Fire Emblem: Awakening Mafia (Game Over)

[KingdomAces]

I'm here and I have been follwing this game loosely before replacing in. I'm kind of trying to do like five things at once right now, so I'm just going to give gut reads in playerlist order now and reasons later.

Town:
GCBC
Calc
RBD
Nati
Balti
Sakura
Maestro

Null-Scum:
Maki

Saki and ns have been being Saki and ns from what I know of them. I haven't really gotten any sort of read on Nero or Bulba either. Anything relating to DH's iso I haven't really payed too much attention to yet, but I'll do that when I have time, which should be soon enough.

The main question I have is why do people have Rift as town/TSO as town? Those are two townreads that I think I heard people express a lot that I haven't really gotten.

UNVOTE: Baltimorons

[KingdomAces]

I'm around now. If you have any specific questions, ask and I'll answer them as soon as possible, otherwise I'll start compiling as comprehensive of a replace in post as I can make.

[KingdomAces]

If I don't mention someone, then I'm just completely null on them for now.

GCBC: Really this is just gut right now. I can't think of anything specific that makes me think that now though, I think I mostly got this read from when he was being pressured D1.

TSO: Yeah, he's been active and talking about things, but I got the impression that only really had opinions about flavor, and when it comes to anything more meaningful than that he drops out of the discussion.

@TSO

: Why 3K specifically over the plenty of other people who aren't as active?

Rainbowdash: He replaces into an empty slot that has a lot of suspicion on it, and proceeds to voice an incredibly controversial opinion. From a scum perspective, that's just being suicidal. I don't believe that scum Rainbowdash would do something that would be fairly likely to get himself lynched, when there wasn't really any towncred to be gained from it.

Natirasha: I stalked both Paradox Prime and Xenologue, and he stood out as someone who I had townreads on. He seems fairly similar here, so I want to call him town, but I haven't actually seen his scumgame so I can't be too sure. So, basically again just gut. (Before you ask, I didn't get any reads off of Cabd/ffery when I was reading it, so I don't think I'd be able to make meta judgments about them.)

Makiavel: Through D1, Saki still made a few game relevant posts. Maki never really did beyond AtE's and completely ignoring actually related. This is probably more a Anti-AtE Bias read, but I remember really not liking her posts at all.

Baltimorons: Maestro, mafia is mafia. Even if it's a theme game, if flavor can be used to identify scum, then that makes the game not mafia anymore, which would probably have been mentioned before the game started. I think we can be sure that he is either one of the Avatar or Grima, but I don't think we'd be able to figure out which one without first figuring out his alignment, not the other way around. ANYWAY, I don't think not being able to follow D1 is alignment indicative in this case, but her posts D2 have seems to be coming more from a town PoV than scum.

Sakura Hana: I had her as gut town from well before her meltdown, which just confirmed it for me. I'd have to look for anything specific though.

Saki: Something about him seemed town to me from D1, but there have been a few things that have caused me to doubt that. If forced to give a read now I'd say very slightly leaning town, but I really just can't say.

Maestro: His manner seems to be incredibly town. I don't have anything here to say which hasn't already been said.


I really don't want to do any ISO's right now, but I will if asked about someone specific. Regardless, I will do one of DH over the weekend at the latest, and I know I'm going to have to figure out what I think of Saki fairly quickly as well.

[KingdomAces]

Beastcharizard posted once, and it was completely inconsequential. TSO never posted.

[KingdomAces]

I kind of want to know how anyone has a read on him at present. Seriously, from what I remember he's provided next to no content the entire game, and yet everyone keeps calling him town.

Also noted is the fact that the only person that I listed as a scumread is now voting the other person I'm most suspicious of. That can't just be a coincidence.

[KingdomAces]

I don't know how it works, but all I know is that we shouldn't be just assuming anything yet. If it really was as simple as T+T=T and T+S=S, then why would Cephrir even bother hiding the mechanic in the first place?

My opinion on this is pretty much the same as my opinion on lynching based on flavor: Despite everything, this is still a mafia game, so I'm going to play mafia. I'm not going to limit myself based on mod-outguessing which has a good chance of being inaccurate. Even if it is, then you're going to need more than your word to convince me that it's not S+S.

Also, I should say that I don't actually have a scumread on you yet, and for the moment I'm just trying to get more information. Maki's latest post seems to me like appeasement, which should mean that he's not scum with you, and for the moment I'm still going to say that Maki is the more likely scum.

[KingdomAces]

I think I understand what you're saying in the first paragraph, but that theory was pretty much agreed upon by everyone anyway, and that didn't stop the creation of six new playerslots.

The point I'm trying to make is that I'm not seeing you as confirmed town, and I'm not going to just based on mechanics alone. I'm also asking everyone who has a townread on you, why they have it, because I'm not seeing it.

Though your last sentence there sounds like you're claiming scum...

[KingdomAces]

I didn't answer it because I didn't understand the question, and still don't. Also, even though a lot of people are calling you as town, Beast proposed to you practically before the game even started, and no one else even considered proposing to you after that, so the argument, whatever it is, seems invalid.

That reminds me, you didn't answer the question I asked you earlier, why 3K?

[KingdomAces]

To Maestro:

Baltimorons: Maestro, mafia is mafia. Even if it's a theme game, if flavor can be used to identify scum, then that makes the game not mafia anymore, which would probably have been mentioned before the game started. I think we can be sure that he is either one of the Avatar or Grima, but I don't think we'd be able to figure out which one without first figuring out his alignment, not the other way around. ANYWAY, I don't think not being able to follow D1 is alignment indicative in this case, but her posts D2 have seems to be coming more from a town PoV than scum.

This got lost in my replace-in wall, but it seems to have some significance again now. I might have forgotten something about your flavor case, so if I'm missing something in my argument here, tell me and I'll look it up again myself.

[KingdomAces]

Actual new points on this then.

1: Mod meta is just as reliable as any other form of meta. It helps when a person is under pressure, but when given room they can actively change it. Since there's only really two absolute main characters, I don't think Cephrir would have what is likely to be a major scum PR deducible directly after Chrom flips. If you just want to flat out disagree on this point, then just say so and I'll just agree to disagree while still leaving my vote off of her, because further argument on this is just going to be noise.

2: Why do you think that only one of Robin and Grima can be in the game? The source had both of them, so why would this be any different? A large portion of your case seems to be based on this one unsupported assumption.

Actually getting into her play, in this particular game I don't think not being caught up during D1 alignment indicative. ISO'ing her D2, it seems to me like she's genuinely scumhunting.

Rainbowdash, I think you have his first point backwards. He's claiming that it is mandatory for at least one of the major characters to be a scum fakeclaim, not that all main characters are necessarily town.

[KingdomAces]

On the other hand, how is it mod meta if it's only been one game so far? That shows that it is definitely a possibility, but that doesn't make it mandatory.

I can't say I know anything about AMoL, (Or even what that's an acronym for) but in this game there's two characters that reach that level of just assuming they'd be town. Just one can go either way, and more than three I'd agree at least one of them would definitely be scum. Because it's just two, even if he didn't know people would call mod meta on him, the ramifications of people thinking that one must be scum are great enough that he had to at least think of it.

Before I address the second post, I should probably say that while I have played the game through once and done all of the side missions except for the last two or three spotpass missions, but that's it. I know the story, but I don't remember every detail. Anyway, the point about safeclaims goes back to a Chrom townflip practically turning the safeclaim into a scumclaim, which no mod is going to allow to happen. About the duality of the Avatar and Grima, there was never a time when one was mistaken for the other. They were connected, but the game focused more on the distinction between them than the connection, so from that perspective it would make thematic sense for them to both be in the game.

There are 26 people alive in the game right now. I definitely understand where you're coming from here, but there are enough holes in it that I don't think you should be lynching one of the people who is more likely to be helpful as town with this early without more evidence. I just think it would be more worth your time to focus elsewhere, and let this sit until you actually have some play from Baltimorons other than just gut behind it.

And I just realized that deadline is in less than 48 hours, I thought we had a lot longer than that. Of the people with votes on them, right now I'd say ns is probably the best lynch, since he's never really been anything other than a distraction from what I remember. Saki and Nero Cain have gotten more reactions from people, so they would be easier to read once we get even a few more flips, and I just haven't gotten any reads from any of them without rereading. Not voting until I do though.

[KingdomAces]

I didn't think that post was that much of a wall. tl;dr: It's just more details about my opinion on the Balti-flavor case. Anyone who's not arguing that feel free to skip everything except the last paragraph.

[KingdomAces]

That was me, and that's not very convincing.

[KingdomAces]

Except for the fact that they are different versions of the same character that explicitly both exist at the same time in the source material and players are constantly reminded that there are still differences between them. I think that's enough of a reason to allow both of them to appear in the game.

[KingdomAces]

So, N2 I did a ns/DH iso, and Saki/Nero Cain/Rift Adrift all seemed incredibly unlikely to be partners with the flipped scum. I'm feeling lazy right now, so I'll only find and quote the specific posts that make me think that if asked.

I also accidentally mentioned that I was getting paranoid that TSO/Beast were actually on two different scumteams when I was trying to keep the QT accusation free.

TSO posted twice right as soon as night started, but he disappeared after that, so nothing interesting from him. Beast was there, but there was nothing that helped me get a better read on him.

Toasty was the child of GCBC/Sakura, right? That means if there's scum in the QT, then either they're dead or they're Sakura, and I still have a townread on her.

I assume optional childbearer meant ns could choose to not have a child if she got married, which would probably be for flavor reasons.

[KingdomAces]

Bulba, you do know that Baltimorons claimed one of the two most important characters in the game, right? I think the better question is why wouldn't he have a PR. Calc didn't die, so what non-fishing purpose could you have for claiming this now?

As much as the flips would help, I still don't think Sakura's scum.

[KingdomAces]

Nati, are you voting Maki because you think he's scum, or because his hammer was terrible?

He's still the closest thing I have to a scumread, but the hammer looked completely null to me alignment wise.

[KingdomAces]

Beast was forthcoming enough, it's just that I'm bad at trying to get reactions out of people myself, so nothing happened that caused me to get a better read on him.

[KingdomAces]

Wait a second, don't hiders also die if the person they hide behind is NK'd? Toasty hiding behind GCBC as he got NK'd by scum makes just as much sense as anything else that's been proposed so far.

Until Sakura dies, I really don't think it's worth pursing this any further because of our massive lack of information. Even with that, I think our lynch is better spent on someone who has a better chance of being scum, because right now it looks like this whole thing is turning out to be a wash.

[KingdomAces]

Toasty didn't know that GCBC was going to get shot last night? I don't understand your point.

From the information we have so far today, I actually am considering the possibility of a single scumteam more likely. There is no reason for scum to shoot Toasty barring Sakura and GCBC being cross scum, so there's a good chance his death was role related. I also know that I was definitely having second thoughts about GCBC town over the night, so he doesn't make quite as much sense as being the target for a double kill as Chesskid did.

[KingdomAces]

N2 Possibilities in increasing likeliness:

Scum kill GCBC, Toasty hides/weak visits Sakura - No, because Sakura wouldn't have mentioned Toasty being weak.
Scum kill GCBC, Toasty hides/weak visits someone outside the QT. - No, he would have told someone.
ScumA kill GCBC, ScumB kill Toasty, entire family is town - Toasty kill does not benefit anyone in this case, so unlikely.
ScumA kill GCBC, ScumB kill Toasty, GCBC is town, Sakura is scum - Any reason to kill Toasty in this case would also be a reason to kill GCBC, so the team that killed Toasty would somehow know that the other team was targeting GCBC. Possible, but too many "if"'s for it to be a major possibility.

Scum didn't kill GCBC - Implies other role shenanigans all over the place which isn't worth trying to figure out right now.
Sakura and GCBC are on opposite scumteams, and something happened in the QT that required both teams to shut anyone that might mention it up.
ScumA kill GCBC, Toasty hides/weak visits GCBC - ScumB's kill is lost in this case, either because of a no-kill or other role things.
Toasty hides behind GCBC as scum kills him. - The only possibility where everything is accounted for while not assuming that someone felt like scumclaiming in a QT. Simple. Clean.

---

I had a point when I started writing this. Unfortunately that was about an hour ago so I forget what it was. I think my point is though that with all of the other possibilities besides the last one, there are just way to many questions that just aren't going to be answered for the moment. We can come back to this later if we get a second scumteam flip or if someone claims a protective role, but until then I don't see any problems in just assuming the last one and just focusing on other things.

[KingdomAces]

About Balti, all I know is that the timing of Bulba's claim just feels way off to me, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt until this plays itself out, so I don't know if it's worth thinking about that until Balti gets here either.

Don't ask me for ideas of what to do in the meantime, I've got nothing. I just think that anything else about either of these topics is just noise, and it would probably be better to have nothing than to continue arguing over things that we are never going to be able to figure out. Because of that, this will be my last post on either of these topics until we get new information about them.

[KingdomAces]

Maestro, that isn't very convincing.

Maki, you specifically said that you'd hammer anyone who got to L-1. Are you trying to argue that you actually thought ns was scum the whole time? Also, before PV proposed, you were trying really hard to get

anyone

to propose to you. Only after someone actually did, and it was a proposal that a lot of people were against, did you even show any hint of hesitation. That seemed more like you trying to cash in on the towncred that was going around for people who didn't want to marry, and you bringing it up like this now only makes it seem more like that.

And based on interactions, there's almost no way ffery is scum with ns/DH. Maybe if multiball, but without clear evidence of multiball we shouldn't be deciding lynches while ignoring connections.

[KingdomAces]

Saki, is there any particular reason we should trust you about flips vs. quicktopics?

[KingdomAces]

Saki, I'm not saying that I think the QT's are worth it. My question is why we should trust

you

, since you haven't gotten married and you haven't expressed strong enough of an opinion on AD so far this game to make a statement like that. Since by the manner of your post there's some level of emotion influencing your opinion, I'll retract the question.

Also, Shamrock isn't dead, so there's no real reason for Rift to talk for him.

[KingdomAces]

TSO, where were you at night?

[KingdomAces]

Anything you have to say about it now?

And ThirdKoopa, you might want to check the public mechanic again.

[KingdomAces]

VOTE: Makiavel

This feels wrong due to wagon speed and the fact that I don't think I've ever been right on a gutscum read before, but aside from that I think I've already said some of my reasons, and while I still think that his hammer was null, everything else seems to be pointing to Maki being scum here.

[KingdomAces]

Okay, just two more questions for Bulba then.

1: Why did you claim this today, and not either yesterday or waiting until you had more results?
2: What about last night's result?

The main problem I had with you before is that your timing of the claim was absolutely terrible, especially since you weren't actually claiming something that actually confirmed him as scum. This only helps the second part. There is still the massive question about why you wouldn't hold off and get more results, since there are still two other people that can claim them for you if you die.

VOTE: Baltimorons

I trust your result since its accuracy will be revealed on his flip, but something still really doesn't seem right about this.

[KingdomAces]

At the beginning of D2 he said his child was Laurent, I think that answers your question.

Okay, I think I'm fine with Bulba's claim now, even though I still think he should have waited a day or two for more results before claiming.

[KingdomAces]

UNVOTE: Baltimorons

Are we really ready to be ending the day yet?

[KingdomAces]

This is starting to get really weird. Night two, the two people that my opinion fell most drastically on in the QT at night were Calc and GCBC, then GCBC ends up dead. Night three I mention a scumread on AD, Beast (and TSO as well after the QT just became inactive) agree with this, and then AD dies.

Seriously, if this is just a coincidence, then it's a really strange one. AD was pretty much a non-figure up to this point, and was barley mentioned in public either. He makes no sense as a kill.

Aside from that, Rift was obv-town, so I don't know why Maestro is looking for evidence of someone trying to crosskill him.

RBD, are you talking about Maestro or Maemuki? If it's the former, then how do you explain the Telah kill? That was a terrible person to spend a kill on for scum, since there was a good chance he would make an easy mislynch down the road? Also, are you going to explain why you think BF fakeclaimed?

[KingdomAces]

Maestro did, which is why I'm asking RBD why he thinks Maestro killed Taleh if he was scum.

Of course, that is assuming RBD didn't mean Maemuki by that. I could try to ISO both of them to fact check before asking questions, but I don't feel like doing work right now.

And also, while I do condone a Maki lynch, don't we want to wait for everyone to post. Like our claimed investigative PR?

[KingdomAces]

I actually have ThirdKoopa as far more likely not scum with Balti because of that post, and he is not the only person active lurking in this game. I don't see how he's confscum at all.

I'm not getting anything from Maemuki either way. All I do know is that Maki is pushing her for flawed reasoning even though it's already been stated why it is flawed. What this is telling me is that we should probably sort out Maki before Maemuki, especially since we're not going to get the latter's flip anyway.

I am Brady, and if I wasn't I would have mentioned it by now. I still don't think that Ceph would make a game that is completely breakable by flavor though, so I wouldn't say that this actually confirms that TSO is Maribelle.

Questions:

Maemuki: Why are you so quick to give Elli the benefit of the doubt while being extremely hesitant about Calc?
Muffin: Where are you getting the Beli townread from?
I had a third, but I forget what it was.

One final note: Literally all I've done in the QT was look for interactions to flipped scum, so I don't understand how you're saying that I'm not selectively scum-hunting based on that.

[KingdomAces]

That would be TSO, which he already claimed in thread earlier. I'm still not too sure.

What haven't I responded to specifically?

(Also, I'm actually just about to leave, so don't expect a quick response.)

[KingdomAces]

Temporarily back now, and I just want to reiterate that I'm fairly sure that I had some sort of response of everything important that happened in the past few pages, being Muki v. Maki, Nero on 3K, and you and Nati calling me town for things that I'm not sure I was actually doing.

If you want more than what I've already said, you're going to have to be more specific, because I don't know what you are trying to get at.

[KingdomAces]

Spoiler: Response to Nero Cain's questions from earlier that probably even he forgot about.

I actually have ThirdKoopa as far more likely not scum with Balti because of that post, and he is not the only person active lurking in this game. I don't see how he's confscum at all.

Who else is active lurking besides maybe Eli?

Explain your read on 3k?

People who have active lurked all game: T S O/PeregrineV/Belisarius/beastcharizard/Ellibereth/Thirdkoopa
Active lurking before today: StubbsKVM/penguin_alien

Balti listed both ns and DH on his null list, which is already known for being a major place where scum like to hide their buddies. Two of four is already pushing it, absolutely no way would he put more than that. So, basically the exact opposite of the reason you think he's scum with Balti. If it is multiball (which still hasn't been proven, so we shouldn't be just lynching people who cannot possibly be Grimleal) then I don't have a townread on him at all.

Sakura still seems town, so I still don't want to lynch her. A claimed PR already wasted a shot trying to confirm something about that family, we don't need to waste a lynch doing the same thing.

That reminds me, that was what my third question was going to ask before I forgot it.

Bulba:

What did you think you were going to accomplish with that track? Yeah him targeting Sakura would pretty much confirm Sakurascum, but if there was a chance that Toasty targeted her, then she wouldn't have mentioned that Toasty could have been a hider/weak in the first place. So there was literally no other possible result you could have gotten from that.

There isn't a case on Maki, because the entire push is pretty much a lot of people all having a gut scumread on her. Normally I'd have a problem with this, but I have it as well so...

And

Saki:

Why does GCBCscum mean Riftscum? I don't think you've explained this, even though you've been pushing it as fact.

[KingdomAces]

I agree that Cadb and ffery looked like they had a connection; they looked like players who have played with each other a lot before, and who have hydra'ed in fair number of games as well. That has nothing to do with either of their alignments this game, though the fact that it got as big as it did suggests more to me that they were less likely to be teammates this game, not more.

[KingdomAces]

So you're saying you didn't kill AD?

I still don't think he makes sense as a scum kill.

[KingdomAces]

I'm finding myself agreeing with Nati about 3K. Especially since it seems like he still doesn't understand the mechanics of the game.

I'm also finding myself wondering what the heck TSO is talking about, with the cop with guilty on 3K softclaim, which he immediately retracted and started calling him town for.

That's really all I have to say right now. I definitely am going to have to reread NC v. RBD at some point, but for the moment I really don't have too much of an opinion on it.

[KingdomAces]

The people who haven't married yet pretty much all don't want to have children, so if that's your reason for asking you can forget about it.

While you're here, do you have any reads currently?

[KingdomAces]

Really, I still have no clue about that. I'm still not convinced it isn't TvT. I get the feeling that the one we end up lynching is going to flip town, and then people are just going to pile onto the other one without really thinking about it.

I mostly don't feel in the mood to do work right now though, and gut isn't helping me on this one.

[KingdomAces]

Except for the fact that I never voted ns. And that the only reason that my vote was on Baltimorons in the first place is because PimHel had it there when I replaced in, and I unvoted him in my first post.

I don't really understand what you're saying with the last bit though.

Nati, what information would you get if either RBD or NC flipped town?

[KingdomAces]

But at least while they're going at it they're providing information for

when I stop being lazy

later. Leaving Maki alive is going to get us nowhere.

The only reason I don't really want to lynch Maki is because I'd rather Beast kill her so the entire group can talk about the lynches that actually matter.

I'm not actually helping anyone here, am I? I should have time to do more useful stuff tomorrow, though there's no guarantee of motivation.

[KingdomAces]

My current read on PV is probably not scum with Balti, even though I know Beast disagrees.

I can't say I have a townread on TSO, but pushing for his death now is kind of pointless, since a lot of people are calling him town for some reason, and the claimed vig is married to him. I don't know what happened with the massclaim, but after TSO's part in it I really think that he needs to fullclaim now even if we abandon the rest of the massclaim, because of his interactions with 3K throughout it.

Why is RBD worth a vig if he isn't worth a vote?

[KingdomAces]

Sorry, I've been procrastinating everything recently, so I really don't have time to actually do any rereading. I don't think I'd be able to give a proper opinion on RBD v. NC without doing that though, and pretty much nothing else seems to be going on.

So basically this is a prod dodge.

[KingdomAces]

To all of those saying that it's multiball: What would any scumteam have to gain by killing AD over someone else who is not only seen as town, but is also actually contributing?

I know that it's not likely a town directed kill since no one has claimed it, but everyone seems to just be jumping to the conclusion of two scumteams even though this kill really makes no sense from a scum perspective.

[KingdomAces]

I'm not suggesting anything. All I know is that if scum were going to aim for someone who was generally read as town, they had a lot of far better options: BulbaFenix/Natirasha/Sakura Hana/Maestro/Shamrock/TSO according to most/possibly me are all fairly universally read as town, are contributing more to the game than AD was. Rift should probably be included in there as well, because the other team wouldn't have known they were getting killed. Not to mention that all of them except Sakura/Nati wouldn't have flipped, making them even better NK candidates when compared to AD.

No, I don't know what else could case his death, but I'm trying to eliminate the impossible here, and scum thinking that AD was their best kill last night is pretty near impossible.

[KingdomAces]

Last time I'm going to post today, because there's a few things IRL that I need to do, so I'm forcing myself away from this.

If it was a PR hunt, yet they explicitly ignored Bulba, then that means that they thought that he was lying about his claim, which is pretty much only RBD, or that Bulba is actually scum on that team. I'm not drawing conclusions from this, it's just a note so I don't forget when I get the chance to come back to this.

[KingdomAces]

Still busy, so I still don't have an opinion on an RBD lynch. My schedule should temporarily be clearing up in the next week or so, it's just now has not been a good time for me.

I believe that I already responded to RBD's accusations against me, and I don't think he mentioned it at the time. Aside from that, the only other thing that I can really say right now is that I'd personally prefer a Maki vig tonight, but if I get time I'll doublecheck PV/3K/Beli and discuss them with Beast in our QT. For the moment, I think those are the only people I could endorse vigging right now, because I feel that there's no reason to shoot someone who is more active and won't flip while these people are still here. Yes, I know that Beli doesn't really fit in that category, and he would be better suited for lynching consideration in the future, but to me he just barley falls in the viggable category, which is why he is listed last.

Also, run-on sentences. Yeah.

[KingdomAces]

Do you have a specific reason that makes you think that you're going to die?

[KingdomAces]

So... is there going to be some bomb that only affects the unmarried or something? I don't see how your marital status has anything to do with your life expectancy.

So no, Saki is not right.

[KingdomAces]

V/

LA

until the 16th, after which I should actually have time to do things. Sorry for being useless today, I just have a lot going on.

[KingdomAces]

Yeah, there's absolutely no way Elli is Grimleal. Not only is this continuing from Balti's early D1 reads list where he calls DH/ns/TK/Elli null, but looking at Elli's ISO to see if I can figure out what the heck he's talking about, pretty much all he did post-D1 is call ns/Balti(/Saki) scum while giving pretty much no reasoning. With one of his team already down, he is in no position to be bussing two more of his partners, especially with this little overall effort.

I still really don't want to deal with RBD/NS. That's all I'm going to say about that.

I know I'm going to be advocating a Maki vig. The vigs really should be used for people who we'd want to lynch, but don't want to waste a lynch on, and Maki pretty much fits that description exactly right now.

I'm starting to get a stupid theory that's really stupid and even if it's right won't help us now. Saying this here is more of a reminder to talk about it to Beast (and possibly TSO) tonight, and I will mention it tomorrow, but the last thing that we need now is one of my crazy conspiracy theories.

[KingdomAces]

Elli, if that is a claim, then I'm actually tempted to go along with it, noting that I would suggest to Beast that you shouldn't have a chance to explain yourself if Saki flips town. Are you really saying that this press is role based?

[KingdomAces]

I'm not sure if I'll be on again before deadline, so...
VOTE: Saki

I trust you to only lynch him if someone clarifies that this is a role based push though. I'll try to get on again, but this is just in case I'm unable to.

[KingdomAces]

UNVOTE: Saki

I thought deadline was today. I don't trust Elli's reads as being more than just reads, and other than that I remember having a mild townread on Saki myself.

[KingdomAces]

I was going based on my memory with Saki because I hadn't actually paid attention to him since night. This whole exchange though is really coming off as Sakitown, even though I still think that Sakura's death would be worthless since they are likely to flip town/town/town.

At this stage, I really think that lynching between RBD and NC is necessary, if only because while they are still alive, they are never going to stop getting being the center of attention. I think I have a decent amount of time now, so I might actually get around to those ISO's soon.

[KingdomAces]

VOTE: Saki
Something seems incredibly wrong about this, but he does have the past pushes against scum to back it up. I would say still lynch one of RBD/NC then vig Saki, but I still think it's more worth it to save the vig for Elli in case of a Saki townflip.

Fenix, While you're here, can you say whether you've read the game at all?

(By the way, I haven't actually started those ISO's yet. Doing that now.)

[KingdomAces]

(Nevermind, I got halfway though and learned absolutely nothing. Finishing later.)

[KingdomAces]

UNVOTE: Saki

Assuming Saki is town, then Elli is scum. Why has no one suggested Saki kill Elli yet?

This means that we probably are back to NC vs. RBD for lynching, unless we NL which isn't going to help us at all. That means I have to actually read now. *grumble*

[KingdomAces]

Nati, what if all of the unflipped are town? Also, I don't think it's possible for TSO/Beast to be scum that are on the same team because of my existence.

And if Saki is town, then we'd want him to use his shot tonight, so no matter what lynching him now is a bad idea.

[KingdomAces]

I really don't think that anyone else should be marrying at this point, we

really

need the flips, especially since we have no clue what the structure of the scumteam(s) is/are.

And I think Cabd/Ffery did have some sort of outside communication. Called Morph the Cat. If they were able to talk about this game outside the topic, then they would have had their massive paranoiafest over each other there, and not here. I still can't be sure about cops, but at this point I'm confident enough in Rifttown.

[KingdomAces]

VOTE: Rainbowdash

I just don't trust the way Elli went about this, and I still think we should let Saki attempt to vig someone. I'll try to get on again before deadline, but it's unlikely.

[KingdomAces]

Something about this whole Saki/Elli situation really seems off to me, so I'm not convinced it's that simple. The only lynch possibilities right now are Saki and RBD, and I've already explained why I think we shouldn't lynch Saki, though a NL would still be worse.

Anyway, leaving again now and I'll only be back a few minutes before deadline, which I think is under an hour at this point.

[KingdomAces]

Yeah, I think this pretty much near confirms there being a single scumteam, as well as cops town. The child alignment info she posted also makes it far more likely than before that Beast/TSO are actually town.

I can't say I understand Elli, but I still think that it's unlikely that he is scum with Balti, though I'll re-examine this at night. I have an idea as to what might have caused him to falseclaim, but there's no point to saying it in public right now.

I think there's probably so much else I need to be saying right now, but I can't really think of anything specific.

[KingdomAces]

I did no reading at all last night because I'm useless.

I don't know what happened to BC's vig. I'm not entirely sure that he ever actually decided who he was going to kill, allowing deadline to run out.

Aside from that, as I said before I highly doubt multiball now, so my paranoia regarding Calc/Bulba due to interactions with scum, and TSO/Beast due to the info Saki gave in twilight, has pretty much disappeared. I still have Sakura/Nati/Elli/Maestro/Third as likely town.

I'm not sure if we should actually be paying attention to this or not, but Saki flipped "Inquisitive." An Inquisitor is a type of Serial Killer who recruits their NK's instead if they survive the attempt for one reason or another. Saki could have targeted someone who got protected N1/N2, meaning there still could be an SK somewhere, but due to how emotional Saki got about his lynch, I kind of doubt he actually still has a chance of winning.

[KingdomAces]

I don't think we should really consider the possibility that scum have a limited nightkill. There are far too many players for that. I do think that T+S=S is likely though, or at the very least the scum are explicitly told what the system is, meaning that if they are going to get a town child they wouldn't marry unless they really think that they need to.

Do you want children claiming also?

[KingdomAces]

I'm a VT, because I'm just some kid who can't even learn to stop calling his mother "ma" despite constant scolding.

[KingdomAces]

Our QT wasn't busy because I'm lazy and non-commital, and Beast and TSO seemed to be on at completely different times. Beast did ask for opinions, I suggested Maki but TSO rejected that because Calc asked Bulba to check him, and he didn't want the vig and information role being on the same person. They narrowed the kill choice down to two people, one of them being Nero, but never actually made a decision before the day opened. Anything I missed that you want to know?

If you want a list of all targets actively considered, you should ask Beast instead. Yes, I was able to see it but they weren't my opinions, and if I remember correctly Beast already avoided naming his non-Nero target, so I don't think mentioning it myself would be in my place.

[KingdomAces]

To be honest, I'm actually more inclined to trust Calc than PV right now, because I have a hunch on what they are going to claim, which explains a lot of what's happened with them so far. Also, Bulba tracked Balti to them N1. This pretty much confirms them as town unless Bulba is scum as well, which I would kind of doubt.

If anything, I think that people who claim VT instead of Childbearer or Proposer are just showing that they didn't check their role PM for exact wording before claiming.

[KingdomAces]

Seriously, stop. There's no point in arguing this when Elli isn't actually here, and if you think that he did have a guilty, then presumably you believe that he's actually town. Why is it worth causing a ruckus in that case?

This will be explained eventually, and if the given explanation isn't any good, you can criticize it then.

[KingdomAces]

...really?

I was assuming that Calc was the watcher who watched GCBC N2, and then told Elli his result during the night. The fact that we lynched on a completely unsubstantiated guilty claim makes me sick, even if it actually ended up being correct. I really can't blame Saki for getting angry over this.

I don't really have any coherent thoughts about Nero Cain right now. Ask me later.

[KingdomAces]

I know town gambits exist. I'm saying that they shouldn't.

[KingdomAces]

Despite the fact that I'm disagreeing with most of what RBD is saying, I'm struggling to find scum motivation in his actions. Yes he's trying to discredit a claimed PR, but seeing as he's not trying to get him lynched because of it, even though he wouldn't even flip to prove him wrong, just makes it seem more like something that he actually believes.

[KingdomAces]

...so you're claiming supersaint now?

To be honest that does make some amount of flavor sense. Speaking of flavor, recover staffs could work for Jailkeeping. I really don't think that we should be to adamant about flavor.

[KingdomAces]

If you get recovered, then it pulls you away from anyone who is trying to kill you, and you also kind of can't do anything when you're being forced to be next to the healer.

Though on second thought that would make more sense as commuter. Even such, I still don't think that you should be using flavor as an excuse to lynch at all.

That doesn't mean I actually have an opinion on Nero. TSO isn't really being convincing, and I'm too

lazy

busy to actually do any research myself.

[KingdomAces]

Oh yeah. Rescue. Sorry, I haven't played Awakening for a few months so I forgot the name. I meant Rescue.

[KingdomAces]

Flavor didn't catch Baltimorons, your track did. If you want to say that you tracked him because of flavor, then all that's saying is that it's enough for you. It's not worth a lynch just because of that though.

And don't you make that face at me. I'll get around to it eventually, but I just can't right now.

[KingdomAces]

That reminds me, are you going to stop wanting to lynch RBD if you get a negative result?

If the answer to that is no, then why are you even bothering to track her anyway, and not use your ability on someone who it could actually make you change your stance on?

[KingdomAces]

NC + Muffin + Maemuki

Those three are best scum bets here.

This was only a little more than a day ago, and aside from the vote you haven't said anything to the contrary since then. I know that I'm being completely useless here, but do you think that I'm actually scum or not?

Aside from that, the only problem that I have with your plan to vig NC is that BC doesn't get his vig off. While I agree that it is more important to let Bulba get more results for now, (that is if he doesn't go doing useless stuff like tracking someone where there was only one possible result, or tracking someone that he'd already tracked previously) but eventually BC is going to need to confirm his role. Literally the only thing that is making me think he's town right now is my alignment, and seeing as BC is the father and not the mother that argument is not quite as convincing. Note that aside from me and Muffin, all of the kids have had some sort of PR. There's still the possibility that TownMother, ScumFather only vanillizes the role that the kid would get.

It's just that I noticed a lot of interactions between BC and Balti a while ago, and seeing him kill someone would pretty much get rid of all of those suspicions.

[KingdomAces]

Can you please stop fakeclaiming investigative results? All you are going to do is confuse people who don't realize that Calc already claimed you are a VT.

[KingdomAces]

He already lied about being a watcher with a guilty on Saki. Calcifer has told us that Elli is a VT. Now you think he's telling the truth about his cop claim?

Just ignore him. He may have been right last time, but that was just because he was lucky. Take it more as a read than an actual result.

[KingdomAces]

Stop making me jealous that I don't have money right now...

[KingdomAces]

Unofficial Vote Count

Rainbowdash 6 (Maestro, Calcifer, Natirasha, penguin_alien, BulbaFenix, Thirdkoopa)
Nero Cain 4 (zMuffinMan, Belisarius, Sakura Hana, KingdomAces)
Makiavel 2 (Makiavel, PeregrineV)
Sakura Hana 1 (Nero Cain)
KingdomAces 1 (Rainbowdash)

Not Voting 5 (TSO, beastcharizard, Ellibereth, Maemuki, Shamrock)

10 to lynch, Deadline is November 1st.

---

VOTE: Nero Cain

The only viable lynches at the moment appear to be RBD, NC, and Maki. Back when I was ISO'ing the dead scum, I thought that RBD was unlikely scum with them, and since it's looking like there's a single scumteam, that being true would mean RBD's town. As I said yesterday before we were distracted by Elli fakeclaiming, Nero vs. RBD is going to only be a massive amount of noise until one of them is dead. I don't think we should be too concerned over lynching Nero even though he's a claimed JK, because we do seem to have more than enough power already, and if he is town, then there wouldn't really be all that much he could do anyway. Also, this way frees BC up to shoot one of Maki or Beli tonight.

[KingdomAces]

Stop making me jealous that I don't have money right now...

Please. If you want to talk about it, there's always GD.

[KingdomAces]

Yeah, he's just trolling you. Ignore him.

[KingdomAces]

The thing about vigging Nero is that he's just going to JK Beast, and that way we don't get role confirmation for BC, and if you're still alive then the entirety of tomorrow is going to be you vs. Nero again. Everything gained by forcing him into a Beast JK is gained more easily by lynching him.

I suppose that I have some amount of bias here, since the next question with your plan would be who we are going to lynch instead, and based on your current vote you would suggest me. I don't exactly understand where you're coming from on that aside from the fact that I'm just being useless. I don't see how my lynch would help the town at all though, since I'm not going to flip.

The only other options right now are lynching you, lynching Maki, or No Lynching. How are any of those better than a Nero lynch?

[KingdomAces]

How am I supposed to know that? It varies by mod, and I don't even know what AMOL stands for. All I know is that if the setup is halfway decent, you're not going to be able to break it just based on guessing what is a fakeclaim and what isn't.

And in that case, then if Nero is scum, then you're giving him free reign to block whoever, and if he's town then there's literally nothing protown that he could do with his JK if he's not going to get the chance to say who he blocked.

[KingdomAces]

What happened to it just being one question?

(Also, 4-2 is nowhere near as bad a 2-3, and 2-1 is pretty much not relevant. I don't think 2-4 makes up for all of that. Anyway, I'm not going to bring this up again to avoid being a hypocrite, so if you want to discuss it further, take it somewhere else.)

[KingdomAces]

Spoiler: I wrote all this and then preview made me change my opinion, so this is only if you want my prior reasoning.

JK may be confirmable, but being a JK doesn't necessarily make you town. You're not going to block the scumkill because it's clear enough that you only plan on targeting BC. (If BC is scum, then he's pretty much caught already as long as you aren't continually targeting him, so if blocking BC does block the scumkill, it's still a positive for BC to not be blocked.

Assuming the fact that we don't lynch you and BC publicly says he won't shoot you allowing you to JK someone else, you are still unlikely to stop a scum kill. Unless there's only one scum member left, the scum are just going to specifically pick the person who you are least likely to block, and JK'ing defensively at the moment has a significant enough of a risk factor that makes it sub-optimal.

Ignoring the fact that I have a mild connection based townread on RBD and just going off of roles, you would still be a better lynch because any possible positive way that you could use your role as town is outweighed by the negative ways that you could use your role as scum.

PEDIT: I completely forgot about letting Bulba track you. That actually would just sort everything out, since I can't think of a reason for you to have targeted PA N2 if you were scum, and frankly, that seems like much more likely to confirm you as town than tracking RBD N2. Still don't JK Beast, I'll try to make sure he doesn't target you.

UNVOTE: Nero Cain

Not revoting yet, because I don't know who would be the best lynch now. I still think RBD is probably town, and a result on you would shut the argument up just as well as you dying, so I guess the best lynch would be Maki?

Sorry for being an idiot who can't think properly.

[KingdomAces]

I forgot to talk about power. What we have claimed so far is:

Retroactive Tracker (I think this would be stronger than a normal tracker because of how easily it can see through fakeclaims.)
JK
Doc
N1 and N4+ Vigs
One shot Corner (Or whatever the standard name for that role is.)
(One shot?) Hider
One shot Commuter
Multiproposer (Named Townie that isn't actually confirmed town, so null.)
Ascetic (Antitown from what we've seen so far.)

vs.

Neighborizer
Goon
Goon
X Unflipped


The problem isn't how much power town has, but how little scum has in comparison. I wouldn't call town power heavy if out of three flipped scum even one of them was actually useful for them, but just based on the scumflips you would think this would be a very vanilla game, and the claimed town power completely goes against that.

[KingdomAces]

Are you forgetting that he already tracked RBD and got nothing? Even though scumRBD was more likely to action N2 than N3, either way it's not confirming anything. If he tracks Nero on N2, then he is guaranteed to get a worthwhile result. Tracking RBD again seems like a complete waste to me.

[KingdomAces]

No, I'm worried that you are our strongest PR, and you already completely wasted one use of your ability and it seems like you are completely invalidating a different one of your results. As much as you study RBD's actions, tracking Nero night two pretty much might as well be a cop. You only have one more shot, and I don't want 50% of your results to be completely wasted.

[KingdomAces]

Largest, the game hasn't been going on for over a year.

And I am planning on voting Maki, but I want to make sure that we're ready for today to be over. I don't have anything left to say that I haven't already said, but I can't be sure about anyone else.

Also, watch the personal insults.

[KingdomAces]

I am planning on hammering eventually, but I changed my mind about not wanting to bring this up again.

I was going to just shut up about this until tomorrow, but the more I think about this, the more I realize that we really shouldn't be trusting Bulba as much as we are. Yes, he already caught one scum, but that was one scum who was already in a really bad position and was doubtlessly going to get lynched sooner or later anyway. Since then all he's done is provide one useless result, and then provide a negative result on someone who he continued to deathtunnel on for the rest of the day. Yeah, tracking RBD N2 is better than tracking him N3. The thing is though, you already tracked him N3 and got a psudo-clear. Now you have a chance to get the closest thing that you are going to get to a cop on someone who has been scumread by a portion of the game the entire time, and you are turning it down in favor of rechecking someone you already got a negative on, and calling whoever points how terrible of an idea this is scum with the person you got a negative result on. This really makes me wonder if you aren't actually a scum tracker/historian trying to use his role as a town fakeclaim, and in order to do that without getting yourself killed, you are are picking the most useless targets and trying to get away with it.

I am not suggesting a Bulba lynch, that would be stupid and accomplish nothing. I'm just trying to make a point, and make a propisition as well. The point is that everyone should stop calling him obvtown when he's really not being obvtown at all. I know that nothing I say is going to deter you from tracking RBD N2 tonight, so my proposition is that if you do get a positive result on RBD for N2, and we lynch him and he flips scum, then I won't argue if you want to lynch me. Unless that happens though, which I would put the chances of at extremely minimal, then from now on you get no say in who you track. Your actions will be decided by majority vote, and not following them would be a scumclaim, because letting you choose your own targets appears to be getting us nowhere.


On a tangential note,

Penguin_Alien should not be using her ability on GCBC.

Yes, it would be nice to know for sure whether they were scum or not, but there are far better uses for that ability. GCBC is only a Sakura death away from flipping, while there are plenty of other families whose flips will be both harder to get and more potent. The first thing that comes to mind is if Bulba ever gets a positive result on someone who isn't going to flip, then that would be the perfect person to use that type of ability on. Another example, if Elli dies while still claiming some sort of PR, then we could figure out his ability and try to decipher his nonsense from there, even if he is still probably just a VT. Another, if two scum married without creating a child, and therefore we have no way of knowing that they aren't going to flip beforehand, then the ability would be better used there as well. As it stands, we are gaining practically nothing with seeing GCBC's flip.

[KingdomAces]

VOTE: Makiavel
I think that's hammer, and I think we've had enough time to discuss what we need to today.

About Bulba, I did temporarily forget about the N4 no kill. While Scum targeting Bulba does sound like the most likely option, there's still the chance that the kill either was on or came from Beast, and also there's a chance he no killed in hopes that there was a doc on him to confirm him as town.

I kind of have a headache right now, so I can't really come up with any major conclusions, but I'll try to get my ideas settled tonight.

[KingdomAces]

I'll back off on Bulba for now, since it's easier to analyze the lack of kill assuming he's town.

I don't think we should be too quick with the 1v1's here. If Calc did target Bulba, there's always the chance that both Nero and Muffin are town, and scum hoped to out WIFOM the doc and went straight for the information role, or that Nero would JK Calc to protect him from what would appear to be the most obvious NK ever.

I'll confirm that TSO specifically encouraged Beast not to kill 3K.

Just another thought, what makes you say that the only options are scum no killed and scum got blocked?

Also, the doctor still being alive is a good excuse for scum not to kill the information role...

[KingdomAces]

I wasn't angry because if you don't notice that I said that I literally didn't care which of the three got vigged. I was surprised, but by the time I saw that the thread was open, BC had already made the explanation post, so there was no reason for me to comment any more about it than I did. I do agree that Beast isn't conftown, but I'm feeling a lot better about that now that NC changed his claim to that he JK'd Calc.

Also, the Mortician and Commuter are both 1-shot, and because of that it's fairly likely that the hider was one shot as well. As well as the fact that the vig is nerfed by not being able to fire the first three nights. You also forgot ascetic on the list, which at the moment seems to just be a macho miller, so just an antitown role with no positives if he is actually town. (Why do you have a townread on PV anyway, I'm getting nothing of the sort from him.)

That would make 5/7 (4/7 if I'm wrong about the hider) nerfed + 1 negative utility. Even that much does seem incredibly town favored, but it's nowhere near as bad as you're making it out to be.

[KingdomAces]

My townread on Maestro dwindled a while ago, but I never really brought it up because it never turned into more than just someone who still has the possibility of being scum.

Looking at the living players list, I actually didn't realize how few people were left. (Yeah 17 is still a lot, but compared to 29 playerslots...) Of that 16, a decent percent of them are psuedocleared in one way or another, whether it's because of role interactions or based on the fact that their continued actions will make their alignment apparent in the long run.

From my point of view, the best three lynches that we could make today are PeregrineV, Belisarius, and Maestro. Sakura and Nati are also options if we want to go down that route, but I really don't think that they're the scum here. I kind of doubt T+T could = S, so I don't see the point in lynching any of the kids unless we would also want to be lynching the parents.

Of those three, Maestro's lynch would give us absolutely no information, so I think we'd have to be completely sure before lynching him, and though I can't say I have a townread on him anymore, I don't think we're at that point yet. I'd have to do a reread to decide which I think would be better of the other two though.

[KingdomAces]

Yes, I was saying why I didn't want to lynch the kids there though. We would get absolutely no benefit from lynching penguin before Maestro, since penguin still has a shot of her role in case they're both town.

[KingdomAces]

If by that you mean against you or Beast, then if I was scum then wouldn't I already know who was scum with me?

[KingdomAces]

Yes. Thoughts about possible PV/Beli/Maestro lynch?

And I think the better question is why you're even questioning where the kill went. There was a claimed Doctor and investigative role. Nero clearly wanted to JK scumreads over townreads. I don't even think it's worth considering that the scum did anything other than attempt to kill the Doctor.

[KingdomAces]

I don't remember that. What makes you say he isn't a scum Ascetic?

[KingdomAces]

Oh yeah, forgot about that part.

You're still missing the fact that Ceph could have given him that claim, since it works from a flavor perspective. I really don't think that we should be factoring in roles in how scummy we think people are, unless the roles are confirmed and/or they have potential to help town if used properly. PV's is neither.

[KingdomAces]

NO! No one else claimed the N1 kill on Telah, so reguardless of his alignment he killed Telah. Tracking Maestro on N1 would be completely useless.

[KingdomAces]

What good would having PA coroner Maestro do? The only way that you would actually get a meaningful result from that is if T+S=T, since otherwise, scum PA would just cover up the fact that Maestro was scum.

Maybe I'm just uncreative, but I really don't think we should be letting Belisarius live to see tomorrow. He's obviously not going planning on being helpful if he's town, and he very well might be scum who can see no other way out then trying to AtE to his fullest extent.

[KingdomAces]

I actually agree with RBD that you should probably be tracking PV here.

I really think that the best play right now would be to lynch one of Beli/Maestro, kill the other one, and then use PR interactions to figure out everyone else who is suspicious right now.

[KingdomAces]

Single people:
Rainbowdash - Town because track.
Natirasha - Probably town because of play.
Nero Cain - Town because he stopped the kill last night.
PeregrineV - Hopefully will be determined tonight.
Belisarius

So, who among these is scum then?

[KingdomAces]

Despite the sarcastic tone, that still was a question that you didn't answer. Who among them is scum?

I'd like to point out that aside from his stance that one of the bachelor's must be scum, which makes absolutely no sense and has no backing, all Beli's done since D1 is be fine with being lynched, which he only started saying that it wasn't actually our best play once it looked like an actual possibility.

[KingdomAces]

That's why I said aside from that. You still haven't said why you think that though, you just stated that we should as if it was fact. If you are going to flip town, then why would that make us more likely to think that there's scum among them?

I'll give you that my reasoning for thinking Nati is town is weak, and Nero could have no-kill gambitted. With currently flipped scum power, I don't see any remaining adult scum being a non-targeting role, and I completely agree with RBD about scumasceticPV definitely being the one to submit the night kill, which we know he wasn't. Assuming you're town, the only other possibilities force non-bachelor scum. I repeat. Who is scum there, and why do you think so? If you can't answer that, then what reason do you have for saying that one of them is scum?

From my POV, the only reason that you would be making this argument is for the AtE, unless getting lynched is actually going to help your wincon

[KingdomAces]

Prodge. I should be able to actually read and post tomorrow, if not later today.

[KingdomAces]

In terms of forming townblocks, you really should be considering RBD. Not only do you have the tracks, but I pretty much have been agreeing with everything he's said today, and I still think that he wouldn't have entered the way he did on D1 as scum. At this point, my RBD townread is surpassing my reads on Nati, who is starting to trigger paranoia factors with so many people seeming confirmed/psudoconfirmed, and my family, who I will never stop being paranoid of until there are two kills in one night for Beast, and until we actually learn something about the child mechanic for TSO. Since I doubt that's actually going to happen, I will say that I do think it is extremely likely that he's town because of mechanics, but I wouldn't stake the game on it quite yet.

And at the very least Insurmountable should definitely be in the townblock. Shamrock was incredibly town while he was here, and Insurmountable has only helped the slot since.

[KingdomAces]

That reminds me, are you going to stop wanting to lynch RBD if you get a negative result?

If the answer to that is no, then why are you even bothering to track her anyway, and not use your ability on someone who it could actually make you change your stance on?

Yes. I think it would be worth checking one way or the other. If we track RBD somewhere, he's scum and will be lynched. If he doesn't go anywhere, then chances are high that he's town having a bad game, for the same reasons I've given for why I want to track him, and town RBD is worth keeping around.

What happened to this?

[KingdomAces]

The most RBD's done with discrediting PR's today is continue putting quotations whenever he mentions that you are a tracker. That hasn't actually factored into anything he's said, or any of the theories behind his reads or track suggestions. Tracking PV/Nero on N2 are both practically cop investigations, while tracking anyone else is just taking a shot in the dark, where a result of went nowhere would mean another wasted action. If anything you are discrediting your own role more than RBD is the way that you are completely ignoring your own results.

I suppose a better question would be "What has changed other than the negative track result since you posted that yesterday." If it seemed like I was extremely against you tracking RBD yesterday, you posting that was the only thing that even made me remotely okay with it, because it gave you some amount of accountability once you inevitably did get that negative result, and if there's one thing that I think is always scummy, it's eschewing your own accountability.

Aside from that, would anyone else like to give an opinion on RBD? Bulba was the only person I didn't want to answer that, because he'd already given his answer yesterday. Anyone else I'd actually want opinions from.

[KingdomAces]

For PV, see RBD's posts on the subject.

For Nero, what possible scum role could he have that would benefit them if he targeted Penguin, especially since that was before Bulba had claimed, so he wouldn't have just used some worthless action for the sole purpose of being tracked.

And TSO, Nero is in practically everyone's townblock aside from you and Titus's. What are you talking about?

[KingdomAces]

Someone just tell me who to vote. I can't deal with this right now.

[KingdomAces]

Sorry, here now. I'll vote for either wagon, but currently don't have a preference.

[KingdomAces]

VOTE: Belisarius

[KingdomAces]

Calc, did you actually ask Bulba to track Elli, and why?

In other news, I'm finally able to say that I feel secure in Beast being town. I know that killing Maestro gave no information, but it's not like we're losing information either, and killing anyone else could have been worse if Bulba tracked them. Which I still can't believe that he has ever done something useful with. Also, the only missing kill that clears him is N5's, and that very well could have been a no kill that night so he is far from clear. Especially with RBD being the kill last night.

Before we rush to end the day, can we decide who Beast should kill tonight, so we can insure that there isn't a tracker/vig crossover? Looking at the entire playerlist and assuming a Nati lynch, I think that the only two people that could make sense as being the kill would be PV and Sakura, despite the fact that PV is incredibly easy to clear and it's ridiculous that he hasn't been cleared yet, it looks like he's never going to be. Also, even though Sakura is being fairly obvtown, it's getting to the point that we might actually need GCBC's flip. Aside from those two, anyone else who could be a possible shot is a child, which none of their flips would actually give information.

More later.

[KingdomAces]

I...

actually might agree with T S O about no-lynching. If scum aren't going to kill the PRs, then that means we are free to get as many results as we want before being forced to kill anyone ourselves, and anyone that the scum kills is one less person that we know isn't scum. Until they decide to kill Nero, scum have the option to either go for a 50% chance at a PR kill while risk giving us a free result, or kill someone who has the potential to be a mislynch later on. That is of course assuming that Nero/Calc/Bulba are all town. If they aren't, then no lynching would still be better, because that forces them to fabricate a larger amount of actions before the end of the game, thus becoming easier to see through.

[KingdomAces]

No, or else it wouldn't be worth it to ever mislynch.

Also, I forgot to mention that now that he tracked Elli N3, all future tracks need to be also on N3 to avoid the risk that scum switched up who did the kills and we catch them both on the wrong day.

And unless anyone can find a logical reason to disagree with the above, then I am going to vote Bulba until one of us dies. From what I can tell, the only reason why anyone would track on any other night at this point is to increase WIFOM, which is exactly opposite of what the town needs at this point.

[KingdomAces]

*No, or else it wouldn't be worth it to ever

no-lynch

.
*I am going to vote Bulba until one of us dies

if he tracks someone on any other night.

This is what happens when I don't spend an hour on every single post I make.

[KingdomAces]

Just going to post my opinion on everyone left, because I can't think of anything else to say right now. Trying to do this with likely town at the top.

Near Conftown:
Calcifer- The only way he's scum is if Bulba is also scum. There is next to no way Balti is using his neighborizer shot on his partner.
beastcharizard- Because how likely is a scum vig? Also, at this point it's safe to say that there's only one scum faction left, with a dead SK and the fact that they would have had to kill no one this entire game until today.
Nero Cain- He blocked a kill. Yeah he could have NK'd, but the gambit he pulled after that looked like it came from town to me.
T S O- Solely because he's my mother.

Very likely town:
Insurmountable- Because seriously. I was even thinking of putting him in the above list despite the fact that he isn't actually confirmed in any way.
Sakura Hana- Still could be scum, but I really don't think so. The only reason I'm even thinking that we could kill her is because GCBC.
zMuffinMan- Mostly because his parents, though his play is pretty town as well.

Confirmable:
BulbaFenix- Him being scum is the strongest gut read that I've had this entire game. At this point I'm probably just hoping I'm right, so I'm ignoring everything pointing away from that. His role in the Balti lynch and the N5 no kill are really the only two things though. Both are still feasible from a scum mindset, but I admit that I probably am just grasping here.
PeregrineV- The only way he's a scum ascetic is if Calc is scum as well, they wanted Balti to get tracked to the kill and specifically didn't have PV submit it so that Calc would be near confirmed town. That's grasping even more than calling Bulba scum at this point is, so it's probably fairly safe to say that if he's aescetc, he's town.

Everyone else:
Natirasha- He's been a townread of mine all game, but at this stage that's not enough anymore.
Titus- Only scum if Ellibereth is scum. Still has a possibility of being town otherwise.
Ellibereth- Everyone else is calling him town, and I don't really have a read on him.
penguin_alien- She's all that's left. If she's scum, then that means either Maestro was scum, or that Bulba is scum, both of which are definitely possible from my point of view.

That's not a lot of wiggle room for scum, especially with a claimed tracker and doctor still alive. At this point, I think that even the scum kill would be helping us just as much as it helps them, because all it's doing is giving us more information. I really think that at this point that there shouldn't be any town directed deaths until scum kill one of Calc/Bulba/Nero, because making the game shorter is scum's only hope right now.

VOTE: No Lynch

[KingdomAces]

Calc also has the negative track result on him, so he can't be the only scum remaining. The obvious answer at this point would be

Bulba

penguin_alien, so after a bit of thought, a negative N3 track on PA might actually be really helpful.

Changed my mind, that might actually be higher priority than tracking PV now that Bulba went and tracked Elli anyway.

[KingdomAces]

Wait, Titus. Not PA. I'm getting everything screwed up.

[KingdomAces]

Nati, why?

PoE is incredibly strong right now, so if you have a legitimate reason to say that, then that might really help at this point.

[KingdomAces]

To be honest, the main reason that I suggested No-Lynching was solely because I wanted Bulba to die as soon as possible and was hoping that the Mafia would actually go for those three. Now that you told them to kill Beast though, I doubt that they'll actually do anything else.
UNVOTE: No Lynch

Looking at the simulations, we still have a good chance playing aggressively as well. I pretty much think that we've already won this game regardless unless scum pulls some crazy gambit, which would be easier to catch if we were playing slowly and scum didn't think to avoid killing the PR's. Since they probably will be, I'd be up for a lynch of any of PA/Elli/Titus/Nati today, while vigging another one of the four, and Beast getting doc'ed and Nero specifically

not

JK'ing either Calc or Bulba.

Beast, do you think that one of Chesskid/RA were scum, even though they were both clearly scum kills, or that T+T can equal S? For Muffin to be scum, one of those has to be true.

[KingdomAces]

Calc also has the negative track result on him, so he can't be the only scum remaining.

What negative track?

I meant Elli. Wow I'm out of it recently.


Beast, RA didn't flip. They were also killed during the same night that AD was, and Saki claimed the AD kill. That pretty much means that they were killed by the scum, and therefore are almost definitely town.

[KingdomAces]

If they did that, why did Balti submit the kill on the same night then?

[KingdomAces]

So, before we start the next night I think we need to decide who Beast is going to shoot. If it was just me and Beast deciding, I'd suggest one of PA/Elli/Titus. Insurmountable mentioned that we should only be killing the adults for now, so that would just leave Elli, and some people are against that, so I think we should come to a consensus now to avoid killing the target of another PR.

Specifically, who do should Beast be killing tonight? Nero is out of the question, because then he'd just JK Beast and we'll get nowhere. If you want to argue for either me or TSO, then don't bother because I highly doubt Beast would listen even if that was decided. Whatever we decide, I think we should be doing it soon though, because not all that much seems to be happening at the moment otherwise.

[KingdomAces]

I want to kill mostly in the families because the only people that aren't are Nati/PV/Nero. I already explained Nero, you can flat out clear PV, and that post was under the assumption that Nati was getting lynched. That only leaves people in the families.

Specifically about PA, if you don't notice I don't trust you all too much, and I never really trusted Maestro either. Everything I'm doing now is based off of PoE, and everyone else I either have a flat out townread on, or have a specific reason to keep alive if they are actually scum.

Waiting for a VC to vote. I don't think there's really anything else to do today, but I don't want to cut the day short just in case.

[KingdomAces]

VOTE: Ellibereth

By a reason to keep them alive, I'm pretty much just talking about Nero/Bulba, who can be verified by continual use of their roles. One shot roles can be easily faked.

As for what I want from you, really all I can say is do something that makes you not the last person left when I look at the entire playerlist.

[KingdomAces]

Nero needs to claim who he JK'd before we decide on a lynch.

And TSO, shut up. Killing Nero tonight would have been absolutely idiotic, because we need to know who he JK'd if he is town, and he needs to give false info if he's scum. Not to mention the track to 3K, which could have completely ruined Bulba's result for tonight.

I agree with insurmountable that PA/PV are the only real lynches today. Possibly NC as well, but I actually think he's town. Regardless, Beast should never kill NC. If town wants to kill him, it should only be by lynch, not by kill. I've been over this like five times.

Bulba, Nero over PV?

[KingdomAces]

A: I finally am starting to be completely confident in TSO town.
B: There's no reason to state who you are going to JK ahead of time unless there is only one scum left. If you state it, then it does nothing.
C: VOTE: PeregrineV

I think that's all I need to say for now.

[KingdomAces]

Elli was mortician'd by PA, who claimed he was a VT. Calc claimed Doctor then was killed by scum. The only ways that they are scum is: A: PA is scum with Elli, or B: ScumCalc killed himself. If you think the former, then you should be lynching PA, not Titus. I'm going to assume you don't think the latter.

Assuming both of them are town, then T+T would have to = S in some cases in order for Titus to be scum, and t we are working off of the assumption that's not possible.

If PV flips scum, do you not think there is only one scum left?

Yes, but why are you only making plans assuming that PV is scum?

[KingdomAces]

Titus lynch gives us 3 roles/alignments that we already know. Sakura lynch gives us two plus one we don't, so it's a bit more feasible, but it's flipping an unknown who is already dead rather than an unknown who is still alive.

Both TSO and I have already decided who we want shot, and I doubt a GCBC flip will change either of our minds. I don't know about Beast, but I personally don't think that even if GCBC flips scum it will be worth shooting someone else due to WIFOM that slot's given.

[KingdomAces]

Both TSO and I have already decided who we want shot

When did you discuss this? Because I doubt it was in the same QT with Beast.

Beast, will you follow me in the QT tonight?

Because I know what I'm doing.

This is all the discussion I needed to make that statement.

[KingdomAces]

Yes. I don't have any evidence of this, but I actually kind of doubt that we agree. I know I don't want to discuss it until tonight though, and I'm assuming that if he wanted to discuss it earlier he would have already said it.

[KingdomAces]

Prod dodge, because I really have nothing to say right now. I think I've made my opinion on everything so far clear, and nothing is changing that. The arguments that are happening right now are just going in circles, and I really don't think me adding to them would help any.

[KingdomAces]

...

So, quicktopic was being slow, and TSO made his case for why Beast should vig Bulba after deadline. I would have explained why that was a stupid idea anyway, but QT timed me out when I tried to post.

Anyway, the lack of another kill tonight pretty much confirms that Bulba was town. I did say that I wanted to lynch Bulba today in the QT, so I doubt that TSO would have wanted to scumkill Bulba. I really just don't know who this leaves then.

Wait, I forgot we have a JK. Nero, we need a target before we actually get anywhere today.

[KingdomAces]

Because you're town and the information to be gained from vigging you would be useless.

[KingdomAces]

I don't disagree with that, but I don't think that necessarily makes him scum. Also, we should probably wait for Nero before voting.

[KingdomAces]

Sakura is obviously a town vanilla. Toasty was a town hider. GCBC could be either alignment, but it's not like knowing that will help us in any way, therefore vigging Sakura gives no pertinent information. I completely disagreed with a Bulba vig, but I was unable to argue against it because I didn't think TSO's argument came in time to allow Beast to change vig targets. I wanted to vig PA and then lynch Bulba today, which while it would get us far more useful information my nighttime tomorrow, plus letting Bulba get his track off in the event he was actually town.

Anyway Nero, there's a pretty good chance you blocked the scumkill. Who did you JK?

[KingdomAces]

Prod dodge until Nero says who he JK'd.

[KingdomAces]

Normally I'd agree, but the issue here is time. Beast said that he was willing to shoot BF three minutes before the day opened, which was four and a half hours after the day was scheduled to open. No way are the scum no killed because Beast said that. I can't say that the events of today have made me start wondering again if both Beast and TSO are scum, but I don't see how that is physically possible from a balance standpoint. Without factoring in balance and parenting, I'd probably want to be voting TSO right now also. As it stands though, I don't see how TSO could be scum without Beast being scum as well, and I don't think Beast can be scum.

Also given the circumstances, I don't see scum killing Bulba. No killing is possible, but I don't think it's actually too likely given the circumstances. The only possibility that I see is that Nero stopped the kill. That's why we need to wait for him before continuing.

[KingdomAces]

At that point, TSO had been away from the QT from four hours as well. I admit it's possible, but it's so highly unlikely that I don't think it's worth lynching over.

[KingdomAces]

By that I meant Beast posted four hours after the last time you posted, not that you were away for four hours and came back.

[KingdomAces]

Why would scumTSO shoot Bulba when I mentioned in the QT that I wanted him lynched today?

[KingdomAces]

No, Toasty isn't a confirmed hider. What the heck else could he be though, and how would knowing it change anything? We don't know for sure, but it's more than enough.

And I still think that Nero definitely blocked the scum kill. Defensively. Calc was killed yesterday because he was incredibly obvtown and was never going to get lynched ever, not for any other reason. Of everyone still alive, Insurmountable seems to me to be the closest to fitting that description. Unfortunately though, that doesn't help determine who tried to kill him.

Full playerlist analysis:
T S O - The only reason at all I think he's town is because of mechanics, which also requires my POV to completely trust. I highly doubt he's scum.
Nero Cain - I really think he's town. I can't pinpoint why, but the way he's been using his JK just seems incredibly town to me.
Sakura Hana - She's the most likely adult to be scum at the moment FMPOV, but I still doubt it due to her play so far.
beastcharizard - Town due to Mechanics.
Insurmountable/zMuffinMan - Town due to parents/play.
Titus - Scum if PA flips scum and the game isn't over.
penguin_alien - Still the only person remaining. I highly doubt that both Bulba and Maestro were town, so that follows that she is probably scum. I really think that lynching her will end the game, and if not then at the very least we get confirmation of Bulba's role. And the claim change seems far more like a last minute attempt to still appear useful than an actual town gambit. If she was actually three shot, then she would have used her mortician on either Toasty or GCBC by now instead of held off on using them with no specific use in mind.

VOTE: penguin_alien

[KingdomAces]

Titus, Saki was the SK.

If anyone actually thinks Insurmountable is scum, then we've already lost. I would be incredibly surprised if he wasn't the scum's NK target last night, so why is he even being brought up as a possible lynch ever? Muffin I might consider if lynching PA doesn't end the game, but definitely not Insurmountable.

PA, assuming you're telling the truth, why would you even be considered as a NK above a doctor, a tracker, a JK, and a vig? Also, my question isn't why didn't you mortician GCBC yesterday. I agree that would have been pointless. My question is why didn't you mortician him N3? After all of the speculation about it D3, you thought that there would be three better times for you to use your role? In addition to that, Bulba claimed to have tracked Toasty N3, so clearly your family thought that getting information there was important. I still maintain that there was literally no other result that townBulba could have gotten in that instance, so why waste his ability when using yours would actually give closure to the incident?

[KingdomAces]

Because his slot has been nothing but obvtown all game. If you disagree, there's really not all that much I can say about it, but I cannot see him being scum at all.

[KingdomAces]

Titus, what are you talking about? Beast said that he caught ns. Saki was the SK, where ns was mafia.

[KingdomAces]

Nero, I'm the child in my family. Also, there is an evil twin, which Balti already flipped as. I doubt we are getting anywhere else just through flavor.

Yeah Insurmountable has been flaky, but I think it's more important to judge based on what they did do. Also, there's the fact that Chesskid was completely obvtown and Rift was definitely killed by Mafia, which means that Insur/Muffin are near conf-town if you believe that child alignments are dependent on parent alignments.

About PA, even if you believe 100% that Bulba was town, there's still Maestro. I think that the chance that both of them were town is exceedingly minimal based on my reads on everyone remaining in the game. I wanted PA dead due to PoE far before her claim change. All that is is more evidence.

[KingdomAces]

No, you're both town. PA's the scum here. We need to stop wasting lynches already.

[KingdomAces]

I actually wouldn't mind that. Even though I'm 90% sure that TSO is town, I doubt that one more mislynch and NK is going to end the game, so we might as well make sure all of our loose ends are covered in the event that PA is somehow town.

[KingdomAces]

Hi. Basically we're at the solving the puzzle phase of the game, and while technically no one is clear, PA, Nero, and TSO/myself are the only possible people that really have a chance at being scum.

And Beast, you shouldn't be killing anyone tonight.

[KingdomAces]

Hi. Basically we're at the solving the puzzle phase of the game, and while technically no one is clear, PA, Nero, and TSO/myself are the only possible people that really have a chance at being scum.

explain

Full playerlist analysis:
T S O - The only reason at all I think he's town is because of mechanics, which also requires my POV to completely trust. I highly doubt he's scum.
Nero Cain - I really think he's town. I can't pinpoint why, but the way he's been using his JK just seems incredibly town to me.
Sakura Hana - She's the most likely adult to be scum at the moment FMPOV, but I still doubt it due to her play so far.
beastcharizard - Town due to Mechanics.
Insurmountable/zMuffinMan - Town due to parents/play.
Titus - Scum if PA flips scum and the game isn't over.
penguin_alien - Still the only person remaining. I highly doubt that both Bulba and Maestro were town, so that follows that she is probably scum. I really think that lynching her will end the game, and if not then at the very least we get confirmation of Bulba's role. And the claim change seems far more like a last minute attempt to still appear useful than an actual town gambit. If she was actually three shot, then she would have used her mortician on either Toasty or GCBC by now instead of held off on using them with no specific use in mind.

Yes, I know there's a discrepancy on who of Sakura/Nero I find next most likely to be scum after PA. That's because of wandering gut, and the fact that I think that they are both town regardless.

[KingdomAces]

Yeah. How many times did I say that I thought the game would just end if we lynched PA? Sorry I couldn't come up with an actual case, but seriously everyone else was pretty much either clear or so incredibly obvtown that it wasn't even worth considering lynching them.

Bulba completely deserved all the heat he got. The fact that he was the second most likely person to be scum even after he caught Bulba is really saying something, though even such it was a complete to have ever vigged him.

Also, I don't think I agreed with a single thing TSO said this entire game. That's all I'm going to say on that subject here. On that note, Personal QT if you want to see me ranting about how scummy my family/Bulba was.

I'm kind of disappointed that I was practically never mentioned in the Dead QT. The main question I have coming out of this, is what more could I have done? It's not my style to continually shout things over and over again to make sure that my voice was heard, but I don't think a single person payed any attention to me the entire game, despite the fact that I was able to PoE the scum when there was still 14 players remaining. Granted, by that point I knew that we were going to win no matter how many times we mislynched, so I continually advocated the death of people who I had townreads on just because there was still a chance of them being scum.

Actually looking back I just stopped caring though most of the endgame. Just even more evidence that I should never play another large again, ever.

And I may have just spent two hours composing this post, so if it's completely disjointed, that's why.

[KingdomAces]

Yeah you were more vocal, but that was only after Bulba was dead. Even then, just look at the votecounts. I voted PA before you did even though I am usually incredibly reluctant to vote people. This whole time I actually thought that PAscum was the one thing I actually managed to get through to you about, but apparently it turns out you never even read a single post I made.

[KingdomAces]

TSO.

It was obvious that there was only 1 or 2 scum left, and that they had literally nowhere to hide from us three. That doesn't mean that we were conftown to anyone else. Everything that you were trying to do, like shooting Bulba/Nero when the entire town was calling for Nati's death and Bulba claimed he would track Nero that night, would have only lead you one place. The noose. I likely wouldn't be far behind you no matter what I did. That could have actually caused us to lose, which otherwise would be physically impossible.

I don't remember any other specific examples for the moment, but at the very least on three separate occasions I couldn't stop myself from making a post in my personal QT about how angry I was at you. That's not even including the one actual content post I made there late in the game, which I feel like quoting part of here. This was posted before the PV lynch went through.

I actually have a townread on PV right now, but I just don't see any other lynches being helpful at the moment. I was going to suggest killing PA during the night, because that frees us up to lynch Bulba tomorrow after he gets one more result. I can't suggest lynching PA now, because then I wouldn't have reasonable grounds to hold back TSO from yelling nonsense in the QT all night, even if Beast is smart enough not to listen to it. Also because as long as we don't make it clear that we want Bulba lynched tomorrow, there's still a chance scum will kill him if he's actually town.

About 9136, I might as well say this: I actually kind of wanted to lynch you just for the satisfaction of it, even though I was fairly sure you were town. (Which based on what the actual scumbaby mechanic was, it was actually a faulty assumption on my part.) Either way, I wouldn't have allowed that unless PA agreed to get quicklynched the next day immediately after posting her result, which would still have ended in a town win, which was all I cared about.

I don't know. I'm probably the one in the wrong here, but even if I ever do get back to playing mafia, I'm never playing with you again.

[KingdomAces]

Without the vig of you, this game could have gone on for far longer than it did.

Thank you TSO. You proved my entire point against you by saying this. This statement is completely and totally incorrect. If Bulba wasn't vigged, PA would have been. The game would have been over that night instead of going on for another whole day.

I just saw that post for the first time yesterday when I was doublechecking something, and it made me so angry that you literally don't understand anything that I was trying to say that I just need to overturn my stance on just being done with this topic and letting it go.

One more thing, me saying "I'm probably the one in the wrong" was just an extension of courtesy. I actually don't regret anything that I said or did, I just wanted you to at least consider things without just shoving me aside as being antagonistic. I am completely serious about everything, and I always have been.