Scummies Invitational 2012 (Game Over)
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
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"Reck quickhammering doesn't make sense" - Bulbazak
I've done this time and time again, both as scum and as town. That is what Fate was hinting at in thread, that he wanted me to quickhammer. It's what we've done before, and despite my hesitance, I got a gleam in my eye that you knew he was going to flip scum and were lining up mislynches.
"I took it as a sign you were partners, but then once he flipped town, I did whatever I could to make Reck-scum make sense in my head because I'm tunneling like a moron".green shirt thursdays-
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In post 2388, Benmage wrote:I only mentioned Reck misrepping Bulbs motives... Bulb never says anything about Reck misrepping.
go on...In post 2349, Bulbazak wrote:Reck was misrepping me and setting me up to be the day's mislynchgreen shirt thursdays-
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No no no no.
Roleblocker could easily be scum PR, and it would make sense with the amount of PRs we have already. We lynch SD, then deal with Fate based on his flip. If SD is scum, great. If SD is town, having a compulsive RB potentially blocking town abilities is more of a liability.
Lynch. Test the claim.green shirt thursdays-
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We don't need to lynch Fate today. Weneedto lynch SD for a number of reasons:
- If Fate IS the SK, then it will be basically confirmed upon SD's flip.
- If Fate ISN'T the SK, then it's a waste of a lynch and it leaves us staring down SD again tomorrow (because if Fate flips anything other than SK, it just means that there's another explanation for the missing kill).
And, probably most of all, I'm way more interested in lynching scum than lynching SK at this point. With an SK alive, crosskills could keep us in the game. With no SK alive, I'm pretty sure that makes tomorrow LYLO. I'm not sure, I haven't done the math in full, but I'm pretty sure SK hunting is the 100000% wrong way to go today (and if SD is scum, doubly so).green shirt thursdays-
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
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This means literally nothing, you're just using irrelevant attacks to try and discredit me. Bulbazak's insistence that me/Fate are scum IN THE FACE OF THE CLAIMED POWER ROLE SAYING THAT'S NOT POSSIBLE is either ignorance or blind tunneling, or both, and either makes him purposefully obtuse town or scum who just doesn't realize what's happening right now.In post 2443, Benmage wrote:
Says the wanting to test the flip to test the claim...In post 2441, xRECKONERx wrote:BULBA.
DO YOU REALIZE THE ONLY OPTION HERE IS THAT FATE IS THESERIAL KILLERACCORDING TO SD'S CLAIM?
THERE'S NO FUCKING WAY WE'RE SCUMBUDDIES.
ARE YOU SHITTING ME? FUCK
The facts are simple: lynching Fate (regardless of him being SK or town) gives us nothing today and potentially harms us tomorrow, lynching SD (regardless of him being town or scum) gives us at least something today and sets us up with more information and better decision making tomorrow.green shirt thursdays-
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This is an interesting point on the mod meta that makes the SD claim a little more believable in my eyes, but I still don't think Fate is the play today. SK has to hit scum soon, and so do we, so for the moment, if FateIn post 2444, Oversoul wrote:Damn... I don't really know what to think of this claim.
Town points for SD for his thought process on the actions each night. Additional town points for SD based on the compulsive modifier that was used on the framer in Zor's Always On... Zor's way of making sure a particularly incriminating role gets used each night...
Plus the possibility of getting double day out of a Fate lynch...
Damn... Sorry Fate... Time to think.isthe Serial Killer, our goals are mutual.green shirt thursdays-
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Wait, holy shit, we still have FIFTEEN players alive?
On D3, with 1 scum dead, that gives us... uh, hold on:
15 players (10-4-1)
IF SK LYNCH: D4 = 9-4, D5 = 7-4, D6 = 5-4 (LYLO)
IF TOWN LYNCH...
...AND MAFIA/SK CROSSKILL: D4 = 9-3, D5 = 7-3, D6 = 5-3 (MYLO)
...AND SK SHOOTS MAFIA TEAM: D4 = 9-3-1, D5 = 7-2-1, D6 = 5-1-1, D7 crosskill = win, or D7 kill one faction = 4-1, D8 = 2-1
Hmm.
This math is too hard and has too many variables, but I think the SK killing mafia is the best? I can't believe it's only D3 and there are still 15 players left, wow. Regardless, I don't want to off the SK yet.green shirt thursdays-
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
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Fate isn't confirmed scum. He's only confirmed scum if SD is telling the truth, which we only know he's doing if he's actually town. With SD dead as a town RB, THEN we can go off of his claims.
Why is your theory that Fate only carried out the kill N2? Why not N1 too? Why does itmatterin the grand scheme of things? We're still missing kills either way -- you're going out of your way to stretch the realm of probability that the N1 kill was stopped for a completely different reason altogether. And, let's be honest, adding a protective role to a setup that, in your mind, contains a town RB, a town cop, and a town adjusting investigator seems to be a little bit broken, in terms of balance, especially with a dead goon revealed.
Ido notthink Fate is mafia. Ido thinkit's possible he's the SK, but even in that case, he can be dealt with at any point and possibly provide us some value in the meantime.
I'll explain it again this time:
- If we lynch Fate, regardless of if he flips SK or town, it tells us nothing about SD, because people could just go "Oh, well must've been something else stopping the kills!" and we're back to square one with no information.
- If we lynch SD, regardless of if he flips scum or town, it tells ussomethingabout the gamestate because we'll know what his actual ability is/was, and we'll know if he was telling the truth or not.
It makes no sense to lynch Fate first, we can easily lynch him tomorrow if SD turns up right and town. Bulb, you're tunneling so hard that you're doing mental acrobatics to try and make a Fate/Reck scumteam make sense in your head. You think, with Fate's head on the block, I'd forgo a chance to bus him? I bushardin the motherfucking paint. And, furthermore, you think that as scum, I'd try to corral hito & LLD into secretly starting a vote train on him because of his refusal to communicate with us D1 in the Always On party? NOTHING in this game fits with a Fate/Reck team. I believe it was you who said you don't look at associative tells and look at each person individually -- well, I suggest you stop playing such an obtuse game and start thinking about what is actually happening.green shirt thursdays-
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Oh, holy fuck, I completely missed that part of the rules.
In which case, scum DEFINITELY want the SK lynched because he can pose a threat to them and they can't kill him. In which case, I'm DEFINITELY not lynching Fate today.
Mafia kills instead "roleblock" the SK... which, if I'm understanding correctly, literally couldn't have happened yet (because N1 there was vig shot + mafia shot, N2 there was one kill).
Mafia benefit HEAVILY from a SK lynch, town only benefit slightly. LYNCHING THE SK IS NOT THE PLAY TODAY OR ANY TIME SOON.
And we're certainly not taking our double day right now when we're so low on information to use, the double day would be MUCH more beneficial later.green shirt thursdays-
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@Bulbazak:
#1) My point wasn't that SD can't tell the truth as scum, it was that Fate wasn't "CONFIRMED SCUM" as you suggested UNLESS SD flipped town and we could then verify he was telling the truth (since town wouldn't lie about that, but scum might).
#2) How do you know that there are protective roles in the game? I must've missed it, because I thoughthitowas the role that could check if other roles are in the game (note: this is not rolefishing, this is an attempt to understand what is influencing your POV).
#3) If I were mafia, I'd be leaping at the chance to lynch the SK for the reasons outlined above (mafia can't kill him, but he can kill mafia, meaning he's purely a liability). Keeping the SK around is not a mafia tactic, especially given the circumstances surrounding the SK in this game.
#4) If Fate flips SK, it still doesn't mean that SD is town, I guess is what I meant to say. If Fate flips town, it could've been someone else stopping the kills. If Fate flips SK, it literally means NOTHING about SD's alignment.
#5) The point is thatwe can't be sure he's telling the truth unless he's town, so we can't take his claims as the Word of God. Are you seriously suggesting that you'd blindly follow a confirmed scum's reads/directions, knowing that scum have purely selfish motivations and their entire purpose in this game is to LIE?
#6) It's possible he is the SK and is just being ballsy with his play, but I find it unlikely. I find it pretty IMPOSSIBLE that he could be mafia, though.
#7) I had suspicion of Fate D1 early on, but you have to understand, I hang out with him in real life and can talk to him face-to-face. Of COURSE after I talked with him and got a read on him I'd be convinced he's town or scum... playing face-to-face mafia while everyone else is playing forum mafia is a HUGE gamechanger, one that you've constantly ignored in your relentless tunnelling on the imaginary Fate/Reck scumteam.green shirt thursdays-
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Still disliking how Bulbazak first tried to tie me to a Zdenek scum flip, and when Zdenek flipped town, still found reasons to come after me. Now he's trying to tie me to a Fate scum flip, and when Fate flips not-mafia, he'll still find a way to come after me.
The thing is, it makes ZERO sense for mafia to try to setup mislynches like that and tie me down to people they KNOW aren't going to flip what they're banking they are, but it could just be a very stupid game of WIFOM.green shirt thursdays-
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We don't lynch Fate today, and we don't lynch him at all unless SalmonellaDreams flips town RB. If he flips scum RB, we can consider the options.
Double day now isn't as useful as double day later, and if Fateisthe SK, it's not like mafia are going to be able to kill him or waste a shot on him just to RB him. And if they do, then it's less kills flying at us. I actually think leaving the SK alive is the optimal, smartest play. I can't think of any positive benefit to killing the SK now, other than "the SK might hit town" but he also might hit mafia, and he also might absorb a mafia kill which would STOP his kill.green shirt thursdays-
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Mmm, yeah, hypothetically.In post 2470, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:He's been roleblocked for two nights, Reck...?
I really still just wanna lynch SD and figure this shit out.green shirt thursdays-
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
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What is my motivation in stopping a lynch on Fate, here? Is it SCUM motivated? Sure, only if we're buddies, and we're not, and if SD stopped the kill both nights then it's literally IMPOSSIBLE for us to be buddies... and if Fate IS the SK, it's actually NOT beneficial for me to stop his lynch. Is it SK motivated? No, it's a completely null play if I'm the SK. Is it TOWN motivated? Yes, yes it is -- because I truly believe that Fate isn't scum, and while there's an outside chance he's the SK, keeping the SK around benefits town more than scum at this juncture, and I have a really hard time believing a RB claim as town no questions asked, so I want some clarity before we just pump the brakes.
I should be lynched because we have a claim from someone who was at L-1 and I want to test it to see if it's legitimate? Are you high?green shirt thursdays-
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
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@Bulbazak: Because Fate is someone who has had interest in lynching expressed on him, and it's an easy way to explain the missing kills while buying some town credit? Like, of course mafia, if they have to fakeclaim, are going to fakeclaim whatever makes them seem most town/increases their chances of survival. And no, there aren't always protective roles, especially with so many other power roles already. And, as I've explained already, it doesn't increase the odds of winning because mafia can still get hit by SK shots as well, and at this point, it's much more in the SK's favor to shoot mafia instead of town.
You're being fucking obtuse on purpose and misreading what I'm saying just to frustrate me.
SD isn't confirmed scumyet; if heFLIPS SCUMthen he is confirmed scum, at which point you'd purposefully follow the reads of a known liar/scumbag?
I'm not elaborating quite yet on why I think it's impossible for Fate to be mafia, nor why I think it's unlikely he is SK. I will do so at a future time, but it won't be today. I think there is still value to withholding information to make scum make shots in the dark at what's going on.
You think that me/hito/Fate are scum... because we'd be able to pull off a gambit? What kind of gambit? Who did we pull it on? What kind of gambit could we pull off in Always On that we couldn't pull off as scum with daytalk? Why does that have an impact on ANYTHING -- Tierce pointed out scum have daytalk, so the ability to talk outside the game is useless for the three of us if we're scum. Why isn't LLD scum, too? She was in the original group of four that devised the D1 plan, so why exclude her? And hito doesn't live near us, he hasn't spent any REAL LIFE FACE TO FACE time with us.green shirt thursdays-
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Except, it also could result in scum kills. Getting rid of the NK doesn't actually tip the odds in our favor, because the odds are sporadic to begin with. PLUS, with an SK alive, LyLo doesn't actually mean LyLo, as we can keep going if there's a third party to fuck with mafia. Say we don't kill another mafia, say it gets down to 7 players. I'd much rather be in 3-3-1 than 3-4, because SK would HAVE to kill mafia, and mafia couldn't kill SK.
You also have to think about the fact that lynching the SK gives double day, meaning none of town power get a night to figure anything out. Right now, a double day would be disastrous, as we would pretty much still be informationless and squandering. Later on, with more information, having two days could win us the game.green shirt thursdays-
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Because it's incredibly likely that he's a mafia roleblocker and we could have dead scum now, get night results in, then worry about Fate and get a double day? Or because if he's mafia and lying, we lynch Fate for literally no reason, then he just goes WOOPSIES I GUESS IT WASN'T ME STOPPING THE KILLS and we have to lynch him anyway? For that matter, if he's town and ACTUALLY wasn't stopping the kills, we STILL have to lynch him because of the WIFOM of it all.
Basically, no matter what happens when we lynch Fate, we have to lynch SalmonellaDreams next.
However, there's a small chance that if we lynch SalmonellaDreams first, and he flips NOT ROLEBLOCKER, we don't have to lynch Fate. Otherwise, we do.
Lynching SD first eliminates any room for doubt, and he is going to be lynched REGARDLESS. Fate isn't necessarily going to be lynched because we don't know if SD is telling the truth or not.
I just think it's a much smarter play to lynch SD first.green shirt thursdays-
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
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Here, I made a flowchart to help everyone!
F-1: With Fate as the SK, SD could still be the mafia roleblocker, so we lynch him.
F-2: With Fate as town, SD is more likely to be lying in some capacity, so we lynch him.
F-3: With Fate as mafia, SD could still be bussing, so we lynch him.
S-1: With SD as the Town RB, his claim is valid, so we lynch Fate.
S-2: With SD as the Mafia RB, his claim still carries weight, so we lynch Fate.
S-3: With SD as the [Anything Not RB], there isliterally no more reason to lynch Fate, so we don't.
In any and all situations where we lynch Fate first, we lynch SD immediately afterwards. There IS an outcome in lynching SD first, however, where we do NOT proceed by lynching Fate, thereby saving us a mislynch AND killing a liar in the process. If all situations are likely to end in the same result anyway, why not eliminate the ONE outcome that WOULDN'T result in lynching both of them?green shirt thursdays-
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After spending the evening frustrated that I can't get my point across, organizing the way I viewed the situation this way was the best way I could think to help everyone. And I've never seen Nuwen make a flowchart AFAIK.
@Tierce: And if we lynch Fate today and he's NOT the SK,THE SERIAL KILLER STILL GETS A GODDAMNED NIGHT KILL. Considering the fact that SD has been scummy and just pulled this claim out of his ass at L-1, and blocking someone you think is town isn't actually internally congruent with how town would play that role. Even if Fateisthe SK anddoesget a NK, there's NOTHING to suggest he'd hit town over scum.green shirt thursdays-
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
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See? I'm not finishing thoughts again.
There are six possible outcomes.
One of them involves stopping the SK from getting another shot, a shot that might hit town or scum.
One of them involves stopping a mislynch on a town player, a lynch that would only hit town (from the data's point of view).
The best decision is to lynch SD first.green shirt thursdays-
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@Matias: You're scum. You're at L-1. There's a SK in the game.
You can easily try to wriggle out of a lynch by calling out a player many players have showed a passive interest in voting.
Or, if you ARE a scum RB and you go down in this way, you can potentially take down a high value town player with you.
I'm not saying my way will produce that outside result where SD just isn't a RB at all and made all of this up, but looking at our options, it's the only situation where they don't BOTH get lynched, so why not eliminate the outlier first?
@Oversoul: If Fate flips mafia, it's the same situation as if he'd flipped town or SK. We lynch SD next anyway, because there's nothing to say he's a town RB over a mafia RB. Shit, people are suggestingusing the double day from the SK flipto lynch SD anyway. SD's claim isn't alignment indicative IN THE SLIGHTEST, which means all the previous votes/suspicion on him that are now jumping ship are unfounded. Nothing about his claim makes it more likely to come from town than scum, even if it is true.green shirt thursdays-
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@Matias: I'm not ensuring it, because it's not 100% that Fate is SK. In my opinion, the risk of a townie getting killed "randomly" if SD's claim is correct is justifiable to make the smart play and know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Fate is, in fact, the SK before we lynch someone who is a very strong player.
@Oversoul: First off, if Fate flips mafia, it would "clear" SD, and is the exact type of claim I know I would make in that situation to clear myself to LYLO. Furthermore, by "large amount of possible nightkills", do you mean one (1) extra nightkill from Fate-SK?green shirt thursdays-
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Yeah, I'll admit, I was wrong, there.
The conviction came from the belief that he sincerely wasn't mafia, though. When the idea was presented that Fate could be SK, you'll notice I wasn't trying to defend him anymore, because I realized that could be an actual possibility. I'll be interested to see if he tried to shoot me or not. I got somewhat fleeced, I'll admit, but I feel like my reads came from the right place.green shirt thursdays-
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
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#1) Yes, I do think his reads were genuine. However... I think his read on you was forced early on and since he wasn't actually town he didn't feel challenged to change it.
#2) You're not the towniest player in the game and some of your early play still gives me pause but I have you in my "won't lynch" column right now.green shirt thursdays-
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Because he had committed to the lynch and pretended like any post-hammer appeals to emotion had any affect on the alignment of SD.
When a lynch on a buddy is inevitable, bussing members have to dosomethingto stand out from the crowd and get some town cred.
Exactly what would've made Matias go: "Yes, we nailed a scum!" Did he expect scum to just go "Yep, self-hammering, you got me!" and roll over after the hammer? No, of course not... scum are going to keep throwing out as much misinformation as possible until the very last moment. Treating any post-hammer plays by anybody as someone revelatory about their alignment is shallow and vapid, and the ONLY reason to engage in that kind of play is to appear like you're being plaintive about the death of a townie, only to be "surprised" that it was actually a scum lynch! Wow-ee-wow, I sure didn't know their alignment, you guys!green shirt thursdays-
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- Posts: 26087
- Joined: March 15, 2009
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- Posts: 26087
- Joined: March 15, 2009
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- Posts: 26087
- Joined: March 15, 2009
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- Posts: 26087
- Joined: March 15, 2009
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- Posts: 26087
- Joined: March 15, 2009
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- Posts: 26087
- Joined: March 15, 2009
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- Posts: 26087
- Joined: March 15, 2009
- SD calls LLD, hito, Nacho, me, kanye, Oversoul, and Magua town, calls Feirei scum.
- Hops back and forth between Feirei & Johhog with little hesitation
- Pushes pretty hard for a Feirei lynch, calls Fate & Reck & hito town; defends Tierce
- Pushes more for a Feirei lynch but not TOO hard; I'm town again, CES is null, Nacho is null leaning scum.
- Then pushed to claim, claims RB on Fate, Fate gets lynched, uses WIFOM to try and explain why he's town in this situation, gets lynched.
Not a whole lot to go on, mostly empty, reasonless reads.
Worth nothing that he never mentions Benmage, or DeasVail, or Matias, or singer.green shirt thursdays-
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- Posts: 26087
- Joined: March 15, 2009