Plotting The Caper

[Cheery Dog]

Well this games over.

I'm assuming the cop that claimed henchman will reveal and choose someone now.

[Telo]

I'm assuming

the

cop that claimed henchman will reveal and choose someone now.

You don't assuming that both cops claimed henchman? Why?

[Cheery Dog]

I'm assuming

the

cop that claimed henchman will reveal and choose someone now.

You don't assuming that both cops claimed henchman? Why?

Because I believe I know who both of the cops are.

[RedCoyote]

Mitillos, why would we want the Mercenary to win? It costs the family more for a hired gun.

I think we should play it safe and go for the highest score possible.

[Mitillos]

*shrugs*

[RedCoyote]

I want more excuses to use the underused smilies.

By the way, you're a

[Mastermind of Sin]

Who hasn't claimed yet?

[Aronis]

So I should claim?

My specialty is making things go boom. I'm an OK driver too.

[RedCoyote]

Blackberry, what's the next step in your master plan?

[Telo]

This game seemed like it would be fun but if you're a henchman there really isn't anything to do.

I'm not going to lobby to get picked because my top numbers are only 3's. And trying to figure out who the cops are won't do any good because we can't oust them.

They can oust themselves but one (maybe both) of them claimed henchman so they're not likely to get picked anyway.

[Blackberry]

Short & Simple Story:

We are guaranteed to win by the Mob Boss's pick.

Me: 5 Explosives; 3 Safecracking, 1 Driving

MOB BOSS:

Just pick Mitillos (+5), one of me/Aronis (+5), and anyone (+?) (it literally doesn't matter who) and we win

EVERYONE:

At this time I suggest none of the non-Specialists say anything more. If you're town, we're going to win this unless you say anything to give away or narrow down the Mob Boss. So I propose we all just do absolutely nothing.

Longer Story:

I technically was wrong about what I thought was a guaranteed 50% or higher, as I made a default assumption that there was a specialist in each category. However, it doesn't matter, because I believe the Cops and Merc all made a terrible decision not to claim Specialist. By not claiming specialist they just practically guaranteed their loss (Cops can technically still win if they correct identify the mob boss).

I'll go into further detail of my initial thoughts of the game as to how I assumed it would play out:

I assumed: Cops & Merc would claim Specialist, and that Mob Boss would too (remember how I mentioned I first though Mob Boss should pick Specialist? I remember why, the Mob Boss should claim the role that the majority picks, so he in fact did us a good by not claiming Specialist in this particular game). But when Mob Boss makes his decision there'd be only 6 Specialist claims.

To Win: There is literally only two smart choices for the Mob Boss.

Scenario 1 (best option): Pick 3 specialists, even if 1 specialist is a Cop/Merc, we still win because the points will be above 10, the only way to lose in this scenario would be if 2/3 picks were incorrect. So if there were 6 specialist claims it's 50/50 that we win, and this is where I could lead into scenario 2 and entice the Merc to claim and that he'd be picked.

Scenario 2: Pick 1 specialist (+5), 1 Uncounterclaimed Henchman (+3), and either the other Henchman (+3) or the Merc (+2). This would give us 10 and a win. The only thing here is selecting the correct Specialist. So if 6 specialists had claimed and the Merc had come to our side and outed himself, we then had a 3/5 chance of picking the correct Specialists (i.e., bumping us up to a 60% chance of winning).

However, there is a MAJOR flaw in Scenario 1, in that I assumed any combination of specialists could be picked, I didn't really take into consideration that the real specialists may specialize in the same thing.

For future games, I still believe the best scenario is for Cops, Merc, and Mob Boss to all claim Specialists and then things can play out from there. I'm actually more intrigued by this game now that I realize my math was incorrect.

But we're guaranteed the win this game as long as Cops don't lynch Mob Boss, so I propose we all just shush until deadline passes. XD

[DiplomatDC]

No repeats. So the specialists do not actually specialize in the same thing.

[Mastermind of Sin]

No repeats. So the specialists do not actually specialize in the same thing.

Blackberry and Aronis claimed same specialty with different secondary skills. That's possible, I believe.

Mod: Confirm that it's possible for there to be two specialists with the same 5 skill but different 3 skills?

[Blackberry]

No repeats. So the specialists do not actually specialize in the same thing.

This is incorrect. There are no repeats

in stats

. Specialists may have the same 5 Skill and have different stats (i.e. 5, 3, 1 vs 5, 1, 3).

No repeats. So the specialists do not actually specialize in the same thing.

Blackberry and Aronis claimed same specialty with different secondary skills. That's possible, I believe.

Mod: Confirm that it's possible for there to be two specialists with the same 5 skill but different 3 skills?

This is correct.

[BBmolla]

No repeats. So the specialists do not actually specialize in the same thing.

Blackberry and Aronis claimed same specialty with different secondary skills. That's possible, I believe.

Mod: Confirm that it's possible for there to be two specialists with the same 5 skill but different 3 skills?

It's possible.

[Mastermind of Sin]

So if the Boss simply takes Mitillos, Blackberry, and myself, the caper succeeds. I like this.

[BBmolla]

Plot the Caper!

Deadline: (expired on 2014-06-20 02:36:00)

[Aronis]

So basically the Boss needs to take: Mitillos, Blackberry or Myself, and a random henchman and we win!

[RedCoyote]

I trust Aronis more than I trust MoS, and I don't trust either of them.

I don't think it was the best idea to plot our caper in a donut shop.

[Telo]

So basically the Boss needs to take: Mitillos, Blackberry or Myself, and a random henchman and we win!

So the henchmen get to do something now?

I don't mind that we planned ou rcaper in the donut shop, I'm just wondering if we needed two weeks.

[Aronis]

Then take Blackberry instead of me. I couldn't care less.

[Cheery Dog]

I trust Aronis more than I trust MoS, and I don't trust either of them.

I don't think it was the best idea to plot our caper in a donut shop.

Well unless someone wants to come forth and claim they lied about their role (with explanation as to why), they're guarateed to be the specialists and all 3 should be taken.
But I'm happy to take their place, 5 + 3 (from me) and + 3 (from another henchman) works just as well if we want to massclaim it.

[Blackberry]

There is no need for claiming. We have three confirmed specialists - no one else matters (lol).

Seriously, 60% of the henchmen claims are lying. We do NOT want them to claim. If two henchman claim and the mob boss is unfortunate to counterclaim one of them the cops will know who is the mob boss. The ONLY way we lose is if the cops arrest the boss. I have faith the boss isn't dumb enough to pick 2 henchman claims when we have three confirmed roles that guarantee a win.

This has literally turned into a waiting game to see who the cops arrest. The fewer information we give them the better.

[Mitillos]

This game really needs a shorter deadline.

[Aronis]

So this is our roster:

Explosives: Blackberry, Safecracking: Mitillos, Driving: Aronis.

So that should give us 13 points and an easy victory.