Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain (GG)

[G[o]dz]

[G[o]dz]

Mr Birn is probably a mafia, and Mr Cain is probably his partner.

More so if PelicanV flips a mafia.

[G[o]dz]

Oh, and also for what it's worth, I made a big show in the neighborhood last night about protecting within a small group of players, and Miss 22 was the top of my list of protection targets I claimed. Experiments was not in said list, I protected him as a gambit. This is a major part of the reason I think it's unlikely the mafia team has any idea what's going on in our neighborhood. I do not think a strongman is likely in this game (though it is the most likely of any scenario in which there happens to be mafia in our neighborhood, but that just seems like extremely poor game design given the limited utility of X-shot roles in the first place).

Another reason I think it's unlikely the mafia team has any idea what's going on in our neighborhood is that Miss 22 just was not a good kill, knowing her role (which we all knew). This, coupled with her being at the top of any list of protection targets I gave (it changed a couple times over the course of the night), seems like rather strong evidence that IF there happens to be a mafia in our neighborhood, it would have to be me. And I don't think that I'm a mafia. Ergo, I'm concluding that there likely isn't mafia in our neighborhood. Which is why I'm making it a point to protect only within our neighborhood from now until I run out of shots. And I don't mind making this public since I do not think there's anyone outside this neighborhood that I do not want to see the flip of.

[G[o]dz]

Why are you not discussing your reads after massclaim like you said you would?

If you mean, "why are you not going into copious amounts of detail?" then it's again because it's not necessary; there is (was) a clear-cut best option today which was lynching the claimed unlynchable. I could go into mounds of detail about what either no flip or a mafia flip could mean for each and every player, if it means anything at all, but that seems rather pointless when it's easier just to see the flip (or lack thereof) and go from there.

If you mean, "it is unclear who you think is a mafia," then I don't know what to say. You're not reading. This would not surprise me in the least.

[G[o]dz]

No, I mean t-bone confirmed that Expedience gave him something on N3.

You can wrap quotation marks around "confirmed" since they could both be lying. I'm townreading both of them, so I'm inclined to buy it.

Miss Bird has also confirmed Experiment's role. And Miss 22 confirmed Miss Bird's role.

Pretty much the only role in the hood with no confirmation is my own. But that could theoretically change in the coming night/s.

[G[o]dz]

I'm a little nervous about both of you

[G[o]dz]

Don't lynch before everyone checks in.

PV got the same thing THE BONERIZOR got the night before. A copy of George W Bush's autobiography entitled 'Why crayons are my faverit thing'.

[G[o]dz]

He's saying the fact that you claimed you saw Mr Ion visit someone makes you a mafia. But if, for example, Mr Cain's "Burned to a crisp" thing is related to the delayed flip and possibly also related to why you might have seen Mr Ion visit Mr Freezer, then maybe that would explain things.

[G[o]dz]

I think someone in the Neighborhood is scum

Who?

[G[o]dz]

Mr Freezer claimed night one (and asked for advice on who to target), as well as specifically cliaming it was 1-shot.

[G[o]dz]

The rest of the hood claimed to each other two nights ago. Yesterday it was basically confirmed via Miss Bird that Experiments targeted Mr Freezer with what he said he did (Miss Bird knew the specific name of the invention before Experiments claimed it). I do not think it that odd that he would want to use the first ability before giving away the rolecop ability. Especially given an ability that boosts X-shots has very limited utility if it's not used early on...

[G[o]dz]

Mr Cain, have you flavor-claimed?

If not, do so.

And claim the flavor of your ability that is "like a miller" please.

[G[o]dz]

In fact, anyone who hasn't flavor-claimed should be flavor-claiming today, both the flavor of their characters and the flavor of all their abilities.

[G[o]dz]

Mr Birn, Mr Oxm and anyone else who hasn't should be claiming the flavor of their abilities. Like the actual ability name.

[G[o]dz]

I did. Though I did not gain access to the neighborhood until D3.

Is there flavor to your ability (an ability name)?

[G[o]dz]

I don't know. We happen to be in another situation where I don't actually need to. Given there's what is essentially a claimed guilty on you.

Though it should be readily apparent why I think my neighborhood is more likely town than mafia at the moment since I have gone into detail about that. And I doubt the mod puts unlynchable mafia in the game.

I actually think it's more likely that Mr Sentinel is town among the remaining players than anyone else. I may re-evaluate at some point.

[G[o]dz]

you keep making that excuse but what it looks like to me is scum trying to give as little as possible. I see absolutly no town motivation in what you are doing.

What? In what world have I provided little information? I know you have to keep up this whole "look at Godz's ISO? It's so barren!" because if you don't, you think it will look inconsistent or something. But really, you're not reading if you think I'm providing little in the way of content. I've provided far more content than you have this game, both in the game thread and out of it.

[G[o]dz]

I mean, unlike you, I've been pretty consistently saying exactly who I think is likely to be mafia, and I've said why.

You, however, have been keeping as many options open as possible, and when pressed to explain any of them, you come up short. You've asked a lot of questions, which is a majority of your posts, but in terms of concrete content (like reads, explanations, general stances on things), you're lacking whereas I don't think I am. I think I'm the only consistent mafia read you've had this game. Maybe also Mr Oxm. These reads are static and unchanging and don't take in any new information as it comes along. Your other two guesses for mafia change seemingly every post you make and you never really go into enough detail on where your thoughts are at that any of it makes any sense.

This whole pressing me to explain things in more detail, when I've given at the very least the cliffs notes, is just tired.

It's true that I

could

do more, and were circumstances different, I might, but there's not a whole lot of point when either the game will be decided today (if you're town, which I really, really, really don't think is the case) or we'll get a mafia flip from you and, besides the fact that I will no longer have to deal with your whining about me not providing information, it's at least useful to verify that you're going to flip mafia before proper associatives are drawn.

[G[o]dz]

You don't look town at all. You just look more town than the rest of the people that aren't in my hood or unlynchable.

[G[o]dz]

I maintain that miller is the odd role out in this game even without THE BONERIZOR's claim. There IS a theme of low power distributed among many players; lots of limited utility abilities. Miller by itself doesn't fit the pattern that the rest of the roles in this game have. There's no utility to it whatsoever.

[G[o]dz]

What exactly is the point you are trying to make with that statement?

[G[o]dz]

Is there a reason you are getting bent out of shape that I noticed they were the same abilities?

The way it was phrased, it looks like you were trying to doubt-cast ("says he can make") when it's easily confirmable via PelicanV...

It seems pointless to just say "Oh, hey guys, remember that this ability is the same as Miss 22's," for no reason.

[G[o]dz]

My "first content" as you call it is well before I'd caught up on the game. The "rest of the day" was me catching up and then me spending time attempting to extract sensible information from Mr Ion. That is what you

should

be doing when there's evidence to suggest someone could be mafia but it isn't clear-cut (e.g. not a 1v1 like you and THE BONERIZOR). This is basic theory. If you're debating this, you're not a very good player. Nobody should be writing mounds of relatively irrelevant information to clog up a day when there's a central issue to focus on.

Your categorisation of my D4 is funny. It also, again, ignores that there really wasn't all that much point in doing other things because (a) a mass-claim was occurring, and (b) after the mass-claim had occurred, the correct play was to lynch PelicanV and wait for a flip, if it was to happen. PelicanV was a safe lynch and, had he flipped mafia, would have given assocations to work off. The fact he didn't makes the POE pool smaller. This is useful information to have before going off on several tangents that could be more or less pointless depending on what PelicanV's alignment was.

If I didn't give a read on Miss 22, then I didn't. What is your point? I didn't explicitly say all the reasons I was town-reading Miss Bird, but I did point out (in the game thread) that I believed Scorpion had hidden behind her night one - I suggested the strong evidence for it and nobody ever produced a good counter-argument for it. These two players were never in contention for a lynch, so why would I spend time going into lots of detail about my read there?

You're probably right that I haven't publicly given a stance on Miss Bishop. That is a read I've been mulling over for most of the game. It is probably the read I've been most inconsistent with this game and is still one I'm working out.

I wasn't town-reading THE BONERIZOR prior to the events of night three. Nor was I strongly town-reading Experiments prior to then. Things have changed. I've made it completely clear why. Actually, I haven't made it explicitly clear

all

of the reasons I'm reading them as town and there's a particularly compelling reason (I think) that they're town, but I won't talk about this until post-game because the powers that be would be very, very unhappy with me if I did so.

As for the Mr Sentinel read, I probably also haven't explained that much publicly because it, along with the Miss Bishop read, have been in flux for a majority of the game. You're right. It's not a strong town read. I don't have any strong town reads outside of my hood and now PV. In the hood, I've described this game as russian roulette. I still think that is the case. Whoever is town in the POE pool isn't making their alignment as clear as I think they should be.

Nothing finally "tipped the scale" with regards to Mr Oxm, except that he's less likely town than others. As far as minor reasons go, I have looked back on his, "Oh, sheezy, actually I'm not an innocent child!!" reveal and I am currently leaning towards it feeling forced and disingenuous. Outside of that, he's just not a town read and the very, very low amount of content he's produced doesn't leave him in a favourable light.

By the way, Mr Cain, focusing on me today doesn't really do a whole lot. I could write a long post about how little you've done, how unclear your reads have been, etc (in fact, I have, and you've still yet to adequately address it), but in the end, this is you vs THE BONERIZOR, so what are you hoping to achieve with this side-argument with me?

I personally find your stances today hilarious. The idea that the hood is 3/3 seems far-fetched to begin with, but the idea that THE BONERIZOR had to fake a guilty on you as a mafia with Experiments and I makes so little sense it's not even funny. How likely is it that any of us were going to be lynched today, over any of the other possibilities? I also think every time you make assertions with question marks ("could it be that X is the case? is it actually X?") it just makes your alignment even clearer; you're not taking any hard stances, instead trying to throw out whatever you can to see what sticks.

It's also entirely unclear what your current reads are. ARE you reading the rest of our neighborhood as mafia or not? Who do YOU think is the mafia team, Mr Cain? Why aren't YOU taking stances? Why aren't YOU trying to show why you're town and THE BONERIZOR is a mafia?

Also,

I didn't want to claim on d3 b/c I didn't want it to be a distraction and have Met get out of a lynch

This doesn't explain anything. Apart from the irony with your complaints with me, YOU WERE IN THE GAME FOR THE WHOLE OF DAY TWO. And this ISN'T a reason that you had to hide; why could you not say this yesterday?

Because you're making it up as you go.

[G[o]dz]

I wonder if Mr Oxm will grace us with his presence in the next 24 hours.

[G[o]dz]

Sigh.

I've wanted to see Elbirn lynched. I've wanted to see Xtoxm lynched.

Seems like forever.

And shit keeps coming up and we do something else and it's not a scum lynch.

t-bone I think you're town and I'm probably just going to vote Nero but it pains me that we're at lylo and both of those two are still alive.

What excrement keeps coming up and when is this referring to?

You had every opportunity to lynch someone you thought was mafia D2 (and D1 for that matter). The only day something has come up is D3.

[G[o]dz]

Could it be you're trying to form a read?

No. I already know what I think of it, I was just interested in how you would try to justify the statement you made.

[G[o]dz]

Part of me just wants to snap-lynch Nero and either move on with this game if he's scum or move on from this game if he's town. I'm too apathetic to care all that much which.

What are you waiting for?

[G[o]dz]

It is, if you've never taken the opportunities you had to push these reads you wanted dead all game.

[G[o]dz]

I see you lynching people not them on both those days.

Remind me who your current mafia reads are.

[G[o]dz]

Even if you were town, that was nothing more than a why question.

[G[o]dz]

Godz we know something weird happened on Night 2. Metrion's flip tells us he shouldn't have been trackable.

Either Xtoxm and DS are both scum who went all in to effect that mislynch, or DS is town and something (a scum ability) snarled it up.

If it's the latter, it's a mechanic or ability that is probably still in effect.

This is all factual information (well, except for the fact that it necessitates both Mr Sentinel and Mr Oxm being mafia, but I think it's likely Mr Oxm is mafia at this point anyway). I am unsure why you're addressing this to me. I am also unsure why you personally think it's likely Mr Sentinel is telling the truth.

[G[o]dz]

Because I want your thoughts about it?

What possible thoughts could I (or anyone, really) add to that? Either there is a mafia role that would explain what happened with Mr Sentinel, and it can be (almost) confirmed by finding said role, or there isn't. I am perfectly willing to lynch others before I consider which of you and Mr Sentinel is more likely to be mafia in hopes of finding said role. Though, really, you have the strongest role in the game if you're town at the moment, so you really should be dead already.

[G[o]dz]

What "evidence" was there that Met was town?

This misses the point entirely. It was not a clear-cut "this must be the case" like you vs THE BONERIZOR. Tracking someone to a night kill doesn't automatically make them mafia.

Could you explain how you went from "im still working on it" to "i know what I think"? What do you think and why?

You're conflating my read on a slot as a whole with my opinion on something they've said. The two are not the same.

Could you remind me what happened on night 3?

A lot of things happened in the hood. There was a mass claim, co-ordination of night actions and a kill on someone it made no sense for anyone with access to our neighborhood to go for.

You really don't understand the reason scum would fakeclaim a guilty on town?!?

This misses the point entirely. You're suggesting the three remaining hoodies are mafia. Why do we, in a position where it's completely unnecessary, need to create any friction whatsoever when it's unlikely any of us are getting lynched today (or at all, over any others in this game)?

This isn't even the main reason why your theory makes no sense. Just one of the reasons.

I mean obviously you'll say that I'm lying but there was no reason for me to look at my role pm on d2 wich is why I didn't claim on day 2.

I would say you're lying, yes. I do not believe anyone looks at their role PM, sees a lack of active abilities and assumes "vanilla". Active abilities aren't even the first thing you notice when you open a PM, it's the big bold writing that tells you your role name. Not to mention, millers aren't usually the same color font as town PMs (though perhaps Xatu's millers are an exception).

[G[o]dz]

My role wasn't revealed until day 4.

I figured your role out night three. The entire hood knew your role night three because I told them. I do not believe that mafia could be so oblivious that it took them until a mass claim to figure out your role.

[G[o]dz]

I don't believe mafia have a roleblocker if it isn't you.

[G[o]dz]

I think if you are mafia, you claimed it because you felt it would help you get on Mr Freezer's good side. I don't really know why you'd hide that information as a mafia?

[G[o]dz]

To what end would hiding that information help? It would have to come to light at some point.

[G[o]dz]

really? so you've never seen a cop guilty flip town and you've never seen scum fake claim a guilty?

THE BONERIZOR isn't claiming a cop guilty on you and I don't see what that has to do with anything I said.

Well if you were scum you'd know that you were not protecting her.

Yeah, I'd also know I'm not protecting any of the others, either, so this misses the point entirely.

It makes the day a WHOLE hellva lot easier for you.

No, it doesn't. It unnecessarily complicates it. The game would already have been easy. It is far easier to play it safe with a smorgasbord of mislynches available than to force a 1v1 when you're in a good position.

no it isn't, its the wincon.

Semantics.

[G[o]dz]

I sorta doubt DS and EL.

Why?

[G[o]dz]

It's LyLo, and scum can quickhammer.

He's not criticising your lack of vote; your lukewarm stances are the issue.

[G[o]dz]

What does that even mean?

[G[o]dz]

Why is Mr Oxm confirmed mafia to you?

Why is Miss Bishop obvious town?

[G[o]dz]

when I flip town, if somehow this game isn't over, are you going to vote Godz?

What a silly thing to say. Even if that were somehow possible, you should theoretically want THE BONERIZOR lynched before me, and you don't even have good reason to think I'm mafia anyway.

Any sort of confirmation bias I might have aside, when someone makes incredibly ridiculous statements like this, it just makes me think they're trying to do something they think seems town without realising that it makes little sense from the point of view they're town.

[G[o]dz]

Having 2 town trackers is absolutely ridiculous, so therefore, he's scum.

Are you saying it's absolutely ridiculous because it can't happen in a game? I'm sure it's happened on multiple occasions before. Probably far more often than a mafia tracker and a town tracker (because that should really be considered poor design if only because it leads to a direct counter-claim situation).

Are you saying it's absolutely ridiculous because you don't think it happened in this particular game? If so, why?

Kate has been obvious town to me from the get-go. I'd suggest you read my reasons from days 1 and 2. I don't feel like going back through my ISO. All I can remember is that I've been town-reading her since D1, and nothing she's said has made me even consider her being scum.

So your read is static for reasons you stated on D1/D2 and you can't remember the specific reasons. Great.

[G[o]dz]

So I'm looking through your ISO and I see you saying you have issues with Miss Bishop up until a point you state a strong town read on her, then call her your strongest town read... But you never talk about why.

Where are these reasons I am meant to be seeing?

[G[o]dz]

JOAT? Some kind of differential ability that depends on the target?

JOAT seems most likely but I don't see much point in speculating. I think Mr Cain should be flipped today and Mr Oxm tomorrow, though the order here doesn't particularly bother me.

Actually, I could see some merit in doing it the other way around, since that allows PelicanV to also target Mr Cain and alleviate any doubt anyone could have about Mr Cain.

The fact that Mr Oxm hasn't been lynched yet is the single strongest piece of evidence that anyone is a mafia at the moment (though I don't think anyone deserves any sort of credit for being able to point this out).

[G[o]dz]

It is unlikely that there exists anything could tamper with a role like that. Redirection doesn't make sense on a number of levels (I mean, it's possible, but

why

would it have happened?) and anything else is delving into the realm of "too specific and unlikely to be the case to be paranoid about".

[G[o]dz]

context is a thing bro. DS said he believes that one of me or you are scum so...I asked him about how his read on you would change.

No, that's not what you asked him. If that's what you intended to ask him, you could have phrased it like, "if I'm town, is the Great One a mafia?" or something along these lines.

Instead, you not only phrased it awkwardly, it doesn't make sense to begin with.

[G[o]dz]

... Yeah, there's no way you misunderstood what I meant by a cop guilty there. Cop guilties are inherently different to "this is entirely different from the set of abilities he claimed" - framers can exist, but not the sort that get to pick and choose what

abilities

a player has...

[G[o]dz]

It's not a cop guilty. A guilty explicitly means "I have a mafia result on X". Other forms of investigative roles are not "guilty" results.

He's caught you in a lie with his role. That is not the same as a cop guilty.

[G[o]dz]

I mean the guy thinks that one of us is scum and leans scum on me. Logic says that if he believes this he'd think you are scum as soon as I flip town.

Yeah and this just makes your statement make even LESS sense. If it was inherent that "logic says" that to be the case, then you didn't need to say it. Logically, it was the case.

No, what you were doing was a poor appeal; one that makes less and less sense every time you try to make excuses for it. Your statement was designed to look like heroic town just trying to do the right thing for the cause, except that's not what town in your position would have said, because it doesn't even make sense to say it on ANY LEVEL.

You're mafia. And if you aren't, I do not care at this point. I'm willing to give THE BONERIZOR the game over believing there's even a slight possibility you're town.

##VOTE: MR CAIN

[G[o]dz]

Yeah, I've been saying in the hood that lynching Mr Oxm is the safe option. It is. Lynching Mr Oxm and then having PelicanV investigate you is the safest possible option in this game. But frankly, I've stopped believing there's even a chance you're town with your play today. You need to die.

In fact, I will make it 100% clear in big letters.

PELICANV,

IF, FOR WHATEVER REASON, WE LYNCH MR OXM OVER MR CAIN TODAY, INVESTIGATE MR CAIN TONIGHT. DO NOT LET HIM WORM HIS WAY OUT OF THIS TOMORROW.

[G[o]dz]

Well, that failed.

[G[o]dz]

Let's try that again...

PELICANV,

IF, FOR WHATEVER REASON, WE LYNCH MR OXM OVER MR CAIN TODAY, INVESTIGATE MR CAIN TONIGHT. DO NOT LET HIM WORM HIS WAY OUT OF THIS TOMORROW.

[G[o]dz]

The gist of my thoughts right now are that I am perfectly willing to throw the game on the off chance you happen to be town, Mr Cain, because quite frankly I would rather give the mafia team a win than share a win with you. Your play is atrocious. Everything about it is atrocious. It's not even that your read on me is bad. It's that every single argument you've made, every single flawed statement you've made, the entirety of your play in general has just been awful if your town. You should have claimed miller D2 if you're town. Your predecessor should have claimed it D1. You keep harrassing others for reads and justification but you can't even justify your own reads beyond stale blanket statements without any actual evidence. The entirety of your play reeks of throwing shit against the wall and hoping people believe it's just brown paint and you're an artist.

Quite frankly, I'm not going to be moving my vote off you for the rest of the day phase. THE BONERIZOR could literally claim mafia. His team mates could literally make it clear I have a day to unvote because they're going to quick-hammer if I don't. I would still not move my vote.

[G[o]dz]

I'm not even joking either. I'm not moving my vote. If THE BONERIZOR is mafia, he and his team mates are more than welcome to just hammer Mr Cain at any point. I would be perfectly fine with this. Do it.

[G[o]dz]

Nobody who has played more than 1 game of mafia refers to catching someone in a lie as "a cop guilty"

[G[o]dz]

"Hey guys I tracked X to Y when he said he went nowhere... I have a cop guilty!"

[G[o]dz]

Yeah, whatever. Done talking to you since all you has is baseless rhetoric.

If anyone actually believes it's more likely Im a mafia than you are, then they seriously need to reevaluate whether mafia is the game for them.

[G[o]dz]

You're pretty good at spouting rhetoric that actually doesn't make any sense if you think about it; who says that to a mafia read?

[G[o]dz]

You're playing a semantics game with this "guilty" stuff, but you knew that before you started. You're carrying on about it without realising that arguing about whether it is or isn't a "cop guilty" doesn't matter if that's not what I mean when I use the term. You've lost sight of the original point you were making because it didn't matter. You're spewing bovine excrement.

[G[o]dz]

Oh, yeah. The part where you read your alignment, skipped over the second line where it explicitly tells you your role, skipped to the last line, and assumed vanilla.

A very likely scenario.

[G[o]dz]

Hey, you know what else isn't weird at all? A VT checking their role PM night three.

[G[o]dz]

There is virtually no scenario in which I see both you and Mr Cain being town together, so telling me that means nothing to me.

It IS safe to lynch Mr Oxm. It IS safe to have PelicanV investigate Mr Cain tonight and confirm his role. I don't really care, to be honest.

I was being dead serious when I said I would rather lose because Mr Cain is town than share a win with him.

[G[o]dz]

It doesn't really matter. You die tomorrow anyway, because PelicanV confirms you're a lying sack of fecal matter and then you have to make up some story about how, oh no, you've been framed or it's so obvious that obv-scum Great One is mafia with obv-scum THE BONERIZOR and obv-scum PelicanV!!

[G[o]dz]

scum will use whatever framing ability they have.

HAHA

HAHAHA

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Yeah.

Right.

[G[o]dz]

I don't believe mafia have a blocking ability that isn't Miss Bishop, so if PelicanV claims to have been blocked, I will just believe it was Miss Bishop's doing unless she can prove she actioned someone else (like Mr Sentinel or Experiments). Or no kill occurs in which case we no lynch tomorrow and try again.

Mafia certainly do not have a full roleblocking ability.

And the idea of an ability-framer is so laughable that if anyone believes it, I'd be ready to just quit playing mafia altogether. My faith in humanity would be so low I don't think it could ever recover.

[G[o]dz]

There is no scenario in which mafia have a full roleblocker in this game. More so if Mr Oxm flips a JOAT with a roleblocking ability. The only scenario in which PelicanV gets blocked tonight is if you're mafia. I sincerely believe this to be the case and, on the chance I die tonight, people should remember this statement well. I do not believe I'm wrong about this. The idea that you can't speculate about the setup because of the moderator is silly when it makes zero sense whatsoever for there to be a full roleblocker in the game. At best, there's an X-shot roleblocker, but if that's the case, I am pretty sure they've used up all their shots already. Or mafia did some really unsound gambit where they saved shots for no good reason because they *might* need it at some point way down the line, rather than preventing the use of town power early on... I do not think this is the case.

[G[o]dz]

The vote count is 3 on Mr Oxm, 2 on Mr Cain, none elsewhere.

Expecting a vote count out of Xatu in the next twenty days seems unlikely.

[G[o]dz]

Godz your being so wrong about me shakes my confidence that your grasp of this game is dependable.

Who do you think is mafia, then? You now think Mr Cain is not mafia (or at least you are implying that by suggesting your gut is telling you that both yourself and Mr Cain are mafia). The way you're talking to me suggests you don't think I'm a mafia.

If you think that Mr Cain is mafia, that means what? The town read that you claimed was the one you were most confident about yesterday is now not so unshakeable? Or you think there's some other explanation for THE BONERIZOR's result? A framer for abilities only, despite how incredibly silly a role that would be? A redirector who redirected THE BONERIZOR to a mafia player without even knowing what his action is or who he'd be targeting? No explanation outside of "[at least] one of them is a mafia" makes sense here.

Who else is a mafia?

PelicanV, despite his unlynchable status? How exactly is town meant to win if they can't lynch someone who is mafia? Who puts that sort of role in the game and thinks it's good game design?

Like who's mafia, Miss Bishop? Mr Oxm and who?

[G[o]dz]

Well, the language there is messed up a bit, but it's obvious what I meant. Swap town and mafia in some of the sentences where it's obvious what I meant, etc.

[G[o]dz]

And, more specifically, what in Mr Cain's recent posts gives you the impression that he's town now? What exactly has he done that has looked town at all? How have you gone from leaning mafia on him to not being sure all of a sudden? Show me where this change of opinion occurred and why.

[G[o]dz]

Mafia have had four days to hammer you and it hasn't happened yet. If you were town, the game would be over.

[G[o]dz]

Yeah, the risk of PelicanV coming on that once a month and unvoting in the middle of a quick-hammer attempt. I've said this in the hood; if one of PelicanV and Mr Birn is town, then mafia could have claimed mafia, taken 24 hours to hammer you and still got away with it before either of them came online to unvote.

[G[o]dz]

I don't think Mr Oxm is a powerful mafia role (at least not at the moment). I think whatever utility his role had is gone. It might go some way towards explaining things. It might not. The same goes for Mr Cain.

I think Mr Birn might be a a strong mafia role. But it would be unwise to lynch him today. So bleh.

[G[o]dz]

Like honestly, it makes perfect sense to just lynch Mr Oxm today. I am fully, 100% aware of this. It maximises town's chances of winning, regardless of whether Mr Cain is a mafia.

I do not care in the least.

I am perfectly fine with accepting any bitterness towards me if this turns out to lose the game.

I think that's better than seeing Mr Cain win if he's town.

[G[o]dz]

The funny thing is, right before Mr Cain wrote 3322 I had been explaining in the hood how much sense it makes just to lynch Mr Oxm and let PelicanV sort out the situation between Mr Cain and THE BONERIZOR.

On Sunday, I noted that Mr Oxm was incredibly likely to be mafia due to not having been hammered. Since then, I've spent some time explaining the merits of lynching Mr Oxm over Mr Cain because it is the safe option.

But there is no excuse for 3322 if Mr Cain is town - it was the proverbial straw and I'm done with playing this game until Mr Cain is dead. It is such an awful post that, in conjunction with the rest of his play, I genuinely could not care less if I happen to be wrong.

[G[o]dz]

You really don't know me at all.

[G[o]dz]

Using Mr Oxm as evidence is like saying "the universe is 6000 years old because my pastor told me so!"

You could not get a less credible person to back up your assertion, and it still entirely misses the point.

[G[o]dz]

By the way, if Mr Oxm and Miss Bishop don't hammer him (and I'm actually hoping they do), Mr Cain is pretty much forced to suppose that the mafia team is the three neighbors and Mr Oxm, for those not keeping track.

Part of me is really, really, really hoping the mafia team is just Miss Bishop, Mr Oxm and my two neighbors so the game ends soon.

[G[o]dz]

That is like saying anything that contradicts another claim is a guilty. You may as well start calling counter-claims guilties.

[G[o]dz]

Also still missing the point.

[G[o]dz]

Calling something an "ability cop" is really just shorthand for saying "I investigate someone and find out their abilities." It in no way shares any correlation with a real cop, any more than a tracker is a "visit cop" or a motion detector is an "action cop". People call it an ability cop because it is the easiest way to describe it.

Describing a contradiction or catching someone in a lie as a "guilty" is just misleading and should only be done as hyperbole. It is not a guilty in the same way people think of a cop guilty, which is explicitly, "I have a mafia result on X."

The thing is, all of this STILL doesn't matter. Because the question isn't who is right here; it's whether what I'm saying is reasonable and something I believe. There exists no universe in which I believe you genuinely did not understand what I intended, and there exists no universe in which I believe you genuinely thought that was a slip.

[G[o]dz]

The fact that you're still so hung up on this "it counts as a cop guilty" thing is part of why I do not care in the least if you're town. I hope you are. I hope you're town and we lose.

[G[o]dz]

Yes, at this point the mafia team has to be the three neighbors and Mr Oxm if you aren't hammered.

I really, really do hope Miss Bishop comes in here and hammers and the game ends. If you happen to be town, I'm legitimately sick of playing with someone as atrocious at the game as you are.

[G[o]dz]

You're probably extremely proud that you can point to a single game in which you were night-killed early on, when usually the mafia team keeps you alive because they know you're not a threat to them. It's funny because looking through your recent games, I noticed how deep you make it into most games. I would honestly be surprised if mafia consider you a threat in over 10% of the games you play. And I'm probably being generous there, but even someone of your calibre has to get some reads right by random chance at some point.

[G[o]dz]

So? If you happen to be town and Mr Cain also happens to be town, feel bitter about it when the game is over. I would not care. In the least. If you feel I betrayed some sense of obligation you apparently think I have towards you, then oh well. At least Mr Cain wouldn't be winning the game, and I would be satisfied with that outcome.

[G[o]dz]

To be clear, I do think that even with the vote pile-on here, it's still likely that Mr Cain is a mafia. I also acknowledge that it's still optimal play to lynch Mr Oxm.

It's not like I have any sort of town read on Mr Cain and I'm knowingly throwing the game. I just would not be the least bit sad if he turns out to be town and the game ends now.

[G[o]dz]

And I am perfectly aware this isn't rational behaviour. And I am perfectly aware that, while I'm not strictly playing against my wincon, it is a much better option to not do what I'm doing.

But I still don't care. Mr Cain does not deserve to win, no matter what his alignment is. I will do my utmost to make sure of this.

[G[o]dz]

It's not game-throwing. It could only be game-throwing if I were voting you despite thinking you're town.

It is simply this: if you are town, so be it... I do not care. You need to die.

[G[o]dz]

I like to think I gave you every opportunity to show me you're town if you're town. I mean, despite me calling you a mafia for the majority of the time I've been in this game, I've still been open to considering the possibility that I'm wrong. I've asked you to justify statements you've made. I've asked you questions that I don't think should be tough to answer if you're town. You either couldn't answer them or didn't answer them. And I know that I haven't been the most forthcoming with my reads, but I can and have justified this. Whereas I'm still yet to see, for example, any justification for your Mr Birn read. Or really any justification for anything. I asked you repeatedly to break down why you thought the cow was a mafia and you gave me some weak meta horse droppings about how he didn't feel the same as when he was town. And your entire argument about me is that I haven't been doing things, which is really just ignoring everything I have been doing in favour of more horse droppings.

When I pointed out that you haven't gone into any real detail on most of your reads, with a couple exceptions that appeared to be entirely static, rather than doing anything about it, you instead trying to get into semantics about how you'd actually done things by pointing back to minor things that weren't even strong - and that's ALL you could point back to as part of your "mafia hunting". Rather than just be like, "yeah, maybe I haven't..." you instead tried to prove me wrong when I'm not actually wrong in any of the statements I made. You do it again with this "guilty" stuff where you lose focus of your original point to try to win a semantics battle.

Your reads are so wishy-washy and the justification for them is so weak that I simply cannot believe you genuinely believe them.

So

If you are town, I do not care. I'm done dealing with you. I'm not throwing. I'm just done dealing with you if you happen to be town.

[G[o]dz]

And if you reply to this with, "nuh uh you're wrong I totally did not do the things you're saying and you're a mafia!!" I'm just going to feel less and less guilty if you happen to be town.

[G[o]dz]

Also, I fielded every question you gave me. I may not have given ALL of the reasons for all of my reads, but I definitely fielded every question. Whereas you've ignored a LOT of my questions, or not answered them directly, or given some round-about answer that, when pushed, you never backed up.

[G[o]dz]

[G[o]dz]

I honestly do hope you're town. I really, really do.

[G[o]dz]

its ok. I know this is scum and if not Kate someone will hammer me and we'll wait a few weeks for Cabd to flip me.

Who's going to hammer you? According to you, the entire mafia team is on you right now.

From the point of view you've been arguing, it's still entirely possible for a Mr Oxm lynch to occur.

[G[o]dz]

Miss Bishop,

If Mr Cain is town, this game isn't ending in a town win.

Like, even if he IS town, and we lynched Mr Oxm, and PelicanV was not blocked and got a miller result on Mr Cain, Mr Cain would simply use that as justification to push my lynch. I sincerely doubt this will happen, but assuming it does, the game is no less over.

At this point, I've basically made sure of this. So even if I had any intention of unvoting prior, there's no point now.

[G[o]dz]

Also, reeeeeeeeeeeally? A 3/3 split in a neighborhood?

Go back to Road to Rome, Mr Cain. Regardless of your alignment. Even if I'm wrong, at least I'm not

that

dumb.

[G[o]dz]

You gonna tell me that you replaced in as TOWN and did fuck nothing but argue with town Met?

You keep insisting this is what happened. It isn't.

Regardless, "you gonna tell me that you replaced in as TOWN and did coitus nothing but argue with town bringer of pain?"

[G[o]dz]

your reads and play have been shit

If my neighbors are mafia, you would be justified in saying this.

I would also be justified in saying your reads have been no better, because prior to the whole "guilty" thing happening, your strongest town reads were my neighbors and your strongest mafia read was me.

So it goes both ways.

[G[o]dz]

And actually, if my neighbors are mafia, it would just mean that I let certain things influence my reads more than I should have; to be perfectly honest, if we were basing it entirely on play and play by itself, I don't have strong town reads on either of my neighbours. But you did. And have for the majority of the game. So uh, calling my play and reads doodoo just means your play and reads were many times worse. You would happen to be more right than I am at the moment, though, but that's again because of the "guilty" thing and not through any brilliance of your own.

[G[o]dz]

Anyway, I'm done. I hope I wake up and find we've lost. I truly, honestly, with all my heart hope that you're town and this game is lost, Mr Cain. That is how much I despise you as a player.

And you can say whatever you want about my reads and my play in post-game if you happen to be town. Everything I've said about your play still stands. It's been atrocious. The only reason we're even in this situation is because your play has been so atrocious that I simply refuse to believe any town player can be as bad as you are. But I don't expect you to reflect on this if you happen to be town. I expect you to be the same awful player for as long as you continue to play mafia because you're never going to improve and you're never going to be a good player.

I'm willing to admit that if you're town, my reads have not been good at all and I've made some questionable decisions in this game. I'm also willing to admit that the last few hours are not only some of the worst mafia I've ever played, but the worst mafia anyone has ever played.

That said, your play this game is still atrocious. Every single criticism I have about your play is still valid. You're a huge hypocrite. And the sad part is that, if you're town, you probably genuinely believe that the only thing you've done wrong in this game is not reading your role PM.

[G[o]dz]

No. You're not right about me. And being right about Mr Oxm wouldn't be an achievement.

You have literally no clue how I approach this game as mafia. And while, if you are town, you'd be justified in saying the same about me with regards to you, at least I'm not a fucking moron whose only retort is "you're mafia! I'm right!"

[G[o]dz]

Yeah, because this is what I'd do as mafia. Of course.

I would find it funny if you genuinely don't believe I would be so disgusted with your play that I'd be willing to make a less-than-optimal play and risk you being town.

I am very fickle. And very stubborn. I wouldn't do this as mafia, though. I am 100% not lying about this. I consider myself above this sort of play as mafia. It's crude and unnecessary and I generally pride myself in my ability to smooth-talk when I'm mafia. I don't do this stuff. I don't play anything like this. And I don't care whether anyone thinks this is WIFOM. It isn't.

[G[o]dz]

That is true. It isn't just a single town player.

[G[o]dz]

I think making mafia even conditionally unlynchable is one of the worst game design decisions anyone in the history of mafia has ever made.

Town played poorly. That said, mafia won more based on mechanics than the actual play of any individual mafia player. I am interested in why mafia shot Miss 22 the night she died when THE BONERIZOR should have known she was #1 on my protect list if I didn't do a dumb gambit.

[G[o]dz]

The funny thing is, up until that night, I was very on track. I did the dumb gambit in the first place because I felt THE BONERIZOR was likely to be mafia. I thought Mr Birn was mafia and I thought PV was mafia. The only one I was blatantly wrong about at the time was Mr Cain. But that all went to doo-doo after N3 and PV being unlynchable for a second time... Oh well.

[G[o]dz]

I also should have thought more about why Miss Bird died because (as I said in the hood) it indicated that mafia didn't want to ruin the status quo. That said... I feel no regret and no remorse about lynching Mr Cain.

[G[o]dz]

eh, your play was shit, I called you on it. You got butthurt. np.

Mr Cain,

On multiple occasions, you came up with theories that no sane person should ever have thought to be the case (the 3/3 split you were suggesting on the last day was only the icing on the cake here) and you repeatedly made ridiculous claims about certain things being "mafia slips" when no person smarter than a potato should have genuinely believed the things you were saying.

You should be policy lynched day one in every game you're in.

My play was not good. Yours was infinitely worse.

[G[o]dz]

What happened with the Mr Ion thing, by the way? Was that just a lucky guess?

[G[o]dz]

He would have been mechanically confirmed mafia if Mr Ion hadn't actually visited Mr Freezer. The fact that there exists scenarios in which this might not be the case means no, while it's certainly plausible he just got lucky, he wasn't confirmed anything. That said, even if we lynched Mr Sentinel here, it probably wouldn't have changed the outcome.

[G[o]dz]

As a side note, I think I was doing the math at some point in this game and figured mafia are going to win this setup somewhere between 10-15% of the time with a perfect victory and that was before I knew that there was unlynchable mafia in this game, which just boosts that number. I would be interested in knowing how discussions about the setup balance went.

There's a rule in the setup that mafia PMs trump town.

That's not what that rule means...

That rule means, for example, if mafia A blocks B, B blocks mafia C, and C performs a kill, then C's kill will go through because mafia A's role takes precedence over player B.

[G[o]dz]

DS role included something about bypassing ninja

The design decisions in this game are very questionable.

[G[o]dz]

I thought it was likely Mr Ion had been tracked to Mr Freezer (as turns out to actually be the case, so there was no actual lie going on there). The question was "how did it happen?" and my first guess was never going to be "ninja bypassing tracker" because that is just such a ludicrously stupid role that it should never be in a game. It is far more likely (IMO) that some outside influence affected things in some way (like disabling passives or some other such thing) and that wasn't necessarily related to Mr Sentinel's role, given all other factors (something delayed Mr Freezer's flip on the night he happened to be targeted by Mr Ion with a role similar in nature and we have someone who saw it happen (and atually did see it happen). Shenanigans were at play; it just wasn't clear what shenanigans were at play.

[G[o]dz]

THE BONERIZOR,

Do the math. Seriously. In approximately one in six games, you were expected to win this with a perfect victory. That's not even the overall chance of a mafia win, which I imagine was quite high but it's probably too hard to work out the actual number. That's not good setup design, even apart from certain other design choices. Like even if you ignore everything else, town got two mislynches in a four-mafia game before it was lylo. That would have been a whopping three if we didn't lynch the unlynchable mafia. In a standard game, town should be getting size of mafia team + 1 mislynches. Your standard 13p game is 10:3 which allows for 3 incorrect lynches before lylo. Your standard smaller game, 7:2, allows for 2 incorrect lynches before lylo. 13:4 is standard for the same reason. 12:4, though? You shouldn't be giving mafia any sort of broken role if you're going to make a setup inherently mafia-sided by numbers alone.

You guys didn't lead lynches on the unlynchable player, you were serendipitous enough that someone who should never have made it anywhere near end-game was unlynchable.

Nobody on your team was being town-read for play reasons besides you. You did a good job of being town-read in that regard (though I don't personally know why people had you as town based on play and I'm not sure anyone really explained that, I largely ignored it because I was speculating the neighborhood was town due to how night three played out - something I shouldn't have done). But honestly, the mafia win isn't because of any grand mafia play, it's largely because town played incredibly sub-optimally in a setup that really should never have been approved by any sane reviewer.

I don't think you played badly, but this game isn't going to be remembered as some great feat by the mafia team. You didn't pull off a miracle. You guys just played a solid game with the advantage you had in this setup.

I still don't really understand the Miss 22 shot - that was an incredibly sub-optimal shot unless you (coincidentally correctly) thought I was going to be dumb and not protect the obvious target.

[G[o]dz]

Yes, OK.

You got me.

As I said in the hood, your play was very town and the way night three played out was most certainly not the entire reason I was reading you as town.

[G[o]dz]

Do you honestly not remember exactly what I said when I did what I did night three?

The entire reason I did what I did was

because

I was very strongly considering the fact that you were mafia (which is why leading up to it, I gave you no inclination I thought anything was off about your play, before making a big reveal at the N3 deadline). And the only reason I wrote you off as town is

because

killing Miss 22 made absolutely no sense (and still doesn't) given what I was saying in the hood and the fact we knew her role. It was obviously flawed logic on my part, but nothing there was "manipulation" on your behalf. I just made a very poor, faulty assumption.

You played well enough that you were town-read by the majority, and I will admit I did not see much in your play that made me think you were mafia, but if you honestly think you were manipulating me (unless you're referring to anything other than the shot on Miss 22) then you weren't reading my posts.

[G[o]dz]

It's not that town had no chance... It's that this game was undeniably mafia-sided. Listing a bunch of things that

could

have happened doesn't change this. It's statistically unlikely a tracker gets an incriminating result in any game. Ability cops (I'm assuming Miss 22's role was no different to the inventions) wouldn't necessarily have given an incriminating result either. A lot of things could have happened that might have

influenced

the game, but that doesn't take into account the likelihood of it happening or the fact that, even if, say, 2 of the things you say could have happened and netted us mafia lynches, that wouldn't have necessarily meant a town win.

The setup wasn't balanced. Town power looks scary on paper, but it's dwarfed in comparison to both the power the mafia had and the numbers.

And yes, you probably were in a better position than I was after night three. That may or may not have been the case had I made the correct play instead of the dumb gambit I did.

[G[o]dz]

I don't think anyone bought Mr Birn's claim. Except maybe Mr Cain? Did anyone else actually have any sort of town read on Mr Birn?

[G[o]dz]

The only reason Mr Birn wasn't lynched is because (outside of D2), there was the Mr Ion vs Mr Sentinel thing D3 (which is funny because in discussions with Miss 22, I think we'd both expressed being perfectly fine with lynching Mr Birn in spite of the whole situation), and then it was LyLo. And I don't think it was reasonable to assume "PelicanV isn't necessarily town because there could be shenanigans where we have to lynch another mafia player before we can lynch him..." so when days went by without Mr Oxm being hammered, I drew the logical (wrong) conclusion; Mr Oxm was virtually confirmed mafia.

[G[o]dz]

Oh that reminds me. I miscounted the numbers when I replaced in and assumed there was an extra day before MyLo (I realised my mistake night three, at which point it was too late). A lot of the things I was thinking about were on the assumption we had an extra lynch. Whoops.

[G[o]dz]

Would you like to bet money on that? If I have the full setup and a couple weeks to think about how exactly to do it as well as doing it, I would be willing to write a program that calculates every possible outcome and show that you're wrong (or perhaps right, who knows? But I doubt you're right) if you're willing to bet a decent sum of money on it to make it worth my while.

The setup was not balanced. I would guess it was not even close to a 4/9 chance of town winning this.

[G[o]dz]

I don't think anyone is arguing that the entire reason mafia won is the setup, but the setup did give you a huge advantage (and no, it's not by any measure brilliant play that you're able to make lynches happen on unlynchable mafia...), I'm pretty sure the setup was mafia-sided and you didn't win because of some grand manipulation that will be remembered even a month or two from now; you won because of solid play around a flawed setup.

If you honestly think it wasn't mafia-sided, then bet a decent sum of money on it and I would be willing to programmatically calculate the EV to prove or disprove it. I'll even do you one better; all you have to do is bet on whether town's odds of winning were better than 4/9.

[G[o]dz]

THE BONERIZOR,

You're conflating poor game balance (this game was almost certainly nowhere close to balanced but that's a side point) with poor game design. For example, no one would call it unbalanced two have a 2-person neighborhood where both neighbors are mafia, but it is extremely poor game design. The mafia win wasn't some extraordinary feat of manipulation - a majority of the mafia team didn't play well, with you being the only exception. You were able to capitalise on some flaws of the setup that I do not think town should have reasonably expected to be in play. The unlynchable role wasn't just bad from a balance perspective, it was an extremely poor design choice because no town should reasonably be expected to think, "oh, this guy that we literally cannot lynch isn't necessarily town because maybe one of his buddies is enabling it!" Likewise, the most reasonable explanation for someone getting a result on a ninja shouldn't be "ninja-bypassing" modifier...

If you're going to claim that your win wasn't largely attributed to the setup, then so be it. You're free to believe that if that's what you honestly think. But here are the facts: it was 12:4 and town got two mislynches before LyLo, you had roles that are not going to exist in the

vast

majority of games and nobody on your team, apart from you, was being read as town for any sort of play reasons.

Mods need to learn how to design role madness games properly.

[G[o]dz]

You keep throwing out 12:4 like it's unbalanced or something, when in fact (other than being an even number) it's the right amount of scum for a playerlist that size.

... Right. OK. There's not a lot of point in continuing this discussion.

[G[o]dz]

I mean tbone already pointed out all the roles that could basicly end scums in one night so ya its very townsided IMO

If you do not have any idea what balance means, then you should probably not discuss balance as though you have any idea about it.

It's not the set-ups fault that the town couldn't get their stuff together. Hell DS slipped IN THREAD (which I yelled at him badly for) that maybe PV is unlynchable because of another scum role. DS slipped quite a bit this game with his inside knowledge. Is it the fault of the set-up that no one picked up on it?

Um, actually, a lot of why town didn't get their stuff together is the setup's fault. Poor reads aside, we

did

only get two mislynches before LyLo. It wasn't four. Even in the best of circumstances, where town doesn't lynch the unlynchable mafia at all, we get three mislynches before LyLo for a total of four incorrect guesses.

Also, yes, it is the setup's fault that town doesn't pick up on "slips" (it's questionable whether that can even be called a 'slip'). Mafia slip a lot in games. I'd wager that in the vast majority of games, mafia slip some sort of setup knowledge. Do you know why town doesn't ever pick up on it? Because town doesn't know the setup and cannot be reasonably expected to know the difference between what is a "slip" and what is speculation, theories, etc. Suggesting that town should have been able to distinguish between X player suggesting crackpot ideas and Y-mafia legitimately having inside knowledge is ridiculous.

But really, I don't care. If you feel you outplayed town during the day without the aid of the setup, then so be it. That is your opinion.

The facts I stated still stand. You can choose to ignore them or call them incorrect if you so wish.

I mean, kudos to you. You apparently had a tough time winning. I don't think that's something to be proud of in a setup like this, but hey, you won. I personally do not think that the mafia team played at a level above and beyond anything I've seen from any other mafia team that's ever played the game. You are free to disagree if you think this was just one heck of a mafia team that played much better than your average team.

[G[o]dz]

Right. Being told I'm wrong by people who don't have the first inkling about how to create a good setup isn't exactly strong evidence that I'm wrong.

What exactly are you suggesting I'm wrong about?

[G[o]dz]

OK. You can believe what you want to believe. This was clearly an above-average mafia team and the setup didn't play a big part in how the game turned out.

[G[o]dz]

That might be valid if experience had any bearing on whether someone is good at balancing. It doesn't, but it might be relevant if it did.

Do you know how to calculate EV? Is a 22:3 mountainous setup mafia-sided or town-sided? By how much of a margin?

[G[o]dz]

That actually has all the relevance in the world. If you can't even do that, it's like you're telling someone you're an expert mathematician when you don't even know basic algebra and all you can really do is look at numbers and say whether you think something seems right based on your experience.

Experience has nothing to do with good setup creation because most experienced players probably don't know the first thing about how to calculate whether a setup is balanced.