamber]

I did spot one thing that's presence had a 100% rate of indicating that you were scum, but its lack of presence wasn't conclusive.

[chamber]

Looking at the vote counts more The votecount in 1177 Stands out the most. Thats a strange switch for cephrir. It could indicate that no scum were on Espeonage at that point and he wanted to make sure there was one if it went through.

[chamber]

Looking at the vote counts more The votecount in 1177 Stands out the most. Thats a strange switch for cephrir. It could indicate that no scum were on Espeonage at that point and he wanted to make sure there was one if it went through.

natirasha, guyett, projectmatt, fferyllt; assuming all of those are town and you're town; scum is in:


bbmolla
TSO
Llamarble
pjovek
Katsuki

I don't think it's marble. That would leave molla/pjo/kats/TSO.

Anyone could have made this post. It didn't even need to be made. How about some of your takes on the vote counts? Also, you are in that group for anyone but yourself.

[chamber]

It doesn't piss me off. It makes me think you are more likely scum when you take part in a conversation by posting public data and parroting conclusions drawn by myself rather than offering your own.

[chamber]

Well that's less fun.

I can come off as angry I guess? But I'm just terse. Other than pjo no ones made posts to the point of angering me.

[chamber]

The scum clearly spotted his vig softclaim, Espeonage pointed it out. You can talk about it openly.

[chamber]

?

[chamber]

The problem isn't that I can't follow your reasoning. Its that you think the scum also couldn't have for some reason. Or that katsuki couldn't, even though its all using public info.

[chamber]

If there is a vig other than katsuki why would they kill cephrir and not katsuki?

[chamber]

What makes you say that?

[chamber]

You should probably just explicitly claim anyway.

[chamber]

There may well be a vig, but it's not Katsuki.

There was a pretty obvious vig breadcrumb from somebody actually believable.

I didn't see that. Mind pointing it out?

[chamber]

There may well be a vig, but it's not Katsuki.

There was a pretty obvious vig breadcrumb from somebody actually believable.

I didn't see that. Mind pointing it out?

Considering scum is apparantly dumb enough to have missed it, yes, yes I do mind pointing it out.

There was no 'vig' kill last night, and as I've previously stated, I'm pretty confident the scum have a roleblocker. How do you know they missed it and didn't instead roleblock him?

[chamber]

Because I'm pretty close to confirmed town and asking, and you aren't going to be around to say so much longer, which you probably want to say if you are town.

[chamber]

I said I was pretty close to confirmed town, which is simply true. I counter claimed a mafia member. So I either took a huge gambit as mafia or am 3rd party, both of which are low probabilities even when combined.

1: I'm not sure there is such a softclaim. It benefits you to claim there is to dirty katsuki, your counter wagon.
2: If there is I'm not sure I believe it.

[chamber]

It benefits you to claim there is to dirty katsuki, your counter wagon.

Sure, the one that himself admitted that he's not the vig. I want to fling dirt on him by saying he's not a vig. Totally.
That's exactly my intention.
You are so smart, I'm learning a lot from you.

He said that after you first said your thing.

[chamber]

K, Lets just lynch pjo.

[chamber]

I find it highly unlikely that it would be straight 11-4. Highly unlikely. It only seems plausible to you now because we are so far ahead.

[chamber]

heh. They are so far behind*

[chamber]

If it's white flag the game would still end with a scum lynch here.

[chamber]

FFerylit, what do you think of Cabds recent contribution? Are you still waiting for more or are you willing to end it now?

[chamber]

FFerylit, what do you think of Cabds recent contribution?

This was the more important half of the question.

[chamber]

I don't think that describes how I see Cabds posts. Though me and VI have never been one to see many things the same way.

[chamber]

Hes had apathetic scum games. I agree that his play in this game isn't typical of his active town or scum meta. I found it much harder to tell the difference between his apathetic metas.

[chamber]

@matt, the entire town except for you isn't accountable for the day1 mislynch. I was actively against an ABR lynch, perhaps the voice most directly against it. Natirasha was on the competing wagon, and I suspect others that overlap simply limped on to make a lynch happen. Those circumstances aren't these circumstance.

[chamber]

Make stuff happen in the mean time and I wont be upset. But if you just sit back passively like you did for the previous 2 days, I probably would be, yes.

[chamber]

I'm not pretending there aren't a few OK reasons to scumread Pjovek but I find any actual evidence against him fairly weak/uncompelling and unable to counter the town tells.

I don't know what game you've been playing for the last 2 years but in mafia town tells don't counteract scum ones. The scum have an incentive to look like town, so all good scum should be town telling at times. The converse isn't true though.

[chamber]

So prod dodges while we wait for content then?

You could always hammer pjo.

[chamber]

Hes implicitly claimed vanilla.

[chamber]

If project matt has nothing in the next 24 hours, I was planning on it.

(Also i've yet to even see a real claim out of PJO so you can count this as intent to hammer or whatever)

Has it been close enough to 24h yet?

[chamber]

Someone else can take the lead today. I'm lost.

[chamber]

? Thats not how elite body guards work.

[chamber]

I really think their are 2 now. Yesterday despite what I had said I was mostly acting under the assumption that it was 1 still. And with 2 it changes a lot of my analysis which is why I'm lost until I do more work. I'm going on vacation from this friday till next saturday and will be v/la for that period. I should be able to keep up and give surface thoughts, but I don't expect to be able to put in any real work this game day, so the rest of you, go do it.

[chamber]

Given protective is dead, is there a reason not to mass claim?

This post has at least 2 things wrong with it. Can you explain what you were thinking?

[chamber]

I think we likely have some sort of investigative role in this game. Obviously use your own judgement about when you should claim, but if you are a traditional cop with 2 non dead results, I think you should come forward today at some point. Doesn't have to be right now.

[chamber]

He seems to have answered it for me, so I really don't see the point.

I didn't.

[chamber]

I'm pretty sure that if TSO wants to start the massclaim that I'd be cool with it.

[chamber]

I'm typically good at feeling when mass claims are appropriate

I doubt that.

[chamber]

Okay well one of you are scum.

EH, neither are in my top 4.

[chamber]

I'm not very confident in any reads atm, so I'm willing to be convinced.

[chamber]

Cabd is probably my top pick for scum, but again, not so sure on reads

[chamber]

That's not the townchamber I'm accustomed to.

I typically have periods in games where I'm like this. I just normally express it by letting other wagons form and stuff without me and then just voting without saying anything. But no other wagons are just forming for me to sheep.

[chamber]

Calling for a specific role to claim is a bit different than asking for a massclaim. Also, I could hypothetically support a massclaim while still finding flaws in your stated reasons.

[chamber]

That's not the townchamber I'm accustomed to.

I typically have periods in games where I'm like this. I just normally express it by letting other wagons form and stuff without me and then just voting without saying anything. But no other wagons are just forming for me to sheep.

I realize that I'm more accustomed to your f2f play, and that I typically have trouble reading you right on forums, but you're suppose to be supertownchamber... the above is the stuff I do, not you. >: (

You think I bussed espeonage day2? I probably don't look super town right now because I normally put effort into looking town, and I haven't felt the need.

[chamber]

Hence not feeling the need to go out of my way to look town.

[chamber]

VT

Ok. We should stop massclaiming. I thought you had soft claimed something earlier and was expecting you to have a real reason for wanting a massclaim.

[chamber]

Someones gotta step up and take this game by the balls, and its not going to be me.

[chamber]

Vote cabd