Butcher, Baker, Pastry-Maker Mafia - Dogged

[Kalimar]

Vote: Seraphim

[Kalimar]

i'll just claim my full role i guess.

I am The Seven-Month-Old Cinnamon Bun, Cinn Zeo (pronounced like Xin Zhao). I am a moldy miller.

basically i worded my choice that way in the hopes that i'd roll third-party and get survivor but ALAS i am stuck with boring town again.

For clarification, can you state precisely what the role reveal would be if you flipped right now?

[Kalimar]

So therefore,

Vote: Shadow Dancer

Why did you refuse to be arbitrary?
This was the shortest rvs ever.

Interressant...

Was it your vote or mine which ended, according to you, the RVS?

I feel like this response should have preceded the vote.

[Kalimar]

i'll just claim my full role i guess.

I am The Seven-Month-Old Cinnamon Bun, Cinn Zeo (pronounced like Xin Zhao). I am a moldy miller.

basically i worded my choice that way in the hopes that i'd roll third-party and get survivor but ALAS i am stuck with boring town again.

For clarification, can you state precisely what the role reveal would be if you flipped right now?

The Seven-Month-Old Cinnamon Bun, Cinn Zeo, Moldy Townie.

Moldy Townie is ambiguously plausible; it deviates from the standard nomenclature (i.e. Town Miller) but in a similar way to how Moldy/Burnt are scum-denoting modifiers this game. I have trouble believing that scum would willfully claim having that modifier rather than just using a standard miller, so I'm leaning town on the claim for now.

Moldy Miller would have been more concerning.

[Kalimar]

toog does seem a little more concerned than what seems appropriate with both nik's role and pushing that the wagon crew is more likely to be scum when it reaaaally should just be null

neither of those things are strong though

and also I do kind of want to go back to lynching Kalimar since he hasn't actually done anything town yet

Hmm.

[Kalimar]

TF and PV are leaning town.

Vote: SD

[Kalimar]

Tomorrow.

[Kalimar]

VOTE: Toogeloo

Nikanor [3] - Seraphim, Nobody Special, Toon Fighter

Are these people still serious about PL'ing a miller claim? Because if we're going to strongarm it, I'd prefer it to happen sooner than later than watching people hide out on it like Dram did the Survivor claim in Capcom.

I'm curious as to what your take on Nikanor (claim/play) was at the time of this post.

[Kalimar]

Don't really like the composition of SD's wagon (UT and Nik and NS are on it) but at the same time he does look like a good choice for today's lynch. Will not join the wagon now

because reasons

, but if we get closer to DL, I can consider voting or hammering.

In other news, NS continues badposting and voting for shitty reasons, so I feel that is a better place to place my vote for now. I mean, do an ISO if you need, but there is little more than trolling and uselessness in him. His SD vote (372) seems like pure bandwagoning with a flimsy excuse, so if SD flips town NS is a place to look. So:

unvote, vote: Nobody Special

Why did you use 'because reasons' here in lieu of just stating the reasons?

[Kalimar]

Something just popped into my head... if Nikanor is scum, then he'd probably know about the multiball and different faction types and moldy versus burnt flavoring, which would make a D1 miller claim a really easy thing to do in order to float by most of the game. Hmmmm.

It also hardly makes sense for their to be a miller for one type of scum and not for another type of scum IMO

There's already a sense of asymmetry in this game, particularly if the poison kill method spec is right. I'm still not too concerned about the miller claim on that basis, though I think it's something we can speculate more accurately about when we know more about the overall setup.

[Kalimar]

Dramonic's collective work epitomises active lurking, so:

Vote: Dramonic

tn's also concerning me a little.

[Kalimar]

Get on Tn then before he bandwagons me? :->

3 scum per team is nuts and means we're already about only half town. Does mafia recruit count as a bastard mechanic? That would be a possibility if they started out as 2, and also if that kind of power is okay to use in non-bastard set ups.

Nik is the closest thing to IC we have. Him saying MOLDY miller, and then UT flipping mold cop, CONFIRMS that Nik's role would only be guilty to UT, not any burnt cops, and that there wasn't a universal/regular cop. I don't think you can argue he knew about the mold cop because that means the mod gave Nik-scum info on the setup / town's power. Even if it's only 2 mold scum, they get told "a cop looking for mold will return guilty upon investigating you"? Nah.

I like my vote where it is. If it ceases to gain any interest within a couple of days, I'll probably rethink it.

There aren't alignment changing roles in this game.

[Kalimar]

VOTE: Toogeloo

Nikanor [3] - Seraphim, Nobody Special, Toon Fighter

Are these people still serious about PL'ing a miller claim? Because if we're going to strongarm it, I'd prefer it to happen sooner than later than watching people hide out on it like Dram did the Survivor claim in Capcom.

I'm curious as to what your take on Nikanor (claim/play) was at the time of this post.

I thought he looked somewhat townish at the time, otherwise I wouldn't have said anything regarding the wagon. He looks worse with the flips, but we might have a vig/SK. \o/

I originally thought burnt and moldy were just different ways to say scum. But the moldy-specific cop + "poison" makes me think otherwise. I'm also curious why someone would want to poison Titus (because replacement such and such) unless scum were just looking to avoid power roles.

I voted Kalimar earlier for activity concerns based on him being a lurkfuck SK in this game. Also because I thought his sole contribution of "I believe the miller claim" to be pretty weak.

I don't know how to read Dram.

Reck/Kise still looks like a dick measuring contest that Reck's winning. I'd be down for lynching TN.

Vote: TN5421

If you were town-reading Nikanor, why even float the idea of strongarming his lynch? Also worth mentioning that the wagon wasn't a policy wagon, the people there were scum reading him. Only Seraphim mentioned policy in part. I also don't see how the flips we've seen reflect badly on Nikanor.

I don't like that you state you don't know how to read Dramonic without offering any insight or attempt at doing so.

[Kalimar]

TF, please answer my question.

[Kalimar]

I don't know how to read most of this game's players, but I have to try to do so.

It's the process that matters.

[Kalimar]

If you were town-reading Nikanor, why even float the idea of strongarming his lynch? Also worth mentioning that the wagon wasn't a policy wagon, the people there were scum reading him. Only Seraphim mentioned policy in part. I also don't see how the flips we've seen reflect badly on Nikanor.

Most of it was to spur the people voting him to either force the wagon in or do something else. My read on Nikanor had very little to do with my comment. Millers are a distraction that should be resolved at some point before lylo, so the earlier the better.

Eh, I guess I can see this.

The idea of "attribute" specific cops and multiple kills call his alignment into question. That's what I mean by flips.

I still don't see this, though.

[Kalimar]

I don't think TF should out today. Maybe tomorrow.

[Kalimar]

w/e this tf wagon is going nowhere fast and if we don't lynch scum today we're fucked.

Vote:dramonic.

What the fresh hell is this

Can you unpack this reaction?

Also you and Dramonic should vote.

[Kalimar]

Shaft's tone kind of sounds like a resigned and disappointed townie. I'd deadline vote him but I'm not optimistic.

[Kalimar]

Vote: Shaft

(L-2)

Meh. I'll be around for an hour or so if a serious momentum shift happens.

[Kalimar]

i need inspiration.

[Kalimar]

I wasn't filled. or, if I was, I don't know about it.

I'll work out what I want to do with my vote after the weekend.

[Kalimar]

zzz prodded

[Kalimar]

mm

so i have a slight town read on pretty much everyone in the game right now

VOTE: Nobody Special

I want to hear some interesting opinions though. Anyone have a strong read on Peregrine or Espeonage?

why was I a slight townread as of this post?

[Kalimar]

I'm gutvibing titus as scum even though that doesn't make mechanical sense

well unless the scum filling had a positive effect for scum and was simply fakeclaimed as a mold. or tf and titus are scum together

idk could be 3rd party too

(idk just kind of sums up my view on everything this game, btw)

i guess i don't think esp and pv are scum together; iirc both called reck scum d1 and even though it was clear he wasn't in any real danger then don't think he'd be a prime early bus target i suppose

[Kalimar]

someone active (in relative terms) is scum at least

think i'll just omgus for now

vote: Gamma

[Kalimar]

Caught up. Nothing to add right now.

Caught up. Nothing to add right now.

How is it that you can have nothing to add, might I ask?

@Reck: Maybe? I don't pretend to understand what he was thinking.

Read from 206 to 295.

I have no new thoughts or ideas about the game that I am presenting at this time.

so I was thinking these posts were fairly different from the harry potter game where pv was behind and kept promising content and never delivering. more standoffish. most of the other prod posts don't promise anything either. it's meta a self aware person could easily change but it's minorly town.

and I felt PV's entry here was a lot more directly purposeful than anything I've seen from him really, though the drop off is eh.

so I still feel ok about those reasons, the only real ding I would say is him voting Sprinkled Delight rather than Reckoner as his d2 start

and I'd like to see some more up-to-date thought processes on anything really, tn scumread would be an ok start. not sure what he meant in 1017 about 'pastry instincts' either

[Kalimar]

tn scumread would be an ok start

He's lacking the town-wow factor.

i agree

but who in this game actually brings the town wow

(also don't feel any more enlightened about pastry instincts but meh)

[Kalimar]

that made me laugh more than it should have

[Kalimar]

my main issue with the sera wagon is that it has espy and tn on it.

Dram just obvtowned. I don't see scum pissing off the IC while most everyone is lost.

i've been discredited by scum as an IC so no.

if it's ~meta~ between dram/esp i can accept it as null though

i'll skim over the angels later and see if that's worth voting or not

[Kalimar]

those shots don't have a lot of trajectory to them

if he's truthfully town then we most likely have another kill blocking role somewhere (else only a no kill explains the lack of n3 flambé kill, and since vig would confirm singleball then I'd have to assume the odds of a no kill are inversely proportional to scum size and with 3 scum in that case how likely is that?)

and then if that were true i'd begin to have setup balance concerns anyway. esp if tf is town.

but i think i only really want to lynch sera if he can be argued as groupscum rather than sk

since sk lynch means we quite likely have to chain 3 scum lynches consecutively to win thereafter. not optimistic we can do that. not with this level of engagement.

[Kalimar]

I was topped by Reck Night Two.


At the time, I didn't know it was Reck. I just got blindly topped while minding my own business. In my sleep.

I am terribly sorry for offending the delicate sensibilities of, apparently, everyone on this website.

@Mod:

Please forgive me, Andy, but I'll be requiring replacement.

also i don't understand this at all, can someone explain?

[Kalimar]

Shouldn't we just lynch Sera and move on before apathy eats the rest of town?

this post bugs me. :/

doesn't even comment on the claim or its veracity, just continues to push the lynch.

plus apathy is already eating town so there's that too.

[Kalimar]

where i'm at atm is that i think tn is more likely groupscum than sera (who i think is probably sk). probably voting tn, but i want to hear some of yakko's thoughts before i do. i'll make sure i vote before tomorrow's deadline.

[Kalimar]

I feel like I am buddied from all sides. I thought getting a drink would help...now it just makes me want to cry...

i don't see who is buddying you.

[Kalimar]

VOTE: toonfighter
instinct based on wagon. Hammered to look town. Maybe I should have voted espe hmmmmm

how much of this game have you read?

[Kalimar]

thoughts on massclaim today?

[Kalimar]

meh

you should do that soon PV

@Kali- who do you think is scum atm?

Don't know. I think Yakko quite possibly townslipped - or at least not-groupscum-slipped - and I think PV is still decently likely to be town despite the twitch-worthy vote-swap end of last day.

Still think tn is an okay lynch. I think either you or Titus is likely to be mafia just because I don't have town-reads on either of you and I think I should have seen at least some good signals to that end by now given you're both relatively active. I also mainly think an active player being scum would, along with the apathy, explain why town really hasn't congealed and found each other.

You said you wouldn't kill dramonic, and I kind of want to believe that, but who do you think would have killed dramonic? I find that kill odd. Perhaps more important is why.

[Kalimar]

N1 - Tracked Reck, he targeted Titus
N2 - Tracked Espeonage, he targeted no one
N3 - Tracked Gamma, he targeted no one
N4 - Tracked tn5421, he targeted no one

This looks like you could have been blocked as well. If PV got handed a doctor thing, which I doubt, then handing a vig to the IC makes sense. YetEspy visited no one.

No one else is claiming vig.

I have no idea what most of this means, but why do you doubt PV got handed a 1-shot doc power? Just on the other page you were espousing the idea of a hidden protective role being a good reason not to massclaim.

My Gamma vote yesterday wasn't a hard-push, and I'm still far from sure he's scum but I've been wary since day 1 in 193 two days into the game where he said he'd be happy to lynch me as I hadn't done anything town yet. My start in HP was pretty slow, and by that point in that game I actually hadn't done anything at all, so I don't really understand where this expectation that I should have done anything particularly town so early came from. Him voting me there again brought forth a resurgence of that wariness and an accompanying vote.

My lack of intro vote means very little in most contexts, but feel free to read into my lack of vote here if you like. Pondering.

[Kalimar]

also am moderately pro massclaim today but can tolerate waiting until first thing tomorrow.

[Kalimar]

I don't want someone getting false-cleared based on a fakeclaim or outing the actual one-shot vig if we just do that claim without taking into account all the other variables in the setup (

particularly sprinkled delight's topping that could have theoretically been a 1-shot vig

, even though I don't think that's super likely)

virtually impossible - we know UT got sprinkles either at or before n1 and he's hardly going to shoot himself.

any 1-shot vig power would have to be latent, IMO.

my theory on how yakko townslipped was his intro votes and suspicions today. i think his scum-mate would probably have mentioned these claims when deciding who to kill last night, making a push in those directions at best unproductive (assuming TF-town). do you disagree?

though i would like to see him do something, like that vca he said he'd do.

[Kalimar]

oh, unless you were saying the topping itself was a vig shot and SD killed UT, really don't see that.

[Kalimar]

also I'm really REALLY hesistant to put any value in speculation about what scum were and weren't talking about and deciding to clear yakko based on that given that all it takes for it to be wrong is yakko just not paying attention to the discussion there or it not being talked about. If you think something in-thread points to yakko being town point it out but I don't agree at all with saying he's likely town because of possible scum discussion, even if I do see why kali would think that.

eh, fair. admit that there are other scenarios that are fairly likely that could have occurred. still think it's at least reasonably possible, but it's not enough on its own.

i'm going to read ns and probably titus tomorrow too and see if anything jumps out

[Kalimar]

there is definitely scum on my wagon

this is one of those arbitrary things that bugs me because it's so easy to say and yet freestanding means so little

why are you scumreading tn and gamma? do you have any good townreads?

[Kalimar]

tn is more likely town if ns is scum - both because of his vote today (kind of coasty rather than the towncred gathering type) and also because that little exchange on page 48 didn't look like it was between scumpartners

also arguably his sera read in the reads list could be interpreted as some sort of scum read, making his tn/tf scum-reads even less likely to also be scum. I often assume people are going to bus people less than they actually do, but this is a minor plus pointer for them.

and since tf has been pushing that slot since the dawn of time I'd be pretty surprised if he was scum with him

[Kalimar]

hi

[Kalimar]

1.

[Kalimar]

PV was a regular townie - see brackets

[Kalimar]

Assuming a truthful report, Titus cannot have been roleblocked last night. A roleblocked player shows as no-visiting on a Tracker report. And, if Titus' action were successful, TF would not have a report to begin with.

The only theoretically both-town mechanism that comes to mind that could explain Titus and TF both being town is a bus drive. However, a closer look at that would suggest that PV should not have died in that scenario as a TF-PV swap would leave PV protected by the JK, obviating the possibility.

Also, if Titus really were roleblocked and had been every night, then none of her actions would have contributed to the missing NKs. Had Titus successfully JK'd TF on any occasion, TF would not have received a report on any of the successful nights.
Therefore, TF and Titus cannot both be town.

More thoughts on specifics when massclaim is done. Esp, you should pick one of me or tn to claim first. Titus should claim her n1 target.

[Kalimar]

what question.

[Kalimar]

Esp, I answered that already. I did not kill.

Titus has also essentially claimed groupscum.

Firstly, let's deconstruct a couple of the fallacious arguments.

The framed argument does not answer the fact that TF would have no report if Titus' JK went through. The framed argument is also both extremely convoluted and also wrong. Were Titus really framed to show as visiting a kill, she would still not show as also visiting TF because if her visit went through TF would not get a report, and if she were roleblocked she would not be listed as visiting at all;

arguably

in this case a framed track would list her visiting the kill

only

but not both TF and the kill. The kind of frame that affects Tracker reports is also most likely bastard as it is not a reasonable moderator lie that could be predicted or expected by players. I have not seen it done before. This is not a game advertised as bastard.

I clarified with the mod just now that lone scum can send in a secondary ability along with the factional kill. Therefore, the argument that there is no mafia action consistent with these findings is totally wrong. Mafia Watcher, Rolecop, Doctor etc. are all valid possibilities. I suspect Titus stated that because she knew she killed Gamma and therefore, as groupscum, knew that the eaten kills had to be SK, and -that- would make the results totally incompatible with mafia, since she's it and knows she didn't make the PV kill. TF's wrongly listed results actually did perplex her, I think, hence the comment that he had her visiting the wrong target.

Say I'm SK who can be tracked. I leave TF alive for this long because... ... ... reasons? No; I'd have killed him stone dead long ago. Most likely, TN is Ninja SK. Every single Eaten kill has suspected him, which is one of the few actual SK tells there is. The 'Well, you can be a Ninja SK too Kalimar!' argument isn't one I can really disprove, but I can say that these are also not kills I make as SK. Run it through in your mind and you'll probably agree. I suspect the main reason TF is alive is because Titus didn't think he'd ever track her (because of the Reckoner situation), and that she hadn't accounted for Ninja SK as a possibility and thought he could find the SK for her.

Now, let's look a bit at motivation.

Were Titus town, she'd be railing against TF for lying, not believing his results and trying to explain them away in the most convoluted way possible. At the very least, she'd be paranoid, and she's expressed extremely little paranoia (Reck also expressed no paranoia) apart from some generic amorphous statement that he 'could' be Mafia Tracker. She also dismissed the possibility we actually have two scum and an SK alive far too quickly - in this scenario, lynching even the SK as town is actually an instant town loss. Because she's alone, I suspect this is why she's dismissed this instantly. In the case that she believes I'm SK and TF to be a tracker, the only source for her roleblocks would be TN. As town, she'd have at least thought about that and commented on it, but... I actually think she does think I'm the SK. She's just scum doing it, so she don't really need to scumhunt and the SK is the biggest threat to her winning. The funny thing is, I'm actually town. Pretty much nobody can see that this game, which is a pity, but understandable.

Titus still stating that she's been roleblocked every night is also utterly asinine, but let's look past that for a minute. As a town Jailkeeper, one does not also Jailkeep a believed town power role every night. That means it can't act. That means it can't find more scum, or possibly get information that could clear townies. A protective Jailkeep on maybe one occasion is dubiously possible, but as the numbers dwindle it is almost always better to block scum. I am almost sure most players would tend to aggressive JKs as the game goes on, for the most part. I would ask every single other player how they'd play JK as town - in fact, I could ask the whole site how they'd play JK as both factions in this scenario - and not a single one would say that they'd lock up the claimed Tracker indefinitely. Also, if she were roleblocked as she claims, her theory as to the missing kills being because she JK'd TF is totally incompatible. As an aside, PV's shot would only have blocked one kill; we can assume his 1-shot claim was truthful as Yakko's RB shot was also claimed 1-shot. I will concede that I don't have a good theory as to where the n3 kill went.

As for me 'narrowing the pool' to Titus or TF, I actually didn't. I gave clear-cut reasoning as to why at least one of the two had to be lying and thus scum. That reasoning still stands. From my perspective, I already know that at least one of you isn't town purely because of numbers - either there are two Penicillium mafia and an SK, one Penicillium Mafia and an SK, or one Penicillium Mafia and two players from a smaller as yet unidentified scum faction - but that reasoning means that everyone from an unbiased perspective can see that there is definitively scum in you/TF.

I do not believe that Titus and TF are scum together; this is a very inefficient way to play if they are, and TF's comment after the mod error seemed pretty genuine and so I don't think that was a faked result. I agree that TF is not SK, and I agree that Titus isn't either. TF and tn being scum together on a smaller faction against Titus as lone scum is about the only possibility that would make lynching Titus a fundamentally bad idea. I don't have anything strong for why that possibility is out (TF's tn vote on Day 4 was unnecessary, but eh), but TF is the only person (bar Esp) who I actually can see as town right now. I also think that tn and TF team is auto-win for them at this point anyway, so meh.

However.

[Kalimar]

I could argue further how Titus is groupscum; her belief that she had a day to live and a day to crack the game conflicted with the fact she didn't actually do any kind of gamesolving, her push on Yakko was a one-dimensional railroad, and her play has been geared more to political positioning than scumhunting. It's obvious.

But, really, if TF is town (for the sakes of argument I'll just pretend he is) what you and Esp really need to work out is if Tn or me is the SK. If you think I'm the SK and don't think you'll be changing your mind about that, then I would condone my lynch. Esp has thought Tn town since forever, and TF just said he was ok with my lynch.

So if you think the setup is 1 scum and 1 SK, then maybe lynching me isn't the worst thing ever. If it's anything else, it is the worst thing ever, but if it's anything else it's probably happening anyway.

*shrug*

I'm a Townie, btw. No fillings, toppings, anything.

[Kalimar]

There is not a Town Roleblocker (Shadow Dancer), a Town Doctor (Nikanor), A Town Inventor (Sprinkle) who can give out a 1-shot version of the previous powers, a Town Jailkeeper and a scum roleblocker.

Like, seriously. It isn't even close to sensible.

Also, I said in my wall that I believe tn to be ninja SK. Which is why TF wasn't shot, because tn had no reason to ever shoot him. I theorised that you didn't shoot him because you didn't think he'd track you.

[Kalimar]

I'll do my due diligence and wait to see if either of you have ~secrets~ to declare before voting.

[Kalimar]

Your no visit on me can wait, sure.

Already claimed Townie. Flavour's Croquembouche.

[Kalimar]

.

[Kalimar]

*shrug*

Vote: tn5421

I'm not wall-casing this time. Look at the NKs and specifically look at how D4 went down after Sera claimed. These are probably enough to get you the right answer.

I'm taking the chance that you're town.

[Kalimar]

Sorry. For the zero impact play, and for losing. :/

I did try thinking things through... but I was lazy with it. I did get to the possibility of SK being block-proof, bulletproof and Tracker, but I thought that was just silly. I really did think if the scum had shot SK (and multiple times, to boot) they would have tried pushing it rather than a no-holds barred push on me.

But I was wrong.

What do people do to re-engage with lost games?