Micro 945 | CultD3 | Game Over!

[Deimos27]

I'm not ignoring that Norwee/Porkens remains a possibility. I just think (a) Drew has been scummier than Porkens and (b) the friendly neighbour should be given another night to message another player.

[Deimos27]

Lmao flashbacks to that one time I tried to secret hydra with Clemency and instantly hydraslipped in my ongoing game right after receiving access.

[Deimos27]

I would nominate myself in those instances (CL or green flip), but if peeps still suspect me of being the convert I guess Oromis works.

[Deimos27]

I've been reading her as town, with a slim chance of being converted (I discount this because of Norwee/Drew association). The vote seems consistent with her previously expressed views.

[Deimos27]

Do you have reason to think it's scum?

[Deimos27]

As I said, I'm reading her town.

[Deimos27]

I don't know how my answer could've been any more solid, seeing as I, as town, do not have information advantage, and cannot tell you her alignment with certainty.

[Deimos27]

I said no "but". I told you the only way I see her as scum is if she was converted and I am wrong about Norwee/Drew. Your reading is uncharitable.
I refer you to my 539 for a rather comprehensive review of why I consider Norwee to be scum. I was still expressing uncertainty at the time but I've become more and more confident in the logic over time.

Norwee's stance on the votato wagon is the most opportunistic of them all, while his interactions with me have been broadly unnatural. Norwee/Drew as a team has much explanatory power throughout the events of D1.

[Deimos27]

"Since you're here" m8 I'm watching LCS and just checking in intermittently

[Deimos27]

Cult is Mohab, drew, omoris.

I have spoken

If you plan to sell that with 3 days to deadline you have some work to do.

[Deimos27]

Walk us through it, Porkens.

[Deimos27]

Oromis, if you believe Porkens is real and I was likely real on D1 at least, do you not believe this makes Drew likely scum? I've asked you this before about the wagon analysis but I don't believe that you responded.

[Deimos27]

The reason I bought the Porkens quickhammer easily is that I have been in a few games with quickhammers and it's always been town (pre-LyLo). I can directly reference you to these games if you wish. It was consistent with my mental image of Porkens' playstyle that he would be capable of a similar play.

[Deimos27]

TSE, why can clidd only be a convert at worst?

[Deimos27]

The reason I bought the Porkens quickhammer easily is that I have been in a few games with quickhammers and it's always been town (pre-LyLo). I can directly reference you to these games if you wish. It was consistent with my mental image of Porkens' playstyle that he would be capable of a similar play.

Also why are you incredulous about Norwee buying it, he claims a FN message from that slot lmao

[Deimos27]

Mohab reads to me like newbtown. And I think that's ok, despite her having some experience with the game, because we established that she used to soft gamethrow and meme a lot, and this game she'll be playing with exceptional seriousness.

Additionally I've been sitting on a potential towntell with 400. I think cult, at least og cult, would know that there is a maximum of 3 players. I know experienced scum sometimes fake a lack of information in exactly this way to get townread, but Mohab doesn't strike me as that kind of player. Would appreciate feedback on this.

[Deimos27]

Norwee's 460 could maybe still be a townie that glanced over Oromis's message and hence misread it, but look at the follow-up in 462. A townie says something like "oops, I misread your first post, I thought you tracked Porkens". Norwee's reaction looks like a panicked scum trying to correct his mistake with a "nah m8 you obviously tracked Porkens so how can you possibly know about TSE". Like that post honestly makes zero sense, you don't get to

tell

someone else who they did or did not track.

[Deimos27]

TSE, I agree with Norwee/Drew team. Have for a while. But I believe Norwee is the CL.

[Deimos27]

So is clidd being convert only PoE for you?

[Deimos27]

TSE, I agree with Norwee/Drew team. Have for a while. But I believe Norwee is the CL.

When Norwee got to 3 votes yesterday he stuck his head in the sand and didn't comment on anything. Sort of like how he's reacted to pressure today too. Contrast that with Drew. As soon as he took on a couple votes he got very defensive and survivalist. Cult knows that town expects CL to be exactly that: defensive and survivalist. I can totally see PT messages along the lines of "CL should be relatively unresponsive to pressure, while the cultist should play quite defensively to run misdirection". I know I'm going into WIFOM, but this is my guess at the logical number of wine swaps that would occur.

The other tell I have is Norwee's presence on the L-1 wagon on Drew at the start of today.

Those three elements are why I see CL!Norwee > CL!Drew.

(1) How defensively Drew reacted to pressure yesterday
(2) How Norwee tended to

ignore

pressure
(3) How easily Norwee bussed Drew today

I will say, when it comes to (1), that even if you go with the

most

surface level analysis and expect CL to be defensive, that wouldn't check with how Drew went about it. CL would aim to balance their defense with gamesolviness to get townread. Drew never got convincingly gamesolvey while he was under pressure, and I think he overdid his defensiveness. It was too obvious to be CL.

[Deimos27]

I'm still amazed that the Norwee wagon just won't take off. If my tr on Mohab is correct, it's now 2 town on the wagon.
With Norwee's omnipresence in everyone's lynch pools, I don't see why scum

wouldn't

be trying to push this lynch,

unless

Norwee

is

in fact CL.

[Deimos27]

So is clidd being convert only PoE for you?

Convert-at-worst / not!(og cult), I mean

[Deimos27]

The reason I bought the Porkens quickhammer easily is that I have been in a few games with quickhammers and it's always been town (pre-LyLo). I can directly reference you to these games if you wish. It was consistent with my mental image of Porkens' playstyle that he would be capable of a similar play.

Link them.

The last game I played was Open 778, featuring town!Alisae quickhammering town!Albert B. Rampage on D2 (post 1467, only 24h of a 7 day DP played!)
The game I played before that was Newbie 2002, featuring town!Kerset quickhammering town!amercelo D1 (post 553, over 3 days to deadline)
The only other game I've played since returning from an almost 3 year hiatus was Newbie 1998 which we won in about 13 pages or something ridiculous, with back-to-back scum lynches days 1 and 2.

[Deimos27]

Oh yeah links.
Open 778: viewtopic.php?f=51&t=82922
Newbie 2002: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=82899

[Deimos27]

I don't really follow your wagon analysis (I'm not a big believer in wagonomics, generally), but I agree that town!Porkens, town!Deimos, and town!TSE starts to implicate Drew simply through PoE.

The relevant quotes from my ISO are:

Spoiler:

Actually with Porkens + votato town the Drew wagon looks a lot better. Votato sort of emerges as the counterwagon.

Like gee I wonder why scum didn't touch the Drew wagon. I believe its maximum size was Porkens + votato + Deimos

I almost forgot about the votato wagon analysis.
I still think scum!Drew makes a hell of a lot of sense when assuming a D1 town!Porkens because of the shape those wagons took. It was

votato (2) - Oromis, TSE
Drew (3) - votato, Porkens, Deimos

until Norwee and clidd rallied to votato. Since we know votato was town (and assuming town!Porkens I know that the Drew wagon was all town), the logical way to read this is that Drew is scum and votato blew up as a reactionary counterwagon.

The basic idea is that Drew was a leading wagon with 3 town on it (assume town!Porkens ^ town!Deimos). Therefore, if Drew is town, he had high mislynch equity for scum, and you would expect them to add more fuel to the flame. Instead scum didn't even touch the wagon, and votato became the lynch instead.

The way it went down is that Norwee voted votato, tying the wagons, and then came clidd, putting votato in the lead. Scum!Drew = True has more explanatory power than town!Drew = True in this case, because the expected outcome when Drew is town is for his wagon to remain in the lead or get pushed to L-1, while when he is scum, you expect the next most leading wagon (votato) to manifest as a counterwagon.

Note also the charismatic model of mafia, which argues that scum tend to want to lynch the most charismatic townies. Votato has like, negative charisma, (Drew isn't hyper charismatic either but he had shown at least some limited lynch resistance). The fact that a votato lynch went through so early means scum had low standards, which supports the idea that one of their own (Drew!) was currently at risk and they had to settle for lynchbait.

My distaste of Norwee's vote on votato also plays into this. I don't see why he needs to force himself to make that awkward votato push, when Drew is a wagon with more mislynch equity (at the time of his vote).

Unless

, of course, Drew is Norwee's scumpartner, and he wants to shift momentum in that direction.

There are always gonna be alternative explanations that can account for town!Drew, but this one is so logical it surely has a probabilistic edge. This voting pattern of one leading wagon, occupied only by townies, being exchanged for the second largest wagon, which is against town lynchbait, very often indicates that the second wagon was a counterwagon to the first.

[Deimos27]

and I myself feel the need to hash out his statement of us as having converted cult equity before we proceeed.

I no longer think you have converted cult equity because I don't think you make sense as a partner to Norwee/Drew.
My earlier opinion wasn't based on particularly complicated reasoning. I expect cult to be converting a player who is competent, charismatic, and widely townread. Your D1 play came off to me as highly competent, very charismatic, and you were, in fact, widely townread. The fact that I expected myself to be a high priority convert also played into this, since I thought if it isn't me, it is probably Oromis.

[Deimos27]

By "mislynch equity" I mean the likelihood that scum will want to push the slot, not the likelihood that the slot gets mislynched. My wording was slightly misleading there. I think votato was marginally lynchbaitier than Drew in playstyle, but I

don't

think that means scum was likely to prefer his lynch over Drew's. I think when Drew was the leading wagon, scum would've wanted to push that one through, knowing that votato has an even lower threat level.

[Deimos27]

I'll look at your Drew and clidd thoughts (784 and 788) in a bit.

[Deimos27]

My thoughts on Drew are limited, and are as follows:

- I did not find his defensiveness in reactions to Porkens AI.

- The main thing that I wanted to look at again was 236, specifically his post edit w.r.t. his townreading us. I wondered if his progression on me was natural. For reference, the main post he would be looking at would be 235, in addition to 168, 171, 186, and 221. It is sort of difficult for me to gauge my own towniness in a way--this is one where I'll need others to weigh in. The main question is whether the reversal is natural in the context of my posts or whether the townread came because he was assessing my slot through mafia goggles and felt I was no longer an easy mislynch. On Day 1 I was inclined to believe the former, but I want to revisit it now.

- Day 2 I have not loved Drew so far. 582 is where he reverses on us and positions himself around our fight with Porkens. His read on Mohab there is weakly justified, and his justifications for FOSing Clidd and Deimos equate to "too towny, might be scum." (To be fair, I have my own paranoid considerations of CL!Deimos and CL!Clidd.)

- The end of 582 and 591 are ostensible townslips, but feel less natural than Mohab's. I honestly am not buying townslips from anyone at this stage of the game and they will probably end up a minor factor in my reads.

- 747 is weird in that he claims to have had a gut impulse of "scum theater" in response to the interactions of the two uncc'd PRs, at least one of whom must be town.

- 750 is also odd in that Drew considers us as CL. I understood his position before this to be that we were town on Day 1, but potentially converted. His read on us feels inconsistent here.

~joq

What I dislike about Drew's unvote is that it only occurred after you unvoted Norwee — but since that was the first time he posted since you started your towntelling spree, I can't really draw any conclusions without confbiasing. Broadly I would say I resonated with the view that you were initially suspicious but shed that cloak over the course of many of the quoted posts, so I don't think that progression is unnatural. It would be easier to tell if he had been posting more often so I could judge that interaction without the Norwee association muddying the waters.

When it comes to D1 Drew, I'm more concerned with his takes on Mohab and Porkens in 216 and 230, since neither of these views made sense to me. Especially calling out Porkens on being opportunistic, when he clearly wasn't, and then voting him, came off as an opportunistic and OMGUSy attempt at discrediting the push on himself while counterwagoning it by tying the Porkens and Drew wagons.

His D2 play has been less than flattering as well, and you make some good points. 591 for instance reads as a rather unnatural attempt at feigning ignorance about cult mechanics. You either know that there is a cap on all three cult, in which case you don't include this questioning "right?", or you don't know, in which case you don't comment on it or you go check the rules. Also this "ya but that's just wifom" pings me in general because everything in mafia can be construed as WIFOM and the key is working around the probabilities and expected wine swaps, not just ignoring every comment susceptible to it. I remember reading somewhere, I think the mafiascum wiki, about how it's a good scum tactic to say "but that's all just wifom anyway" in order to void uncomfortable topics, and his phrasing is annoyingly similar. Looks like it suits Drew's agenda for people to suspect Oromis so he wants to invalidate discussion about a perfectly legitimate clue: would scum!Oromis have played a fake guilty after being converted?

750 is also odd, as you say, and suggests that something has changed significantly in Drew's opinion of your D1 play, since he's been townreading it previously.

In general Drew feels inactive and detached from the game, which makes it hard to get a strong read. The main thing that sticks out at me about him as an individual is that he's not contributing very much and he doesn't feel all that gamesolvey — but I'm wary of his inactivity clouding my vision about how AI that is. I admit that I'm mostly dependent on the wagon analysis and the Norwee association in my own scumread of him.

[Deimos27]

Ok I like 788. I think it goes some way in explaining for me why the convert is neither me nor Oromis. Gives me further confidence in Norwee/Drew because the main converts I see for this duo are clidd and perhaps TSE, but I couldn't figure out why they would choose one of these two.

[Deimos27]

I'm not 100% that it's Norwee > Drew, but 781 outlines why I think it's so.

[Deimos27]

Man, Deimos is one of those super nit picky types 'your ellipsis's contained 3 dots not 4, that definitely comes from a town mind set'. I kid I kid.

Worked all day yesterday, enjoyed the outdoors the rest if the day, and I have been at work all day today.

I will be on later with stuffs and things.

You need not kid; I thought the points about 591 were pretty nitpicky as well. It's mainly the fact that you struck two tells with one stone that made it worth mention.

[Deimos27]

Ok, but how did you narrow it down to those two?

There were too many possibilities to consider so I took it back to basics and scumread someone individually. That someone was Norwee.
I also had the wagon analysis association that there must be scum in Porkens/Drew.
I find Drew scummier than you, and I think you should get to live so you can send more FN messages.
I'm also yet to see any contradiction in holding scum!Norwee ^ scum!Drew. In fact, I think it has a lot of explanatory power.

[Deimos27]

The Norwee/Drew Case Compendium

Why Norwee is scum
- Tonal awkwardness (539)
- Votato wagon positioning (ibid.)
- Oromis tell (742, though I prefer my take in 773)
- His wagon won't gain traction despite him being in everyone's lynch pool (782)

Why Drew is scum with Norwee
- votato was the counterwagon to Drew (792)
- Norwee's awkward votato vote was to shift momentum off Drew (ibid.)
- Drew lacks a gamesolving disposition and has made a couple culty posts (796)

Why Norwee is CL rather than Drew (781)
- Drew being overly defensive D1
- Norwee's unresponsiveness to pressure D1&D2
- Norwee bussing Drew too easily, and in fact all the way to L-1 at start of D2

Does this team have compatible converts?
- Yes! See my reaction to 788 in 797

[Deimos27]

Would like to see Mohab, Drew, TSE, and clidd get some more words in.
Then hopefully we can finally get a Norwee choo choo going if nothing notable occurs.

[Deimos27]

Norwee needs to get words in too, the lad's been MIA for 34 hours.

[Deimos27]

Norweeeeeee I missed you <3

[Deimos27]

Love the new profile pic btw

[Deimos27]

I mentioned this to joqiza, but we should be careful about running up someone to L-1 as if they are non CL cult they will likely just self hammer as they retain their numbers (and gain another scum).
has anyone been at L-1 yet btw? - serious question.

Drew got to L-1 at the start of today after TSE voted him, but I unvoted for the same fear of cult (self-)quickhammers.

[Deimos27]

That one's actually pretty interesting. The longer Drew was at L-1 the likelier he is to be town/CL.

[Deimos27]

I don’t really thing Deimos is scum for effort. It’s wrong on me though.

Can you fix the grammar so I can understand this please and thank you

[Deimos27]

Switch thing for *think. Grammar was fine.

So you townread me, but you think it's wrong of you to do so. This kind of thinking confuses me. Don't townread me if you don't think I'm worthy of a townread.

[Deimos27]

That one's actually pretty interesting. The longer Drew was at L-1 the likelier he is to be town/CL.

He was L-1 for 21 minutes. Probably too short to draw conclusions about.
Though if Drew were scum with TSE I'd expect TSE not to place the L-1 vote until Drew was online at the same time, so that a townie unvote could be mitigated via an instant Drew selfhammer. Might give slight support to the idea that TSE isn't aligned with a non-CL Drew.

[Deimos27]

hey Deimos, we have a gamesolve you might be interested in. I'm going to out it but I want norwee to finish interacting with me first. -Koba

I am very very interested!

[Deimos27]

Norwee, remember D1 when I said you should hard effort this game so I can townread you based on Open 778 meta?
I'm sad that you never took me up on it

[Deimos27]

alright since norwee gave all they were probably going to give, here's my solve as of now:

Drew: Cult Leader
Norwee: Cult PR
Clidd: Converted Town

Yayyyy it's the same as my curret solve! Except I had Norwee as CL and Drew as Cult PR.
Walk me through that dynamic?

[Deimos27]

current*

[Deimos27]

Hmhmhmhmhm does Norwee have it in him to pull the big boy white flag gambits? Maybe this

is

in fact the last puzzle piece. Lynching non-CL cult isn't that big a deal, and Norwee didn't need to get that spooked in 62 (the tonality of which I hate a lot, btw) if he's the CL. Same story with his indecisiveness about votato/Drew. That counterwagon has a lot more reason to be there if Drew is the CL, while Norwee can just sort of chill otherwise.

My thoughts also go back to that time Norwee soft shaded Mohab for getting on the Drew wagon. The sense I got from his tone is that he hated that outcome. Which makes no sense if CL!Norwee + cult!Drew. Then there was him eventually unvoting Drew to go for TSE. Again, why not keep pushing Drew?

And then there

is

that 21 minutes Drew spent at L-1 without a hammer. Which is either completely insignificant or super significant, depending on who was online at the time.

My tunnel may have caused me to read the tea leaves (er... wine glasses) the wrong way. This might be Drew after all. And I'm very excited about it.

[Deimos27]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Drew
Choo chooooooo with that L-2

[Deimos27]

"Vote Drew
Choo choo
With that L-2"

Geez, Dr. Seuss mode enabled

[Deimos27]

Drew is the one who was offwagon, when it comes to the votato lynch.
This too aligns better with my expectations of CL behaviour.

[Deimos27]

Hold up let me dig up the Norwee reaction to Mohab L-2 vote

[Deimos27]

VOTE: drew

^Doesn’t like the wagon rush.

VOTE: Drew
Counterwagon complete. Porkens will confirm his role.

Wait, actually Norwee voted after Mohab did. He was the L-2.

[Deimos27]

Hmhmhmhmhmhhhmhmhmhmhmhmhmhhm

[Deimos27]

I agree Drew might be a good lynch based on him jumping on Porkens today. But does he have cult leader equity? Which is more likely between Drew and TSE in your opinion Deimos?

But look at this though.
Tell me if that ain't a cult pr claim.
If this is CL!Norwee he doesn't go "but does he have more cult leader equity than TSE? Deimos, what say you? Are you sure?"
He just pushes Drew.
The way he questions Drew CL equity and shades Mohab vote makes me feel like he was definitely still trying to undermine this wagon.

[Deimos27]

Norwee, please confirm, you were trying to pocket me this game, right?
I just have that feeling in my bones.
That some pocketing action was attempted.

[Deimos27]

Solving this setup is a Herculean task. Cult is a buffed mafia since they don't just kill, but the killed player comes to play for their team (2 man swing vs the 1 man swing of a normal NK). And the culted players all turn into potential jesters misdirecting from CL, and it's all a real pain to sort. And the town PRs just don't seem strong enough to compensate.

[Deimos27]

Lynching non-CL cult isn't that big a deal, and Norwee didn't need to get that spooked in 62 (the tonality of which I hate a lot, btw) if he's the CL.

Wait a second, 62 was about the Oromis wagon, I'm daft. All the other points stand.

[Deimos27]

Yeah I think this version of the setup is a first and last for me. Just generally unfun to be punished for lynching non-town. And when cult hits PR the fakeclaim potential is actually oppressive.

When it comes to CL!Drew vs CL!Norwee, I'm just sort of waiting for more players to come online and chime in.

[Deimos27]

You no longer buy a Drew lynch, Norwee?

[Deimos27]

I wouldn't say Drew's posts are particularly attention-grabbing. Quite the contrary. He's been just as reticent today as you and clidd.

[Deimos27]

The mental gymnastics I'm currently undergoing in trying to figure out this WIFOM is

extreme

.

[Deimos27]

I mean like, what do you consider as being attention-grabbing? 895 fallaciously infers that because Drew's posts have caught attention, that was also his intended or preferred outcome. To me, due to posting volume alone, he totally seems like he's been trying to fly under the radar. There's been attempts at seeming gamesolvey, there's been attempts at feigning information disadvantage. "Too obvious" is not how I'd characterise him D2. Maybe D1 to some extent.

[Deimos27]

Not to mention the AtE.

[Deimos27]

Listen, everything I said in my rant post from D1 is true. I didn't start the game as cult and I haven't been converted.

But, and has been mentioned, killing a VT isn't really terrible and you guys would know going in to tomorrow that at the very least there are no new cultists.

So feel free to run the train on me.

must...resist...AtE....
-koba

Lol, spin it as you will. I just don't have the effort in me at the mo to fight my lynch, and the realization that my lynch isn't the worst case scenario.

[Deimos27]

I need my man clidd to check in.

[Deimos27]

Part of me just wants to turbolynch Drew -> Norwee and if neither of them flips CL it's a deserved loss (and maybe I at least get converted out of pity).

Then the rational part of my brain steps in and tells me that every day phase needs to be milked for maximum content and analysis.

So alas I sit here and suffer from endless WIFOM speculation.

[Deimos27]

I was on a solo Norwee vanity wagon for so long, and now when I finally return to Drew everybody else wants Norwee/clidd.

What is life

[Deimos27]

And where is Mr. Holmes? I liked that guy

[Deimos27]

My impression of the game state is that Drew + Norwegian as a scum-base is not a theory so tangible right now, as I feel that with the ease that both are getting scumread, there is an indirect conduction coming from someone that is camouflaging among the players.

Pedit: I ask the opposite question -> What makes me likely to be CL ?

Both Drew and Norwee currently oppose a lynch on each other. Porkens also seems to oppose these two lynch alternatives. You too now seem to oppose these lynch alternatives (at least as a team). Furthermore, the convert could well be pushing the one out of the two who isn't CL.

I don't think your inference is valid, given the gamestate.

[Deimos27]

I was on a solo Norwee vanity wagon for so long, and now when I finally return to Drew everybody else wants Norwee/clidd.

What is life

was that on d1? bc d1 a norwee wagon woulda worked.

I am referring to D2. Mohab did eventually join me, but it took a lot of push and shove.

[Deimos27]

My impression of the game state is that Drew + Norwegian as a scum-base is not a theory so tangible right now, as I feel that with the ease that both are getting scumread, there is an indirect conduction coming from someone that is camouflaging among the players.

Pedit: I ask the opposite question -> What makes me likely to be CL ?

Both Drew and Norwee currently oppose a lynch on each other. Porkens also seems to oppose these two lynch alternatives. You too now seem to oppose these lynch alternatives (at least as a team). Furthermore, the convert could well be pushing the one out of the two who isn't CL.

I don't think your inference is valid, given the gamestate.

Like scum don't always townread each other, especially scum who only need to focus on the survival of one.

[Deimos27]

Deimos, I remember you making a case on Norwegian and even sympathizing with Mohab regarding the slot. However, you changed the lynch order to Drew>Norwegian.

Considering the scenario in which a lynch between these two occurs, and the flip is town, does that change anything in the chain that you have between them ?

I'm honestly still on the fence about which I prefer to lynch first. It was really late at night when Oromis pitched Drew to me and at the time I felt like a great revelation had come upon me, but now I've somewhat lost that thread. Part of me wants to take the wagons at face value and say that because Drew got to L-1 easily but Norwee wagon has been really hard to push, Norwee is the likelier CL.

I think that even if one of them fipped town I'd still suspect the other, but I'd need to do a lot of thinking about the new partnership dynamics. clidd/Drew, for instance, I believe is still a possible team, as is Norwee/Porkens (though I have tonereads that imply this one is unlikely).

[Deimos27]

And then there are the crazy worlds where Oromis is og cult, a PR got recruited, and Oromis took over that PR's claim.
But I've sort of already accepted that we just lose in those cases.

[Deimos27]

I currently feel that the clidd slot is the only obstacle to a Norwee + Drew chainlynch CL PoE solve. I am hoping your updated reads will help elucidate my thoughts.

[Deimos27]

Since deimos wants to seed doubt about us, im gonna out what we know:
tse is CLEAR of being OG cult(assuming they arent CL who no culted n1) They visited no one

Thats why we softed him as town.

We think that we are actually in the rolestopper. It makes no sense for porkens to visit norwee here as FN. His claim is bullshit and we definitely already have culted PR.
Keep the wagon on porkens.

This is the post where Oromis claims tracker with result on TSE. It happened 14 hours after daystart, leaving ample time for co-ordinating a claim. I think a real tracker claim would most likely come at daystart and with a guilty. Not just clearing a scummy slot that was getting suspicious looks. (Protecting the cult leader)

"a real tracker claim would most likely come at daystart and with a guilty"
"with a guilty"
Wot

[Deimos27]

Oromis lynch is

not

happening, he can mechanically clear himself using Porkens FN.

[Deimos27]

And Norwee is just embracing the lynchbait, in the meanwhile.

[Deimos27]

@deimos I am still up to lynch Norwee here, come to the wagon on norwee and we can prob get drew tomorrow

I'm still thinking about it. We got time.

[Deimos27]

CL!Norwee makes more sense with a clidd convert.

[Deimos27]

Drew has been one of clidd's main scumreads on both days, while he's somewhat resisted the CL!Norwee angle.

[Deimos27]

Because claiming early when there is no point to do so is just giving cult advantage assuming town!Oromis perspective. But that’s not what they did.

He literally didn't claim though. Not until he felt he was being shaded as cult.

There's still 0 way we lynch the tracker claim when it's a role that can be more easily sorted after further mechanical interactions.

[Deimos27]

I totally respect the claim there because being able to clear two slots that people were susp of (himself and TSE) is really good for the PoE.

[Deimos27]

Flashbacks to HumanEatingMonkey being the honorary fifth scumpartner in Open 778 due to his unparalleled capacity to tunnel town.

[Deimos27]

This is a nonsequitur. You were arguing that real tracker wouldn't out with an inno. I disputed that.

[Deimos27]

Ehhhh ad hom is a characteristic of Koba, not necessarily of scum. I'm sure you've played with hyperaggressive townies before. Clidd made the meta case earlier, though I didn't look at it all that closely (he was arguing that it's town AI, but didn't offer any contrasting scummeta, so I simply dismissed it as NAI and moved on).

[Deimos27]

TSE has also completely changed his mindset today, making full sense for him to have been culted tracker.

Wanna go into more details about that?

[Deimos27]

Here are some of the problems I've seen so far with this Oromis/TSE conception:

1. Why did TSE suddenly flip his stance on Drew to start voting Norwee, when it would've been perfectly consistent of him to stay on Drew and help Oromis push that through?

2. Why did Oromis give a fake inno on somebody who is, in your world, a mere convert? Isn't he likelier to do so of town, to gain greater towncred and gamestate control? Recall that lynching non-CL cult would be

better

for him than lynching town. He could even gambit a fake guilty on his own cult PR.

3. If Oromis is CL and TSE is the tracker convert, who is the third partner?

4. TSE claimed that it is his PR meta to crumb D1. How do you deal with this?

[Deimos27]

1. TSE has been voting Drew since the start of the day. Oromis only just joined the wagon. These votes are sufficiently distanced to be in no way obvious nor offer any concerning amount of team equity.

2. Welcome to mafia, the game that is predicated around reading each other's minds. I do think this point is a

significant

issue with your solve. Oromis gains nothing from giving a fake inno on his scumbuddy, all it does is removes a player he would ideally like to lynch from his lynchpool. I think he would give the fake inno on a townie (for towncred with that player or if that player flips, + the added gamestate control of likely getting that player on his side). Alternatively he would give a guilty on his own cult PR and drive an easy mislynch in that direction.

3. I doubt Mohab, since he put Oromis to L-1 D1 and did the hammer baiting business (by claiming it was L-2). Drew was also voting Oromis, but ok, maybe that one is more possible.

4. TSE hasn't demonstrated this to be true, but since he's the one under suspicion, I'd rather put the burden of proof on you. Also, self meta is not against the rules; it is distinct from a trust tell.

[Deimos27]

I'd encourage you to case this solve, if it weren't for the fact that Oromis is simply never going to be the lynch today. I'm not a fan of him wasting his track on confirming himself through Porkens, but it is much better than risking his lynch today.

[Deimos27]

I'd rather put the burden of proof on you.

I'd rather not shift through his library of games just to prove something he can easily prove himself by linking games.

I mean, if you want to let him show you what he wants, then sure. If you really suspect him you'll have to check through his games anyway to make sure he's not being selective with his examples.

[Deimos27]

Who would you vote if neither me or Drew were the option then?

Clidd by PoE.

[Deimos27]

That is correct, Oromis.

[Deimos27]

If the PoE has already been contaminated it means a loss. Are you considering that outcome?

It doesn't mean an instant loss, as we would have another lynch tomorrow. But yes, mafia inevitably involves some risks. If Mohab is playing the best game of her life as CL, for instance, then we probably lose.

[Deimos27]

this was something I discussed with joqiza but I think i need to out this now so we can work with the assumption we can ignore 1 town being a shitter

Yeah I identified the possibility as well but didn't really want to rely on it cause we can run into all sorts of deadline shenanigans.

[Deimos27]

Slank noted.

[Deimos27]

The given context combined with some brief googling has led me to deduce that this term refers to Drew's absence.

[Deimos27]

Just sheep whomever Oromis and I opt to vote out of Drew/Norwee when it gets closer to deadline.

[Deimos27]

At the end of the day we'll have to sheep each other anyway to avoid splitting the town vote. Until then I do encourage independent thinking.

[Deimos27]

Is this character development?

[Deimos27]

I thought you were townreading Norwee, Porkens my man.

[Deimos27]

I recommend it.

[Deimos27]

“Fuck it” not “fucknit”

I thought it was just a very creative insult.

[Deimos27]

This game has deteriorated

[Deimos27]

I gave the example of Mohab as a slot I'm unlikely to find a lynch on tomorrow because my basic PoE is still Norwee/clidd/Drew and the mechanically fickle slots are Oromis/Porkens/TSE. i.e. she is the player currently least likely to become my #1 CL read. Of course I will still be re-evaluating everyone D3 based on what new information we have at our fingertips, and nothing is set in stone.

[Deimos27]

I feel like the proposition that (CL!Mohab = True) -> (very low town EV) shouldn't be all that controversial, given the gamestate.

[Deimos27]

but logic is NAI

Beautifully succinct. Put that on your sig.

[Deimos27]

This game feels stagnant and I feel like I'm losing motivation. I'd really like a lynch soon.
Where is clidd

[Deimos27]

I encourage anyone who's town here and part of the PoE to start towntelling.

^^^^^^

[Deimos27]

(Also I'm a bit tired because I spent last night and the last few hours of today setting up a game I'm modding)

[Deimos27]

Anyway, I agree with Oromis that any team containing him + TSE will have TSE as the CL, for reasons mentioned numerously including in my 1084.

[Deimos27]

I just wonder sometimes, because, to be frank, the table as a whole feels relatively uninvested

I've been very invested until like, the last 3 irl days, ftr.
Never really felt like that many other players were. Fortunately you've been pretty good D2, Oromis.

[Deimos27]

I appreciate it. No matter how things turn out, I do hope the two of us win.

[Deimos27]

Oromis:

Cult team is Norwee/clidd/drew. I am specifically confident about Norwee and Drew.
Norwee should be CL.
If Norwee flips non-CL cult, I wouldn't be that surprised. I think it'd mean clidd is less suspect but it's hard to explain why.

I also have no idea who could be CL aside from Norwee.

If Norwee flips town, that'd be a bit more surprising. I think in that scenario, I'd be even more confused and unsure. I think drew would still likely be cult though, clidd I'd be completely unsure.

In any case, I think TSE may be cult, but they'd have to be a convert.

Mohab, do you not see Drew as CL with Norwee? I understand if you think Norwee is likelier CL, but now it sounds like if he isn't CL you have no ideas at all for who else it might be.

[Deimos27]

Try formulating why non-CL Norwee makes clidd less susp. I think I might understand what you're getting at.

[Deimos27]

90% of the time when someone says “honestly...” it means the opposite.

Fun fact: 98% of statistics are false

[Deimos27]

You are misreading Oromis' posts. TSE needing to be CL has nothing to do with Oromis' tracker claim, and everything to do with how we would've

used

the tracker claim.
The inno on TSE almost only comes when TSE is the CL.

[Deimos27]

and everything to do with how

we

would've used the tracker claim.

he*

(This is a typo, not a scumslip.)

[Deimos27]

I believe he has ignored it.

[Deimos27]

Refer to my 773 for another reason why this is scum-AI.

[Deimos27]

Of all players in this game.
Why would you sheep Porkens.

[Deimos27]

I'm down to consolidate on Norwee but will wait a little while longer.

[Deimos27]

I wanted to test something, but I’ll wait a while.

Are you ready to reveal what this is all about yet?

[Deimos27]

So he did. I have received the mod pm.

[Deimos27]

I'm salty about the Norwee self hammer.
My cloutttt

[Deimos27]

I was roleplaying a paragon yesterday boys. Only thing I regret is becoming that indecisive towards the end of the day, instead of feigning 100% confidence in the CL!Norwee read. I'd have so much clout.

[Deimos27]

Anyway we're playing a nightless now and it's max 2 scum so we just townblock and chainlynch everyone else. Porkens is confirmed town and Oromis is very likely confirmed town. Which means I'm lynching something like Drew -> clidd -> Mohab -> TSE though the order can vary with those latter two.

[Deimos27]

CULTIST (RECRUITED)
Welcome, [Player Name]. You are now a Cultist , along with your partner(s), [Player Name] the Cult Leader, (and [Player Name] the [Role].)

Abilities:

You may talk with your allies at any given phase here [Link]

Each night phase, you may attempt to recruit somebody to the Cult. You will be informed if this is successful.

Win condition:

You win when the Cult obtain parity or when nothing can prevent this from occurring.

@Mod

, the bolded has to be just a copy-paste error, right?

[Deimos27]

VOTE: Drew

[Deimos27]

Also huge props to the towncore we fucking did it guys. Absolute woke town energy.

+1

[Deimos27]

Everyone should remember to ask for fast night as well.

[Deimos27]

Yup, I'm pretty sure the rest of this will be entirely mechanical. If both Drew and clidd flip town it's time for you to turn on your brain cells again for the 5p but I'd be really surprised if there isn't at least 1 scum in that pair.

[Deimos27]

I say "your" brain cells cause fmpov it's already autowin by blocking w/ Oromis/Porkens.

[Deimos27]

The vote I support is spiritually on Drew, but I don't intend to materialize it for now.

I do not intend to participate in any lynch outside of my primary scumread.

Not the most forceful effort at diverting a wagon I've ever seen.

[Deimos27]

Js drew was active on site around the time we put norwee at l-1 on d2. -koba

What are you inferring from this?

[Deimos27]

That makes sense. I also hypothesized that he's trying to mislead us into thinking that both teammates were already on the wagon or that our solve is wrong.

[Deimos27]

Niceeeee

[Deimos27]

A Finnish NBA player for the Chicago Bulls, Lauri Markkanen, is nicknamed "The Finnisher".

[Deimos27]

I don't recall Drew voting Norwee either. He too has been very conveniently apathetic about that wagon. At least one of those slots flips scum.

[Deimos27]

Well "apathetic" is maybe the wrong way to characterise the stances of both players but what I mean is mild distancing scumreads but no desire to vote/pressure/lynch the slot.

[Deimos27]

I’m just going to wait for affirmative confirmation that only cult leader can recruit before I vote

Fair.

[Deimos27]

I'd say that Porkens

should

keep open the possibility of going on me again at some point, once he is 100% clear to everyone, just to eliminate those few cases where this is scum!Oromis making nutty big brain guesses.

[Deimos27]

It's all just pedantic optimisation at this point to be honest, but yeah tonight go on someone new cause in theory from Oromis's POV for example this could still be Norwee/Porkens/Deimos with Porkens as PR.

[Deimos27]

also fast night everyone so we dont wait forever.

^^^^^^^^

[Deimos27]

Send a pm just in case y'all.

[Deimos27]

VOTE: clidd
So which of you buggers didn't fast night?

[Deimos27]

My bet is on clidd.

[Deimos27]

also mafia please just forfeit because its literally autowin.

+1

[Deimos27]

Btw I want to give major props to TSE who was, I'm pretty sure, the first player to call out exactly Norwee + Drew.

[Deimos27]

That game was definity memorable. What a D2.
I wouldn't mind playing with any of you again.

[Deimos27]

I think it was either TSE or, ironically, Clidd himself.

TSE also low-key fire for holding the line on the Norway CL read when we were thinking about switching to Drew. Game winning moves

~joq

You're right, it was clidd that mentioned it first, though not as his main read.

[Deimos27]

I thought you were great, though maybe my perspective is being distorted by the fact that I could clear you mechanically through Oromis.

[Deimos27]

So it was less annoying

[Deimos27]

I’m a pro at solving alignments and roles.
Not so good at convincing others to lynch them or that someone is a mislynch bait.

Up that activity and case your solves more; you'll be set.

[Deimos27]

Identifying the cult wasn't actually the toughest part. I thought reading for CL between Norway and Drew was a genuinely difficult solve, though.

Agreed.

[Deimos27]

Scum PT when?

[Deimos27]

We still waiting for this reply?

[Deimos27]

Felt cult-sided, but I could be biased and am certainly no expert on balance.