Scumleague FF 2015 (Locke, Yiley, TD37!)

For completed/abandoned Mish Mash Games.
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Post Post #1400 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2015 2:48 pm

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

In post 1399, Wraith wrote:
In post 1397, Yiley wrote:Yates was kind of a shaky play any way though dddp, I'm not sure if he would have gotten many points regardless.


HE PLAYED
YATES
OVER RYAN IN THE PLAYOFFS?

WHAT THE FUCK WERE YOU THINKING DDD?

THIS LEGIT MAKES ME ANGRY THAT I'M NOT IN THE PLAYOFFS


Ryan is like the 28th best QB on the year in points per week and has been even worse than usual lately and has averaged 10.3 points over the last three weeks. Let's not pretend this is Matt Ryan circa 2013, this is 2015 Matt Ryan and he went for a pedestrian 12 points on the week, I was right to look somewhere else and Yates played fine in his one full game of action this year and had a great match-up against an awful Colts D.
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Post Post #1401 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2015 4:07 pm

Post by AGar »

Holy fuck what the fuck happened today MY TEAM IS A GOD AMONG MEN!!!!!

Seriously, I only saw the CAR/NYG game because I was installing flooring and then I broke my phone where did this explosion of points come from.
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Post Post #1402 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2015 6:33 pm

Post by hasdgfas »

This is about what I expected from my team.
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Post Post #1403 (ISO) » Sun Dec 20, 2015 8:23 pm

Post by Yiley »

So I'm in the championship, unless Eric ebron somehow scores around 40 more points than Abdullah.
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Post Post #1404 (ISO) » Mon Dec 21, 2015 12:22 am

Post by PokerFace »

Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
In post 1399, Wraith wrote:
In post 1397, Yiley wrote:Yates was kind of a shaky play any way though dddp, I'm not sure if he would have gotten many points regardless.


HE PLAYED
YATES
OVER RYAN IN THE PLAYOFFS?

WHAT THE FUCK WERE YOU THINKING DDD?

THIS LEGIT MAKES ME ANGRY THAT I'M NOT IN THE PLAYOFFS


Ryan is like the 28th best QB on the year in points per week and has been even worse than usual lately and has averaged 10.3 points over the last three weeks. Let's not pretend this is Matt Ryan circa 2013, this is 2015 Matt Ryan and he went for a pedestrian 12 points on the week, I was right to look somewhere else and Yates played fine in his one full game of action this year and had a great match-up against an awful Colts D.

But Ryan was going against the disgusting Jaguars D.
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Post Post #1405 (ISO) » Mon Dec 21, 2015 3:13 am

Post by PokerFace »

Consolation bracket teams are outscoring championship bracket teams in league 2. 3 Consolation teams got 110+. Only 1 championship team got 100+
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Post Post #1406 (ISO) » Mon Dec 21, 2015 5:14 am

Post by Yiley »

I played people badly though I could have gotten a much higher score if I had played Austin and Jackson instead of ammendola and beckham. And also what are you doing Odell? I need you next week!
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Post Post #1407 (ISO) » Mon Dec 21, 2015 5:39 am

Post by Rhinox »

My team picked a hell of a time to shit the bed....
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Post Post #1408 (ISO) » Mon Dec 21, 2015 10:11 am

Post by Debonair Danny DiPietro »

In post 1404, PokerFace wrote:
Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:
In post 1399, Wraith wrote:
In post 1397, Yiley wrote:Yates was kind of a shaky play any way though dddp, I'm not sure if he would have gotten many points regardless.


HE PLAYED
YATES
OVER RYAN IN THE PLAYOFFS?

WHAT THE FUCK WERE YOU THINKING DDD?

THIS LEGIT MAKES ME ANGRY THAT I'M NOT IN THE PLAYOFFS


Ryan is like the 28th best QB on the year in points per week and has been even worse than usual lately and has averaged 10.3 points over the last three weeks. Let's not pretend this is Matt Ryan circa 2013, this is 2015 Matt Ryan and he went for a pedestrian 12 points on the week, I was right to look somewhere else and Yates played fine in his one full game of action this year and had a great match-up against an awful Colts D.

But Ryan was going against the disgusting Jaguars D.


And scored 12 points. He was the 23rd best QB this week with two to play. You can second guess the Yates decision but not playing Ryan was absolutely 100% correct.
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Post Post #1409 (ISO) » Mon Dec 21, 2015 10:47 am

Post by mith »

In post 1389, PokerFace wrote:
In post 1310, Axxle wrote:Was mith resting his players for the playoff game?

In post 1387, Axxle wrote:thanks mith!

Image

Is mith doing ok? I wonder if he went on vacation for the holidays or if his wife gave birth a month early since mith has not been around past couple of weeks


My family did Christmas on Saturday, and we put off shopping too long, so I was out buying everything Thursday evening. Forgot to check my lineup as a result. Didn't need him this week anyway... ;)

I'm doing fine, and no baby yet. We've been quite busy though, and I haven't been checking in here because my L2 team was so terrible. Brutal season all around, but at least I won't be finishing dead last in any leagues and I'm in the L3 final.
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Post Post #1410 (ISO) » Mon Dec 21, 2015 11:26 am

Post by mith »

In post 1360, Talitha wrote:Due to my untimely elimination I must proceed to take out my frustration by crushing mith this week in the GL league.


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Post Post #1411 (ISO) » Mon Dec 21, 2015 11:41 am

Post by mith »

League 2 Power Rankings


TeamManagerEPE RecordWDST Record
AB's Kung Fu DojoWraith108-46107-47
Andy DaltonDebonair Danny DiPietro106-4899-55
Ramblin' RhinosRhinox105-49108-46
LoB Forever!Yiley97-5794-60
Arribadercipickemgenius90-6491-63
Poker's AcesPokerFace79-7579-75
Captain Evil's TeamZachRulez70-8470-84
Slam Dunkin' HomerunjasonT198168-8668-86
Mongolian CinemaKublai Khan64-9066-88
Reindeermith51-10351-103
SS FishbeansBS200047-10748-106
12.5-13.5 psiLlamaFluff39-11544-110


Wraith is obviously the big loser in terms of scheduling this year... BS2000 had worse luck in terms of his actual record vs. his EPE, but he was never in contention for the playoffs with his performances. Wraith's team was best by EPE, and second in WDST and Points Scored, but was knocked out of the playoffs by going 0-3 in the last three weeks (in-division). Wraith was in the top half in scoring 12/14 weeks (with one lowest score), and lost his week 2 game as the second highest scorer for the week.

Meanwhile, the luckiest was Yiley, in the same division, gaining a little over a game to go 10-4 vs. his 8.8 expected wins; his finish was the mirror of Wraith's, going 3-0 to finish the season, including a crucial 5 point win over Wraith in week 13.

Despite a depressing 5 weeks as the worst team in the league and an 0-7 start, I managed to get back to 10th in all measures. LlamaFluff and BS2000 both had two lowest scores.
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Post Post #1412 (ISO) » Mon Dec 21, 2015 5:51 pm

Post by AGar »

Pre-stat correction finals (since I don't think we'll see 18+ point stat corrections)

JPPs4FingaDethPunch 139.20
- 121.46 Mr. Toad's Wild Ride
Heifer Skelter 86.44 -
131.26 Lamora's Lynch Mob


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Post Post #1413 (ISO) » Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:27 pm

Post by pickemgenius »

Arribaderci 102.26
-75.78 Ramblin' Rhinos

LoB Forever! 114.70
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Post Post #1414 (ISO) » Tue Dec 22, 2015 3:32 am

Post by PokerFace »

yay doubt there will be big stat corrections

League 2 Final Week
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League 2 Round 1 of Playoffs
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I am rooting for Yiley as he was from my division and for Rhinox, so DDDP will stay in league 2 and become a part of the AFC North Division next year

Ravens = TBone
Steelers = Wraith
Bengals = DDDP
Browns = Me

It needs to happen!
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Post Post #1415 (ISO) » Tue Dec 22, 2015 4:01 am

Post by Locke Lamora »

Looking forward to it, AGar. Would be nice to have another 40 point game from someone.
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Post Post #1416 (ISO) » Tue Dec 22, 2015 4:45 am

Post by PokerFace »

what does wdst stand for again?
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Post Post #1417 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:16 am

Post by Wraith »

Wraith is obviously the big loser in terms of scheduling this year... BS2000 had worse luck in terms of his actual record vs. his EPE, but he was never in contention for the playoffs with his performances. Wraith's team was best by EPE, and second in WDST and Points Scored, but was knocked out of the playoffs by going 0-3 in the last three weeks (in-division). Wraith was in the top half in scoring 12/14 weeks (with one lowest score), and lost his week 2 game as the second highest scorer for the week.


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Post Post #1418 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:22 am

Post by PokerFace »

Wraith had third lowest points scored against him at end of season. He had second lowest for most of season. So he was not biggest looser in terms of scheduling imo

Had he started Doug Baldwin against Yiley and Myself, he would have won those games. 2 more wins turns 9-5 into 11-3 which equals playoffs

I dropped doug baldwin when he was my worst reciever. When Graham went down Wraith picked him up, but didn't start him as much as he should have. It was obvious doug would get better with Graham out but not as good as he has been.
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Post Post #1419 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2015 12:39 pm

Post by mith »

When I talk about scheduling luck, I'm talking about expected performance vs. a random schedule. Total points against doesn't tell the whole story - what really matters is how those points are distributed throughout the season.

He could have scored more points by starting Doug Baldwin, sure. Other teams could have made similar adjustments with 20/20 hindsight. But based on the points he
did
score, and based on the points the rest of the league scored each week, he was unlucky to have only gone 9-5. (The glaring example of bad luck was week 2, when he had the second highest total for the week and lost by 0.04 points to you.) On the flip side, he was also unlucky for Yiley to have gone 10-4, and for 4 of his losses to have been against division opponents.

Explanation of stats:

EPE is the "Everyone Plays Everyone" record. Rather than matching up with a single team each week, your score is compared to every other team's, so you can score anywhere from 0 to 11 wins for a week. This is equivalent to answering the question "what would my record have been, on average, against a random schedule?" - just divide the numbers by 11 to get your expected record.

WDST is a measurement of expected wins based on the distribution of scores, rather than a discrete comparison. For example, based on the week 2 scores, a score of 111.56 is around the 98th percentile - Wraith was expected to win that week about 98% of the time. Unfortunately, that week fell in the 2% for him, and he lost. The WDST record is the sum of these probabilities, multiplied by 11 to make it comparable to the EPE. In some sense it's a better stat than EPE; EPE normalizes for schedules based on the scores that were actually put up, but WDST normalizes for schedules
and
the distribution of those scores. That 111.56 still counts as a 10-1 record in EPE because of PokerFace's 111.60, but WDST looks at the distribution as a whole (that is, how likely was it for that 111.60 to be there ruining Wraith's day?), and credits Wraith with about a 10.7-0.3, almost the same as PokerFace. EPE is easier to explain, though.
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Post Post #1420 (ISO) » Wed Dec 23, 2015 1:10 pm

Post by mith »

League 3 Power Rankings


TeamManagerEPE RecordWDST Record
TD37's TeamTheDominator37111-43108-46
Gambling ApocalypseAxxle106-48101-53
Once on a Blue MoonDeathNote91-6388-66
SharonD's TeamSharon87-6790-64
Reindeermith82-7282-72
Birmingham StallionsBert81-7381-73
Five Injured MCLsD3f3nd3r77-7782-72
Jahudo's JaguarsJahudo71-8368-86
Geno's Broken JawSalamence2066-8866-88
Cutler's Last Standpablito64-9066-88
Zalderic's TeamAronis63-9169-85
Yuriko's AdorableYurikoJasmine25-12924-130


Yuriko is the big outlier in this league, as she wasn't setting her lineup for most (all?) of the season.

I'm the lucky one here, finishing at 9-5 vs. an expected record of 7.5-6.5. I did have the high score three times, second only to TD37 (and hey, we're in the final). Considering I traded a decent haul to get Andrew Luck, who only played half the season, I feel like that balances out a bit.

DeathNote leads the unlucky club, only going 7-7 vs. an expected 8.3-5.7, including a loss with the third highest score of the week (to TD37, naturally). D3f3nd3r is up there as well, losing a full extra game on top of all his injuries, and Sharon lost out in a tight division race against Bert, with both projected between 7 and 8 wins.
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Post Post #1421 (ISO) » Fri Dec 25, 2015 6:07 am

Post by AGar »

Welcome back Latavius Murray, it's about time.
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Post Post #1422 (ISO) » Fri Dec 25, 2015 1:04 pm

Post by PokerFace »

Well SD run defense does suck
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Post Post #1423 (ISO) » Sun Dec 27, 2015 7:09 am

Post by D3f3nd3r »

Dammit, I forgot that I picked up a streamer defense, forgot to play it, and there we go fumble recovery touchdown in the first two minutes. Shit.
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Post Post #1424 (ISO) » Sun Dec 27, 2015 2:54 pm

Post by Rhinox »

WTF arizona defense???

C'mon blair walsh 4 pts is all i need :/
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