Once Upon A Winter Night - [Game Over]

[ooba]

Scum need mislynches to win. If you're going to just push buddies and call town-town, you're going to lose the game. Esp. with what looks like a town cop in the setup.

I'm not letting town throw this game from what looks to be like a good position. You are NOT lynching me.

Vote: Konowa

Come out and play.

[beastcharizard]

Why the hell would we ever want to call town people town or to push the scums buddies? That might actually win us the game!

VOTE: ooba

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 5.1

ooba [2] - Kovara, beastcharizard
Konowa [1] - ooba

Not Voting [5]

- Katsuki, Konowa, Tammy, Nobody Special, notscience

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch

.

Deadline is January 26, 2015, at 11:00 AM PST.
Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2015-01-26 13:00:00)

[ooba]

Why the hell would we ever want to call town people town or to push the scums buddies? That might actually win us the game!

VOTE: ooba

Read the sentence in context.

"Scum need mislynches to win. If you're going to just push buddies and call town-town, you're going to lose the game. Esp. with what looks like a town cop in the setup." = "Scum need mislynches to win. If scum is going to just push buddies and call town-town, they're going to lose the game. Esp. with what looks like a town cop in the setup."

[Katsuki]

I just want to state that I don't think BC has placed a single scumvote thus far this game so I'm somewhat inclined to vote for whoever he doesn't vote for. = =b

[Konowa]

VOTE: ooba

This is where we are voting today.

Why aren't we lynching me Today?

[Tammy]

I don't really get the scum read on ooba.

I'm not sure why kovara ignored notty' roleblock.

If there's not a doctor, then that's a real thing that needs to be addressed, and I'm having a hard time thinking there's a hidden doctor.

We had nobody special watching kovara, so I would have at least expected an off kill, probably on notty. If anybody else has any reasoning for a missing nightkill, then I'm all ears. If konowa is innocent, and there are no other reasons for a missing nightkill, then someone forgot to send in a kill.

[beastcharizard]

VOTE: ooba

This is where we are voting today.

Why aren't we lynching me Today?

This is like the scummiest post in the history of ever. Also makes me think you are protecting ooba.

[Konowa]

Why are you assuming four Scum and not three?
Why are you ignoring roleblock/nokill? Explanation for no kill otherwise.

[beastcharizard]

1. Cool, you are scum. Thanks for telling us all.
2. I am not going to look for 1 when there could be two. I would rather look for 2 when there could be one. Covering all my bases and being prepared.
3. This "why aren't we lynching me" stuff is not remotely town at all.
4. Who said I was ignoring anything? We have you confirmed as scum so why not try to find your potential partner? We aren't in MYLO or LYLO or anything of the sort to my knowledge so even if for some reason we got after ooba and lynch them we still have you tomorrow for a guaranteed scum lynch.
5. I am awesome!

[ooba]

4. Who said I was ignoring anything? We have you confirmed as scum so why not try to find your potential partner? We aren't in MYLO or LYLO or anything of the sort to my knowledge so even if for some reason we got after ooba and lynch them we still have you tomorrow for a guaranteed scum lynch.

This is the type of logic that loses games for town.

[Konowa]

Dumb or Scum?

[Tammy]

If konowa comes back town then either scum no killed on purpose (but what would be the point) or forgot (at which point I would not consider nobody special confirmed town no matter what fake god said in a game.

[ooba]

Ok. Since we've all claimed and there have been no counterclaims - there are three possibilities to the N4 no kill:
a) notscience is lying about the RB and is scum
b) notscience is not lying about the RB but scum no-killed yesterday night
c) notscience is not lying about the RB and Konowa is scum

Scenario 'a':

Not really possible. In the absence of other claims, we need to analyse why we have no kills on three nights. [N2,N3,N4]
- N2 is most probably scum hitting 'Father Gregory'. PR sounding-name so I can see this.
- N3 is only explained by not science doc'ing Kovara. Unless not science-scum decided to not kill two nights in a row to frame Konowa (and no real benefits here since it just adds pressure on his 'innocent-confirmed' slot) - its as ridiculous as it sounds.

Also not that is required but N3 no kill and not science claim confirms Kovara.

Scenario 'b':

With a town cop, scum really have no choice but to kill. NS is a good kill. If NS is scum, not science would have been a good kill.

Hence,

Scenario 'c' is true

.

Kovara's strategy of hunting among the un-confirmed is fine - but we need to start with caught scum first.

Also - start posting - every single day we get to deadline and choose. Just vote Konowa - it's not rocket science.

[ooba]

If konowa comes back town then either scum no killed on purpose (but what would be the point) or forgot (at which point I would not consider nobody special confirmed town no matter what fake god said in a game.

Right there is the possibility that scum 'forgot' last night. (part of scenario 'b'). But I think even NS scum would have submitted that kill. They are down on the ropes.

[Nobody Special]

VOTE: Konowa

[Konowa]

Ok. Since we've all claimed and there have been no counterclaims - there are three possibilities to the N4 no kill:
a) notscience is lying about the RB and is scum
b) notscience is not lying about the RB but scum no-killed yesterday night
c) notscience is not lying about the RB and Konowa is scum

Scenario 'a':

Not really possible. In the absence of other claims, we need to analyse why we have no kills on three nights. [N2,N3,N4]
- N2 is most probably scum hitting 'Father Gregory'. PR sounding-name so I can see this.
- N3 is only explained by not science doc'ing Kovara. Unless not science-scum decided to not kill two nights in a row to frame Konowa (and no real benefits here since it just adds pressure on his 'innocent-confirmed' slot) - its as ridiculous as it sounds.

Also not that is required but N3 no kill and not science claim confirms Kovara.

Scenario 'b':

With a town cop, scum really have no choice but to kill. NS is a good kill. If NS is scum, not science would have been a good kill.

Hence,

Scenario 'c' is true

.

Kovara's strategy of hunting among the un-confirmed is fine - but we need to start with caught scum first.

Also - start posting - every single day we get to deadline and choose. Just vote Konowa - it's not rocket science.

This all makes sense except for that I'm not Scum. I agree that I should probably be lynched Today. Setup seems -too- Townsided as is so I'm wondering if Godfather/Traitor+1?

[beastcharizard]

Konowa, if you are town you are supposed to fight your lynch!

[ooba]

This all makes sense except for that I'm not Scum. I agree that I should probably be lynched Today. Setup seems -too- Townsided as is so I'm wondering if Godfather/Traitor+1?

Hmm. NKing a Traitor could also be a no-kill night.

e) If N1 was when traitor was recruited, then not science was responsible for N2,N3 no kills. Hence Kovara town and you're scum.
f) If N2 was when traitor was recruited, then not science was responsible for N3 no kill. Hence you're scum but we cannot be sure of Kovara town.
g) If N3 was when traitor was recruited, then not science was responsible for N2 no kill. Hence Kovara town. You are not scum - but then the strategy is to lynch amongst unconfirmeds {You, Me, Tammy, Katsuki}. Given the RB claim, it's best to start with you.

The above analysis is not as strong since

scum could have just not NKed N4 to keep player count even

.

h) If the above part is true, the only scum pairing that could be confident enough to no kill to keep it even would be one with Kovara. So let's consider a hypothetical pairing and their strategy {Tammy, Kovara}
N2: Scum kill Father Gregory - no kill
N3: Scum kill Traitor Tammy - Tammy joins {HoneyBee,Kovara} - no kill
N4: No Kill on purpose - {6 town - 2 scum} Unconfirmed: {Katsuki, Konowa, Tammy, ooba, beast}
D5: Confirm beast - Lynch ooba - {5 town - 2 scum} Unconfirmed: {Katsuki, Konowa, Tammy}
N5: Kill NS - {4 town - 2 scum}
D6: Confirm Katuski or Konowa. The other would be lynched over Tammy. {3 town - 2 scum}
N6: Nightkill for the win

This analysis is equally applicable if you replace Tammy's name with beast or Katsuki as traitor.

Granted this also explains the need for a no-kill on N4 since if they killed NS on N4, people would ask "Why wasn't Kovara killed on N5?" on D6. Also would explain Kovara's nonsensical push on me over you today - since it would be easier to mislynch you tomorrow.

---

If you flip town, then Kovara is scum.

But you flipping town requires
- assumption of a traitor AND
- assumption of a no-kill strategy by scum AND
- going against my reads for setup reasons

I'm just going to go with a great RB from not science on scum. Will reevaluate if your flip proves otherwise - but do not think it is the case.

[Tammy]

Yeah, I can't see me backing an ooba lynch.

I don't get beast's comment to konowa. There's a rb on a night when there was no kill and no other foreseeable reason for that no kill, and the rb was made by someone cleared by the cop. Sure, we can posit a recruited traitor or a no kill, but those are things we can't know.

If konowa comes back scum, then notty is probably town who role blocked scum and the cop clear is natural. If konowa comes back town then we need to reassess our understanding of the setup, roles and clears because something off is definitely in play then...or someone forgot.

One thing that bothers me is that notty claimed to role block konowa, but didn't vote him or do anything else really.

We have 8 people right now and chances are we have at maximum two left, and potentially one in the case of godfather, good fake claims etc. Though the nokilling thing would just be weird.

Konowa is pretty much the smartest choice just because of the rb claim.

I was going to say that I wanted to wait to make sure nobody special watched kovara tonight, but I think I've changed my mind on that. I actually don't care who he chooses to watch tonight. Still gonna wait to vote until we make sure, but I think it's the most pragmatic choice

even though I've been reading konowa as town and don't want to be wrong

[beastcharizard]

So you think town should just roll over and die in this situation?

[Tammy]

So you think town should just roll over and die in this situation?

Yep.

Anyone who has ever played with me can tell you that I absolutely hate being mislynched and fight against suspicion/lynch like hell. But, if someone had role related reasons to think I was scum, and I couldn't explain it away, such as in this situation, I'd totally accept and believe in my lynch if it would help town understand what was going on.

(Though I think I'd probably be a bit proactive in trying to give my thoughts and hope that people would take them into consideration upon my flip.)

((I also don't just buy that konowa is definitely town here and town rolling over because i followed the end of the last fake god game where he was scum lynched, the final scum lynched, which ended the game, and after he was lynched he was still proclaiming to be town and what they should do. That's some dedication right thar.)

[Konowa]

Eh, probably because ooba was in my to lynch list leading up to Today, but Mara and beast's weird push on him considering things is making me back off of that.
I have you solidly as Town.
I'm sticking with my read on kats as disinterested Town over lurker Scum.
notsci's Night actions make him Town.
Leaves {NS, Mara, beast}.

[ooba]

About half the player list haven't posted over 4 days. This is just sad.

[beastcharizard]

Eh, probably because ooba was in my to lynch list leading up to Today, but Mara and beast's weird push on him considering things is making me back off of that.
I have you solidly as Town.
I'm sticking with my read on kats as disinterested Town over lurker Scum.
notsci's Night actions make him Town.
Leaves {NS, Mara, beast}.

You realize I am cop cleared right?