UK Pol - #independenceday

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Post Post #537 (isolation #0) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 6:45 am

Post by Xtoxm »

idk if its actually going to pass, its needs 2/3s of mps. all opposition parties except labour oppose it, and plenty of individual labour mps oppose it even if corbyn decides to support it.
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Post Post #540 (isolation #1) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 9:20 am

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"Labour appears poised to block Boris Johnson’s offer of a pre-Christmas general election on 12 December by telling MPs to abstain in Monday’s vote.

The party has previously said that it would back an early election when a no-deal Brexit scenario could be firmly ruled out, and has twice rejected attempts by Johnson to go to the polls before 2022."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... l-election
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Post Post #543 (isolation #2) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:01 pm

Post by Xtoxm »

Unlikely Johnson can afford to rule out no deal ahead of a GE, for political reasons, regardless of what he wants. I'm assuming Corbyn will demand legislation preventing no deal, so Johnson can't just lie about it.
In post 542, zoraster wrote:And if Europe isn't convinced that Labour is going to allow a GE until 2022, why would it agree to an extension at all? Just allow a no-deal brexit or Johnson's deal to go through and finally be done with this.
Because the EU don't want brexit at all. They would rather give continual extensions or reverse entirely. They aren't the ones who voted for this.

“We should be ready for every scenario, but one thing must be clear, as I said to Prime Minister Johnson on Saturday, a no-deal Brexit will never be our decision,”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-d ... -k7wkqn999
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Post Post #545 (isolation #3) » Thu Oct 24, 2019 12:15 pm

Post by Xtoxm »

In post 544, SleepyKrew wrote:
In post 542, zoraster wrote:Labour might reject it even so because they know they're going to lose in the GE.
how in the world is this the situation
kinda weird situation but currently polls project a majority for johnson, meanwhile currently there are enough anti-brexit (or at least anti-no deal) mps that its impossible for johnson to get anything through without labours support. and for many mps the outcome of brexit is more important than who's ruling. so most of the opposition parties don't want a GE until either a "soft" deal has been passed, or a 2nd referendum with a chance to remain has been called, etc. these things are on the look of it less likely to happen if theres a GE rn.

johnson is effectively a ruling minority atm and almost every piece of legislation he tries to put forward is losing.
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Post Post #555 (isolation #4) » Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:28 am

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well its happening
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Post Post #569 (isolation #5) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:41 am

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i agree it has little to no impact
i think out of term is theoretically better for labour since university constituencies are places the tories tend to do badly
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Post Post #570 (isolation #6) » Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:43 am

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dont think itll be a tory landslide
tactical voting between lab/ld will probs lead to like another hung parliament and more nothing happening
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Post Post #576 (isolation #7) » Wed Nov 20, 2019 12:16 am

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felt corbyn edged the debate, dont expect much effect on the polls tho, maybe a bump for both of them away from smaller parties
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Post Post #583 (isolation #8) » Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:29 pm

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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... g-suggests
one of the polls puts labour 6 points behind cons which would almost certainly be enough

hey zor
you underestimated corbyn
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Post Post #591 (isolation #9) » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:25 pm

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My understanding is that the SNP are the primary challenger in all the tory held scottish seats.
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Post Post #592 (isolation #10) » Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:42 pm

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i think sturgeon would support a labour government without requiring another indyref, fwiw. its polling poorly atm and the SNP key message this campaign has been stopping the tories. corbyn also is against it. tho it remains a long term goal of the snp.
LDs on the other hand insist they wont back labour under corbyn.
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Post Post #594 (isolation #11) » Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:07 pm

Post by Xtoxm »

In post 593, zoraster wrote:Still, this is all academic.
i'll avatar bet u that it hangs
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Post Post #598 (isolation #12) » Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:03 am

Post by Xtoxm »

Turnout is reported to be very high. Particularly in London. Probably benefits Labour.

Anecdotally, my polling station was empty when I went.
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Post Post #607 (isolation #13) » Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:49 am

Post by Xtoxm »

In post 601, zoraster wrote:
In post 594, Xtoxm wrote:
In post 593, zoraster wrote:Still, this is all academic.
i'll avatar bet u that it hangs
Eh Sure. 2 weeks, avatar set to something not-inappropriate. If the Tories don't capture at least a majority of the held seats (so not including Sinn Fein, speaker, etc.), I get to set yours. If they don't, you get to set mine.

Feel like this is win, win for me.

Sound good?
Deal
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Post Post #612 (isolation #14) » Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:50 am

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In post 610, Davsto wrote:i mean my constituency's fucked, we've literally had the same (Conservative) MP since we were refounded in 1997 and in 2017 he had a 35% majority over second place (Labour), but hell I voted anyway
mines equally useless, i live in one of the safest labour seats in the country
still, its a fun experience that we dont get to do often
In post 611, chamber wrote:Where is the best spot to watch live coverage?
bbc

im hyped for this election coverage
i hope the exit poll isnt like a +40 cons majority, thatll be such a downer
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Post Post #615 (isolation #15) » Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:54 am

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yeah, theres laws against coverage until polls close in just over an hour
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Post Post #625 (isolation #16) » Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:55 am

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Post Post #628 (isolation #17) » Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:01 am

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oh for fucks sake
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Post Post #635 (isolation #18) » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:30 pm

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yeah ofc corbyns gone now
some of these labour heartlands that have/are going to flip probably arent coming back. labour will need to find a new map to victory in future
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Post Post #640 (isolation #19) » Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:31 pm

Post by Xtoxm »

not even a holly wreath on it
brutal
(expired on 2019-12-26 23:32:10)
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Post Post #642 (isolation #20) » Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:47 pm

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swinson decapitated by snp
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Post Post #651 (isolation #21) » Wed Dec 25, 2019 7:12 am

Post by Xtoxm »

In post 640, Xtoxm wrote:not even a holly wreath on it
brutal
(expired on 2019-12-27 23:32:10)
ok i did some really bad math and made a mental note that xmas day was ok to change
it was only like 5mins but i'm adding a day to the timer to compensate
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