New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]
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Human Sequencer allMafia Scumall
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VOTE: Arthur/scout
I'm confident in Jester/MDS T/T now, and although Parama has acted quite scummy, he's had a few posts that do not logically come from scumParama (Thank you to Pieguyn for pointing out 4095 and wriggling some analysis out of me)
Scout has been badposting a lot, and I still definitely believe there's at least one scum in {parama, arthur} for the shadow push. Although parama looks far worse on the shadow wagon and post shadow flip, again, parama has said some things that just don't make sense coming from scum, and was townread by far more dead townies than Arthur.
The one and only thing that gives me pause is Nahdia scumreading Jester/MDS.nah-
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I wasn't implying you killed IC pair because you were scared of them, I was trying to say that we should put some weight on the reads of confirmed townies.
If you would read my posts today, you would realize that I have drastically changed my mind on almost every slot in the game over this day phase, and reasons as to why.nah-
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I'm calm, just bad at mafia.
I feel like mds' behaviour has just been her intentionally acting scummy so that their pair can get lynched and removed from the game peacefully. I feel like her asking so many times whether she was ok to leave was just her gauging the waters to see if town would mind. I believe minimal conflict is her win condition in this game, even above her role PM.
I don't understand the latter part of that post. I don't think there's three T/T pairs?nah-
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because exactly like i said in the full post, parama has said some incredibly scummy things (HINT HINT SHADOW REACTION IN PT) but there's other things that I do not see coming from scum at allIn post 4257, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:Also you're the one who came out of the gate during this day and said Parama's reaction during night in your PT looked fabricated, how do you turn around and do this:In post 4254, Human Sequencer wrote:parama has said some things that just don't make sense coming from scum
idk how to answer this. it might be that i have a very basic input/output personality that once you understand becomes very easy to interpret and surmise upon. i'm actually terrified of how i will be as scum for when i actually roll scum because of it. i don't really think it'll matter though, because people already seem pretty split between "110% Obvtown" and "Relatively Scummy" wrt my town play.In post 4291, Dunnstral wrote: Why are you so predictable, if you are indeed town?
please read my posts today in which i described how my read on parama changed literally as it happened.Sure. Except I'm not misguided, and you were doing a stunt early in the day where you scumread parama but that doesn't add up here anymore
@arthur we should play chess sometime.nah-
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Human Sequencer allMafia Scumall
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i'll do my best!
wait are you implying i'm dying today *grumble grumble*
despite what i have said before in pt i'm actually quite enjoying the game mostly due to a stellar playerlist, i like almost everybody still alive and really like a few of them
i just got demotivated because the game is -hard- instead of -easy- like usual but i chalk that down to being against actually good scum who can actually play the game properly (a first for me tbh)
FUCK THERE GOES HUMAN BUDDYING AGAIN IS THERE NO LIMITnah-
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your reads were 100% on point last game until you started scumreading me for ???
this is also why i posted the following
and why i'm still not totally against dying today i just fear you being scum or you being town and getting scumread to deathIn post 4217, Human Sequencer wrote:i think even though he's being overzealous he can absolutely win the game for us with enough information which is partly why i don't mind taking the bullet todaynah-
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nah
let's instead lynch me and let pie/dunn fight for victory
one of them is town, and town has the inherent advantage in a logical argument of potentially being right, whereas scum can't be right AND play to their wincon.
VOTE: HS/Parama
i trust that at least one of them has the game solved and i also trust that the one who is correct can win the game tomorrow.
i think this strategy has the highest chance of victory for town
whichever one out of you is town, you can do it! i believe in you! ganbatte!
if any other wagon gets to l-1 i am suiciding, fun fact (sorry smith, i'm not as good at mafia as you, still love you)
btw really looking forward to that analysis from smith, and would rather get that before we end the daynah-
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yo hey guys im here
so we've got all of these chain-lynching plans set up and i dont agree with any of them at all, even though a lot of it is coming from town
dunn's plan is not smart, but i don't see any way it's not coming from town.
or rather it is smart, just not correct.
we need to hear smith's input before we end this day- he's made a lot of noise about voting analysis but hasn't actually done much. i get that he's busy, but the game is literally on the line at this point, and i trust his analysis over most others' in the game. i doubt that he's scum.
sad/scout must go today or tomorrow. the more time we let go with scout's vote sitting around the more dangerous this game gets, and sad is not unlikely to flip scum.
i don't mind going today but if that's the case sad/scout MUST go tomorrow. can i get enough people on board for that?nah-
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and also i wouldn't mind surviving until endgame but i just don't think that's likely at this point.
i don't think a scum/scum pair is unlikely, but i'm unsure of where it is. could be arthur/scout. all the more reason that they -must- die tomorrow or today.
if jester/mds is being lynched i'd MUCH rather it happen in an endgame with jester/mds and pie/smith because i don't trust any pair as much as pie/smith. that's my preferred endgame-- jester/mds and pie/smith.nah-
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this is a hilarious post even if i don't agree with where it comes fromIn post 4815, Kagami wrote:Great, smith.
As an additional challenge, let's put a 3-name limit on said configuration, a 400-word limit on why they're scum together (spoilered/linked quotes not included), and a 0-word limit on how to play mafia.
arthur today looks like a wolf in sheep's clothing. i feel like he's intentionally towning it up and buttering people up and it feels disingenuous to me.nah-
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@funnstral
I really can't agree with that plan. I'm sorry.
It really doesn't matter though, because I probably won't be around to see it. I haven't dug too much into isos and associations yet (usually best to save that for post flip imo) but there's some things in there I just can't agree with, like this.
If HS/Parama flips town, Arthur/scout must die.If, however, HS/Parama flips town:
My biggest suspect would be mhsmith/pieguy. Of the two, mhsmith is more likely. Though it can certainly be pieguy
But on the other hand, you've clearly done more research into it and I really feel like you're town. So I'm not entirely sure I can objectively fault it.
I just can't see pie/smith being scum. I could absolutely be wrong. I just don't believe it to be the case. And if either of them are scum, I have been thoroughly outplayed.
and no its not just because i rent to them both for living in their pockets i promise :<nah-
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I townread literally everybody arthur wants to lynch. Lynch this.arthur wrote:Parama/MDS/Dunn??
Parama/MDS/mhsmith??
HOLD THE PHONE ACTUALLY
I 100% rescind my townread on smith. Check this out.
Spoiler: Smith a few months ago, newbie 1714
I know this is super old news to most of you but my townread on smith relied on his personality just not working with the play he'd have to pull off here in a scum slot.
Now I'm not so sure. This was the asterisk, I always needed to check this out but just never got around to it.
After seeing his play in 1714 compared to his play here, he's no longer a townread.
Jester/mds is my preferred endgame pair.nah-
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i have barely read positionally at all in fact earlier i was complaining to parama in pt earlier about how the game of mafia everybody else seems to be playing is so different from the game of mafia i'm trying to play wrt chain lynching and positioning and the whole heck
i have had two hours of sleep in the last ~50 hours so i'll see if i can get around to some actual proper legitimate backed up reads later but don't count on it
also its not really worth waiting for either because my reads this day phase are changing like the wind, but i'll be as logical as possible because FUCK I REALLY WANT TO WIN THIS GAME EGH
its also worth noting actually trying to write out my reads will probably change again because i'll come across something that changes my mind
at this point i'm fairly confident i might be able to read the scum if i really give it my all but fuck the problem is is it really worth it to invest that time (THATS A LOT OF TIME) when i'll probably just be lynched and have my reads dismissed anyway next to people like dunn?
a big problem i see is that everybody is being a town leader and everybody is setting up their own win phases that might definitely win for them but there are always some people who are notably against it, and because everybody thinks their plan is better ofc they're not going to follow another persons' thingy
which is partly why i think logic is CRUCIAL right now and we need to get some things established as ABSOLUTE GENERALLY HELD FACT as a base for people to work off of instead of one bajillion lines of speculation half of which falls apart is one little assumption is incorrect
eghnah-
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im so sorry pie i can't engage with that post atm i am now on a MISSION and refuse to give in, get back to me when i'm all updated but i really don't buy into those conditional 'if x is y then z is bbq' reads atm because my head has been out of the game for so long which is why i'm on the MISSION to get some rereads going then get back to menah-
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MDS: The Post
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I'm not so sure if this is entirely a joke or not, but it looks like MDS has no qualms leaving on Jester. If we can get MDS locked in as town, we can pretty well confirm Jester as town, because MDS can read Jester like a book and she clearly hasn't replaced out at this point.
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MDS thinks Jester is town. Also scumreads Arthur next post.
888
This post is a bad post, but it's also a very town post.
MDS is an emotional player who is against conflict and negativity. She says in this post that she scumreads Shadow for pretty much being a jerk. In townMDS' mind, she can easily correlate 'Shadow is a dick' to 'Shadow is scum' based on a few dodgy logical leaps, and without much thought can just reflect that into the thread. scumMDS cannot do that. There is no way scumMDS can do those mental gymnastics because townMDS -knows- Shadow is town, and I don't buy for a second that MDS is pulling this stunt to be townread, simply because of how stupid her logic in this post is (no offense luv). This means that she isn't scum in two ways: she would be scumread for 'omg wat a bad vote lmao' which scumMDS is surely aware of (invalidating her motivation to do it for towncredit) and it's also so obscure and relies on somebody interpreting her personality in such an accurate and specific way that it wouldn't work on anybody and scumMDS -knows- that. There is no way this post would get past scumMDS' filter.
I could honestly stop here with how much that post bleeds town, but I'll proceed on my MDS iso. I'm posting this now to see how many others agree with this, it reads as pretty striking evidence to townMDS to me.nah-
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Feel free to direct me to any posts of MDS you think I should read and want comment on, everybody, in the same vein as pieguyn did with that parama post ages ago.
I read so much better when I'm being reactive, I INVITE this we are a TEAM and it will be HELPFUL.
Jester: The Post
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Comes out of the gate lookin' real shit lads, this looks like two scum distancing like holy shit, how did cerb flip town?
There is absolutely no logical thought behind this if it comes from town. townJester is making a stupid push over absolutely nothing. The only town motivation for this is if Jester legitimately believes what he's saying or is trying to generate more content in the early game (a ploy I love to pull) which wasn't needed at that point because everybody was hyperposting like shit. Scum motives could be distancing (or not lel) or maybe just... yknow there isn't really any scum motivation apart from distancing. It could otherwise be interpreted as trying to get a wagon started, but surely scumJester would be so much more careful of what he's saying? Would he make a double take and realize that what he's saying makes no fucking sense at all and will not amount to a wagon under any circumstances?
I came up with another town motivation too, he could very easily be trying to persuade Nahdia to refuse accepting that invitation to push his 'town don't pair with IC' agenda through a few logical leaps. Man, now I feel bad I ever scumread this post because the scumread falls apart after some simple logic.
Anger reads as genuine.
1088 1093
There is L I T E R A L L Y no scum motivation to do this apart from 'Townread me for pushing my partner!' which is pretty damn farfetched at this point in this context if you really think about it.
Interaction with HS that starts in 1109.
Really genuine. Scum don't like the spotlight on them, and the whole argument serves scumJester no purpose, unless he got pissed off that he was scumread which doesn't seem consistent with his personality. Much more likely to me is that townJester would get pissed off for being scumread.
1589
Notably against the shadow/mariar wagon.
2637
A little LAMIST, but he makes a good point. Scum motivation could be him trying to get towncred through pointing this out, but that falls through because Jester had posted earlier that phase and only mentioned this when asked to explain why he's town. Town motivation is literally just asking a question.
MDS/Jester is town.
Moving on to the next slot.nah-
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Add to this that there is actually no way to start a wagon at this point because it's pre-dance.HS wrote:146
Comes out of the gate lookin' real shit lads, this looks like two scum distancing like holy shit, how did cerb flip town?
There is absolutely no logical thought behind this if it comes from town. townJester is making a stupid push over absolutely nothing. The only town motivation for this is if Jester legitimately believes what he's saying or is trying to generate more content in the early game (a ploy I love to pull) which wasn't needed at that point because everybody was hyperposting like shit. Scum motives could be distancing (or not lel) or maybe just... yknow there isn't really any scum motivation apart from distancing. It could otherwise be interpreted as trying to get a wagon started, but surely scumJester would be so much more careful of what he's saying? Would he make a double take and realize that what he's saying makes no fucking sense at all and will not amount to a wagon under any circumstances?
I came up with another town motivation too, he could very easily be trying to persuade Nahdia to refuse accepting that invitation to push his 'town don't pair with IC' agenda through a few logical leaps. Man, now I feel bad I ever scumread this post because the scumread falls apart after some simple logic.
This post is a smoking gun. With cerb as town there's no way scumJester would post this. I don't buy for a second scumJester is thinking far enough ahead and on a deep enough logical level to think about what other people think her intention behind this post is in the happenstance that cerb flips town. No fucking way.nah-
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oopsIn post 5001, Human Sequencer wrote: 2637
A little LAMIST, but he makes a good point. Scum motivation could be him trying to get towncred through pointing this out, but that falls through because Jester had posted earlier that phase and only mentioned this when asked to explain why he's town. Town motivation is literally justansweringa question.nah-
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If that one post cannot come from scum then Jester cannot be scum
Break it down into a lot of little pieces and apply simple logic instead of overthinking the situation
Occams razor yadda yadda something something Jester is town
MDS, do not suicide. You are a town/town pair and would be gamethrowing.nah-
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^@MDS This post also cannot come from scum. There is no scum motivation for this post unless MDS/Jester are scum together which is -not- true. MDS cannot lie about this with Jester as town in thread, otherwise they are a powerlynch.
@Kagami
There is no scum motivation for it whatsoever, and a few legitimate town motivations. I covered this in Jester: The Post. If you disagree with my logic, please cite it and tell me why.nah-
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Yes, it is horrible. Absolutely atrocious But your analysis that town cannot play that badly as town is unfounded. There is no limit to how badly somebody can play as town. It doesn't discredit his towniness at all.In post 5018, pieguyn wrote:
that post is terrible. it shows no critical thought whatsoever and reads to me like he felt like he had to come up with a push early game and didn't realize how completely terrible his push was.In post 5008, Human Sequencer wrote:Pie please tell me how 146 comes from anything, anything, anything other than town and how
Other speculation irrelevant I just think clearing Jester as town for you will help you solve the rest of the game
the entire rest of Jester's play reads the same way to me and it's why I wish I had lynched him D1. his play here is so completely shit if he's town that it was really necessary to get him out of the way yesterday so I wouldn't have to bother considering that someone could potentially play this awfully and actually be town.
Why would scumJester feel the need to come up with that push early game? How does that further his win condition at all, considering that he couldn't even start a wagon at that point in the game because it was still pre-dance? Keep in mind that after dance started (as soon as people are able to lynch) Jester began to townread Cerb and completely stopped pushing Cerb.nah-
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We have established that Jester is a terrible player. For more proof, refer to Equilibrium Mafia on my wiki, or his play otherwise in this game. It is horrible regardless of alignment. Do still you believe he wrote that post simply to 'appear like he's scumhunting'? If he's thinking on that level, two things are true.In post 5019, Kagami wrote:The scum motivation is to appear to be scumhunting. The town motivation is also to appear to be scumhunting. I don't really think there's any other meaningful interpretation to that, and I doubt it's a next level "I'm going to go out on a limb as town to bait some kind of trap / generate content," like you're suggesting. In that case, he'd have likely commented more on the whole shadow scum-slip craziness instead of just bailing on the thread.
1. He is thinking on a level beyond what we have established his skill to be.
2. He would realize precisely how bullshit his push really is.
If you assume 1 to be true, that he is thinking on that deeper level, you must also assume 2 to be true because it's blatantly obvious how bullshit that post is.nah-
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@Kagami You cannot disregard my argument by handwaving it and talking about something secondarily related.
As scum, Jester would not post that read because it would require the concious thought to act as a townie, which would belie the concious thought to analyze his post and read his faked opinion to the level where he would be entirely aware of how stupid what he's posting is.
But you clearly disagree for ~reasons~, in which case explain to me the scum motivation behind 1088.
@Pie I will sort smith and dunn. I will do my absolute best for you.
nvm that was directed to kagsnah-
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Even though we've already won because Jester/MDS is T/T I guess I'll keep going
If you disagree with my logic on Jester/MDS, please point to my posts earlier and logically question the conclusions I have reached, or alternatively link me to a post that incriminates them as scum with why that post was made by scumMDS or scumJester. If you can't do at least one of these, you must, by default, agree with my logic and therefore read Jester/MDS as T/T.
We need to work as a TEAM to get this game working. If I'm wrong, tell me why and tell me concisely. I can be convinced.
Parama: The Post
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underrated post
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This best exemplifies Parama's perspective on Jester atm. Parama picked up a heavy scumread on Jester based on 146 just like I initially did. I would question this, especially considering she pretty hard townread cerb at that point so the 'distancing' plan doesn't hold up, but I really do believe Parama just correlated 'Jester is being a fucking idiot' with 'Jester is scum' without thinking too hard about the potential scum motivation behind his post.
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Oh dear. It begins.
Parama buys into a wording slip (always a bad idea) and then pushes it beyond all bounds.
Parama disappears deep into a tunnel.
Strong scum motivation to get an easy mislynch, but this doesn't hold up to scrutiny because she keeps pushing it past the point where most of town has said 'eh not really' and keeps pushing it anyway. Town motivation for that is 'Shadow just slipped and is obvscum please lynch this', especially with how she keeps pushing later in the game.
373
No scum motivation to point this out apart from a weak 'Scumread my partner for towncred' which is possible, but kinda unlikely I feel.
379
I think here we see Parama falling into the same trap MDS did, but not as hard. It's easy to scumread somebody you don't like.
407
Really weak defense here. Scum motivation would be to paint Kagami in a bad light, except for the fact that with no fuel to burn her argument pitters and patters when questioned. I feel like if that was the intention of this post, she would have dropped it all in 387 instead of waiting until questioned. This reads much more to me as 'Eugh I can't explain why this puts me off' rather than 'Well I wasn't expecting to be questioned so I'm gonna have to make some shit up'.
505
Worth noting Parama is townleaning Arthur at this point. Town motivation for this post is to get some more information and reasoning out of Arthur to sort him, scum motivation is literally only to make yourself look like you're doing that. Slight townpoints for this post.
570
'I scumread Shadow because lolslip and he's a jerk'. Yep, seeing some flashbacks to MDS. The logic from that applies here too, although being weaker.
632
Here is parama, still pushing the shadow scumslip. This could be scum desperately attempting to look like a tunneled townie, or a tunneled townie who truly believes in their read. I think the latter is a little more likely here.
854
Really bleeding town here.
I feel like scum would at least try and fabricate a more in depth case on shadow beyond 'HE SLIPPED' or give up when they realize it has no traction. Parama is just pushing balls to the wall. It screams wrong townie far more than misleading scum. Scum would be far more diplomatic about it, I feel.
1263
Points out an obvious contradiction in Shadow's actions. Not really alignment indicative, as town he would use this as more fuel to get obvscum lynched, as scum he would use this as more fuel to get a mislynch. It's absolutely worth noting that this is a completely legitimate bold-faced lie and is just as incriminating as Parama makes it out to be.
1409
Was fine with Gamma/Vedith dying, T/T. Was fine with Shadow/Mariar dying, T/T. Reflects bad in hindsight.
1438
This is horrible. I can't conceive any good reason to find the linked post 'great', and it reads like straight off buddying. Conceivable town motivation could be to call more people to townread HS, but the logic that's based on is once again shaky.
Parama is really tough to read. A lot of posts are null/aren't worth mentioning. This is where I have to stop this because it's becoming a little grating, but I intend to return with renewed vigor tomorrow. It's looking like Parama will end up unsure, and thus on the lynch list
(implying he wasn't already because mds/jester is t/t)nah-
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https://youtu.be/JaHvO3SJ2c4?t=1m14sIn post 5055, Dunnstral wrote:Dadadadadadadadadada
This is true. I don't like it. I don't want to replace out (reasons) and I also don't want Parama to replace out, I doubt that will do anything but kill the game.Funnstral wrote: WE've got 3 days left from here: parama group isn't going to hit a lynch. Scout group isn't going to hit a lynch. My group is going to suicide at the end of the timer to stop scum from winning; vote smith pair if you think they're likelier scum than me
Master FakeGod, I've enjoyed my time here, but I must request to leave
If we both flip town, powerlynch Arthur/scout tomorrow.
If Parama flips scum, still powerlynch Arthur/scout tomorrow.
Please stop analysing associations on players who haven't flipped yet. Use the information you have on hand to analyze the best lynch for the situation you're in right now, and then use the flips that lynch gives you to inform your decision the next day. Any time spent considering the next day's lynch is time wasted, unless it actually is the next day. Direct all of your energy to the lynch at hand. Don't overcomplicate it and don't let scum let you overcomplicate it.
I believe Jester/MDS is t/t. Jester believes MDS is t. MDS believes Jester is t.
Don't make the game easy for scum (like I did...). I'm sorry my play was so lackluster this game, and also sorry for everything else. Even if we flip t/t, I truly believe town can still win. Good luck!
I know literally everybody else has already caught on to this and I am a literal pants-on-head retard who only just got it today, but smith isn't unlikely to be scum.nah-
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:<In post 5788, Dunnstral wrote:
Favorite postIn post 1947, Human Sequencer wrote:mhsmith-pieneeds to be closely scrutinized but it definitely doesn't need to be today when we haveshadowmariar,jestermdsandvedithgammaall very helpful and informative lynch targets which are all likely to hit scum and every single pair can't be classified as t-t by a longshot.
Dunn's incredible lust to point the wagon literally anywhere else is concerning.
I really think (and parma agrees) that this DP is dragging on without flips. Namely shadow.
it was nice of smith and kagami to defend me of shadow's accusations, but i think they're important accusations to make and they don't come unfounded. i would probably have a bit of a chip on my shoulder if somebody treated me as i did to him in this game.
i'm sorry i fucked you over, shadow. i hope you don't hold a grudge against me, because i don't hate you at all. we had some good synergy in mini 1848, let's try and carry that on into the future.
this was really my first game against a semi-competent scumteam, and it really shows. you all played far above what i've ever experienced before, which is both humbling and refreshing. knowing that there are players operating on this level inspires me to reach a new level of play myself.
i don't think i ever would have caught dunn this game, regardless of my play d1. i'm somewhat ashamed parama was so readily able to run circles around me for so long, and i'm similarly ashamed of how horrible my reads were d1. i'm a work in progress, so please don't judge too harshly, ok?nah-
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funny that pie/smith and mds/jester was t/t, huh
pie, smith, parama, arthur and alice, what do you think the most important lesson i should take home from this game overall is?
interested in parama and fakegod's opinion because they saw my raw thoughts for most of the game
i think i prioritized townhunting too much, and didn't concern myself with lynch order enough. ignoring the d1 asinine tunnel of course.nah-
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