Brexit

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Post Post #300 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 4:16 pm

Post by Majiffy »

Except Australia, which is currently freezing instead.
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Post Post #301 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:34 pm

Post by Claus »

In post 299, Equinox wrote:
In post 291, Majiffy wrote:I am refraining from gloating as much as possible until after November.
On the bright side, if we do get a President Trump, all of us can watch the (Western) world burn together.
You can remove those parenthesis, things are so shitty in Japan that even the emperor wants out now.
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Post Post #302 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:46 pm

Post by mykonian »

In post 298, Sudo_Nym wrote:I was listening to Dan Carlin, and he made the interesting point that things like this were the reason why the American system doesn't have referendums. You get all sorts of weird things when you make decisions based on a poll of a bunch of non-experts who don't understand the full implications of the decisions they're being asked to make.
On the other hand, it's good to stay in touch with the people when it comes to real change, where politics might be entrenched.

Say, imaginary world where Clinton becomes president and really wants to abolish the right to carry guns. This is not going to work out, as you know.

However, suppose she'd bypass the house and ask the people what they want, there's a possibility that a conclusive answer might actually get her somewhere. Also not likely, but it's a reason why a referendum might be a healthy option, making sure politics and the real world don't diverge too much.
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Post Post #303 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 8:13 pm

Post by Drench »

In post 298, Sudo_Nym wrote:I was listening to Dan Carlin, and he made the interesting point that things like this were the reason why the American system doesn't have referendums. You get all sorts of weird things when you make decisions based on a poll of a bunch of non-experts who don't understand the full implications of the decisions they're being asked to make.
referendums really should be about constitutional change and that's it
of course the argument is still alive as to whether brexit falls under that (i think it does, personally)
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Post Post #304 (ISO) » Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:02 pm

Post by Davsto »

I mean Brexit wasn't something that a referendum
had
to be made of

Cameron just decided that (as part of his policy if the Tories won) he'd hold a referendum on it (to reduce people voting for UKIP as their policy was just to leave the EU, as Cameron was worried of a potential pseudo-Brexit vote as the votes split between UKIP and Tory in the general election depending on which people wanted to exit the EU).

Parliament could have easily just made a decision independently

(Disclaimer: not an expert so something is probably wrong here, but this is along the right lines)
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Post Post #305 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:53 am

Post by Not_Mafia »

In post 297, Not_Mafia wrote:But hey maybe we'll get a health secretary that doesn't want to dismantle the NHS
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Post Post #306 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2016 1:48 am

Post by mykonian »

In post 304, Davsto wrote:I mean Brexit wasn't something that a referendum
had
to be made of

Cameron just decided that (as part of his policy if the Tories won) he'd hold a referendum on it (to reduce people voting for UKIP as their policy was just to leave the EU, as Cameron was worried of a potential pseudo-Brexit vote as the votes split between UKIP and Tory in the general election depending on which people wanted to exit the EU).

Parliament could have easily just made a decision independently

(Disclaimer: not an expert so something is probably wrong here, but this is along the right lines)
Not really though. Parliament wanted to stay. They still do. The people didn't.

Now you could argue who's right and who's more qualified to make that decision, but point remains that parliament is supposed to represent the people. It's not a good state to be in where the two don't agree. Regardless of how you think about the result, the concept of a referendum worked here, I think.
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Post Post #307 (ISO) » Thu Jul 14, 2016 10:39 am

Post by chamber »

People don't know what they want. Or rather, they know the end results that they want but not the way to get them. Neither side of the British populace is well versed in international trade agreements. They wanted more jobs and perceived foreigners taking them as the cause, but from what I've read, it likely wasn't a net drain on jobs. And that's before considering other economic benefits of being in the EU.
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Post Post #308 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 2:48 am

Post by zoraster »

Image

He can't even win
principled
, for gosh sake.
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Post Post #309 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 2:51 am

Post by zoraster »

He doesn't even win 18-24, y'all!



And I mean.... this is shocking:

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Post Post #310 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 2:58 am

Post by Davsto »

that's more of a demonstration of the idiocy of voters than the competency of Corbyn if you ask me
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Post Post #311 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:01 am

Post by zoraster »

Forgive me for pointing out the obvious, but you live in a representative democracy where the voters, you know, vote. So idiots or not, if you can't win them, your "brilliancy" will be relegated to (at most) opposition.
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Post Post #312 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:21 am

Post by Nexus »

I mean, Corbyn is slagged off by the media on a daily basis, so is it any wonder that people can't get behind him?
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Post Post #313 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:24 am

Post by zoraster »

I feel like I can make a multitude of concessions that I don't really believe (e.g. "it's the media's fault!") and the point remains: selecting Corbyn as your party's leader is the perfect way to ensure electoral irrelevancy for the the near to medium future.
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Post Post #314 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:30 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

Labour were irrelevant anyway. They were basically became a shit version of the Tory Party.
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Post Post #315 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:31 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

Also, that ignores the fact that you don't vote for a Prime Minister, you vote for a local representative.
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Post Post #316 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:32 am

Post by zoraster »

In post 314, Randomnamechange wrote:Labour were irrelevant anyway. They were basically became a shit version of the Tory Party.

Unless you're a Tory, that's either an ignorant statement or one
entirely
designed to justify a politically unsuccessful policy shift.
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Post Post #317 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:34 am

Post by zoraster »

In post 315, Randomnamechange wrote:Also, that ignores the fact that you don't vote for a Prime Minister, you vote for a local representative.
Outside of the
technical
point that yes you vote for a local representative, if you vote this way in practice you are a fool. A backbencher's power is almost entirely wrapped up in their ability to combine to create a Government.
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Post Post #318 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:38 am

Post by Davsto »

No you vote for a local representative you agree with because they will vote in the way most applicable to you and try to push things you agree with into the limelight

A backbencher doesn't just sit on their arse and do nothing except be part of a party, they actually
do shit
. If people voted purely to get a majority for the party then no-one would have voted any SNP in because there aren't enough SNP candidates in different constituencies to get a majority.
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Post Post #319 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:55 am

Post by Davsto »

In post 316, zoraster wrote:
In post 314, Randomnamechange wrote:Labour were irrelevant anyway. They were basically became a shit version of the Tory Party.

Unless you're a Tory, that's either an ignorant statement or one
entirely
designed to justify a politically unsuccessful policy shift.
Nope, it's totally accurate. People are pissed that Jeremy Corbyn is an actually left-wing leader of a supposedly left-wing party, rather than just a centre leader. By distinguishing himself, he's dared to make it controversial.

Great, he couldn't even win 18-24. That is, 18-24 of all voters of all parties. How is this relevant? Who gives a damn what someone who is destined to vote Tory or UKIP anyway thinks?

Really, Conservative, UKIP and Lib Dem voters think May would make a better PM than Corbyn? I could have told you that myself, it's plain damn logic.

He divides voters. So what? FDR was constantly criticised by the media and big company owners yet he won by a landslide. Good politicians are inevitably going to have haters, and ones such as Corbyn which have more "controversial" policies are going to have even more. That doesn't mean he should step down. Now, I think he should step down because him being leader is resulting in complaints in his party which is putting Labour in absolute shambles during an already politically turbulent time, but not because some voters don't like him.
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Post Post #320 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:57 am

Post by zoraster »

They didn't vote for SNP because of their local MP though. They did it because what you can accomplish with a group of people can send a message. Best case, SNP can form a coalition government and force a referendum or other devolution and potentially form part of the Government.

Regardless, we're talking about Labour, a party that (probably?) wants to actually be in charge. Effect change by being in Government. If Labour wants to be a protest party or simply a party that represents a fraction of the country without a real shot of winning, then the path that's being traveled upon is fine. But if I'm a Labour supporter, I'd rather be able to counteract the Tories.

As for "doing shit," sure. I'm not saying MPs do nothing -- they certainly provide constituency services. But I think it's silly to believe in the salience for most voters of these things. Simply put: if the country does not want your leader to be PM, having a collection of the very best local MPs isn't going to be particularly helpful in elevating your leader to PM.
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Post Post #321 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:59 am

Post by zoraster »

In post 319, Davsto wrote:
In post 316, zoraster wrote:
In post 314, Randomnamechange wrote:Labour were irrelevant anyway. They were basically became a shit version of the Tory Party.

Unless you're a Tory, that's either an ignorant statement or one
entirely
designed to justify a politically unsuccessful policy shift.
Nope, it's totally accurate. People are pissed that Jeremy Corbyn is an actually left-wing leader of a supposedly left-wing party, rather than just a centre leader. By distinguishing himself, he's dared to make it controversial.

Great, he couldn't even win 18-24. That is, 18-24 of all voters of all parties. How is this relevant? Who gives a damn what someone who is destined to vote Tory or UKIP anyway thinks?

Really, Conservative, UKIP and Lib Dem voters think May would make a better PM than Corbyn? I could have told you that myself, it's plain damn logic.

He divides voters. So what? FDR was constantly criticised by the media and big company owners yet he won by a landslide. Good politicians are inevitably going to have haters, and ones such as Corbyn which have more "controversial" policies are going to have even more. That doesn't mean he should step down. Now, I think he should step down because him being leader is resulting in complaints in his party which is putting Labour in absolute shambles during an already politically turbulent time, but not because some voters don't like him.
I mean, if your point is "I don't give a shit about winning elections" then okay. Fine. My point is that he's not going to be elected, so although I'd want to believe most people
care
about winning and the Tories not being in power, if you don't then we don't have a quibble on this point.
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Post Post #322 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:00 am

Post by Davsto »

That chart is still a stupid reason. You know what would happen if a new, non-Corbyn leader stepped in? A good part of that 45% who think Corbyn would make a good leader would probably dislike the new leader. That's just how it works.
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Post Post #323 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:02 am

Post by Davsto »

In post 321, zoraster wrote:
In post 319, Davsto wrote:
In post 316, zoraster wrote:
In post 314, Randomnamechange wrote:Labour were irrelevant anyway. They were basically became a shit version of the Tory Party.

Unless you're a Tory, that's either an ignorant statement or one
entirely
designed to justify a politically unsuccessful policy shift.
Nope, it's totally accurate. People are pissed that Jeremy Corbyn is an actually left-wing leader of a supposedly left-wing party, rather than just a centre leader. By distinguishing himself, he's dared to make it controversial.

Great, he couldn't even win 18-24. That is, 18-24 of all voters of all parties. How is this relevant? Who gives a damn what someone who is destined to vote Tory or UKIP anyway thinks?

Really, Conservative, UKIP and Lib Dem voters think May would make a better PM than Corbyn? I could have told you that myself, it's plain damn logic.

He divides voters. So what? FDR was constantly criticised by the media and big company owners yet he won by a landslide. Good politicians are inevitably going to have haters, and ones such as Corbyn which have more "controversial" policies are going to have even more. That doesn't mean he should step down. Now, I think he should step down because him being leader is resulting in complaints in his party which is putting Labour in absolute shambles during an already politically turbulent time, but not because some voters don't like him.
I mean, if your point is "I don't give a shit about winning elections" then okay. Fine. My point is that he's not going to be elected, so although I'd want to believe most people
care
about winning and the Tories not being in power, if you don't then we don't have a quibble on this point.
I mean... did you even bloody read my post? That post wasn't even close to the point you're saying I'm trying to make.
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Post Post #324 (ISO) » Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:08 am

Post by zoraster »

Sure, some people will dislike the new leader. Enough to vote for a different party in a general election? Some, probably. But probably not that many, and the gains from selecting a better leader can easily offset that.
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