Micro 945 | CultD3 | Game Over!

[Oromis]

why do I feel like the game never advances if I'm not actively posting

-Koba

[Oromis]

If the team is any combination of me/TSE/X wouldn't TSE always be CL here? Because Koba outed as tracker after you'd already claimed FN, and in your universe the other PR is culted, so there's no reason to protect the cult PR. Wouldn't the fact that we outed a nv imply we're trying to protect TSE here, and we've established that cult is really trying to only protect their CL, and in fact wants to bus their converts? And I believe Koba was the first person to even point this out, so clearly we'd be aware of the logic I just stated.

Honestly, I appreciate that you seem to be at least rereading and reconsidering. It's towny and it shows effort towards the game, which at the end of the day is all that really matters. Your read here is probably 0/3 but at least you gave it a good try. The only thing that pisses me off is when someone who is potentially town plays in a way that is anti-town even from their own perspective. (i.e. the quickhammer on Day 1).

I'm pointing out this fact about TSE/myself, because I'm trying to show you that your logic doesn't even feel internally consistent from within the universe you're proposing. I guess I can put myself in your shoes, re-reading the game and big-braining the two slots with the highest respective post counts as cult together, but like I said, if we're cult I feel like it should always imply TSE as CL, unless you think we actually anticipated getting to this point and WIFOMed in preparation.

You're towntelling right now, and I'm interested in how you think, ngl. Kinda don't care about the game result as much anymore, I'd mostly like to better understand your brain.

~joq

[Oromis]

why do I feel like the game never advances if I'm not actively posting

-Koba

So you would say that you are the......Leader?

More like.... we keep the game on Track.

~joq

[Oromis]

I gave the example of Mohab as a slot I'm unlikely to find a lynch on tomorrow because my basic PoE is still Norwee/clidd/Drew and the mechanically fickle slots are Oromis/Porkens/TSE. i.e. she is the player currently least likely to become my #1 CL read. Of course I will still be re-evaluating everyone D3 based on what new information we have at our fingertips, and nothing is set in stone.

I feel like the proposition that (CL!Mohab = True) -> (very low town EV) shouldn't be all that controversial, given the gamestate.

I don't really anticipate ever voting Mohab this game, I just wonder sometimes, because, to be frank, the table as a whole feels relatively uninvested. Which is an easy recipe for scum wins. When I do my sort of trustfall/spyfall exercises, there's a world where Mohab is CL, you're cult PR, and the convert is Norway; or perhaps switched roles between Norway/you. But, it's not a theory I'll really bother looking into this game.

At the end of the day, Drew and Clidd are both essentially absent from the table and not solving. Norway and Porkens are solving a bit, but both, particularly Norway, are only solving in the context of a TSE/myself solve. Which I obviously know to be incorrect, so it's difficult to really TR that. Mohab is not solving anymore. TSE is town fmpov really only through mechanics, I don't think they've really towntold today. And you (Deimos) are towntelling, but I can't help but wonder if it's just a decent scum player being able to take advantage of a weaker table.

I guess at the end of the day, I'm never actually voting you, I'm just curious to see the flips at this point. How close is the {Norway/Drew/Clidd} teamread? It's rare to go 3/3 before you flip the first scum, and in this case it's even harder because we have to match the scum to their role.

Of course, there's a general rule I've come to recognize in my mafia games, and I'm curious to see if it holds true again. That rule is:
- The player with the highest post count is almost always town
- That player is almost always a VT

Of all the games I've ever played, only one player has ever broken this rule, and she's probably the best scum player on our site. Even then, the way she'd inflate the post count would be through a lot of useless bullshit / surface level towntelling. Not posts like 792, which I think are relatively difficult to craft as scum.

Sorry, this post didn't end up going anywhere. I think Deimos is town, but it's not inconceivable to me that he's cult, given the table. This post isn't meant as shade, it's more sort of a pride hedge in case I'm wrong. I think the game is probably an L for town, but I'm curious to see how accurate my reads are.

I encourage anyone who's town here and part of the PoE to start towntelling.

~joq

[Oromis]

Mohab, gun to head:
- what's cult team?
- who's CL in the 3 (I assume Norway?)?
- if they flip non-CL cult, how does it affect your read?
- if they flip town, how does it affect your read?

~joq

[Oromis]

I just wonder sometimes, because, to be frank, the table as a whole feels relatively uninvested

I've been very invested until like, the last 3 irl days, ftr.
Never really felt like that many other players were. Fortunately you've been pretty good D2, Oromis.

Thanks, and ya, didn't mean to rag on you. I think you've played very well, regardless of alignment, and I'd be happy to play more games with you in the future. FWIW if we end up in a true kingmaker scenario (i.e. night w/ 2 cult and 4 town, so cult chooses who wins with them) I encourage them to pick town!Deimos as the convert there.

~joq

[Oromis]

@Porkens

The reason we'd know the other PR is because, if I'm remembering correctly, Norway outed you as FN before Koba claimed tracker.

I'm not arguing against the mechanical possibility of a roleswap. It's just that it seems unintuitive to me.

Doesn't cult want to protect their CL?

So if I'm cult, and tracker (or another PR in an FN setup) has been culted, isn't the play to have one (expendable) cult member claim tracker with an NV on the cult leader?

The person who claims tracker is at risk. Because that's a role that can be mechanically confirmed. And the person with the NV on them is protected.

Why not have someone, maybe the cult convert, claim a track on the cult PR? Or vice versa? Because as cult you actually want the non CL cult to get lynched today, cuz it lets you pollute another slot. Which means no one is clear, and it forces everyone to try to scumhunt all over again. Deimos and Koba brought this up earlier.

There are so many different plays, and in this universe you're proposing, you're saying we did the ones which would be suboptimal for us. Is kind of my issue here.

~joq

[Oromis]

And yeah, anything is possible through WIFOM, but you would have to believe that we fake claimed tracker as CL in anticipation of being SR through our claim but then being read as non!CL cult by virtue of the fact that we fake claimed tracker. Like... the chain of logic is so strained, do you really not see that? Occam's Razor is a thing.

~joq

[Oromis]

you are arguing that we are taking the path of most resistance just to be confirmed scum on d3 and potentially hanged.

[Oromis]

Do you believe we would play suboptimally?

Tbh, this is only really one facet of the things that should Make Us Town. I can't really disprove the logic behind your reads cuz you haven't outlined any framework for how you scumhunt. You've just said "I can't see this guy as mafia," and "Oromis is cult from the reaction." You didn't even clarify the nature of what makes a town vs. cult reaction when I asked you to.

You remind me of a time in college when I had a new head coach come in to the program. I was a sophomore on the rowing team at the time, and the new coach basically only focused on the younger freshmen and sophomores. He disregarded the juniors and seniors, even though they were more experienced, stronger, probably faster. Why? Because the older kids had been trained with a stroke he didn't like, and which he didn't think had potential for true speed. And the younger kids, even though they were slower now, had greater potential because they hadn't been doing the wrong thing for years. Once you get in the habit of doing something for a long time, it's hard to break that habit.

I think your scumhunting "stroke" is an inferior pattern, but one which you've done for so long that you can't break out of. You've been around since 2008, according to your profile. You're set in your ways. You're never changing. It's not worth the effort to reach you, when I could be focusing on other things.

Or, hey, maybe you're just scum doing a pretty good job of emulating the above.

Either way, in case you were wondering my read on you. That's it in a nutshell.

I'm not really mad at you for pushing your reads: shoot your shot. We might just have fundamentally different ways of approaching this game.

~joq

[Oromis]

I direct you to 742. Which I thought you acknowledged in 746.

[Oromis]

If you think i like to go near unoptimal play, I'd like to direct you to viewtopic.php?f=83&t=83068 where i look at setup spec for a good 2 hours just to find an optimal strategy to follow.

[Oromis]

Tbh. I think "suboptimal" does not really capture the right idea for what you're saying we would have had to do. A better word for it is "unstrategic."

And no, I don't think needing to have played unstrategically precludes someone from being scum. I just finished a game where one of the scum players played suicidal in the early game, and then basically just lucked out and made it to a 4-way. We still caught him, but it was a close thing, because it was hard to see him as scum due to the recklessness with which he would've had to play the early game (he proposed and hardpushed a strategy, which, if it had gone forward, would've come close to putting mafia into autoloss).

That all said, needing to visualize someone as playing against their win condition as mafia, whether tactically or accidentally, should be a factor in your read on them. In the above case which I just stated, we caught the guy in question because other than early-game he was scummy as hell, and everyone else was towntelling.

If your read on our slot, holistically, is that we're at that level, then sure. I was arguing mechanics, mostly because I don't really understand your process for reads and you've been fairly reticent in outlining. I'm just trying to get through to you in whatever way I can.

Also, FWIW, I personally would consider myself a fairly strategic scum player. I'll direct you to Newbie 2003, which I played on this site, and in particular, the mafia PT for that game.
- viewtopic.php?f=11&t=82949
- viewtopic.php?f=90&t=82951

~joq

[Oromis]

we had you as lockscum so we didnt bother tracking you sk we tracked the next scummiest person (although we weremt solid on a team with both of you)

[Oromis]

Hey sorry Im reading im jusy not able to respond cause w family

[Oromis]

-Koba

[Oromis]

@Oro another possibly repetitive question. Why did you track TSE? What made you think they were cult leader D1?

We tracked our scumread. Better to not big brain it and at least find cult pr if anything

[Oromis]

i have to say i enjoy this tone from porkens a lot more

[Oromis]

im drunk so lets go
VOTE: norwee obv scum

[Oromis]

-KOBA

[Oromis]

Im drunk so real reads. Im actually more accurate drunk than dober. Proven by statistics

[Oromis]

I love the ol fake drunk posting.

ok im crossfaded ill be honst

[Oromis]

I love the ol fake drunk posting.

ok im crossfaded ill be honst

[Oromis]

It ain't fake, they're messaging me incoherently in our Discord lol.

I'm anticipating things consolidating now, so:

If this gets hammered while I'm away.
- If it flips town or CL, we're tracking Porkens. If you get a FN message tomorrow, don't out it until we out our report so we have the chance to confirm ourselves.
- If it flips Cult PR, we might track for CL might track Porkens idk. Gotta leave that flexibility open in case we get culted :3

If for whatever reason WE are hammered while I'm away.
- Our flip will make TSE mechanically almost-clear and Porkens should visit him. If Porkens visits anyone else it should be viewed with extreme suspicion.

That's it! Think I've made my position clear, at least. Alea iacta est.

~joq

[Oromis]

why

[Oromis]

Cult team is Norwee/clidd/drew. I am specifically confident about Norwee and Drew.
Norwee should be CL.
If Norwee flips non-CL cult, I wouldn't be that surprised. I think it'd mean clidd is less suspect but it's hard to explain why.

I also have no idea who could be CL aside from Norwee.

If Norwee flips town, that'd be a bit more surprising. I think in that scenario, I'd be even more confused and unsure. I think drew would still likely be cult though, clidd I'd be completely unsure.

In any case, I think TSE may be cult, but they'd have to be a convert.

Overall I am not a big fan of Norwee/clidd interactions from clidd's side. They seem to be talkative about a lot of users but for some reason they barely refer to Norwee or even talk about them in any manner. I also mentioned earlier that clidd kind of nonchalantly sheeped Norwee's initial votato wagon which just gives me an impression of them being scum partners with Norwee as CL that does not want much attention dedicated to them. One thing that doesn't work out is that they kind of have a similar history with TSE, but I think Norwee's case is a bit stronger.

Taking these posts together. You are confident on Norway, Drew, Clidd. But you think Clidd was scum partners with Norway day 1... so you think Drew was the convert?

~joq

[Oromis]

Taking these posts together. You are confident on Norway, Drew, Clidd. But you think Clidd was scum partners with Norway day 1... so you think Drew was the convert?

I guess that can be said, yeah.

Why do you think a Norway/Clidd team would convert Drew? Just want to hear your take.

~joq

[Oromis]

clidd what about norwee

[Oromis]

oh why is that?

[Oromis]

Ok so I don’t think Clidd is their convert.
I think it’s Deimos.
@Deimos
Prove me wrong and vote Norwee!

You think Deimos wrote posts like 539 and 804 on..... their cult leader??

~joq

[Oromis]

So, give me a case where clidd isn't CL??

And wtf is this? You're saying this like you can't imagine clidd NOT being CL? I feel like it shouldn't be that hard? I can personally envision a lot of different possibilities?

~joq

[Oromis]

I'm gonna level with all of y'all I know there's at least one or two towns here who are just BUGGING because too many of y'all are not making sense rn.

~joq

[Oromis]

[Oromis]

I cackled. joqiza didnt even share this meme before posting it
-Koba

[Oromis]

rn this is where my reads stand, as a gamesolve:

norwee is CL. clidd is jestering right now to get the votes off of norwee.
because of the lack of a quickhammer onto norwee I see that it is unlikely that norwee is anything other than CL/VT

other theory, should norwee flip cult PR/converted cult:
the 2 scum are already on the wagon. which in our eyes in this case would be mohab CL + TSE convert.

that's where we are at.

[Oromis]

Porky visited Deimos.

~joq

[Oromis]

Yeah fellas I'm on phone and busy today so will keep it short but we're pretty close to autowin here. Porky keeps visiting people and I keep tracking him to clear our slot. We hit one more cult and then Porky and I can just lynch everyone. Koba and I discussed the Norway self hammer and I guess it means there's the chance that we live in a Harder Universe but I'm saying we just lynch Drew first and if he flips town then we can start getting paranoid. We have three shots at autowin, the only way cult wins here is they have to bring both their members through 5way lylo.

Also huge props to the towncore we fucking did it guys. Absolute woke town energy.

~joq

[Oromis]

VOTE: Doctor Drew

[Oromis]

If we get scum with any of our 3 ML its autowin for town

[Oromis]

Js drew was active on site around the time we put norwee at l-1 on d2. -koba

[Oromis]

Js drew was active on site around the time we put norwee at l-1 on d2. -koba

What are you inferring from this?

that hes probably flipping scum

Honestly if drew is scum here then cult may as well forfeit and save us the time

[Oromis]

I honestly can't see the Norway move as tactical unless there's something I'm misunderstanding about mechanics. With CL down and both PRs alive and able to clear themselves, the game has swung hard against cult. The only teams that remotely have a chance now are some 2/3 of Mohab, TSE, and Deimos, and even then it's slim because in 5-way we have 2/3 chance of hitting scum and if we hit a single one it's auto. As someone who self-hammered literally the last game I played when I was scum, I did so because my partner was in deep and I knew she could endgame with the gamestate as it was so I acted to deny the town further information. Norway's self if we were to analyze it would imply the same, but the gamestate now seems so stacked in our favor that I have to believe that it was just a forfeit.

~joq

[Oromis]

I agree w/ you. I think Norway gave up, because with him dying, cult is screwed.

~joq

[Oromis]

I guess you could say... Norway didn't want Deimos to Finnish him. :Mrgreen:

~joq

[Oromis]

Hammer it... also fast night everyone so we dont wait forever. @mod if this flips scum we probably just endgame.

And porkens pls go on someone other than myself or deimos tonight for mechanical clearing reasons

[Oromis]

Im still cackling at how accurate this turned out LOL

[Oromis]

cult lynch machine go brrrr

[Oromis]

Porkens visited mohab

~joq

[Oromis]

VOTE: Clidd

[Oromis]

I'm not sure if I mentioned this at some point earlier, but the first few points I made in this game were like intentionally really awkward and scummy. And I guess partially it was to rxn test and soft VT but if I have to be honest the reality is I just wanted to troll Koba by having them come back and see us on L-1 lol

~joq

[Oromis]

F U joqiza. LOL
also mafia please just forfeit because its literally autowin.

[Oromis]

I think it was either TSE or, ironically, Clidd himself.

TSE also low-key fire for holding the line on the Norway CL read when we were thinking about switching to Drew. Game winning moves

~joq

[Oromis]

if you guys wanna see our private chat about this game, feel free to join: https://discord.gg/gC7ycg